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191
FXUS61 KBGM 221318
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
918 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level low will get ready to pull away from
the region later today, though a few brief and isolated showers
can`t be ruled out this afternoon as we remain under its
influence. Drier and warmer conditions will return Friday and
through the weekend, with shower chances increasing again early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
915 AM Update...
Winds were touched up as observations were lighter than
forecasted early this morning, but are still expected to become
gusty this afternoon. Sky cover was also adjusted by increasing
values across the eastern half of the region. Clouds are
drifting south as some are losing the blue, sunny skies they
woke up to. This mid-level clouds will eventually give way to
mostly clear skies by the end of the day.

Previous Discussion...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion
on track.

155 AM Update...
An upper level low will remain stalled out over northern New
England most of today, but it will finally begin moving away
tonight. With cyclonic flow persisting over the region today,
any weak disturbances could kick off a few showers again this
afternoon. Models have been struggling with precip in the past
24 hours or so, but the two HREF members that handled precip
coverage reasonably well on Wednesday (ARW and NSSL WRF) are
again producing isolated showers this afternoon, mostly over the
higher terrain of the Twin Tiers/NEPA and north of the Thruway.
Forecast soundings show moisture is lacking, but PWAT values
will be similar to yesterday. With the upper low weakening, and
models suggesting weaker shortwave troughs dropping down from
the north, the precip coverage and QPF will be down a tick or
two from yesterday, but not gone completely.

Max temperatures will recover a few degrees from Wednesday`s
highs, but will still be around 5 degrees below normal.

Any showers will be diurnal and will dissipate by sunset. Drier
conditions and warming temperatures can be expected heading into
Friday, as low-amplitude ridging takes over, and drier westerly
flow aloft moves in. Expect highs to be within a degree or two
of normal Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure still looks to be firmly in place Friday night and
Saturday over the region. So a fairly persistent mostly sunny
pattern should continue. Temperatures may start off Saturday fairly
chilly again due to radiational cooling in the low and mid
50`s with afternoon highs pushing 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An omega block still looks to form over the Ohio Valley. Several mid-
level disturbances and possible upper level low look to dive
south into the region early next week. Overall ensemble trends
have trended upward with the potential shower coverage early
next week. Opted to have Wednesday feature the highest shower
and thunderstorm chances with the potential for a stronger
frontal boundary pushing closer to the region.

Overall, instability and deep moisture look rather limited at this
time Sunday through Wednesday. Right now modeled CAPE values
generally average around 500 J/KG in the afternoon hours with 20
knots or less of 0-6KM bulk shear as well. For now, this would limit
any potential for thunderstorms to produce anything outside of
thunder and lightning. If we do get a more pronounced upper level
low like the GFS has, some small hail would be possible in the
afternoon hours with any shower or thunderstorm Monday and
Tuesday.

With more in the way of clouds and some chances for showers highs
should stay around or a little above 80 degrees. Given slightly
increased moisture lows will have hard time falling below 60
each night Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR ceiling currently moving into KRME and KSYR. Likely
will take a few hours to lift likely around 14Z. VFR elsewhere
for the day, a brief VFR shower can not be ruled out either. Fog
potential overnight but still too much uncertainity for TAF
mention. Highest chance at KELM.

.Outlook...
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the
region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and Saturday.

Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MWG