-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
186
FXUS61 KBGM 240729
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions through the
majority of the weekend. Weak areas of low pressure will bring
chances for rain showers most days next week, with thunderstorms
possible Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above average next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM Update...
Thick high clouds are filling in and expanding over the region
especially over the twin tiers. Clouds are forecasted to
dissipate as the night progresses, but there is a chance clouds
could linger longer than expected. This has the potential to
hinder fog development. Made changes to update sky cover, and
tweak temperatures and dew points using current observations.

750 PM Update...
Some passing thicker high clouds will thin out again late
tonight, allowing for locally dense valley fog to develop again
before dawn. Forecast is pretty well on-track, with just some
minor tweaks to sky cover made.


255 PM Update...

High pressure will be in control through the near term period. Warm
and quiet conditions are in store for the first half of the weekend.
Before jumping to the weekend, there is tonight. Temperatures will
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. This forecast is slightly below
most guidance as skies will be mostly clear. With light winds
expected, conditions should be favorable for fog to develop again
tonight. Similarly to this morning, fog will be more likely in the
valleys, but could creep up the hills some while the highest
elevations stay clear.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday, maxing out in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Then overnight, temperatures will only fall into
the mid 50s to low 60s. Some model guidance wants to bring a passing
shower or two through the region overnight as a weak shortwave
sweeps through. Model soundings are fairly dry just above the
surface and do not show much of a moist layer that would be
supportive of rain. Because of this, conditions are kept dry
overnight. Valley fog cannot be ruled out as skies will be mostly
clear and winds will be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
With clear skies and light winds another night with patchy valley
fog is plausible Sunday night with lows near 60. A upper level
low is still expected to drop south over New England Monday.
This feature has trended slightly further east with the latest
model runs. With that said, rain chances have been lowered
slightly. While limited, lift and instability may just be enough
to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening. PW values only near one inch should keep any localized
flooding threat very low. The highest chances look to be east
of I-81 closer to the upper level low. With a few more clouds
around, highs should be around 80 despite a warmer airmass
starting to build into the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak southerly
and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a warmer airmass
Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or thunderstorm still
looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again highs should be
able to get well into the 80`s after starting around 60.

A frontal system looks to then dive southeast into the Great Lakes
and New England Wednesday into early Thursday. This front looks to
be enough of a trigger for chances of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most of the ensemble guidance has
trended a bit faster with the front. As a result, rain chances look
slightly lower Thursday now and higher on Wednesday.  A hot day is
possible Wednesday ahead of the front with modeled 925 mb
temperatures suggesting highs reach 90 outside of any storms in a
few spots after starting around 60.

Modeled 0-6KM bulk shear and instability have increased over the
past day with the highest values from I-81 westward Wednesday
afternoon and evening. CAPE values of 1,500-3,000 J/KG are now being
modeled with about 30 knots of 0-6KM bulk shear. These values are
sufficient enough so that thunderstorms that develop ahead of
the cold front can organize into clusters with threats for hail
and wind. Still this is a considerable change from previous
forecasts and trends will be monitored.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday look to trend slightly cooler. Our
next system later Friday is looking to be more occluded but
still enough for another chance for showers and thunderstorms
with timing still somewhat uncertain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thicker high clouds linger over the area, this may delay
cooling and valley fog onset or fog development overall. Decided
to keep fog at ELM and RME as potential clearing is still
possible.

With light westerly flow in the low-levels tomorrow morning,
there would normally be some concern that lifting fog will
affect BGM after sunrise, but model soundings suggest very dry
air above the boundary layer, which should keep fog confined to
the valley like this past morning.

While fog filled much of the Wyoming Valley this past morning,
it avoided AVP. Kept fog out of AVP again Saturday morning,
leaning on guidance and persistence.

Elsewhere/Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light
westerly winds expected Saturday.


.Outlook...

Saturday Night...Mainly VFR; patchy valley fog possible, mainly
at ELM.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chances for showers
and associated restrictions.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Increasing chances for
showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL/ES/MPH
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/MPH