![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --421 FXUS61 KBGM 230726 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 326 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will build into the region today and remain in place through most of next week. Weak areas of low pressure diving south into New England Monday and then again on Wednesday and Thursday may provide a few showers or thunderstorms.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will remain over the region through Saturday. The result will be mainly clear skies and light winds. Plenty of sunshine should send temperatures well into the 70`s for highs. At night, conditions look favorable for quick raditional cooling allowing for lows in the 50`s. The setup is also favorable for some valley fog overnight as well.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will continue to be in place at the surface through Sunday night. However, a mid-level shortwave likely tracks through New England. Deep moisture looks to be limited with PW values under an inch. A slight amount of afternoon instability up to 250 J/KG and steep low level lapse rates look to be present. This may be enough to trigger a stray shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and/or early evening hours. Temperatures look to continue a slight warming trend as well given weak southwesterly flow with highs getting into the low 80`s and lows inching closer to 60.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Model and ensemble guidance is now keying in on another upper level low dropping south over New England Monday. While limited once again lift and instability may just be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The highest chances look to be east of I-81 closer to the upper level low. With a few more clouds around, highs should be around 80 despite an increasingly warm airmass building in at the mid levels. With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak southerly and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a warmer airmass Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or thunderstorm looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again highs should be able to get into the 80`s after starting around 60. A frontal system looks to then dive southeast into the Great Lakes and New England Wednesday and Thursday. This front looks to be enough of a trigger for chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. A hot day is possible Wednesday ahead of the front with modeled 925 mb temperatures suggesting highs reach 90 in a few spots after starting around 60. However, that may be tampered down by any clouds and precipitation. Thursday should be slightly cooler given some clouds and precipitation chances. This frontal boundary may provide slightly higher bulk shear, so a potential for strong thunderstorms may become realized. Current frontal timing though is still variable with ensemble data, so uncertainity is present.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Fog is likely to form at KELM in the 07-09Z window and lift around 13Z. Fog is also possible at KITH and KRME. However, the duration of any restriction is still somewhat uncertain. .Outlook... Saturday... Morning fog possible at KELM otherwise VFR. Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers. Tuesday...VFR most likely.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MWG