Aviation is committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, including the air cargo sector. At the World Cargo Symposium, Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist and SVP, Sustainability, put this challenge into context.
In 2023, the world produced some 37.4 gigatons of CO2, 59 gigatons including all greenhouse gases. Aviation’s share of this is just 2% while transport’s total contribution is 23%. Transport’s CO2 output comes mainly from road vehicles, which produces more than 70% of its total, followed by shipping.
“We must do something about our emissions, but we must also keep our perspective,” said Thomsen.
She said the industry will certainly need all the levers available to it to achieve net zero by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will be the primary tool, but efficiency gains, hydrogen power, and carbon removal technologies are among the many other initiatives that will need to play an important role.
The demand side of SAF is proven with airlines already purchasing every drop ever produced while forward agreements total close to $50 billion. The challenge is on the supply side. SAF production must increase a thousand-fold to meet anticipated demand in 2050, going from some 0.5 million tons today to 500 million tons.
Thomsen stressed that this increase must be achieved in just 26 years and called on the oil and gas industry to change its tune when it comes to aviation and renewable fuels.
Most of the oil and gas industries’ money goes on investment, such as new drilling, debt repayment, and dividends. Less than 3% is spent on renewable fuels. Moreover, aviation fuel is just 8% of refinery output.
In 2023, some $800 billion was invested in oil and gas, which is estimated to be twice the necessary amount to meet their needs. In contrast, aviation’s energy transition requires about $150 billion a year or just 19% of what the oil and gas industries get. In short, the oil and gas industries could do a lot more to help air transport transition to renewable energy.
As SAF production ramps up, air cargo can continue to reduce its CO2 emissions through new fleet. The average age of the cargo fleet is 25 years, almost twice that of the passenger sector. This is delaying CO2 reduction as older aircraft burn more fuel and so produce more emissions.
Improvements can also be made in single-use plastics (SUP), such as plastic covers, bubble wrap, labels, and pouches to name but a few. Fortunately, an IATA survey reveals that 42% of air cargo stakeholders have already adopted reusable alternatives to SUP.
Meanwhile, in her presentation, Grace Cheung, General Manager Sustainability, Cathay Pacific Airways, highlighted another aspect of sustainability that often gets neglected in debates; the need to address it because of the potential risk to aviation business.
The data is clear that, depending on the extent of the average temperature increase, the world will likely experience more extreme weather events. Cheung called on airlines to review locations at high risk of flooding, sea level rise or increased hurricane / cyclone / typhoon activity.
She suggested airlines should work closely with their partners to do scenario planning so that an organization can address the potential impact of an extreme weather event and continue to thrive in an uncertain future.
