Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold Pacific storm will bring more precipitation to Interior
NorCal into Wednesday with snow levels into the upper foothill
elevations. There is a threat for more thunderstorms across the
region today. A brief period of drier weather is expected later
Wednesday into later Thursday before another weaker weather system
moves into NorCal late in the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Cold mid/upper low spinning off the NW coast of CA (N of 40N/130W)
continues to send waves of showers inland across NorCal early this
morning following the passage of the initial frontal band late
Monday afternoon. One line of showers extending from near Chico
southward to off the coast near Monterey is presently moving east
across the region.
It looks like it`s shaping up to be another active weather day
across the interior of NorCal with showers, thunderstorms and more
low-elevation snowfall. WV imagery shows another impulse already
lined up approaching the coast to the north of the Bay Area and
the HRRR indicates more showers associated with this likely
spreading inland across the Sac Valley after sunrise.
Appears a stronger negative-tilt short-wave ahead of the upper low
is timed to approach the coast around 00Z Wed, and if there`s
going to be any severe weather today it will likely occur late
in the day ahead of this feature. Forecast soundings in the Sac
Valley this afternoon indicate CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG and potential
for more rotating storms. Any breaks in cloud cover will add to
the instability, but surface temperatures in the lower to mid 50s
will be all that`s needed to initiate convection given the very
cold temperatures aloft (< -30C at 500 mbs). Primary threat will
probably be copious small hail, though a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. More refinement to the severe weather threat
will be made later this morning.
Main upper low forecast to swing through overnight tonight and
appears the heaviest precip will be along the coast extending into
the Central Valley where the strongest deformation sets up. Short-
wave ridging returns Wednesday as the upper low continues to drop
SEWD, so showers expected to taper off from the north with dry
weather through the day on Thursday. Next weaker system moves
into NorCal later Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Upper ridging forecast to begin building over the west coast this
weekend. Shortwave trough dropping over this ridge may bring a few
lingering showers to the northern mountains and Sierra Cascade
range early Saturday but conditions should be clearing most areas
thereafter. GFS dries out CWA by Saturday afternoon while flatter
ridge scenario of ECMWF would keep a few light showers going over
Shasta county. Warming airmass under the ridge on Saturday will
bring daytime highs up into the lower 70s for the central valley
or a few degrees above normal. By Sunday...all models amplify west
coast ridge enough to preclude any precipitation threat forecast
area wide. Clearing skies and warmer airmass will bring daytime
highs Sunday to anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
High amplitude ridge over the west coast will dominate the weather
pattern through the remainder of the extended period. Models in
good agreement in keeping the early to middle of next week dry
with daytime highs around 10 degrees above normal. Latest
extended models hint at return of wetter pattern towards the end
of next week.
&&
.Aviation...
MVFR conditions for the Valley with occasional IFR in heavier
showers as upper level low pressure system drops southeastward
across the area. Over mountains mainly IFR occasional LIFR in snow
showers. Snow levels between 2000 and 3000 feet msl. Southerly
winds 10 to 20 knots through about 02z Wednesday with lighter
winds after 02z.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 11 am pdt this morning west slope
northern sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
258 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING
FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BAND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FA. AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX HAS SLID SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS IN TULARE COUNTY
AND IS FALLING APART ATTM. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LITTLE CELL WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD CORE IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
MONTEREY BAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING
WITH A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE. THE HRRR/HIGH RES MODEL/ IS PUSHING THE LINE INTO THE SIERRA
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH 5 AM...SO HAVE LEFT THE
WSW UP FOR THE SIERRA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND BE PUSHING THROUGH THERE THROUGH 8 AM AND THE
CURRENT WSW FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TODAY...WELL IT DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
YOU BELIEVE. THE NAM12 IS NOT GIVING US MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY ACCORDING TO BUFKIT. ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THROUGH 18Z. THE HRRR 3KM REFLECTIVITY PROG IS BRINGING
THE RAIN BAND THROUGH HERE THROUGH 18Z WITH A STRONGER ONE ON ITS
HEELS MOVING INTO MERCED COUNTY AROUND MIDDAY AND RAPIDLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THIS. I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE AND WE HAVE HAD
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE VALLEY. I AM NOT REAL IMPRESSED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.
HOWEVER WITH TEMPS AT H500 -25 TO -30 IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET
THINGS GOING WITH HAILERS AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. SO I AM LEANING WITH THE WETTER HRRR.
KERN DESERT WINDS HAVE DIED OUT AND WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADV TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE PRECIP BAND THIS
AM AND ARE COVERED IN WSW.
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TO CROSS THE
REGION WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH STRONG LIFT AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. WE WILL SEE
PRECIP RETURN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER CROSSES THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 2500 FEET INTO THE FOOTHILLS. WILL
LOOK AT FEW MORE THINGS BEFORE PULLING THE TRIGGER ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES OR NOT.
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE LOW CENTER TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. WEAK RIDGING ON WED WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT AND KEEP IT
CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AND PROVIDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NICE WEEKEND IN STORE WITH QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PRECIPITATION.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KFAT 04-03 91:2000 52:1958 56:1933 33:1964
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
KBFL 04-03 90:1961 53:1965 62:1966 35:1955
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
CAZ096-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING CAZ098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1110 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/
FORECASTS THE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 11Z /0400 PDT/
TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH. THEREFORE...WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH 10Z /0300 PDT/
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WAS
SUPERSEDED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH TOOK EFFECT AT 05Z
TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.
SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1040 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/
FORECASTS THE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 11Z /0400 PDT/
TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH. THEREFORE...WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 10Z
/0300 PDT/ TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.
SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
/CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1020 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES
INTO THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
10Z /0300 PDT/ TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.
SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
/CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION...MESOLOW/DENVER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
DENVER. THE MESOSCYCLONE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT KDEN. JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KDEN...WINDS ARE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. HRRR AND RUC SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOLOW WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND
DRIFTING TO THE EAST. BELIEVE THAT THE HRRR AND RUC ARE TOO SLOW TO
WEAKEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AN HOUR TO
TWO EARLIER THAN THE MODELS. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN IN THE EVENING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS
NORTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE TAF SITES. ON WEDNESDAY...
ANTICIPATE VFR AT THE TAF SITES WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFTER
00Z THURSDAY. --PGW-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO FILL IN BETTER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. JET MOVING OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME WITH WARM ADVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ADVECTION HAS LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE OCCURRING BY NOW...HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ARE INCREASING AS WELL. ALREADY
SEEING GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO COLORADO. DRY DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL COMBINE WITH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER...A HIGHLIGHT IS BEING
HOISTED FOR THIS REASON...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY
ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES...HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST BY A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH EXPECTED DOWNSLOPING LATER TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. THEN AS THE SURFACE
LOW ENTERS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS
THE JET MOVES NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING INCREASES. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
THE JET NEARBY...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS...HAVE ADDED INCREASED SKY COVER TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS.
LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
UNTIL THEN...WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF MAINLY DRY WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE OOZING
SOUTHWARD...BUT COULD VERY WELL STALL OUT DURING DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME STRATUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
FOG TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN BRING
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALL OF THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE DAY
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AS CORE OF UPPER JET SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER BY DRIVING A STRONGER LEAD
SHORT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...RESULTING IN A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND THUS HAVE A
STRONGER WAVE FOR COLORADO. OVERALL...PREFERENCE ON THE NATIONAL
AND LOCAL LEVEL IS WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS FROM THESE MODELS INDICATE MODEST
UPSLOPE...MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES...AND GOOD VERTICAL MOTION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. CERTAINLY A SPRING-TIME
SCENARIO THAT DESERVES WATCHING SO CONTINUED YESTERDAYS TREND AND
WENT A LITTLE HEAVIER WITH REGARD TO POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD START OFF WITH SOME RAIN ON THE
PLAINS BUT EXPECT A CHANGEOVER IN THE LATE EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST
THREAT OF REACHING ANY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WOULD BE IN THE
FOOTHILLS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE A WATCH THIS FAR
OUT. SOME OF THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE DID SUGGEST HEAVIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED
THESE LEAD SHORT WAVES HAVE BUSTED SNOW FORECASTS IN THE PAST SO
THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE KEY IN THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY DURING THE DAY
AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. PROBABLY NOT MUCH IF
ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS AFTER NOON AS LONG AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...AND THEN
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDS THIS WAVE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING...DIGGING...AND EVENTUAL MOVEMENT ONCE IT
REACHES EASTERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW
CHANCE OF POPS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE SINCE
MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WILD CARD IS
BJC WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CYCLONE AROUND AND PRODUCE
NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT VRB AND LIGHT BEFORE THE
STRONGER WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY GO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...BUT THEN SHOULD GO BACK TO
DRAINAGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY WILL TURN
THROUGH NORTH AND EAST THEN TO DRAINAGE. WILL KEEP THE MORE
WESTERLY PATTERN FOR NOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED THIS MORNING...MOST PRECIP WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS/VIS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE BARELY UNDER CRITERIA
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN ARE THE WINDS
TODAY WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35 TO 40 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND
ARE ALREADY GUSTY THIS MORNING. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 11AM
UNTIL 8PM. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH EVERYWHERE ELSE TO KEEP
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITERIA...BUT DOES STAND WATCHING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until Wednesday night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until Wednesday afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage Wednesday evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Prev Discussion [750 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional radar mosaics show some weakening convection, mainly in
the form of showers, moving across southern AL early this morning.
