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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --145 FXUS61 KBGM 220556 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 156 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A slow moving upper level low will get ready to pull away from the region later today, though a few brief and isolated showers can`t be ruled out this afternoon as we remain under its influence. Drier and warmer conditions will return Friday and through the weekend, with shower chances increasing again early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --155 AM Update... An upper level low will remain stalled out over northern New England most of today, but it will finally begin moving away tonight. With cyclonic flow persisting over the region today, any weak disturbances could kick off a few showers again this afternoon. Models have been struggling with precip in the past 24 hours or so, but the two HREF members that handled precip coverage reasonably well on Wednesday (ARW and NSSL WRF) are again producing isolated showers this afternoon, mostly over the higher terrain of the Twin Tiers/NEPA and north of the Thruway. Forecast soundings show moisture is lacking, but PWAT values will be similar to yesterday. With the upper low weakening, and models suggesting weaker shortwave troughs dropping down from the north, the precip coverage and QPF will be down a tick or two from yesterday, but not gone completely. Max temperatures will recover a few degrees from Wednesday`s highs, but will still be around 5 degrees below normal. Any showers will be diurnal and will dissipate by sunset. Drier conditions and warming temperatures can be expected heading into Friday, as low-amplitude ridging takes over, and drier westerly flow aloft moves in. Expect highs to be within a degree or two of normal Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For Friday,the upper Level low will finally head east into the Maritimes. This will put NY and PA under the subsidence region behind the trough. This will allow a surface high to build in and out area will dry out with fair weather and more sunshine. 850 mb temperatures will rebound to around 10C which translates into highs back into the 70s which is more seasonable for late August. This high will remain over NY and PA into Saturday / Saturday Night with continued warming trend as southerly flow develops. Temperatures will continue to moderate with more fair weather which will last into Saturday night. NBM is dry for now and we will keep. For Sunday, another upper level trough will drop south toward New England with an upper level ridge popping up across the central US. Models diverge as to QPF Sunday for our area so we will stick close to NBM which has limited POPs Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Early next week, upper level low drops south off the New England coast on the Euro and CMC with the GFS farther west. Models diverge here. NBM POPs are fairly light and giving the more northerly flow and drier air, so we will stick with the drier NBM. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A brief shower or two can`t be completely ruled out at SYR or RME through the overnight hours, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with scattered mid-level clouds around the area. Light NW flow and cloud cover are expected to prevent valley fog formation. Isolated showers will return this (Thu) afternoon, most likely occurring across the Southern Tier of NY into NEPA, as well as around RME. Probabilities are still too low to mention outside of VCSH at BGM and AVP in the afternoon. Any showers will be diurnal in nature and will diminish by sunset, with mostly clear skies prevailing in the evening hours. .Outlook... Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and Saturday. Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...DJN AVIATION...MPH