Market Moguls
- The Chinese Yuan’s Appreciation: Implications for the Indian rupee
The yuan’s recent rally can largely be attributed to the softening of the US dollar. The dollar's slide was sparked by several factors, including the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) unexpected rate hike, which led to an unwinding of short positions against the yen and triggered a broader sell-off of the dollar.
- Looking to diversify your portfolio? Be a global citizen & a global investor
The Union Budget 2024 has reformed the tax structure for International Fund of Funds (FoFs) to a 12.5% long-term capital gains tax if sold post 24 months. With assets under International FoFs surging significantly, investors may consider global equities for diversification and reducing market-specific risks.
- Avoiding Pitfalls: Key considerations before investing in momentum stocks
The concept of "present value" is rooted in the idea that money's worth changes over time. Essentially, a rupee today is worth more than a rupee tomorrow. This is because money can be invested and earn interest, making it more valuable in the present. Factors like interest rates and people's outlook on the future influence how we perceive the value of money at different points in time.
- How Sebi plans to transform fundraising through follow-on offerings
SEBI has proposed faster rights issues and flexible allotment to selective investors, aiming to streamline fundraising for listed companies. The regulator suggests reducing the timeline and intermediaries involved, making the process as simple as a preferential issue.
- Understanding the risks of algorithmic trading: A guide for cautious investors
Algorithmic trading has transformed India's stock market since its introduction by SEBI in 2008, now accounting for 50-55% of all trades. While algos offer benefits like speed and reduced errors, they also pose risks such as algorithm errors, technology failures, and compliance.
- From legacy to leadership: The evolution & impact of modern family offices
Modern family offices have evolved to manage complexities of large family structures and wealth. They provide governance, education, and support to next-generation leaders, blending traditional values with modern business practices. This ensures the legacy not only continues but also flourishes, promoting both new and existing ventures.
- The Shape of Risk: Always present, always changing
As circumstances shift and new challenges emerge, so do the associated risks. The landscape of risk is dynamic, requiring continuous assessment, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. Rather than disappearing, risk transforms, demanding ongoing vigilance and strategic foresight
- RBI’s steeplechase with cyclical and structural hurdles
As the RBI intensifies its regulatory tightening, the banking sector will need to negotiate with slower growth, lower margins, and rising credit costs. The central bank is also concerned about the recent spurts in prices of milk and mobile tariffs, which can permeate into broader inflation impetus.
- Nifty bulls caught between greed and fear. Let's see where we are in the market cycle
Investors who have been around are wondering if this is 1999 all over again with an imminent NASDAQ crash. Many others are pondering whether to sell, lock in profits, or buy more. The best approach, we believe, is to examine the data and make an objective decision.
- Will banks continue to do heavy lifting for indices amid earning challenges?
The Budget's capital gains tax changes caused a stir in the market, forcing sell-side analysts to defend their optimistic stock valuations despite the negative tax impact. This added to existing challenges in the market.
- We see the Budget as being neutral for the Rupee
The slowdown in core services, coupled with the rise in unemployment beyond 4% for the first time since November 2021, is encouraging. Additional indicators like housing, retail sales, and industrial activity also show weakening trends. As we observe these shifts in the economic landscape, we might witness a change in the Federal Reserve's narrative.
- GST, tax reforms will boost growth, equity in insurance sector
The insurance industry in India is gearing up for the Union Budget with expectations for tax reforms, universal health schemes, and social security measures. Collaborative efforts and proactive risk management strategies are highlighted as crucial for creating a financially secure and resilient India.
- Can Nirmala Sitharaman blend good economics with shrewd politics?
As NDA 3.0 prepares for the upcoming budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman faces the task of balancing economic growth with political demands. Strong economic indicators allow for potential tax relief for the middle class and increased welfare spending.
- Not our grandfather’s market
The Nifty trades at a high TTM PE of 23x, nearing historical highs. Mid-caps' 70% premium over large-caps is unprecedented. Despite disappointing recent events, fears of a looming market correction akin to past bubbles persist.
- Are you a common investor or a smart investor? 5 ways to combat volatility
Market volatility unnerves investors who may panic, leading to hasty decisions and missed opportunities, such as during India's recent election results. Despite a sharp initial drop, equity markets rebounded to all-time highs soon after. Mastering market fluctuations is crucial for long-term financial security.
- When a decade is a short time in the market
A study of the long-term returns of Sensex and equities highlight the volatility and significant variations over decades. It also questions the perception of gold as a safe haven asset.
- FPIs may adopt a cautious stance until the election results are clear
Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) in India may see a cautious approach until the election results are clear. India's economic performance attracts FPI flows driven by factors like interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, along with a stable political environment.
