El Nino Puts on Big Boy Pants

Federal climate experts today upgraded the growingEl Niño from moderate to strong, but said the upgrade doesn’t mean Southern Californians should expect an end to the state’s years-long drought.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said that despite the upgrade, the current El Nino isn’t likely to pack the punch of 1997 or 1987.

“We’re favoring a strong event. It could potentially be in the top three, but saying any more than that is really just hazarding a guess, and it’s not one that I’m willing to make,” Halpert said.

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The upgrade was based on water-temperature readings in the central Pacific, which forecasters said were the warmest in more than a decade.

“There is now a 95 percent chance that El Niño will last through the winter,” Halpert said. “Whether it remains strong through the winter, is not at a 95 percent chance, but we certainly do favor that.”

El Niño is expected to weaken as spring 2016 wears on.

While El Niño generally means unusually heavy rains, Southern Californians should not expect it to undo a drought that has stretched for four years. Halpert said people should not assume that “El Niño is here to save the day.”

City News Service