Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/28/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
418 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KT...SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST BY EARLY
EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME 35-40 KT GUSTS. WINDS BEGIN TO
VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MIDNIGHT AND AFTER.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING BEHIND COLD
FRONT...LASTING 2-3 HOURS. SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WITH VIS BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1SM AND
CIGS OR VV BRIEFLY BELOW 1000 FT.
* GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
WHICH MAY PRODUCE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND CONTAMINATION OF
PLOWED SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
* SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KTS.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY HAZARDOUS AVIATION CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACRTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BE THE FOCUS...WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST AND BEGAN TO GUSTS AT TIMES TO ARND 20-25KT. CIGS HAVE BEGUN
TO LOWER AS WELL...NEARING MVFR CONDS. WITH THE POWDERY NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE GUSTS WILL EASILY
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS BRIEFLY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
CONDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ONCE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ARRIVES ARND
1-2Z...AND WILL BRING VSBYS DOWN FURTHER WITH A BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. POSSIBLY SEE VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE
WITHIN THIS BURST. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GUSTS NEARING
36KT AT THE ONSET. THEN GUSTS WILL RISE EVEN HIGHER NEARING 40KT
BY 3Z. CURRENTLY HAVE INDICATED VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AT
3Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY
WINDS PERSISTING AND LIKELY CAUSING CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
9Z...WITH CIGS HOVERING ARND HIGH END MVFR AND LOW END VFR THRU
DAYBREAK. THEN A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER THIS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND A
CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE POISED TO REDEVELOP LATE MON MORNING.
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT NOT AS
STRONG AT 20-26KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER TIMING/IMPACTS...EXCEPT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PROLONGED LIFR VSBYS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN STRATOCU DECK MID-RANGE MVFR OR
HIGHER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019-
ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-
LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE CONCERNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS BEING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BITTER COLD
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE NORTH CENTRAL IL TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. IN COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT
WFOS...BELIEVE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THIS EVE...ALONG WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW
OVERNIGHT...IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. TEMPORARY BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CAN CERTAINLY BE HANDLED WITH AN ADVISORY...BUT WE
/DVN..MKX...AND LOT/ FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT NORTH AND WEST LOCALES TO HIGHLIGHT MORE
SO WITH A WARNING.
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT LIES FROM
NORTHERN WI SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IA AS OF 230 PM. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT OF 40 TO 50 KT EXIST WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SNOW
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE NATURE BEING MAINLY SNOW SHOWERISH THUS FAR. A
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS THIS SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW BOTH SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING
PRESSURE PATTERN WELL...AND BASICALLY EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ALONG WITH THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINICITY WITH 40 DEGREES
UP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SUBZERO AIR QUICKLY
HEADED SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...A
RESPONSIVE INCREASE IN MID TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP AND ARW BY 6-7 PM IN NORTHERN IL. THIS QUICKLY EVOLVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS FORCING AND IN A SATURATED LAYER TO
SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES IN JUST THE 1-2 HR WINDOW IN WHICH IT LASTS IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE...AND THAT PASSAGE SIGNALS THE RAPID INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED THAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE 40-50 MPH FOR A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT USING TOP OF THE
CHANNEL MIXING WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTED IN THAT IMMEDIATE FROPA
ATMOSPHERE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO 30-35 MPH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THE WARM TEMPS TODAY MAY HAVE INCREASED
THE SNOW DENSITY SOME...WET BULB VALUES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
HAVE LIKELY LIMITED MUCH FOR MELTING. THESE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
THUS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE FEW HOURS OF FALLING SNOW WITH
THE MAXIMA OF GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE WARNING...BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT ADDS FURTHER TO THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
WITH 27 OF 50 DAYS HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW IN CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY HAPPENED A HANDFUL OF TIMES IN
THEIR LONG RECORD OF HISTORY...WE ACTUALLY WILL OBSERVE A TWO DAY
BREAK IN SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER AS THIS WINTER
GOES...THE CONCERN JUST SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WINTER ELEMENT...AND
THAT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE FLASH FREEZING CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS...AND EVEN TREATED ONES MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND THE DEGREE IN WHICH TEMPS DROP. READINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG
CAA. THESE LOOK TO LEVEL OUT OR CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE IT...WITH LOCATIONS HAVING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST AT 30
TO 40 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN OUTLYING
AREAS ON MONDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO MENTIONING THAT WITHIN THE WIND CHILL WARNING
AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY END MONDAY
MORNING.
MTF
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION...AND THE
FINAL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROUGH FINALLY HIGH TAILS IT OUT OF HERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OCCURS WEDNESDAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK VORT STREAMER
SWING THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS TO
WEAK RIDGING LATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOWN THE PLAINS AND PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE SE US LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DROPS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOOKS TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WHILE JUST ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER
PUSHING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CREATING PRECIP FRIDAY.
THE REGION REMAINS DRY...EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORT STREAMER TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. THE JET
LIFTS TO THE NORTH A SMIDGE SATURDAY SO MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS GET CLOSE TO FREEZING SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID KEPT
SNOW FOR EVERYONE.
FOR TEMPS...RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS IN STORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE
PATIENT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AND THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED VERY REASONABLE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
TEMPS. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...WHICH LEADS TO MIN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30 AND -45F. FOR
REFERENCE MIN 925MB TEMPS WILL BE -24 TO -26C MONDAY EVENING AND
ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO AROUND -22C BY MORNING. DESPITE
THE RISING TEMPS ALOFT...SKIES SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAR ALLOWING AMPLE
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THINKING TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 0F TUESDAY.
WE DROP BACK BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF -5 TO -15F AND
MIN WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30F. BUT HAVE NO FEAR...THE WARM UP
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH WAA RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 20. COULD
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST. WENT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS I AM NOT SURE HOW WELL WARMING ALOFT WILL MIX
TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS JUST BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. LOWS DROP OFF
TO +5 TO -5F THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TEMPS REBOUND LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS PSBL BY SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WEST WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20-26KT AT ONSET.
* NW WINDS BECOME VERY GUSTY QUICKLY ARND 1Z THRU 9Z...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 3-9Z NEARING 40KT AND MAY BE HIGHER.
* BURST OF SNOW WITH SNOW ARRIVAL...THEN ENDS ARND 3Z WITH
CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW.
* POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS WITH BURST OF SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW THIS
EVENING THRU OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN THEN LIKELY PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK
MON.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY HAZARDOUS AVIATION CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACRTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BE THE FOCUS...WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST AND BEGAN TO GUSTS AT TIMES TO ARND 20-25KT. CIGS HAVE BEGUN
TO LOWER AS WELL...NEARING MVFR CONDS. WITH THE POWDERY NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE GUSTS WILL EASILY
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS BRIEFLY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
CONDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ONCE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ARRIVES ARND
1-2Z...AND WILL BRING VSBYS DOWN FURTHER WITH A BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. POSSIBLY SEE VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE
WITHIN THIS BURST. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO GUSTS NEARING
36KT AT THE ONSET. THEN GUSTS WILL RISE EVEN HIGHER NEARING 40KT
BY 3Z. CURRENTLY HAVE INDICATED VSBYS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AT
3Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY
WINDS PERSISTING AND LIKELY CAUSING CONTINUED BLOWING SNOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
9Z...WITH CIGS HOVERING ARND HIGH END MVFR AND LOW END VFR THRU
DAYBREAK. THEN A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER THIS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND A
CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE POISED TO REDEVELOP LATE MON MORNING.
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT NOT AS
STRONG AT 20-26KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL...AND SNOW
ARRIVAL/ENDING.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING SNOW IMPACT ON VSBYS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RELATIVELY LIGHTER SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...A QUICKLY APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY HAS SINCE CHANGED THESE CONDITIONS...AND
REPLACED THEM WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...BUT WITH THIS QUICKLY
CHANGING AS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH GALES QUICKLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE AND NEARSHORE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST GALES CAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
REST OF THE DAY MONDAY. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING GALES
COULD LINGER SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
POSSIBILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE END TIME
AND JUST MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BUT ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM
MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6
PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1141 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1105 AM CST
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOWING
SNOW...WHICH WE HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF IN OPEN AREAS
AND JUST EXPERIENCED A SEVERAL MINUTE PERIOD OF 1/4SM IN BLOWING
SNOW HERE AT THE WFO WITH A GUST TO 37 MPH. IN ADDITION...PNT
RECENTLY GUSTED TO 45 MPH. FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT HAVE
INCREASED GUST STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...AND HAVE BOOSTED
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THESE
FURTHER RAISE ONGOING CONCERNS ABOUT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...CONTINUE TO
HIT HARD IN THE ONGOING HEADLINE.
RAPID UPPER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WAVE ALREADY OVER CENTRAL OH THAT
PRODUCED THE EARLIER TWO TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOW QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND
EVOLVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS
WARM FRONT WAS THE ZONE OF RAPID PRESSURE CHANGE THAT BROUGHT THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THIS
CLIPPER WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES
AND EVEN DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S...SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR
IN THESE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY MAKE EXISTING
SNOW COVER SOMEWHAT LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE CALLS AND INQUIRIES FOR VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS.
THE WORSE CONDITIONS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE MORE WE WOULD
LEAN TO AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TONIGHT WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD.
AS FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT...THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MASSIVE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A STAGGERING 250M HEIGHT FALLS WERE OBSERVED AT
500MB THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THIS...WHICH IS
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING NEARLY
DUE SOUTH. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL EVOLVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AND CORRELATE TO NARROW BUT STRONG FORCING IMMEDIATELY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVES POTENTIAL VORTICITY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OCCURRING...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND HOURLY TIMING. THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS A GOOD SETUP
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR EVEN A RIBBON OF SNOW WITH THIS. CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS OF THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /NEGATIVE EPV/ DIRECTLY
ABOVE THAT. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS WITH LIKELY MENTIONED MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-88. HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT HIGH REFLECTIVITY WITHIN
THIS FORCING AND IT IS ATOP THE INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO THE COMBO OF BRIEFLY MODEST
SNOW AND HIGH WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR 1-2 HRS IN SOME
PLACES...AGAIN ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THATS WHERE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED TO 45 MPH FOR A 1-2 HR
PERIOD DURING THIS TIME AND ALREADY SEEING THESE TYPE OF
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM IN IA.
CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOMING VERY POOR IN OUTLYING LOCATIONS AND LIKELY REMAINING SO
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY IF NOT WELL INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM CST
SEVERAL WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCLUDING
ONGOING SNOW THIS MORNING...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO BLOWING
SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT WHICH
WILL STAY IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER NORTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. STRONG
ASCENT AND A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL PROMOTE DRIER THAN AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AND
EXPECT A WINDOW OF NEARLY INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES. GOING FORECAST
WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK THOUGH MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE BAND OF 3-5
INCHES WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
ROCKFORD AREA INTO THE SOUTH SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. ELSEWHERE...2-4
INCHES STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE...EXCEPT SOUTH OF A PERU TO FOWLER
LINE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF.
A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO PUSH
EAST OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW LATER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80...AND AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY BREEZY. UPSTREAM OBS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AND EXPECT THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY LATE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE
WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
PROVIDING BROAD SCALE ASCENT WHILE F-GEN BAND IS SET TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FORCING.
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO AROUND H8 WITH A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO AROUND H7. THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WELL CO-LOCATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT FALLS WITHIN COLDER AIR FARTHER NORTH WHICH
WILL LEAD TO INEFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...STRONG
SHEAR WITH WINDS QUICKLY PUSHING TOWARDS 80KTS AT H7 WOULD BE
DETRIMENTAL TO SNOW GROWTH. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND FORCING QUICKLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
WITHIN THE F-GEN BAND WHICH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SETTING UP SOUTH
OF I-80.
MORE CONCERNING TONIGHT WILL BE THE SHARP UPTICK IN WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA...BUT THE CWA WILL STILL SEE IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF
10-12MB/6HR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE 40-45KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WHICH SHOULD MIX EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. LOCAL 8KM WRF SHOWS A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF WIND GUSTS
PUSHING 40 MPH BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY SNOW FALLING THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS EVENING...REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACTS
FROM BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ADD SOME
DENSITY TO THE SNOW...BUT EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE SUSPECT IT MAY
BE SOMEWHAT NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN HOW COLD THE GROUND TEMPS ARE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS THOUGH WILL ONLY
COMPOUND VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AND REASON FOR NOT GOING WITH A BLIZZARD
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. WHILE I FULLY EXPECT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT 3 HOURS OF OF 35 MPH WINDS TO
MEET THE STRICT CRITERIA FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING. BUT TO BE
CLEAR...EVEN WITH WINDS BLOWING 30 TO 35 MPH OVER THE DRY
SNOW...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NEAR ZERO OR ZERO VISIBILITY
PARTICULARLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS
BAD AS YOU HEAD INTO THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA.
NEXT WEEK...
WELL ADVERTISED COLD SNAP STILL ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH
OVERHEAD...DO NOT SEE ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MAIN STORY CONTINUES
TO BE THE COLD WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS AROUND 40 BELOW NORTH OF I-80 TUESDAY WITH
-30 TO -40 SOUTH OF I-80. A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
TIER OF COUNTIES. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN IS STILL PROGGED TO DAMPEN SOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
CHICAGO ROCKFORD
JAN 27...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -10 -13
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -1 -2
JAN 28...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -13 -22
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -3 -5
JAN 29...
RECORD LOW MIN TEMP -16 -20
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP -6 -9
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST BY MID-DAY AND THEN GUSTING
TO ARND 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTN.
* BLOWING SNOW FROM AFTN ON.
* WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO GUSTS
ARND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER IOWA WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND THEN TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S BY AROUND MID DAY.
THIS COULD CAUSE VSBY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN
AREAS...MOST LIKELY AT RFD/DPA. AN ARCTIC FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO
20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT...HIGHEST OUT
TOWARD RFD. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG
PRESSURE RISES. FURTHERMORE...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IMPACTS ON CIGS. EITHER
WAY...THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND AT LEAST NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD BE COMPOUNDED BY FALLING SNOW. HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO 1/2 SM VSBY AT RFD AND DPA THIS EVENING...WITH
LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT ORD/MDW/GYY.
AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE ON THE SNOW THIS EVENING...RECENT RUNS OF
ONE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS BRINGS A MORE
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 23-05Z...WHILE
MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
BELIEVE THAT THE SCENARIO PORTRAYED BY THE ONE HIGHER RES MODEL IS
OF LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO FURTHER ASSESS TODAY...AS CIG/VSBY IMPACTS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FOR ALL TERMINALS IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR.
WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTIONS GOING.
HAVE KEPT MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT RFD/DPA...WHICH CONCEIVABLY
COULD BE AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS ON VSBY.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
432 AM CST
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...MANY MARINE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THEN LIFT BACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY
THIS EVENING. THIS PATH WILL ENABLE WINDS TO RAMP UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GALES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OPEN WATERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH HALF THIS EVENING...WITH VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ENABLING GALES TO RAMP UP TO 45 KT.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MID
EVENING...NORTHWEST GALES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH HALF OF
THE LAKE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AN EARLIER ONSET THAN EXPECTED
THERE. BITTERLY COLD AIR RUSHING OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING WILL
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WARNING STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR THE OPEN WATERS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ALOFT ON
MONDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE. IF THERE IS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...THE GALE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND MONDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE LAKE. AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL STALL NEAR HUDSON BAY...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT
FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
SUB GALES ON MONDAY...THEY COULD THEN REDEVELOP FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH VERY COLD AIR STILL OVER THE LAKE...BUT THE
NEXT GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR GALES WILL BE SOUTHWEST GALES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ICE COVERAGE IS A BIG FACTOR...BUT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 6PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 9AM MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY FOR NON ICE
COVERED AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022-ILZ023...3 AM
MONDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...3 AM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...3 AM MONDAY
TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ019...3 AM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6
PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM
SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-
LMZ744-LMZ745...6 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1106 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 945 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Huge gradient in weather conditions this morning along forecast
area boundaries. KDVN enduring near blizzard conditions while KGBG
and C75 have temperatures in the middle to upper 30s melting
remaining snow cover. Similar contrast is occuring between KBMI
and KPNT. warm front is moving across eastern forecast area this
morning and have increased high temperatures througout the
forecast area. With temps already near or above freezing through
entire forecast area much of any remaining snow cover should be
reduced significantly. Areas such as KIJX in which there already
is no snow cover will likely approach 50 degrees this afternoon.
Enjoy it today as winter returns this evening.
Barker
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Warm front has swept eastward through terminals this morning with
winds becoming more westerly. With warming temperatures, snow has
been melting and blowing snow should not be an issue today. Any
Cigs should remain VFR or possibly occasionally MVFR. There will
liley be occasional periods without Cigs particularly at KSPI this
afternoon.
A strong cold front will push through the terminals this evening
(02z-04z) with winds shifting to 300-360 degrees and increasing.
With the frontal passage, a short-lived burst of heavy snow is
possible given the strong frotogenetic forcing and will include a
tempo group to reflect that. Latest HRRR suggests any LIFR vsbys
should be less than an hour. A brief period of IFR Cigs will also
be possible immediately behind the front. Clearing should develop
after 06z with gradual decrease in winds after 12z.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 307 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Concern today is the morning light snow, and then the arctic front
this evening.
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night.
Surface data this evening shows the next clipper low pressure
center over northwest IA. Upper wave in moisture channel over
southeast MN diving to the southeast and moving the enhanced pcpn
ahead of it over northern IL. Soundings at ILX and DVN at 00Z
showed the air column very dry and so the saturation of airmass
has been slowed over region. With dry air, have decreased expected
snow amounts this morning over the northern cwa counties.
Expect low to move much as progged, moving over northern IL and
second upper wave noted in moisture channel will drive the arctic
airmass into the region Sunday evening. Models all indicate
significant low level jet from the northwest over eastern IA into
central IL and northern MO behind the front. Will therefore issue
wind advisory for transport of the strong winds to the surface
behind the front this evening and overnight. Will be a brief
period of light snow for a couple hours after the front, with the
significant lift behind the front. Amounts will be very light, so
for that reason will see blowing snow reducing visibilities, but
amount of snow expected to be light, impact will be short lived.
Will have to watch this.
Continuing the wind chill warning and advisories as temperatures
still falling in arctic air and with strong winds. Monday morning
and Tuesday morning will still have the hazardous wind chills.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.
pattern finally shifts during the exceeded period, becoming more
zonal in nature aloft. With that, another front moves through on
Thursday with light snow, plus an overrunning low on Friday night
to also bring some light snow.
Goetsch
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST Tuesday
FOR ILZ040-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL WARNING from Midnight tonight to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-055-057.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT ONLY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BITTER COLD WILL ALSO RETURN BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THEN...SNOW
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND FINALLY A BREAK FROM
THE RELENTLESS WINDS EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. TEMPS HAD
TUMBLED QUICKLY IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 03Z.
ENDLESS STREAM OF CLIPPERS CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT ONE RAPIDLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES. HAVE SOME CONCERN
THAT DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT
AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMS BETWEEN 09-12Z...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT BEING
ERODED COMPLETELY. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL INTENSITY...
RATIOS WILL BE UP IN THE 15-18 TO 1 RANGE WHICH WILL COMPENSATE A
BIT. 00Z NAM AND RAP HAVE BOTH COME IN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MAIN
SWATH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK LIGHT SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 06-07Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES AS THE PRECIP
ARRIVES. FORECAST LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE.
PERTINENT PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVER EVOLVING AND HISTORIC
JANUARY 2014 WINTER. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AS WILL A CLIPPER THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. 285K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AFTER 09Z SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MIXING RATIOS
WERE FROM 2 TO 3 G/KG WHICH FOR A SOLID 12 HOUR SNOW WOULD NORMALLY
PRODUCE AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST LIFT
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST 6 HOURS...2 TO 3 INCHES
LOOKS GOOD MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF INDIANAPOLIS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO THE NORTHWEST OF INDY.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSER TO THE SOUTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST AREAS COULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF THE SNOW WITH
RAIN WHICH COULD FURTHER REDUCE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WENT ON THE COLD
SIDE OF MOS WITH THE SNOW PACK AND TRENDS AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MIX DOWN THERE AS OF YET. WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY SINCE
BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY...AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WIND CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
LIKELY THERE BEFORE 12Z MONDAY...SO STARTED A WIND CHILL WATCH AT
10Z MONDAY. WE INCLUDED THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORT TERM
WILL SHOW THAT ALL COUNTIES SEE WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW NEGATIVE 15
BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON TRENDS AND SNOW PACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
TEMPERATURES...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHORT
TERM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG JUST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE...ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. THEN...WINDS WILL DIE OFF A
BUT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR LOWER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE
NEAR MINUS 40 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BE
COLD BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE AND WIND CHILLS TO MINUS 20. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
SHOULD BE VERY NEAR WHAT THEY WERE AFTER THE SNOW STORM OF JANUARY
5TH OF THIS YEAR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH THE COLDEST 925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES OF 27 BELOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY NOT EVEN WARM UP TO ZERO
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
A SLOW WARM UP IS PROGGED FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES START OUT
BITTERLY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND THEN 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY THAT WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN FROM
INITIALIZATION. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE WARM ADVECTION
AND A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ACCESS TO
MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN WILL WARM
AND SATURATE SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX. MADE
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE INITIALIZATION FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 WITHIN SNOW
NEAR DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER DIVING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS ALREADY RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER...AND
EXPECT SKIES TO CLOUD UP BY 09-10Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRIER
AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING INTO THE DAY...WHICH MAY
LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...SWATH OF STEADIER SNOW APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM SNOW LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO KLAF...AND POSSIBLY KIND AT
TIMES...THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY YET AGAIN BY MIDDAY WITH BLOWING SNOW ONCE
AGAIN AN ISSUE AT ALL TERMINALS. MAX GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
25-30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO SWING INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...LIKELY PASSING THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03-06Z. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTIVE OF A BAND OR
BANDS OF SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LIKELY BRINGING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RYAN/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
353 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Current surface analysis at 20Z shows a prefrontal trough located
across southern NE, while the cold front was not far behind in
central NE. The pressure gradient behind the front is rather
impressive as well as a 20 degree drop in temperature. Given the
current southward speed of the front as well as agreement between
the latest RAP and HRRR it should enter the forecast area around
23Z. By 01Z the front should stretch along a line from Abilene to
Leavenworth, and finally exiting the forecast area around 03Z.
Directly behind this front will be a rapid increase in winds gusting
40 to 50 mph across the entire area. There is the possibility across
the eastern half of the forecast area that gusts reach 50 to 55 mph
directly behind the front. Latest forecast soundings are also
suggesting an isolated rain or snow shower along the front. The
light precip combined with the strong winds could cause brief
periods of low visibilities...no accumulation is expected. Winds
will gradually decrease through the overnight hours still
sustained around 15 to 20 mph at sunrise. Overnight lows reach the
single digits causing wind chills to drop to 15 below zero. Given
the latest forecast trends have will make no changes to the wind and
wind chill advisories. Tomorrow high pressure continues to build
into the region and highs only reach the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
For much of Monday night into Tuesday morning, some of the coldest
air of the season will be holding strong over the area while surface
high pressure dominates the region...centered on the northeast
corner of Kansas. Expect mostly clear skies through the overnight
hours as well, which along with nearly calm winds indicates a very
cold night is in store. It is climatologically very difficult to
fall below zero without snow cover, but it certainly seems possible
on Tuesday morning, especially in northeast KS. Will then have the
base of an upper trough rotate through the area during the day on
Tuesday with some indication of enough moisture and ascent to
support light snow...mainly over central KS. Will have to see how it
plays out as it doesn`t look like much of a precip maker at this
point. Even without precip, could see cloud cover building in after
the very cold morning which may keep daytime temps lower despite
warm advection.
