CT Winter Forecast Released, And It May Surprise You

Connecticut has seen some rather mild winter conditions in the past couple of years. That trend is likely to continue in 2017-2018, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In a long-range forecast issued Thursday, NOAA predicted above average temperatures in Connecticut and along the rest of the East Coast. NOAA predicted that there are equal chances for more or less precipitation than usual.

The authority predicts La Nina conditions will develop this year, for the second year in a row. This means that sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific are lower than usual, and winter temperatures are typically warmer in the southern and eastern parts of the country. (Subscribe to your local patch in Connecticut for the latest breaking news and our daily newsletters. If you have an iPhone, download our amazing Patch app.)

La Nina has a 55 to 65 percent chance of developing this year, according to NOAA forecasters.

“If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.”

NBC Connecticut meteorologist Josh Cingranelli says the La Nina winter does not spell doom for the ski season, but does mean temperatures are likely to be slightly above normal this season.

"While this forecast should get you thinking about the upcoming winter it's really only one of several variables that we look at when determining how much snow will fall," Cingranelli wrote Thursday."There's very little correlation between the La Nina phase and how much snow we get here in Connecticut."

NBC Connecticut Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan said on social media, "Here's the new winter forecast from the National Weather Service. Warmer than normal weather is anticipated but how much snow is still uncertain!"

NOAA's forecast also differs from other long-range forecasts. The Farmers' Almanac predicted in August there would be "snowier-than-normal" conditions in the Northeast from Maryland to Maine. AccuWeather predicted slightly above normal snow totals in the I-95 corridor, and greater chances at snowfall away from the corridor.

"From the Great Lakes into the Northeast, snowier-than-normal conditions are expected," says the Farmers' Almanac website. "We can hear the skiers, boarders, and snowmobilers cheering from here!"

NOAA added that its forecast does not predict seasonal snowfall accumulations, but likelihood of precipitation.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance because they depend upon the strength and track of winter storms," The NOAA release read.

Photo: Lanning Taliaferro, Patch Staff