Winter Forecast For Virginia, DC: What To Expect In 2017-18

VIENNA, VA—If you live in the Mid-Atlantic, you may want to dig out your wool socks and extra layers, according to a new winter forecast released Wednesday.

Accuweather says the region should brace for more snow than usual. At the very least, this winter should be colder than last year's mild season in Virginia and DC.

The likelihood of avoiding a harsh winter is better for the DC area than other areas. The metropolitan area and other towns in the Interstate 95 corridor may see above average snowfall, but not by much. January is expected to bring the most chilling temperatures of the season.

“Areas in the I-95 corridor will average close to normal, within a few inches,” Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range weather forecaster for AccuWeather, said. “Areas away from the I-95 corridor have a better chance at a big snowfall.” (SIGN UP: Subscribe to a Virginia Patch News Alert and Newsletter. Or, if you have an iPhone, download the free Patch app.)

New York City and Boston could be the exceptions, as early predictions call for at least six inches of snow above average.

The Accuweather forecast is a stark contrast to what another model suggests could be in store this winter. The Old Farmer’s Almanac outlook in Virginia and DC calls for a warmer than usual winter with above-normal precipitation and below-normal snowfall. A competing publication, the Farmer’s Almanac, is more in line with Accuweather's predictions. Its forecast calls for "above-normal" precipitation a "cold-and-snowy" winter.

Any of these forecasts pale in comparison to what's expected in parts of the Northeast and Midwest. AccuWeather says areas that typically receive large amounts of lake-effect snow — Cleveland, Ohio; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Buffalo, New York — should brace for mountains of snow and frequent shoveling. Both snow and ice are predicted in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and throughout the Northeast.

Here’s a closer look at the forecast in different parts of the country:

Air temperatures will run above normal in most of the Southeast, especially Florida and Georgia, where the risk of a damaging freeze is lower than in past years. Florida, inundated with rain after Hurricane Irma, is expected to remain mostly dry.

In the western areas of the region, weather could be colder overall, and Pastelok said a few ice storms could hit the area stretching from the Tennessee Valley to northeast Texas.

Tornadoes aren’t out of the question, either. In January 2017, the area from Texas to Georgia was pummeled by 137 tornadoes. Pastelok expects the region to be experience tornadoes in February.

Northern Plains

Arctic cold blasts are expected to plunge Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and most of Missouri into the deep freeze on a regular basis, but the drier, colder air will carry less moisture, so huge, frequent snowfalls shouldn’t be a problem.

The coldest air — minus 30-degree Fahrenheit temperatures (and that doesn’t include the windchill) — will be in the Dakotas, Pastelok said.

Southern Plains

The chilliest temperatures could come in mid-winter, and arctic air blowing in from Canada could lead to freezes in late January, Pastelok said. Overall, though, a cold winter isn’t predicted.

Despite roller-coaster temperatures overall, southwest Texas could experience above-normal temperatures.

And while some storms are predicted, the winter will be mostly dry in the Southern Plains.

“We do feel there are going to be some storms in northwest Texas at times,” Pastelok said. “Southwest Texas could see some but not as frequent as in past winters.”

Northwest and Rockies

A weak La Niña predicted to develop this winter is expected to provide ideal skiing conditions in the Northwest, including the Cascades, and the Rockies.

“I think the Bitterroot chain all the way down to the Wasatch region in the central and northern Rockies has a good shot to be above normal on snowfall this season,” Pastelok said.

Northern California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range is expected to be less snowy, but the area should receive enough snowfall for good skiing conditions — but it’s not likely to be so significant that people won’t be able to reach resorts, Pastelok said.

Southwest

Dry, warm weather is predicted. In fact, Pastelok said, temperatures could reach into the 90s by early 2018.

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