Newsom, a Shadow, Unqualified Presidential Candidate

The uncertainty that engulfed the Democratic Party after CNN’s presidential debate is the type of chaos that Las Vegas’ bookmakers thrive on. Shortly after President Biden’s disappointing-to-party-elders performance, the odds against his November re-election soared. Should Biden withdraw or the party mount a successful effort to take him off the ballot, moving up the charts as possible replacements are, in the order that Las Vegas oddsmakerslist them, California Governor Gavin Newsom, 5-1; Vice President KamalaHarris tied with former first lady Michelle Obama, 22-1, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, 25-1. Trailing at 100-1 odds are Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, and Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Note: wagering on the outcome of political events is not permitted in the United States.
Newsom, who attended the Atlanta debate, is like a cork in water: press him down and he pops right back up, stalking Biden and reminding Democratic heavyweights that he is nothing if not available to step in as the party’s nominee. Las Vegas insiders are rarely wrong, but their price on Newsom should be much higher. During his time on the campaign trail, which would only last a few months until the November election, Newsom would have no accomplishments to point to as inducements to gain national voter support.

Democratic power brokers who might support Newsom would have to consider California’s huge budget problem. Newsom recently announced a $26.7 billion deficit. Two years ago, California had a $97.5 billion surplus, meaning that over a two-year period, the state had a minus $124.2 billion swing into red ink. Newsom raised the minimum wage for fast-food workers to $20 an hour. Wage inflation spread to other service areas, made food less affordable to the poor, and led to 10,000 workers losing their jobs. Rubio’s California Grill, famous for its fish tacos, closed 48 of its nearly 134 locations at the end of May, the first major chain to fall victim to California Assembly Bill 1287,
the new law that raised the minimum wage. The San Diego-based company cited the “rising cost of doing business” in the state for its closures. A huge variable in businesses’ overhead is gasoline costs. Californianspay 60 cents a gallon in gasoline tax, the nation’s highest, which brings the current total per gallon price to a $4.79 state-wide average. If voters cast ballots on negatives, then Newsom would win in a landslide.

In his State of the State address, Newsom touted the state’s job growth, but a new report from California’s state-funded, non-partisan Legislative Analysts’ Office found the state’s private sector employment has been collapsing since 2022. Public sector hiring accounted for the entire state net increase in jobs. Since California’s peak labor market hiring in September 2022, the private sector lost 154,000 jobs and the public-supported sector gained 361,000 jobs. Net, the state’s 207,000 employment increase since September 2022 has been from growing government-related hiring.

Twenty-seven percent of Californians are foreign-born, a total that, because of Newsom’s
welcoming, sanctuary state illegal immigration policy, is on the rise. Earlier this year, Newsom
announced that California would begin providing health care coverage toan additional 764,000 illegal immigrants on top of the 1.1 million already in the Medi-Cal system, the state’s version of Medicaid. More than one-third of California’s 39 million population is enrolled in Medi-Cal.

California has been incrementally adding illegal immigrantsto the Medi-Cal program since 2015, the year it made illegal alien children eligible. Four years later, Medi-Cal added illegal immigrant
adults aged fifty and older.

Now California is a hot spot for illegal aliens’ entry. Since Texas has effectively deterred illegal
immigration, aliens have discovered the San Diego corridor. Illegal immigrants know that San Diego is the easiest and least dangerous location to cross. Jacumba Hot Springs, a town of 540 people, has seen record high numbers of Chinese nationals cross, part of a nationwide pattern which has grown exponentially year-over-year. Between October 2023 and May 2024, crossers numbered 55,922, surpassing the entire 2023 fiscal year’s 52,700 total.

Shadow candidate Newsom knows that Biden’s open borders are voters’ top concern. Trying
to portray himself as tough on illegal immigration, Newsom claimed that he had ordered a doubling of national guard troops to the California/Mexico border. But in Jacumba, national correspondents on location said that they had not seen any California National Guard troops, a statement that Customs and Border Patrol officials confirmed. Fox News reporter Matt Finn posted on X: “We’re at the California border right now in Jacumba, Governor Newsom. We see migrants illegally crossing all hours of the day. From China, Iran, Yemen. Nepal. Haven’t seen a single California National Guard over the past week.”

The Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August 19-22, is about six weeks away. Right now, Biden is determined to remain in the race. Forcibly replacing him would be difficult. California is symbolic of how quickly incompetent leadership can destroy a great state. And Newsom, who has pushed out millions of productive but frustrated, overtaxed, and underserved middle-class residents and replaced them with illegal immigrants, is the governor that helped wreck the state. Realistically, Biden’s a long shot to remain in the White House, but he has a better chance to beat Donald Trump than Newsom.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst. Contact him at [email protected]