Beyond Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern attempts a gradual
change away from the sharp northerly flow currently in place. A
series of weak disturbances will move through the more zonal flow
pattern, but they are so weak, fast moving, and somewhat lacking of
deep moisture that any precip chances appear very small locally with
each disturbance passing. One such small chance appears to be
maximized on Friday, while another is in store for Sunday. The late
weekend/early next week storm system has better access to deep
moisture with southwesterly upper flow and some Gulf of Mexico
influence but the main question is if the storm track will come
overhead or hold south of the area. Temperatures through the long
term appear fairly stable, and near normal or a bit colder than
normal. Also of note, the short wave troughs in the long term do not
look nearly as windy as the clipper systems of the past two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
Winds will quickly increase as a front pushes southward through
the taf sites. Have the front coming in slightly earlier and have
increased the winds after frontal passage. Latest guidance is
supporting wind gusts approaching 50 mph for a brief period behind
the front. There is also a slight chance for flurries or sprinkles
along and just behind the front, which could temporarily reduce
visibilities and bring in MVFR ceilings. Will continue to monitor
the latest data for a possible TEMPO period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Monday FOR
KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ008>012-020.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
936 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF
0230Z. COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE EASTWARD ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS DURING THE LAST HOUR HAVE
BEEN OVER 20 KTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL STILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS BRING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DESPITE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PREV DISC...COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS GENERALLY ALONG A CARIBOU/FARMINGTON/CONCORD LINE. WE WILL
SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR STATION 50 YR MINIMUMS.
THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL INHIBIT THE COOLING PROCESSES
SOMEWHAT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EXPECTING LOWS NEAR ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS AROUND -5 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WSW WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THEY WILL BE
THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
INTO THE TEENS SOUTH IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS WILL
HAVE MODERATED SLIGHTLY BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
QUITE AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES WILL BE VERY SLOWLY
RETROGRADING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS IN
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MORE
ZONAL WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ONLY MINOR S/WVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE DEEP
ARCTIC AMS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA WILL RETREAT AND REMAIN OVER
CANADA. WITH THIS PATTERN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND REMAIN GUSTY WELL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXCEPT
PSBLY MVFR IN SCT SNW SHWRS THU NIGHT OR FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS. THE
OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER
WATERS.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE E ALLOWING INCREASING S SW FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. A COLD FNT MOVES THRU FRIDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
929 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF
0230Z. COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE EASTWARD ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS DURING THE LAST HOUR HAVE
BEEN OVER 20 KTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL STILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL RUNS BRING RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE
MOUNTAINS DESPITE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PREV DISC...COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS GENERALLY ALONG A CARIBOU/FARMINGTON/CONCORD LINE. WE WILL
SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR STATION 50 YR MINIMUMS.
THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS WILL INHIBIT THE COOLING PROCESSES
SOMEWHAT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EXPECTING LOWS NEAR ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS AROUND -5 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WSW WILL BE GUSTY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THEY WILL BE
THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
INTO THE TEENS SOUTH IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS WILL
HAVE MODERATED SLIGHTLY BUT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
QUITE AS COLD ACROSS THE NORTH. STILL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION OVER THE GT LAKES WILL BE VERY SLOWLY
RETROGRADING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS IN
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MORE
ZONAL WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH ONLY MINOR S/WVES MOVING THRU THE
FLOW. NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE DEEP
ARCTIC AMS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA WILL RETREAT AND REMAIN OVER
CANADA. WITH THIS PATTERN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MODEL GUID FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND REMAIN GUSTY WELL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXCEPT
PSBLY MVFR IN SCT SNW SHWRS THU NIGHT OR FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS. THE
OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER
WATERS.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS. THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE E ALLOWING INCREASING S SW FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. A COLD FNT MOVES THRU FRIDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT SCA LEVELS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
516 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...WESTERLY GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ON SCHEDULE. WITH VERY
LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THEY WILL THEN STEADY OFF WITH THE ADVANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...AND FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP STILL WELL WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST HRRR RUN BRING
STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN NEW YORK BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THEREAFTER LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISC...SFC RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE AREA QUICKLY FROM
THE W ATTM. WILL SEE GUSTY WLY WINDS DROP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS A RESULT. HIGH CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE CWFA BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. IT
SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
CIGS TO LOWER AND ANY PCPN TO BEGIN. BROAD WAA AHEAD OF GREAT
LAKES LOW PRES WILL SUPPORT SCT SHSN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL ASSIST IN LIFT. IN
ADDITION...INITIALLY A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SHSN REACHING INTO PARTS OF THE MIDCOAST AS WINDS BECOME
MORE SWLY. COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FARTHER S.
LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY/S HIGHS.
AFTER AN INITIAL DROP NEAR SUNSET...WAA SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP
READINGS MOSTLY STEADY OR RAISE TEMPS THRU THE NIGHT TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF CURRENT READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHSN LINGER IN WAA MON MORNING...WHILE COLD FNT APPROACHES
FROM THE W. FNT SHOULD ENTER WRN CWFA NEAR NOON ACROSS WRN
ZONES...AND EXIT THE ERN ZONES BY 00Z. ALONG FNT GUIDANCE
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR A CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHSN. SFC WAA
AHEAD OF FROPA WILL BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
COAST...WHERE SHSN MAY MIX WITH RA AT TIMES. LLVL RH PROFILES AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MORE INTENSE
SQUALLS WITHIN THE LINE OF SHSN. QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS AFTER THE
FROPA WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS WHERE SNFL HAS MELTED.
LINGERING UPSLOPE SHSN COULD TACK ON ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES IN
THE MTNS...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PAIR OF SURFACE CYCLONES REMAIN STUCK IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO
OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AS RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME
LESS AMPLIFIED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SE STATES. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME FRAME.
IN THE INTERIM THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER FOR
NEW ENGLAND AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
COLD AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE AS THE WEEK GOES ON. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK ESPECIALLY COLD WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW CLEARING
CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS AS WELL WITH ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED. MAY NEED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT WASHINGTON TO LAKE MOXIE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS A FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MODELS SEEM TO
BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY WASHING THIS OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND PARENT SURFACE LOW FILL. QPF/SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE
AIRMASS REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. OTHER
DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT MAY AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE NOT BEING
RESOLVED WELL BY THE LONG TERM MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. BROAD WAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHSN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNFL.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ON MON...UNTIL COLD
FNT SWEEPS THRU WITH A BAND OF SHSN ALONG IT. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NH AND WRN ME.
WLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND COLD FNT YET AGAIN LATE MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WITH WSW WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. POSSIBLE
LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL
RELAX FOR A TIME. GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA
CONDITIONS BEFORE 00Z...BUT SCA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. SCA IN THE BAYS WILL BE ABLE TO COME DOWN BY 00Z AS
WELL. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WAA
EASES THE THREAT. BEHIND COLD FNT LATE MON NIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE.
LONG TERM...SOMEWHAT GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
ON MONDAY DRIVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBERVATIONAL DATA. ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS VT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NH AND ME OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ISOLD SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE AND RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS ARE EXPECTED.
9 PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IN NEW YORK STATE...A LONG LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...REACHING WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 07Z. THE INTENSITY OF THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
USED WIND EFFECT TOOL TO BRING SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AS WNW FLOW DEVELOPS.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
PREV DISC...AT 19Z...A 984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE GASPE PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY DRAGGING THE
COLD FRONTS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE`LL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE MAINE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAYBE JUST INLAND FROM THE MID COAST WHERE OCEAN
EFFECT CONTINUES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID COAST...THE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP WELL INTO THE 30S
WHERE MELTING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH OR BRIEF CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AS FUNNELING BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PENINSULA`S MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE`LL SEE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR...BUT VERY COLD AND WINDY ON SUNDAY AS ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT A
GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN APPRECIABLE WIND
CHILL. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSTED FOR AT
LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS DROP OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DUSK THEN SHOULD
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS ARRIVE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE...WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS BREAKING OUT MAINLY
NORTH OF A LEBANON /KLEB/ TO PORTLAND /KPWM/ LINE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY USHERING IN REINFORCING COLD AIR EVERY 24-36 HOURS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
MOISTURE RETURN ISN`T GOOD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SHUTS
PRECIPITATION OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEAR 1-3 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
OVER THE MIDCOAST.
DENSE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT SUCCEEDS IN HOLDING OFF THE
NEXT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY THIS TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE MODERATED SOMEWHAT AND UPPER LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE ZERO DEGREE SURFACE ISOTHERM JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER.
AFTER A WARM UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS FROM NEAR ZERO TO -10 DEGREES
F AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS/20S SOUTH. A
SW/W WIND CONTRIBUTES TOWARDS A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH WND GUSTS TO 25 KT. VFR SUNDAY WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO
25 KT. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AFT 06Z MON IN LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM...AREAS OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR BECOMING VFR MONDAY BY NOON AS
SHOWERS MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GALES FOR ALL WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. A BREAK IN THE GALES IS
EXPECTED FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE THEY REDEVELOP BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. WE SHOULD SEE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...HENCE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5
FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS CALM DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001-
002.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
642 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF EXPANSIVE POLAR
VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. CORE OF THE
COLDEST ARCTIC AIR MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. WITH BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
NOW EAST OF THE CWA...LES BANDS ON RADAR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE SPACED APART DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
ERN SHORELINE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS CONTINUE IN THE -23 TO -30F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS TO FALL TO THE -30F TO -35F RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...FOCUSING LES
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION COULD
ENHANCED LES TONIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS WHERE LES ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EAST AND INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF A DGZ.
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHERE LES IS OCCURRING.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BECAUSE A STEADY WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED MORE OVER THE AREA
INSTEAD OF OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN
THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT WON`T BE THE CASE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
ALONG THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF AREA AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK WEST OR WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES
OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE AREAS BY EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY PUSH
LES INTO MAINLY KEWEENAW COUNTY OVER THE NW BY TUE AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TUESDAY AT CMX...FAVORED BY WRLY WINDS. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VLIFR RANGE WITH OCNL PERIODS BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT IWD AND SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WED MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES TO
40 KTS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW GALES TO 35 KT
WED NIGHT WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THU INTO FRI MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-248-264-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1224 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR FROM THE CLIPPER RUNNING A TOUCH ABOVE THE FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.
DID ADJUST THE GROUPINGS ON THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS TO ADD SOME
MENTIONS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WANTED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS AS ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING LIGHT...BUT GOOD VISIBILITY RESTRICTING...SNOWFALL TO
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLIPPER SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LEAD TO
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES TONIGHT. THINK THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KCMX TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THEY WILL TURN
TO A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR THE FINE FLAKE SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO LEAD TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINS. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KIWD THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST.
KSAW IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE MESO-LOW
BEING PULLED SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL STAY FAR TO THE EAST OF THE SITE...BUT COULD SEE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
OFF/ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE IT WILL BE
GUSTY...HAVE HELD ONTO LOWER VISIBILITIES AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THEM BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR/MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1115 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR FROM THE CLIPPER RUNNING A TOUCH ABOVE THE FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.
DID ADJUST THE GROUPINGS ON THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS TO ADD SOME
MENTIONS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WANTED TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS AS ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA TODAY. DUE TO
ARCTIC AIR...SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALL AND THUS EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING
VIS. AS A RESULT...IFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE ALSO LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTN AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF -SHSN/BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD AND ESPECIALLY KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. IFR SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KSAW...BUT CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO LIFR IF SNOW IS
HEAVIER OR WIND STRONGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
706 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SN TO THE AREA TODAY. DUE TO
ARCTIC AIR...SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALL AND THUS EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING
VIS. AS A RESULT...IFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TODAY...THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE ALSO LIKELY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTN AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF -SHSN/BLSN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD AND ESPECIALLY KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. IFR SHOULD
CONTINUE AT KSAW...BUT CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO LIFR IF SNOW IS
HEAVIER OR WIND STRONGER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY. AROUND THE VORTEX...ONE SHORTWAVE IS
SWINGING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND MUCH STRONGER
WAVE IS DROPPING THRU SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. FIRST WAVE IS
SPREADING AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL/NRN IN. SNOW THEN
EXTENDS BACK TO THE NW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE. FORCING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING -SN SPREADING INTO THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI. STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE REALLY CHANGED THE
ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR
AS ICE COVER IN THE MODELS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT
STATE OF ICE. THUS...MODELS WILL BE INCORRECTLY HANDLING
WINDS/CONVERGENCE/LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THE ICE COVER THAT WAS ROUGHLY
BTWN MANITOU ISLAND AND SHOT POINT WEST TO KEWEENAW BAY IS CLEARLY
BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES AS WAS EVIDENT
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS THAT STREAMED INTO MARQUETTE/WRN
ALGER COUNTIES YESTEDAY. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS PLENTY OF
OPEN WATER. A BIG PORTION OF THE ICE THAT WAS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
APPEARS TO BE OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR NOW.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL FCST THINKING SINCE YESTERDAY.
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE WRN LAKES. THERE`S NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO
1G/KG. ANOTHER NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER
RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCSTS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TODAY. SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL PROBABLY MAKE
FOR LOWER VIS THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE
850MB WINDS BACK ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE AS MESOLOW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ENHANCMENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT N TO
NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...SNOW MAY BE HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE W. EVEN SO...WITH DGZ ELIMINATED BY COLD AIR...LOW
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
MORE CRITICAL PART OF THE FCST IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. DIMINISHING GRADIENT WIND FIELD AND STRENGTHENING LAND
BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY LEADING TO MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE LAKE
SUPERIOR PER SFC/MARINE OBS. WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY
SHORTWAVE...MESOLOW SHOULD REALLY SPIN UP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS N OR
NW. ALL HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...BUT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE EWD TRACK AS THE LOW HEADS BACK S WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE LATE AFTN/EVENING. CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY FOR LANDFALL NEAR
GRAND MARAIS. A BAND OF HVY LES IS EXPECTED ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE
LOW...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY INDICATING THIS BAND AFFECTING
THE AREA BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL ICE
COVER TOO EXTENSIVE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW...WOULD EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT LES TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER W IN ALGER COUNTY EVEN IF
LOW IN FACT DOES MOVE ONSHORE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A CORE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS (950MB WINDS OF 40-50KT) ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW AIMED
TOWARD THE MUNISING AREA. COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE PRES RISE/FALL
COUPLET...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ALGER
COUNTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BTWN DEERTON AND MUNISING. HAVE THUS
CONVERTED BLIZZARD WATCH TO WARNING FOR ALGER COUNTY...AND ISSUED
LES ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHERE WINDS FARTHER INLAND WON`T BE
NEARLY AS SIGNIFICANT. WRN EDGE OF STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CLIP
KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO ALSO ISSUED LES ADVY THERE TONIGHT/MON MORNING
FOR CONSIDERABLE BLSN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE 2-3
INCHES. DURING THE DAY...WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPANDING
ADVY OVER WRN UPPER MI AS SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER EXISTS TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD -SHSN WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW VIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
OCNL BLSN.
ELSEWHERE...CONVERTED WIND CHILL WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR OR BLO -35F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE FIRST 2 DAYS /THROUGH
TUESDAY/.
FOR MON...AT 12Z THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER FAR
SERN ONTARIO AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SFC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SHARP AS THE CLIPPER LOW DEPARTS
THE REGION AND A 1040MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...AND
HIGH RES MODEL INDICATE A MESO LOW OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON
MORNING. ALONG THE W SIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESO LOW WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND A STRONG LES BAND THAT LOOKS TO BE OVER ALGER
COUNTY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS W OF THE MESO
LOW...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT /SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION/ INTO MON MORNING. BY 18Z MON...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE
MESO LOW SHIFTING TO THE E...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AND NW WINDS THAT WERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE WLY BEHIND
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT LES WHILE WEAKENING IT DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING OUT. WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS
AND SNOW MORE FOCUSED DURING SUN NIGHT /SHORT TERM FORECAST/...WILL
TALK ABOUT THE COLD TEMPS FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE -30C TO -35C FROM 12Z-18Z MON...WARMING TO -25C TO -30C BY 00Z
TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MON OF AROUND 0F E TO AROUND
-10F WEST WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F /COLDEST OVER THE W HALF
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON/.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE WLY MON NIGHT WHILE THE COLD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -25C...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND CENTRAL U.P. MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS AROUND
-25F OVER THE WELL INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS.
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS TO 15-25KTS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -30F TO -45F DURING THIS TIME. LES WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT...BUT FOR MORE WNW FAVORED SNOW BELTS. WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE.
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BARELY SHIFT MORE WLY ON TUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO -20C TO -25C. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LES IN WNW WIND
SNOWBELTS. WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE SHOULD GUST TO
30-35KTS...CONTINUING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AFTER TUE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WED INTO
THU...WITH DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM STILL BEING SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOCUS ATTENTION TO FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM GIVEN
IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD...AND USE A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR
FORECASTS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BACKING SOUTHWEST...THE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY
LATE TONIGHT AT CMX/SAW. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT....EXPECT THE
FINE FLAKES TO AGAIN BE GOOD AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAVE
LOWERED VALUES TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHES...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGHT SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI AS IT DEEPENS THIS EVENING. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SINK TO THE SE CONUS BY
WED. EXPECT NW GALES TO 35 TO 40 KTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE
OPEN WATER REMAINS/ FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE UNDER THE SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOW IN QUEBEC. THE GALES
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/FLATTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO JAMES BAY ON THU...DRAGGING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
MAY DEVELOP ON WED NIGHT AND THU UNDER THE SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ006.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-
245-264>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Big warm-up on tap for today with well-above average temps. Winds
have already swung around to southerly overnight and temps have
been slowly creeping upward. The warm front now extending from the
surface low in north central Iowa into western MO will surge
eastward across the CWA this morning as the surface low moves into
the Great Lakes, with winds veering to southwest and then westerly
and strong warm advection across the area. I have boosted temps
from the previous forecast and am close to the last few hourly
runs of the RAP which appear to have a good handle on the current
temperatures here and upstream. Highs in most locations should get
into the 50s. Enjoy the warmth...it ends tonight!
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
A powerful Arctic cold front will drive like a freight train through
the CWA tonight. A strong pressure gradient and large pressure
rises behind the front all point to very strong and gusty NW winds
with the fropa. Have issued a wind advisory for all but southeast
Missouri anticipating a 3-4 period with sustained winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 45+. In addition to intense cold advection and
plummeting temperatures, it appears that strong low level
frontogenetic forcing and weak large scale ascent will produce a
narrow band of snow immediately in the cold air. The band will be
moving so quickly and the wind blowing so hard that any
accumulations will be very light. Dangerous wind chills of 15 to
20 below zero are still on target late tonight and into Tuesday
morning across northeast MO into central IL due to various
combinations of the wind and bitterly cold ambient air
temperatures. The previously issued wind chill advisory looks
right on target for the anticipated high threat area. The bitterly
cold Arctic air mass will dominate the area into Tuesday, and will
be the coldest since the early January Arctic Outbreak.
During the later half of the week ahead and into next weekend the
upper air pattern finally breaks down. The longwave trof which has
dominated eastern NOAM for weeks will weaken and shift northeastward
as amplification occurs from the eastern Pacific into the western
U.S. and the negative phase of the PNA pattern becomes established.
There are some important differences in the deterministic model
solutions during this time frame with regards to shortwave
features with the developing wsw flow aloft, the location of a
baroclinic zone and the depth/magnitude of cold air. This leads
to greater uncertainty than normal in the details, however all
guidance points to increasing precipitation chances next weekend
and potential for wintery precipitation.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
VFR for the first 6 hours with gusty west winds diminishing late
this afternoon. Attention then turns to the very strong arctic
front which will impact all terminals tonight between 01-05z. When
the front arrives, expect a sharp wind shift to the northwest and
a rapid increase in both the sustained wind speed and wind gusts.
Based on what`s been happening upstream, some gusts may even
exceed 40 kts. In addition to bitterly cold air, scattered snow
showers may also accompany the front. At this point I`m not sure
whether any visibility restrictions for the first few hours after
fropa would be due to falling/blowing snow, blowing dust, or both.
To some extent, this may depend on the land characteristics near
and upstream of each terminal, but the winds will certainly be
strong enough to lift loose dirt and dust since there is no snow
cover and temperatures warmed into the 40s- 50s today. Winds will
gradually diminish during the day tomorrow.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR for the first 6 hours with gusty west
winds diminishing late this afternoon. Attention then turns to
the very strong arctic front which will slam through the terminal
tonight around 03-04z. When the front arrives, expect a sharp wind
shift to the northwest and a rapid increase in both the sustained
wind speed and wind gusts. Based on what`s been happening
upstream, some gusts may even exceed 40 kts. In addition to
bitterly cold air, scattered snow showers may also accompany the
front. At this point I`m not sure whether any visibility
restrictions for the first few hours after fropa would be due to
falling/blowing snow, blowing dust, or both. Winds will gradually
diminish during the day tomorrow.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
553 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Big warm-up on tap for today with well-above average temps. Winds
have already swung around to southerly overnight and temps have
been slowly creeping upward. The warm front now extending from the
surface low in north central Iowa into western MO will surge
eastward across the CWA this morning as the surface low moves into
the Great Lakes, with winds veering to southwest and then westerly
and strong warm advection across the area. I have boosted temps
from the previous forecast and am close to the last few hourly
runs of the RAP which appear to have a good handle on the current
temperatures here and upstream. Highs in most locations should get
into the 50s. Enjoy the warmth...it ends tonight!
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
A powerful Arctic cold front will drive like a freight train through
the CWA tonight. A strong pressure gradient and large pressure
rises behind the front all point to very strong and gusty NW winds
with the fropa. Have issued a wind advisory for all but southeast
Missouri anticipating a 3-4 period with sustained winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 45+. In addition to intense cold advection and
plummeting temperatures, it appears that strong low level
frontogenetic forcing and weak large scale ascent will produce a
narrow band of snow immediately in the cold air. The band will be
moving so quickly and the wind blowing so hard that any
accumulations will be very light. Dangerous wind chills of 15 to
20 below zero are still on target late tonight and into Tuesday
morning across northeast MO into central IL due to various
combinations of the wind and bitterly cold ambient air
temperatures. The previously issued wind chill advisory looks
right on target for the anticipated high threat area. The bitterly
cold Arctic air mass will dominate the area into Tuesday, and will
be the coldest since the early January Arctic Outbreak.
During the later half of the week ahead and into next weekend the
upper air pattern finally breaks down. The longwave trof which has
dominated eastern NOAM for weeks will weaken and shift northeastward
as amplfication occurs from the eastern Pacific into the western
U.S. and the negative phase of the PNA pattern becomes established.
There are some important differences in the deterministic model
solutions during this time frame with regards to shortwave
features with the developing wsw flow aloft, the location of a
baroclinic zone and the depth/magnitude of cold air. This leads
to greater uncertainty than normal in the details, however all
guidance points to increasing precipitation chances next weekend
and potential for wintery precipitation.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
As surface low weakens and tracks to the east into the great lakes
region, south to southwest winds to pickup near 15kts with gusts
to near 25kts at times with just some mid and high clouds. Still
experiencing LLWS mainly over KCOU and metro area tafs, so kept
mention for a few more hours this morning as winds continue to mix
down to the surface. Then gradient weakens by this afternoon ahead
of strong arctic front so winds to diminish. Then the cold front
to move into KUIN by 02z, KCOU by 03z and metro area by 04z. Winds
quickly veer to the northwest to north behind the boundary and
pickup with sustained winds near 30kts and gusts near 40kts. Low
end vfr cigs to move in with some light snow/snow showers. By late
in the forecast period, will see winds diminish just a bit but
continue to see gusts near 30kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
As surface low weakens and tracks to the east into the great lakes
region, south to southwest winds to pickup near 15kts with gusts
to near 25kts at times with just some mid and high clouds. Still
experiencing LLWS over metro area, so kept mention through 15z this
morning as winds continue to mix down to the surface. Then
gradient weakens by 22z this afternoon ahead of strong arctic
front so winds to diminish. Then the cold front to move into metro
area by 04z Monday. Winds quickly veer to the northwest to north behind
the boundary and pickup with sustained winds near 30kts and gusts
near 40kts. Low end vfr cigs to move in with some flurries/snow
showers. By 11z Monday, will see winds diminish just a bit but
continue to see gusts near 30kts.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 56 6 12 0 / 5 30 0 0
Quincy 49 -1 5 -7 / 10 40 0 0
Columbia 56 6 13 -2 / 0 30 0 0
Jefferson City 58 8 14 -1 / 0 30 0 0
Salem 51 6 10 -2 / 5 30 5 0
Farmington 58 10 15 -1 / 0 30 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
Big warm-up on tap for today with well-above average temps. Winds
have already swung around to southerly overnight and temps have
been slowly creeping upward. The warm front now extending from the
surface low in north central Iowa into western MO will surge
eastward across the CWA this morning as the surface low moves into
the Great Lakes, with winds veering to southwest and then westerly
and strong warm advection across the area. I have boosted temps
from the previous forecast and am close to the last few hourly
runs of the RAP which appear to have a good handle on the current
temperatures here and upstream. Highs in most locations should get
into the 50s. Enjoy the warmth...it ends tonight!
