NBA Draft Betting Odds: Who Will Be Drafted No. 1 Overall? Which Team Will Draft Bronny James?

When all the dust and rumors settle, there seems to be little chance the top two selections for the June 26-27 draft won’t be tall French stars.

After the Atlanta Hawks won the top pick at the NBA Draft Lottery, the “worst draft in a decade” narrative took over.

In the time since the lottery, it seems, basketball followers grew tired of the story line and began looking for more interesting fuel for the draft fire (Bronny James and Phoenix?).

Today is the deadline for college players with eligibility remaining to back out of the 2024 draft for another year in school.

In addition to the Hawks’ discussion, there are a couple of other headlines to follow. But let’s get the Atlanta part done first.

Another French 7-footer going No. 1?

Although there are a great deal of tickets on Bronny James to go No. 1 (maybe for a souvenir keepsake?), Frenchman Alex Saar has the best chance to walk on stage first.

Atlanta, which held only a 3 percent chance to win the top pick during the lottery, is doing all its due diligence to ensure Saar is the best option.

As of Tuesday, Saar was still favored to go No. 1, with odds of -260 at DraftKings and -250 at FanDuel. The 7-foot-1 center had been -300 at FanDuel just more than a week ago, so there’s still an air of uncertainty.

And absolutely no one is projecting Saar to have anywhere near the impact last year’s No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama gave the San Antonio Spurs. Except Saar himself.

Round out the top 3

Zaccharie Risacher, a 6-foot-9 19-year-old, was the second-best bet to be No.1 this week. Risacher’s odds were +240 at DraftKings and +300 at FanDuel (down from +490 a week ago).

UConn center Donovan Clingan is a virtual unanimous choice to land among the top three, with odds to be the No. 1 selection ranging from +1200 at DraftKings to +1500 at FanDuel as of Tuesday.

From there, the next candidates to be No. 1 bounced up to +2000 at DraftKings (Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard and 18-year-old Serbian Nikola Topic) and to +5000 at FanDuel (Sheppard, Topic, Lithuanian G-League guard Matas Buzelis, Kentucky’s Robert Dillingham and UConn’s Stephon Castle).

Changes to the LeBron James-Bronny James scenario

It wasn’t difficult to focus on LeBron James’ son Bronny to fan the flames of speculation.

But some NBA execs and peripheral basketball people stirred the stew this week, intimating that the two could join the Phoenix Suns if two fairly long-shot possibilities were to hit.

First, the Suns would have to be convinced that LeBron would take his talents to the desert.

Then, the team that built a “Big 3" of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker and then flamed out in the postseason would use its first-round pick (No. 22 overall) on Bronny.

Oh yeah, and LeBron would have to play for the veteran’s minimum in 2024-25.

Silly? Sure, but the sportsbooks are big business and have hedged the “what team will draft Bronny James” prop significantly.

The Suns were an afterthought last week, but things change.

At DraftKings, the Lakers (+180) are favored to land Bronny, with the Suns now the No. 2 choice at +1000.

At FanDuel, it’s Lakers +160 with the Suns at +750.

Last week, BetMGM reported Bronny grabbing 22.5 percent of No. 1 overall tickets but Sarr receiving 81.4 percent of the handle.

That’s the most realistic portrayal unless LeBron makes it unmistakably clear that he will opt out of his contract – he has until three days after the draft – and join Bronny for the vet’s minimum.

DraftKings has Bronny as the 12th-most likely player to go No. 1; FanDuel has him at No. 9 on its list.

Regardless, it doesn’t seem as if Bronny will last until LA’s second-round pick, No. 55 overall. 

DraftKings over/under number, 39.5, for Bronny’s position in the draft remained unchanged over the past week.