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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --128 FXUS61 KBGM 212350 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 750 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 640 PM Update... Showers have reduced in coverage over the past hour or so, with most of the activity now located in the Mohawk Valley and Oneida county. NW flow continues over the region, pushing cold air over a warm Lake Ontario, generating with isolated showers and patchy drizzle possible from the northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county. Slight changes were made to PoPs in this update, based on radar trends and the latest high res guidance. The rest of the forecast remains on track. 230 PM Update... For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. The combination of wrap around synoptic moisture, lake moisture, diurnal heating and cool air aloft will continue the showers until sunset. After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to the diurnal loss of lifting. This will lead to showers winding down and a fair but chilly night. With low-level northwest flow continuing off Lake Ontario we will see continued cloud cover and some spotty light showers or sprinkles. Then for Thursday, with diurnal heating, and increased low-level moisture off Lake Ontario a few spotty showers will pop up in mainly central NY. Coverage will be much less than today. This activity will wind down Thursday night as a surface high builds over the region. We do expect some valley fog Friday morning and chilly overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For Friday,the upper Level low will finally head east into the Maritimes. This will put NY and PA under the subsidence region behind the trough. This will allow a surface high to build in and out area will dry out with fair weather and more sunshine. 850 mb temperatures will rebound to around 10C which translates into highs back into the 70s which is more seasonable for late August. This high will remain over NY and PA into Saturday / Saturday Night with continued warming trend as southerly flow develops. Temperatures will continue to moderate with more fair weather which will last into Saturday night. NBM is dry for now and we will keep. For Sunday, another upper level trough will drop south toward New England with an upper level ridge popping up across the central US. Models diverge as to QPF Sunday for our area so we will stick close to NBM which has limited POPs Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Early next week, upper level low drops south off the New England coast on the Euro and CMC with the GFS farther west. Models diverge here. NBM POPs are fairly light and giving the more northerly flow and drier air, so we will stick with the drier NBM. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Showers are diminishing in coverage across the area with the loss of daytime heating, but an isolated shower can`t be ruled out at SYR and RME for a few more hours. Probabilities were too low to continue carrying TEMPO groups at SYR. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail overnight, and despite the scattered rainfall and cooling temperatures, just enough wind is expected overnight to prevent fog or low stratus formation. Isolated showers will return tomorrow, most likely occurring across the Southern Tier of NY into NEPA. Probabilities are too low to mention outside of VCSH at BGM and AVP in the afternoon. .Outlook... Thursday Night through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and Saturday. Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN/JTC SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...DJN AVIATION...DJN/MPH