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2014
A powerful Arctic cold front will drive like a freight train through
the CWA tonight. A strong pressure gradient and large pressure
rises behind the front all point to very strong and gusty NW winds
with the fropa. Have issued a wind advisory for all but southeast
Missouri anticipating a 3-4 period with sustained winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 45+. In addition to intense cold advection and
plummeting temperatures, it appears that strong low level
frontogenetic forcing and weak large scale ascent will produce a
narrow band of snow immediately in the cold air. The band will be
moving so quickly and the wind blowing so hard that any
accumulations will be very light. Dangerous wind chills of 15 to
20 below zero are still on target late tonight and into Tuesday
morning across northeast MO into central IL due to various
combinations of the wind and bitterly cold ambient air
temperatures. The previously issued wind chill advisory looks
right on target for the anticipated high threat area. The bitterly
cold Arctic air mass will dominate the area into Tuesday, and will
be the coldest since the early January Arctic Outbreak.
During the later half of the week ahead and into next weekend the
upper air pattern finally breaks down. The longwave trof which has
dominated eastern NOAM for weeks will weaken and shift northeastward
as amplfication occurs from the eastern Pacific into the western
U.S. and the negative phase of the PNA pattern becomes established.
There are some important differences in the deterministic model
solutions during this time frame with regards to shortwave
features with the developing wsw flow aloft, the location of a
baroclinic zone and the depth/magnitude of cold air. This leads
to greater uncertainty than normal in the details, however all
guidance points to increasing precipitation chances next weekend
and potential for wintery precipitation.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2014
Low level wind shear continues to be the primary focus for the
rest of the night. A 50-60kt low level jet between 1000-2000ft
will develop over the next 2 to 6 hours from north to south ahead
of the next clipper to affect the region. Wind shear conditions
will persist until mid-morning when the low level inversion will
mix out and winds will begin to gust. Luckily by that time it
looks like the clipper will have turned the corner and begun
moving away so gusts should only be around 25kts across most of
the area. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through
Sunday afternoon into the early evening. A sharp cold front will
move into the area between 00Z and 03Z Sunday evening. The front
will barrel through the area like a freight train with the wind
turning sharply to the north-northwest. Sustained winds in excess
of 30kts with gusts to 40kts or more look likely for several hours
behind the front. Some light snow also looks possible. Unsure how
low the ceilings will go, but MVFR is likely behind the front
with conditions possibly slipping to IFR in the snow showers.
Specifics for KSTL:
Low level wind shear continues to be the primary focus for the
rest of the night. A 50-60kt low level jet between 1000-2000ft
will develop toward 10Z ahead of the next clipper to affect the
region. Wind shear conditions will persist until mid-morning when
the low level inversion will mix out and winds will begin to gust.
Luckily by that time it looks like the clipper will have turned
the corner and begun moving away so gusts should be 25kts or less.
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
afternoon into the early evening. A sharp cold front will pass
across the terminal between 04-05Z. The front will barrel through
the area like a freight train with the wind turning sharply to the
north- northwest. Sustained winds in excess of 25kts with gusts to
40kts or more look likely for several hours behind the front. Some
light snow also looks possible. Unsure how low ceilings will go,
but MVFR is likely behind the front with conditions possibly
slipping to IFR in the snow showers.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 56 6 12 0 / 5 30 0 0
Quincy 49 -1 5 -7 / 10 40 0 0
Columbia 56 6 13 -2 / 0 30 0 0
Jefferson City 58 8 14 -1 / 0 30 0 0
Salem 51 6 10 -2 / 5 30 5 0
Farmington 58 10 15 -1 / 0 30 5 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Warren MO.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Shelby MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM Monday to Noon CST Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1254 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
WITH OBS UPSTREAM GUSTING AT/ABOVE 58 MPH...VTN AT 63 MPH AND ANW
AT 58 MPH...DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE GUSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
SURGE OF A PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND HAVE SO FAR BEEN
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...SO WENT WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY IN CASE A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
IS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA WILL BE
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING IN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30
TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 MPH.
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO SETTLE IN...GUSTY WINDS /THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING/ WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DECIDED TO INSERT
A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AND INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR. LEFT AS A TEMPO AT
THIS POINT AS MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH WHETHER THE
TERMINAL WOULD BE AFFECTED...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
AFTERNOON PASSES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADO
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1137 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA WILL BE
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING IN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30
TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AS ARE GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 MPH.
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
TO SETTLE IN...GUSTY WINDS /THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING/ WILL LINGER EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW...SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DECIDED TO INSERT
A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AND INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR. LEFT AS A TEMPO AT
THIS POINT AS MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH WHETHER THE
TERMINAL WOULD BE AFFECTED...AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE
AFTERNOON PASSES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
...VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BITTER COLD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT US WITHIN A VERY MILD REGIME WITH
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE...MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 18-21Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
21-00Z. HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...THE
BIG QUESTION IS IF WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...AS THEY HAVE WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS FRONTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE`LL
MIX VERY DEEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR UP TO 750/725 MB.
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT 60 TO 70 KNOTS. NAM
AND RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHER MODEL SUITES AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG.
COMPOUNDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW...WHICH WILL
HELP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. NAM DOESN`T DEVELOP
MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER MODEL SUITES DO. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY 03Z HOPWRF RUNS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY VISIBILITY DROPS ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
TO SNOW AS WELL...AND WHETHER THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO A HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...
WHERE MOMENTUM MIXING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG SINCE THE SUN WILL
HAVE SET BY THEN. HIGH WIND WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE CONVERTED
INTO A WIND ADVISORY AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL SUBSIDES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WOULD BEST BE MANAGED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH
UPDATES BASED ON REAL TIME REPORTS.
SECONDARY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC SURGE OF LAST WEEK. WHEN COUPLED
WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS WILL HAVE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY MONDAY...AND SUB ZERO
READINGS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BECAUSE IT`S COLDER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 28 BELOW OVER SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
A COLD DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THE EXTENDED INVOLVE ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECENT POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE 30S...THEN COLDER
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THAT.
BIGGER CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES GIVING US
A PRETTY CHANCE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF ALSO HAVE A WAVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE
THIS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW CHANCES MAY BE INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
COUPLE ISSUES OF INTEREST DURING THE FCST PD. FIRST IS BRIEF PD
OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL AS GUSTY NW
WINDS. RADAR TRENDS LAST COUPLE HOURS SHOWING AREA OF RETURNS
OVER SD MAKING A QUICK DASH SWD WITH INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS. MOST
LIKELY THAT PCPN TYPE WHEN IT ARRIVES AT KOFK WILL BE -SN
ACCOMPANIED BY BLSN/LIFR VSBYS LATE THIS AFTN. AS FOR
KOMA/KLNK...PCPN TYPE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS BRUNT OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL JUST BE ARRIVING. SUSPECT PCPN TYPE AT THOSE SITES WILL BE
-RA/SN MIX MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND MAYBE EARLY EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUM EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINALS.
NEXT...INTENSE SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND
45KT THIS AFTN THEN AROUND 30KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THEN
BY 12Z MON MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ078-088>090-092.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ068-091-093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
520 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVING
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESSIVE
OF 40KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD MONDAY MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WITH FROPA BUT
NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO INSERT IN TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
...VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BITTER COLD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT US WITHIN A VERY MILD REGIME WITH
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE...MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 18-21Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
21-00Z. HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...THE
BIG QUESTION IS IF WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...AS THEY HAVE WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS FRONTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE`LL
MIX VERY DEEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR UP TO 750/725 MB.
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT 60 TO 70 KNOTS. NAM
AND RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHER MODEL SUITES AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG.
COMPOUNDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW...WHICH WILL
HELP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. NAM DOESN`T DEVELOP
MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER MODEL SUITES DO. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY 03Z HOPWRF RUNS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY VISIBILITY DROPS ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
TO SNOW AS WELL...AND WHETHER THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO A HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...
WHERE MOMENTUM MIXING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG SINCE THE SUN WILL
HAVE SET BY THEN. HIGH WIND WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE CONVERTED
INTO A WIND ADVISORY AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL SUBSIDES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WOULD BEST BE MANAGED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH
UPDATES BASED ON REAL TIME REPORTS.
SECONDARY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC SURGE OF LAST WEEK. WHEN COUPLED
WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS WILL HAVE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY MONDAY...AND SUB ZERO
READINGS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BECAUSE IT`S COLDER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 28 BELOW OVER SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
A COLD DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THE EXTENDED INVOLVE ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECENT POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE 30S...THEN COLDER
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THAT.
BIGGER CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES GIVING US
A PRETTY CHANCE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF ALSO HAVE A WAVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE
THIS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW CHANCES MAY BE INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINSHOWERS/SNOWSHOWERS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS...GENERALLY FL040 TO FL100. THIS MORNING...THE WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS WINDS WILL BE MORE IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35KT WITH GUSTS 40-50KT
AFTER 17-18Z AT KOFK AND REACHING KOMA AND KLNK 20-22Z.
RAINSHOWERS/SNOWSHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR...THUS WILL MENTION IN THE TAFS BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM AT KOFK
AND 2PM-5PM AT KOMA/KLNK. VSBYS MAY DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
FALLING SNOW AND WIND. DUE TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS CAN
BE REFINED AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. ALSO THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY...SO WILL NEED TO BE ALERT TO THIS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ078-088>090-092.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ068-091-093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ090-091.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
330 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HUDSON BAY AND AND SWINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS...ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC END TO OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
ABOARD INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS.
CURRENTLY A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN STEADY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE 40S AND 50S. AS SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR HAS MIXED TO THE SFC THE TEMP AT ORD JUMPED TO 53 DEGREES
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
UPSTREAM...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THRU CANADA
TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD WEATHER WITH STEADY/GUSTY
WINDS WITH WINDS TRENDING UP FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES/DEEPENS.
THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING WILL SEE THE BIGGER WEATHER
CHANGES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 21Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE NEB/KS STATELINE
BY 00Z AND CLEARS OUR CWA BY 03Z. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS N/S THIS AFTN/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG VERY
IMPRESSIVE THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER
OF 12MB. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP MIXING AS HIGH AS H8
WILL LEAD TO INTENSE WINDS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES. STILL HAVE
CONCERNS FOR REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER PER RAP SOUNDINGS AVERAGE
NEAR 50KTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY...AND
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNING IF WINDS TREND UP
MUCH FURTHER. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN FRONTOGENESIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT WITH LLVL MOISTURE LACKING.
TONIGHT...A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS ONTO
THE PLAINS...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD MORNING
AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE STEADY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
FRIGID WIND CHILLS AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONGEST DURATION.
IF TEMPS TREND LOWER OR WINDS REMAIN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND CHILL
READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE FAR NORTH
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FAR NORTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA OFF AND ON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS TIME THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
BOTH HAVE A LITTLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
THE FOCUS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE ON WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND WINDS WILL BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ABOVE THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LLWS IN THE TAF. THE WINDS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH NORTHWESTERLY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS KGRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING FURTHER. HAVE WENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 40KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG/GUSTY IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ072>077-082>087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
...VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BITTER COLD LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT US WITHIN A VERY MILD REGIME WITH
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. WHILE TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE...MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 18-21Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
21-00Z. HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...THE
BIG QUESTION IS IF WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...AS THEY HAVE WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS FRONTS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT WE`LL
MIX VERY DEEP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR UP TO 750/725 MB.
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT 60 TO 70 KNOTS. NAM
AND RAP ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL BOTH
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. OTHER MODEL SUITES AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG.
COMPOUNDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW...WHICH WILL
HELP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. NAM DOESN`T DEVELOP
MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER MODEL SUITES DO. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT A CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
SURGE OF COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY SHOWN BY 03Z HOPWRF RUNS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY VISIBILITY DROPS ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
TO SNOW AS WELL...AND WHETHER THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO A HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...
WHERE MOMENTUM MIXING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG SINCE THE SUN WILL
HAVE SET BY THEN. HIGH WIND WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE CONVERTED
INTO A WIND ADVISORY AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL SUBSIDES THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WOULD BEST BE MANAGED IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH
UPDATES BASED ON REAL TIME REPORTS.
SECONDARY IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IS THE ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT.
READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SIMILAR TO THE ARCTIC SURGE OF LAST WEEK. WHEN COUPLED
WITH WINDS STILL IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS WILL HAVE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY MONDAY...AND SUB ZERO
READINGS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BECAUSE IT`S COLDER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 28 BELOW OVER SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
A COLD DAY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THE EXTENDED INVOLVE ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DECENT POTENTIAL TO WARM BACK INTO THE 30S...THEN COLDER
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THAT.
BIGGER CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
PAINTING A FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES GIVING US
A PRETTY CHANCE OF SNOW. THE ECMWF ALSO HAVE A WAVE...BUT IS A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE
THIS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SNOW CHANCES MAY BE INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN SD WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO ERN IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY AND SHIFT SFC WINDS FROM SW TO NW AT TAF SITES BEFORE 09Z.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD STILL
BRING WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES TONIGHT AS THESE WINDS
REMAIN STRONGER WITH MORE OF NORTH COMPONENT THAN SFC WINDS.
ALTHOUGH AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME NW LATER TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
COULD BECOME LESS OF A THREAT. AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF WIND
GUSTS AS WINDS BECOME NW...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME IN THE
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY AS MIXING DEEPENS.
AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PRESS INTO NERN NEBR AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER NOON WILL RACE INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO WINDS AND SHIFT THEM TO MORE NRLY. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COOLING BEHIND
FRONT COULD BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. MAIN THREAT
STILL APPEARED TO BE OVER NERN NEBR WHERE A PROB30 MENTION WAS
MAINTAINED IN KOFK TAF.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR NEZ045-050>053-065>067.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ068-078-088>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR IAZ090-091.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-
080-090-091.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1129 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
I LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AND WITH THE WIND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE
ERIE WERE DECREASING WHILE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO WOOD COUNTY WAS PRODUCING SOME SNOW. BOTH BANDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WINDS AT 925 MB SHIFTS FROM
THE NW TO THE WEST AND THEN THE SW BY DAYBREAK. INCREASED THE POPS
FOR A FEW HOURS OVER NW OHIO AND ADDED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. THE
BANDS OF SNOW OVER NE OHIO WILL SHIFT A LITTLE. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. SNOW
SQUALLS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO SINCE 1 PM AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEARS DOWN UPON US. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE
SNOW SQUALLS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH 7 PM...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TO PUSH INLAND INTO
THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH.
1000-850MB OMEGA HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING THIS
THREAT AND BOTH THE NAM12 AND RUC13 SHOWS THE PEAK HAS OCCURRED.
CONSIDERED CANCELLING THE ADVISORY IN NW OHIO BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS OVER NRN INDIANA WILL
SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...AN INCH OR LOCALLY UP TO 2...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
HOWEVER THAT THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
AROUND 8-12 MPH BY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WHOLE AREA STARTING AFTER 10 PM AS THE NEXT PUSH OF REALLY
COLD AIR ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH BRISK WIND
TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WHERE THE
LANDSCAPE IS MORE OPEN. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS FROM TOLEDO TO
MOUNT VERNON BUT WANTED TO KEEP IT SEPARATE FROM THE CURRENT
HEADLINES AS THERE WILL BE A SIZEABLE BREAK IN THE SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN NW PA TO UPPER 2OS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 DEGREES NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND -10 TO -15 DEGREES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -25 AND WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
NEEDING EITHER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MODERATION IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS THE POLAR
VORTEX LESSONS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND RETREATS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. HOWEVER ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE VORTEX NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE RATHER SIMILAR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WHICH ADDS TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING BUT WITH ONLY MODEST
COOLING AND WON`T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST FOR SATURDAY AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MULTI LAKE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE. SOME
OF THE STRONGER BANDS ARE PRODUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT AS FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SOUTHWEST THAT
THESE BANDS WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE SHORE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP WITH TIME AND THEN
IMPROVE TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS
OTHER WISE WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY. NON VFR MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED SO WAVES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. A
VERY CHANGEABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS QUICKLY
CROSSING THE REGION WITH WELL DEFINED WIND FIELDS THAT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW GALE WARNING THRESHOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON... WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES
THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...BC/LAPLANTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...USHERING IN YET ANOTHER BLAST OF DANGEROUSLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT AND ASSOC BAND OF LGT OVERRUNNING SNOW IS RAPIDLY
LIFTING THRU NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND RAP GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY LGT SNOW
WILL CLEAR THE N TIER COUNTIES BY ARND 00Z. ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
LESS HAVE BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL MTNS.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DRY WX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY FORCING SOUTH
OF WARM FRONT WILL BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE N MTNS...BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY ARND 12Z. BLEND OF MDL QPF IMPLIES A FRESH
INCH OR SO IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW MTNS TOWARDS DAWN.
TEMPS ARE RISING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION. BY 12Z TEMPS SHOULD HAVE FALLEN BACK TO THE UTEENS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS BEHIND THE CDFRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...SREF
AND GEFS OUTPUT SUGGEST SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA MAY CREEP ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE LATEST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A MONTH OF STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS WILL
BE RACING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH THE TEMP STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON A GUSTY WNW WIND. BY EVENING...TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW TO NEAR 20 IN
HARRISBURG. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RUNNING ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE
LAURELS AND NRN MOUNTAINS...AND BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ZERO
ELSEWHERE.
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE QPF...USING A BLEND OF
SREF/ECMWF/GFS AND HPC NUMBERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE INCREDIBLY DRY
AND GETTING LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GR LAKES.
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AROUND 1 INCH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY THE
LAURELS UP THROUGH THE NW MOUNTAINS. CONCERN IS THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SQUALLS AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z
WRF. FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT
ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR AND FLOW AROUND THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX...EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK. AIRFLOW OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE INROADS OUR WAY LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION...AS WELL AS A
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR STORMINESS BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT LEADING THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL AFFECT PA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK HAVING MOVED THROUGH RIGHT
BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD. THUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND DRY. COLD FROPA NEXT FRIDAY MAY STALL TO
THE SOUTH OF PA AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND AS SRN
STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PUSH EAST. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE RETURN
OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...WHICH COULD CERTAINLY BE INTERESTING
IN TERMS OF PCPN AS WE HEAD TOWARD GROUNDHOGS DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STEADY LIGHT SNOW CAME IN REAL FAST THIS AFT...FASTER THAN
WHAT I WOULD EXPECTED.
ANYWAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS RACING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. AS
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES ARE THE FIRST TO PLUNGE...DOWN TO AROUND A
MILE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FCST AREA.
STILL BELIEVE THE SERN TERMINALS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE BULK OF
THE WEATHER LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...REMAINING VFR INTO
MONDAY.
EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF SNOW
DEPARTS. BFD/JST MAY NOT SHARE IN THE IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE VIZ/CIGS IMPROVE WITH THE ENDING
OF THE SNOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IMPROVING TO VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE DRY ARCTIC AIR
BRINGS CLEARING SKIES EVEN THERE.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR WITH -SHSN WEST...MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE
NRN BLKHLS AND THE PLAINS JUST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS.
00Z KUNR SOUNDING IS SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE UP TO ABOUT
650MB SO HAVE ADDED SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FCST FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE OTHER FCST CHANGE WAS TO ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR FAR NWRN SD...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
WIND WITH THE FALLING TEMPS TO PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -30F IN
THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBS...AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BAND
OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO
SWRN SD. THIS BAND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET THAT WAS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SWRN CWA OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO LOW WITH MIN TEMPS
THERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING LATE TNGT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
WARRANTED GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES AS WELL AS PWAT NEAR 0.05
INCHES.
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON TUESDAY AS SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING ENSUES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NERN WY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL OF THE CWA. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA...ROUGHLY A 5-MB DIFFERENCE FROM KECS TO KSPF. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED...BUT MAY NEED TO DO SO EVEN MORE IN LATER
SHIFTS. IT ALSO WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH PARTS OF THE NERN
FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 20S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION FOR A BRIEF TIME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS POINT...UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR
SO...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW....THOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO LOOK TO BE LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 519 MST MON JAN 27 2014
SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN BLKHLS AREA DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR SDZ001-002-013-014.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
AT 9PM THE COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM NE UTAH SE INTO THE I70
CORRIDOR NEAR RIFLE THEN SOUTH DOWN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NW
COLORADO MTNS LOOK TO HAVE ACCUMULATED 5-10 INCHES. THE CENTRAL
MTNS FROM SUNLIGHT MTN TO ASPEN AND ON TO LEADVILLE HAVE SEEN A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THIS FRONTAL BAND THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM AND 03Z RAP SHOW A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
SNOWFALL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL FORCING SHIFTS TO THE SE
AND ONLY OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE ELKS AND NW SAN JUAN MTNS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT BETWEEN MONTROSE AND OURAY.
THE COLDEST 700MB/MTN TOP TEMPS OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. VALLEY
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS BUT GRADIENT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT MILDER. THEN WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. MTN TOP WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY WITH G35 POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER HIGH EXPOSED
TERRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO G50 NORTH/G30
SOUTH.
THE PROLONGED SNOW EVENT STARTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...BUT THE
LATEST MODELS ARE PRODUCING AROUND 2 FEET OF NEW SNOW OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
A FRONTAL BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE CO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVENING. MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE
TRANSFERRING EAST AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE. NORTHWESTERLY
OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND THE FLATTOP
WILDERNESS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER VAIL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC UPLIFT SHOULD ALL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUING TO HELP PRODUCE
SNOWFALL UNTIL THE MOISTURE DIMINISHED LATE AT NIGHT.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND WEST
COAST. TUE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A STRONG BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET ARRIVING TO THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD FETCH OF UPSTREAM
MOISTURE. DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THIS PLUME SUGGESTS PWATS ARE
RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT AND WE SHOULD SEE RAOBS PICK THIS UP IN THE
WEST WITH THE NEXT FEW BALLOON LAUNCHES. THE PACIFIC JET WILL BE
ARCING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING
THE MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODEL TIME SERIES AT GJT
ARE SHOWING PWATS HITTING 0.50 OF AN INCH OR +2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY...VERY WET. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FORCING ATTM
JUST DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO GET SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONE CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES WITH RESPECT TO MIXING OUT COLD AIR AND CLOUD COVER.
GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE GENERALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER SO HAVE MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS OR STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
AN AGGRESSIVE ARCTIC WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON THURSDAY. IN IT/S WAKE THE ARCTIC FLOW AND
PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE FORCED TO MERGE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES.
