-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
127
FXUS61 KBGM 190712
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system continuing to slowly move east will
lead to additional showers and embedded thunderstorms into
Monday. Drier and cooler conditions arrive Tuesday. A few
showers may return to the area mid-week, and high temperatures
will remain below average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1225 AM Update...

Some showers remain as the flooding issues from earlier have
subsided. The Flood Watch was allowed to expire at midnight. For
this update, fog has developed in some locations due to the
added moisture from rain today. With that, patchy fog was added
to the forecast for most of the region. CAMs are showing a
little bit of a break from the showers tonight before the next
round pushes in. PoPs were updated through the early afternoon
hours based on the latest guidance. Models have slowed down the
next round slightly, but generally changes were not much
different from the previous forecast.

Previous discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in intensity and
coverage from west to east tonight, but isolated showers will
persist through morning. A cold front will push through the area
Monday morning into the early afternoon with showers and
isolated thunderstorms again increasing in coverage. CAMS
suggest a weak convective line may develop ahead of the front in
the early afternoon, mainly affecting areas east of I-81.

Cooler temperatures will filter into the area through the day,
and high temps may be set in the morning, with afternoon
temperatures falling into the 60s. Monday night will be chilly,
with lows dropping into the lower-50s.

The center low of the trough dives southward Tuesday, and may
bring some light rain showers over Central NY during the
afternoon. As the center low pushes southward, it`ll bring some
colder Canadian air down into Central NY and NE PA, bringing
high temperatures down to the low to mid 60s Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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305 AM Update...
Chilly and unsettled conditions are anticipated midweek.

An anomalously deep and compact upper low will pivot across the
Northeast during midweek with much cooler-than-normal
temperatures as well as scattered showers, especially in Central
New York where lake enhancement will occur. You read that
correctly, a lake effect influence in August, which is quite
doable considering 850mb temperatures projected in the models as
low as 3-4 degrees Celsius versus water temperatures closer to
20 degrees Celsius. Ensemble data shows the return interval of
these chilly 850mb temperatures for this date, to be less than
one day per 10 years. While forecast temperatures are not at
record lows, since there will be cloud cover and mixing, they
will be within a few to several degrees of record low maximums
for Binghamton-Syracuse, and more like 8-9 degrees from record
low maximum for Scranton. To summarize, daytime temperatures
10-14 degrees below average will definitely feel like an
abruptly early taste of Fall.

Models project the upper low core dropping directly over the
area Wednesday, with temperatures starting off at morning lows
of only mid 40s to lower 50s. Cyclonic chilly flow around it
appears likely to bring a deeper lobe of moisture, helped by
lake enhancement as well, to yield plenty of clouds. Chances for
showers had to be adjusted significantly up into the high
chance to likely range, particularly for Central New York
Wednesday. Amounts will not be much, only a tenth to quarter of
an inch at most with majority less than a tenth of an inch. But
at least scattered showers will certainly be around for Central
NY into the Twin Tiers, and a few stretching even deeper into
Pennsylvania. Highs will be only in the 60s for most locations.

Wednesday night, instead of northwesterly flow with gusts of
10-20 mph like during the daytime, there will be backing of
lighter winds to westerly or even west-southwesterly. This will
diminish the lake influence to mainly along and north of the NY
Thruway, ending showers for most of the area as the upper low
also starts to head northeast of the area. While we will still
be within its outer periphery Thursday, after lows again of mid
40s-lower 50s, temperatures will moderate somewhat to highs of
upper 60s mid 70s. While Wednesday will have plenty of clouds,
more sunshine will be managed on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
305 AM Update...
A fairly quiet period is foreseen as we head into next weekend,
with temperatures trending from around average to even slightly
above.

The departing upper low will finally open up and scoot out of
the Northeast, making way for an approaching ridge. A large heat
dome is projected over the Southern to Central Plains late this
week, with a warm and dry ridge riding over it across the Upper
Midwest-Western Great Lakes. This will eventually nudge its way
our direction, allowing temperatures to warm from 70s-near 80
Friday, to mostly lower-mid 80s by Sunday if not even some upper
80s in our lower elevations. Dewpoints will initially be
comfortable, but by Sunday may trend more into the 60s to add a
little humidity. We will have to see if any weak waves riding
through the top of the ridge, may harness the warmth and
humidity for a small chance of thunderstorms around late
Sunday-next Monday. For now though, dry conditions appear most
likely to prevail.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers have ended for now but another round moves into the
region just prior to 12z this morning. Widespread IFR, possibly
LIFR at times, restrictions are expected due to low ceilings.
Visibilities will also be reduced at times. Even after showers
move out, restrictions will likely linger throughout the rest of
the daytime hours. Then after 00z tonight, conditions begin to
improve to Fuel Alt to MVFR. Guidance also introduces some VFR
near the end of the period for SYR, RME, and ITH but there was
not enough lines to include during this TAF set.

One note for BGM. Ceilings are currently at LIFR with some fog
as well. While confidence is low, it looks like conditions will
be similar to last night where ceilings were low all morning,
even falling into Airport Mins for many hours. Model guidance
does not have restrictions this low, so last night`s conditions
were used as guidance for this TAF update.

Winds are light and variable now but the next round of showers
will be brought by a frontal boundary. As this front passes
through, winds will become gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20
kts. Winds will remain breezy behind the front before becoming
calmer again tonight.

.Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR; lingering showers
possible, especially over the Central NY terminals.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the
region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BTL