With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will be relegated from the Bundesliga, according to the bookmakers.
Team | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
Cologne | 1/500 | 99.80% |
Mainz | 2/1 | 33.33% |
Union Berlin | 10/3 | 23.08% |
Bochum | 25/1 | 3.85% |
Borussia Mgladbach | 250/1 | 0.40% |
As of 12 August 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to be relegated from the Bundesliga is Cologne, best priced at 1/500 with bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Cologne to be relegated is 99.80%.
The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga - at the end of the season - are immediately relegated while two teams from 2. Bundesliga are promoted. The third and final relegation, as well as promotion, is decided by a two-legged play-off game. Along with Ligue 1, the Bundesliga is the only one of the top five leagues to have such a system, with the others having three immediate-relegation spots.
This means that even if a team finishes the season in 16th place, with the Bundesliga being an 18-team league instead of 20, the team in question could still play in the top flight for next season. Bochum won the play-off against Düsseldorf in 2023/24 after penalty shootout drama. Incredibly enough, both teams won their respective away games 3-0, resulting in the stalemate.