IN TURN THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER JET SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF WAVES OR VORTICITY THROUGH THE FLOW...MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MERGED FLOW...AND THE JET WILL COMBINE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER OUR CWA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SEEMS LIKELY. THE ONLY THING
LACKING IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TO BOOST CONFIDENCE ON SOME
FINER DETAILS. IN SOME CASES MODELS ARE ALMOST A STATE OFF.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOK
SET UP FOR A LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND HALF. FOR NOW HAVE PLACED A WINTER STORM
WATCH IN THESE AREAS AND HOPE FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. THERMAL PROFILES AND A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND WILL BE SETTING UP WILL HELP...BUT IT
APPEARS SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
SILT EASTWARD WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE THURSDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR MASS. AS THE JET SAGS SOUTHWARD
AND A GENERAL TROF SETS UP IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO COME THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
THE FRONTAL BAND IS VERY QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
MTN TOPS WILL REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
FROM RABBIT EARS SOUTH TO SLUMGULLION PASS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NWLY MTN TOP WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING COZ010-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 9000
FEET FOR COZ004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING COZ004-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF WINTER WX
EVENT. WATCHING REGIONAL RADAR AND SAT TRENDS...SO FAR APPEARS TO
MATCH 06Z HRRR AND 00Z HIRES WINDOW NMM/ARW RUNS BEST. LARGE AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN NRN LA SPREADING QUICKLY INTO MS. THESE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING TWO BANDS INTO THE STATE...ONE BAND
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP OVER NEARLY ALL OF NW GA AND ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE AND NARROW BAND SOUTH OF I-20 TOWARD AREAS JUST SOUTH OF ATL
AND FFC BY 16Z. THOUGH LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NW GA BAND ARE
LIGHT...UP TO 0.10 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 IN
THIS AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR IN LOWEST 150MB. NORTHERN BAND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 18Z WHILE SOUTHERN BAND EXPLODES IN COVERAGE OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85. THIS LARGE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLEARING FAR SE
COUNTIES BY 15Z WED.
PTYPE IN THE LARGE BAND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREV FCSTS. MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREDOMINATELY
SNOW NORTH OF THE FALL LINE /LA GRANGE TO WASHINGTON/...SNOW/SLEET
MIX THEN RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN 1/4TH OF CWA.
TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
OVER NW 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PTYPE. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD FROZEN AND FREEZING PTYPES /SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN/ OVER AREAS NORTH OF CSG-MCN-AGS LINE.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE OVER NW GA TO CATCH FIRST
BAND THIS MORNING...BUT STILL 0.5-1.0 INCH. IN MAIN BAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HAVE SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCLUDING ATL
METRO. GREATEST AMOUNT ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
THOMASTON TO LOUISVILLE. BUT SOUTH OF LUMPKIN TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE...ACCUM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCH MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON TOP. ALL THESE ACCUMULATION...
OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND...WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE
CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA.
FINAL NOTE...WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
AROUND RUSH HOUR AND SCHOOL RELEASE. THAT SAID...THESE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL THAT DRY AIR WILL DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS MORE THAN FCST.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAIN BAND COULD SET UP SOUTH OF ATL METRO
OR ONLY PRODUCES SNOW FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER LARGER POPULATION
AREAS...LIMITING ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS FCST...WE SIDED WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS WITH MODERN RADAR-BASED ASSIMILATION SUCH AS THE
HRRR...HIRES WINDOW RUNS AND LOCAL WRF MODEL. LARGER SCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z NAM WERE NOT TOO DIFFERENT.
THANKS FOR COORD SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SNELSON
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY BUT GETS HUNG UP BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL MAINLY
AMOUNT TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...MOST SO FOR N GA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE TN VALLEY LATE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. THE FRONT MOVES
MOSTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY GET HUNG
UP ACROSS S GA. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SUNDAY.
A WETTER EUROPEAN AND DRIER GFS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH THE PRECIP
FORECAST A CRAP SHOOT. ELECTED TO KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN TEMPERATURES MANY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER FRIDAY.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A TRANQUIL START TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A
PLETHORA OF AVIATION HAZARDS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD INITIALLY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR
DECK DEVELOPING BY 13Z AT MOST SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WINTRY WX POTENTIAL WITH TRENDS SEEMING TO BE FURTHER NORTH WITH
-SN SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS ALL ATL TERMINALS. START TIME A LITTLE
EARLIER AT AROUND 15Z TO 18Z WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z. THIS WILL APPLY FOR ATL...PDK...FTY...RYY...AND AHN. FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH A TRANSITION IN STORE
FROM -FZRAPL TO -SNPL AND FINALLY TO -SN AS SYSTEM EXITS AROUND
04Z. ALONG WITH ALL THIS WILL COME A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
CIGS AND VSBY DROPPING DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM SNOW PERIODS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINTER WEATHER TIMING AND INTENSITY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 34 20 38 18 / 90 90 10 0
ATLANTA 31 16 36 19 / 90 90 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 27 12 31 11 / 80 30 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 27 15 33 12 / 80 40 5 0
COLUMBUS 35 21 37 19 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 31 18 35 19 / 80 60 5 0
MACON 37 23 38 18 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 28 15 34 12 / 80 20 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 32 18 36 12 / 100 100 5 0
VIDALIA 41 26 36 23 / 100 100 60 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...
WILCOX.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DOOLY...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JONES...LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...
DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BARROW...CARROLL...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
GWINNETT...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...MADISON...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...WALTON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
328 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
Early this morning surface high pressure stretched across much of
the Northern and Central Plains, resulting in light or calm winds
across the area. A broad mid-level trough was in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S., with an embedded shortwave trough
pivoting southward over Kansas. Water vapor imagery showed low to
mid-level clouds across much of central and southern Kansas as a
result of this passing wave. This increased cloud cover resulted in
early morning temperatures ranging from the negative single digits
across far northeast Kansas to the single digits across north
central to east central Kansas. With little to no wind present, wind
chills fortunately are not much of an added concern to the already
cold temperatures. Several short-range models are highlighting the
potential for some very light precipitation to skim across north
central and central Kansas this morning as the shortwave trough
passes southeast of the area. Model soundings show a fairly shallow
layer of saturation developing by around sunrise and persisting
through mid to late morning before quickly drying out. This area of
saturation will coincide with some isentropic lift present in the
290K-300K layer, so it may be enough to result in the development of
some scattered flurries.
For today, will see decreasing cloud cover by this afternoon as the
shortwave trough progresses east of the area. With surface high
pressure centered over the region, winds will be light and variable
through the day with temperatures reaching into the 20s. The surface
high will shift south of the area tonight through the overnight
hours with surface winds expected to become light out of the south
by late tonight. As a result, we might approach our overnight low
temperatures closer to around midnight tonight with very little
change in the temperatures through the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Expect low temperatures to drop into the single digits to
low teens with wind chill values ranging from near 0 degrees to the
negative single digits.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
Northwest flow aloft on Wednesday will transition to a west to east
zonal flow across the Central Plains on Thursday. Increasing
pressure gradient across eastern Kansas is forecast ahead of a
deepening low pressure trough in the Western High Plains. South to
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with some gusts to around or above
30 mph are expected. Afternoon relative humidity will fall to
between 20 and 25 percent. The low humidity and gusty winds will
elevate the fire danger into the very high category for much of the
area Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the mid and upper 40s still look
on track.
A cold front will approach the northern border by Thursday morning
as a shortwave moves into central Nebraska. This shortwave trough
will move through rather quickly with subsidence Thursday afternoon.
Ascent along with frontogenetic forcing will be focused near the
Nebraska border in the morning and have kept a small chance of snow
for Thursday morning. Temperatures Wednesday night and into Thursday
look to be warmer than guidance. Lower boundary layer will remain
mixed ahead of the front with lows in the upper 20s expected
Wednesday night Highs in the 40s south of the front with upper 30s
near the Nebraska border.
A series of waves will move through the zonal flow from Thursday
through Monday. Thursday night with mid level frontogenetic boundary
across the CWA will bring a small chance of light snow after
midnight. Models show a stronger wave moving across the Northern and
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. Upper level ascent will move
over northern Kansas bringing another chance of some light snow to
the area with little accumulation expected.
Saturday and Sunday looking dry as as high pressure ridge moves into
the eastern Kansas Saturday then moves off to the east during the
day on Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly below normal in the 30s
for highs with teens and 20s for lows. Next chance of more snow
arrives early next week as a wave moves out of the southern Rockies
and across the Southern Plains. ECMWF more robust than the GFS and
will trend toward the ECMWF solution for next Monday. Snow amounts
will be light once again. Models are indicating that a stronger
system will approach the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Main concern is whether brief isentropic lift will be enough for
some light snow to develop across central KS by mid morning. Both
the NAM and RAP show some AC moving in as the lift occurs. At this
point think the snow is more likely to the southwest of MHK.
However can not rule out some flurry activity affecting MHK. Will
also need to watch out for MVFR CIGS. The RAP appears to be the
more aggressive with the lower CIGS. For now have continued with a
VFR forecast thinking the RAP is again overdoing the low RH, but
this will need to be monitored.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1101 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Current 20Z surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure across
the plains stretching from ND to NE. That ridge will continue to
build southward over the forecast area allowing the winds to become
relatively calm overnight and into tomorrow. Low temperatures in the
morning will range from -0s in far northeast KS to the low 0s
elsewhere with wind chill values ranging from -10 in far northeast
KS to around 0. A weak upper level disturbance will move southeast
out of the northern Rockies tomorrow morning. As that system
approaches central KS there may be enough lift and moisture to
produce flurries across the southwest portion of the forecast area.
Do not expect any accumulations at this time. Elsewhere will remain
quiet with mostly to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures tomorrow
will generally be in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
The upper level flow pattern across the western CONUS will flatten
out to nearly zonal Wednesday into Thursday. One compact short wave
trough will move along the US/Canada border Wednesday night with a
frontal boundary dropping south into KS for Thursday. Ahead of this
storm system, Wednesday will start out quite cool with surface high
pressure shifting slowly south, but south winds will increase quite
a bit during the day with warm advection into the region. Expect
elevated fire danger on Wednesday as Min RH values are currently
forecast near 20% and wind gusts will probably top 30 mph. The
strong winds will likely continue into the overnight hours as well.
Temperatures are expected to cool a bit behind the front on
Thursday, but as the boundary stalls, mid level frontogenesis is
expected to work in conjunction with one or two weak pieces of short
wave energy to produce enough lift to support light precipitation in
an E/W oriented band near the Nebraska border. Any precip developing
in the mid levels will have to overcome quite a bit of dry air, but
there seems to be potential for the lift to have a long residence
time over a localized area which would suggest potential for
saturation and light snow at the surface. Right now, it seems that
any accumulation would be minor and limited to northern KS.
Model guidance suggests another fairly strong upper level system
dropping south out of Canada by late Friday into Saturday. Not
particularly confident in the details of this system, but as the
main upper level ascent skirts the local area, see at least some
potential for light snow showers. Again, this looks like a minimal
accumulation event. Expect the airmass behind the Saturday trough to
be quite dry with near to slightly below normal temperatures.
The weather begins to get rather interesting by the very end of the
forecast period, late Monday into Tuesday of next week. All guidance
is consistent in suggesting that a strong storm system will dive
into the southwestern CONUS by Sunday night. Being so far out, model
run-to-run consistency has been low, but the potential storm track
would be consistent with bringing a healthy fetch of moisture into
the area with a prolonged period of isentropic ascent in advance of
the system followed up by ascent associated more directly with
the upper low itself. Temperatures should be plenty cold for snow in
a broad sector of this storm system. Will need to monitor the Monday
through Wednesday period closely in coming forecasts for winter
weather potential.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
Main concern is whether brief isentropic lift will be enough for
some light snow to develop across central KS by mid morning. Both
the NAM and RAP show some AC moving in as the lift occurs. At this
point think the snow is more likely to the southwest of MHK.
However can not rule out some flurry activity affecting MHK. Will
also need to watch out for MVFR CIGS. The RAP appears to be the
more aggressive with the lower CIGS. For now have continued with a
VFR forecast thinking the RAP is again overdoing the low RH, but
this will need to be monitored.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF EXPANSIVE POLAR
VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. CORE OF THE
COLDEST ARCTIC AIR MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. WITH BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
NOW EAST OF THE CWA...LES BANDS ON RADAR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE SPACED APART DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
ERN SHORELINE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS CONTINUE IN THE -23 TO -30F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS TO FALL TO THE -30F TO -35F RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...FOCUSING LES
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION COULD
ENHANCED LES TONIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS WHERE LES ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EAST AND INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF A DGZ.
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHERE LES IS OCCURRING.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BECAUSE A STEADY WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED MORE OVER THE AREA
INSTEAD OF OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN
THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT WON`T BE THE CASE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
ALONG THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF AREA AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK WEST OR WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES
OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE AREAS BY EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY PUSH
LES INTO MAINLY KEWEENAW COUNTY OVER THE NW BY TUE AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TODAY AT CMX...FAVORED BY WRLY WINDS. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VLIFR RANGE WITH OCNL PERIODS BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT IWD AND SAW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
CIGS BACK TO NEAR MVFR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AT SAW/IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. MAINLY W GALES TO
35KTS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO
GALES OF 40KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE W ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD
OF S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY WEAKENS. A LOW
OVER MANITOBA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE E TO JAMES BAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE FROM ALBERTA INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING A WEAK RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A LOW OVER NE QUEBEC WILL BRING
SEVERAL TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009-010.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-
264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1214 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EDGE OF EXPANSIVE POLAR
VORTEX CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. CORE OF THE
COLDEST ARCTIC AIR MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. WITH BEST FORCING ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE
NOW EAST OF THE CWA...LES BANDS ON RADAR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE SPACED APART DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
ERN SHORELINE PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS CONTINUE IN THE -23 TO -30F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIND
CHILLS TO FALL TO THE -30F TO -35F RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING...FOCUSING LES
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE ERN SHORE FROM
AROUND GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE INTO NW UPPER MI DUE TO LAND BREEZE ACTION COULD
ENHANCED LES TONIGHT OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS/SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE AREAS WHERE LES ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EAST AND INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. STILL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
DUE TO THE COLD COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF A DGZ.
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBY TO
NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WHERE LES IS OCCURRING.
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BECAUSE A STEADY WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED MORE OVER THE AREA
INSTEAD OF OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS WOULD PROBABLY PLUMMET TO -40F IN
THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...BUT THAT WON`T BE THE CASE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR E ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER
ALONG THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BORDER. WITH THE WIND...WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO -30 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF AREA AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL WARRANT CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FAR EAST CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK WEST OR WSW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LES
OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE AREAS BY EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY PUSH
LES INTO MAINLY KEWEENAW COUNTY OVER THE NW BY TUE AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THEN...THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT
OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL
THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SNOW BELTS TO
START TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. BUT AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 875MB TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
AROUND -24C...THE WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WESTERLY
WINDS WILL END UP LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE
LAKE EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH...A FAIRLY NICE BUT COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO) TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL SINK...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD/FORCING WITHIN THE DGZ...SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW
RATIOS TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE IF SNOW
OCCURS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A LIGHT DUSTING TO AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -17C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS FOR THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A
DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE
12Z GFS FAILS TO SHOW A LOW. WAS HOPING THAT EACH MODELS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD LEAD TO SOME SUPPORT IN EITHER
DIRECTION...BUT THEY ALL WERE AROUND 50/50 ON WHETHER A LOW WILL
OCCUR. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND BELTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH
TODAY AT CMX...FAVORED BY WRLY WINDS. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VLIFR RANGE WITH OCNL PERIODS BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT IWD AND SAW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
CIGS BACK TO NEAR MVFR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AT SAW/IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH AT LEAST
WED MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS REMAIN. NW GALES TO
40 KTS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW GALES TO 35 KT
WED NIGHT WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THU INTO FRI MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001>005-009>014-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248-264-
265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263-
264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
...A NEW AND COLDER PATTERN IS NOW ESTABLISHED WITH THE COLD
BEGINNING TO EASE TODAY AND A NICE JUMP TOMORROW BUT THEN IT/S
BACK TO MORE COLD...
ALOFT: A TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL DEPART TO THE E TODAY WITH NNW FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ABOUT 50M TODAY
AND ROUGHLY 100M TONIGHT.
SURFACE: EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES STRETCHED FROM MT-NE-IL. THIS HIGH
WAS SLOWLY SINKING S AND WILL SETTLE OVER TX AND THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
OVERALL...QUIET WX THRU TONIGHT.
NOW THRU SUNRISE: VARIABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK LOW
BETWEEN LBF-IML-MCK-LXN. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP A BURST
OF LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ OVER N-CNTRL KS AS THIS LOW DEPARTS WITH THE
UPPER TROF. THIS HAS MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS BEHIND IT...AND AT 08Z
LXN CAME IN WITH FLURRIES. USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z NAM
POPS TO TRACK THIS THRU THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
RADAR IS IN VCP-31 TO PICK UP THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.
THE RAP AND OTHER GUIDANCE TAKES THIS LOW ESE ACROSS FURNAS
COUNTY AND NRN KS TO SLN BY 16Z. EXPECT ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO BE
DONE BY THAT POINT.
TODAY: A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER HERE AND THERE S OF I-80 THRU
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO M/SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20
MPH. USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS /W/. HIGHS WILL BE 15F BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW /UNDER 10 MPH/.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST TEMP CURVES. DRY AIR AND CALM
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID TEMP DROP IN THE EVENING...BEFORE
LEVELING OFF AND POSSIBLY RISING A LITTLE. THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED... BUT IT IS ON THE TABLE. I DID FORCE THE CLIMO TEMP
CURVE DOWN FASTER IN THE EVENING HOURS. BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS
AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST WERE USED FOR LOWS /BC-RAWBLEND/.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE ON LOWS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
WINDS WILL OFFSET NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE OUTER
PERIODS. WEDNESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED/SHIFTS EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH. WARMER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. IN THE WARMER...DRIER AIRMASS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN UPPER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
TRICKY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS ORIENTED ACROSS OUR SE
ZONES...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND STEADY WINDS
BOTH AHEAD/BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE HELD LOWS IN THE 20S. SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON FRONTAL POSITION FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS/ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS RANGING
FM THE 20S IN OUR NE COUNTIES TO THE 40S IN THE SW.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WORKWEEK IN PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AS THE JET STREAM
SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS. CHANCES FOR
PCPN/SNOW INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...GENERALLY CENTERED
AROUND THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVES AND PLACEMENT OF A SNOW BAND WITH PCPN
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. THIS BEING
SAID...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD FM THE DESERT
SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE EXTENDED INIT WITH PCPN
CHCS RETURNING ON MONDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
ON WEDNESDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO
BELOIT KANSAS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND MILD IN THE AFTERNOON
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 18 TO 25
PERCENT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL MARGINAL FOR OBTAINING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE DURATION NEEDED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MID-LEVEL CIGS AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE JUST A FEW STRATOCU BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WNW AND AVERAGE 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE EVE: VFR SKC. CALM WINDS 00Z-03Z WILL BECOME SW LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THIS DEC-JAN COMBINED "COULD" BE AMONG THE TOP 10 DRIEST AT GRAND
ISLAND. THERE ARE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FCST ON THE 30TH AND 31ST
SO THIS IS NOT IN THE BAG YET. AS THINGS STAND NOW...
GRI PRECIP /LIQUID EQUIVALENT/ RANKING FOR DEC-JAN AS OF 12 AM...
1 0.12 1960-61
2 0.14 1996-97
3 0.20 1963-64
4 0.25 2013-14
5 0.27 1985-86
THE LAST MEANINGFUL PRECIP AT GRI WAS THE 0.90 OF RAIN BACK ON NOV
5TH. IF WE EXTEND THIS DRY SPELL BACK TO 11/6...THE RANKING IS AS
FOLLOWS...
1 0.32 2013-14
2 0.36 1938-39
3 0.45 1963-64
4 0.46 1980-81
5 0.47 1986-87
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
FIRE WX...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN A WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN
AREA OF BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-5K FEET AGL ALONG THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH
THE MEAN FLOW. STILL SHOWING OBS UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW WITH NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. USED THE LATEST RAP 925-850MB RH
DEPICTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BEST CAPTURE THE CURRENT AERIAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS. THUS INCREASED SKY COVER
NORTH AND EAST NOW - 18Z AND MENTIONED ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS MY
NORTHEAST WHERE/WHEN THE HR MODELS TRACK THESE CLOUDS.
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WAA IS OCCURRING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
DESPITE A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES...WILL
SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO POSITIVE READINGS ALL
LOCATIONS.
STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE EVENING MOVING TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG
OVERNIGHT. WAA RAMPS UP AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
THROUGH 12Z. A 10-15 MPH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE TONIGHT
BE SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK IMPULSES/COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS APPEARS REASONABLE EACH
IMPULSE COULD BRING SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
RATHER THAN BROADBRUSH 15-20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRUSHING OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHOW REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THIS WILL BE A BREEZY PERIOD WITH COLD THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES. FOCUSED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOME CRITICAL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST. DID NOT SEE ANY TARGETS OF
OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ALL TERMINALS.
AN AREA OF BKN-OVC 4-5K FT AGL CIGS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW
THROUGH 18Z. KMOT AND KJMS MAY SEE IN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT AVIATION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ009-017>020-031>035-040>046.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>005-
010>013-021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1012 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE
NRN BLKHLS AND THE PLAINS JUST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BLKHLS.
00Z KUNR SOUNDING IS SHOWING A FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE UP TO ABOUT
650MB SO HAVE ADDED SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FCST FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE OTHER FCST CHANGE WAS TO ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR FAR NWRN SD...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
WIND WITH THE FALLING TEMPS TO PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -30F IN
THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBS...AND WEBCAMS SHOW A BAND
OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ERN MT THROUGH NERN WY INTO
SWRN SD. THIS BAND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL
AS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET THAT WAS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SWRN CWA OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO LOW WITH MIN TEMPS
THERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING LATE TNGT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
WARRANTED GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES AS WELL AS PWAT NEAR 0.05
INCHES.
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON TUESDAY AS SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING ENSUES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NERN WY IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA WITH
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL OF THE CWA. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA...ROUGHLY A 5-MB DIFFERENCE FROM KECS TO KSPF. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED...BUT MAY NEED TO DO SO EVEN MORE IN LATER
SHIFTS. IT ALSO WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH PARTS OF THE NERN
FOOTHILLS STAYING IN THE 20S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION FOR A BRIEF TIME ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS POINT...UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR
SO...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW....THOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO LOOK TO BE LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST MON JAN 27 2014
MVFR CIGS IN -SN AROUND THE BLKHLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL
DISSPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ACRS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-013-
014.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXPANSIVE AND DEEP TROUGH
COVERING THE NATION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY COLD TROUGH WHICH HAS PLUNGED MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE DEEP FREEZE.
THIS COLD AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING SOUTH WITH TIME AND WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO PRODUCE A RARE AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. AS THE GUIDANCE STANDS NOW...THE FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME A
VERY CLOSE CALL FOR PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL
DISCUSS MORE ON THAT BELOW. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND WILL
QUICKLY PIVOT SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THE ISSUE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING IN RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN THEIR
EVOLUTION REGARDING A SHORTWAVE LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND JUST HOW QUICKLY...OR IF AT ALL...THIS ENERGY
WOULD BE PICKED UP BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PULLED/SHEARED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GOTTA GIVE THE NCEP MODEL SUITE CREDIT
ON THIS ONE AS THE GFS/NAM WERE CERTAINLY THE FIRST ONES TO SHOW THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE AND RAPID EJECTION EASTWARD OF THIS ENERGY. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION NOW GIVING SOME
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS OUR REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE PENINSULA
HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP...SOME OF IT VERY DENSE...AND
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS ARE
ALSO LEADING TO AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG. THIS SEA FOG MAY BE A BIT
MORE STUBBORN TODAY...AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...OVERALL NOT A BAD WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ONCE WE CAN GET RID OF THE MORNING FOG. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE SEA FOG IS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER AND MAY AT TIME
REMAIN AN ISSUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE
HEADING INTO THE NATURE COAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY...BUT FURTHER SOUTH...SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO AROUND 80 SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...RANGING TO THE 60S FOR LEVY COUNTY UNDER MORE
CLOUDS AND BETTER SHOWER CHANCES. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. THE LIFT WILL
BE SUPPLIED BY A COMBINATION OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACH...AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE RRQ OF A STRENGTHENING EASTERN U.S. JET...AND ALSO SOME WEAK
UPGLIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THAT WE ARE DEALING
WITH WHAT WE CALL AN ANAFRONT CONFIGURATION FOR THIS COLD FRONT.
