UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Lemos vs. Jandiroba

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 94: Lemos vs. Jandiroba, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Betting Picks

Luana Carolina vs. Lucie Pudilova

Carolina to Win (-115)

There's likely a bit of an adjustment for weight here -- and one my model really can't figure out. However, that still leaves Luana Carolina as a solid bet in this near pick 'em with Lucie Pudilova even with Pudilova dropping to flyweight.

Pudilova formerly has fought in Carolina's native flyweight (125) division, so the size difference shouldn't be massive here. With that the case, "Dread" Carolina is a significantly better fighter.

That's not just via her 6-3 record to Pudilova's 3-7 mark. Carolina also has a solid +1.00 striking success rate (SSR) to the Czech fighter's -0.15. Plus, Carolina's excellent takedown defense (76%) should take away Pudilova's recent changeup; four of her five career takedowns have come in the last three bouts. Overall, Pudilova lands a poor clip of takedowns (27%), so I just don't see great success in that realm for her.

With that in mind, Pudilova also will face a two-inch reach on the feet and be resigned to that fighting arena for most of the bout. There's a reason that Carolina crossed over from a -111 underdog on Monday to this bout's favorite.

My model has Carolina at 61.8% likely to win (-160 implied), so there's good value on this pick 'em. Bettors might -- rightfully -- just be scared this fight should likely open as a heavy favorite to go the distance (when the line is out) and judging randomness is always plausible. Yet, the model feels strongly about Carolina despite also believing this one sees its full distance 71.6% of the time.

Brian Kelleher vs. Cody Gibson

Kelleher to Win (+168)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-102)

I'm a bit surprised the market is so invested in one side of a fight between combatants who have both struggled to secure wins of late.

Cody Gibson is 0-2 in this latest stint with UFC, and Brian Kelleher's last win came in January 2022. One of these older bantamweights likely gets off the schneid this weekend, and Kelleher might be undervalued to do so.

Gibson has five inches of reach behind a -0.08 SSR, so you'd assume Kelleher's -1.25 SSR is no match. I'd disagree based on level of competition; each of Kelleher's last three opponents are either former champions or currently ranked in the top 15 at bantamweight. Matchmakers have not done 37-year-old "Boom" any favors.

Kelleher is also the significantly more efficient wrestler, landing a higher rate of takedowns per 15 minutes (1.74) with 41% accuracy to Gibson's 27%. He also averages 0.5 more submission attempts per 15 minutes, including three UFC wins via sub.

The favorite's lone UFC win came over Johnny Bedford (0-3 UFC, 1 NC). It's absurd he's -210 to win a fight over a proven veteran. There certainly won't be a huge gap between these two when each's respective last finish came before the start of 2021.

My model has Kelleher at 44.8% likely to win this fight and expects it to go the distance 65.6% of the time. Both show tremendous value against these odds.

Steve Garcia vs. SeungWoo Choi

Garcia to Win by KO/TKO (+125)

At 155 pounds, Steve Garcia seemed like a directionless fighter without an identity. At 145, his identity has been to become a hammer.

He's knocked out three straight foes in less than seven minutes in his new weight class, ballooning his career knockdown rate to 3.14%. That's the best active mark at featherweight for a fighter with at least three starts. In addition to an elite takedown D (88%), he's become a menace in this division against solid competition (11-8 combined record).

Fists should certainly fly in this one with SeungWoo Choi. Choi's knockdown rate (1.39%) is solid with poor striking defense (47%). However, in a firefight, it's hard not to like Garcia's superior power when his striking accuracy (56%) is nearly 20 percentage points higher than Choi's (38%), and he's the one of the two averaging over a takedown per 15 minutes (1.31).

My model has Garcia at 71.4% likely to win this fight, so you could take his moneyline. However, Choi has been dropped five times in his last three fights, and all five of Garcia's UFC-affiliated wins have come via KO/TKO. Therefore, the model also expects a win comes via knockout 61.4% of the time.

This prop around even money is the best way to support "Mean Machine."

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba to Win by Points (+270)

This is a tough main event to bet -- especially when I disagree with my model.

It pegs Amanda Lemos as 50.6% likely to win, and I just forecast she has trouble defending takedowns in this fight. Her defense in that area (57%) isn't strong, and Virna Jandiroba attempts 6.56 per 15 minutes. My model is projecting her to score 7.10 takedowns in this matchup. It's just being heavily skewed by one input: 63% of Tapology users expect Lemos to win. They're a well-versed community, but they also may just not love Jandiroba's unentertaining, grappling-heavy style.

Yet, the model still shows solid value on Jandiroba's decision prop because she may have a difficult time submitting Lemos, who has suffered that fate just once in 18 pro fights in extremely odd, unconventional circumstances. Her only career TKO also came via a broken arm of Kanako Murata than anything to do with her punching power.

Jandiroba has posted at least 6:10 in control time -- or 41.1% of the fight -- in her last three matches, and Lemos is a candidate to absorb plenty. After all, two fights ago, Lemos was controlled by Weili Zhang for 16:07 in a 25-minute title fight.

My model has the favorite's points prop at +210 (32.3% implied), so +270 is solid value despite the overall verdict in Lemos' direction. We can chalk this up to a direct result of her submission prop (+240) being a bit overvalued.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.