​The Top Ten U.S. Senate Races of 2020

CHARLESTON, W. Va. – Back in May I profiled what I considered the “Top Ten” U.S. Senate races in the country this year. I lamented that so much attention was being focused on the presidential races, that the other big political story of 2020 – who controls the U.S. Senate – was largely being ignored. The Senate is in play, with Democrats needing only three or four votes to seize control. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

“Sweet Home, Alabama!” – One of the most competitive races is in Alabama where Senator Doug Jones (D) Alabama, won a special election in 2017 to fill the remainder of the term of Sen. Jeff Sessions, (R) Alabama, who became President Trump’s first Attorney General. Jones will face former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, who beat Sessions in a primary run-off. A recent poll from Morning Consult has Tuberville up by 17 points. Alabama is a solid red state and is a likely Republican Senate pick-up.

“Arizona Wants Me” – Former Rep. Martha McSally, (R) Arizona was appointed to fill the remainder of Senator John McCain’s term upon his death. McSally had just lost a very close race to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, (D) Arizona in 2018, 50 to 48 percent. McSally will now face the Democratic nominee, former astronaut Mark Kelly, who is married to former Rep. Gabby Giffords, (D) Arizona. Bottom line: The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Kelly up 53 to 42 percent over McSally. This would be a huge Democratic pick-up.

“Rocky Mountain High… or Low” – Perhaps the most vulnerable U.S. Senate seat for the GOP is that occupied by Sen. Cory Gardner (R) Colorado. He won in 2014, after serving four years in the U.S. House. Former Denver Mayor and Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) Colorado is the challenger. Colorado has become a reliably “blue state” so Democrats may have an edge here. A recent poll from Fabrizio, Ward and Hart has it 51 percent for Hickenlooper, to 46 percent for Gardner, showing the race has tightened a good bit. I still say it leans Democrat.

“As Maine Goes, so Goes the Nation?” – Will that old political saw ring true in 2020? Sen. Susan Collins, (R) Maine, is one of the few moderate-to-liberal Republicans in the Senate, often at odds with President Trump. Like Sen. Cory Gardner, (R) Colorado, mentioned above, Collins and Gardner are the only two Republicans elected to the U.S. Senate in states Trump lost in 2016. The Democrat nominee is former State House Speaker Sara Gideon, (D) Maine. The latest Bangor News Poll has Gideon up with 43 percent, to 35 percent for Collins. Undecideds are the key. Call this a toss-up.

“Going Carolina in My Mind” – North Carolina once was a reliable Republican state, but as with other Southern States such as Florida and Georgia, it continues to attract people from the Midwest and Northeast wanting to relocate their careers or retire. The demographics are changing, and that’s giving Democrats a shot. Senator Thom Tillis (R) North Carolina is locked in a tight reelection battle. He is facing former State Sen. Cal Cunningham, (D) North Carolina, an Iraq-Afghanistan War veteran. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has this race as a real “nail-biter” with 41 percent for Cunningham, to 40 percent for Tillis. It’s a toss-up! If Democrats win this, they have a real shot at taking control of the U.S. Senate.

“Dorothy, We’re Still in Kansas” – Longtime U.S. Senator and former House member Pat Roberts (R) Kansas, announced he would leave Congress after 50 years. Rep. Roger Marshall (R) Kansas is in a dead heat, 43 to 42 percent, with State Senator Barbara Bollier, (D) Kansas, according to Public Policy Polling. While Kansas is a solid red state, it elected a Democrat governor in 2018. President Trump is popular here, and that may spell the difference: Pick? Leans GOP.

“Iowa” – Iowa is always one of the main battleground states in the presidential race, so the coattails of President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden could have an impact. A composite of three recent polls indicates Sen. Joannie Ernst (R) Iowa, is at 44.7 percent, with Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield at 45 percent. While often viewed as a red state, Iowa has a solid track record of sending Democrats to the U.S. Senate and the governor’s mansion. Pick: Toss up.

“Montana” – Montana may be one of the real “sleeper” races is the U.S. Senate this year. U.S. Sen. Steve Danes (R) Montana, is seeking reelection after serving one term in the Senate and one in the U.S. House. His opponent is Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Montana, who ran unsuccessfully for president in the Democratic primary, but certainly built some name recognition. The Real Clear Politics composite polls has Danes with 47 percent, to 45 percent for Bullock. Leans GOP.

“Kennedy Calamity” – Massachusetts will likely send a Democrat back to the U.S. Senate. Sen. Ed Markey (D) Massachusetts has served the Bay State in Congress for the past 44 years, most of which was in the U.S. House. The primary was the real show here where he defeated Rep. Joseph Kennedy III, (D) Massachusetts, a four-term U.S House member. The GOP nominee is attorney Kevin O’Connor. Pick? Likely DEM.

“Michigan” – Two Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in states President Trump carried in 2016. We mentioned Sen. Doug Jones (D) Alabama above, but the other is Sen. Gary Peters (D) Michigan. He is being challenged by John James, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018. The Real Clear Politics poll has it 47 percent for Peters, to 44 percent for James. The state’s presidential pick weighs heavily, as Trump won here in 2016. I predict Michigan holds the keys to the White House this year. Pick: Leans DEM.

Who are you voting for in the U.S. Senate race in your state? Let us know by clicking the comment button.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the six Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market. He is a National Contributing Political Writer for The White House Patch at www.Patch.com.

© 2020 Mark Curtis Media, LLC

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