![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
301 FXUS61 KBGM 190554 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 154 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level storm system continuing to slowly move east will lead to additional showers and embedded thunderstorms into Monday. Drier and cooler conditions arrive Tuesday. A few showers may return to the area mid-week, and high temperatures will remain below average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1225 AM Update... Some showers remain as the flooding issues from earlier have subsided. The Flood Watch was allowed to expire at midnight. For this update, fog has developed in some locations due to the added moisture from rain today. With that, patchy fog was added to the forecast for most of the region. CAMs are showing a little bit of a break from the showers tonight before the next round pushes in. PoPs were updated through the early afternoon hours based on the latest guidance. Models have slowed down the next round slightly, but generally changes were not much different from the previous forecast. 940 PM Update... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are tapering off and the risk for severe thunderstorms has ended, but localized downpours will linger over the next couple of hours north of NYS Thruway. Isolated showers are expected overnight, but if there are enough breaks in the clouds, there is the potential for some patchy fog to develop. 630 PM Update... Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue, especially near and east of I-81, but additional storms over W NY will drift into the far western CWA shortly. Still holding onto the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the time being, although we`re getting a little worked-over in terms of instability, and flash flooding is likely to be the primary threat going forward. 250 PM Update... An upper low over southern Ontario will weaken into an open trough as it drifts east tonight. Several shortwave troughs moving through NY/PA will be the focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Moderate instability has developed across the area as widespread cloud cover has started to erode. SPC mesoanalysis shows a sharp gradient over the Hudson Valley, with with SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg across most of our CWA. Surface analysis also suggests a weak front or convergence zone roughly along I-81, with SE winds to its east, and lighter southerly flow to its west. This boundary has also been a focal point for deeper convection stretching from NEPA into Oneida County. Models suggest low level (0-1km) shear will increase to around 20 knots across areas roughly south of I-88 in NY and NEPA later this afternoon, and there is a risk for an isolated tornado. Otherwise, the primary severe threat will be damaging wind gusts. There`s also a risk for flash flooding as storm motion is ideal for training, which we`re already seeing, especially in NEPA. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect as-is, covering the areas most sensitive to flooding due to prior rainfall. Isolated flash flooding is also possible further north, outside of the watch area. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in intensity and coverage from west to east tonight, but isolated showers will persist through morning. A cold front will push through the area Monday morning into the early afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms again increasing in coverage. CAMS suggest a weak convective line may develop ahead of the front in the early afternoon, mainly affecting areas east of I-81. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area through the day, and high temps may be set in the morning, with afternoon temperatures falling into the 60s. Monday night will be chilly, with lows dropping into the lower-50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 125 PM Update... The trough overhead the Northeast lingers through the short term period. The center low of the trough dives southward Tuesday, and may bring some light rain showers over Central NY during the daytime Wednesday. As the center low pushes southward, it`ll bring some colder Canadian air down into Central NY and NE PA, bringing high temperatures down to the low to mid 60s Tuesday, and overnight Tuesday temperatures down to the mid 40s to low 50s. Wednesday high temperatures warm very slightly to the mid 60s to low 70s, but overnight temperatures cool back down to the high 40s to low 50s overnight Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 125 PM Update: The trough finally exits off to the east during the later half of the week, and high pressure begins to build. For the rest of the week, it`s expected to be dry with temperatures warming from the low to mid 70s on Thursday to the low 80s on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers have ended for now but another round moves into the region just prior to 12z this morning. Widespread IFR, possibly LIFR at times, restrictions are expected due to low ceilings. Visibilities will also be reduced at times. Even after showers move out, restrictions will likely linger throughout the rest of the daytime hours. Then after 00z tonight, conditions begin to improve to Fuel Alt to MVFR. Guidance also introduces some VFR near the end of the period for SYR, RME, and ITH but there was not enough lines to include during this TAF set. One note for BGM. Ceilings are currently at LIFR with some fog as well. While confidence is low, it looks like conditions will be similar to last night where ceilings were low all morning, even falling into Airport Mins for many hours. Model guidance does not have restrictions this low, so last night`s conditions were used as guidance for this TAF update. Winds are light and variable now but the next round of showers will be brought by a frontal boundary. As this front passes through, winds will become gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Winds will remain breezy behind the front before becoming calmer again tonight. .Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR; lingering showers possible, especially over the Central NY terminals. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPH SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...BTL