![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/https/forecast.weather.gov/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --936 FXUS61 KBGM 221822 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 222 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through most of the weekend. While some light showers will be possible on Sunday, rain chances will be better early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --220 PM Update... Skies become mostly clear tonight and winds will generally be light, which would be favorable for fog to develop. Model soundings are also showing a shallow inversion, though drier air will be present just above the surface as will stronger winds. If fog develops, it will likely be limited to the river valleys tonight. With the upper- level trough lifting out of the region, heights increase and temperatures will be slightly warmer than previous nights. However, most will fall into the 40s for one more night. Lower elevations will just hang onto the 50s. A ridge of high pressure builds into the region on Friday. This will bring warmer and drier conditions with it. For the first day in awhile, PoPs are zero. Temperatures will climb into the 70s and low 80s under sunny skies. Highs were bumped up slightly above most guidance. Then, temps fall as low as the upper 40s, though most should stay in the 50s. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be favorable for fog once again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... High pressure still looks to be firmly in place Friday night and Saturday over the region. So a fairly persistent mostly sunny pattern should continue. Temperatures may start off Saturday fairly chilly again due to radiational cooling in the low and mid 50`s with afternoon highs pushing 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An omega block still looks to form over the Ohio Valley. Several mid- level disturbances and possible upper level low look to dive south into the region early next week. Overall ensemble trends have trended upward with the potential shower coverage early next week. Opted to have Wednesday feature the highest shower and thunderstorm chances with the potential for a stronger frontal boundary pushing closer to the region. Overall, instability and deep moisture look rather limited at this time Sunday through Wednesday. Right now modeled CAPE values generally average around 500 J/KG in the afternoon hours with 20 knots or less of 0-6KM bulk shear as well. For now, this would limit any potential for thunderstorms to produce anything outside of thunder and lightning. If we do get a more pronounced upper level low like the GFS has, some small hail would be possible in the afternoon hours with any shower or thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday. With more in the way of clouds and some chances for showers highs should stay around or a little above 80 degrees. Given slightly increased moisture lows will have hard time falling below 60 each night Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. The exception will be fog at ELM and potentially RME. Guidance favors LIFR visibilities at ELM but does not have anything at RME. Looking at model soundings, there is certainly potential for fog or possibly low stratus at RME. Gusty winds become calmer this evening and will be calm all throughout Friday as well. Fair weather clouds this afternoon will eventually give way to clear skies. .Outlook... Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Saturday morning. Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...BTL