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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --127 FXUS61 KBGM 190712 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 312 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level storm system continuing to slowly move east will lead to additional showers and embedded thunderstorms into Monday. Drier and cooler conditions arrive Tuesday. A few showers may return to the area mid-week, and high temperatures will remain below average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --1225 AM Update... Some showers remain as the flooding issues from earlier have subsided. The Flood Watch was allowed to expire at midnight. For this update, fog has developed in some locations due to the added moisture from rain today. With that, patchy fog was added to the forecast for most of the region. CAMs are showing a little bit of a break from the showers tonight before the next round pushes in. PoPs were updated through the early afternoon hours based on the latest guidance. Models have slowed down the next round slightly, but generally changes were not much different from the previous forecast. Previous discussion... Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in intensity and coverage from west to east tonight, but isolated showers will persist through morning. A cold front will push through the area Monday morning into the early afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms again increasing in coverage. CAMS suggest a weak convective line may develop ahead of the front in the early afternoon, mainly affecting areas east of I-81. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area through the day, and high temps may be set in the morning, with afternoon temperatures falling into the 60s. Monday night will be chilly, with lows dropping into the lower-50s. The center low of the trough dives southward Tuesday, and may bring some light rain showers over Central NY during the afternoon. As the center low pushes southward, it`ll bring some colder Canadian air down into Central NY and NE PA, bringing high temperatures down to the low to mid 60s Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --305 AM Update... Chilly and unsettled conditions are anticipated midweek. An anomalously deep and compact upper low will pivot across the Northeast during midweek with much cooler-than-normal temperatures as well as scattered showers, especially in Central New York where lake enhancement will occur. You read that correctly, a lake effect influence in August, which is quite doable considering 850mb temperatures projected in the models as low as 3-4 degrees Celsius versus water temperatures closer to 20 degrees Celsius. Ensemble data shows the return interval of these chilly 850mb temperatures for this date, to be less than one day per 10 years. While forecast temperatures are not at record lows, since there will be cloud cover and mixing, they will be within a few to several degrees of record low maximums for Binghamton-Syracuse, and more like 8-9 degrees from record low maximum for Scranton. To summarize, daytime temperatures 10-14 degrees below average will definitely feel like an abruptly early taste of Fall. Models project the upper low core dropping directly over the area Wednesday, with temperatures starting off at morning lows of only mid 40s to lower 50s. Cyclonic chilly flow around it appears likely to bring a deeper lobe of moisture, helped by lake enhancement as well, to yield plenty of clouds. Chances for showers had to be adjusted significantly up into the high chance to likely range, particularly for Central New York Wednesday. Amounts will not be much, only a tenth to quarter of an inch at most with majority less than a tenth of an inch. But at least scattered showers will certainly be around for Central NY into the Twin Tiers, and a few stretching even deeper into Pennsylvania. Highs will be only in the 60s for most locations. Wednesday night, instead of northwesterly flow with gusts of 10-20 mph like during the daytime, there will be backing of lighter winds to westerly or even west-southwesterly. This will diminish the lake influence to mainly along and north of the NY Thruway, ending showers for most of the area as the upper low also starts to head northeast of the area. While we will still be within its outer periphery Thursday, after lows again of mid 40s-lower 50s, temperatures will moderate somewhat to highs of upper 60s mid 70s. While Wednesday will have plenty of clouds, more sunshine will be managed on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --305 AM Update... A fairly quiet period is foreseen as we head into next weekend, with temperatures trending from around average to even slightly above. The departing upper low will finally open up and scoot out of the Northeast, making way for an approaching ridge. A large heat dome is projected over the Southern to Central Plains late this week, with a warm and dry ridge riding over it across the Upper Midwest-Western Great Lakes. This will eventually nudge its way our direction, allowing temperatures to warm from 70s-near 80 Friday, to mostly lower-mid 80s by Sunday if not even some upper 80s in our lower elevations. Dewpoints will initially be comfortable, but by Sunday may trend more into the 60s to add a little humidity. We will have to see if any weak waves riding through the top of the ridge, may harness the warmth and humidity for a small chance of thunderstorms around late Sunday-next Monday. For now though, dry conditions appear most likely to prevail.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers have ended for now but another round moves into the region just prior to 12z this morning. Widespread IFR, possibly LIFR at times, restrictions are expected due to low ceilings. Visibilities will also be reduced at times. Even after showers move out, restrictions will likely linger throughout the rest of the daytime hours. Then after 00z tonight, conditions begin to improve to Fuel Alt to MVFR. Guidance also introduces some VFR near the end of the period for SYR, RME, and ITH but there was not enough lines to include during this TAF set. One note for BGM. Ceilings are currently at LIFR with some fog as well. While confidence is low, it looks like conditions will be similar to last night where ceilings were low all morning, even falling into Airport Mins for many hours. Model guidance does not have restrictions this low, so last night`s conditions were used as guidance for this TAF update. Winds are light and variable now but the next round of showers will be brought by a frontal boundary. As this front passes through, winds will become gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Winds will remain breezy behind the front before becoming calmer again tonight. .Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR; lingering showers possible, especially over the Central NY terminals. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPH SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BTL