Experts Make Their Predictions On Atlantic Hurricane Season

By MARC TORRENCE and DEB BELT

Marylanders: breathe easy, but stay prepared.

This should be a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, according to top experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA officials say its outlook for the 2015 hurricane season is being made with a 90 percent confidence level.

Hurricane season officially runs from May 1 to Nov. 30, and three tropical storms have already formed in 2015, with two making landfall — Ana in South Carolina and Bill in Texas. Claudette formed off the coast of North Carolina but never hit land.

• Related: What Are The Names For 2015 Hurricanes?

A major factor for the prediction is the presence of a strong El Niño—a weather pattern in the Pacific that makes it tougher for storms to develop in the Atlantic—which is expected to last through December 2015 and into the spring of 2016 in North America.

The atmospheric conditions created by El Niño, combined with predicted cooler waters, are a recipe for fewer strong storms.

Experts give a 70 percent chance of three to seven more named storms, with one to four potentially becoming hurricanes and either one or none of those becoming major hurricanes.

Still, the association is urging residents to be prepared.

“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an NOAA press release.

He urged residents along the Eastern Seaboard to be prepared as the peak of the hurricane season arrives.

The Maryland Emergency Management Agency says the most hurricane-like weather is seen between mid-August and late October in the state. Coastlines and low-lying areas are at risk for flooding in addition to the strong winds and heavy rains typically associated with tropical storms.

Safety Tips to Know in Hurricane Season

• Stay tuned to radio and TV stations for official weather information.
• Follow instructions and advice given by emergency officials.
• Stay indoors during the hurricane and away from windows and glass doors.
• Close all interior doors – secure and brace external doors.
• Take refuge in a small interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level.
• Avoid using the phone except in the case of emergencies.
• Avoid elevators
• If you live in a mobile home, plan to leave. Mobile homes are unsafe in high winds.
• Do not attempt to evacuate during the height of a hurricane. You are safer in your home than out on the road
• Ensure a supply of water for sanitary purposes such as for cleaning and flushing toilets. Fill a bathtub or other large container with the water. This is important for those whose water runs off of an electrical system.