- Navigating market volatility during elections: Insights & strategies for investors
Elections bring uncertainty with potential policy shifts like tax reforms, subsidies policies, and changes to capital gains tax. Market volatility can unsettle investors as they reevaluate positions based on political rhetoric and campaign promises.
- India Playbook 2024: Aiming for a trillion dollars in forex reserves by 2029
India's economic trajectory for global investments is driven by stable macroeconomic environment, robust earnings growth, and significant contributions from software services and remittances. Inclusion in MSCI EM index and prominent Emerging Market Bond indices enhances India's investment landscape.
- How investing taught me to enjoy driving
Author's late driving experience emphasises defensive driving, road safety, and the joy of investing while driving, highlighting the importance of controlling actions and minimising damage from mistakes.
- 100 % FDI in the space sector: India opens its doors to enhanced private participation
The amendment is a part of the Indian Space Policy 2023. It is a comprehensive and dynamic framework designed to unlock India's potential in the space sector through enhanced private participation.
- Why is the Q3 GDP surprise not surprising?
The robust 8.4% real GDP growth print for 3Q contrasts the grim reality of household consumption and income situation. The latest national expenditure survey (2022-23), released after a lag of 11 years shows real consumption grew modestly at 3% over the past 11 years and the PLFS data indicates flat real incomes over the past four years. Also, most consumer companies have shown a lackluster demand situation.
- Election years have typically been volatile for equity investors. Will history repeat in 2024?
In all likelihood, it could be the elections rather than the central banks that will move the markets as both India and the US face elections in 2024.
- Navigating the general insurance landscape: A reflective review and forward outlook
The GI industry is entirely focused on achieving the glorious mission of 'Insurance for All' by 2047, set by the insurance regulator.
- After high-teen returns in 2023, what does the macro picture indicate for Nifty bulls in 2024?
The year started with the persistence of inflation at elevated levels across economies, continuing geo-political uncertainties and tightening financial conditions. The banking turmoil in US (Silicon Valley Bank) and Europe (Credit Suisse) increased risk aversion with the expectations of an early reversal of the monetary tightening cycle, leading to Equity markets to correct and softening of bond yields.
- Upcoming Elections: A short-term rollercoaster ride with a neutral long-term outlook
Elections have been a topic of intense discussion, with investors, traders, retail players, and institutions alike weighing in on the potential impact the upcoming elections may have on the Indian markets.
- Navigating multi-asset investing: The role of rule-based allocation
However, as investors embrace the world of multi-asset strategies with the primary goal of mitigating volatility, they inevitably encounter a recurring challenge— Volatility can change as exposure to different asset classes changes.
- 6 things to consider if you are approaching wealth accumulation goals
To navigate this ever-changing performance, we need more than just a script. We need a director's vision.
- How will the Israel-Palestine war impact financial markets? Is there any historical reference to this?
To understand the potential ramifications of such events, let’s delve into both the immediate and long-term impacts and the historical context.
- Investing in GenZ: Decoding the next generation of retail investors
It is high time the investment world studied their spending aspirations and lifestyle preferences in greater depth, for these new-age custodians will largely dictate the business and commerce activities of tomorrow.
- The future of wealth management will be hybrid - a blend of physical and digital
This not only ensured the uninterrupted operation of their businesses but also laid the groundwork for a digital-focused future. Wealth managers took proactive steps by investing in digital operational frameworks and harnessing data-driven insights.
- Gifts that matter: Celebrating Raksha Bandhan with smart financial presents
In the intricate fabric of Indian culture, festivals work like skilled weavers, twining threads of heritage and sentiment to unite families.
- Breaking the chains of debt: A pledge for financial freedom on Independence Day
For countless individuals, the burden of debt casts a shadow over their ability to lead a life on their own terms. The pursuit of financial independence necessitates understanding the intricacies of the debt cycle.
- The boring path to exciting returns
When you try to make a quick buck, you pay a lot of attention to what’s hot and sizzling at the moment. This invariably means flipping your investments every now and then to chase the ongoing trend. But just like fashion, trends keep changing faster than you can keep pace with them and you never settle with your investments.
- Indian stock market decoupling has begun. 3 reasons why it will last
India’s economic and earnings growth strength, coupled with a possible recession in the US are the two key reasons behind India’s outperformance and we are hopeful that this outperformance should continue due to 3 reasons.
