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936
FXUS61 KBGM 221822
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through
most of the weekend. While some light showers will be possible on
Sunday, rain chances will be better early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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220 PM Update...

Skies become mostly clear tonight and winds will generally be light,
which would be favorable for fog to develop. Model soundings are
also showing a shallow inversion, though drier air will be present
just above the surface as will stronger winds. If fog develops, it
will likely be limited to the river valleys tonight. With the upper-
level trough lifting out of the region, heights increase and
temperatures will be slightly warmer than previous nights. However,
most will fall into the 40s for one more night. Lower elevations
will just hang onto the 50s.

A ridge of high pressure builds into the region on Friday. This will
bring warmer and drier conditions with it. For the first day in
awhile, PoPs are zero. Temperatures will climb into the 70s and low
80s under sunny skies. Highs were bumped up slightly above most
guidance. Then, temps fall as low as the upper 40s, though most
should stay in the 50s. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be
favorable for fog once again.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
High pressure still looks to be firmly in place Friday night and
Saturday over the region. So a fairly persistent mostly sunny
pattern should continue. Temperatures may start off Saturday fairly
chilly again due to radiational cooling in the low and mid
50`s with afternoon highs pushing 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An omega block still looks to form over the Ohio Valley. Several mid-
level disturbances and possible upper level low look to dive
south into the region early next week. Overall ensemble trends
have trended upward with the potential shower coverage early
next week. Opted to have Wednesday feature the highest shower
and thunderstorm chances with the potential for a stronger
frontal boundary pushing closer to the region.

Overall, instability and deep moisture look rather limited at this
time Sunday through Wednesday. Right now modeled CAPE values
generally average around 500 J/KG in the afternoon hours with 20
knots or less of 0-6KM bulk shear as well. For now, this would limit
any potential for thunderstorms to produce anything outside of
thunder and lightning. If we do get a more pronounced upper level
low like the GFS has, some small hail would be possible in the
afternoon hours with any shower or thunderstorm Monday and
Tuesday.

With more in the way of clouds and some chances for showers highs
should stay around or a little above 80 degrees. Given slightly
increased moisture lows will have hard time falling below 60
each night Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. The
exception will be fog at ELM and potentially RME. Guidance
favors LIFR visibilities at ELM but does not have anything at
RME. Looking at model soundings, there is certainly potential
for fog or possibly low stratus at RME.

Gusty winds become calmer this evening and will be calm all
throughout Friday as well. Fair weather clouds this afternoon
will eventually give way to clear skies.

.Outlook...
Friday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Saturday
morning.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible
in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL