301
FXUS61 KBGM 190554
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system continuing to slowly move east will
lead to additional showers and embedded thunderstorms into
Monday. Drier and cooler conditions arrive Tuesday. A few
showers may return to the area mid-week, and high temperatures
will remain below average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM Update...

Some showers remain as the flooding issues from earlier have
subsided. The Flood Watch was allowed to expire at midnight. For
this update, fog has developed in some locations due to the
added moisture from rain today. With that, patchy fog was added
to the forecast for most of the region. CAMs are showing a
little bit of a break from the showers tonight before the next
round pushes in. PoPs were updated through the early afternoon
hours based on the latest guidance. Models have slowed down the
next round slightly, but generally changes were not much
different from the previous forecast.

940 PM Update...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are tapering off and the
risk for severe thunderstorms has ended, but localized
downpours will linger over the next couple of hours north of NYS
Thruway. Isolated showers are expected overnight, but if there
are enough breaks in the clouds, there is the potential for some
patchy fog to develop.


630 PM Update...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue, especially near
and east of I-81, but additional storms over W NY will drift
into the far western CWA shortly. Still holding onto the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for the time being, although we`re getting a
little worked-over in terms of instability, and flash flooding
is likely to be the primary threat going forward.


250 PM Update...
An upper low over southern Ontario will weaken into an open
trough as it drifts east tonight. Several shortwave troughs
moving through NY/PA will be the focus for clusters of showers
and thunderstorms through this evening.

Moderate instability has developed across the area as widespread
cloud cover has started to erode. SPC mesoanalysis shows a sharp
gradient over the Hudson Valley, with with SBCAPE of 1500-2000
J/Kg across most of our CWA. Surface analysis also suggests a
weak front or convergence zone roughly along I-81, with SE winds
to its east, and lighter southerly flow to its west. This
boundary has also been a focal point for deeper convection
stretching from NEPA into Oneida County.

Models suggest low level (0-1km) shear will increase to around
20 knots across areas roughly south of I-88 in NY and NEPA later
this afternoon, and there is a risk for an isolated tornado.
Otherwise, the primary severe threat will be damaging wind
gusts.

There`s also a risk for flash flooding as storm motion is ideal
for training, which we`re already seeing, especially in NEPA.
The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect as-is, covering the
areas most sensitive to flooding due to prior rainfall. Isolated
flash flooding is also possible further north, outside of the
watch area.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in intensity and
coverage from west to east tonight, but isolated showers will
persist through morning. A cold front will push through the area
Monday morning into the early afternoon with showers and
isolated thunderstorms again increasing in coverage. CAMS
suggest a weak convective line may develop ahead of the front in
the early afternoon, mainly affecting areas east of I-81.

Cooler temperatures will filter into the area through the day,
and high temps may be set in the morning, with afternoon
temperatures falling into the 60s. Monday night will be chilly,
with lows dropping into the lower-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
125 PM Update...

The trough overhead the Northeast lingers through the short term
period. The center low of the trough dives southward Tuesday,
and may bring some light rain showers over Central NY during the
daytime Wednesday. As the center low pushes southward, it`ll
bring some colder Canadian air down into Central NY and NE PA,
bringing high temperatures down to the low to mid 60s Tuesday,
and overnight Tuesday temperatures down to the mid 40s to low
50s. Wednesday high temperatures warm very slightly to the mid
60s to low 70s, but overnight temperatures cool back down to the
high 40s to low 50s overnight Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
125 PM Update:

The trough finally exits off to the east during the later half
of the week, and high pressure begins to build. For the rest of
the week, it`s expected to be dry with temperatures warming from
the low to mid 70s on Thursday to the low 80s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers have ended for now but another round moves into the
region just prior to 12z this morning. Widespread IFR, possibly
LIFR at times, restrictions are expected due to low ceilings.
Visibilities will also be reduced at times. Even after showers
move out, restrictions will likely linger throughout the rest of
the daytime hours. Then after 00z tonight, conditions begin to
improve to Fuel Alt to MVFR. Guidance also introduces some VFR
near the end of the period for SYR, RME, and ITH but there was
not enough lines to include during this TAF set.

One note for BGM. Ceilings are currently at LIFR with some fog
as well. While confidence is low, it looks like conditions will
be similar to last night where ceilings were low all morning,
even falling into Airport Mins for many hours. Model guidance
does not have restrictions this low, so last night`s conditions
were used as guidance for this TAF update.

Winds are light and variable now but the next round of showers
will be brought by a frontal boundary. As this front passes
through, winds will become gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20
kts. Winds will remain breezy behind the front before becoming
calmer again tonight.

.Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR; lingering showers
possible, especially over the Central NY terminals.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the
region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BTL