Hours after the presidential debate, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said that his boss didn’t bother to watch. Mr. Peskov even scoffed at the notion: The Russian president could hardly be expected to set his alarm to watch the broadcast in the middle of the night in Moscow. In any case, he added, the debate was America’s internal affair. But judging by the wave of propaganda that immediately followed on Russian television, Mr. Putin was, indeed, paying attention.

美国大选辩论结束几小时后，俄罗斯总统普京的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示，他的上司没工夫看这场电视辩论。佩斯科夫甚至嘲笑了普京会看辩论的想法，他说，很难指望俄罗斯总统会设置闹钟观看这场莫斯科午夜时间开始的电视直播。他补充说，不管怎样，大选辩论是美国的内政。但从俄罗斯电视台在辩论结束后不久播放的一轮宣传来看，普京确实在关心这件事。

For Russia’s leader, like his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, the crisis in American leadership that crystallized for the world to see onstage last week was a gift — the perfect opportunity for their governments to re-up the narrative of America’s imminent collapse they’ve been pushing. By engendering uncertainty about American global leadership, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi believe they can reorder the world in a way that amplifies their countries’ international influence at Washington’s expense and helps preserve their grip on power.

对俄罗斯领导人以及中国国家主席习近平来说，美国上周向全世界清晰展现的领导人危机是份大礼，为两国政府提供了一个绝佳机会来重申他们一直在推动的美国即将崩溃的叙事。通过激发出关于美国全球领导地位的不确定性，普京和习近平认为他们能重塑世界秩序，以美国为代价增强本国的国际影响力，并且帮助维护他们对权力的掌控。

Russia’s state-owned Channel One covered the debate in depth, describing President Biden and Donald Trump as “small children from the nursery.” As Russian viewers were treated to replays of the candidates bickering over who was the better golfer, the presenter predicted that life itself in America would become “one never-ending game of golf,” with the United States lurching “from one big hole to the next.”

作为俄罗斯的国家电视台，第一频道深入报道了这场辩论，将拜登和特朗普描述为“托儿所里的小孩”。随着电视台将两名候选人争论谁的高尔夫打得更好的片段重放给俄罗斯观众，主持人预言，随着美国“从一个大洞滚向另一个大洞”，美国人的生活将变成“一场没完没了的高尔夫球运动”。

China’s official commentary was more reserved. The state media briefly summarized the debate, also focusing on the barbs and the insults. Beijing’s Global Times mouthpiece quoted an anonymous American voter saying, “There must be something wrong with the system,” and another claiming that the U.S. democracy was failing.

中国的官方评论则更加克制。官媒简要地总结了这场辩论，但也把注意力放在了候选人的相互挖苦和侮辱上。政府喉舌《环球时报》引用一名不具名的美国选民的话说，“这个制度肯定出了问题”，另一名选民则宣称，美国民主制度正在走向失败。

This is all part of the long game for Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, who for years have sought to counter accusations that their regimes are tyrannies by attacking American democracy. They have tried to plant the idea among their own people and their sympathizers in the West and developing nations that the United States is not a democracy at all but a dysfunctional oligarchy in terminal decline.

这都是普京和习近平的长远策略的一部分，多年来，他们一直攻击美国的民主制度，试图以此来反驳人们关于他们的政权是暴政的指控。他们试图在本国人民，以及他们在西方和发展中国家的同情者当中灌输一个观念：美国根本就不民主，而是机能失调的寡头政治，正在无可挽回地走向衰落。

In February 2022, a few weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi signed a statement claiming that Russia and China had “deep democratic traditions, based on a thousand years of development,” and criticized certain unnamed countries (read: the United States) for attempting to impose their own version of the political system on others in a way that “undermines democracy and discards its spirit and true values.”

2022年2月，就在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的几周前，普京和习近平签署了一份联合声明，宣称俄罗斯和中国的“深厚民主传统根植于千年发展经验”，并批评了某个未指明的国家（即美国）试图将自己的政治制度强加于其他国家，称那是“对民主精神和真正民主价值的背叛”。

The debate offered fresh grist for this longstanding campaign. From Beijing’s and Moscow’s perspectives, it doesn’t matter who won that night or who lost. What matters is to demonstrate that the American elections in November will be a farce, in which voters are being duped into choosing between two equally unpalatable options.

