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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --924 FXUS61 KBGM 231902 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions through the majority of the weekend. Weak areas of low pressure will bring chances for rain showers most days next week, with thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --255 PM Update... High pressure will be in control through the near term period. Warm and quiet conditions are in store for the first half of the weekend. Before jumping to the weekend, there is tonight. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. This forecast is slightly below most guidance as skies will be mostly clear. With light winds expected, conditions should be favorable for fog to develop again tonight. Similarly to this morning, fog will be more likely in the valleys, but could creep up the hills some while the highest elevations stay clear. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday, maxing out in the mid 70s to low 80s. Then overnight, temperatures will only fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Some model guidance wants to bring a passing shower or two through the region overnight as a weak shortwave sweeps through. Model soundings are fairly dry just above the surface and do not show much of a moist layer that would be supportive of rain. Because of this, conditions are kept dry overnight. Valley fog cannot be ruled out as skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 220 PM Update... High pressure will continue to be in place at the surface through Sunday night. However, an upper level trough and mid- level shortwave will slide into northern New England Sunday morning. Instability increases to 500-1000 j/kg through the afternoon with 0-6km bulk shear values hovering around 25kts, so the trough to the NE of the CWA could provide enough broad lift to overcome the surface high and trigger a few isolated afternoon rain showers with a rumble of thunder. Available moisture for shower development is low, with PWATs averaging around 1.0 in through the afternoon and evening so long lasting heavy rain is not expected. Temperatures on Sunday will continue on the warming trend, topping out in the low to mid 80s. Isolated rain shower chances continue through the overnight hours as the trough slowly slides SE and the center moves closer to the CWA. Temperatures will be seasonable, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. The trough will continue to hang out just east of the CWA on Monday. Moderate mid-level lapse rates around 6.8C combined with CAPE values averaging around 700j/kg and bulk shear around 25kts will bring a chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region, with the best chance east of the Finger Lakes. A weak jet streak moving over the region Monday afternoon will also help to enhance lift and generate showers. Temps climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. A few showers may linger over the Catskills into the evening hours, but should dissipate fairly quickly as the trough digs into southern New England and high pressure builds into the region from the west. Temps Monday night will be in the upper 60s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 240 PM Update... The main weather feature for this period will be a low pressure system and associated cold front passage occurring mid week. High pressure will remain in place Tuesday, keeping conditions calm and temps in the low to mid 80s. The ridge sitting over the eastern US could slowly slide south Wednesday, which would allow for a shortwave north of the Great Lakes to move into the region Wednesday or Thursday. Guidance is still pretty uncertain how this system will develop as the strength and timing of the shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes and into our region remains highly variable. Showers chances look to occur Wed or Thurs but clarity on timing and duration will have to be sussed out in the next few model runs. Temps will also depend on the passage of the cold front, with ensembles showing 3-4 standard deviations for highs on Wednesday and Thursday. Because of all this uncertainty, the current forecast relies on the latest NBM. With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak southerly and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a warmer airmass Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or thunderstorm looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again highs should be able to get into the 80`s after starting around 60. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Mainly VFR over the next 24 hours. Valley fog is expected again tonight, with ELM likely falling into LIFR early Saturday morning. Soundings also support fog at RME, but the last two nights have resulted in lower ceilings, so a tempo was added for MVFR ceilings at RME. After 13z or shortly after, both sites are expected to improve back to VFR. Winds will be fairly light throughout this TAF period. .Outlook... Saturday Night...Mainly VFR; patchy fog possible, mainly at ELM. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chances for showers and associated restrictions.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...BTL