El Nino Intensifies: What It Means For Winter

BY DEB BELT

East Coast residents have endured two back-to-back frigid winters with round after round of ice and snow.

So will the winter of 2015-16 be a three-peat, or a reprieve thanks to a strong El Niño?

Meteorologists and weather forecasters say it’s a toss-up, although most agree that a strong El Niño pattern typically brings above-normal temperatures and more storms.

“It typically brings very stormy weather across the country, more storms,” said Luis Rosa, meteorologist at the Sterling, Va., office of the National Weather Service. “That means probably a lot of storms for the Southeast and Eastern United States. But it depends on temperatures and other factors.”

The National Weather Service last week issued an advisory giving a 90 percent chance that El Niño — a weather pattern that begins with warming waters in the Pacific Ocean and carries with it the threat of severe weather and natural disasters — continues into the winter. Scientists put an 85 percent chance of it continuing into next spring.

One National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration blog jokingly referred to it as the“Bruce Lee” El Niño, and a NASA scientist took that a step further saying it has “Godzilla” potential.

The winter forecast from the National Weather Service updated on Thursday predicts El Nino will offer equal chances for above normal temperatures in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, portions of the Midwest and Southern California. Warmer temperatures seem most likely in Illinois, northern California and Washington state.

Forecasters are expecting above normal precipitation chances from New York down the East Coast to Florida, as well as in dry Southern California. Illinois, Michigan and other parts of the Midwest may see a drier-than-normal winter.

A similarly strong El Nino pattern in the winter of 1982-83 left the region with only a few storms, but one of those dumped 36 inches of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains.

“It only takes one big one,” Rosa told Patch.

The National Weather Service look back at past El Nino winters in the Mid-Atlantic says of the six strong El Nino winters since 1950, three saw heavy snowfall, while three winters had virtually no snow.

The NWS says: “Strong El Niño episodes averaged above normal temperatures and precipitation. On average, the stronger the El Niño episode, the warmer and wetter the winters have been. … Seasonal snowfall averaged above normal for weak, moderate and strong El Niño episodes. The strong El Niño episode during the recent 2009-10 winter was associated with record-breaking seasonal snowfall in the mid-Atlantic region.”

Old Farmer’s Almanac Prediction

Another source -- the Old Farmer’s Almanac -- predicts the coming winter will be largely snowy and really cold for the entire country.

The Huffington Post reports that the Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for below-normal temps and above-normal snow levels for New England. It’s going to be frigid in the Midwest and icy in some areas of the South, and the Pacific Northwest should brace from some snowy periods in December.

An editor for the Almanac told the Post that “everybody who gets snow will have a White Christmas.”