Robert Libman: Can Poilievre break through in Quebec?

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These days, it seems increasingly difficult if not near-impossible to govern, at any level of politics. There are so many complicated challenges, with ever-escalating costs to provide services and offer solutions. Raising taxes to generate revenues is rarely an option with many voters struggling to make ends meet. The longer one sits in power, regardless of leadership skills, the more likely disenchantment accumulates after every decision.

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Conversely, it is relatively easy to be in opposition, where parties can exploit public frustration by throwing salt on wounds — highlighting the housing shortage, immigration challenges, health-care woes, the cost of living — and scoring points without offering tangible solutions to manage these problems. It all reinforces the narrative of a governing party in trouble, which is then typically confirmed by opinion polls.

With the National Assembly and House of Commons breaking for the summer, Premier François Legault and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are licking their wounds while their main opposition rivals are brimming with confidence.

Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was in Quebec this week with party members giddy about a double-digit lead in polls. He is gaining on the Liberals and Bloc Québécois in this province with supporters believing he could win seats on the island of Montreal. He should be mindful, though, that seemingly obvious tendencies between elections don’t always determine how election campaigns ultimately evolve.

On Wednesday, Poilievre made a big splash in Mount-Royal riding, which has always been a Liberal stronghold, and where I ran in the 2015 election with Stephen Harper. Poilievre announced his candidate, Neil Oberman, the lawyer who represented two McGill students seeking an injunction against the pro-Palestinian encampment at McGill. The Jewish community, which has largely soured on Trudeau because of what it sees as his vacillating support for Israel, makes up 30 per cent of the multi-ethnic riding.

In 2011, the Conservatives closed the gap in Mount-Royal thanks to the NDP orange wave that took 7,000 votes from the Liberals. But in 2015, NDP votes ultimately melted back to the Liberals in the red wave of enthusiasm for Trudeau, even though the NDP held big leads in national polls for the first month of that campaign. Jewish sectors in Mount-Royal still voted largely for the Conservative party, which did achieve its highest vote total since the Mulroney sweep of 1984. But the Liberals, with Anthony Housefather, still took the riding.

Today there is no red wave of enthusiasm for Trudeau, so hope springs eternal for the Tories. But Housefather may still garner votes for the Liberals among Jewish voters thanks to his outspoken stance on Israel.

Another issue in Mount-Royal is minority language politics and identity. Many anglophones feel Trudeau threw them under the bus with the Liberals’ revamp of the official languages act, Bill C-13. But Oberman better be prepared for debates when Housefather, the only MP with the courage to vote against C-13, reminds him that the Conservatives supported amendments that would have made it worse for anglophones.

So far, Poilievre has deftly avoided explosive Quebec issues regarding language, immigration, autonomy and religious symbols legislation — by just turning everything back to Trudeau. But in a campaign, he will undoubtedly be encouraged by his Quebec wing to curry favour with Quebec nationalists to battle for Bloc Québécois votes in the regions. This risks dashing any hopes for Montreal ridings where minority communities are more prevalent.

Incumbency fatigue is hard enough to shake off at the best of times, but so much seems to have gone sideways with the Trudeau administration. Current numbers indicate that the next election will be a cakewalk for Poilievre. To make inroads in Quebec, though, he may need to walk a tightrope. He also owes it to Canadians to tell us more about his proposed solutions.

Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election. X @robertlibman