Earlier CAM and global models did not pick up on this, but the
latest (06z run) local WRF and HRRR both shower a few showers
making it into our far western zones in Southeast AL and the FL
Panhandle. Updated the forecast to show slight chance PoPs in
these areas. locally dense fog around mainly Bay County should
lift with the approach of these showers. Further east, the
forecast looks pretty much on track with fair skies expected to
continue. Temps will warm quickly today and peak in the lower 80s
away from the coast. a cooling sea breeze will keep afternoon
temps in the lower 70s at the beaches.
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the weather dry and
warm through the middle of the week. Expect to see high
temperatures in the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. As
light onshore flow gradually increases low-level moisture, low
temperatures will continue to moderate with upper 40 to lower 50
for Wednesday morning, and mid 50s by Thursday morning.
.Long Term [Thursday night Through Tuesday]...
The deep layer ridge pattern will hold through Thursday before the
upper ridge is shunted eastward by a developing trough in the Great
Plains. This trough will lift northeast to the Great Lakes as
another trough develops into the Southern Plains over the weekend.
The associated cold front will make it into AL on Friday when we
reintroduce PoPs to the forecast. The front will then stall roughly
half way across the forecast area on Saturday. There are a lot of
model discrepancies as to what happens after that, but the pattern
looks to remain unsettled with large scale troughing in place.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday with
increased cloud cover and scattered convection keep temps closer
to seasonal levels on Sunday.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] VLIFR conditions in fog have settled in at
ECP this morning, but conditions should improve to VFR by 14z or
so. Look for a sea breeze to kick in this afternoon at area
terminals. MVFR visibility is forecast at TLH, ECP and DHN for
later tonight during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise and elsewhere,
VFR will prevail.
.Marine...
High pressure over the waters this morning will gradually slide
eastward over the next several days. Light winds will increase
slightly by Thursday as the gradient tightens. However, conditions
are forecast to remain below headline levels through the end of
the week.
.Fire Weather...
Although lowest relative humidities will drop into the low to mid
20s this afternoon...winds and and fuel moisture levels will
preclude any red flag conditions. The airmass will moisten up a
little on Wednesday then more rapidly into the upcoming weekend.
Thus...red flag conditions are not expected through this time.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 82 46 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 58 76 61 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 81 52 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 0
Albany 82 49 84 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 83 48 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 49 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 53 75 58 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WOOL/BLOCK
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
750 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional radar mosaics show some weakening convection, mainly in
the form of showers, moving across southern AL early this morning.
Earlier CAM and global models did not pick up on this, but the
latest (06z run) local WRF and HRRR both shower a few showers
making it into our far western zones in Southeast AL and the FL
Panhandle. Updated the forecast to show slight chance PoPs in
these areas. locally dense fog around mainly Bay County should
lift with the approach of these showers. Further east, the
forecast looks pretty much on track with fair skies expected to
continue. Temps will warm quickly today and peak in the lower 80s
away from the coast. a cooling sea breeze will keep afternoon
temps in the lower 70s at the beaches.
&&
.Prev Discussion [719 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the weather dry and
warm through the middle of the week. Expect to see high
temperatures in the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. As
light onshore flow gradually increases low-level moisture, low
temperatures will continue to moderate with upper 40 to lower 50
for Wednesday morning, and mid 50s by Thursday morning.
.Long Term [Thursday night Through Tuesday]...
The deep layer ridge pattern will hold through Thursday before the
upper ridge is shunted eastward by a developing trough in the Great
Plains. This trough will lift northeast to the Great Lakes as
another trough develops into the Southern Plains over the weekend.
The associated cold front will make it into AL on Friday when we
reintroduce PoPs to the forecast. The front will then stall roughly
half way across the forecast area on Saturday. There are a lot of
model discrepancies as to what happens after that, but the pattern
looks to remain unsettled with large scale troughing in place.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday with
increased cloud cover and scattered convection keep temps closer
to seasonal levels on Sunday.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] VLIFR conditions in fog have settled in at
ECP this morning, but conditions should improve to VFR by 14z or
so. Look for a sea breeze to kick in this afternoon at area
terminals. MVFR visibility is forecast at TLH, ECP and DHN for
later tonight during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise and elsewhere,
VFR will prevail.
.Marine...
High pressure over the waters this morning will gradually slide
eastward over the next several days. Light winds will increase
slightly by Thursday as the gradient tightens. However, conditions
are forecast to remain below headline levels through the end of
the week.
.Fire Weather...
Although lowest relative humidities will drop into the low to mid
20s this afternoon...winds and and fuel moisture levels will
preclude any red flag conditions. The airmass will moisten up a
little on Wednesday then more rapidly into the upcoming weekend.
Thus...red flag conditions are not expected through this time.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown has reached minor flood stage and
will continue to rise to near 17.6 feet this morning. Minor
flooding has also just begun along the Choctawhatchee River at
Caryville and is also forecast to occur at Bruce on Thursday.
Elsewhere, several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 82 46 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 58 76 61 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 81 52 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 0
Albany 82 49 84 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 83 48 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 49 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 53 75 58 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WOOL/BLOCK
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/LAMERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
247 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MOST GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE A BIT ON LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AND CLOSED CELL STRATOCU
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S TO
THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. 950-900 MB RH ON THE RAP MODEL...A
GOOD PROXY FOR CURRENT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND EXTENT...HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND IT INDICATES A SLOWER
SCATTERING TREND THAN HAD BEEN FEATURED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NOW LOOKING LIKE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. LEFT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
MAX T FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES THERE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL
BECOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPS REMAIN MILD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AND TEMPS
ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
REACHES THE EASTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...TEMPS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS LAYER THUR
THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA WITH P-CLOUDY SKIES ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTN. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN IN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LVL FEATURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN...AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. HOWEVER THE DIFFICULTIES IN HOW MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE ON THE STUBBORN SFC RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LLVL FLOW WILL BE TURNING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP
ADDTL DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIKELY SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SLOWLY LIFTING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THIS
WILL DELAY THE MOISTENING AND PRECIP FROM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WED. NONETHELESS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AFT MIDNIGHT...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE CWFA...WITH CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STUBBORN SFC
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK
WAVE PROGGED TO INITIALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTH WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND MAY INDEED KEEP PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA UNTIL WED AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS DELAY...HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT STILL HAVE SLGT CHC RAIN FURTHER NORTH BY MIDDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD TOUCH 50 DEG
WED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY
LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WED AFTN/EVE.
