France faced a hung parliament and deep political uncertainty after the three main political groups of the left, center and right emerged from snap legislative elections on Sunday with large shares of the vote but nothing approaching an absolute majority.

在週日提前舉行的議會選舉中，左翼、中間派和右翼三個主要政治團體獲得了大量選票，但都遠未達到絕對多數，法國面臨著出現懸浮議會的可能性，以及嚴重的政治不確定性。

The preliminary results upended widespread predictions of a clear victory for the National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant party that dominated the first round of voting a week ago. Instead, the left-wing New Popular Front won 177 seats.

初步結果顛覆了對勒龐領導的反移民政黨國民聯盟將大勝的普遍預測。該政黨在一週前的第一輪投票中佔據主導地位。相反，左翼的「新人民陣線」贏得了177個席位。

The centrist coalition of President Emmanuel Macron, who cast the country into turmoil a month ago by calling the election, was in second place with 148 seats. Trailing it was the National Rally and its allies, which took 142 seats.

總統馬克宏領導的中間派聯盟以148個席位位居第二，他在一個月前宣布舉行大選，使國家陷入動盪。緊隨其後的是國民聯盟及其盟友，獲得142個席位。

With nearly all of the 577 National Assembly seats called, numbers compiled by The New York Times using data from the Interior Ministry confirmed earlier projections showing that no single party or bloc will win a majority.

隨著國民議會的577個席位幾乎全部產生，《紐約時報》根據法國內政部的數據編製的數字證實了此前的預測——沒有任何一個政黨或集團會贏得多數席位。

The details of the outcome may still shift, but it is clear that, to a remarkable degree, a scramble by centrists and the left to form a “Republican front” to confront the National Rally in the second round of voting worked. Candidates across France dropped out of three-way races and called for unity against Ms. Le Pen’s party.

這一結果的細節可能還會發生變化，但很明顯，中間派和左翼為了在第二輪投票中對抗國民聯盟而匆忙組建的「共和陣線」在很大程度上發揮了作用。法國各地的候選人退出了三方競爭，呼籲團結起來反對勒龐的政黨。

“The president now has the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left leader who is the charismatic but polarizing voice of the left-wing alliance. “We are ready.”

「總統現在有責任號召『新人民陣線』執政，」極具魅力的極左翼領袖、左翼聯盟中最為極化的讓－呂克·梅朗雄說。「我們準備好了。」

But France looked near ungovernable, with the Paris Olympics about to open in less than three weeks. The left surged, the National Rally added dozens of seats to its presence in the National Assembly, and Mr. Macron’s party suffered a stinging defeat, with the 250 seats held by his party and its allies in the National Assembly cut by about a third.

但是，巴黎奧運會將在不到三週的時間內開幕，而法國目前看起來幾乎無法治理。左翼勢力洶湧，而國民聯盟在國民議會中的席位增加了數十個，馬克宏的政黨遭受了慘痛的失敗，他的政黨及其盟友在國民議會中擁有的250個席位減少了約三分之一。

The result was that in the sharply divided lower house of Parliament, where most legislative power resides, no governing coalition appeared immediately conceivable, with Mr. Macron’s centrists squeezed between far-right and far-left groups that detest each other and him.

結果是，擁有最大立法權的議會下院分歧嚴重，似乎無法立即組建執政聯盟，馬克宏的中間派被夾在極右派和極左派之間，這兩個團體相互憎惡，而且都憎恨馬克宏。

Jordan Bardella, the protégé of Ms. Le Pen who led the National Rally to victory in European Parliament elections and the first round of legislative voting last month, called the deals that frustrated its push for an absolute majority “an alliance of the dishonorable” and said Mr. Macron had condemned France to “uncertainty and instability.”

勒龐的門徒若爾當·巴爾代拉曾領導國民聯盟在歐洲議會選舉和上個月的第一輪立法機構投票中獲勝。他說，左翼聯盟挫敗了國民聯盟爭取絕對多數的努力，是「可恥的聯盟」，並稱馬克宏讓法國處於「不確定和不穩定」之中。

Even with fewer seats than predicted, the National Rally has now assumed a place in French politics that erased a postwar political landscape built around the idea that the far right’s history of overt racism and antisemitism made it unworthy of positions of power.

儘管國民聯盟的席位少於預期，但它現在在法國政治中佔據了一席之地，抹去了戰後建立起來的、基於這樣一種理念的政治格局，即極右翼公然鼓吹種族主義和反猶主義的歷史，因而不配擔任權力職位。

Ms. Le Pen has disavowed that past. But even in its rebranded form, the party’s core message remains that immigrants dilute a glorified French national identity and that tighter borders and stricter regulations are needed to keep them out or prevent them from benefiting from the French social safety net.

勒龐否認了這段過去。但是，即使經過改頭換面，該黨的核心信息仍然是：移民稀釋了法國光榮的民族身份，需要收緊邊境，實施更嚴格的監管，將他們拒之門外，或阻止他們從法國的社會保障體系中受益。

France rejected that vision, but voted overwhelmingly for change. It did not want more of the same. It sent a stinging message to the pro-business elites gathered around Mr. Macron, who is term-limited and must leave office in 2027.

法國拒絕接受這一願景，但以壓倒性多數的投票支持變革。它不想重蹈覆轍。它向聚集在馬克宏周圍的親商界精英發出了一個嚴厲的信息。馬克宏的任期有限，必須在2027年卸任。

“France is more divided than ever,” said Alain Duhamel, a prominent political scientist and author. “We have learned it was a very bad idea for Mr. Macron to dissolve Parliament and call this election.”

「法國比以往任何時候都更加分裂，」著名政治學家、作家阿蘭·迪阿梅爾說。「我們已經明白，馬克宏解散議會並舉行選舉是一個非常糟糕的主意。」

At a time when a faltering President Biden is struggling to counter the nationalist America First message of former President Donald J. Trump, protracted French political limbo could add to an unstable international situation. Long close to Russia, Ms. Le Pen has tried to recast herself as a guarded supporter of Ukraine, but there is no question that Moscow will welcome the National Rally’s growing influence.

眼下，步履蹣跚的拜登總統正在努力對抗前總統川普的 「美國優先」民族主義理念，而法國長期的政治僵局可能會加劇不穩定的國際局勢。長期以來與俄羅斯關係密切的勒龐一直試圖將自己重塑為烏克蘭的謹慎支持者，但毫無疑問，莫斯科將歡迎國民聯盟日益增長的影響力。

The New Popular Front campaigned on a platform that would raise France’s monthly minimum wage, lower the legal retirement age to 60 from 64, reintroduce a wealth tax and freeze the price of energy and gas. Instead of cutting immigration, as the National Rally vowed, the alliance said it would make the asylum process more generous and smooth.

「新人民陣線」的競選綱領包括提高法國每月最低工資標準，將法定退休年齡從64歲降至60歲，重新徵收財富稅，凍結能源和天然氣價格。該聯盟表示，將使庇護程序更加慷慨和順利，而不是像國民聯盟承諾的那樣削減移民。

The platform said the alliance was supportive of Ukraine’s fight for freedom against Russia, and called for President Vladimir V. Putin to “answer for his crimes before international justice.”

綱領還表示，「新人民陣線」支持烏克蘭反抗俄羅斯爭取自由的鬥爭，並呼籲普丁總統「在國際正義面前為自己的罪行負責」。

How exactly the alliance’s economic program would be financed at a time when France faces a ballooning budget deficit, and how a pro-immigration policy would be applied in a country where it is perhaps the most sensitive issue, was unclear.

在法國面臨不斷膨脹的預算赤字之際，該聯盟的經濟計劃將如何獲得資金，以及如何實施親移民政策目前尚不得而知，要知道，在法國，移民問題可能是最敏感的問題。

The New Popular Front, which is sharply divided between moderate socialists and the far left, did very well among young people in the first round of voting, and in the projects heavily populated by North African immigrants around major cities, including Paris.

