-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
878
FXUS61 KBGM 200652
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers and sprinkles will linger tonight, especially
across central NY. Cool and becoming breezy Tuesday and
Wednesday with additional scattered lake effect showers.
Quieter and warmer conditions are expected for the second half
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM Update...

Just some minor adjustments made at this time. Increased PoPs
around and downwind of the Finger Lakes with some lake effect
rain showers streaming off of them which will likely continue
into the overnight. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

640 PM Update...

Some minor adjustments through this evening, but allowed for
spotty showers or sprinkles to linger much of the night across
the Finger Lakes region and higher terrain of CNY. Increased
cloud cover and the chances for lake effect showers and
sprinkles tomorrow farther south across the Twin Tiers and NE
PA and increased PoP values over CNY. Instability looks to be
lacking tomorrow, so the chance for thunder was removed in areas
east of I-81. Sustained winds and gusts were also increased for
both tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon. One thing to monitor
Wednesday with low heights aloft and more instability present
is the potential for some small hail in any robust shower or
isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.

130 PM Update...

A slow-moving weak cold front moving across Central NY and NE PA
will continue to bring showers and a weak storm or two, mainly
east of I-81. Behind the front, north-northwesterly flow will
help to produce some very light lake-effect rain showers across
Central NY that will last through the rest of the day, and taper
off soon after sunset. The center low of a trough will push
southward into the area, allowing for these lake- effect light
rain showers to likely start up again tomorrow afternoon and
last into Tuesday night. This will pull down colder Canadian air
into the air, dropping Tuesday high temperatures to the low to
mid 60s, and some higher terrain areas even in the high 50s.
Additionally, we`ll see tonight`s and Tuesday`s overnight
temperatures fall into the high 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
A broad upper level low will continue to slowly move northeast
across New England Wednesday night and Thursday. However, west
to northwest flow will continue to bring in some clouds and
sprinkles or light showers to portions of central New York.
Coverage decreases with the low now departing. As is typically
the case, the NBM is likely way to fast with clearing on
Thursday. A very chilly airmass should continue to be present
under the upper level low with morning temperatures near 50 and
highs struggling to 70 for most of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure then builds into the area Thursday night. With clear
skies, light winds and residual moisture fog could develop and
become widespread toward sunrise Friday. Temperatures start a
warming trend going from near 50 well into the 70`s. Our region then
ends up on the front end of an omega block late this week into early
next week. A few ensemble members try to sneak a disturbance from
the north into the region at some point early next week. However,
the majority of members are dry at this point each day. An overall
warming trend should continue with humidity starting to edge upward
as the airmass moving in is more seasonable. Still highs in the
low to mid 80`s with lows around 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A steady flow of cool air from the north today will allow lake
effect/enhanced clouds to persist over central NY and into
northeast PA. Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR through
roughly 11-14Z with intermittent fuel alternate or even brief
IFR conditions at KBGM and KITH. Flight conditions will
gradually improve to VFR in stratocumulus after 14Z through the
afternoon. There will be light lake effect rain showers and
sprinkles around as well through the afternoon. Any
precipitation will abate after 00Z, leaving dry conditions and
VFR cigs/vsbys. Winds will be northwest around 8 to 13 knots
gusting between 15 and 20 knots through the day today...before
subsiding below 5 kt after 00Z this evening.

.Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with intermittent MVFR cigs. Afternoon
showers and isolated weak thunderstorms are possible with small
hail or graupel not out of the question.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJT/DJN