Strong Nor'easters Expected To Hit Long Island As Fall, Winter Arrive

BY TOM DAVIS

Winter could hit Long Island hard this year.

Instead of hurricanes and snowstorms, however, nor’easters could dominate the forecast.

The Northeast Regional Climate Center has issued a forecast calling for a higher-than-normal number of strong nor’easters this fall and winter.

The Cornell University-based center had issued its preliminary East Coast winter storm forecast for the 2015-16 season, predicting more than 10 of the strong storms will arrive during the fall and winter seasons.

Compared to hurricanes, nor’easters tend to last longer, and slowly churn along the coastal areas, usually dropping several inches of precipitation and bringing strong, damaging winds.

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• Farmers’ Almanac: Snowy And Bitter Cold Winter Ahead For Long Island
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The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere fall, but increase into the late fall and winter.

El Niño will likely contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins, according to the center.

“It is indicating the chance of higher than normal temperatures and wetter than normal temperatures,” said Mitchell Gaines, an NWS meteorologist in Mount Holly, N.J. “We are going to have a strong El Niño which does indicate a stronger storm track.”

Fewer East Coast storms overall, or less than 25, are expected for the region, however.

By comparison, there were nine strong storms last year - even though Long Island got walloped by several major snowstorms.

Before that, there were 11 strong storms in 2013-14, 11 in 2012-13 (the year of Hurricane Sandy), five in 2011-12 and 12 in 2010-11.

Near-term, the first of fall is Wednesday and after some late summer heat, it will actually begin feeling like fall on Long Island, especially at night.

The full forecast:

• Tonight- Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northeast wind 9 to 14 mph.
• Tuesday- Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph.
• Tuesday Night- Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
• Wednesday- Sunny, with a high near 77. North wind 3 to 7 mph.
• Wednesday Night- Clear, with a low around 58.