THE INITIAL SFC VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
WED AFTN/EVE...WITH ADDTL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/WARMTH FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE QUASI-BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE A GROWTH OF THE PRECIP
FIELD AS WELL AS INCREASED INSTABILITY INTO THUR. WARM AIR WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LOW/MID 40S. TO THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
50S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB VORT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
THE SECOND SFC WAVE POISED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THUR NGT. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND SHUD BE
ABLE TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S POSSIBLY MID/UPR 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FRI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
MIDDAY FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING WITH
NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS FRI AFTN.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY
PUSHING IN FOR FRI NGT/SAT...AND BRINGING DRY AIR BACK TO THE REGION
THRU SAT. MID-LVL FLOW DOES REMAIN IN A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP SAT...AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING YET ANOTHER MID-LVL TROUGH ARRIVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT...WHICH WITH THE RELATIVELY QUICK FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUN EVE/MON. FORTUNATELY
TEMPS SHUD BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
ABATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 19 UTC...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AROUND 12 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...INCREASING MOISTURE...SURGING OVER A SURFACE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE 30 HOUR KORD TAF AND JUST GO WITH
-SHRA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH ON -SHRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW ON THREAT FOR TSRA AT A GIVEN TERMINAL LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLT CHC OF SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW LOW END GALES ARE SHOWING UP ON COASTAL OBS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL WSW
TO SW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
FORM MIDWEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY THEN WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1209 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MOST GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE A BIT ON LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AND CLOSED CELL STRATOCU
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S TO
THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. 950-900 MB RH ON THE RAP MODEL...A
GOOD PROXY FOR CURRENT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND EXTENT...HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND IT INDICATES A SLOWER
SCATTERING TREND THAN HAD BEEN FEATURED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NOW LOOKING LIKE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. LEFT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
MAX T FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES THERE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL
BECOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPS REMAIN MILD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AND TEMPS
ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
REACHES THE EASTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...TEMPS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS LAYER THUR
THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA WITH P-CLOUDY SKIES ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTN. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN IN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LVL FEATURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN...AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. HOWEVER THE DIFFICULTIES IN HOW MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE ON THE STUBBORN SFC RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LLVL FLOW WILL BE TURNING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP
ADDTL DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIKELY SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SLOWLY LIFTING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THIS
WILL DELAY THE MOISTENING AND PRECIP FROM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WED. NONETHELESS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AFT MIDNIGHT...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE CWFA...WITH CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STUBBORN SFC
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK
WAVE PROGGED TO INITIALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTH WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND MAY INDEED KEEP PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA UNTIL WED AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS DELAY...HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT STILL HAVE SLGT CHC RAIN FURTHER NORTH BY MIDDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD TOUCH 50 DEG
WED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY
LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WED AFTN/EVE.
THE INITIAL SFC VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
WED AFTN/EVE...WITH ADDTL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/WARMTH FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE QUASI-BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE A GROWTH OF THE PRECIP
FIELD AS WELL AS INCREASED INSTABILITY INTO THUR. WARM AIR WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LOW/MID 40S. TO THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
50S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB VORT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
THE SECOND SFC WAVE POISED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THUR NGT. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND SHUD BE
ABLE TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S POSSIBLY MID/UPR 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FRI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
MIDDAY FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING WITH
NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS FRI AFTN.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY
PUSHING IN FOR FRI NGT/SAT...AND BRINGING DRY AIR BACK TO THE REGION
THRU SAT. MID-LVL FLOW DOES REMAIN IN A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP SAT...AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING YET ANOTHER MID-LVL TROUGH ARRIVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT...WHICH WITH THE RELATIVELY QUICK FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUN EVE/MON. FORTUNATELY
TEMPS SHUD BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
ABATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 19 UTC...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AROUND 12 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...INCREASING MOISTURE...SURGING OVER A SURFACE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE 30 HOUR KORD TAF AND JUST GO WITH
-SHRA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH ON -SHRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW ON THREAT FOR TSRA AT A GIVEN TERMINAL LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLT CHC OF SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW LOW END GALES ARE SHOWING UP ON COASTAL OBS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL WSW
TO SW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
FORM MIDWEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY THEN WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MOST GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE A BIT ON LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AND CLOSED CELL STRATOCU
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S TO
THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. 950-900 MB RH ON THE RAP MODEL...A
GOOD PROXY FOR CURRENT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND EXTENT...HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND IT INDICATES A SLOWER
SCATTERING TREND THAN HAD BEEN FEATURED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NOW LOOKING LIKE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. LEFT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
MAX T FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES THERE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL
BECOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPS REMAIN MILD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AND TEMPS
ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
REACHES THE EASTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...TEMPS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS LAYER THUR
THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA WITH P-CLOUDY SKIES ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTN. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN IN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LVL FEATURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN...AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. HOWEVER THE DIFFICULTIES IN HOW MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE ON THE STUBBORN SFC RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LLVL FLOW WILL BE TURNING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP
ADDTL DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIKELY SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SLOWLY LIFTING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THIS
WILL DELAY THE MOISTENING AND PRECIP FROM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WED. NONETHELESS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AFT MIDNIGHT...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE CWFA...WITH CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STUBBORN SFC
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK
WAVE PROGGED TO INITIALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTH WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND MAY INDEED KEEP PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA UNTIL WED AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS DELAY...HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT STILL HAVE SLGT CHC RAIN FURTHER NORTH BY MIDDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD TOUCH 50 DEG
WED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY
LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WED AFTN/EVE.
THE INITIAL SFC VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
WED AFTN/EVE...WITH ADDTL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/WARMTH FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE QUASI-BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE A GROWTH OF THE PRECIP
FIELD AS WELL AS INCREASED INSTABILITY INTO THUR. WARM AIR WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LOW/MID 40S. TO THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
50S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB VORT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
THE SECOND SFC WAVE POISED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THUR NGT. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND SHUD BE
ABLE TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S POSSIBLY MID/UPR 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FRI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
MIDDAY FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING WITH
NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS FRI AFTN.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY
PUSHING IN FOR FRI NGT/SAT...AND BRINGING DRY AIR BACK TO THE REGION
THRU SAT. MID-LVL FLOW DOES REMAIN IN A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP SAT...AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING YET ANOTHER MID-LVL TROUGH ARRIVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT...WHICH WITH THE RELATIVELY QUICK FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUN EVE/MON. FORTUNATELY
TEMPS SHUD BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS 025-030 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
BMD/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND MVFR STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS INTO THE HIGH 20 KT RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER...WITH GUSTS ENDING ALTOGETHER IN THE
EVENING. SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE RESULTS IN A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT BACK EDGE
TO ACCELERATE IN ITS EROSION WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS AND BEGIN TO WAVE BACK NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A SLOW SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO
REMAIN BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH WITH CIGS.
* HIGH WITH WINDS.
