Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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211 FXUS61 KBGM 232353 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 753 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions through the majority of the weekend. Weak areas of low pressure will bring chances for rain showers most days next week, with thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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750 PM Update... Some passing thicker high clouds will thin out again late tonight, allowing for locally dense valley fog to develop again before dawn. Forecast is pretty well on-track, with just some minor tweaks to sky cover made. 255 PM Update... High pressure will be in control through the near term period. Warm and quiet conditions are in store for the first half of the weekend. Before jumping to the weekend, there is tonight. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. This forecast is slightly below most guidance as skies will be mostly clear. With light winds expected, conditions should be favorable for fog to develop again tonight. Similarly to this morning, fog will be more likely in the valleys, but could creep up the hills some while the highest elevations stay clear. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday, maxing out in the mid 70s to low 80s. Then overnight, temperatures will only fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Some model guidance wants to bring a passing shower or two through the region overnight as a weak shortwave sweeps through. Model soundings are fairly dry just above the surface and do not show much of a moist layer that would be supportive of rain. Because of this, conditions are kept dry overnight. Valley fog cannot be ruled out as skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 220 PM Update... High pressure will continue to be in place at the surface through Sunday night. However, an upper level trough and mid- level shortwave will slide into northern New England Sunday morning. Instability increases to 500-1000 j/kg through the afternoon with 0-6km bulk shear values hovering around 25kts, so the trough to the NE of the CWA could provide enough broad lift to overcome the surface high and trigger a few isolated afternoon rain showers with a rumble of thunder. Available moisture for shower development is low, with PWATs averaging around 1.0 in through the afternoon and evening so long lasting heavy rain is not expected. Temperatures on Sunday will continue on the warming trend, topping out in the low to mid 80s. Isolated rain shower chances continue through the overnight hours as the trough slowly slides SE and the center moves closer to the CWA. Temperatures will be seasonable, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. The trough will continue to hang out just east of the CWA on Monday. Moderate mid-level lapse rates around 6.8C combined with CAPE values averaging around 700j/kg and bulk shear around 25kts will bring a chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region, with the best chance east of the Finger Lakes. A weak jet streak moving over the region Monday afternoon will also help to enhance lift and generate showers. Temps climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. A few showers may linger over the Catskills into the evening hours, but should dissipate fairly quickly as the trough digs into southern New England and high pressure builds into the region from the west. Temps Monday night will be in the upper 60s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 240 PM Update... The main weather feature for this period will be a low pressure system and associated cold front passage occurring mid week. High pressure will remain in place Tuesday, keeping conditions calm and temps in the low to mid 80s. The ridge sitting over the eastern US could slowly slide south Wednesday, which would allow for a shortwave north of the Great Lakes to move into the region Wednesday or Thursday. Guidance is still pretty uncertain how this system will develop as the strength and timing of the shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes and into our region remains highly variable. Showers chances look to occur Wed or Thurs but clarity on timing and duration will have to be sussed out in the next few model runs. Temps will also depend on the passage of the cold front, with ensembles showing 3-4 standard deviations for highs on Wednesday and Thursday. Because of all this uncertainty, the current forecast relies on the latest NBM. With high pressure pushing a little further eastward weak southerly and southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a warmer airmass Tuesday. A day without any trigger for shower or thunderstorm looks more pronounced on ensemble data. Once again highs should be able to get into the 80`s after starting around 60. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Some thicker high clouds over the area will thin-out again before midnight. This may delay cooling and valley fog onset by an hour or two. Otherwise, persistence seems like the way to go at ELM, so minimum visibility in morning TEMPO groups was lowered. With light westerly flow in the low-levels tomorrow morning, there would normally be some concern that lifting fog will affect BGM after sunrise, but model soundings suggest very dry air above the boundary layer, which should keep fog confined to the valley like this past morning. While fog filled much of the Wyoming Valley this past morning, it avoided AVP. Kept fog out of AVP again Saturday morning, leaning on guidance and persistence. Elsewhere/Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light westerly winds expected Saturday. .Outlook... Saturday Night...Mainly VFR; patchy valley fog possible, mainly at ELM. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; low chances for showers and associated restrictions. Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Increasing chances for showers and associated restrictions.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...BTL/MPH