Christian Kirk Is Set for Another Underwhelming Fantasy Football Campaign

Prior to the 2022 season, Christian Kirk failed to finish among the top-40 fantasy football receivers in half-PPR leagues in three of his four seasons. His 2021 campaign was his best fantasy finish yet as WR26.

Kirk's fantasy value boomed in his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022, recording the 11th-most points among wideouts after carrying a WR40 average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR leagues, per FantasyPros.

This production would quickly fall off for Kirk, though. His targets severely dropped in 2023, causing him to finish as WR47. Unlike 2022, Jacksonville's receiver failed on delivering fantasy value considering his WR29 ADP.

The Jaguars went through more change ahead of the 2024 season. What does this mean for Kirk's fantasy football outlook? Can he get back to 2022's exceptional season, or will he keep producing outside the top 40 receivers?

Christian Kirk Fantasy Football Outlook

Reviewing a Deflating 2023 Season

Kirk received only 85 targets last season -- his lowest since 2020. This was nearly a 50-target drop off compared to his mark of 133 in 2022. What caused the sudden change?

Adding Calvin Ridley to the room was the biggest factor, for he lead the team with 1,016 receiving yards while logging 136 targets. He would go on to finish as WR17 in fantasy. Kirk's running mate eating up the workload certainly played a major role.

Additionally, Evan Engram's usage soared to 143 targets -- easily surpassing his career-high of 115 from 2017. Not only would Engram lead his team in targets, he also had the most targets at his position group. His 8.4 targets per game were second behind T.J. Hockenson's 8.5, and Engram's 23.6% target share was the third-highest for tight ends behind Hockenson and Travis Kelce.

We saw Kirk's snap rate drop, as well. According to PlayerProfiler, Kirk had the 16th-highest snap share (89.1%) among wideouts in 2022, which plummeted to 72.2% last year (56th).

Getting targets in the right spots adds even more value to fantasy players. This was the case for Kirk in 2022, receiving the 12th-most deep targets and 5th-most red zone targets. He ranked 54th and 69th in deep and red zone targets, respectively, in 2023.

Injuries also played a part in Kirk's disappointing season. He would miss the final five games of the season with a groin injury, and it was later revealed he was playing through an injured groin since Week 6.

Putting the injury aside, we still saw Kirk come up with 1.6 fewer fantasy points per game from 2022 and 2023.

Surrounding pieces, a drop in usage, and the groin injury all played a part in Kirk's fall off after a career-best season. Will these numbers look similar in 2024? Let's look at Jacksonville's situation for the upcoming season.

More Mouths to Feed in Jacksonville

First comes the good news. Ridley is no longer on the team as he signed with the Tennessee Titans. However, Kirk still has good competition for targets; Engram remains a threat, Gabriel Davis was signed in free agency, and the Jags selected Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Davis and/or Thomas probably won't match the level of Ridley's play, but this could be a worse situation for Kirk's fantasy value. There are even more mouths to feed. At least Kirk had little competition from Jacksonville's third receiver in 2023 as Zay Jones was targeted only 64 times. This probably won't be the case in 2024.

Engram is going to remain a target hog as long as Trevor Lawrence is spinning the ball. There's clear chemistry between the two with Engram reaching at least 98 targets in back-to-back years as a Jag.

With the Buffalo Bills, Davis was targeted over 80 times in back-to-back seasons. The Jaguars just dished out a three-year, $39 million contract for Davis; he's going to be used, as well.

The same can be said for Thomas as a first-round rookie. Thomas is expected to fill Ridley's role. While he will probably not receive all of Ridley's work, plenty of targets should still be headed for the rookie.

You thought we were done here? Don't forget about Travis Etienne -- a quality receiving running back. He had the 6th-most receptions (58) at his position last year and was awarded the 13th-highest receiving grade among backs who had at least 25 targets, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Kirk still has a good chance of receiving the most targets for Jacksonville's receivers. Davis has never been a target machine, and Thomas was mostly about generating big plays at LSU -- not receiving a million targets.

Still, I have a hard time seeing Kirk reach his 2022 workload due to the number of targets, especially with Engram and Etienne taking a lot of the short-yardage work.

So, what about Kirk's deep and red zone targets? Can he at least return to dominating in these categories?

More red zone targets could be in the cards. Ridley (40.9%) and Jones (23.9%) led the team in red zone target share last season. With both players gone, there will be an opportunity for more chances, and Engram got only a 15.2% share last season compared to Kirk's 15.0%.

Deep targets are a different story, though. Davis has carved out notable roles thanks to deep ball ability, ranking among the top 15 in deep targets over the last two seasons. Thomas also totaled 17.3 yards per catch at LSU in 2023, and scouting reports highlighted his ability as a deep threat. The big plays could be lacking for Kirk once again.

After looking at the Jaguars' current roster, let's make the final call on Kirk's fantasy football value by utilizing projections.

Christian Kirk Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's fantasy football projections have Kirk finishing as WR32, two spots below his WR30 ADP. The projected stats sit at 87 receptions, 134 targets, 1,018 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns.

This would actually be a decline in receiving yards per game at 59.9 compared to 65.6 in 2023. His yards per catch are also in line to be down at 11.7 compared to 13.8 last season.

Overall, the projections are going right along with most of our data. Kirk should see more targets and lead the receiving group; this is also taking a positive spin with Kirk reaching 134 targets (more than his 2022 season).

Even in a positive scenario, Kirk's fantasy football value isn't looking that exciting. The touchdowns could be up -- as the projections hammer home -- but Kirk's ability to generate big plays could stay down due to the additions of Davis and Thomas.

There's still an outside shot that Kirk can rival his 2022 production. An increase in targets should be on the way, and FantasyPros has the Jaguars' receivers with the eighth-most favorable schedule. Kirk won't be playing on an injured groin anymore, either.

Ultimately, the numbers say don't expect Kirk to get back to being a top-12 fantasy receiver. The potential loss of deep targets is a big concern even with an increased workload incoming. Plus, the Jaguars still have plenty of mouths to feed, harming Kirk's potential production across the board when Lawrence struggled with efficiency last season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.