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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --003 FXUS61 KBGM 190745 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 345 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A frontal system will pass through today with another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. While Tuesday will be mostly dry and cool, showers return by mid-week as a low pressure system is slow to move out of the Northeast. Quieter and warmer conditions are expected for the second half of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --345 AM Update... A frontal system will bring showers to the region beginning early this morning. This front will pass through the region today and exit by this evening. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, especially east of I-81. Instability looks to be limited as MLCAPE is only modeled to be around 500 to 750 J/kg. Shear values are also low at around 20 lows. While SPC clips the region (Sullivan and Pike Counties) with a Marginal Risk for severe storms, there is not much that indicates that stronger storms will develop in our region today. It is possible that daytime heating helps these areas become more unstable than forecasted late today. WPC also has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for most areas east of I-81. Some of the short-term guidance does have PWATs nearing 1.7 inches. Expected rainfall amounts are low, but there is potential for localized heavier showers. If a heavier shower were to pass over an area that had flooding issues yesterday, then flash flooding could occur again. Some showers will be possible overnight as a shortwave trough moves through the region. These showers will be light and quick to move through. Drier air moves into the region Tuesday, so conditions will quiet down, but only briefly. An upper-low dips south as wraparound moisture is advected in from the north. Spotty showers will develop late in the day over portions of CNY. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s today with a large gradient from north to south. With the showers moving in, those in CNY will likely reach their highs by midday while those further south will have more time to warm up. Much cooler air will fill in behind the front tonight as T850 drops into the single digits.Forecasted lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Extensive cloud cover will help keep us from reaching record lows though. Temperatures will only climb into the 60s Tuesday, though the Wyoming Valley may exceed 70.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 305 AM Update... Chilly and unsettled conditions are anticipated midweek. An anomalously deep and compact upper low will pivot across the Northeast during midweek with much cooler-than-normal temperatures as well as scattered showers, especially in Central New York where lake enhancement will occur. You read that correctly, a lake effect influence in August, which is quite doable considering 850mb temperatures projected in the models as low as 3-4 degrees Celsius versus water temperatures closer to 20 degrees Celsius. Ensemble data shows the return interval of these chilly 850mb temperatures for this date, to be less than one day per 10 years. While forecast temperatures are not at record lows, since there will be cloud cover and mixing, they will be within a few to several degrees of record low maximums for Binghamton-Syracuse, and more like 8-9 degrees from record low maximum for Scranton. To summarize, daytime temperatures 10-14 degrees below average will definitely feel like an abruptly early taste of Fall. Models project the upper low core dropping directly over the area Wednesday, with temperatures starting off at morning lows of only mid 40s to lower 50s. Cyclonic chilly flow around it appears likely to bring a deeper lobe of moisture, helped by lake enhancement as well, to yield plenty of clouds. Chances for showers had to be adjusted significantly up into the high chance to likely range, particularly for Central New York Wednesday. Amounts will not be much, only a tenth to quarter of an inch at most with majority less than a tenth of an inch. But at least scattered showers will certainly be around for Central NY into the Twin Tiers, and a few stretching even deeper into Pennsylvania. Highs will be only in the 60s for most locations. Wednesday night, instead of northwesterly flow with gusts of 10-20 mph like during the daytime, there will be backing of lighter winds to westerly or even west-southwesterly. This will diminish the lake influence to mainly along and north of the NY Thruway, ending showers for most of the area as the upper low also starts to head northeast of the area. While we will still be within its outer periphery Thursday, after lows again of mid 40s-lower 50s, temperatures will moderate somewhat to highs of upper 60s mid 70s. While Wednesday will have plenty of clouds, more sunshine will be managed on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 305 AM Update... A fairly quiet period is foreseen as we head into next weekend, with temperatures trending from around average to even slightly above. The departing upper low will finally open up and scoot out of the Northeast, making way for an approaching ridge. A large heat dome is projected over the Southern to Central Plains late this week, with a warm and dry ridge riding over it across the Upper Midwest-Western Great Lakes. This will eventually nudge its way our direction, allowing temperatures to warm from 70s-near 80 Friday, to mostly lower-mid 80s by Sunday if not even some upper 80s in our lower elevations. Dewpoints will initially be comfortable, but by Sunday may trend more into the 60s to add a little humidity. We will have to see if any weak waves riding through the top of the ridge, may harness the warmth and humidity for a small chance of thunderstorms around late Sunday-next Monday. For now though, dry conditions appear most likely to prevail. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers have ended for now but another round moves into the region just prior to 12z this morning. Widespread IFR, possibly LIFR at times, restrictions are expected due to low ceilings. Visibilities will also be reduced at times. Even after showers move out, restrictions will likely linger throughout the rest of the daytime hours. Then after 00z tonight, conditions begin to improve to Fuel Alt to MVFR. Guidance also introduces some VFR near the end of the period for SYR, RME, and ITH but there was not enough lines to include during this TAF set. One note for BGM. Ceilings are currently at LIFR with some fog as well. While confidence is low, it looks like conditions will be similar to last night where ceilings were low all morning, even falling into Airport Mins for many hours. Model guidance does not have restrictions this low, so last night`s conditions were used as guidance for this TAF update. Winds are light and variable now but the next round of showers will be brought by a frontal boundary. As this front passes through, winds will become gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Winds will remain breezy behind the front before becoming calmer again tonight. .Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR; lingering showers possible, especially over the Central NY terminals. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BTL