-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
128
FXUS61 KBGM 212350
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
750 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast
US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for
northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high
pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend
with fair and warmer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
640 PM Update...

Showers have reduced in coverage over the past hour or so, with
most of the activity now located in the Mohawk Valley and Oneida
county. NW flow continues over the region, pushing cold air over
a warm Lake Ontario, generating with isolated showers and
patchy drizzle possible from the northern Finger Lakes to Oneida
county. Slight changes were made to PoPs in this update, based
on radar trends and the latest high res guidance. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.


230 PM Update...

For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will
continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. The
combination of wrap around synoptic moisture, lake moisture, diurnal
heating and cool air aloft will continue the showers until sunset.
After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern
Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to
the diurnal loss of lifting. This will lead to showers winding down
and a fair but chilly night. With low-level northwest flow
continuing off Lake Ontario we will see continued cloud cover and
some spotty light showers or sprinkles. Then for Thursday, with
diurnal heating, and increased low-level moisture off Lake Ontario a
few spotty showers will pop up in mainly central NY. Coverage will
be much less than today. This activity will wind down Thursday night
as a surface high builds over the region. We do expect some valley
fog Friday morning and chilly overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday,the upper Level low will finally head east into the
Maritimes. This will put NY and PA under the subsidence region
behind the trough. This will allow a surface high to build in and
out area will dry out with fair weather and more sunshine. 850 mb
temperatures will rebound to around 10C which translates into highs
back into the 70s which is more seasonable for late August.

This high will remain over NY and PA into Saturday / Saturday Night
with continued warming trend as southerly flow develops.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with more fair weather which
will last into Saturday night. NBM is dry for now and we will keep.

For Sunday, another upper level trough will drop south toward New
England with an upper level ridge popping up across the central US.
Models diverge as to QPF Sunday for our area so we will stick close
to NBM which has limited POPs Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early next week, upper level low drops south off the New England
coast on the Euro and CMC with the GFS farther west. Models diverge
here. NBM POPs are fairly light and giving the more northerly flow
and drier air, so we will stick with the drier NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers are diminishing in coverage across the area with the
loss of daytime heating, but an isolated shower can`t be ruled
out at SYR and RME for a few more hours. Probabilities were too
low to continue carrying TEMPO groups at SYR.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail overnight, and despite
the scattered rainfall and cooling temperatures, just enough
wind is expected overnight to prevent fog or low stratus
formation.

Isolated showers will return tomorrow, most likely occurring
across the Southern Tier of NY into NEPA. Probabilities are too
low to mention outside of VCSH at BGM and AVP in the afternoon.


.Outlook...
Thursday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and
Saturday.

Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/JTC
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN/MPH