Meteorological Winter Is Here: New Winter Weather Predictions For MN

MINNESOTA — Winter officially begins in less than 3 weeks in Minnesota and the National Weather Service's(NWS) updated predictions offer a glimpse of how the season will shape up.

Temperatures have been on the warmer side in Minnesota all fall, and it looks like that will continue.

For December through February, temperatures in Minnesota have a 40 to 50 percent chance of being above normal, according to NWS's updated map released on Nov. 16.

Meanwhile, most of Minnesota is expected to get average precipitation.

So when will this snow come? While some could fall in December, the bigger storms are not likely until later in the winter, according to multiple researchers. February, in particular, could be a month filled with snowstorms.

"February can be an active and intense month," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist and veteran forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

A driving force behind what Minnesota can expect this winter can be attributed to El Niño, a climate cycle that results in the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years.

El Niño conditions are already inevitable, according to a consesus of scientists, with sea temperatures in the Pacific several degrees warmer than usual. This warmer water impacts what weather is carried on the winds to the United States. It's now considered very likely that this will keep temperatures warmer across much of the eastern seaboard, and conditions will likely "squash any widespread and meaningful cold in Northern Eurasia and eastern North America for weeks and possibly even months to come," Judah Cohen, with the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said last week.

Overall, Minnesota residents should still keep their snow shovels handy, even if we don't get as much as last year's record-breaking season.