「新人民陣線」內部，溫和的社會主義者和極左派之間存在嚴重分歧，它在第一輪投票中獲得了年輕人的支持，在巴黎等主要城市周圍北非移民密集的地方表現出色。

The ardently pro-Palestinian stance of Mr. Mélenchon proved popular in these areas, even as it caused outrage when he appeared to cross a line into antisemitism, accusing Yaël Braun-Pivet, the Jewish president of the National Assembly, of “camping out in Tel Aviv to encourage the massacre.” He said of a large demonstration last November against antisemitism that “the friends of unconditional support of the massacre have their rendezvous.”

梅朗雄強烈支持巴勒斯坦的立場在這些地區很受歡迎，但他似乎越過了反猶主義的底線，他指責國民議會的猶太裔議長婭埃爾·布朗-皮韋「跑去特拉維夫，鼓勵大屠殺」，這種立場引發了憤怒。他在談到去年11月反對反猶主義的大規模示威活動時說，「無條件支持大屠殺的同道中人聚到了一起。」

Nothing had obliged Mr. Macron to call the snap election, but he was ready to gamble he could still be a unifying figure against the extremes. In fact, he had lost the allure to do so over seven years in office. He declared left and right to be obsolete labels when he came to power in 2017. They no longer are.

馬克宏毫無緣由地提前舉行選舉，但他把賭注押在自己仍然可以成為反對極端勢力的團結者。事實上，在執政的七年後，他已經失去了成為這樣一個人物的魅力。他在2017年上台時宣布，左派和右派都是過時的標籤。現在左右之分回來了。

Still, Mr. Macron’s centrist alliance did better than expected at the last and he lived to fight another day.

不過，馬克宏的中間派聯盟在最後一輪投票中表現好於預期，他又可以繼續戰鬥了。

Mr. Macron now appears to have two options, excluding resignation, which he has vowed he will not contemplate.

馬克宏現在似乎有兩個選擇，但不包括辭職，因為他誓言不會考慮辭職。

The first is to try to build a broad coalition that might stretch from the left to what remains of moderate Gaullist conservatives, some of whom broke a taboo during the campaign by aligning with the National Rally.

首先是試圖建立一個廣泛的聯盟，可能從左翼延伸到剩下的溫和戴高樂保守派，其中一些人在競選期間打破了禁忌，與國民聯盟結盟。

This possibility seems remote. Mr. Macron has made no secret of his intense dislike for Mr. Mélenchon; the feeling is reciprocated.

這種可能性似乎很渺茫。馬克宏毫不掩飾自己對梅朗雄的強烈厭惡；梅朗雄對馬克宏也是如此。

The second, less ambitious option would be for Mr. Macron to try to form some sort of caretaker government to handle current business.

第二種選擇是馬克宏組建某種形式的看守政府來處理當前的事務，這看上去不是那麼雄心勃勃。

Mr. Macron might, for example, ask former prime ministers from parties across a centrist bloc — his own, the Socialists, the center-right Republicans — to suggest a government of technocrats or prominent personalities who could deal with a restricted agenda over the next year.

例如，馬克宏可能會要求來自中間派政黨的前總理們——包括他自己的政黨、社會黨、中右翼共和黨——提出一個由技術官僚或知名人士組成的政府，這些人可以在未來一年處理有限的議程。

Under the Constitution, at least a year must elapse before the next parliamentary election.

根據憲法規定，距離下一次議會選舉必須至少有一年的時間。

One area where Mr. Macron may still be able to exert considerable influence, more than if he had been forced into a “cohabitation” with Mr. Bardella as prime minister, is international and military affairs, the traditional preserve of the president in the Fifth Republic.

即使被迫與可能擔任總理的巴爾代拉「分享權力」，馬克宏或許還是能在外交和軍事事務上發揮較大影響力，這是法蘭西第五共和國總統的傳統專屬領域。

An ardent supporter of the 27-nation European Union, which the National Rally wants to weaken, he will no doubt pursue his push for a “Europe power” with more integrated armies, defense industries and technological research, but his clout may be lessened by domestic weakness.

作為對擁有27個成員國的歐盟的熱心支持者，他無疑會繼續推動擁有更多一體化軍隊、國防工業和技術研究的「歐洲力量」，但他的影響力可能會因國內的疲軟而減弱。而國民聯盟希望削弱歐盟。

Mr. Macron, once tempted by a rapprochement with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, has also become an outspoken supporter of Ukraine’s fight for its freedom. With the American presidential election just four months away, doubts have grown over the willingness of the West to continue arming and funding Ukraine.

馬克宏曾一度受到與俄羅斯總統普丁和解的誘惑，但現在他成為了烏克蘭爭取自由的堅定支持者。距離美國總統大選只有四個月的時間了，人們越來越懷疑西方是否願意繼續為烏克蘭提供武器和資金。

Russia clearly believes France will wobble. “The people of France are seeking a sovereign foreign policy that serves their national interests & a break from the dictate of Washington & Brussels,” the Russian foreign ministry said in statement a few days ago. “French officials won’t be able to ignore these profound shifts in the attitudes of the vast majority of citizens.”

俄羅斯顯然認為法國會動搖。「法國人民正在尋求一種符合國家利益的主權外交政策，擺脫華盛頓和布魯塞爾的支配，」俄羅斯外交部幾天前在聲明中表示。「法國官員無法忽視絕大多數公民態度的深刻轉變。」

France, in short, faces great uncertainty, both internally and externally. It appears that a constitutional crisis cannot be ruled out over the coming months. Gabriel Attal, the outgoing centrist prime minister who offered his resignation Sunday, declared that “tonight no absolute majority can be controlled by the extremes thanks to our determination and values.”

總之，法國在國內外都面臨著巨大的不確定性。在未來幾個月內，似乎無法排除發生憲法危機的可能性。即將離任的中間派總理加布里埃爾·阿塔爾週日提出辭職，他宣稱，「今晚，由於我們的決心和價值觀，極端分子無法控制絕對多數。」

He was claiming a small victory, but of course the center does not have any such majority either.

他聲稱自己取得了小小的勝利，但是，中間派當然也沒有取得這樣的多數。

Unlike many other European countries, including Belgium, Italy and Germany, France has no tradition of monthslong negotiation to form convoluted coalition governments between parties of divergent views, or of making caretaker alliances. Indeed, Charles de Gaulle designed the Fifth Republic in 1958 to put an end to the parliamentary turmoil and short-lived governments of the Fourth Republic.

與包括比利時、義大利和德國在內的許多其他歐洲國家不同，法國沒有在不同觀點的政黨之間進行長達數月的談判以組建複雜聯合政府的傳統，也沒有組建看守聯盟的傳統。事實上，戴高樂在1958年設計了第五共和國，以結束第四共和國的議會動盪和短命政府。

One theory offered for Mr. Macron’s mysterious decision to call the election was that, with the National Rally governing and Mr. Bardella as prime minister, the sheen would have come off the far right party before the presidential election in 2027.

對於馬克宏突然宣布舉行大選的神秘決定，有一種說法是，在國民聯盟執政、巴爾代拉擔任總理的情況下，極右翼政黨的光環將在2027年總統大選之前褪去。

It was another gamble based on the idea that it is easier to rail from the margins than to make difficult governmental decisions. Mr. Macron does not want to hand the keys to the Élysée Palace, the seat of the presidency, to Ms. Le Pen three years from now.

這是另一場賭博，基於這樣一種觀點：在邊緣進行抨擊比做出艱難的政府決策要容易得多。馬克宏不希望三年後把總統官邸愛麗舍宮的鑰匙交給勒龐。

In this sense, the election result may confound Mr. Macron and benefit Ms. Le Pen. She has demonstrated her growing popularity without her party assuming the burdens of office. On the other hand an ingrained French resistance to the idea of power passing to the far right was once again illustrated.

從這個意義上說，選舉結果可能會讓馬克宏感到困惑，而讓勒龐受益。她展示了自己日益增長的人氣，而她的政黨卻沒有承擔起執政的重任。另一方面，法國人抵制極右翼掌權這一根深蒂固的思想再次得到了體現。