-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
924
FXUS61 KBGM 231902
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions through the
majority of the weekend. Weak areas of low pressure will bring
chances for rain showers most days next week, with thunderstorms
possible Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above average next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
255 PM Update...

High pressure will be in control through the near term period. Warm
and quiet conditions are in store for the first half of the weekend.
Before jumping to the weekend, there is tonight. Temperatures will
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. This forecast is slightly below
most guidance as skies will be mostly clear. With light winds
expected, conditions should be favorable for fog to develop again
tonight. Similarly to this morning, fog will be more likely in the
valleys, but could creep up the hills some while the highest
elevations stay clear.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday, maxing out in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Then overnight, temperatures will only fall into
the mid 50s to low 60s. Some model guidance wants to bring a passing
shower or two through the region overnight as a weak shortwave
sweeps through. Model soundings are fairly dry just above the
surface and do not show much of a moist layer that would be
supportive of rain. Because of this, conditions are kept dry
overnight. Valley fog cannot be ruled out as skies will be mostly
clear and winds will be light.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

High pressure will continue to be in place at the surface
through Sunday night. However, an upper level trough and mid-
level shortwave will slide into northern New England Sunday
morning. Instability increases to 500-1000 j/kg through the
afternoon with 0-6km bulk shear values hovering around 25kts,
so the trough to the NE of the CWA could provide enough broad
lift to overcome the surface high and trigger a few isolated
afternoon rain showers with a rumble of thunder. Available
moisture for shower development is low, with PWATs averaging
around 1.0 in through the afternoon and evening so long lasting
heavy rain is not expected. Temperatures on Sunday will continue
on the warming trend, topping out in the low to mid 80s.
Isolated rain shower chances continue through the overnight
hours as the trough slowly slides SE and the center moves closer
to the CWA. Temperatures will be seasonable, with lows in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

The trough will continue to hang out just east of the CWA on
Monday. Moderate mid-level lapse rates around 6.8C combined with
CAPE values averaging around 700j/kg and bulk shear around 25kts
will bring a chance for scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the region, with the best chance east of the
Finger Lakes. A weak jet streak moving over the region Monday
afternoon will also help to enhance lift and generate showers.
Temps climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.
A few showers may linger over the Catskills into the evening
hours, but should dissipate fairly quickly as the trough digs
into southern New England and high pressure builds into the
region from the west. Temps Monday night will be in the upper
60s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM Update...

The main weather feature for this period will be a low pressure
system and associated cold front passage occurring mid week.

High pressure will remain in place Tuesday, keeping conditions
calm and temps in the low to mid 80s. The ridge sitting over the
eastern US could slowly slide south Wednesday, which would allow
for a shortwave north of the Great Lakes to move into the region
Wednesday or Thursday. Guidance is still pretty uncertain how
this system will develop as the strength and timing of the
shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes and into our region
remains highly variable. Showers chances look to occur Wed or
Thurs but clarity on timing and duration will have to be sussed
out in the next few model runs. Temps will also depend on the
passage of the cold front, with ensembles showing 3-4 standard
deviations for highs on Wednesday and Thursday. Because of all
this uncertainty, the current forecast relies on the latest
NBM.

With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak
southerly and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a
warmer airmass Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or
thunderstorm looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again
highs should be able to get into the 80`s after starting around
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR over the next 24 hours. Valley fog is expected again
tonight, with ELM likely falling into LIFR early Saturday
morning. Soundings also support fog at RME, but the last two
nights have resulted in lower ceilings, so a tempo was added for
MVFR ceilings at RME. After 13z or shortly after, both sites are
expected to improve back to VFR. Winds will be fairly light
throughout this TAF period.

.Outlook...

Saturday Night...Mainly VFR; patchy fog possible, mainly at ELM.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chances for showers and
associated restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL