日本東京都知事選舉,一場民主「鬧劇」?
Is This Vibrant Democracy in Japan, or Has the Circus Come to Town?
![展示東京都知事候選人的選舉海報。](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/07/07/multimedia/07japan-governor01sub-wpch/07japan-governor01sub-wpch-master1050.jpg)
When voters in Tokyo cast their ballot for governor of the world’s largest city on Sunday, they were spoiled for choice.
週日,當東京選民投票選舉世界最大城市的知事時,他們的選項有很多。
Fifty-six candidates contended for the office, a record. One who styled himself “the Joker” proposed legalizing marijuana and said polygamy could address the nation’s declining birthrate. Another was a pro wrestler who hid his face on camera and vowed to use artificial intelligence to complete governmental tasks. There was a 96-year-old inventor who said he would deploy gas-fueled cars that do not emit carbon, and a 31-year-old entrepreneur who took off her shirt during a campaign video and promised “fun things.”
共有56名候選人角逐該職位,創下了紀錄。一個自稱「小丑」的人提議大麻合法化,並表示一夫多妻制可以解決國家出生率下降的問題。另一位是職業摔跤手,他在鏡頭前隱藏了自己的臉,誓言要用人工智慧來完成政府任務。一位96歲的發明家表示,他將推出不排放碳的汽油燃料汽車,還有一位31歲的企業家在競選影片中脫下襯衫,承諾要做「有趣的事」。
It might look like democracy run amok. But in fact, the race was profoundly status quo, and the incumbent, Yuriko Koike, as expected, won a third term.
這看起來像是民主失控了。但事實上,這場競選完全維持了現狀,現任知事小池百合子不出所料地贏得了第三個任期。
Ms. Koike’s victory provided a much-needed shot in the arm for the governing Liberal Democratic Party, which had backed her in the race. Approval ratings have been falling for the party, and the Tokyo governor’s election was viewed in part as a referendum on the national government’s popularity.
小池的勝利為支持她參選的執政黨自民黨注入了一劑急需的強心針。自民黨的支持率一直在下降,東京都知事的選舉在一定程度上被視為對日本政府民望的全民公決。
廣告
The proliferation of candidates could reflect fatigue with politics as usual, but many of the hopefuls were also unserious attention seekers, creating a farcical, circuslike atmosphere and putting real change further out of reach.
候選人的激增可能反映出人們對政治一如既往的厭倦,但許多隻為了獲得關注的參選者並不是真心競選,這就製造了一種鬧劇般的氣氛,使得真正的變革更加遙不可及。
“I wonder if this is democracy in action, or whether it’s like an ‘up yours’ to democracy,” said Emma Dalton, a senior lecturer in Japanese Studies at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia. Multiple candidates have criticized the incumbent, Ms. Koike, “in the most vulgar way,” said Ms. Dalton, speaking before the election. “Because they know she’s going to win.”
澳洲墨爾本樂卓博大學日本研究高級講師艾瑪·道爾頓說:「我不知道這究竟是民主在發揮作用,還是在對民主說『去你的吧』。」多名候選人以「最粗俗的方式」批評了現任知事小池百合子。「因為他們知道她會贏,」道爾頓在選舉前說。
![現任東京都知事小池百合子上週六發表演講。她很有可能贏得連任。](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/07/07/multimedia/07japan-governor-02-lpcq/07japan-governor-02-lpcq-master1050.jpg)
The Tokyo election was emblematic of Japanese politics, where at the national level the Liberal Democrats have governed for all but four years since 1955. The party has held an iron grip on Japan’s Parliament, despite numerous scandals and widespread voter dissatisfaction that is expressed in polls but rarely at the ballot box.
東京的選舉是日本政治的縮影。自1955年以來,在全國範圍內,自民黨除四年以外一直執政。自民黨一直牢牢控制著日本議會,儘管有許多醜聞,選民也普遍在民意調查中表達不滿,但很少在投票時體現出來。
Ms. Koike, 71, was dogged by questions about her university credentials and refused to address accusations that she is connected to a large real estate developer involved in several controversial projects. But just as the Liberal Democrats stay in power despite low approval ratings, she may have benefited from a feeling that there was no need to upset the apple cart at a time of relative prosperity.
今年71歲的小池百合子的大學學歷一直受到質疑,她拒絕回應有關她與一家大型房地產開發商有關聯的指控,該開發商參與了幾個有爭議的項目。但是,正如自民黨在低支持率的情況下仍然繼續執政一樣,她也可能受益於一種感覺——在相對繁榮的時期,沒有必要製造麻煩。
Despite some widening inequality and pockets of poverty, “most middle-class citizens are satisfied with their lives in Tokyo,” said Jiro Yamaguchi, a political scientist at Hosei University in Tokyo.