BMD/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLT CHC OF SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW LOW END GALES ARE SHOWING UP ON COASTAL OBS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL WSW
TO SW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
FORM MIDWEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY THEN WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
842 PM CDT
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH REQUIRED A FEW FORECAST UPDATES. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM. THAT
COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM A SPEED MAX PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IL
HELPED FORCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION THINKING VERY FEW
PLACES WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN THE LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT
SPREADS. ORD AND MDW BOTH FEATURE LOW 60 TEMPS OVER 30 DEWPOINTS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND IT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
346 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDER OR EVEN FROZEN PRECIP
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE EVEN COME PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE REACHED 70
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...OVERALL WARMING TEMPS ARE EITHER NOW
HOLDING STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING AND IS DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER FINALLY MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD
OF SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST...WHILE
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SPORADIC
WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED HEAR IN THE NEAR TERM AND
WOULD EXPECT THIS HIGHER GUSTS TO LIKELY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH OVERALL PREVAILING WINDS/GUSTS NOT LIKELY
BEING QUITE AS HIGH. SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN APPROACHING THE CWA
ALL DAY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AS THEY APPROACHED A REALLY DRY
AIRMASS...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. A CONTINUED DRY TREND IS
MORE LIKELY HERE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE NOW
LIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AS WAA PERSISTS...AND WHILE BETTER
LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH THE CWA. A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY IN THE 20S IN SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME AND DONT FEEL THAT EVERYTHING
WILL COME TOGETHER TO ALLOW ANY PREVAILING PRECIP TO DEVELOP...AND
ESPECIALLY WHEN ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CWA IS STILL BE
OFFSET WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S FOR LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS APPEARING QUIET WITH LARGE VORT MAX LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA...A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THE WESTERN CONUS. EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVES AND
WAA SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO START
SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
VARIABILITY WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP...WHICH WILL
BE ALL RAIN...REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND SO HAVE LIMITED CHANCES
POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH
WAA PUSH TO PROVIDE PRECIP TO REALLY SPREAD NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES PERSISTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LLJ REALLY BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTH
WILL KEEP THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL RAIN...BUT WITH SOME
CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS COULD HOVER AROUND THE LOW 30S.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOTE MADE MENTION OF
IT...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO INCH CLOSER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS COINCIDING WITH A DECENT LLJ...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...LLJ WILL VEER
AND A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRIER PERIOD DURING THE DAY...BEFORE PRECIP MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE
CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY WITH
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
OVERALL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH...THE
TIME OF DAY THAT THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA SHOULD HELP LIMIT
OVERALL INTENSITY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING WSW OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS 025-030 TUESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD TURNING WSW BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAINING GUSTY. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THE FRONT HAS
DIMINISHED...AND EXPECT IT TO PASS OVER THE TERMINALS DRY TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER
PORTIONS OF IOWA SPREADING EAST TRAILING THE COLD FRONT. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO RFD EARLY MORNING...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO
SPREAD EAST FARTHER INTO THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOCALLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...EAST FLOW. RAIN LIKELY WITH IFR LIKELY ESPECIALLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW. RAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO
TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING A SHARP INVERSION IN
PLACE MITIGATING WIND GUSTS...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST THEN WEST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BETTER MIXING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN
BUT SPEEDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE EASING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS TO 30 KT ARE STILL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME 35 KT
GALES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SET UP LOOKS MARGINAL ENOUGH TO KEEP FREQUENT GALES FROM
OCCURRING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE HEADLINES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE IL/IN WATERS HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TO EASE BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH AXIS/WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BETTER ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR OR
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SOME TIME FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THIS
TIMING MAY CHANGE A BIT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM AN EASTERLY
WIND TO SOME VARIATION OF A WESTERLY WIND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO CROSS THE LAKE OVER
THE WEEKEND BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 848 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
01z/8pm surface analysis shows cold front extending from eastern Iowa
into central Missouri. Thin line of convection has developed along
the front and is progressing eastward toward the Mississippi
River: however, latest HRRR still suggests it will dissipate as it
pushes into west-central Illinois later this evening. Surface obs
show only a narrow ribbon of moisture return from the Gulf
immediately along the front, with dewpoints quickly dropping off
into the upper 30s/lower 40s further east into western Illinois.
Given limited moisture and latest radar imagery beginning to show
a weakening trend, will maintain just low chance POPs west of the
I-55 corridor through midnight. Further east, will go with a dry
forecast for the remainder of the KILX CWA. Zone update has
already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front is currently making its way through the Illinois River
Valley and will quickly pass through central Illinois over the next
couple of hours, accompanied by little more than a few mid-level
clouds and a shift in the wind. Made a few minor adjustments to
FROPA timing from previous forecast, with winds shifting to westerly
at KPIA/KSPI at 06z, then further east to KCMI by 08z. After front
exits into Indiana, mostly clear skies and brisk westerly winds
will continue through Tuesday morning. As pressure gradient
weakens, winds will diminish Tuesday afternoon/evening. After
that, warm frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward,
spreading clouds and perhaps a few showers into the area Tuesday
evening. Forecast soundings indicate VFR ceilings of around 5000ft
developing along/north of the front after 02/03z.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Strong southerly winds gusts occurring about as expected today
ahead of an approaching cold front. Also, as anticipated, the
pre-frontal precipitation has been minimal thus far. Main near
term forecast concern remains the winds and how much precipitation
will occur until frontal passage later tonight. Then, attention
turns to the extended wet period that should occur from Tuesday
night into Friday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday: Broken pre-frontal band of
showers and a few thunderstorms has continued to struggle to
maintain itself as it has pushed east today. However, the cold
front associated with the current storm system is still well to
the west, extending from low pressure centered over southwest
Minnesota into central Texas. Recent satellite loops have shown a
CU field beginning to fire along the front, so until the front
clears the area later tonight a stray shower can`t be ruled out.
However, as these clouds have a strong diurnal component to them,
would not be surprised to see these clouds and any precipitation
associated with them dying off within a few hours of sunset.
Then, after a brief break in the precipitation risk on Tuesday, the
well advertised prolonged precipitation event is still on track
for Tuesday night into Friday. While it will not be raining the
entire time, there are enough minor model differences to preclude
tying to add a dry period at this time.
From Tuesday night into Thursday the forecast area will lie
between strong upper troffing over eastern Canada and the
Southwest United States. The forcing between these two features
will consist primarily of jet streak induced upper divergence
/mid-level frontogenesis, as well as periodically strong
isentropic ascent across a stout baroclinic/frontal zone. Still
some model disagreement with respect to where the surface front
will lie for much of the period, which will be the dividing line
between elevated and surface based convection. The latest
consensus has the the surface frontal zone wavering between the
I-70 and I-72 corridor. This consensus is a little further north
than yesterday, so have pushed the thunder risk north across much
of the forecast area for most of the period, especially since
mid-level lapse rates are steep even well north of the surface
front.
The remnants of the southwest U.S. upper low, and associated
surface low, will push across the area Thursday night into Friday.
This could result in a period of more robust convection, although
the current timing of its passage is not terribly favorable for
severe weather.
The temperature forecast from Tuesday-Friday will be quite tricky
due to the strong thermal gradient that is apt to be across the
area. Our current forecast will exhibit a north to south thermal
gradient of approximately 20 degrees for much of the period. A
major temperature forecast bust is possible if the models continue
to shift the ultimate location of the surface front.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday: Quieter, cooler than normal,
weather is expected for much of the weekend in the wake of the
extended wet period. Another strong system may be in our vicinity
for the beginning of next week. However, model agreement in the
details is quite poor, and have only carried Slight Chance PoPs
Sunday night into Monday with its possible arrival.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT REACHED THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
DRY/CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW N/S
ORIENTED CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST STARTING
TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN WI BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THEN TURN WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THE
STRONGER PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY IN SHOWING A SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA...ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE CU DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CAPES. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENT WINDS AND DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD BASE LAYER. LOW WEB BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
THE THREAT OF THE STRONGER STORMS IS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SINCE THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT
NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI.
COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD LATE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY BASED ON
MIXING UP TO 900MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN WITH STRONG SYSTEM MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...AN INTENSE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
CUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN
SOUTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WITH AN EXCELLENT FEED OFF
THE WESTERN GULF. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MO SETTING
UP AN IDEAL UPGLIDE OF THE DEEPENING MOISTURE...AND ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH POPS WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR DAYS NOW. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS
THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD. COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF TAKES THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
CYCLONE INTO EASTERN IA TO NORTHERN LAKE MI WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
LOW TRACKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND THEN TO NEAR CHICAGO.
EITHER SOLUTION OFFERS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS TO
3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. (WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FROST IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE GROUND SO AS
TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO SOAK IN...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO ISSUES).
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY WITH THE WEEKEND DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WELL
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (ECMWF)...BUT
MUCH WEAKER (GFS). IF THE LATEST RUNS VERIFY THEN TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE ALL BLEND WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE DAY. STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL
USHER IN WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF I-80. LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 KTS TOWARD EVENING AND TURN NORTHERLY. A CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP FAR SOUTHEAST IA NEAR KBRL ON SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND...AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MO.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
809 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.
In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.
Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.
On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.
By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.
Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.
The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.
Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.
Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 809 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
In addition to a batch of convection occurring across mainly western
KY this evening, a piece of energy in the upper flow ejects tonight,
and should result in a round of late night showers/storms that
restricts cigs to MVFR, and vsbys to IFR at times. During the
afternoon, some strong to severe thunderstorm activity is possible
in scattered/ isolated fashion, with not enough certainty to mention
in the TAFs at this time. Stronger action is expected with system
passage tomorrow night, in a more consolidated form. Southerly winds
will increase in speed and become gusty Thursday, on its approach.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
417 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Activity firing along an elevated boundary layer theta-e axis from
Perry County Missouri...along the Shawnee Foothills in Southern
Illinois to near Southern Union and McLean Counties in West Kentucky.
