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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --878 FXUS61 KBGM 200652 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 252 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Spotty showers and sprinkles will linger tonight, especially across central NY. Cool and becoming breezy Tuesday and Wednesday with additional scattered lake effect showers. Quieter and warmer conditions are expected for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 945 PM Update... Just some minor adjustments made at this time. Increased PoPs around and downwind of the Finger Lakes with some lake effect rain showers streaming off of them which will likely continue into the overnight. The rest of the forecast remains on track. 640 PM Update... Some minor adjustments through this evening, but allowed for spotty showers or sprinkles to linger much of the night across the Finger Lakes region and higher terrain of CNY. Increased cloud cover and the chances for lake effect showers and sprinkles tomorrow farther south across the Twin Tiers and NE PA and increased PoP values over CNY. Instability looks to be lacking tomorrow, so the chance for thunder was removed in areas east of I-81. Sustained winds and gusts were also increased for both tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon. One thing to monitor Wednesday with low heights aloft and more instability present is the potential for some small hail in any robust shower or isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. 130 PM Update... A slow-moving weak cold front moving across Central NY and NE PA will continue to bring showers and a weak storm or two, mainly east of I-81. Behind the front, north-northwesterly flow will help to produce some very light lake-effect rain showers across Central NY that will last through the rest of the day, and taper off soon after sunset. The center low of a trough will push southward into the area, allowing for these lake- effect light rain showers to likely start up again tomorrow afternoon and last into Tuesday night. This will pull down colder Canadian air into the air, dropping Tuesday high temperatures to the low to mid 60s, and some higher terrain areas even in the high 50s. Additionally, we`ll see tonight`s and Tuesday`s overnight temperatures fall into the high 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A broad upper level low will continue to slowly move northeast across New England Wednesday night and Thursday. However, west to northwest flow will continue to bring in some clouds and sprinkles or light showers to portions of central New York. Coverage decreases with the low now departing. As is typically the case, the NBM is likely way to fast with clearing on Thursday. A very chilly airmass should continue to be present under the upper level low with morning temperatures near 50 and highs struggling to 70 for most of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure then builds into the area Thursday night. With clear skies, light winds and residual moisture fog could develop and become widespread toward sunrise Friday. Temperatures start a warming trend going from near 50 well into the 70`s. Our region then ends up on the front end of an omega block late this week into early next week. A few ensemble members try to sneak a disturbance from the north into the region at some point early next week. However, the majority of members are dry at this point each day. An overall warming trend should continue with humidity starting to edge upward as the airmass moving in is more seasonable. Still highs in the low to mid 80`s with lows around 60.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A steady flow of cool air from the north today will allow lake effect/enhanced clouds to persist over central NY and into northeast PA. Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR through roughly 11-14Z with intermittent fuel alternate or even brief IFR conditions at KBGM and KITH. Flight conditions will gradually improve to VFR in stratocumulus after 14Z through the afternoon. There will be light lake effect rain showers and sprinkles around as well through the afternoon. Any precipitation will abate after 00Z, leaving dry conditions and VFR cigs/vsbys. Winds will be northwest around 8 to 13 knots gusting between 15 and 20 knots through the day today...before subsiding below 5 kt after 00Z this evening. .Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR with intermittent MVFR cigs. Afternoon showers and isolated weak thunderstorms are possible with small hail or graupel not out of the question. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure over the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK NEAR TERM...DK/KL SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...BJT/DJN