-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
421
FXUS61 KBGM 230726
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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High pressure will build into the region today and remain in
place through most of next week. Weak areas of low pressure
diving south into New England Monday and then again on
Wednesday and Thursday may provide a few showers or
thunderstorms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

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High pressure will remain over the region through Saturday. The
result will be mainly clear skies and light winds. Plenty of
sunshine should send temperatures well into the 70`s for highs.
At night, conditions look favorable for quick raditional
cooling allowing for lows in the 50`s. The setup is also
favorable for some valley fog overnight as well.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

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High pressure will continue to be in place at the surface
through Sunday night. However, a mid-level shortwave likely
tracks through New England. Deep moisture looks to be limited
with PW values under an inch. A slight amount of afternoon instability
up to 250 J/KG and steep low level lapse rates look to be
present. This may be enough to trigger a stray shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon and/or early evening hours.
Temperatures look to continue a slight warming trend as well
given weak southwesterly flow with highs getting into the low
80`s and lows inching closer to 60.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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Model and ensemble guidance is now keying in on another upper
level low dropping south over New England Monday. While limited
once again lift and instability may just be enough to trigger a
few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The
highest chances look to be east of I-81 closer to the upper
level low. With a few more clouds around, highs should be around
80 despite an increasingly warm airmass building in at the mid
levels.

With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak
southerly and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a
warmer airmass Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or
thunderstorm looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again
highs should be able to get into the 80`s after starting around
60.

A frontal system looks to then dive southeast into the Great
Lakes and New England Wednesday and Thursday. This front looks
to be enough of a trigger for chances of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. A hot day is possible
Wednesday ahead of the front with modeled 925 mb temperatures
suggesting highs reach 90 in a few spots after starting around
60.

However, that may be tampered down by any clouds and
precipitation. Thursday should be slightly cooler given some
clouds and precipitation chances. This frontal boundary may
provide slightly higher bulk shear, so a potential for strong
thunderstorms may become realized. Current frontal timing though
is still variable with ensemble data, so uncertainity is
present.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Fog is likely to form at KELM
in the 07-09Z window and lift around 13Z. Fog is also possible
at KITH and KRME. However, the duration of any restriction is
still somewhat uncertain.

.Outlook...

Saturday... Morning fog possible at KELM otherwise VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR w/some
restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers.

Tuesday...VFR most likely.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MWG