Periodic reports of pea (less than 1/4 inch) hail have been reported
with the isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. This boundary is the
former cold front that moved into the area late last night into
this morning.
The 3km HRRR guidance has done a pretty good job of modeling the storm
scale expansion along the boundary. Intermittent hail production will
still be a likelihood through sunset. Precipitation loading and
evaporative cooling could also generate some isolated wind gusts
in excess of 40 mph as well through late afternoon.
$$
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Weak surface front has become difficult to locate this
afternoon...but seems to be roughly along a line from ksdf to kpah
to kpof. This is about where the surface pressure trough and
strongest dew point gradient are located. A small line of showers
and storms has developed from kmdh west across kfam at 20z. This
activity correlates with a strong 850 mb instability and thetae
gradient. The activity will likely shift east northeast across
southern IL and southwest IN through early evening.
As for the overnight hours...there is some potential for additional
activity to develop. The front will sharpen up over western KY and
southeast MO tonight...and deep southwest flow will result in
increasing precip water values. With very limited instability and
moisture...pops will be kept in the chance range. Best chance will
be along and north of Interstate 64...closer to the 850 mb front.
On Wednesday...the front will lift north across our region...passing
north of Interstate 64 late in the day. Again...highest pops will be
in northern counties...closer to the location of the front during
the peak heating hours. With no significant upper level
support...pops will still be kept in the chance category for most
areas.
Models are in good agreement that a round of heavy precip is likely
Wednesday night as a mid level impulse lifts northeast. Heaviest
qpf...on the order of an inch or so...is likely in southern IL/sw
Indiana in closer proximity to the surface front. The surface front
will be along or north of Interstate 70...but strong low level
moisture transport should be sufficient for heavy rainers. Some hail
is possible in the stronger updrafts...but overall severe weather
potential is limited by lack of surface based instability.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
The transition from short term to long term part of the forecast will
be subtle as the WFO PAH forecast area remains boldly in the warm
sector on Thursday.
Recent trends suggest that there may be some stabilization of the
boundary layer as well as a brief capping aloft during the morning
and early afternoon hours. There may some insolation at mid-
morning enough to warm parcels through the low level cap to support
isolated strong convection between 10 am and 1 pm Thursday afternoon.
However...the NAM-WRF numerical model family indicates that an
organized convective line (squall line?) will develop from the cold
front toward southern sections of the WFO CWA. Given the low-level
turning...cannot rule out some decent updrafts during the
afternoon with pre-frontal convective line. This may produce
isolated to scattered severe storms. The better lift and overall
instability will be realized with the approaching cold front
itself, yielding a better potential for hail...wind gusts and
isolated tornado potential, as the upper trough becomes more
negatively titled. The majority of the severe threat should be
out of the WFO PAH CWA before daybreak on Friday.
Given the congestion of intermittent convective elements
(thunderstorm clusters) throughout the day, it will be difficult
to pin down any defined time period were at least isolated severe
storms and areal flooding will not be a concern Thursday afternoon
and night.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
A weak cold front has nearly lost identity over the Lower Ohio
Valley. Scattered low and mid clouds will arrive from the
west/southwest this afternoon...otherwise no aviation concerns exist
through 00z.
Early this evening...vfr cigs will overspread the kcgi/kpah areas as
the front sharpens over western KY and southeast MO. These clouds
will reach the kevv/kowb areas toward midnight. Some showers are
possible...but potential is too low for inclusion in tafs.
The front will become a warm front and lift north across the region
Wed morning. MVFR cigs are likely to develop early in the morning
along and behind this front. Some light haze or fog is also likely
as more humid air arrives.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...Smith
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR BANGOR AND VICINITY WHERE UPPER 40S
ARE NOW EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR ALSO LENDS ITSELF TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TOMORROW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THREAT
OF A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPPING THROUGH THE OMEGA BLOCK INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK DURING WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE SKY AND POPS ONCE 12Z
GUIDANCE ILLUMINATES THE SITUATION MORE. THE KEY WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGELINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STUBBORN LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN WELL SE OF THE AREA (S OF ERN NS
ATTM) W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF LGT SNOW CONTG TO XTND BACK SWWRD
INTO OUR SERN AREAS - MAINLY NRN/CENTRAL WASH COUNTY ATTM. CALL TO
TOPSFIELD DOT RPTD LGT SNOW W/ SOME BLSN W/ ABT 6 INCHES IN
VANCEBORO... WILL CONT THE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV FOR ZN 32 AND THE
WNTR STORM WRNG FOR ZN 17. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVG E OF THE AREAS BY ERLY AM SO WILL CONT THE
ADV/WRNG TIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ SEASONAL TEMPS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA W/ CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS TREND WILL CONT TO
SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AM AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND CLR NGT TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE TNGT
W/ LOWS ABT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MAINE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN LIFT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP TYPE
BECAUSE IT HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY LOW CAN MAKE IT BEFORE THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. AT THIS
TIME, MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER STARTING OUT AS SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP BACK SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
LOW. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR TRIES TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WHOLE MESS WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR ERLY THIS AM WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE AREA W/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TNGT...
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEN
DROP BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STILL EXPECT CONDS TO DROP BLO GLWS ERLY THIS AFTN W/
SCA CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO LATE TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MID WEEK AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS, LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2014 WILL END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU AND THE 3RD SNOWIEST. BANGOR IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1939
FOR THE COLDEST ON RECORD. A COMPLETE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH
2014 WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
954 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS. MODELS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON FORECAST HIGHS TODAY
SO THIS ADDED A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST:
MAV MET ECS
PORTLAND 41 40 51
CONCORD 43 45 51
LEBANON 45 43 54
THE ISSUE IN QUESTION IS THE DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTED LOW. ALREADY THIS MORNING THE
TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO 40 IN PORTLAND AS IT DID NOT GET THAT
COLD OVERNIGHT. MORNING GYX SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD LAYER WITH AN
INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH PLENTY OF SUN... IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT MIXING TO 900 MB COULD OCCUR RESULTING IN A HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN PORTLAND. FURTHER TO THE
WEST... WARMER AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ARE NOW
EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE WEST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE AROUND THE MIDCOAST
WHERE COLD AIR HANGS ON THE LONGEST AND MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40 DEGREES TODAY.
645AM UPDATE...
***MARCH ENDED UP BEING THE FOURTH COLDEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR
PORTLAND. RECORDS BEGIN IN 1941. "RELATIVELY" MILD LAST FEW DAYS
OF THE MONTH PUT THE FOREST CITY OUT OF CONTENTION FOR THE
COLDEST MARCH EVER. DESPITE THIS...ONLY 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
THE WHOLE MONTH.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
ITS WHEELS TO OUR EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PERSISTENT
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN IS HANDLING THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY WELL...AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA OF
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT H8 TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE DARTING IN AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME AND IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AT NIGHT
WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START THE PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE`LL SEE INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL RETURN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...TO BE EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES
EMERGE AFTER MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EAST COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... SCHWIBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
642 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
***MARCH ENDED UP BEING THE FOURTH COLDEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR
PORTLAND. RECORDS BEGIN IN 1941. "RELATIVELY" MILD LAST FEW DAYS
OF THE MONTH PUT THE FOREST CITY OUT OF CONTENTION FOR THE
COLDEST MARCH EVER. DESPITE THIS...ONLY 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
THE WHOLE MONTH.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
ITS WHEELS TO OUR EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PERSISTENT
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN IS HANDLING THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY WELL...AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA OF
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT H8 TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FCST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE DARTING IN AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME AND IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AT NIGHT
WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START THE PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE`LL SEE INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL RETURN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...TO BE EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES
EMERGE AFTER MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EAST COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
633 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
ITS WHEELS TO OUR EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PERSISTENT
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN IS HANDLING THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY WELL...AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA OF
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT H8 TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FCST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE DARTING IN AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME AND IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AT NIGHT
WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START THE PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE`LL SEE INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL RETURN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...TO BE EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES
EMERGE AFTER MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EAST COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
627 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0620L: SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS XTRM SERN SECTIONS
(MAINLY CENTRAL WASH COUNTY - ZN17) ATTM AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY. WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS PRETTY MUCH OVR...HAVE
ALLOWED THE WNTR WX ADV FOR NRN WASH COUNTY - ZN32 AND THE WNTR
STORM WRNG FOR CENTRAL WASH COUNTY - ZN17 TO EXPIRE AT 0600L.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS AND HRLY TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDS THRU THE ERLY AM HRS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A
QUIET DAY W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A DRY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. ATTM SKIES
HAVE CLRD ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS AND THIS SHOULD WORK INTO E
CENTRAL AND SERN AREAS NXT FEW HRS...
