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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --639 FXUS61 KBGM 221044 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 644 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level low will get ready to pull away from the region later today, though a few brief and isolated showers can`t be ruled out this afternoon as we remain under its influence. Drier and warmer conditions will return Friday and through the weekend, with shower chances increasing again early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion on track. 155 AM Update... An upper level low will remain stalled out over northern New England most of today, but it will finally begin moving away tonight. With cyclonic flow persisting over the region today, any weak disturbances could kick off a few showers again this afternoon. Models have been struggling with precip in the past 24 hours or so, but the two HREF members that handled precip coverage reasonably well on Wednesday (ARW and NSSL WRF) are again producing isolated showers this afternoon, mostly over the higher terrain of the Twin Tiers/NEPA and north of the Thruway. Forecast soundings show moisture is lacking, but PWAT values will be similar to yesterday. With the upper low weakening, and models suggesting weaker shortwave troughs dropping down from the north, the precip coverage and QPF will be down a tick or two from yesterday, but not gone completely. Max temperatures will recover a few degrees from Wednesday`s highs, but will still be around 5 degrees below normal. Any showers will be diurnal and will dissipate by sunset. Drier conditions and warming temperatures can be expected heading into Friday, as low-amplitude ridging takes over, and drier westerly flow aloft moves in. Expect highs to be within a degree or two of normal Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure still looks to be firmly in place Friday night and Saturday over the region. So a fairly persistent mostly sunny pattern should continue. Temperatures may start off Saturday fairly chilly again due to radiational cooling in the low and mid 50`s with afternoon highs pushing 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An omega block still looks to form over the Ohio Valley. Several mid- level disturbances and possible upper level low look to dive south into the region early next week. Overall ensemble trends have trended upward with the potential shower coverage early next week. Opted to have Wednesday feature the highest shower and thunderstorm chances with the potential for a stronger frontal boundary pushing closer to the region. Overall, instability and deep moisture look rather limited at this time Sunday through Wednesday. Right now modeled CAPE values generally average around 500 J/KG in the afternoon hours with 20 knots or less of 0-6KM bulk shear as well. For now, this would limit any potential for thunderstorms to produce anything outside of thunder and lightning. If we do get a more pronounced upper level low like the GFS has, some small hail would be possible in the afternoon hours with any shower or thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday. With more in the way of clouds and some chances for showers highs should stay around or a little above 80 degrees. Given slightly increased moisture lows will have hard time falling below 60 each night Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --IFR/MVFR ceiling currently moving into KRME and KSYR. Likely will take a few hours to lift likely around 14Z. VFR elsewhere for the day, a brief VFR shower can not be ruled out either. Fog potential overnight but still too much uncertainity for TAF mention. Highest chance at KELM. .Outlook... Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and Saturday. Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MWG