東京法政大學政治學家山口二郎說,儘管不平等和貧困現象在不斷擴大,「大多數中產階級公民對他們在東京的生活感到滿意。」
Although Ms. Koike has not entirely delivered on promises to eliminate day care waiting lists, reduce commuter train congestion and abolish overtime among municipal workers, she has used a budget surplus to provide subsidies for families with children and free tuition to private high schools in the city.
雖然小池百合子沒有完全兌現解決日托中心名額有限問題、減少通勤列車壅堵和取消市政工人加班的承諾,但她利用預算盈餘為有孩子的家庭提供補貼,並提供入讀該市私立高中的學費。
廣告
Ms. Koike did not grant an interview request. Mitsui Fudosan, the developer involved in the building projects, said in an email that it had “no close relationship” with the governor and had not “been provided any special favors.”
小池百合子拒絕了採訪請求。參與爭議建築項目的開發商三井不動產在電子郵件中表示,該公司與知事「沒有密切關係」,也沒有「得到任何特殊照顧」。
At first, Ms. Koike seemed to face a serious challenge: Renho Saito, 56, a former leader of Japan’s largest opposition party, stepped down from her parliamentary seat to run. But the lineup of so many candidates distracted from her campaign.
起初,小池百合子似乎面臨著嚴峻的挑戰:日本最大反對黨前黨魁、56歲的蓮舫辭去了議會席位,準備參加競選。但是眾多候選人分散了對她的關注。
![蓮舫(中)是日本最大反對黨的前領導人。她辭去了議員職位,向小池百合子發起挑戰。](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/07/07/world/07japan-governor03/07japan-governor03-master1050.jpg)
As the first woman to lead the opposition Democratic Party, Ms. Saito is well known in Japan. She sought to distinguish herself from Ms. Koike by emphasizing the need to raise wages for young workers and to rein in government spending. But she also criticized the national party for financial scandals that have little to do with the Tokyo governorship.
作為反對黨的首位女黨魁,蓮舫在日本家喻戶曉。她試圖強調提高年輕工人工資和控制政府支出的必要性,從而將自己與小池百合子區分開來。但她也批評了與東京都知事無關的自民黨金融醜聞。
Focusing on the national party is “an easy cudgel,” said Kenneth McElwain, a political scientist at the University of Tokyo. The danger is that “it’s a reason not to vote for Koike, but it’s also a reason to vote for any of the 50-odd challengers.”
東京大學的政治學家肯尼斯·麥克爾韋恩說,把注意力集中在自民黨身上是個「省事的辦法」。危險在於,「這是不投票給小池的理由,但也是投票給50多個挑戰者中任何一個的理由。」
Other candidates took swings at the national government. Yusuke Kawai, who appeared in a campaign video on NHK, the public broadcaster, with stringy hair, face whitened and lips smeared red in a caricature of the Joker from the Batman franchise, lambasted Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for his plans to raise taxes.
其他候選人也對國家政府進行了抨擊。河合悠佑在公共廣播公司NHK的競選影片中出現,頭髮蓬亂,臉塗成白色,嘴唇塗成紅色,模仿《蝙蝠俠》系列中的小丑,猛烈抨擊日本首相岸田文雄的增稅計劃。
“Prime Minister, before you raise taxes, make sure you sell that Rolex on your wrist!” he screeched, cackling maniacally and writhing on a desk.
「首相,在你增稅之前,一定要把你手腕上的勞力士賣掉!」他尖叫道,狂笑著在桌子上扭動。
廣告
Campaign rules allow anyone who pays a deposit of about $19,000 to run for governor, and give each candidate two six-minute slots on NHK and the right to post signs on one of 14,000 official election billboards across the city.
競選規則允許任何支付了約1.9萬美元保證金的人競選知事,並給予每位候選人兩個六分鐘的NHK播出時段,還有權在全市14000個官方競選廣告牌中的一個牌子上張貼標語。
Although the intent is to level the playing field for political participation, the system has been hijacked by people who want to reach a large audience with messages that might have little to do with politics.
儘管這樣做的目的是為政治參與創造公平的競爭環境,但這個體系卻被一些人用來向大量聽眾傳達與政治無關的信息。
![「大多數中產階級對他們在東京的生活感到滿意,」東京法政大學的政治學家山口二郎說。](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/07/07/multimedia/07japan-governor-03-lpcq/07japan-governor-03-lpcq-master1050.jpg)
During a campaign broadcast on NHK, Airi Uchino, the young entrepreneur, removed a striped, button-down shirt to reveal her cleavage in a cream-colored tube top. “I’m not just cute,” she purred, inviting prospective voters to connect with her on Line, Japan’s popular messaging app. “I’m sexy, right?”
在NHK播出的一場競選活動中,年輕的企業家內野愛裡脫下條紋紐扣襯衫,露出乳白色背心下的乳溝。「我不僅可愛,」她低聲柔和地說,邀請潛在的選民在日本流行的即時通訊應用Line上與她聯繫。「我還性感,對吧?」
Ms. Uchino is backed by the Party to Protect the People from NHK, a renegade group that is supporting close to half of those running for governor. The group has permitted its candidates and some others to post campaign posters featuring photos of cats or cartoon animals on the official election signboards.
內野愛裡得到了「保護人民免受NHK侵害黨」的支持,這是一個叛逆的組織,支持近一半的知事候選人。該組織允許其候選人和其他一些人在官方選舉招牌上張貼印有貓或卡通動物照片的競選海報。
Some candidates have used airtime to advance general opinions, such as opposing welfare benefits for foreign workers in Japan or transgender rights.
一些候選人利用直播時間發表一般性意見,比如反對在日外國工人的福利待遇,或者反對變性人的權利。
The sheer volume of candidates can muffle serious opposition. With all paid advertising banned, said Jeffrey J. Hall, a lecturer in politics at Kanda University of International Studies, “mainstream candidates can’t amplify their messages to the point where they drown out the voices of the minor candidates.”
候選人的數量之多足以壓制強烈的反對聲音。神田外語大學政治學講師傑弗里·霍爾說,由於所有付費廣告都被禁止,「主流候選人無法將自己的信息放大到能夠淹沒小候選人聲音的程度。」
廣告
The disruption is evident. In polling, Ms. Saito appeared to be battling for second place with Shinji Ishimaru, 41, a former mayor of a city in Hiroshima Prefecture who described himself as an “idol” to supporters at a rally last week.
這種做法帶來的干擾是顯而易見的。在民意調查中,蓮舫似乎要與41歲的石丸伸二爭奪第二名。石丸是廣島縣某市的前知事,他在上週的一次集會上說自己是支持者們的「偶像」。
Mr. Ishimaru has not offered much of a platform, but his popularity on TikTok and YouTube helped him win support from younger voters, and he came in second to Ms. Koike.
石丸拿不出什麼競選綱領,但他在TikTok和YouTube上的人氣幫助他贏得了年輕選民的支持,他的得票率僅次於小池百合子。
![上月在東京的一場競選活動。競選規則允許任何支付了約1.9萬美元保證金的人競選知事。](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/07/07/multimedia/07japan-governor05-lwvq/07japan-governor05-lwvq-master1050.jpg)
Such candidates represent Japan’s breed of populism, said Koichi Nakano, a political scientist at Sophia University in Tokyo, adding that many of the “frivolouscandidates” don’t expect to win.
東京上智大學的政治學家中野晃一說,這樣的候選人代表了日本的民粹主義。他還說,許多「不正經候選人」並不指望獲勝。
“This is a day where notoriety is business,” Mr. Nakano said. “Having fame of any kind is going to lead to more business opportunities.”
「在這個時代,名聲就是生意,」中野晃一說。「擁有任何形式的名氣都會帶來更多商機。」
As someone trying to lead a serious challenge, Ms. Saito faced voters driven less by support for her than by their loss of interest in the current governor.
作為一個試圖領導一場嚴峻挑戰的人,蓮舫面對的選民與其說是支持她,不如說是對現任知事失去了興趣。
Yumi Matsushita, a university lecturer attending one of Ms. Saito’s rallies in Chofu, said she did not like that Ms. Koike “does not respect” the voices of those from other ethnicities or L.G.B.T.Q. people.
參加了蓮舫在調布市舉行的一場集會的大學講師松下由美(音)說,她不喜歡小池百合子「不尊重」其他種族或LGBTQ人群的態度。
廣告
But her real objection to Ms. Koike was that “a third term is too long.”
但她反對小池百合子的真正理由是「三個任期也太長了」。
As the incumbent, Ms. Koike had a large advantage: No previous occupant of the office had lost an election. She also benefited from a largely compliant news media. Though it has dug into rumors that she misrepresented her graduation from Cairo University, it has not investigated allegations that she has favored Mitsui Fudosan, the developer, in construction contracts.
作為現任知事,小池百合子有很大的優勢:從未有在任知事在選舉中失敗過。她還得益於新聞媒體的順從。媒體雖然對她謊報開羅大學畢業學歷的傳言進行了調查,但沒有調查有關她在建築合同中偏袒開發商三井不動產的指控。
One possible reason: Two of the country’s largest newspapers, the Yomiuri Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun, are investing in one of those building projects.
一個可能的原因是,日本最大的兩家報紙《讀賣新聞》和《朝日新聞》都投資了其中一個建築項目。