ORIG DISC: STUBBORN LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN WELL SE OF THE AREA (S
OF ERN NS ATTM) W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF LGT SNOW CONTG TO XTND
BACK SWWRD INTO OUR SERN AREAS - MAINLY NRN/CENTRAL WASH COUNTY
ATTM. CALL TO TOPSFIELD DOT RPTD LGT SNOW W/ SOME BLSN W/ ABT 6
INCHES IN VANCEBORO... WILL CONT THE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV FOR ZN 32
AND THE WNTR STORM WRNG FOR ZN 17. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVG E OF THE AREAS BY ERLY AM SO WILL CONT THE
ADV/WRNG TIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ SEASONAL TEMPS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA W/ CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS TREND WILL CONT TO
SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AM AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND CLR NGT TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE TNGT
W/ LOWS ABT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR ERLY THIS AM WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE AREA W/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TNGT...
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STILL EXPECT CONDS TO DROP BLO GLWS ERLY THIS AFTN W/
SCA CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO LATE TNGT...
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2014 WILL END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU AND THE 3RD SNOWIEST. BANGOR IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1939
FOR THE COLDEST ON RECORD. A COMPLETE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH
2014 WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
345 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STUBBORN LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN WELL SE OF THE AREA (S OF ERN NS
ATTM) W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF LGT SNOW CONTG TO XTND BACK SWWRD
INTO OUR SERN AREAS - MAINLY NRN/CENTRAL WASH COUNTY ATTM. CALL TO
TOPSFIELD DOT RPTD LGT SNOW W/ SOME BLSN W/ ABT 6 INCHES IN
VANCEBORO... WILL CONT THE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV FOR ZN 32 AND THE
WNTR STORM WRNG FOR ZN 17. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVG E OF THE AREAS BY ERLY AM SO WILL CONT THE
ADV/WRNG TIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ SEASONAL TEMPS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA W/ CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS TREND WILL CONT TO
SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AM AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND CLR NGT TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE TNGT
W/ LOWS ABT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MAINE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN LIFT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP TYPE
BECAUSE IT HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY LOW CAN MAKE IT BEFORE THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. AT THIS
TIME, MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER STARTING OUT AS SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP BACK SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
LOW. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR TRIES TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WHOLE MESS WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR ERLY THIS AM WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE AREA W/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TNGT...
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEN
DROP BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STILL EXPECT CONDS TO DROP BLO GLWS ERLY THIS AFTN W/
SCA CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO LATE TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MID WEEK AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS, LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2014 WILL END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU AND THE 3RD SNOWIEST. BANGOR IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1939
FOR THE COLDEST ON RECORD. A COMPLETE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH
2014 WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA AND SETTLES OVER NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED (AS OF 19Z) FROM THE CENTRAL
VA PIEDMONT TO THE BORDER OF SE VA/NE NC. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S FROM THE S-CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TO NE NC. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER. READINGS AWAY FROM THE COASTS ARE
GENERALLY 65-70...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTLINES.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ONCE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING WANES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N). A RATHER EXTENSIVE MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST
FRONTAL BAND ALOFT...WHICH EXTENDS W-E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 02/17Z HRRR SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER E OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER
COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT LARGELY REMAINS S OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW UNDERNEATH WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S S/SW. HIGHS WILL BE LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NE...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL THE FRONT N AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER THE
MOST RESISTANCE AND WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE EXTREME NRN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER...ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHC POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED N THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA (AWAY FROM THE COASTS)...WITH UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE TRICKIER...PARTIAL CLEARING
COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH INTERIOR PORTIONS INTO THE LOW/MID
70S...WHILE 65-70 WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. SE FLOW IS LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QB FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC
POPS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
PULLS WELL N OF THE AREA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY...LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.
AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
QUICKER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO OUR SW COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HIGH PCPN
CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING UP AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
EAST NEXT WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
SAT NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGH SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES
WILL REMAIN OFF THE SE CST THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK FRNTL BNDRY LINGERS
OVR THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BUT MORE CLOUDS LATER TNGT
INTO THU AFTN DUE TO THE FRNTL BNDRY AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS.
LWRING CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TO IFR CIGS) AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ESPLY AT
RIC/SBY THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE
W LATE FRI...THEN MOVE ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA INTO THURS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 4 FT FRI. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON SAT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW THEN N AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS ON
THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAKENED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAKING WAY FOR LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING MSLP ALONG
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PUSHING INTO THE CWA. THIS CAN EASILY BE
SEEN BY PLOTTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RH ALONG WITH PRESSURE ON THE
300K ISOSURFACE. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS SHOWN BY THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K ISOSURFACE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER...IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA OVER TO NEWBERRY WILL SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH OR
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
STAGGERED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN WI AROUND THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST SYSTEM FORCING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. ALONG WITH STRONGER FGEN FORCING AT 700MB AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY ALLOWING HEAVY WET SNOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P.
WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA...HELPING TO KEEP A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP THROUGH THE DGZ WITH EPV VALUES AROUND 0 OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER...BUT DEFINITELY HELPING WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN THESE ARE FINER DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
LOW BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ALLOWING THE LOW TO OCCLUDE. AT
THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ASCENDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A TROWAL TYPE SETUP OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WOULD BE UNDER
THE TROWAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 850MB LOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL RATES...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P. MAY END UP SEEING A BIT OF A
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT TRIES
TO SLIP INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SO THE FINAL LOCATIONS OF
THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE A
SIMILAR SNOW TRACK...THEY EACH VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE DETAILS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WHILE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND BRINGING AND END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE LOW AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...A CONSENSUS
APPROACH IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME AND
JUST BE AWARE THAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
A LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BROUGHT IN
COLDER ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS
REDUCED VSBYS AT KIWD AND KCMX TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR AS WINDS
HAVE GUSTED BTWN 25-30 KT. AT KSAW...MVFR CIGS MOVED IN LATE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HRS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRY AIR COMES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTH OF ASHLAND WI...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
TO THE NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST...OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FOR A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS RATHER AMAZING SYSTEM PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A FEW TORNADOES OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAST
EVENING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE EAST. SPRING IN MINNESOTA...GOTTA LOVE
IT. AS OF 3 AM...SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP EXTENDING ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND DOWN INTO THE MOOSE LAKE AREA WHERE THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO BE MELTING SNOW AT UPPER
LEVELS. MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL ABOVE FREEZING AND ARE
GETTING SOME DRIZZLE BUT NOT TOO MUCH OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
I EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE ALONG A NORTHEAST TRACK AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...PUSHING THE WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EAST OUT OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GRADUALLY ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY
SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW BY ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ALL THIS...AS JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING
PRECIP CAN HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE IMPACT ON AREA ROADS NOW THAT THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN WASHED OFF BY THE RAIN. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE REST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
GETTING CONSISTENT SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS
OUT OF THAT AREA OVERNIGHT SO MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME SNOWFALL
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ONCE REPORTS START ROLLING IN LATER THIS
MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
THE FORCING DRAWS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC RISE FOLLOWS ALONG BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. COULD HAVE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW GETS FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT TO
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. WITH ALL
THIS GOING ON...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WE HAVE OUT RIGHT NOW. WITH THE WIND THAT
IS EXPECTED...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW WILL LINGER AFTER THE SNOW
ITSELF ENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MUCH QUIETER WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. THEN...HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY AS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRONG SUNSHINE WE ARE GETTING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
OUR ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON THE DRY
SIDE...BUT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE LATE WEEK WINTER STORM. A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL START TO EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SPREAD
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAN THE GFS. WITH
COORDINATION FROM OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS...AS WELL AS THE WINTER
WEATHER DESK AT THE WPC...WE HAVE RAMPED UP OUR ALLBLEND VALUES
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NON-NCEP SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO MOVE IN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS WHERE EXACTLY
THE HEAVY SNOW AREA WILL BE. QPF IS POINTING TO A VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING A FOOT OR MORE IN A
PORTION OF THE CWA. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT
THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC...IS IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND NW
WI. STILL COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...AS THERE WILL
GENERALLY BE A MORE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO BLSN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20-22Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL SCATTERED OUT
FIRST AT KBRD AND KINL...CLEARING AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AROUND 00Z.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 12 35 18 / 90 0 0 0
INL 26 2 34 12 / 80 0 0 0
BRD 29 9 38 23 / 50 0 0 10
HYR 28 12 40 22 / 80 10 10 10
ASX 28 13 35 18 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ019-
037-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-
020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ011.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Evening adjustments to the going forecast focused on winds as
convection along the advancing front remains well behaved. Winds
behind the front have turned to the west and west northwest but have
maintained there overall speed and gustiness. True cold air behind
the front is lagging well back across Nebraska at this time, so do
not expect the boundary layer to decouple anytime soon as the
pressure gradient will remain rather tight well into the evening. This
will result in near advisory to advisory level winds persisting after
sunset. Winds should begin to relax around 9 to 10 PM this evening as
the tight gradient shifts east behind the surface low moving through
Minnesota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A pretty potent surface low resides just north of the forecast area
in southern Minnesota, however the pressure gradient associated with
that low remains strong over the forecast area, producing strong
southwest winds. Good mixing through the day and a dry southwesterly
component has caused RH values to drop to around 30 percent, with
some very localized areas dropping to the lower 20 percent range,
especially in far western Missouri. Surface observations indicate
that a cold front currently sits across far NW Missouri. This cold
front will continue to push S/SE through the area over the next
several hours, causing winds to switch from the southwest to the
west/northwest overnight. While the initial winds behind the front
will be somewhat gusty, expect a general decline in winds through
the overnight hours. HRRR has been somewhat consistent in producing
some signals for isolated to scattered convection along the cold
front in the 23z to 03z time frame across C Missouri, but given the
weak signal and forecast soundings showing a struggle to get
saturation, will only go out with low end chance PoPs for C Missouri
in the evening time frame. Should a thunderstorm get going along the
front the dry low levels of the atmosphere bring about a sort of
inverted-V sounding. While the overall potential is very low, there
could be an outside chance at a damaging wind gust or two if any
storm gets healthy along the front. Once the cold front clears the
area expect the chances for precipitation to trend toward no chance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
On Tuesday evening, a deepening trough across the western CONUS and
southerly low-level flow off the Gulf will allow for wetter weather
through the remainder of the work week. A slow-moving warm front
will lift into the area and stall somewhere around the vicinity of
I-70, resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to severe, for Tuesday night through Thursday.
A few isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday
evening as the low-level jet begins to increase and the frontal
boundary begins to edge into the region. The most widespread
convection is expected after 06z, and should be elevated in nature.
Hail is possible with any robust elevated storms that develop, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The main challenge for severe potential Wednesday will be the
presence and influence of morning convection across the region.
Without any real feature to sweep out nighttime convection, rain
showers and cloud cover may prevent strong instability from
developing. Shear profiles, particularly along the warm front, will
be very supportive of severe weather, and any storms that develop
will have the potential to be severe. Right now the area near the
warm front looks like it could remain very capped, but any clearing
will likely result in explosive storm development, especially along
and south of I-70.
Model differences increase on Thursday night into Friday with the
position of the surface low and associated front, which will
strongly impact severe weather chances. For now, have trended the
higher PoPs towards the southeastern corner of the CWA, but will
need to adjust as models come better into focus. Morning convection
could again impact instability, but with the strong front sweeping
through, storms are likely along and ahead of the boundary during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
Slightly cooler conditions and quieter weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week. A few showers are possible for
Sunday night into Monday, but significant precipitation is not
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Gusty west-northwesterly winds will cont through about 09Z-10Z before
high pressure begins building into the area and allows them to
subside to around 10kts. Winds during the afternoon will be light and
variable as winds gradually shift from the northwest to the east as
the surface ridge of high pressure moves through the area. Winds will
then pick back up out of the east during the evening between 5-10kts.
VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with scattered to bkn
mid level clouds expected through the afternoon. Tomorrow evening
stratus will begin to stream northward into the area and an ovc deck
btn 4-6kft will move into the terminals. There is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to affect MKC and MCI at the very end of
the TAF period but conds look to hold off until right around 06Z
tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1121 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front as of 0200 UTC was just entering the northwestern
portion of the CWFA. Narrow plume of sfc-based instability has
helped yield some scattered thunderstorms over portions of north-
central and northeastern Missouri this evening. Believe with loss
of daytime heating/nocturnal stabilization these storms should
weaken with time which is supported by latest HRRR guidance. Front
should progress from west to east across the bi-state area with a
slight chance of rain showers.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Initial round of showers and few thunderstorms ahead of next weather
system to continue tracking to the northeast late this afternoon and
diminish. Then as frontal boundary slides through will see another
area if showers and isolated thunderstorms develop and slide east
through region. Coverage will be rather scattered so kept just low
chance/slight chance pops for this evening, drying out after
midnight. Gusty south winds to diminish and veer to the west behind
the frontal boundary. Skies to scatter out towards daybreak with
lows in the low 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Weak high pressure will be centered through the area on Tuesday
morning in the wake of the cold front. The high pressure will weaken
as surface winds veer to more easterly in the afternoon in response
to falling pressure to the west. Meanwhile the front will become
quasi-stationary in the afternoon in response to the development
of wsw flow aloft and will extend along a line from around central
OK near the MO/AR border into the lower OH Valley. The latest model
guidance continues to suggest that showers and maybe thunderstorms
will develop on Tuesday afternoon in the cool sector across
southern/central MO in response to low level moisture convergence,
transport and thetae advection via a strengthening southerly LLJ.
Given the model trends I now have raised pops into the chance
range and they made need to be increased further in future
forecasts once we get a better handle on the location.
The overall scenario from Tuesday Night into Thursday Night has
changed very little and we are expecting a very active period with
a multi-day period featuring episodes of heavy rain and strong-
severe thunderstorms.
Tuesday night marks the beginning with widespread cool sector showers
and thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA, north of
the slowly retreating west-east front. The development and
coverage should really ramp up in the evening in response to
strong forcing/moisture convergence/thetae advection via a veering
south-southwesterly LLJ and as several weak preturbations track
across the region within the wsw flow aloft. A broad zone of
forcing along the terminus of the LLJ suggests indicates there
will be a rather elongated MCS from eastern KS across MO into
western IL with potentially regenerative convection on the western
flank. The east-west front is still forecast to slowly lift
northward during the day on Wednesday with a position just north
of the I-70 corridor by early evening. It still appears that the
area to the north of the front will be quite convectively active
through midday Wednesday with perstent low level forcing via the
swly LLJ. To the south of the front the warm sector will continue
to expand and become rather unstable during the afternoon due to
the combination of moistening/heating and steep mid level lapse
rates. It appears that the CAP will gradually weaken during the
late afternoon which should allow for scattered surface based
development. Coverage of thunderstorms both north of the front in
the cool air and across the warm sector should ramp up on
Wednesday evening as a short wave in the wsw flow aloft provides
forcing and the associated surface wave moves along the front, in
addition to the swly LLJ. There will be a threat of large hail with
storms in the cool air and all severe weather threats are possible
within the warm sector where wswly deep layer shear vectors are
favorable for organized severe storms including supercells.
Persistent convection could also yield a heavy rain threat.
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the period from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with the potential for significant
severe weather. The models are gradually becoming more clustered
with respect to previous differences in the main surface low
position and attendant warm front. A vigorous upper trof will
eject from the Rockies in the southern/central Plains on Thursday
afternoon and into the Mid MS Valley on Thursday night. A mean
solution of the deterministic models and ensembles would have the
main surface low deepening as it tracks from north central OK to
west central MO by 00Z and then into NW IL by 12z Friday. This
solution would have a rather extensive warm sector to the south of
the lifting warm front and ahead of the encroaching cold front.