USUALLY WHEN A FRONT COMES THROUGH WE SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND THEN THINGS CLEAR OUT BEHIND IT. THAT
CONFIGURATION IS CALLED KATAFRONT. WITH ANAFRONT...THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FALL IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SO...AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...OUR SKIES
WILL CLOUD OVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER...LIKE THE OTHER FRONTS...COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TOWARD CHIEFLAND TO AROUND 50
FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 60 FOR THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN NOT MOVE MUCH...OR EVEN MAY FALL AT TIMES DURING
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...A MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL...AND SHOWERY TYPE OF DAY
EXPECTED. MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO GET THE SHOWERS DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO HAVE ARRIVED BY AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...BUT RATHER THE "OFF AND ON"
VARIETY. HOWEVER...THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL BE FALLING INTO A
CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH ON
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE DRIER AIR WILL GIVE US A WET-BULB EFFECT WHERE
THE TEMPERATURES COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL EVAPORATION OF THE
RAINDROPS INTO THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THIS IS WHY ARE TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RISING AND VERY LIKELY MAY FALL DURING THE
DAY. NOT THE BEST DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. NOW...UP TOWARD
CHIEFLAND...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE WATCH ON THE UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS. AS OF NOW...ANY WET-BULB EFFECTS BRING THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE DOWN VERY CLOSE TO ALLOWING FOR SOME ICE-PELLETS
OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES. TOOK A VERY CLOSE
LOOK AT A LOT OF BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM NATIONAL AND LOCALLY RUN
MODELS...AND IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE (EVEN WITH THE BEST WET-BULB EFFECTS) AND
PREVENT ANY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...A SUB-FREEZING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE IS STILL POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO A FEW ICE PELLETS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYTIME ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS SOUNDING
FOR CROSS CITY DOES HAVE ABOUT A 1-2 KFT LAYER BELOW FREEZING JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE WEDNESDAY. SO...IT IS KIND OF A QUESTION OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS STILL ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT OVER BY THIS
TIME. IF A FEW ICE PELLETS DID OCCUR...THERE WOULD NOT BE ANY
IMPACT...BUT JUST MENTIONING FOR MORE OF A CURIOSITY FACTOR. FOR
NOW...THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ICE
PELLETS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THOUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME AROUND TO ONE SUPPORTING
A CONTINUED SHOWERY PATTERN. THE BACK EDGE WILL BE TRYING TO MAKE IT
INTO LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES...AND HENCE THE POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES IF THE SHOWERS CAN HOLD ON. FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWER CHANCES
ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. IT WILL COLD AND RAW OUTSIDE...BUT
THERE IS NO CHANCE AS IT STANDS NOW TO SEE ANY ICE PELLETS...JUST A
COLD RAIN. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH...ONCE THE PRECIP IS GONE FOR
LEVY COUNTY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT FREEZE...AND PROB
LOOKING AT SOME CHILLY WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 30S AT LEAST AS FAR
SOUTH AS HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES.
THURSDAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT TO OUR EAST
DURING THE DAY. WILL SHOW BEST SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE MORNING TO
THE SOUTH OF I-4...AND BEGIN A CLEARING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREAS. THE TREND WITH THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS BEEN A SLOWER
CLEARING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOUTHERN ZONES HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY
WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT WENT WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND GIVING US LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL...AND
UPPER 50S NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE REGION INTO SAT. THEN FLOW BEGINS TO BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
THEN CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
U.S. MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE RIDGING BACK TO THE WEST WITH
IT/S AXIS SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST SUN AS A FRONT SAGS IN OVER THE GULF COAST
AND SE U.S. THEN ON MON...THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE STATE AND
WEAKENS IT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE ROBUST FRONT OVER OR JUST
NORTH OF FL.
THE FORECAST BEGINS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO AROUND
NORMAL WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. DURING THE WEEKEND WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL AND PROVIDING INCREASING MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR/LCL LIFR IN DENSE BR/FG WITH VERY LOW STRATUS UNTIL
14-16Z. AFTER THAT VFR UNTIL 00Z WHEN MVFR CIGS MOVE IN...WITH VCSH
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LIMITED BR FOR THE SOUTHERN ONES. CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING THEN SW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND QUICKLY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD
OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER UNLIKE MOST COLD FRONTS...THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST FRONTAL WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CLOUDY...COOL...AND SHOWERY DAY WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND
RESULTING LDSI VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN EXPAND INLAND
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND THEN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 51 56 41 / 10 40 70 60
FMY 79 63 66 52 / 10 10 50 60
GIF 78 52 58 41 / 10 30 70 60
SRQ 73 56 61 47 / 10 30 60 60
BKV 74 46 53 39 / 20 50 70 60
SPG 72 51 58 45 / 10 40 70 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE MAINLY FOR PTYPES AND TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE
PTYPE...SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF WINTER WX
EVENT. WATCHING REGIONAL RADAR AND SAT TRENDS...SO FAR APPEARS TO
MATCH 06Z HRRR AND 00Z HIRES WINDOW NMM/ARW RUNS BEST. LARGE AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN NRN LA SPREADING QUICKLY INTO MS. THESE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING TWO BANDS INTO THE STATE...ONE BAND
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP OVER NEARLY ALL OF NW GA AND ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE AND NARROW BAND SOUTH OF I-20 TOWARD AREAS JUST SOUTH OF ATL
AND FFC BY 16Z. THOUGH LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NW GA BAND ARE
LIGHT...UP TO 0.10 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 IN
THIS AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR IN LOWEST 150MB. NORTHERN BAND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 18Z WHILE SOUTHERN BAND EXPLODES IN COVERAGE OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85. THIS LARGE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLEARING FAR SE
COUNTIES BY 15Z WED.
PTYPE IN THE LARGE BAND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREV FCSTS. MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREDOMINATELY
SNOW NORTH OF THE FALL LINE /LA GRANGE TO WASHINGTON/...SNOW/SLEET
MIX THEN RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN 1/4TH OF CWA.
TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
OVER NW 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PTYPE. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD FROZEN AND FREEZING PTYPES /SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN/ OVER AREAS NORTH OF CSG-MCN-AGS LINE.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE OVER NW GA TO CATCH FIRST
BAND THIS MORNING...BUT STILL 0.5-1.0 INCH. IN MAIN BAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HAVE SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCLUDING ATL
METRO. GREATEST AMOUNT ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
THOMASTON TO LOUISVILLE. BUT SOUTH OF LUMPKIN TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE...ACCUM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCH MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON TOP. ALL THESE ACCUMULATION...
OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND...WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE
CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA.
FINAL NOTE...WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
AROUND RUSH HOUR AND SCHOOL RELEASE. THAT SAID...THESE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL THAT DRY AIR WILL DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS MORE THAN FCST.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAIN BAND COULD SET UP SOUTH OF ATL METRO
OR ONLY PRODUCES SNOW FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER LARGER POPULATION
AREAS...LIMITING ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS FCST...WE SIDED WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS WITH MODERN RADAR-BASED ASSIMILATION SUCH AS THE
HRRR...HIRES WINDOW RUNS AND LOCAL WRF MODEL. LARGER SCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z NAM WERE NOT TOO DIFFERENT.
THANKS FOR COORD SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY BUT GETS HUNG UP BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL MAINLY
AMOUNT TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...MOST SO FOR N GA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE TN VALLEY LATE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. THE FRONT MOVES
MOSTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY GET HUNG
UP ACROSS S GA. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SUNDAY.
A WETTER EUROPEAN AND DRIER GFS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH THE PRECIP
FORECAST A CRAP SHOOT. ELECTED TO KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN TEMPERATURES MANY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER FRIDAY.
BDL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A TRANQUIL START TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A
PLETHORA OF AVIATION HAZARDS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD INITIALLY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR
DECK DEVELOPING BY 15Z AT MOST SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WINTRY WX POTENTIAL WITH TRENDS SEEMING TO BE FURTHER NORTH WITH
-SN SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS ALL ATL TERMINALS. ALSO SEEING WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT WHICH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW MORE SLEET TO MIX
IN...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET. START TIME A LITTLE EARLIER AT
AROUND 15Z TO 18Z WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS
WILL APPLY FOR ATL...PDK...FTY...RYY...AND AHN. FOR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH A TRANSITION IN STORE FROM -FZRAPL
TO -SNPL AND FINALLY TO -SN AS SYSTEM EXITS AROUND 04Z. ALONG WITH
ALL THIS WILL COME A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AND VSBY
DROPPING DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM SNOW PERIODS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINTER WEATHER TIMING AND INTENSITY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 34 20 38 18 / 90 90 10 0
ATLANTA 31 16 36 19 / 90 80 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 27 12 31 11 / 80 40 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 27 15 33 12 / 80 40 5 0
COLUMBUS 35 21 37 19 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 31 18 35 19 / 80 60 5 0
MACON 37 23 38 18 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 28 15 34 12 / 80 30 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 32 18 36 12 / 100 100 5 0
VIDALIA 43 26 36 23 / 100 100 60 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...WILCOX.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WEBSTER...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF WINTER WX
EVENT. WATCHING REGIONAL RADAR AND SAT TRENDS...SO FAR APPEARS TO
MATCH 06Z HRRR AND 00Z HIRES WINDOW NMM/ARW RUNS BEST. LARGE AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN NRN LA SPREADING QUICKLY INTO MS. THESE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING TWO BANDS INTO THE STATE...ONE BAND
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP OVER NEARLY ALL OF NW GA AND ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE AND NARROW BAND SOUTH OF I-20 TOWARD AREAS JUST SOUTH OF ATL
AND FFC BY 16Z. THOUGH LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NW GA BAND ARE
LIGHT...UP TO 0.10 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 IN
THIS AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR IN LOWEST 150MB. NORTHERN BAND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 18Z WHILE SOUTHERN BAND EXPLODES IN COVERAGE OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85. THIS LARGE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLEARING FAR SE
COUNTIES BY 15Z WED.
PTYPE IN THE LARGE BAND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREV FCSTS. MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREDOMINATELY
SNOW NORTH OF THE FALL LINE /LA GRANGE TO WASHINGTON/...SNOW/SLEET
MIX THEN RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN 1/4TH OF CWA.
TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
OVER NW 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PTYPE. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD FROZEN AND FREEZING PTYPES /SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN/ OVER AREAS NORTH OF CSG-MCN-AGS LINE.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE OVER NW GA TO CATCH FIRST
BAND THIS MORNING...BUT STILL 0.5-1.0 INCH. IN MAIN BAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HAVE SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCLUDING ATL
METRO. GREATEST AMOUNT ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
THOMASTON TO LOUISVILLE. BUT SOUTH OF LUMPKIN TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE...ACCUM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCH MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON TOP. ALL THESE ACCUMULATION...
OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND...WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE
CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA.
FINAL NOTE...WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
AROUND RUSH HOUR AND SCHOOL RELEASE. THAT SAID...THESE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL THAT DRY AIR WILL DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS MORE THAN FCST.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAIN BAND COULD SET UP SOUTH OF ATL METRO
OR ONLY PRODUCES SNOW FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER LARGER POPULATION
AREAS...LIMITING ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS FCST...WE SIDED WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS WITH MODERN RADAR-BASED ASSIMILATION SUCH AS THE
HRRR...HIRES WINDOW RUNS AND LOCAL WRF MODEL. LARGER SCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z NAM WERE NOT TOO DIFFERENT.
THANKS FOR COORD SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY BUT GETS HUNG UP BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL MAINLY
AMOUNT TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...MOST SO FOR N GA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE TN VALLEY LATE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. THE FRONT MOVES
MOSTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY GET HUNG
UP ACROSS S GA. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SUNDAY.
A WETTER EUROPEAN AND DRIER GFS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH THE PRECIP
FORECAST A CRAP SHOOT. ELECTED TO KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN TEMPERATURES MANY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER FRIDAY.
BDL
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A TRANQUIL START TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A
PLETHORA OF AVIATION HAZARDS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD INITIALLY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR
DECK DEVELOPING BY 15Z AT MOST SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WINTRY WX POTENTIAL WITH TRENDS SEEMING TO BE FURTHER NORTH WITH
-SN SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS ALL ATL TERMINALS. ALSO SEEING WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT WHICH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW MORE SLEET TO MIX
IN...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET. START TIME A LITTLE EARLIER AT
AROUND 15Z TO 18Z WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS
WILL APPLY FOR ATL...PDK...FTY...RYY...AND AHN. FOR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH A TRANSITION IN STORE FROM -FZRAPL
TO -SNPL AND FINALLY TO -SN AS SYSTEM EXITS AROUND 04Z. ALONG WITH
ALL THIS WILL COME A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AND VSBY
DROPPING DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM SNOW PERIODS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINTER WEATHER TIMING AND INTENSITY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 34 20 38 18 / 90 90 10 0
ATLANTA 31 16 36 19 / 90 90 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 27 12 31 11 / 80 30 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 27 15 33 12 / 80 40 5 0
COLUMBUS 35 21 37 19 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 31 18 35 19 / 80 60 5 0
MACON 37 23 38 18 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 28 15 34 12 / 80 20 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 32 18 36 12 / 100 100 5 0
VIDALIA 41 26 36 23 / 100 100 60 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...
WILCOX.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DOOLY...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JONES...LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARROW...CARROLL...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...GWINNETT...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...MADISON...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...WALTON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
905 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
DUAL POL RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NICELY DEPICT TRANSITION
LINE BETWEEN SLEET/SOME FREEZING RAIN AND AREA THAT IS PRIMARILY SNOW
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. THAT LINE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE RUNNING
FROM BUDE TO MAGEE TO MERIDIAN. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW
LARGEST...MAIN WAVE OF LIFT IS NOW IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
OUR SERVICE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY PIVOT THE STEADIER SNOW A BIT
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BEFORE BACK EDGE
BEGINS TO PULL INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. STILL THINKING AREAS
UP ALONG HIGHWAY 82 WILL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES WITH A
DUSTING IN A FEW SPOTS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS IS GOING TO PUSH STEADIER SNOW BACK ACROSS
THE JACKSON METRO AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO PULL
AWAY TO THE EAST...WHILE MERIDIAN WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF
STEADIER SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET EARLY ON. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...12Z HRRR
IMPLIES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS WELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...BUT
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IMPLY THIS TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER AS ONE GOES
TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 98 MUCH OF PRECIP
EVENT MAY END UP BEING PRIMARILY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW
CURRENT ACCUMULATIONS AND WARNING/ADVISORIES SEEM OK...BUT WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW AND/OR ICE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. RIGHT NOW...BEST GUESS ON
POTENTIAL "HOT SPOTS" FOR HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM
HARRISONBURG LA TO MENDENHALL TO QUITMAN...WHILE ICE WOULD OF COURSE
BE IN SOUTHEAST MS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 31 16 37 17 / 76 8 0 7
MERIDIAN 28 15 35 13 / 80 13 0 9
VICKSBURG 32 15 39 18 / 54 6 0 7
HATTIESBURG 31 17 36 16 / 95 21 0 7
NATCHEZ 31 15 40 19 / 82 8 0 8
GREENVILLE 29 14 38 18 / 20 4 0 5
GREENWOOD 29 11 36 16 / 23 4 0 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>039.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ054>066-
072>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MSZ043>053.
LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ024-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
023-025.
AR...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
537 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. HOURLY TEMP/
DWPT/WIND WERE REFRESHED WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.
FCST DWPTS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE REALITY...BUT THIS HAS BEEN
CORRECTED.
THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER HARLAN COUNTY AND HEADING ESE. SKIES HAVE
LARGELY CLEARED IN ITS WAKE. THE ONLY CLOUDS WE/VE NOTED ARE AT
BBW. THE SUN WILL HAVE TO MAKE IT OVER THE BATCH OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BEYOND THAT...LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH
THE EXTREME COLD OF YESTERDAY EASING A BIT.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
...A NEW AND COLDER PATTERN IS NOW ESTABLISHED WITH THE COLD
BEGINNING TO EASE TODAY AND A NICE JUMP TOMORROW BUT THEN IT/S
BACK TO MORE COLD...
ALOFT: A TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL DEPART TO THE E TODAY WITH NNW FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ABOUT 50M TODAY
AND ROUGHLY 100M TONIGHT.
SURFACE: EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES STRETCHED FROM MT-NE-IL. THIS HIGH
WAS SLOWLY SINKING S AND WILL SETTLE OVER TX AND THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
OVERALL...QUIET WX THRU TONIGHT.
NOW THRU SUNRISE: VARIABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK LOW
BETWEEN LBF-IML-MCK-LXN. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP A BURST
OF LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ OVER N-CNTRL KS AS THIS LOW DEPARTS WITH THE
UPPER TROF. THIS HAS MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS BEHIND IT...AND AT 08Z
LXN CAME IN WITH FLURRIES. USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z NAM
POPS TO TRACK THIS THRU THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
RADAR IS IN VCP-31 TO PICK UP THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.
THE RAP AND OTHER GUIDANCE TAKES THIS LOW ESE ACROSS FURNAS
COUNTY AND NRN KS TO SLN BY 16Z. EXPECT ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO BE
DONE BY THAT POINT.
TODAY: A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER HERE AND THERE S OF I-80 THRU
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO M/SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20
MPH. USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS /W/. HIGHS WILL BE 15F BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW /UNDER 10 MPH/.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST TEMP CURVES. DRY AIR AND CALM
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID TEMP DROP IN THE EVENING...BEFORE
LEVELING OFF AND POSSIBLY RISING A LITTLE. THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED... BUT IT IS ON THE TABLE. I DID FORCE THE CLIMO TEMP
CURVE DOWN FASTER IN THE EVENING HOURS. BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS
AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST WERE USED FOR LOWS /BC-RAWBLEND/.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE ON LOWS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
WINDS WILL OFFSET NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE OUTER
PERIODS. WEDNESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED/SHIFTS EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH. WARMER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. IN THE WARMER...DRIER AIRMASS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN UPPER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
TRICKY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS ORIENTED ACROSS OUR SE
ZONES...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND STEADY WINDS
BOTH AHEAD/BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE HELD LOWS IN THE 20S. SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON FRONTAL POSITION FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS/ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS RANGING
FM THE 20S IN OUR NE COUNTIES TO THE 40S IN THE SW.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK IN PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS. CHANCES FOR PCPN/SNOW
INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND THE
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE WAVES AND PLACEMENT OF A SNOW BAND WITH PCPN
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. THIS BEING
SAID...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD FM THE DESERT
SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE EXTENDED INIT WITH PCPN
CHCS RETURNING ON MONDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
TODAY: VFR. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING TO THE S. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW FAIR
WX STRATOCU TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL ORGANIZE FROM THE WNW AFTER 16Z AND AVERAGE 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z
AND BY 03Z SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
4-9 KTS...HIGHEST TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
ON WEDNESDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO
BELOIT KANSAS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND MILD IN THE AFTERNOON
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 18 TO 25
PERCENT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL MARGINAL FOR OBTAINING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE DURATION NEEDED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THIS DEC-JAN COMBINED "COULD" BE AMONG THE TOP 10 DRIEST AT GRAND
ISLAND. THERE ARE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FCST ON THE 30TH AND 31ST
SO THIS IS NOT IN THE BAG YET. AS THINGS STAND NOW...
GRI PRECIP /LIQUID EQUIVALENT/ RANKING FOR DEC-JAN AS OF 12 AM...
1 0.12 1960-61
2 0.14 1996-97
3 0.20 1963-64
4 0.25 2013-14
5 0.27 1985-86
THE LAST MEANINGFUL PRECIP AT GRI WAS THE 0.90 OF RAIN BACK ON NOV
5TH. IF WE EXTEND THIS DRY SPELL BACK TO 11/6...THE RANKING IS AS
FOLLOWS...
1 0.32 2013-14
2 0.36 1938-39
3 0.45 1963-64
4 0.46 1980-81
5 0.47 1986-87
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WX...FAY
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1001 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTHWEST TO 35 TO 40
BELOW NORTHEAST. SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...IF NOT SOONER. WILL ALSO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS AT THAT TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANT/NW ND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY STEADY STATE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. NWS
RADARS STILL NOT PICKING UP MUCH FOR PRECIP FROM THE CLOUDS. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAYS MORNING LOWS
NOT QUIT AS COLD AS FORECAST CURRENTLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
TRENDS. STILL HAVE 2 TO 3 HOURS POTENTIAL COOLING. WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE.JUST MADE SOME CLOUDS ADJUSTMENTS
NORTH FOR A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS BAND THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN A WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN
AREA OF BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-5K FEET AGL ALONG THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH
THE MEAN FLOW. STILL SHOWING OBS UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW WITH NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. USED THE LATEST RAP 925-850MB RH
DEPICTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BEST CAPTURE THE CURRENT AERIAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS. THUS INCREASED SKY COVER
NORTH AND EAST NOW - 18Z AND MENTIONED ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS MY
NORTHEAST WHERE/WHEN THE HR MODELS TRACK THESE CLOUDS.
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WAA IS OCCURRING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
DESPITE A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES...WILL
SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO POSITIVE READINGS ALL
LOCATIONS.
STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE EVENING MOVING TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG
OVERNIGHT. WAA RAMPS UP AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
THROUGH 12Z. A 10-15 MPH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE TONIGHT
BE SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK IMPULSES/COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS APPEARS REASONABLE EACH
IMPULSE COULD BRING SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
RATHER THAN BROADBRUSH 15-20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRUSHING OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHOW REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THIS WILL BE A BREEZY PERIOD WITH COLD THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES. FOCUSED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOME CRITICAL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST. DID NOT SEE ANY TARGETS OF
OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD ALL TERMINALS.
AN AREA OF BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 20Z.
IT APPEARS THIS AREA WILL MISS KMOT AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ009-017>020-031>035-040>046.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>005-
010>013-021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANT/NW ND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY STEADY STATE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. NWS
RADARS STILL NOT PICKING UP MUCH FOR PRECIP FROM THE CLOUDS. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAYS MORNING LOWS
NOT QUIT AS COLD AS FORECAST CURRENTLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
TRENDS. STILL HAVE 2 TO 3 HOURS POTENTIAL COOLING. WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE.JUST MADE SOME CLOUDS ADJUSTMENTS
NORTH FOR A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS BAND THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN A WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN
AREA OF BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-5K FEET AGL ALONG THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH
THE MEAN FLOW. STILL SHOWING OBS UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW WITH NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. USED THE LATEST RAP 925-850MB RH
DEPICTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BEST CAPTURE THE CURRENT AERIAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS. THUS INCREASED SKY COVER
NORTH AND EAST NOW - 18Z AND MENTIONED ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS MY
NORTHEAST WHERE/WHEN THE HR MODELS TRACK THESE CLOUDS.
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WAA IS OCCURRING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
DESPITE A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES...WILL
SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO POSITIVE READINGS ALL
LOCATIONS.
STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE EVENING MOVING TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG
OVERNIGHT. WAA RAMPS UP AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
THROUGH 12Z. A 10-15 MPH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE TONIGHT
BE SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK IMPULSES/COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS APPEARS REASONABLE EACH
IMPULSE COULD BRING SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
RATHER THAN BROADBRUSH 15-20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRUSHING OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHOW REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THIS WILL BE A BREEZY PERIOD WITH COLD THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES. FOCUSED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOME CRITICAL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST. DID NOT SEE ANY TARGETS OF
OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ALL TERMINALS. AN
AREA OF BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH
20Z. KMOT AND KJMS MAY SEE A BKN-OVC CIG AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL AND
IN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THROUGH 20Z...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
AVIATION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ009-017>020-031>035-040>046.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>005-
010>013-021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SNOW ACCUM REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
RECEIVED IN THE MTNS WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SWLY UPSLOPE
FLOW ARE ONGOING AND ENHANCING ANY LIFT FROM CHANNELED VORT EXITING
THE TROUGH. RATES ARE EVIDENTLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EAST TN...WHERE
DPVA AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE A BIT STRONGER ATTM. NEW 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SUGGEST THESE FEATURES ADVECT EAST THIS MRNG. THESE
MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING FGEN/OMEGA BAND ACRS THE
NRN UPSTATE/UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY THIS AFTN...SUGGESTING PRECIP MAY
RAMP UP A BIT FASTER THERE THAN ANTICIPATED. REVISED POPS TO REFLECT
THIS AND SHARPER EDGES TO THE PIEDMONT SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENT.
