Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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312 FXUS61 KBGM 211035 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 635 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast US today and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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635 AM update... Adjusted the PoP/Weather forecast for the next 12 hours to account for the scattered nature of the showers out there currently and the expected push of high chances and more widespread showers and storms later this morning and into the afternoon. Incorporated latest observations, but otherwise, no major changes made to the forecast. 409 AM update... Primary items of concern today and Thursday are centered around the patchy fog this morning, the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours today...the lingering low chances for rain showers near Lake Ontario tonight and early Thursday with warmer air expected later in the day Thu. Some patchy fog has developed in the valley locations of the southern tier of NY this morning. The combination of clearing pockets and cooling temperatures to the dew point, along with calm winds and a decoupled boundary layer has led to isolated favorable fog conditions. The fog should lift and mix out by 10 AM this morning. A stout 500mb low currently straddling the Ontario/Quebec/NY borders this morning will track to the southeast near the VT/NY/MA tri-state area and bring with it an embedded short wave on the back side of the system that will sweep across eastern Lake Ontario and central NY. This wave is expected to have slightly higher moisture content and also cooler temperatures aloft associated with it. The combination of this wave passing through, cool temperatures aloft (850mb temps around +4 deg C) in line with warming afternoon sfc temps into the mid 60s should be sufficient for steep low level lapse rates and some weak convective initiation this afternoon. There may also be a modest lake-induced component to instability downstream of Lake Ontario where as much as 500-700 J/kg of LI CAPE could advect inland and aid in triggering a few thunderstorms. If any storm does form, the threats will likely be confined to gusty winds, lightning and small hail. Even outside thunderstorms, some convective showers could produce some pea-size hail. The low freezing levels with this air mass will make favorable conditions for freezing precipitation in the form of graupel. Most favorable locations for storms will be from around Auburn/Syracuse east to Utica and south to Tully/Norwich. The short wave and primary forcing for this precip will be exiting the area to the east quickly later today and with the loss of diurnal heating after 6 PM, the threat for convection will diminish rapidly this evening. The persistent N/NW flow will keep the low chances for light rain showers in the Syracuse/Utica area into tonight, but the trend will be to slowly dry conditions out into Thu morning. High pressure will build in from the west/sw on Thursday with clearing skies and rising temperatures. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The combination of warmer temperatures and plenty of sun later in the afternoon will make for a very pleasant day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds into the area Thursday night and Friday. With clear skies, light winds and residual moisture fog could develop and become widespread toward sunrise Friday. It looks like a chilly start Friday with favorable conditions for radiational cooling as well with temperatures around 50. Plenty of sunshine expected under the high pressure Friday allowing temperatures to get well into the 70`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Our region then ends up on the front end of an omega block for the weekend into early next week. The ensemble signal for a disturbance or two moving from the north into the region is still present. However, given track and timing differences within the ensemble spread opted to just to keep any chance for showers and thunderstorms in the slight range at this point Sunday and Monday. A warmer airmass should move into the region this weekend as well with temperatures ticking upward each day with lows near 60 and highs getting into the 80`s each day Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An initial round of isolated rain showers is moving north to south across w-central NY this morning and conditions are still expected to become more favorable for more widespread rain showers with a few weak thunderstorms after 15Z today, especially from SYR/RME to ITH and BGM and points east. Confidence in timing and location of TS continues to not be high enough to include in the TAFs. There could be a few instances of small hail/graupel, even outside of TS given the cold air aloft. Will likely see ceilings mostly VFR but in and out of MVFR through the day across the NY terminals with active northwest flow and periods of rain showers. The rain will abate after 23Z and ceilings are expected to settle in at VFR through at least 06Z. There could be some MVFR fog at RME, ITH and BGM between 07-12Z Thu morning. Northwest winds will become gusty around 15 to 20 kt after 14Z this morning. Winds start to subside and back to the west/sw after 00Z later today. .Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...BTL/BJT