It is still the quiet part of the NFL schedule before the start of training camps, but we have plenty of hot topics from fans in this week’s mailbag.
Bill Gordon from North Buffalo asks: How come Jack Kemp isn’t a Pro Football Hall of Famer, and what’s your view on his worthiness?
Mark: Kemp would have been 89 years old on July 13, and he is worthy of consideration as a senior candidate to the hall.
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Quarterback Jack Kemp, throwing deep in a game against the Houston Oilers, directed the Bills to American Football League championships in 1964 and 1965.
Let’s review the case for Kemp. He quarterbacked teams to the AFL championship game five times in the first six years of the league. He won with the Bills in 1964 and 1965. He lost in the title game in ’60 and ’61 with the Chargers and in ’66 with the Bills. He was the title game MVP in ’64 and ’65. He was the AFL MVP for the ’65 season. He was 65-37-3 as a starter, which speaks to his greatness as a field general and leader. He has the most total passing yards in AFL history with 21,218.
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Kemp had big-time arm talent. He had a cannon and was a superb downfield passer. He led the AFL in yards per attempt in ’60 and ’64, was second in ’61 and third in ’63.
Another strength: Kemp was a fine runner. He scored 40 career rushing touchdowns, second in pro football history at the time of his retirement behind Otto Graham’s 44. Now Kemp is fifth in career QB rushing TDs (Cam Newton is first with 75, Josh Allen second with 53).
My opinion is Kemp is in the “Hall of Great,” but is not a Hall of Famer. My biggest reason is Greater Buffalo Sports Hall of Fame sportswriter Larry Felser never strongly advocated for Kemp to be enshrined. Felser liked and greatly respected Kemp, but didn’t think he quite made the grade. Felser’s mission was to get guard Billy Shaw elected, which happened in 1999.
The No. 1 reason the Bills won back-to-back titles was their great defense, which led the league in fewest points allowed in ’64, ’65 and ’66. The best element of the ’64 offense was the rushing game, which ranked No. 1 thanks to Cookie Gilchrist. Kemp was brilliant amid a slew of offensive injuries in ’65. But again, the defense led the way, and the passing game ranked seventh (out of eight) in the AFL. Kemp was ninth, sixth and seventh in passer rating index in the AFL from ’64 to ’66.
The Buffalo-area voter on the Hall of Fame selection committee is Greater Buffalo Sports Hall of Famer Vic Carucci. Carucci is a strong supporter of Kemp’s candidacy, for all the positive reasons outlined above. The Hall of Fame is subjective. The pool of senior candidates is deep, but Kemp still has a shot.
Campers ages 6 to 16 spent a few hours on the field running through different drills, and even getting to play some seven-on-seven with Cook, who played quarterback throughout the day.
Ed Helinski asks: What’s your opinion on why Shaq Lawson hasn’t been signed by the Buffalo Bills or anyone else? Has his ship sailed and his pro football career gone kaput?
Mark: Lawson played 30% of the defensive snaps last season and managed just one sack. He is 30. He still can play. NFL teams could do worse than him, but he is a No. 5 defensive end at this point, and hasn’t been as effective as he was in 2019 in Buffalo when he had a career-best 6.5 sacks.
Lawson is a stout edge defender against the run. The Bills essentially replaced him – and they hope upgraded a bit – when they gave a one-year contract to Dawuane Smoot. He is 29 and 6-foot-3, 275 pounds. Big. He had between five and six sacks for four straight years from 2019 to 2022. He had just one sack for Jacksonville last year while playing 30% of the snaps.
The position is looked at as a strength of the roster heading into the 2024 season, which will be offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s first full season on the job in Buffalo.
The Bills face some tough rushing teams this season, starting with the opener against Arizona, which was fourth last year in rushing. Baltimore, Miami, Indianapolis (probably), Detroit and San Francisco are other tough run teams on the schedule. The Bills are going to need the stout Smoot on the edge in those games, especially. Expect Smoot and Casey Toohill to rotate between No. 4 and No. 5 at defensive end, depending on the matchup.
Jeffrey Miller asks: A non-Bills question, but certainly in their interest. What is the contract situation with Travis Kelce? How much does he make and for how long? Because the Chiefs have so much vested in Patrick Mahomes, as the Bills have with Josh Allen, will they be able to afford him “perpetually?” And at what sacrifice to the rest of the team? Of course, you know what answer I’d like to see.
Mark: You’ll be happy to know Kelce turns 35 on Oct. 5. You’ll be unhappy to know great tight ends Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten were mostly great through their age-37 season. Antonio Gates started to tail off at age 35. Shannon Sharpe was great through his final season at age 35.
Kelce had 93 catches last season, third-most among tight ends. He’s making $17 million a year, tops at the position, and his deal runs through 2025.
Kelce’s contract is a bargain, because he is the No. 1 weapon in the offense. So while his contract is big, it is relative peanuts compared with wide receivers who are by far the No. 1 target in their offenses. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson averages $35 million a year. Cleveland’s Amari Cooper, the 20th-highest paid wide receiver according to Spotrac.com, makes $20 million a year. Jacksonville’s Gabe Davis makes $13 million a year, tied for 28th.