REVISED QPF BASED ON A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND NEW
NAM/RAP...WHICH REALLY ARE IN LINE WITH MOST OTHER QPF GUIDANCE THRU
EVENING IN TERMS OF TOTALS. NEW STORM TOTALS SUGGEST WARNING
CRITERIA WILL NOW BE MET IN YORK CO...THUS ADDED THEM TO THE
WARNING. THE SAME GUID BLEND SUPPORTS A LITTLE HIGHER TOTALS IN THE
SW NC MTNS WITH MORE PRECIP FALLING EARLY ON AS THE FORCING
TRANSLATES ACRS THERE. PREVIOUS MTN ZONES IN THE ADVISORY STILL FALL
IN ADVY RANGE...BUT NOW AVERAGE ACCUMS ACRS HAYWOOD/TRANSYLVANIA
MEET ADVY CRITERIA. THUS THEY WERE ADDED TO THE ADVY.
WIND CHILL ADVY ACRS THE NRN MTNS WILL STAND AS-IS WITH SEVERAL
NEARBY OBS SITES REPORTING WIND CHILLS IN 0 TO -5 RANGE...THESE
BEING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CHANNELED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE BASED OF
THE TROUGH EARLY TODAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...
WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY ONLY WEAK ORTHOGONAL
FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO ITS BASE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS LATE THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AN ALL SNOW
SCENARIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COASTAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...LEAVING JUST LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
SE BY DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...JUST A NOD IN THAT DIRECTION HAS BEEN
MADE...WARMING THE NC MOUNTAINS SLIGHTLY. IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLD...WIND CHILL COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE DECISION ON AN ADVISORY WILL LEFT UNTIL AFTER A
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE EXPIRES.
QPF WILL BE LIMITED THIS FAR NORTH OF THE BETTER LIFT NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN OUR FAR SE PIEDMONT
ZONES FROM ELBERT CO GA TO UNION CO NC. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE REST OF OUR FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND PORTIONS OF
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD IS TRANQUIL BY
COMPARISON...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY COLD. THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TO MOVE ALL THE PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THAT DEVELOPMENT. WE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A FEW
DEGREES SIMPLY BECAUSE PRECIP WILL NOT BE FALLING...BUT IT WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT...AS THERE WILL BE
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TEMPS. THE FLOW BECOMES
NEARLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A BIT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHO STILL 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PICKS UP AT 12Z ON FRIDAY WITH
THE BROAD UPPER TROF WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A RELATIVELY ZONAL
PATTERN OVER THE FCST AREA. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWFA ON SUN WITH A ZONAL PATTERN SETTING BACK UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
BEGIN INCREASING HEIGHTS AS THEY AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN.
AT THE SFC...THE WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW ON FRI STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH
AS WEAK LOW LVL SLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWFA. ANOTHER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY ON SAT AND
TRACK NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE LOWS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUN AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY EARLY MON. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECWMF SPINNING UP
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE FCST AREA ON MON AND TRACKING NE AND OFFSHORE
BY MON EVENING...WHILE THE GFS SPREADS DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CWFA BY EARLY MON AND MAINTAINS IT INTO TUES. FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...I RAMP POPS UP MORE SLOWLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY FRI EVENING
AND THEN SOLID CHANCE ON SAT AND SUN. I BRING POPS BACK UP TO SOLID
CHANCE BY DAY 7 ON TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER
LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR SW. TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S OVER THE SC UPSTATE. THEY
WILL LIKELY DIP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE FROPA ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AS FLURRIES AROUND
MIDDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE IN
MIDLEVELS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES MAXIMIZING MID AFTN AS SAID FORCING
PEAKS. GUIDANCE BRINGS MVFR TO IFR CIG RESTRICTION WITH -SN LATE
AFTN UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
2 INCHES. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NE TO
N BY EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE...SNOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MTNS WILL SPREAD TO FOOTHILL
SITES BY MIDDAY. PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. RESTRICTIONS
APPEAR MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE...WHEN MVFR
CIGS AFFECT ALL SITES BUT KAND. BY EARLY EVENING AN IFR CIG SETS UP
AT KAND. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR ABOUT THE SAME TIME...WITH
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE COASTAL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FORM NE TO N...WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
OUTLOOK...VFR UNDER COLD HIGH PRESSURE LASTING THROUGH THU. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN FRI-SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 94% HIGH 88% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 88% HIGH 98% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 90% HIGH 91% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 93% HIGH 97% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 86% HIGH 94% HIGH 92% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ029.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-506-508-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ051-
052-058-059-062>064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
SCZ001>008-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ009-
011>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
539 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.AVIATION...
A LOWER CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AND HAD ALREADY MOVED OVER KCDS WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AT
THE 8000 FOOT LAYER ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND LIKELY WILL SHRED AS IT EDGES SOUTH BUT MAY BE NEAR ENOUGH
KLBB FOR AT LEAST A FEW OR SCATTERED AT SOME POINT MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY IF A SLIGHTLY LOWER BASE NEAR
4000 OR 5000 FEET MAY DEVELOP OVER KCDS...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT
SEEMS MORE DIFFICULT OWING TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. YET...THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY THE RAP SO CERTAINLY
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...A SOLIDLY
DOWNWARD FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP WITH CLEAR SKIES WELL SUPPORTED.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TURNING TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD AND VERY DRY SURFACE RIDGE WAS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR THE LOWER END OF ADVISORY
LEVELS SHOULD TAPER AWAY AS THOSE SPEEDS DROP FURTHER ALTHOUGH
DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST OF
THE AREA ON THE CAP-ROCK...EVEN SOME AREAS JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY. SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH THE DRIEST AIR LIKELY TO EDGE SOUTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING...NOT THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR. A LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE SHOULD EDGE FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR NORTH AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...THOUGH EROSION WILL BE A FACTOR
AGAINST THAT EXTREMELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. AND THIS CLOUD
LAYER IS LIKELY TO DISSOLVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MOST
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING ALSO SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSOLVE AS
WELL LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUN MOST AREAS...HELD CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST VALUES. A LIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RAPID COOLING. LOWS MAY BE
REACHED BY OR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WESTERN COUNTIES AS SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO LINE WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST BREEZES THAT SHOULD MIX INTO SLIGHTLY LESS COLD AIR LATER
TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY AGAIN DIP CLOSE TO ZERO ON THE
CAP-ROCK WITH THIS COMBINATION. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
CHANGES IN THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE DRY AND WARM WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY RAMP UP ON
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. HOWEVER, A WEAK
WIND SHIFT WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. REGIONS WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL TAKE PLACE WOULD LIKELY
SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. AREAS NOT EXPERIENCING DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WOULD LIKELY SEE LOWER TEMPERATURES CREATING A SHARP GRADIENT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A
1028MB SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY LOW WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEST COAST RIDGE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TO START THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL BE ABLE TO NEAR THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THESE SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE VERY DRY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MAY FINALLY BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS AHEAD
OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE.
FIRE WEATHER...
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 30 13 55 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 30 10 52 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 10 51 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 32 11 52 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 32 11 51 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 32 12 52 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 32 11 52 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 33 13 48 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 33 10 48 30 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 13 48 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
527 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW 5 KT AROUND SUNSET. SKIES HAVE BRIEFLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
IN THE METROPLEX...BUT 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE INDICATES ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF CIGS IN THE 050-060 RANGE TODAY
SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
AN INTERESTING THING OF NOTE IS THE BAND OF SNOW WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE OKC AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT...BUT MODELS
OVERWHELMINGLY SHUT THE PRECIP OFF AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE RED
RIVER LATER. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/
BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ONGOING BATTLE
BETWEEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
INTO THIS DRY AIR. SO FAR MOST CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
HAD SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SLEET...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH SATURATION
HAS OCCURRED TO ALLOW FOR SOME MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THE SPECIAL 6Z SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M IN CLL
WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL. IT DEPICTED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER OF AIR
NEAR 800MB WITH A READING AT 6 DEG C. FURTHERMORE THE LEVELS BELOW
850MB WERE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. WHILE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW FREEZING... THERE WAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-850MB SUGGESTING LITTLE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THUS AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN REMOVING THE MENTION OF SNOW...AND THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SLEET. ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL ONLY REACH
ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS THAN IF THE PRECIP TYPE WERE
SLEET/SNOW AS WAS EXPECTED. THEREFORE WE HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 9 AM FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT ICING. BELIEVE
THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IN THIS AREA BY 6 OR 7 AM...AND
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MIDDAY...THE
CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR VIA
SUBLIMATION ANY ICY PATCHES THAT DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE REGION TODAY AND
PUSH MOST OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE
AT TREMENDOUS ODDS WITH REGARDS TO THIS MOISTURE TODAY. THE RUC IS
FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. IF THESE
CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN FORECAST...AND
LIKELY STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IN THE GRIDS HAVE TRIED TO
SHOW CLEARING THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WORDING GETS AVERAGED OUT TO A
MEANINGLESS PARTLY SUNNY TERM. ANY LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY SHOULD EVANESCE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SLIDE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...TEMPS WILL CRATER INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE. FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH
WINDS 20-25 MPH AND RH FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE A LOOK AT THIS
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE. WINDS RELAX ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY ALONG THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILD SWINGS FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...RUNNING THE GAMUT BETWEEN WARM AND DRY
TO SEVERE WEATHER TO WINTER STORM. OFTEN MODELS DISPLAY THEIR
WORST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. WHAT WE CAN SEE IN THE MODEL DATA IS THAT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW PACIFIC TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS.
IN A MACRO SENSE...THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO START OFF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COLD SPELL TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE COLD
AIR PERSIST WITH AN ARCTIC FETCH WHILE PACIFIC ENERGY PROVIDES THE
LIFT AND FETCHES GULF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY
FORECAST DOES SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
LOOKING AT COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. NORTH TEXAS WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF THIS SETUP...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY COULD START OFF INTERESTING WITH A FEW POTENTIAL WINTER
SYSTEMS WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE
ONE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR SHOWERS...AND
INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 19 45 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 39 14 47 30 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 35 14 42 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 34 12 45 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 35 12 44 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 36 20 45 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 37 15 45 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 39 17 46 31 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 38 18 48 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 35 13 49 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ158-
162-174-175.
&&
$$
30/92
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ONGOING BATTLE
BETWEEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
INTO THIS DRY AIR. SO FAR MOST CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
HAD SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SLEET...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH SATURATION
HAS OCCURRED TO ALLOW FOR SOME MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THE SPECIAL 6Z SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M IN CLL
WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL. IT DEPICTED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER OF AIR
NEAR 800MB WITH A READING AT 6 DEG C. FURTHERMORE THE LEVELS BELOW
850MB WERE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. WHILE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW FREEZING... THERE WAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-850MB SUGGESTING LITTLE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THUS AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN REMOVING THE MENTION OF SNOW...AND THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SLEET. ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL ONLY REACH
ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS THAN IF THE PRECIP TYPE WERE
SLEET/SNOW AS WAS EXPECTED. THEREFORE WE HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 9 AM FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT ICING. BELIEVE
THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IN THIS AREA BY 6 OR 7 AM...AND
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MIDDAY...THE
CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR VIA
SUBLIMATION ANY ICY PATCHES THAT DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE REGION TODAY AND
PUSH MOST OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE
AT TREMENDOUS ODDS WITH REGARDS TO THIS MOISTURE TODAY. THE RUC IS
FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. IF THESE
CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN FORECAST...AND
LIKELY STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IN THE GRIDS HAVE TRIED TO
SHOW CLEARING THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WORDING GETS AVERAGED OUT TO A
MEANINGLESS PARTLY SUNNY TERM. ANY LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY SHOULD EVANESCE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SLIDE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...TEMPS WILL CRATER INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE. FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH
WINDS 20-25 MPH AND RH FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE A LOOK AT THIS
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE. WINDS RELAX ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY ALONG THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILD SWINGS FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...RUNNING THE GAMUT BETWEEN WARM AND DRY
TO SEVERE WEATHER TO WINTER STORM. OFTEN MODELS DISPLAY THEIR
WORST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. WHAT WE CAN SEE IN THE MODEL DATA IS THAT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW PACIFIC TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS.
IN A MACRO SENSE...THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO START OFF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COLD SPELL TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE COLD
AIR PERSIST WITH AN ARCTIC FETCH WHILE PACIFIC ENERGY PROVIDES THE
LIFT AND FETCHES GULF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY
FORECAST DOES SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
LOOKING AT COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. NORTH TEXAS WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF THIS SETUP...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY COULD START OFF INTERESTING WITH A FEW POTENTIAL WINTER
SYSTEMS WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE
ONE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR SHOWERS...AND
INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 19 45 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 39 13 47 30 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 36 14 42 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 35 12 45 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 36 12 44 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 37 20 45 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 38 15 45 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 39 17 46 31 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 38 17 48 30 64 / 5 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 35 13 49 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ158-
162-174-175.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1016 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WINDS A BIT GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES AND ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS WIND PRONE AREAS. A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT CROW HILL EARLIER THIS MORNING. MOST GUSTS WERE IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. SOME BLOWING SNOW ALSO BEING REPORTED.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR KEEP THE GUSTS CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PARK COUNTY NEAR THE BASE OF THE MOSQUITO RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME DECREASE BY THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS ALONG FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO LOWER HIGHS ALONG
THE PLATTE RIVER IN WELD COUNTY AS TEMPERATURES THERE MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 20 DEGREES. WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES. LATEST RAP SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN
FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. WINDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
.AVIATION...OVERALL CURRENT TAFS LOOK ON TRACK WITH VFR PREVAILING.
CURRENT DRAINAGE WINDS TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP
AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS SHIFTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN BACK SOUTHWEST BY 21Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SHIFT
TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 20Z PER THE RAP. WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN KDEN OR KAPA TAF AT THIS TIME. DRAINAGE TO THEN BECOME
ENHANCED THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA
AND WESTERLY AT KBJC. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AT KBJC AFTER
06Z WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST AT
KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS
AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SOME FOG CONTINUED AROUND THE DENVER
AREA HOWEVER MOST OF IT WAS OVER THE ERN AND SRN SUBURBS BASED ON
GOES R IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS. I WOULD EXPECT THIS FOG TO QUICKLY
BURN OFF BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE FOR THIS AFTN WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH SOME SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BASED ON CURRENT DATA WILL KEEP AFTN
HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO HOWEVER AREA AROUND DENVER
READINGS COULD REACH THE LOWER 30S.
FOR TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE NRN MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN ZN 31. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS WELL IN THE HIGHER MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...MODELS KEEP A JET MAXIMUM OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST IT IS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
WESTERLY LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THE WHILE SPEEDS
ARE 110 TO 140 KNOTS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC ENERGY FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY...THEN UPWARD
MOTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE DOWNSLOPING WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE PROGGED FOR THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. FOR MOISTURE...WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT PRETTY DRY...BUT IT
INCREASES RAPIDLY AND SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS VERY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MOISTURE EVEN GETS INTO THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS HAVE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MID DAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL AND THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES LOOK TO RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. WITH THE MOISTURE...UPWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY...WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS AND THE JET AROUND
WILL GO WITH A WATCH RIGHT NOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO SOME MINOR POPS OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE SOME
7 TO 11 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. THURSDAY`S READINGS COOL BACK DOWN
ABOUT 4-7 C FROM WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MODELS HAVE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY LATE INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AIRPORT AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/2 MILE SINCE LATE LAST
EVENING. NONE OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS FOG BUT WOULD THINK
IT WOULD BURN OFF BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT WSW BUT EXPECT THEM TO
BECOME MORE SSE BY MID TO LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION...KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EST...DRY...BUT VERY COLD...CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN US...ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION...OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED...AND HAS BEEN MAINLY AFFECTING
AREAS CLOSE TO SHORELINE OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR ALL SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS THIS AFTN LOOK TO HOLD STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND WITH REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LIGHTER WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
ANY WIND CHILL ISSUES. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 20S.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
EXPECT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING OF THE
PERSISTENT MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND MORE
SEASONABLE LATE JAN AND EARLY FEB TEMPS. A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
TIMING...EVOLUTION...AND TRACK OF A WEEKEND SYSTEM DUE A QUASI-ZONAL
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH A CHC
OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE SFC CYCLONE WILL BE OVER CNTRL QUEBEC WITH THE
SFC PRESSURE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. SOME LAKE MOISTURE WILL BE UTILIZED...AND
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO.
CHC POPS WERE USED FOR THE WRN DACKS...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHC
POPS WERE EXPANDED FOR THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE REGION OF SRN VT...THE
NRN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MOST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY. THE COLD ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS ITS PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST WEEK TO 10 DAYS. H850
TEMPS FALL BACK TO -10C TO -15C OVER THE CWA. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A
WPC/MOSGUIDE BLEND WERE ACCEPTED WITH M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND LOWER TO M30S IN THE VALLEYS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FCST WHERE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE FCST AREA. A RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER NY AND
PA...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER BY 00Z/SUN TO EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/SUN. AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WOULD SET UP
BASED ON THE CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THE THERMAL PROFILES.
ALSO...THE QPF WOULD INDICATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
EVENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME RAIN COULD
MIX IN BRIEFLY THERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE HAND...AMPLIFIES THE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AND LIFTS THE
SFC WAVE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WOULD BE A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
SAT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...WITH THE SFC CYCLONE
MOVING ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS PLUMES THIS CYCLE FOR ALY
FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION WITH SNOW /A FEW SIGNIFICANT RAIN MEMBERS/.
OUR FORECAST REFLECTS A WPC/GFS SCENARIO AT THIS POINT WITH AT LEAST
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE S/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE U20S TO L30S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER TO
M30S FROM THE TRI CITIES SOUTH...WITH A FEW U30S POSSIBLE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY
DURING THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WITH THE FROPA
WILL BE IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND LOWER TO M20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RIDGE IN FROM THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TURNING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC AND YIELDING A MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY.
H850 TEMPS OF -10C TO -16C WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL YIELD
HIGHS CLOSE TO EARLY FEB NORMALS WITH 20S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS AND
U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEYS. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN...AND
LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
MONDAY...THE START OF THE WEEK BEGINS SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE WPC GUIDANCE. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS...AND PCPN LOOKS
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND STAY WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION FROM 00Z TO 12 WEDNESDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TAF SITES WILL
SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. CHANCE -SHSN/-SHRA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. VCSH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A VERY COLD AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE ON RIVERS AND LAKES TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
526 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM IS RAPIDLY RAMPING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST GA UP INTO THE SC UPSTATE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WAS MAINTAINING A WARM TONGUE IN ALL BUT OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS TROUGH HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS NOW THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SC
COAST. EXTENSIVE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WHICH IS PRODUCING
RAPID EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING MOST AREA TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE SUN GOING
DOWN AND THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING...TEMPS WILL DROP
TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY 7 PM IN SOUTHERN SC WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA AT FREEZING LATER THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MIXING WITH LIQUID RAIN SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. OUR 18Z
SOUNDING CONFIRMED WHAT THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE ABOVE A 2000 FT DEEP
SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. RUC13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM
TO BE DOING FAIRLY WELL AT TRACKING THE THERMAL PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE PROFILE WILL TRANSITION TO
A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SC AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...RAIN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIXING IN. THEN THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPES PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE BY LATE THIS EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS THE GA BEACHES.
THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A
POTENT UPPER VORT LIFTS NORTHEAST...COINCIDENT WITH A POTENT UPPER
JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. LATE THIS
EVENING THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES
COOL ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME
SLEET. THIS TREND WILL TREK STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DAYBREAK. FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA
ZONES WILL MAINLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET...WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...IT IS OF COURSE VERY CHALLENGING TO PIN
DOWN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION SINCE THE PRECIP WILL BE TRANSITIONING
CONSTANTLY. ALSO...SINCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE QPF MAY FALL
AS SLEET RATHER THAN SNOW...THIS DECREASES THE LIQUID TO SOLID
CONVERSION RATIO. OUR LATEST FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING 2-3 INCHES OF
SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SC...ALONG WITH THE GREATER ICE
ACCRETION UP TO HALF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE THE TOTALS WILL DIMINISH
AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND WEST...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL STILL OCCUR. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF WE WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA ICE OR SNOW/SLEET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA. HOWEVER TRAVEL
WILL CERTAINLY BE HAMPERED AND EVERYONE IN THE WARNING IS ADVISED
TO AVOID TRAVELING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE STILL EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH
THE 20S DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE 18Z NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...A BIT FARTHER BACK INTO
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SNOW WITH A LITTLE SLEET ALSO
POSSIBLE. ASSUMING WE HAVE SOME ICE ON THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING MUCH. WE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BREAK FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHILE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 34-35F DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING. MUCH OF THE ICE THAT REMAINS
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS WILL PROBABLY NOT MELT VERY MUCH ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE RESULTING LIGHT WINDS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...WILL SUPPORT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERING THE ALREADY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
THAT SUPPRESSED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSISTING
OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS.
WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AS A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO PUSH LOCALLY ONSHORE.
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE OFFSHORE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ANY PRECIPITATION
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINING
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE TRANSITIONING SURFACE PATTERN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE...YET STILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE 40 DEGREE
RANGE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STILL ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 20S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AND FLAT UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A WARMING
TREND...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HEIGHTS BUILD WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHILE REMAINING INITIALLY IN
LIQUID FORM UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING. HAVE DELAYED THE INTRODUCTION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
AT KCHS UNTIL 02Z AND KSAV UNTIL 03Z. WILL THEN INDICATE A
CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH SNOW AT KCHS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL POTENTIALLY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FARTHER SOUTH AT KSAV. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF
PRECIPITATION BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
COVERAGE/TIMING.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING MVFR
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER 02Z TO 03Z
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SYSTEM. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE NEARSHORE
AND 8 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE. A CONSTANT INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION WILL CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND/OR EVEN CHANGE OVER TO SOME
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST
AND SHOULD KEEP ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAR TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THERE WILL STILL BE A
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE ZONES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SHIFTS
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WINDS/SEAS WILL AGAIN
CLIMB TOWARD POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES THERE IS A RISK OF SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 29TH...
KCHS...41 SET IN 2000.
KCHL...36 SET IN 1897.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1897.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL/WMS
LONG TERM...33/WMS
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
437 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS INCREASING MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL HELP CAUSE FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW COOLING WILL OCCUR
AND WE STILL EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. POPS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW AND CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE SLEET EARLY ON AND THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW...WHILE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SHOULD
SEE MAINLY SNOW BUT SOME SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN AT TIMES THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL COOL FROM WEST TO EAST AND PRECIP TYPE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER INTENSITY...SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE IN AREAS WHERE THAT WARM NOSE IS
SHALLOW...AND THEN DURING WEAKER INTENSITY THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SLEET.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIP TYPE EVENT.
EXPECT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AS WELL) IN THE PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE AREA EXTENDING
FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND MIDLANDS...INCLUDING THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA
TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM CAMDEN TO SUMTER TO BISHOPVILLE TO MCBEE TO
CHERAW. HAVE ALSO ADDED DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS A GREATER
MENTION OF A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS INCLUDES
THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND
ORANGEBURG TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND
1/4 INCH ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST DUE TO PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE CAN HAVE
PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON PRECIP TYPE AND ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL REACH THE WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
WHICH IS AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW...OR AT LEAST 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION.
WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DRYING
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-OVER
SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR
ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER
AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE.
SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME BLACK ICE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
USED THE GFS LAMP AND RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THE TIMING.
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND MIXED PRECIPITATIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. USED
THE RAP FOR THE TIMING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN BEGINNING AROUND
10Z AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
401 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE
INLAND...AND THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR WILL BRING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS INCREASING MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL HELP CAUSE FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW COOLING WILL OCCUR
AND WE STILL EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. POPS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW AND CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE SLEET EARLY ON AND THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW...WHILE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SHOULD
SEE MAINLY SNOW BUT SOME SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN AT TIMES THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL COOL FROM WEST TO EAST AND PRECIP TYPE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER INTENSITY...SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE IN AREAS WHERE THAT WARM NOSE IS
SHALLOW...AND THEN DURING WEAKER INTENSITY THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SLEET.
MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA...AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 0.70-0.90 INCHES IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WHEN CONSIDERING
THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES...WE EXPECT LOWER
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AND EVENTUAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAN
OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN A SINGLE PRECIP TYPE EVENT.
EXPECT GENERALLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AS WELL) IN THE PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE AREA EXTENDING
FROM MCCORMICK TO SALUDA TO NEWBERRY TO FAIRFIELD...TO LANCASTER.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND MIDLANDS...INCLUDING THE AREA FROM AUGUSTA
TO AIKEN TO COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM CAMDEN TO SUMTER TO BISHOPVILLE TO CHERAW.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS INCLUDES
THE AREA EXTENDING FROM WAYNESBORO TO BARNWELL TO BAMBERG AND
ORANGEBURG TO MANNING. HERE...THE MOST LIKELY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES PLUS DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2
OF AN INCH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST DUE TO PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE CAN HAVE
PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON PRECIP TYPE AND ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL REACH THE WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
WHICH IS AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW...OR AT LEAST 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION.
WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DRYING
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE LEFT-OVER
SURFACE SNOW/ICE...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING AROUND FREEZING FOR
ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NORTHERLY WINDS...DRIER
AIR...AND SOME THINNING/CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO HELP TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE.
SOME SNOW/ICE WILL STILL REMAIN ON SURFACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME BLACK ICE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND THE REMNANT SNOW/ICE...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH READINGS BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS SHOWING INDICATING BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME...STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
USED THE GFS LAMP AND RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THE TIMING.
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND MIXED PRECIPITATIONS SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. USED
THE RAP FOR THE TIMING. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN BEGINNING AROUND
10Z AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A RETURN TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1118 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
ADDED NW GA TO THE ADVISORY. GETTING REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ON THE GROUND AROUND AN INCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE MAINLY FOR PTYPES AND TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE
PTYPE...SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF WINTER WX
EVENT. WATCHING REGIONAL RADAR AND SAT TRENDS...SO FAR APPEARS TO
MATCH 06Z HRRR AND 00Z HIRES WINDOW NMM/ARW RUNS BEST. LARGE AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN NRN LA SPREADING QUICKLY INTO MS. THESE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING TWO BANDS INTO THE STATE...ONE BAND
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP OVER NEARLY ALL OF NW GA AND ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE AND NARROW BAND SOUTH OF I-20 TOWARD AREAS JUST SOUTH OF ATL
AND FFC BY 16Z. THOUGH LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NW GA BAND ARE
LIGHT...UP TO 0.10 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 IN
THIS AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR IN LOWEST 150MB. NORTHERN BAND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 18Z WHILE SOUTHERN BAND EXPLODES IN COVERAGE OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85. THIS LARGE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLEARING FAR SE
COUNTIES BY 15Z WED.
PTYPE IN THE LARGE BAND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREV FCSTS. MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREDOMINATELY
SNOW NORTH OF THE FALL LINE /LA GRANGE TO WASHINGTON/...SNOW/SLEET
MIX THEN RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN 1/4TH OF CWA.
TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
OVER NW 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PTYPE. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD FROZEN AND FREEZING PTYPES /SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN/ OVER AREAS NORTH OF CSG-MCN-AGS LINE.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE OVER NW GA TO CATCH FIRST
BAND THIS MORNING...BUT STILL 0.5-1.0 INCH. IN MAIN BAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HAVE SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCLUDING ATL
METRO. GREATEST AMOUNT ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
THOMASTON TO LOUISVILLE. BUT SOUTH OF LUMPKIN TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE...ACCUM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCH MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON TOP. ALL THESE ACCUMULATION...
OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND...WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE
CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA.
FINAL NOTE...WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
AROUND RUSH HOUR AND SCHOOL RELEASE. THAT SAID...THESE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL THAT DRY AIR WILL DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS MORE THAN FCST.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAIN BAND COULD SET UP SOUTH OF ATL METRO
OR ONLY PRODUCES SNOW FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER LARGER POPULATION
AREAS...LIMITING ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS FCST...WE SIDED WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS WITH MODERN RADAR-BASED ASSIMILATION SUCH AS THE
HRRR...HIRES WINDOW RUNS AND LOCAL WRF MODEL. LARGER SCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z NAM WERE NOT TOO DIFFERENT.
THANKS FOR COORD SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY BUT GETS HUNG UP BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL MAINLY
AMOUNT TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...MOST SO FOR N GA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE TN VALLEY LATE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. THE FRONT MOVES
MOSTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY GET HUNG
UP ACROSS S GA. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SUNDAY.
A WETTER EUROPEAN AND DRIER GFS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH THE PRECIP
FORECAST A CRAP SHOOT. ELECTED TO KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN TEMPERATURES MANY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER FRIDAY.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
THE WINTRY MIX HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. ALL AREAS WILL BECOME IFR BY
MID AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY INTO THE STATE WITH
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH NORTHWEST IN
THE ATL/CSG AREAS. IN AHN/MCN...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH
NORTHWEST BY 00Z. AFTER 12Z WED ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINTER WEATHER TIMING AND INTENSITY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 34 20 38 18 / 90 90 10 0
ATLANTA 31 16 36 19 / 90 80 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 27 12 31 11 / 80 40 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 27 15 33 12 / 80 40 5 0
COLUMBUS 35 21 37 19 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 31 18 35 19 / 80 60 5 0
MACON 37 23 38 18 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 28 15 34 12 / 80 30 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 32 18 36 12 / 100 100 5 0
VIDALIA 43 26 36 23 / 100 100 60 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...HALL...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1118 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ADDED NW GA TO THE ADVISORY. GETTING REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ON THE GROUND AROUND AN INCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE MAINLY FOR PTYPES AND TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE
PTYPE...SO HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF WINTER WX
EVENT. WATCHING REGIONAL RADAR AND SAT TRENDS...SO FAR APPEARS TO
MATCH 06Z HRRR AND 00Z HIRES WINDOW NMM/ARW RUNS BEST. LARGE AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN NRN LA SPREADING QUICKLY INTO MS. THESE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING TWO BANDS INTO THE STATE...ONE BAND
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP OVER NEARLY ALL OF NW GA AND ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE AND NARROW BAND SOUTH OF I-20 TOWARD AREAS JUST SOUTH OF ATL
AND FFC BY 16Z. THOUGH LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS IN NW GA BAND ARE
LIGHT...UP TO 0.10 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 IN
THIS AREA WITH VERY COLD AIR IN LOWEST 150MB. NORTHERN BAND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 18Z WHILE SOUTHERN BAND EXPLODES IN COVERAGE OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-85. THIS LARGE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLEARING FAR SE
COUNTIES BY 15Z WED.
PTYPE IN THE LARGE BAND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREV FCSTS. MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREDOMINATELY
SNOW NORTH OF THE FALL LINE /LA GRANGE TO WASHINGTON/...SNOW/SLEET
MIX THEN RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN 1/4TH OF CWA.
TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
OVER NW 1/2 OF CWA WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PTYPE. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD FROZEN AND FREEZING PTYPES /SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN/ OVER AREAS NORTH OF CSG-MCN-AGS LINE.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE OVER NW GA TO CATCH FIRST
BAND THIS MORNING...BUT STILL 0.5-1.0 INCH. IN MAIN BAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HAVE SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCLUDING ATL
METRO. GREATEST AMOUNT ALONG A BROAD LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
THOMASTON TO LOUISVILLE. BUT SOUTH OF LUMPKIN TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE...ACCUM WILL BE 0.1-0.3 INCH MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON TOP. ALL THESE ACCUMULATION...
OTHER THAN THE NW GA LIGHT BAND...WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA SO HAVE
CONTINUED WARNING AND EXPANDED THIS TO ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
INCLUDING ATL METRO AREA.
FINAL NOTE...WE REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT WITH ONSET OF PRECIP
AROUND RUSH HOUR AND SCHOOL RELEASE. THAT SAID...THESE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL THAT DRY AIR WILL DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS MORE THAN FCST.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL THAT MAIN BAND COULD SET UP SOUTH OF ATL METRO
OR ONLY PRODUCES SNOW FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS OVER LARGER POPULATION
AREAS...LIMITING ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS FCST...WE SIDED WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS WITH MODERN RADAR-BASED ASSIMILATION SUCH AS THE
HRRR...HIRES WINDOW RUNS AND LOCAL WRF MODEL. LARGER SCALE MODELS
SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z NAM WERE NOT TOO DIFFERENT.
THANKS FOR COORD SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY BUT GETS HUNG UP BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL MAINLY
AMOUNT TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...MOST SO FOR N GA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES A COLD FRONT TO THE TN VALLEY LATE WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...MOST SO FOR N AND W GA. THE FRONT MOVES
MOSTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY GET HUNG
UP ACROSS S GA. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS ON SUNDAY.
A WETTER EUROPEAN AND DRIER GFS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH THE PRECIP
FORECAST A CRAP SHOOT. ELECTED TO KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN TEMPERATURES MANY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER FRIDAY.
BDL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A TRANQUIL START TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A
PLETHORA OF AVIATION HAZARDS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SHOULD INITIALLY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR
DECK DEVELOPING BY 15Z AT MOST SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WINTRY WX POTENTIAL WITH TRENDS SEEMING TO BE FURTHER NORTH WITH
-SN SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS ALL ATL TERMINALS. ALSO SEEING WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT WHICH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW MORE SLEET TO MIX
IN...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET. START TIME A LITTLE EARLIER AT
AROUND 15Z TO 18Z WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS
WILL APPLY FOR ATL...PDK...FTY...RYY...AND AHN. FOR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH A TRANSITION IN STORE FROM -FZRAPL
TO -SNPL AND FINALLY TO -SN AS SYSTEM EXITS AROUND 04Z. ALONG WITH
ALL THIS WILL COME A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AND VSBY
DROPPING DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM SNOW PERIODS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINTER WEATHER TIMING AND INTENSITY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 34 20 38 18 / 90 90 10 0
ATLANTA 31 16 36 19 / 90 80 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 27 12 31 11 / 80 40 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 27 15 33 12 / 80 40 5 0
COLUMBUS 35 21 37 19 / 100 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 31 18 35 19 / 80 60 5 0
MACON 37 23 38 18 / 100 100 20 0
ROME 28 15 34 12 / 80 30 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 32 18 36 12 / 100 100 5 0
VIDALIA 43 26 36 23 / 100 100 60 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...
HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...HALL...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
308 PM CST
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ON OUR WINTER SEESAW TURN FROM COLD BACK TO
SNOW DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A
FITTING END TO ONE OF THE SNOWIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BROAD BUT WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OZARKS...OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND CORN BELT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
NOT OVERLY TIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME TONIGHT BUT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WIND.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED NICELY SOUTH OF THE SNOW
PACK WITH 12 ABOVE UP TO PONTIAC. DEW POINTS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. FOR THESE REASONS FEEL
THAT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS INITIALLY FORECAST
AND HAVE RISEN VALUES. FORECAST WIND CHILLS ARE MORE ON THE ORDER OF
15 TO 25 BELOW...WITH SOME PATCHY 25 TO 28 BELOW ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL. WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH CANCELLING SOME OF THE
ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN FORECAST VALUES AND CONSIDERING WE ARE COMING
OUT OF LOWER TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THE PAST 36 HOURS...LET
ALONE EARLIER THIS MONTH...IT LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL IN PLACES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG LOBE AROUND THE PRONOUNCED EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
ROTATE THROUGH QUEBEC WED NIGHT INTO THU STEERING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THU. IN ADVANCE OF THIS,..WED
SHOULD EXPERIENCE NICE MODERATION IN TEMPS THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND FULL SUNSHINE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL SEE STEADY
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY EVEN SLOWLY RISING WHICH IS COMMONLY THE
CASE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE COOL SEASON. SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE FORECAST MINS NEAR THE HIGHS ON WED. THE
FORCING FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT ITSELF LOOKS REALLY
WEEK...HOWEVER AS A WEST-TO-EAST JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE INTERACT WITH THE FRONT BY THU AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE INTO THE EVE.
COLUMN MOISTURE LOOKS MORE SUPPORTIVE IN THE NORTH FOR LIKELY POPS
AND THATS WHERE HAVE THEM CONFINED...AND TAPER QUICKLY TO SMALL
CHANCES BY THE SOUTH CWA. RIGHT NOW HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATING TO
AN INCH...MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER...NORTH OF I-88.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DRAPE
OUT ACROSS THE AREA FRI UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PROVIDE A BREAK-IN-THE-ACTION FOR A PERIOD. THE EC
AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF A PACIFIC WAVE TIGHTENING
THIS BAROCLINICITY AND BRINGING BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP. OVERALL
BOTH MODELS HAVE A GOOD UPPER JET SETUP TO DEVELOP FOCUSED WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...SO FEEL THAT
LIKELY POPS WERE NEEDED. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER
EC...BUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH CONTINUING SOME
HIGHER POPS ON SATURDAY...NAMELY IN EASTERN AREAS. MOISTURE VALUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT SHABBY WITH 3-4 G/KG ON LIFTING SURFACES.
COULD EASILY FORESEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH A BLEND OF THESE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING THE AREA IN ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MTF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
LARGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A 500MB TROUGH BECOMING SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS/ATLANTIC SEABOARD MON/TUE. BUT PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...SAT NGT
THROUGH MON LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH A BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC
FEATURE KEEPING DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MOISTURE
DOES APPEAR TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION MON...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
THIS IS A LOW CHANCE EVENT.
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR TUE/WED. 500MB
TROUGH AXIS IS POISED TO DIG INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EJECTING
A LOBE OF VORTICITY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
A DOWNSTREAM MID-LVL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ALLOWING
SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BE POISED TO STREAM NORTH.
CURRENT FORECASTS FROM ENSEMBLES IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
DIFFERENCES AND SOME CORRECTIONS WITH THE RECENT CYCLES...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH WITH THE
LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO UNDERGO CHANGES...THIS PATTERN IS NOW
SUGGESTIVE OF CLASSIC WINTER STORM SYSTEMS THAT LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE POISED FOR HIGHS ARND 20 POSSIBLY LOW 20S. IF
THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK DOES INDEED STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED...IT WILL
LIKELY DRIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME AND PLACE THE SWEET SPOT
SOMEWHERE CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TUE/WED NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* WEST WINDS BETWEEN 260-280 DEG AND SPEEDS HOVERING ARND 12-14KT
WITH GUSTS TO 18KT THRU 00Z...THEN STEADILY DIMINISHING TO ARND
10-12KT.
* WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY WED.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS VERY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND POINTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY LONGER. HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. BETTER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18KT TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER ONCE THE SUNSETS THESE GUSTS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH. EXPECT NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ARND 20KFT
AGL. THEN FOR WED IT APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22KT
MIDDAY/EARLY WED AFTN.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF GUSTS DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY...LIGHT ACCUMULATION PSBL. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
212 PM CST
A FEW LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH END OF THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION...I DO NOT PLAN ON A HEADLINE FOR THESE
WINDS. I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE NORTH HALF MAFOR.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE LAKE LATER WEDNESDAY
AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT COMBINES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERALL...THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO 40 KT...WITH 45 KT GALES
POSSIBLE...DURING THIS TIME. THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
GALE WARNING. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAKE BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE GALES AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AGAIN INTO FRIDAY.
I ADDED SOME FREEZING SPRAY TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DURING THE GALE EVENT. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL BE A
MAJOR FREEZING SPRAY EVENT AS AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
THURSDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
Plenty of challenges with this forecast package, as we trade the
recent bitterly cold conditions for a warmer, but active weather
pattern in the extended.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday
One more night of very cold weather is anticipated tonight, as
clear skies and light winds allow overnight lows to drop into the
single digits, with a few spots north of I-74 possibly dipping
below zero. As upper heights rise and winds become southwesterly,
a marked warming trend will get underway on Wednesday with high
temperatures reaching the middle to upper 20s. Even warmer weather
is expected on Thursday when readings climb above the freezing
mark into the middle to upper 30s across all of central and
southeast Illinois.
Models continue to handle the approach of the next cold front
quite well, with all solutions dropping the boundary through the
KILX CWA Thursday night. As has been advertised for several days,
a few snow-showers will accompany the front although most models
are not depicting much in the way of snow accumulation. Have
introduced POPs northwest of the Illinois River as early as
Thursday morning, with low chance POPs spreading further southeast
toward the I-70 corridor by evening. Given lack of deep moisture
and surface temps AOA freezing, am expecting little or no
accumulation during the day Thursday. Aside from the GFS, most
models show light precip fizzling out across the area Thursday
night. Will continue to carry just a slight chance POP with
negligible accumulation.
Things get a little more difficult on Friday, as model solutions
regarding position of frontal boundary begin to diverge. GFS
continues to push front further south into Kentucky while
ECMWF/GEM stall it further north across south-central Illinois.
Prefer the ECMWF/GEM consensus at this point, so will go dry
Friday morning followed by increasing POPs by afternoon. With low
pressure developing and riding along the front, an overrunning
precip event is expected late Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. With models in poor agreement concerning exact location
of baroclinic zone, thermal profiles are still very much in
question as well. Think warm layer aloft will be strong enough to
warrant at least a mention of mixed precip Friday night across the
S/SE CWA. Will carry a snow/sleet mix along and south of a
Champaign to Jacksonville line for now, but this will likely need
to be adjusted or freezing rain added if further north/warmer
solution pans out. Snow accumulations will generally be between 1
and 3 inches, with the lowest amounts across the far south where
mixed precip is most likely.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
First system pulls out Saturday afternoon, followed by cool/dry
weather for Sunday and Monday. After that, attention turns to
approaching southwest flow system early next week. Models are in
poor agreement with the track and timing of the system, with the
GFS being strongest and furthest north, while the ECMWF is weaker
and further south. GEM mirrors the ECMWF track, but is about 12
hours slower. Given so many discrepancies, its hard to pin down
precip types and amounts. At this point, will trend toward the
ECMWF/GEM, spreading snow into the area Monday night into Tuesday.
Will have to keep a close eye on thermal profiles, as even these
more southern models suggest mixed phase precip possible across the
S/SE CWA.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1127 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
Starting to see some stratocumulus developing around 2500 feet, as
hinted at by earlier model runs. Would not be surprised to see
some brief ceilings by mid afternoon, although the RAP model
suggests this would be more likely around KBMI-KDEC eastward, so
have removed the TEMPO MVFR ceilings further west. Westerly winds
continue to gradually become more southwest as high pressure sinks
southward. These will begin to pick up a bit more toward midday
Wednesday, as the pressure gradient starts to tighten ahead of the
next storm system to the northwest.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1133 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1130 AM CST
HAVE CONVERTED THE WIND CHILL WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL WED
MORNING TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES
OF -20 TO -25...WITH -25 TO -30 IN PARTS OF MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
IL.
A BITTERLY COLD MORNING WITH NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGIT AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH -19 AT OUR COOP
OBSERVER IN MARENGO OBSERVING THE COLDEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED AND SHOULD SEE THAT PERSIST
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET THAT MORE SO
ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB. WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA /-30/ ALREADY AND TEMPERATURES NOT FORECAST
TO DROP ANYWHERE NEAR AS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THEY DID LAST
NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WIND CHILLS MORE OF -20 TO -28...HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH THE ADVISORY.
ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO...WITH A
FEW DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING TEMPS. AT 11 AM IT WAS 3 IN PONTIAC...4
IN LACON...AND 7 IN PEORIA AND CHAMPAIGN ALREADY. THAT WARMTH
/ODD WE CALL THAT WARMTH NOW/ SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
335 AM CST
THE GOOD NEWS...THE DEEP FREEZE WILL DEPART BY WEDNESDAY.
THE BAD NEWS...ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE TIRED OF ALL OF THE SNOW THIS
SEASON...THE MILDER PATTERN WILL FEATURE MORE CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY...FOLLOWED
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS EVER PRESENT HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...FEATURING EVER PRESENT
TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING UP TO AND NORTH OF ALASKA.
BEGINNINGS OF PATTERN CHANGE IN THE WEST ARE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE
HOWEVER...AS JET STREAM INTO THE PAC NW IS FINALLY BREAKING THROUGH
THE WESTERN RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DESPITE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. ITS POSSIBLE THAT IN JAN 2009
COLD WAVE REFERENCED YESTERDAY...DEEPER SNOW COVER PRESENT PRIOR TO
THE EVENT ENABLED THE COLDER TEMPERATURES DESPITE SIMILAR THERMAL
PROFILES TO THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ORD WILL
COOL ENOUGH TO AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY AFTER REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. ROCKFORD`S RECORD WILL REMAIN SAFE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN LOCKED
NEAR HUDSON BAY...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
CHANGES AND ACTUALLY NO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. 850 MB TEMPS SAMPLED
AT -26 C AT ILX AND -24C AT DVN DID WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...BUT 850/925 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN LOW -20SC
TODAY. CONSIDERING MAX TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED...FELT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE CWA..."MILDEST" IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THERE IS
THE LEAST SNOW COVER AND COLDEST IN THE NORTH. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL START THE DAY NEAR -30 BUT THEN WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE WARNING
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT CWA WIDE. THEREFORE...WILL PASS ON
RECOMMENDATION TO DAY SHIFT CONVERT EXISTING WARNING AFTER 18Z TO
AN ADVISORY.
WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE ALOFT TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SOME. CONSIDERING LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED...RAISED MIN
T A FEW DEGREES. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN -20 TO -30 RANGE
NORTH OF KANKAKEE RIVER UNTIL WEDS MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST...BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WAA WILL ENABLE
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW MID 20S EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IL. DESPITE THE
BREEZE...THESE READINGS WILL FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE SSW WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PLUS PVA ASSOCIATED WITH
MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SHOULD COMBINE TO
RESULT IN A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY PIVOT IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MORNING TO MID DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FORCING PARAMETERS ARE BEST NORTH OF I-80 WHERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A 3 HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF GOOD COLOCATION OF OMEGA AND
SATURATION THROUGH DGZ. THEREFORE I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY RANGE
THERE AND IF SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT TODAY...POPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BE RAISED FURTHER. MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING
THE EVENING DUE TO SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE.
EXPECTED SNOW BAND SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...AND
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...RATIOS
SHOULD BE AVERAGE. LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF I-80 AND LESS THAN AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.
HOW MUCH THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BE BLOWN AROUND IS IN QUESTION...BUT
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ADD CONCERN FOR
FURTHER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAINED CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING FRIDAY...FOCUSED INTO SOUTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SLOWED SOME TO MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
EVOLVES NORTHEAST THROUGH OR NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
GFS KEPT PREVIOUS IDEA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THEN DID TREND TOWARD OTHER MODELS IN SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FAVORED LOW PRESSURE TRACK IS A DECENT ONE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE AREA. OF NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
STRENGTHENING WAA IN WSW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH COULD INTRODUCE PTYPE
ISSUES TO SOUTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING
AT SURFACE AND ALOFT ON ITS CURRENT RUN. WITH STILL SOME TIME FOR
CHANGES IN THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION GIVEN FAIRLY LARGE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO MIDDAY
SATURDAY...DIMINISHING DURING AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL
AWAY. ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET INTO GRIDS FOR SOUTH OF I-80 DUE TO
P-TYPE CONCERNS AND ZR MAY BECOME A ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW
AGGRESSIVE WARMING IS...THOUGH ANY AREAS THAT MIX SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM. THIS
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF INTEREST IN COMING DAYS AS POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR MORE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/WINTER
PRECIP. THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD THEN BE DRY.
AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A NEGATIVE PNA TYPIFIED BY A
WESTERN TROUGH AND SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE
BMD/BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AND
WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE LIES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO BACK SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A NEAR DUE WEST THIS
MORNING TO A WSW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. COLD AIR
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON 020-025...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FEW-SCT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
BMD/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY...LIGHT ACCUMULATION PSBL. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CST
TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS LIE OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WHILE BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS LEAVES LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT
WITH 30 KT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ONE OF THE LOWS
WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER HUDSON BAY TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
FURTHER AND MAY RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER
PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WILL NOT HOIST A GALE
WARNING THINKING IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL GALE WORDING IN THE MAFOR/GLF. ANOTHER LOW WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MIDWEEK WITH GALES APPEARING
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST LATE IN
THE WEEK AND SHOULD ALLOW A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
THURSDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1127 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 945 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
Double-digit low temperatures last night were limited to the
extreme northern CWA, which still has a snow cover. The remainder
of the forecast area stayed a few degrees warmer than first
thought, which combined with weakening winds, helped to limit wind
chills from getting out of hand. Have canceled the wind chill
headlines except along/north of I-74, where wind chills are still
around -15 or colder, including -21 at Bloomington. This area may
be able to be canceled as well soon, depending on what the 10 AM
observations show.
Otherwise, high pressure ridging eastward from the central Plains
will slip southward today, allowing winds to pick up a bit.
Temperatures expected to reach double digits in most of the CWA
except perhaps parts of the far northern CWA.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1127 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
Starting to see some stratocumulus developing around 2500 feet, as
hinted at by earlier model runs. Would not be surprised to see
some brief ceilings by mid afternoon, although the RAP model
suggests this would be more likely around KBMI-KDEC eastward, so
have removed the TEMPO MVFR ceilings further west. Westerly winds
continue to gradually become more southwest as high pressure sinks
southward. These will begin to pick up a bit more toward midday
Wednesday, as the pressure gradient starts to tighten ahead of the
next storm system to the northwest.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2014
Will continue the wind chill warning NE counties and wind chill
advisory SW counties this morning, though will likely be able to
cancel early and will be on lower end of the criteria (wind chill
warning 25F below zero, wind chill advisory 15F below zero). Lack
of snow pack expect far northern 3 counties of Knox, Stark and
Marshall keeping temps from getting as cold with zero to 6 below
zero north of I-70 and zero to 3F from I-70 south. Wind chills in
the single digits and teens below zero except 24F below zero at
Bloomington. NW winds less than 10 mph early this morning.
00Z models are in fair agreement next few days and using a blend.
Models and then diverge during the weekend into early next week
as we get into more of a SW upper level flow and stayed close to
AllBlend data. Bitter cold temperatures during mid week modify late
this weekend into early next week. Dry weather expected into early
Thursday, then rather unsettled weather pattern expected from
Thursday afternoon into next week.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night
1035 mb arctic high pressure over northern MO and ridging into
central IL early this morning was providing mostly clear skies and
lighter NW winds. More mid/high clouds over southern MO/IL and south.
High pressure drifts into mid MS river valley this evening while strong
upper level trof stays over the region. This could generate
scattered clouds today similar to yesterday along with cold highs
in the 7-15F range with coldest readings from I-74 NE. Wind chills
will modify during late morning and afternoon to above advisory
criteria and then fall back down tonight with wind chills near 15F
below zero edging back south toward I-74 later tonight into mid
morning Wed as surface temps slip to around zero or a bit colder
NE counties. A wind chill advisory may be needed again NE counties
during that time but for now will hold off as temps not looking as
cold as earlier thought due to lack of snow pack plus winds do not
pick up until later Wed morning/afternoon.
High pressure settles into the mid Atlantic states by Wed evening
and increasing SW breezes Wed afternoon into Thu to modify temps.
Highs Wed in the mid to upper 20s with areas SW of Springfield in
the lower 30s. Highs Thursday back to normal in the low to mid 30s.
Low pressure moving east across southern Canada pushes a cold
front SE through IL Thu evening. Have chance of light snow mainly
northern areas Thu afternoon and evening with a dusting to half
inch at best, perhaps up to 1 inch north of Peoria, and little or
no snow over SE IL, maybe just a chance of flurries.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Better chance of light snow from Friday, Friday night into Saturday
as southern stream system moves along frontal boundary to our SE
and spreads light snow chances into central IL with mixed precipitation
possible in southeast IL Fri afternoon and Friday night. Precipitation
to diminish from the west during Saturday and could see a few
inches of snow accumulations north of I-70. 1032 mb high pressure
builds into IL by dawn Sunday with dry weather returning Saturday
night and Sunday and likely staying dry into Sunday night. Temps
cool a bit during the weekend behind the late week weather system.
Highs Sat range from mid 20s north to mid to upper 30s southeast
of I-70. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 20s from I-72 north and
upper 20s and lower 30s south. Next best chance of precipitation
appears to be later Monday night into Tue as another southern
stream storm system ejects NE from the southern plains.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A
BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN
THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST
MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A
NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING
DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER
WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS
REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO
NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND
CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR
LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS.
AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE
ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA
AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF
WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST
HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER
INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL
IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD
APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS.
RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY
AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD
BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING
THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN
1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE
STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING
OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE
FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ).
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P.
AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN
ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW
END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND
SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN
THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z
ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND
TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT
IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE
SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.
BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
VERY COLD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT
INTENSITY OF -SHSN. WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT 1SM FOR
VSBY WITH A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHSN AND BLSN. WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE...WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND THIS
WILL BRING -SHSN/BLSN BACK TO KCMX THIS EVENING IF -SHSN DO IN FACT
END TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BLO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO
40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-
264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1200 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. HOURLY TEMP/
DWPT/WIND WERE REFRESHED WITH CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.
FCST DWPTS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE REALITY...BUT THIS HAS BEEN
CORRECTED.
THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER HARLAN COUNTY AND HEADING ESE. SKIES HAVE
LARGELY CLEARED IN ITS WAKE. THE ONLY CLOUDS WE/VE NOTED ARE AT
BBW. THE SUN WILL HAVE TO MAKE IT OVER THE BATCH OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. BEYOND THAT...LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH
THE EXTREME COLD OF YESTERDAY EASING A BIT.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
...A NEW AND COLDER PATTERN IS NOW ESTABLISHED WITH THE COLD
BEGINNING TO EASE TODAY AND A NICE JUMP TOMORROW BUT THEN IT/S
BACK TO MORE COLD...
ALOFT: A TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL DEPART TO THE E TODAY WITH NNW FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ABOUT 50M TODAY
AND ROUGHLY 100M TONIGHT.
SURFACE: EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES STRETCHED FROM MT-NE-IL. THIS HIGH
WAS SLOWLY SINKING S AND WILL SETTLE OVER TX AND THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
OVERALL...QUIET WX THRU TONIGHT.
NOW THRU SUNRISE: VARIABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK LOW
BETWEEN LBF-IML-MCK-LXN. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP A BURST
OF LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ OVER N-CNTRL KS AS THIS LOW DEPARTS WITH THE
UPPER TROF. THIS HAS MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS BEHIND IT...AND AT 08Z
LXN CAME IN WITH FLURRIES. USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z NAM
POPS TO TRACK THIS THRU THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
RADAR IS IN VCP-31 TO PICK UP THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.
THE RAP AND OTHER GUIDANCE TAKES THIS LOW ESE ACROSS FURNAS
COUNTY AND NRN KS TO SLN BY 16Z. EXPECT ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO BE
DONE BY THAT POINT.
TODAY: A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER HERE AND THERE S OF I-80 THRU
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO M/SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20
MPH. USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS /W/. HIGHS WILL BE 15F BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW /UNDER 10 MPH/.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST TEMP CURVES. DRY AIR AND CALM
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID TEMP DROP IN THE EVENING...BEFORE
LEVELING OFF AND POSSIBLY RISING A LITTLE. THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED... BUT IT IS ON THE TABLE. I DID FORCE THE CLIMO TEMP
CURVE DOWN FASTER IN THE EVENING HOURS. BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS
AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST WERE USED FOR LOWS /BC-RAWBLEND/.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE ON LOWS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
WINDS WILL OFFSET NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE OUTER
PERIODS. WEDNESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED/SHIFTS EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH. WARMER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. IN THE WARMER...DRIER AIRMASS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN UPPER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
TRICKY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS ORIENTED ACROSS OUR SE
ZONES...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND STEADY WINDS
BOTH AHEAD/BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE HELD LOWS IN THE 20S. SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON FRONTAL POSITION FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS/ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS RANGING
FM THE 20S IN OUR NE COUNTIES TO THE 40S IN THE SW.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK IN PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS. CHANCES FOR PCPN/SNOW
INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND THE
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE WAVES AND PLACEMENT OF A SNOW BAND WITH PCPN
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. THIS BEING
SAID...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD FM THE DESERT
SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE EXTENDED INIT WITH PCPN
CHCS RETURNING ON MONDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
...A NEW AND COLDER PATTERN IS NOW ESTABLISHED WITH THE COLD
BEGINNING TO EASE TODAY AND A NICE JUMP TOMORROW BUT THEN IT/S
BACK TO MORE COLD...
ALOFT: A TROF WAS MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL DEPART TO THE E TODAY WITH NNW FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC TONIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ABOUT 50M TODAY
AND ROUGHLY 100M TONIGHT.
SURFACE: EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES STRETCHED FROM MT-NE-IL. THIS HIGH
WAS SLOWLY SINKING S AND WILL SETTLE OVER TX AND THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT.
OVERALL...QUIET WX THRU TONIGHT.
NOW THRU SUNRISE: VARIABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK LOW
BETWEEN LBF-IML-MCK-LXN. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP A BURST
OF LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ OVER N-CNTRL KS AS THIS LOW DEPARTS WITH THE
UPPER TROF. THIS HAS MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS BEHIND IT...AND AT 08Z
LXN CAME IN WITH FLURRIES. USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z NAM
POPS TO TRACK THIS THRU THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
RADAR IS IN VCP-31 TO PICK UP THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY.
THE RAP AND OTHER GUIDANCE TAKES THIS LOW ESE ACROSS FURNAS
COUNTY AND NRN KS TO SLN BY 16Z. EXPECT ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY TO BE
DONE BY THAT POINT.
TODAY: A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER HERE AND THERE S OF I-80 THRU
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO M/SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20
MPH. USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS /W/. HIGHS WILL BE 15F BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SSW /UNDER 10 MPH/.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST TEMP CURVES. DRY AIR AND CALM
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID TEMP DROP IN THE EVENING...BEFORE
LEVELING OFF AND POSSIBLY RISING A LITTLE. THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED... BUT IT IS ON THE TABLE. I DID FORCE THE CLIMO TEMP
CURVE DOWN FASTER IN THE EVENING HOURS. BIAS CORRECTED 2M TEMPS
AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST WERE USED FOR LOWS /BC-RAWBLEND/.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE ON LOWS AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
WINDS WILL OFFSET NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE OUTER
PERIODS. WEDNESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED/SHIFTS EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH. WARMER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES DURING
THE AFTN AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. IN THE WARMER...DRIER AIRMASS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES.
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN UPPER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
TRICKY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS ORIENTED ACROSS OUR SE
ZONES...COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND STEADY WINDS
BOTH AHEAD/BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE HELD LOWS IN THE 20S. SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON FRONTAL POSITION FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH THE BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS/ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY HIGHS RANGING
FM THE 20S IN OUR NE COUNTIES TO THE 40S IN THE SW.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK IN PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CONUS. CHANCES FOR PCPN/SNOW
INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND THE
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE WAVES AND PLACEMENT OF A SNOW BAND WITH PCPN
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. THIS BEING
SAID...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AND THE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD FM THE DESERT
SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE EXTENDED INIT WITH PCPN
CHCS RETURNING ON MONDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING FROM A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND AND THEN INCREASING BREEZES DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
ON WEDNESDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO
BELOIT KANSAS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND MILD IN THE AFTERNOON
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 18 TO 25
PERCENT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL MARGINAL FOR OBTAINING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE DURATION NEEDED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THIS DEC-JAN COMBINED "COULD" BE AMONG THE TOP 10 DRIEST AT GRAND
ISLAND. THERE ARE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FCST ON THE 30TH AND 31ST
SO THIS IS NOT IN THE BAG YET. AS THINGS STAND NOW...
GRI PRECIP /LIQUID EQUIVALENT/ RANKING FOR DEC-JAN AS OF 12 AM...
1 0.12 1960-61
2 0.14 1996-97
3 0.20 1963-64
4 0.25 2013-14
5 0.27 1985-86
THE LAST MEANINGFUL PRECIP AT GRI WAS THE 0.90 OF RAIN BACK ON NOV
5TH. IF WE EXTEND THIS DRY SPELL BACK TO 11/6...THE RANKING IS AS
FOLLOWS...
1 0.32 2013-14
2 0.36 1938-39
3 0.45 1963-64
4 0.46 1980-81
5 0.47 1986-87
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EARLY AFTERNOON OTHER THAN TO LET THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 1 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTHWEST TO 35 TO 40
BELOW NORTHEAST. SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...IF NOT SOONER. WILL ALSO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS AT THAT TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANT/NW ND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY STEADY STATE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. NWS
RADARS STILL NOT PICKING UP MUCH FOR PRECIP FROM THE CLOUDS. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAYS MORNING LOWS
NOT QUIT AS COLD AS FORECAST CURRENTLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
TRENDS. STILL HAVE 2 TO 3 HOURS POTENTIAL COOLING. WIND CHILL
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE.JUST MADE SOME CLOUDS ADJUSTMENTS
NORTH FOR A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS BAND THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN A WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN
AREA OF BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-5K FEET AGL ALONG THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH
THE MEAN FLOW. STILL SHOWING OBS UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW WITH NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. USED THE LATEST RAP 925-850MB RH
DEPICTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BEST CAPTURE THE CURRENT AERIAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS. THUS INCREASED SKY COVER
NORTH AND EAST NOW - 18Z AND MENTIONED ISOLATED FLURRIES ACROSS MY
NORTHEAST WHERE/WHEN THE HR MODELS TRACK THESE CLOUDS.
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WAA IS OCCURRING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
DESPITE A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES...WILL
SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO POSITIVE READINGS ALL
LOCATIONS.
STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN IN THE EVENING MOVING TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG
OVERNIGHT. WAA RAMPS UP AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
THROUGH 12Z. A 10-15 MPH SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE TONIGHT
BE SEVERAL DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE
COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A
STEADY STREAM OF WEAK IMPULSES/COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS APPEARS REASONABLE EACH
IMPULSE COULD BRING SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
RATHER THAN BROADBRUSH 15-20 POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRUSHING OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHOW REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THIS WILL BE A BREEZY PERIOD WITH COLD THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES. FOCUSED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOME CRITICAL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST. DID NOT SEE ANY TARGETS OF
OPPORTUNITY TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE INTO MINOT AND WILLISTON AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/
AVIATION...
A LOWER CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE AND HAD ALREADY MOVED OVER KCDS WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AT
THE 8000 FOOT LAYER ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND LIKELY WILL SHRED AS IT EDGES SOUTH BUT MAY BE NEAR ENOUGH
KLBB FOR AT LEAST A FEW OR SCATTERED AT SOME POINT MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY IF A SLIGHTLY LOWER BASE NEAR
4000 OR 5000 FEET MAY DEVELOP OVER KCDS...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT
SEEMS MORE DIFFICULT OWING TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. YET...THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY THE RAP SO CERTAINLY
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...A SOLIDLY
DOWNWARD FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP WITH CLEAR SKIES WELL SUPPORTED.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TURNING TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD AND VERY DRY SURFACE RIDGE WAS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR THE LOWER END OF ADVISORY
LEVELS SHOULD TAPER AWAY AS THOSE SPEEDS DROP FURTHER ALTHOUGH
DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST OF
THE AREA ON THE CAP-ROCK...EVEN SOME AREAS JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY. SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH THE DRIEST AIR LIKELY TO EDGE SOUTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING...NOT THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR. A LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE SHOULD EDGE FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR NORTH AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...THOUGH EROSION WILL BE A FACTOR
AGAINST THAT EXTREMELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. AND THIS CLOUD
LAYER IS LIKELY TO DISSOLVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MOST
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING ALSO SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSOLVE AS
WELL LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN SPITE OF PLENTY OF SUN MOST AREAS...HELD CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST VALUES. A LIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW RAPID COOLING. LOWS MAY BE
REACHED BY OR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WESTERN COUNTIES AS SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO LINE WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST BREEZES THAT SHOULD MIX INTO SLIGHTLY LESS COLD AIR LATER
TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY AGAIN DIP CLOSE TO ZERO ON THE
CAP-ROCK WITH THIS COMBINATION. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
CHANGES IN THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE DRY AND WARM WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY RAMP UP ON
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. HOWEVER, A WEAK
WIND SHIFT WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. REGIONS WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL TAKE PLACE WOULD LIKELY
SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. AREAS NOT EXPERIENCING DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WOULD LIKELY SEE LOWER TEMPERATURES CREATING A SHARP GRADIENT ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A
1028MB SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY LOW WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.
THE UPPER LEVEL WEST COAST RIDGE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TO START THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL BE ABLE TO NEAR THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THESE SHORT
WAVES WILL BRING IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE VERY DRY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MAY FINALLY BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS AHEAD
OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE.
FIRE WEATHER...
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 30 13 55 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 30 10 52 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 10 51 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 32 11 52 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 32 11 51 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 32 12 52 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 32 11 52 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 33 13 48 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 33 10 48 30 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 13 48 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.AVIATION...
/18 TAFS/
NO CONCERNS WITH VFR THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALREADY ERODING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DFW AND POINTS
NORTHEAST.
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY EARLY
EVENING...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS RETURN FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BUT ICY ROADS REMAIN ACROSS BELL...MILAM...AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES
DUE TO EARLIER FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE
COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND THIS WILL HELP CLEAR THE ROADS OF
ANY ICE. HOWEVER...ANY RESIDUAL WATER THAT REMAINS ON THE ROADS
TONIGHT WILL REFREEZE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD DAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KEEPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND ADJUSTED SKY TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/
BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ONGOING BATTLE
BETWEEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
INTO THIS DRY AIR. SO FAR MOST CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
HAD SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SLEET...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH SATURATION
HAS OCCURRED TO ALLOW FOR SOME MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THE SPECIAL 6Z SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M IN CLL
WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL. IT DEPICTED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER OF AIR
NEAR 800MB WITH A READING AT 6 DEG C. FURTHERMORE THE LEVELS BELOW
850MB WERE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. WHILE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW FREEZING... THERE WAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-850MB SUGGESTING LITTLE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THUS AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN REMOVING THE MENTION OF SNOW...AND THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SLEET. ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL ONLY REACH
ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS THAN IF THE PRECIP TYPE WERE
SLEET/SNOW AS WAS EXPECTED. THEREFORE WE HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 9 AM FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT ICING. BELIEVE
THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IN THIS AREA BY 6 OR 7 AM...AND
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MIDDAY...THE
CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR VIA
SUBLIMATION ANY ICY PATCHES THAT DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE REGION TODAY AND
PUSH MOST OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE
AT TREMENDOUS ODDS WITH REGARDS TO THIS MOISTURE TODAY. THE RUC IS
FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. IF THESE
CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN FORECAST...AND
LIKELY STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IN THE GRIDS HAVE TRIED TO
SHOW CLEARING THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WORDING GETS AVERAGED OUT TO A
MEANINGLESS PARTLY SUNNY TERM. ANY LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY SHOULD EVANESCE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SLIDE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...TEMPS WILL CRATER INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE. FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH
WINDS 20-25 MPH AND RH FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE A LOOK AT THIS
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE. WINDS RELAX ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY ALONG THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILD SWINGS FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...RUNNING THE GAMUT BETWEEN WARM AND DRY
TO SEVERE WEATHER TO WINTER STORM. OFTEN MODELS DISPLAY THEIR
WORST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. WHAT WE CAN SEE IN THE MODEL DATA IS THAT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW PACIFIC TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS.
IN A MACRO SENSE...THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO START OFF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COLD SPELL TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE COLD
AIR PERSIST WITH AN ARCTIC FETCH WHILE PACIFIC ENERGY PROVIDES THE
LIFT AND FETCHES GULF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY
FORECAST DOES SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
LOOKING AT COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. NORTH TEXAS WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF THIS SETUP...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY COULD START OFF INTERESTING WITH A FEW POTENTIAL WINTER
SYSTEMS WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE
ONE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR SHOWERS...AND
INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 19 45 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 37 14 47 30 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 32 14 42 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 33 12 45 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 33 12 44 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 35 20 45 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 37 15 45 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 38 17 46 31 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 37 18 48 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 34 13 49 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1034 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
.UPDATE...
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BUT ICY ROADS REMAIN ACROSS BELL...MILAM...AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES
DUE TO EARLIER FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE
COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND THIS WILL HELP CLEAR THE ROADS OF
ANY ICE. HOWEVER...ANY RESIDUAL WATER THAT REMAINS ON THE ROADS
TONIGHT WILL REFREEZE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD DAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...KEEPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND ADJUSTED SKY TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW 5 KT AROUND SUNSET. SKIES HAVE BRIEFLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
IN THE METROPLEX...BUT 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE INDICATES ANOTHER
BATCH OF CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF CIGS IN THE 050-060 RANGE TODAY
SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
AN INTERESTING THING OF NOTE IS THE BAND OF SNOW WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE OKC AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT...BUT MODELS
OVERWHELMINGLY SHUT THE PRECIP OFF AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE RED
RIVER LATER. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/
BAND OF MID LEVEL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ONGOING BATTLE
BETWEEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
INTO THIS DRY AIR. SO FAR MOST CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
HAD SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SLEET...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH SATURATION
HAS OCCURRED TO ALLOW FOR SOME MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THE SPECIAL 6Z SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M IN CLL
WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL. IT DEPICTED A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER OF AIR
NEAR 800MB WITH A READING AT 6 DEG C. FURTHERMORE THE LEVELS BELOW
850MB WERE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. WHILE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW FREEZING... THERE WAS
CONSIDERABLY LESS DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-850MB SUGGESTING LITTLE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THIS LAYER. THUS AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN REMOVING THE MENTION OF SNOW...AND THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SLEET. ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL ONLY REACH
ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS THAN IF THE PRECIP TYPE WERE
SLEET/SNOW AS WAS EXPECTED. THEREFORE WE HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 9 AM FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT ICING. BELIEVE
THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IN THIS AREA BY 6 OR 7 AM...AND
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MIDDAY...THE
CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CLEAR VIA
SUBLIMATION ANY ICY PATCHES THAT DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE REGION TODAY AND
PUSH MOST OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE
AT TREMENDOUS ODDS WITH REGARDS TO THIS MOISTURE TODAY. THE RUC IS
FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. IF THESE
CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN FORECAST...AND
LIKELY STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. IN THE GRIDS HAVE TRIED TO
SHOW CLEARING THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WORDING GETS AVERAGED OUT TO A
MEANINGLESS PARTLY SUNNY TERM. ANY LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY SHOULD EVANESCE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SLIDE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...TEMPS WILL CRATER INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS
REBOUND INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE. FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH
WINDS 20-25 MPH AND RH FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY WARRANT
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AND NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE A LOOK AT THIS
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE. WINDS RELAX ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
SATURDAY ALONG THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILD SWINGS FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...RUNNING THE GAMUT BETWEEN WARM AND DRY
TO SEVERE WEATHER TO WINTER STORM. OFTEN MODELS DISPLAY THEIR
WORST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. WHAT WE CAN SEE IN THE MODEL DATA IS THAT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW PACIFIC TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS.
IN A MACRO SENSE...THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO START OFF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COLD SPELL TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE COLD
AIR PERSIST WITH AN ARCTIC FETCH WHILE PACIFIC ENERGY PROVIDES THE
LIFT AND FETCHES GULF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY
FORECAST DOES SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
LOOKING AT COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. NORTH TEXAS WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF THIS SETUP...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY COULD START OFF INTERESTING WITH A FEW POTENTIAL WINTER
SYSTEMS WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE
ONE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR SHOWERS...AND
INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 19 45 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 37 14 47 30 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 32 14 42 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 33 12 45 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 33 12 44 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 35 20 45 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 37 15 45 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 38 17 46 31 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 37 18 48 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 34 13 49 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82