Three NFL Playoff Teams Set To Decline in 2024

Half of the NFC playoff field was decided in the final two weeks of the 2023 regular season.

The top three teams in the conference finished with matching 12-5 records and a .706 winning percentage, but not all division champions are created equal.

Envisioning Super Bowl bridesmaids and the West champion 49ers return to the top perch isn’t all that challenging, but the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6 last season) know a thing or two about Super Bowl runner-up hangover.

In the AFC, four non-playoff teams entered the final two weeks with a more than realistic shot at the postseason and, among them, the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts all have enough to flip 9-8 records to 11- or 12-win campaigns this season.

Here’s a look at three playoff teams who are set to take a step back:

Follow us for a moment: Deshaun Watson might be the best he’s been since being acquired from the Houston Texans, but he’s four seasons removed from a 4,800-yard, 33-TD campaign and has played 12 total games since that 2020 season ended. In a division built to devour quarterbacks, Watson might be facing a more difficult revival than most understand. 

The Browns were the No. 5 seed in the 2024 playoffs before being blitzed by C.J. Stroud and the Texans in Houston.

If Cleveland is going to compete in the AFC North, it will be on the back on the Jim Schwartz defense that dominated most of the first half of last season. Baltimore (13 wins, No. 1 seed in the AFC last season) and Pittsburgh (wildcard berth last season) made improvements at key positions and have staying power in a tightly packed conference. We should know a lot about the Browns by mid-October following four road trips (Jaguars, Raiders, Commanders, Eagles) and a home date with the Cowboys in the first six games.

Los Angeles Rams (10-7, NFC Wildcard in 2023)

The Rams had two major subtractions on defense with the retirement of All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald and the Falcons hiring Raheem Morris as head coach. Not all of the pieces are absent from a strong second half of the season when the Rams measured up with the best in the league, including an overtime loss at Baltimore that was the lone blemish on eight post-bye week games.

But the Rams fire out of the chute this season with three games against 2024 playoff teams – at Detroit Week 1, vs. 49ers Week 3 and vs. Green Bay Week 5 – with trips to face the improved Cardinals and Chicago Bears intermixed. 

Depth and discovery were buzzwords for the Rams last season when rookies emerged as linchpins on either side of the ball. Wide receiver Puka Nacua set rookie records with consistent production, linebacker Ernest Jones IV had 145 total tackles in his second season and interior pass rusher Kobie Turner had a team-best 9.0 sacks as Donald’s sidekick.

If the Rams find another handful of gems from the 2024 draft class, Los Angeles can stay in the playoff chase. But the Seahawks are improved and Arizona finished the 2023 regular season with confidence. All are chasing the 49ers in a division that should be among the NFL’s best.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8, NFC South champions in 2023)

In the rock fight to stand tallest in the South division last season, Tampa Bay outlasted the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, then made a surprisingly strong showing in the playoffs by ousting the Eagles and taking the Lions late into the fourth quarter in the divisional round.

By any reasonable measure, the South competition should be improved. 

The Panthers won two games and plucked QB soothsayer Dave Canales, whose recent hits include Geno Smith’s “Still Standing” effort with the Seahawks and the 2023 double-bird to doubters delivered by Baker Mayfield with the Bucs.

Will Tampa be mostly the same without Canales after paying up to keep most of its key free agents? Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, safety Antoine Winfield Jr., and linebacker Lavonte David all reupped to run it back under Todd Bowles in 2024.

But David is 34 and Mayfield has been banged up every season he’s been a starter. Thus far, Evans (31 this season) has outrun Father Time and tied for the NFL lead with 13 TD catches last season. 

The question is whether the Saints and Falcons have done enough to close the gap while Carolina recalibrates under Canales.

Atlanta stands as the biggest threat.