2022 Fall Forecast: 'Unseasonably Warm,' Dry For New York

NEW YORK — As much of the country swelters through what seems to be the hottest days of summer for the longest period of time, it’s hard to believe that meteorological autumn is less than a month away.

However, forecasters are already releasing their predictions for when New Yorkers can expect weather that is more suited to hoodies and pumpkin spice than cranked up air conditioning.

Meteorological autumn kicks off Sept. 1 and continues through Nov. 30. While autumn doesn’t officially start until the Sept. 22 equinox, forecasters use consistent dates each year to easily compare one season to another.

AccuWeather recently released its 2022 fall forecast. Is New York in for a delightfully cool autumn packed with bonfires and trips to the apple orchard? Let’s just say we may be in for a little more unseasonably warm temperatures.

Forecasters are calling for not much of a temperature change as the calendar turns over from August to September. The average temperature will be up 1 to 2 degrees, according to meteorologists.

It will continue to be on the dry side which could delay when the leaves change colors.

The first frost upstate will likely happen in late September or early October, with no serious threat to the harvest.

Of concern is whether there will be severe weather in the form of one or more tropical systems making landfall in the Northeast this fall. Meteorologists said there is not enough data at this point to say with any certainty.

To determine its fall forecast, AccuWeather forecasters used data from computer models while also analyzing weather patterns around the globe and past years.

After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook into one word: warm.

“With pretty good confidence this year, I think it's a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.