Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico Proceedings of a Workshop (2023) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Game Scenarios
Appendix A: Game Scenarios
Pages 73-88
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From page 73... ...
Aside from historical references, names, organizations, and incidents portrayed in this scenario are fictitious. 2050 GULF GOVERNORS CONFERENCE ON THE ENERGY TRANSITION: THE PATH TO NET ZERO Conference Summary Introduction On May 23–24, 2050, the governors of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida gathered with leaders from Gulf of Mexico coastal communities, academia, and the energy industry to assess the state of the energy transition in the region.
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From page 74... ...
The council also played a major part in representing the needs of the region to Washington, ensuring that those who bear the brunt of decarbonization are allowed to share in its benefits. And when the Gulf states were not cooperating to make their voices heard, they competed fiercely against each other, with increasingly ambitious energy transition plans and regulatory fast-tracking to compete for private energy investments and Net Zero Industrial Hubs.
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From page 75... ...
Sven and Oleg were also tough on solar farms and offshore wind turbines, but their biggest effect may have been to spur massive regional investment in resilient infrastructure and natural systems. Government policy only laid the foundation for Net Zero; the industrial might and resilience of the Gulf made it happen.
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From page 76... ...
A utility representative noted that even though rooftop solar accounts for less than 30 percent of total Gulf solar, this share is higher than that seen in the rest of the US and has effects disproportionate to its size. Widespread adoption of rooftop solar became a driving force in smart grid adoption by utilities, and distributed energy resource management has improved grid stability.
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From page 77... ...
But most of this work is sent to New England, which has somewhat stronger winds and high electricity demand. Some Gulf offshore workers who trained at regional technical colleges through the Greater New Orleans Wind Alliance even fly to New England -- two weeks on, two weeks off -- building and maintaining offshore wind farms there.
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From page 78... ...
Other communities were much slower to adapt and suffered greatly from Hurricanes Sven and Oleg in 2033 and 2034. The widespread adoption of rooftop solar, especially since the passage of the Just Transition Act, has improved grid resilience through distributed energy resource management.
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From page 79... ...
These skills required some upgrading, and the Gulf Energy Diversification Council worked with a network of community and technical colleges to sponsor certification programs in CCS. And third, the Gulf's most plentiful CCS resource was depleted natural gas reservoirs.
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From page 80... ...
The mayor of one coastal town put it like this: "Moving to Net Zero challenged the economy of our community, but unchecked climate change would threaten the community's very existence." Workforce The final session of day 2 addressed the complex topic of the net effects of the energy transition on the Gulf workforce. Rezea University economist Professor Grace Naidoo presented her analysis showing that for the Gulf states as a whole, 21 percent more jobs had been gained than lost.
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From page 81... ...
Most experienced oil and gas workers know 80 percent of what they need to take on related roles in renewable energy. For the other 20 percent, the Institute for Workforce Development in the Energy Sector has collaborated with regional technical colleges to provide certification courses in wind, hydrogen, geothermal, and CCS.
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From page 82... ...
Aside from historical references, names, organizations, and incidents portrayed in this scenario are fictitious. 2050 GULF GOVERNORS CONFERENCE ON ENERGY: STEADYING THE TRANSITION Conference Summary Introduction On May 23–24, 2050, the governors of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida gathered with leaders from Gulf of Mexico coastal communities, academia, and the energy industry to assess the state of the energy economy in the region.
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From page 83... ...
This transformation continues to undercut the oil industry. Most conference participants conceded that attempts to shield the Gulf from an energy transition could only delay inevitable changes as market forces reduce the costs of electrified transport and renewable energy.
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From page 84... ...
(Overseas, where subsidies were more common and where most EVs are manufactured, the new-car price points for gas cars and EVs crossed in the mid-to-late 2020s.) As a result of declines in gasoline demand, crude oil production in the Gulf states has fallen by more than a quarter compared to 2020, and the industry employs about 50,000 fewer people today than in 2020.
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From page 85... ...
Homeowners in the Gulf, in contrast, have been eager for alternatives after sporadic blackouts, brownouts, and price spikes in deregulated and poorly integrated state electricity markets -- not to mention the complete loss of power for weeks after Hurricanes Sven and Oleg in 2033 and 2034. A utility representative complained that rooftop solar complicated balancing loads, but a panelist from the solar industry countered that utilities in other regions have deployed technology for distributed energy resource management that has improved grid stability.
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From page 86... ...
A few natural gas companies, eager to burnish their environmental image to multinational customers, tried blending green hydrogen (made from electrolysis using excess electricity from renewable sources) with their methane gas, but this led to problems with embrittled steel pipelines and leaks.
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From page 87... ...
Day 2: Gulf Impacts Air Quality and Environmental Justice Both academic experts and community representatives in the Air Quality and Environmental Justice session agreed that criteria air pollutants and toxic air pollutants remained stubbornly high, especially for fence line communities near refineries and petrochemical complexes. The exceptions were communities near refineries that had shut down.
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From page 88... ...
Renewable energy jobs in the Gulf states are also likely to be located far from the old oil employers along the coast. For example, West Texas has attracted a high percentage of regional wind investment, while inland Florida is a magnet for solar farm development.
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