美国的大选辩论为他们的这场长期运动提供了新鲜的素材。从中俄的角度来看，那晚的辩论谁赢谁输并不重要。重要的是要表明今年11月的美国大选将是一场闹剧，选民们上当了，他们只能在两个同样让人难以接受的候选人之间做出选择。

Their tactics may be effective in the short term. Prophecies of America’s implosion have already fed anxiety among U.S. partners and allies. European leaders live in dread of a potential Trump-led American undermining of NATO, trying desperately to Trump-proof Europe against such an unfortunate eventuality by developing an E.U.-wide defense industrial strategy and considering whether to appoint an E.U. defense commissioner. A second term for Mr. Biden poses its own security risks, as it’s unclear whether he has the stamina to lead in an increasingly uncertain and dangerous world.

普京和习近平的策略也许在短期内有效。美国崩溃的预言已在美国的伙伴和盟友中加剧了焦虑感。欧洲领导人们整天提心吊胆，生怕美国可能在特朗普领导下削弱北约，他们正在迫不及待地试图防止欧洲在美国大选出现不幸结局的情况下遭受特朗普上台的影响，做法包括发展欧盟范围的国防工业战略，以及考虑是否任命一名欧盟国防专员。拜登的第二个任期也自有安全风险，目前还不清楚他是否有精力领导这个日益不确定和危险的世界。

A deeper question is embedded in the doubts America’s adversaries are sowing. If the two leading presidential candidates have nothing better to do than to spar over who is the better golfer, where does this leave America’s vision for the world? Is America still the shining city upon a hill, or is its prolonged political malaise a sign that something is burning down? It’s hard to tell from the outside looking in. But Beijing and Moscow are fanning the flames and presenting themselves as ready to step in when the nation that led the world through the 20th century retreats into itself.

一个更深层次的问题镶嵌在美国的对手们正在散布的疑虑中。如果这两名主要的总统候选人除了争论谁的高尔夫打得更好之外无事可做的话，这对美国的世界视野来说意味着什么？美国仍是耀眼的山巅之城吗？还是其长期的政治问题预示着内部已有将其焚毁的火苗？从外部看很难说。但北京和莫斯科正在煽风点火，并在20世纪引领世界的美国向内部退缩的时候做出了随时准备介入的姿态。

There is, however, a profound flaw in the story Russia and China are selling. The disturbing sight of the American presidential debate immediately spurred a broad political conversation in the United States — the kind that would never be possible in China or Russia. These two autocracies are also run by aging men, but unlike Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump, they are entirely insulated from criticism, face no opposition and may very well rule their countries until they die.

但是，俄罗斯和中国正在推动的叙事中存在巨大的错误。美国大选辩论令人不安的情景马上在美国引发了一场广泛的政治对话，而在中国或俄罗斯永远不可能发生这种对话。这两个威权国家也由上了年纪的男人管理，但与拜登或特朗普不同的是，他们与批评完全隔绝，没有人反对他们，而且他们很可能一直统治国家直至去世。

Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, both 71 years old, may delight in the advanced age of America’s leading presidential candidates, but they are fast approaching old age themselves. The difference is that no one will ever openly suggest they should step aside. They will hang on to power unchallenged, even if their regimes stagnate and wither. Mr. Putin’s criminal war in Ukraine, which has cost Russia billions of dollars while making it overreliant on China, and Mr. Xi’s disastrous Covid policies that sapped business confidence and lengthened China’s recovery, are just two recent examples of their dreadful leadership for which they have faced no meaningful domestic political repercussions.

普京和习近平都已71岁，美国主要的总统候选人的高龄也许使他们感到高兴，但他们自己也正在逼近暮年。与美国不同的是，没有人会公开建议他们下台。他们将不受挑战地继续掌权，即使他们的政权停滞不前甚至逐渐衰退。普京对乌克兰发动的罪恶战争已使俄罗斯耗费了数十亿美元，同时使其过度依赖中国。习近平应对新冠病毒大流行的灾难性政策削弱了商业信心，延缓了中国的经济复苏。这只是他们糟糕领导力的两个最近例子，他们并未因此面临任何重大的国内政治后果。

China’s and Russia’s problems do not end there. Unlike democracies, which can set constraints on the powers of the executive in the form of term limits, autocracies, of course, do not. That makes younger leaders a different but equally dangerous threat. Joseph Stalin was just 58 in 1937 when he unleashed bloody purges, killing hundreds of thousands of his countrymen. China’s Mao Zedong started his murderous Great Leap Forward in 1958 when he was just 64. When they died, they left their nations in miserable messes that took years to sort out. The Soviets found themselves in such a deep morass by the early 1980s that their system proved unreformable, leading to a complete meltdown in 1991. Chinese citizens survived decades of political upheaval and unrest, only to find themselves under the thumb of another aging autocrat today.

中国和俄罗斯的问题不只是这些。民主国家可以通过任期限制对行政权力进行约束，而专制国家当然不能这样做。这让年轻的领导人成为一个不同但同样危险的威胁。斯大林1937年发动血腥的大清洗时只有58岁，数十万俄罗斯人在大清洗中被杀害。毛泽东1958年发动导致千万人死亡的大跃进时只有64岁。他们死后，国家都陷入了痛苦的困境，花了多年时间才走出来。苏联在20世纪80年代初陷入了如此之深的泥潭，以至于体制变得无法改革，最终在1991年彻底崩溃。中国人民经历了数十年的政治动荡和骚乱，如今却发现自己又落入一名年迈的专制者控制之下。

America, by contrast, has so far managed to bounce back from its deepest crises. The civil rights struggle and the antiwar demonstrations of the 1960s generated intense polarization in American society. Then came Watergate, with its shocking revelations of corruption and conspiracy at the very heart of American power. Skyrocketing oil prices spurred a recession in the mid-1970s, and the American defeat in Vietnam delivered a grave blow to the United States’ global prestige, from which many thought the country would never recover.

相比之下，美国到目前为止已成功地从其最严重的危机中恢复过来。20世纪60年代的民权斗争和反越战示威活动曾在美国社会引发了严重的两极分化。那之后发生了水门事件将美国权力核心的腐败和阴谋令人震惊地暴露出来。石油价格飞涨引发了20世纪70年代中期的经济衰退，美国在越南的失败也给其全球声望带来了致命打击，许多人曾认为美国将永远无法恢复元气。

At the time, the Kremlin was certain that the world was going its way and sought to extend power and influence to far-flung corners of the world. The Soviets were all too keen to take advantage of America’s problems by advertising America’s high crime rates and rampant drug addiction. In the words of one Politburo document from 1971, the Soviet policy was to discredit the United States, “thus undermining the U.S. position as the leader of the bourgeois world.”

克里姆林宫当时曾确信，世界正在朝着它希望的方向发展，并试图将权力和影响力扩大到世界各个角落。苏联政府非常热衷于通过大肆宣扬美国的高犯罪率和吸毒泛滥来利用美国的问题。用1971年的一份政治局文件中的话说，苏联的政策是败坏美国的名声，“从而破坏美国作为资产阶级世界领袖的地位。”

In the end, of course, it was the United States that prevailed in the Cold War, leaving the Soviet Union behind. Beijing had more foresight than Moscow. In 1979 the Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping, argued, “If we look back, we find that all of those countries that were on the side of the United States have been successful, whereas all those that were against the United States have not been successful.” He chose to seek closer ties with America. Mr. Xi appears to have little of Mr. Deng’s foresight. Like the Soviets in their time and Mr. Putin today, the Chinese leader is banking on America’s demise.

当然，最终在冷战中获胜的是美国，苏联被抛在了后面。北京曾比莫斯科更有远见。1979年，中国领导人邓小平曾说：“回头看看这几十年来，凡是和美国搞好关系的国家，都富起来了。”他选择寻求与美国建立更密切的关系。习近平似乎不像邓小平那样有远见。与苏联当年的领导人和今天的普京一样，这名中国领导人寄希望于美国的衰败。

Yes, America is at a low moment. Anyone can see that, without the help of Chinese or Russian propaganda. And there may be darker days still ahead, with no promise of a quick resolution or even a smooth election this fall.

是的，美国正处于低谷。无需依赖中国或俄罗斯的宣传，任何人都能看到这一点。美国未来也许还有更黑暗的日子，没有快速的解决方案，甚至不会有一场顺利的秋季大选。

But history has shown that resilience is built into the American system — through its institutional constraints, accountability and genuine, meaningful debate about the country’s direction. Amid all this turmoil, an American comeback still feels possible, even plausible. America in decline is America on the road to renewal.

但历史已表明，通过其制度约束、问责制，以及对国家方向的真正的、有意义的辩论，美国的体制里嵌入了迅速恢复的能力。在面临所有这些动荡的时候，美国的复苏仍有可能，甚至合理。走向衰落的美国是正走在复兴之路上的美国。