NJ Report Shows 'Moderate' COVID Activity In At Least 8 Counties

NEW JERSEY – A new report says at least eight New Jersey counties now have a "moderate" risk of coronavirus transmission since the state has made significant progress over the past month.

The South Jersey, Central Jersey and the Jersey Shore counties have shown significant progress in coronavirus metrics released this week by the state Department of Health (see the details below).

The DOH's "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly, says that New Jersey's statewide activity has remained at "moderate" since dropping from "high" in mid-April.

The COVID-19 Activity Level Report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

Gov. Phil Murphy said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks "that have further guided our decision-making" in reopening New Jersey.

While the report has positive news, it's also sobering: All New Jersey counties have a new daily case rate that's at the moderate level, which is considered still a little too high to reopen more of the state.

"New Jersey has come a long way in fighting this virus, but we aren't out of the woods yet," Murphy said.

But Murphy also said that since the statewide activity is considered "moderate," schools can reopen safely for in-person instruction next fall. Read more: NJ Lifts COVID Travel Advisory, Orders In-Person School Next Year

Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said the report realizes the essential nature of having timely and accurate data. "It's essential to have accurate data to inform our response," she said.

Here is what the report says:

At least eight counties are at a "moderate" risk of coronavirus transmission

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Based on the findings, here are the South Jersey, Central Jersey and Jersey Shore counties that are currently "moderate":

• Burlington
• Camden
• Gloucester
• Mercer
• Middlesex
• Monmouth
• Ocean
• Salem

These counties are currently "low" (some of them moved down from "moderate"):

• Atlantic
• Cape May
• Cumberland

Here is the map:

Data

The state uses various data to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

• Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
• COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
• Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
• The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data for each region, including their activity levels:

The state's COVID activity timeline

The DOH says New Jersey's statewide activity is "moderate." It was "high" in late in April and May 2020, and "very high" in late March and early April of last year.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15, 2020.

Here is the timeline: