2022-23 Winter Forecast: What 6 Long-Range Predictions For WA Say

WASHINGTON — Winter wasted no time getting underway in Western Washington, including unusually early bouts of lowland snow and a widespread ice storm to welcome the season — but what kind of weather is in store for the next few months in Washington?

That depends on which long-range forecast you trust. There are at least a half dozen to choose from, plus evolving long-range outlooks.

In general, meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, AccuWeather, The Weather Channel and WeatherBell Analytics seem to agree on this:

A La Niña weather pattern, which is back for a third winter, will keep things drier and warmer than normal in the southern U.S., while states in the northern U.S., the Midwest and Ohio Valley, could see stormier-than-normal conditions.

The Farmers’ Almanac and rival publication, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, also release forecasts, though those predictions are generally not as well regarded as those from weather services and companies.

Here’s a quick recap of what six forecasts said about winter in the Pacific Northwest:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA's official winter outlook, which charts the probabilities between December and February, showed Washington as one of just a handful of states where the odds favor a cooler, wetter winter this year.

AccuWeather: AccuWeather predicts a slightly weaker winter pattern than last year, but with a few big storms and healthy mountain snow.

The Weather Channel: The Weather Channel's winter forecast, released in October, favors colder-than-average temperatures persisting in both January and February.

WeatherBell Analytics: Consulting the Euro model's long-range precipitation forecasts, WeatherBell predicts wetter, and potentially snowier, weather in the January through March period in Western Washington.

The Farmers’ Almanac: The Farmers' Almanac foretold a brisk season for Washington and Oregon, with winter precipitation landing about even with average.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac: The Old Farmer's Almanac, which released its winter outlook back in August, predicted a milder, drier winter for the Pacific Northwest. However, forecasters also saw early-season snowfall developing, which came to fruition.

Turning to the most recent thinking from federal climatologists, the latest three-month outlooks show some of the best odds in the country for colder-than-average temperatures lingering in Washington between January and March, with the probabilities also tilted in favor of a wetter period.