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038
FXUS61 KBGM 240907
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
507 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure remains in control over our region during the
weekend with mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected. Weak
areas of low pressure will bring chances for rain showers most days
next week, with thunderstorms possible Wednesday. Temperatures will
be near or slightly above average next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

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500 AM Update...
Clouds have mostly dissipated early this morning allowing fog
to develop over the river valleys. Temperatures are cool ranging
in the mid to upper 50s. Made minor adjustments to factor in
current observations for this update. Remaining forecast is on
track at this time.

330 AM Update...
Thin high clouds linger over the area this morning, otherwise
mostly clear conditions are expected as high pressure remains in
control. Light winds and clear skies allow valley fog to
develop over the region. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions
are expected today with more seasonable temperatures. Highs will
range in the upper 70s to low 80s. Then overnight, temperatures
will only fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Some model guidance
wants to bring a passing shower or two through the region
overnight as a weak shortwave sweeps through. Forecast soundings
show dry air holding in place near the surface, therefore kept
conditions dry overnight. Otherwise scattered cloud cover moves
in along with the short wave. Light winds and areas that see
mostly clear skies could see valley fog develop overnight.

Surface high pressure conditions continue into Sunday with another
attempt for an upper level short wave to move through the region.
Even though instability increases on Sunday, there may not be enough
lift and moisture to kick off afternoon rain showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance trends drier this update, therefore
kept showers out of the forecast for now. If anything were to
develop in this environment it would be in an isolated fashion.
Temperatures on Sunday will continue on the warming trend, topping
out in the low to mid 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With clear skies and light winds another night with patchy valley
fog is plausible Sunday night with lows near 60. A upper level
low is still expected to drop south over New England Monday.
This feature has trended slightly further east with the latest
model runs. With that said, rain chances have been lowered
slightly. While limited, lift and instability may just be enough
to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening. PW values only near one inch should keep any localized
flooding threat very low. The highest chances look to be east
of I-81 closer to the upper level low. With a few more clouds
around, highs should be around 80 despite a warmer airmass
starting to build into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak southerly
and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a warmer airmass
Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or thunderstorm still
looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again highs should be
able to get well into the 80`s after starting around 60.

A frontal system looks to then dive southeast into the Great Lakes
and New England Wednesday into early Thursday. This front looks to
be enough of a trigger for chances of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most of the ensemble guidance has
trended a bit faster with the front. As a result, rain chances look
slightly lower Thursday now and higher on Wednesday.  A hot day is
possible Wednesday ahead of the front with modeled 925 mb
temperatures suggesting highs reach 90 outside of any storms in a
few spots after starting around 60.

Modeled 0-6KM bulk shear and instability have increased over the
past day with the highest values from I-81 westward Wednesday
afternoon and evening. CAPE values of 1,500-3,000 J/KG are now being
modeled with about 30 knots of 0-6KM bulk shear. These values are
sufficient enough so that thunderstorms that develop ahead of
the cold front can organize into clusters with threats for hail
and wind. Still this is a considerable change from previous
forecasts and trends will be monitored.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday look to trend slightly cooler. Our
next system later Friday is looking to be more occluded but
still enough for another chance for showers and thunderstorms
with timing still somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thicker high clouds linger over the area, this may delay
cooling and valley fog onset or fog development overall. Decided
to keep fog at ELM and RME as potential clearing is still
possible.

With light westerly flow in the low-levels tomorrow morning,
there would normally be some concern that lifting fog will
affect BGM after sunrise, but model soundings suggest very dry
air above the boundary layer, which should keep fog confined to
the valley like this past morning.

While fog filled much of the Wyoming Valley this past morning,
it avoided AVP. Kept fog out of AVP again Saturday morning,
leaning on guidance and persistence.

Elsewhere/Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light
westerly winds expected Saturday.


.Outlook...

Saturday Night...Mainly VFR; patchy valley fog possible, mainly
at ELM.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chances for showers
and associated restrictions.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Increasing chances for
showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/MPH