You could argue that the value they’re getting from their No. 1 receiving weapon puts them $10 million to the good versus most other teams in the league. (This also is a reason why if Dalton Kincaid can keep ascending, he could be a big, long-term value for the Bills, even on a second contract. But that’s a story for a year or two from now.) The Chiefs easily could get out of the Kelce deal after this season, but why? It is far more likely he has another good year and they extend him.
There s a better chance that Kelce has age-related injury issues the next couple years than he becomes cost-prohibitive to the Chiefs. But that is probably wishful thinking for Bills fans. Kelce has missed five games in the last 10 years.
As the No. 3 tight end on the active roster, Morris has to be prepared to step in for either Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid, who are used in different ways.
Eric Kollig asks: Straight up, do you think Josh Allen will win Buffalo its first Super Bowl? And: Was there one commonality that stopped the 1990s Bills from winning one? Or was it individual differences each year?
Mark: I’d be lying if I told you my crystal ball is any better than yours on the Super Bowl over the next 10 years. As long as Allen is healthy, the Bills should be in the hunt to win the AFC title for the next eight years or so. Let’s talk short term. If you told me Von Miller or Greg Rousseau were getting 12 sacks this year, I would say the bar for the Bills is making the Super Bowl. The Bills will be in good cap shape in 2025. I’d say their Super Bowl chances will be even better in 2025 than 2024.
As for the Super Bowls, how much time do you have? The biggest reason they didn’t win Super Bowl XXV was their defense played a bad game against a bland offense, which stayed on the field 40 minutes. If the defense gets just one more third-down stop, the Bills probably win. After that, the Bills’ defense was inferior to great opposition defenses. The Bills’ defense ranked 19th, 14th and fifth in points allowed the last three Super Bowl seasons (and were 27th in yards in 1991 and 1993). The opposing teams’ defenses ranked second, fifth and second in points allowed those three years. (The Giants were first in 1990). The Bills couldn’t stop the Cowboys’ power-run game. In fairness, Dallas had one of the greatest running backs and offensive lines of all time. Give the Bills credit for getting past Dan Marino (twice) and John Elway in the absolute prime of their careers from 1990 to ’92.
The middle three is looking just as stout if not stouter this season. Connor McGovern moves over to center to replace Mitch Morse, and David Edwards takes over at left guard.
Edward Doody asks: Do you know if the new Bills field will be big enough to host major international soccer events? Would they be able to lay sod over the turf? It would be nice to have a USA venue that is not also a home crowd for team Mexico.
Mark: It would be big enough. Numerous NFL stadiums also host MLS teams, including Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Soldier Field in Chicago. The international requirement is 110 to 120 yards long by 70 to 80 yards wide. The NFL field is 120 yards by 53.5 yards. (Actually, the FIFA “recommendation” is 114 by 74 yards, but there’s wiggle room.) New Highmark Stadium will have natural grass. We’d be talking a North American (CONCACAF) match or an international friendly. Whether Buffalo would or could lure such an event – given there are 27 MLS markets with a far better track record of supporting soccer – is uncertain.
Eric Tichy asks: Is it just me or do Bills receivers with Allen not have a lot of YAC? So often it seems receivers have to make a play for the ball rather than make a catch in stride and rack up yards afterward.
The Bills love what they saw last season from Connor McGovern, who they signed in March 2023 as a prime free-agent acquisition from Dallas. And while McGovern gives Morse proper respect, he has no apprehension about moving from guard to center this season. “I would say center is my natural position,” McGovern said. “So it’s just going back home.”
Mark: The answer is yes. In 2021, Brain Daboll’s last year as coordinator, the Bills were 32nd in average YAC yards per catch (4.2), according to Sportradar. In 2022, they were 26th in total yards after catch and 26th in YAC yards per catch (4.37).
It got better last year. The Bills improved to 15th in total yards after catch with 2,046, according to Pro Football Focus and ranked tied for 20th in YAC yards per catch (5.1).
The Bills got better receiving production out of running back James Cook, tight end Dalton Kincaid and slot receiver Khalil Shakir. Stefon Diggs led the Bills in YAC, but his total was just about the same as the previous year.
Cook had 405 yards after catch, compared with 259 by Devin Singletary in 2022. Cook’s YAC per reception was 9.2, 12th best among backs with at least 20 catches.
Shakir had 286 yards after the catch and an average of 7.3 yards after catch per reception. That ranked third best in the NFL among any wideout with at least 20 catches. Kincaid had 104 more yards of YAC than Dawson Knox did in 2022.
YAC isn’t the ultimate goal, of course. Cole Beasley in his prime didn’t get a lot of YAC, but he got such great separation, it far outweighed his modest YAC totals. Still, you’d like to be at least in the middle of the pack.
Thank you for all the questions this week!
Mark Gaughan and Katherine Fitzgerald have a playful discussion as they run through a series of hot topics surrounding the Bills before training camp in Rochester at the end of July. Mark and Katherine discuss position battles, players to watch and share their thoughts on some players they have been able to speak to before preparation for the 2024 season begins.
The PlayAction podcast is fueled by Picasso’s Pizza.