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145
FXUS61 KBGM 220556
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
156 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving upper level low will get ready to pull away from
the region later today, though a few brief and isolated showers
can`t be ruled out this afternoon as we remain under its
influence. Drier and warmer conditions will return Friday and
through the weekend, with shower chances increasing again early
next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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155 AM Update...
An upper level low will remain stalled out over northern New
England most of today, but it will finally begin moving away
tonight. With cyclonic flow persisting over the region today,
any weak disturbances could kick off a few showers again this
afternoon. Models have been struggling with precip in the past
24 hours or so, but the two HREF members that handled precip
coverage reasonably well on Wednesday (ARW and NSSL WRF) are
again producing isolated showers this afternoon, mostly over the
higher terrain of the Twin Tiers/NEPA and north of the Thruway.
Forecast soundings show moisture is lacking, but PWAT values
will be similar to yesterday. With the upper low weakening, and
models suggesting weaker shortwave troughs dropping down from
the north, the precip coverage and QPF will be down a tick or
two from yesterday, but not gone completely.

Max temperatures will recover a few degrees from Wednesday`s
highs, but will still be around 5 degrees below normal.

Any showers will be diurnal and will dissipate by sunset. Drier
conditions and warming temperatures can be expected heading into
Friday, as low-amplitude ridging takes over, and drier westerly
flow aloft moves in. Expect highs to be within a degree or two
of normal Friday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday,the upper Level low will finally head east into the
Maritimes. This will put NY and PA under the subsidence region
behind the trough. This will allow a surface high to build in and
out area will dry out with fair weather and more sunshine. 850 mb
temperatures will rebound to around 10C which translates into highs
back into the 70s which is more seasonable for late August.

This high will remain over NY and PA into Saturday / Saturday Night
with continued warming trend as southerly flow develops.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with more fair weather which
will last into Saturday night. NBM is dry for now and we will keep.

For Sunday, another upper level trough will drop south toward New
England with an upper level ridge popping up across the central US.
Models diverge as to QPF Sunday for our area so we will stick close
to NBM which has limited POPs Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early next week, upper level low drops south off the New England
coast on the Euro and CMC with the GFS farther west. Models diverge
here. NBM POPs are fairly light and giving the more northerly flow
and drier air, so we will stick with the drier NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A brief shower or two can`t be completely ruled out at SYR or
RME through the overnight hours, but otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail with scattered mid-level clouds around the area.
Light NW flow and cloud cover are expected to prevent valley fog
formation.

Isolated showers will return this (Thu) afternoon, most likely
occurring across the Southern Tier of NY into NEPA, as well as
around RME. Probabilities are still too low to mention outside
of VCSH at BGM and AVP in the afternoon.

Any showers will be diurnal in nature and will diminish by
sunset, with mostly clear skies prevailing in the evening
hours.

.Outlook...
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the
region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and Saturday.

Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MPH