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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --493 FXUS61 KBGM 222226 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 626 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through most of the weekend. While some light showers will be possible on Sunday, rain chances will be better early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --625 PM Update... Partly cloudy skies will become clear this evening, as high pressure settles into the area. With slightly higher dewpoints around, and ideal conditions for radiational cooling, some valley fog is likely to develop after midnight. Overall forecast is on track, with just some minor tweaks to sky cover grids. 220 PM Update... Skies become mostly clear tonight and winds will generally be light, which would be favorable for fog to develop. Model soundings are also showing a shallow inversion, though drier air will be present just above the surface as will stronger winds. If fog develops, it will likely be limited to the river valleys tonight. With the upper- level trough lifting out of the region, heights increase and temperatures will be slightly warmer than previous nights. However, most will fall into the 40s for one more night. Lower elevations will just hang onto the 50s. A ridge of high pressure builds into the region on Friday. This will bring warmer and drier conditions with it. For the first day in awhile, PoPs are zero. Temperatures will climb into the 70s and low 80s under sunny skies. Highs were bumped up slightly above most guidance. Then, temps fall as low as the upper 40s, though most should stay in the 50s. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be favorable for fog once again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure crests over NY and PA Saturday as another upper level wave moves toward the upper Great Lakes. As a result, Saturday looks fair and seasonably warm. For Saturday night, upper level wave moves into NY and PA with little if any QPF. NBM was showing minimal POPs so we will keep forecast dry. There could be a sprinkle here and there but the vast majority of the night will be dry. For Sunday and Sunday night, Upper level wave passes by and there will be a few light rain showers as the wave was moisture starved. We have slight chance POPs in central NY/northeast PA but much of the day and night should be dry. We followed NBM closely but raised POPs a tad for Sunday afternoon. For Monday, upper level trough moves southward across New England with wrap around moisture affecting much of our forecast area hence we have slight chance to chance POPs for showers and even a few thunderstorms. Monday night should see the activity wind down with high pressure building in. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --For Tuesday into Wednesday, another wave will ride over a developing upper level ridge and keep some low chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Thursday models diverge some but continue to show some chance for more showers and thunderstorms. We will stick close to NBM this period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. The exception will be fog at ELM and potentially RME. Guidance favors LIFR visibilities at ELM but does not have anything at RME. Looking at model soundings, there is certainly potential for fog or possibly low stratus at RME. Gusty winds become calmer this evening and will be calm all throughout Friday as well. Fair weather clouds this afternoon will eventually give way to clear skies. .Outlook... Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Saturday morning. Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...DJN AVIATION...BTL