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507
FXUS61 KBGM 211853
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
253 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast
US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for
northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high
pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend
with fair and warmer weather.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will
continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. The
combination of wrap around synoptic moisture, lake moisture, diurnal
heating and cool air aloft will continue the showers until sunset.
After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern
Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to
the diurnal loss of lifting. This will lead to showers winding down
and a fair but chilly night. With low-level northwest flow
continuing off Lake Ontario we will see continued cloud cover and
some spotty light showers or sprinkles. Then for Thursday, with
diurnal heating, and increased low-level moisture off Lake Ontario a
few spotty showers will pop up in mainly central NY. Coverage will
be much less than today. This activity will wind down Thursday night
as a surface high builds over the region. We do expect some valley
fog Friday morning and chilly overnight lows.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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For Friday,the upper Level low will finally head east into the
Maritimes. This will put NY and PA under the subsidence region
behind the trough. This will allow a surface high to build in and
out area will dry out with fair weather and more sunshine. 850 mb
temperatures will rebound to around 10C which translates into highs
back into the 70s which is more seasonable for late August.

This high will remain over NY and PA into Saturday / Saturday Night
with continued warming trend as southerly flow develops.
Temperatures will continue to moderate with more fair weather which
will last into Saturday night. NBM is dry for now and we will keep.

For Sunday, another upper level trough will drop south toward New
England with an upper level ridge popping up across the central US.
Models diverge as to QPF Sunday for our area so we will stick close
to NBM which has limited POPs Sunday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Early next week, upper level low drops south off the New England
coast on the Euro and CMC with the GFS farther west. Models diverge
here. NBM POPs are fairly light and giving the more northerly flow
and drier air, so we will stick with the drier NBM.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms were across central
NY down to northeast PA early this afternoon. We have received
some isolated reports of small hail as well. In general,
ceilings and visibilities will be VFR this afternoon but at
times of showers, conditions drop to MVFR with isolated IFR
conditions. At this time, best chance for IFR will be at KBGM
between 18z and 22z. KELM has IFR at this time which will
improve to VFR before 19z. Rest of terminals will bounce from
VFR to MVFR in showers. This will come to an end around 00z when
all terminals will see VFR conditions.

Northwest winds will remain 8 to 13 knots with gusts to 20 knots
or higher this afternoon. Winds will subside and back to the
west after 00Z and weaken to below 10 knots and remain so
through Thursday morning.

.Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over
the region. IFR in valley fog is likely at KELM Friday and
Saturday.

Monday...Mainly VFR w/some restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN