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493
FXUS61 KBGM 222226
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
626 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through
most of the weekend. While some light showers will be possible on
Sunday, rain chances will be better early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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625 PM Update...
Partly cloudy skies will become clear this evening, as high
pressure settles into the area. With slightly higher dewpoints
around, and ideal conditions for radiational cooling, some
valley fog is likely to develop after midnight.

Overall forecast is on track, with just some minor tweaks to sky
cover grids.

220 PM Update...
Skies become mostly clear tonight and winds will generally be
light, which would be favorable for fog to develop. Model
soundings are also showing a shallow inversion, though drier air
will be present just above the surface as will stronger winds.
If fog develops, it will likely be limited to the river valleys
tonight. With the upper- level trough lifting out of the region,
heights increase and temperatures will be slightly warmer than
previous nights. However, most will fall into the 40s for one
more night. Lower elevations will just hang onto the 50s.

A ridge of high pressure builds into the region on Friday. This will
bring warmer and drier conditions with it. For the first day in
awhile, PoPs are zero. Temperatures will climb into the 70s and low
80s under sunny skies. Highs were bumped up slightly above most
guidance. Then, temps fall as low as the upper 40s, though most
should stay in the 50s. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be
favorable for fog once again.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure crests over NY and PA Saturday as another
upper level wave moves toward the upper Great Lakes. As a result,
Saturday looks fair and seasonably warm. For Saturday night, upper
level wave moves into NY and PA with little if any QPF. NBM was
showing minimal POPs so we will keep forecast dry. There could be a
sprinkle here and there but the vast majority of the night will be
dry. For Sunday and Sunday night, Upper level wave passes by and
there will be a few light rain showers as the wave was moisture
starved. We have slight chance POPs in central NY/northeast PA but
much of the day and night should be dry. We followed NBM closely but
raised POPs a tad for Sunday afternoon.

For Monday, upper level trough moves southward across New England
with wrap around moisture affecting much of our forecast area hence
we have slight chance to chance POPs for showers and even a few
thunderstorms. Monday night should see the activity wind down
with high pressure building in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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For Tuesday into Wednesday, another wave will ride over a developing
upper level ridge and keep some low chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day. Thursday models diverge some but
continue to show some chance for more showers and thunderstorms.
We will stick close to NBM this period.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. The
exception will be fog at ELM and potentially RME. Guidance
favors LIFR visibilities at ELM but does not have anything at
RME. Looking at model soundings, there is certainly potential
for fog or possibly low stratus at RME.

Gusty winds become calmer this evening and will be calm all
throughout Friday as well. Fair weather clouds this afternoon
will eventually give way to clear skies.

.Outlook...
Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Saturday
morning.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible
in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...BTL