How Chicago Area Crime, Unauthorized Immigration Compares To U.S.

CHICAGO — Crime remained the same in the Chicago metro area as the number of unauthorized immigrants living here fell, according to a new analysis that found no evidence of a link nationwide between crime and the number of immigrants who entered the country illegally.

The analysis, published Monday by the nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization called The Marshall Project, builds on previous coverage of a study that found no link between immigration and crime. The new analysis attempted to address reader feedback that while immigrants overall may not increase crime, the study failed to account for immigrants who had entered the country unlawfully.

As for any nationwide trends, the authors gave a blunt assessment: “Growth in illegal immigration does not lead to higher local crime rates.” In fact, a large majority of cities saw both violent and property crimes fall between 2007 and 2016, in line with falling rates nationwide over the last 25 years. Moreover, crimes fell at similar rates whether or not the number of unauthorized immigrants increased or decreased.

“Areas with more unauthorized migration appeared to have larger drops in crime rates, although the difference was small and uncertain,” the report said.

This was the case in the Chicago metro area, which includes the area encompassing the city and suburbs like Elgin and Naperville.

• Unauthorized immigrant population: 1,500 fewer immigrants per 100,000 residents
• Violent crime rate: little or no change in crimes per 100,000 residents
• Property crime rate: little or no change in crimes per 100,000 residents

The Rockford metro area also saw its unauthorized immigrant population drop by about 1,300 immigrants per 100,000 residents, with little to no change in its violent and property crime rates.

Interestingly, murder was the only type of crime that seemed to see any increase as unauthorized immigrant population rose, though that difference was “small and uncertain (effectively zero),” the authors wrote.

The United States, with a record 43.7 million immigrants living in the country in 2016, has more immigrants than any other country, according to the Pew Research Center. In fact, immigrants make up 13.5 percent of the nation’s population and nearly half of them live in just three states: California, Texas and New York.

Of those 43.7 million immigrants, about 76 percent are in the country legally, Pew estimated, and about 10.7 million are living in the country unlawfully.

Studies about unauthorized immigrants are rare due to challenges presented in even gathering data on them. The Marshall Project analysis was conducted by comparing FBI crime rates with Pew estimates of unauthorized immigrant populations in each metro area.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.