- How to plan your investments when Indian equities are more attractive than global peers
The Indian stock market has been one of the best-performing markets in the world over the last 3 months. Over the last 1 year, 3 year, and 5 years, the Nifty 50 has delivered a CAGR of 21.6%, 23%, and 12.4%, respectively. This strong performance has been driven by the confluence of a number of factors. Notably, over the last 2 years, two very significant events have transpired
- AI and the art of questioning: How investors can use chatbots
The advancement of AI technology has led to the development of more complex machine learning models like rule-based systems, expert systems, and machine learning. The use of AI applications exploded, with the development of virtual assistants, autonomous vehicles, and personalized recommendation engines
- Hot & gold: Your guide to investing in India's favourite precious metal
Gold has been a highly desired asset in India for centuries due to its value, prosperity, and inflation protection. There are multiple avenues of investing in gold in India, including physical gold, gold funds, digital gold, and sovereign gold bonds. Physical gold is a good option for those who want to wear jewellery, but it can be costly and come with extra taxes and regulations. Gold funds are taxed based on income tax rate, while digital gold is a convenient way to invest in physical gold but is not regulated. Sovereign gold bonds are exempt from capital gains tax and offer a simple interest rate of 2.5% per year, but have a lock-in period of 5 years. Investors should carefully consider each method before making a decision.
- Market valuations tad pricey but justified; growth stocks might command higher bucks
Indian equity markets started CY23 weakly due to a bear attack from a US short-seller on one of India's largest listed conglomerates that led to cashing out by FIIs. However, markets have recovered significantly since then as India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable and pro-growth monetary policies are predicted.
- Invest Right! Do you know these 7 ‘Truths of Investing’
Despite a culture of high savings, only 5-6% of Indians invest in equities due to a lack of financial literacy. However, fintech companies and financial institutions have started leveraging user-friendly interfaces, informative content, and investment tools to educate and empower individuals to make informed investment decisions.
- Allocation in your portfolio through the mutual fund route
The other approach is getting into hybrid funds, with a defined portfolio allocation. There are aggressive hybrid funds with an equity allocation of more than 65 percent of the portfolio, there are conservative hybrid funds with equity of less than 25 percent of the portfolio, there are arbitrage funds, balanced advantage funds, etc. The advantage of this approach is that hybrid funds, since they have a defined asset allocation, will reset the portfolio when there is a deviation.
- How to use large language models in asset management industry
These models, such as GPT-3, are able to analyze vast amounts of data and generate natural language text, making them well-suited for tasks such as market analysis, portfolio management, and even trading.
- Why is asset allocation important for first-time investors?
You pick assets as per your goals' time horizon: If you have no short- or mid-term goals, you can think of having a higher allocation to equities. On the other hand, if you have near-term goals, you can opt for debt instruments. Asset allocation helps you create a portfolio by factoring in your financial goals' time horizon.
- RBI meeting outcome on Wednesday: Will it be a pause or 25 bps rate hike?
While market participants remain slightly divided between a pause and a 25 bps hike in the upcoming policy, there seems a clear consensus that the monetary policy will signal an end of the rate hiking cycle. However, we remain cautious on the possibility of dovish forward guidance just yet
- The Impossible Trinity: FM must bat like Suryakumar Yadav, bowl like Umran Malik & field like Ravindra Jadeja this Budget
The budget should focus on encouraging private investment through tax incentive to accelerate growth. This can include things like tax credits, deductions, exemptions, and other financial incentives to encourage entrepreneurs.
- If I were FM: Saurabh Mukherjea’s list of 3 dos and 3 don’ts for Budget 2023
India Inc needs a more copious supplier of skilled workers to deal with the double digit wage inflation we are seeing in factories, in Financial Services firms and in IT Services. More than university graduates, we need youngsters who have practical skills which make them valuable in manufacturing, operations and sales roles. India Inc should be given the license to set up Technical Education Institutes which can impart such practical training and thus drive mass job creation.
- What lays the foundation of an economic bubble?
Under the gold standard, the intrinsic value of a currency is used to fluctuate in tandem with its face value, causing most economies to operate with almost negligible inflation.
- Global central banks search for immaculate disinflation turns longer
Even though we might be approaching closer to the peak of Fed hikes and going forward the magnitude of hikes may come down, we believe there are quite a few considerations before assuming that it’s time for a Fed Pivot
- Learn with ETMarkets: What are the advantages of investing in bonds?
Bonds offer high liquidity compared to FDs as it helps you buy or sell them with great ease in the secondary market. It is known to provide the advantage of selling bonds without a substantial change in price.
- How US recession and dollar appreciation will impact India stock market: Aashish Somaiyaa
The focus to cut inflation at any cost is widely expected to cause a recession in the USA. Ultimately, the US dollar will reflect their economic reality i.e. a slowing economy and possibly even a recession which will cause eventual movement out from the US in search for growth.