Conditions appear quite favorable within the warm sector for
discrete supercells during the late afternoon/evening with very
unstable air/SBCAPE above 2000 J/KG and deep layer shear vectors
of 40-60 kts aligned perpendicular to the forcing/boundary. As the
front and upper trof translate eastward on Thursday night the
forcing and shear vector orientation suggests upscale growth into
a severe QLCS.
We will begin highlighting severe weather and heavy rain potential
in our HWO and graphical products.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front extending from a surface low over srn MN south through
UIN and COU will move southeastward through the St. Louis metro
area around 06z Tuesday. It appears on radar that the showers/storms
along this front have dissipated. A narrow band of high based
cumulus clouds along the front were also dissipating. The low
level clouds across IA south of the surface low should remain
north of UIN late tonight. The southwesterly winds at COU and the
St. Louis metro area will veer around to a wly direction after
fropa like they recently did in UIN. These wly winds will become
relatively light Tuesday afternoon with weak surface ridging over
the area. Mid- high level clouds will increase Tuesday afternoon
with low- mid level warm air advection and an approaching warm
front from the south. Could not rule out scattered showers and
storms in COU area late Tuesday afternoon, but the better chance
of rain should occur Tuesday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and a few storms along the front have
all dissipated this evening. There still may be patchy vfr, low-
mid level clouds until around 08z Tuesday in the STL area. The swly
surface winds will veer around to a wly direction late tonight
after fropa. The surface wind will be fairly light and variable
Tuesday afternoon, then become ely Tuesday evening with an
approaching warm front moving nwd through srn MO. Mid-high level
clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon with the cloud
ceiling lowering Tuesday evening and showers/thunderstorms moving
into the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
846 PM MDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT EARLY
AS THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW HAS MOVED INTO ND...AND THERE WILL BE
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT IS WEAKENING AND HEADING TO
THE EAST...AND WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION-AIDED SNOW ON ITS WEST SIDE
FROM NEAR FORSYTH TO WYOLA AS OF 02 UTC IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING PER
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR ECHOES ARE
ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING. UPSTREAM...CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BUT INCREASING STABILITY
THANKS TO A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW THOSE
TO WANE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN PLAY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL MT UNTIL 06 UTC TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT ACTIVITY AND FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MT ALL NIGHT CLOSER TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM 06 TO 15
UTC IN SOUTHEASTERN AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BASICALLY FROM
BILLINGS EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
IF THEY ARE NEAR 10 KT AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN FOG COULD BE
A HARD SELL. HOWEVER...THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE SHOWN AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AND THE RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HYSHAM TO MILES CITY. WE THUS WANTED TO
GET A FOOT IN THE DOOR ON THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...WHICH COULD END
UP BEING DENSE IN AREAS IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTY. PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH TROWAL CONTINUES TO IMPACT AN AREA FROM MILES CITY
TO HARDIN...BILLINGS AND OUR SW FOOTHILLS...BUT TOPS ARE STARTING
TO WARM IN THIS AREA AS THE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...AND
PCPN IS OVERALL BECOMING LIGHTER. HEAVIEST CONVERGENT BAND IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THRU BIG HORN COUNTY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE...THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THIS EVENING. SO
ALTHOUGH DRY SLOTTING HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW TO AN END IN SUCH
PLACES AS POWDER RIVER AND SOUTHERN CARTER COUNTIES...THESE AREAS
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE WRAP AROUND PCPN OVER THE COMING HOURS.
FURTHER WEST...THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN
COMING OUT OF CENTRAL MT...SO AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS... WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
PLACE FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT HANDLE THEIR DEMISE. WET ROADS
WILL ICE UP AFTER SUNSET SO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS HERE EVEN AFTER
THE PCPN ENDS. AS FOR BILLINGS...WE ARE JUST ABOUT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SNOW BAND NOW SO EXPECT NO MORE ACCUMULATION...THOUGH
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THIS
EVENING.
TROF WILL KICK EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR FAR EAST PER
SHALLOW INSTABILITY WHICH JUST TOUCHES -10C. ALSO...HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO DESPITE THE RIDGE WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MTNS/FOOTHILLS BY AFTN...SUCH AS WE ARE
SEEING IN WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID TODAY...WITH A LITTLE ASCENT
OFFERED BY A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
FOR NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING INCREASES FRIDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
TEMPS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S. NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE W/ VERY MODEST SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR
WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE AFTER 00Z ACROSS OUR
WEST HALF AS FRONTOGENESIS AND QG FORCING INCREASE...AND HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWER ELEVATION TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE WESTERN
MTNS WILL RECEIVE A LITTLE SNOWFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS IN
STORE...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO AROUND NORMAL SO SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK IN BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONGER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
WESTERN MONTANA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER TEMPERATURES
BEING AROUND NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...READINGS WILL WARM ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS EXPERIENCING SPRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS SHOWERS CLEAR...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AREA MOUNTAINS...WHERE OBSCURATIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT KBIL EAST...AS
SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/044 029/056 038/055 036/054 035/055 035/061 036/065
21/B 01/B 32/W 34/W 22/W 11/B 00/U
LVM 022/048 029/058 037/053 039/050 033/055 033/063 035/067
22/W 12/W 52/W 34/W 22/W 11/B 10/U
HDN 024/045 026/057 034/059 035/056 033/057 033/063 036/067
31/B 11/B 22/W 34/W 22/W 11/B 00/U
MLS 022/040 025/053 032/055 034/053 033/053 032/060 034/064
31/B 00/B 22/W 23/W 22/W 21/B 00/U
4BQ 022/040 024/051 033/058 033/053 032/054 032/061 033/065
32/J 10/U 11/B 23/W 33/W 21/B 10/U
BHK 020/037 020/046 028/055 031/052 031/052 028/057 030/063
42/J 00/U 11/B 22/W 22/W 21/B 00/U
SHR 022/042 024/054 030/055 031/051 030/054 030/060 032/064
51/B 10/U 12/W 24/W 33/W 21/B 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WHITEWATER TO WINNET AREA AND IN THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND GLENDIVE MAY PERSIST THROUGH 17Z,
AT WHICH POINT HRRR GUIDANCE HAS RH DECLINING AND THE FOG BURNING-
OFF.
SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA LED TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
THIS MORNING...MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH WHICH HAD
LIMITED SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE SNOW IS FAIRLY DEEP IN SOME AREAS AND WILL NOT
LIKELY MELT DOWN TO THE GROUND TODAY.
WITH A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA
TODAY...MODELS HAVE ONLY THE FAINTEST HINT OF ANY PPT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A MODEST DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH A TOTAL OF AN INCH OR 2 OF NEW SNOW. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY ZONAL FLOW IS SQUARELY IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
SANDWICHED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TODAY. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR CALM WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
OUR CWA.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE WESTERN STATES
REGION. THE EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ANOTHER PASS OF
SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THAT AREA AND THE EC MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND GENEROUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS PULL BACK FROM THAT ON COVERAGE AND
PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPERIENCED BY
THOSE IN THAT REGION...FELT IT WAS OK TO LEAN A BIT MORE ON THIS
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND START MENTIONING IT IN THE HWO.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE WEST CUTS OF
THE PRECIP AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM SOME MORE.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.
PERIOD OPENS WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING WARMER AIR EAST ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND THIS
IS THE MAIN PERIOD OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OF THE FORECAST.
VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT LESS THAN 15KTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1003 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
THE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB
TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW LIFTS INTO THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS BUT IS BACKING OFF ON THE QPF ACROSS ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. THE RAP IS DRIER THAN THE NAM THRU 19Z. THE
GEM REGIONAL IS THE NEXT MODEL TO COME IN...THEN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT THE PROSPECT FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 83 APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING. THE LATER MODEL RUNS OF THE GEM...GFS...ECM AS WELL AS
THE RAP WHICH COMES IN ONCE PER HOUR FOR AN 18 HOUR FORECAST WILL
RESOLVE THIS FORECAST PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
AT FIRST GLANCE...THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE SNOW FORECAST BUT IT IS ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING VERY STRONG FORCING INTO NERN COLO. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST LEFT OF THE H700MB
LOW WHICH ALL MODELS MOVE THRU SCNTL AND NERN NEB THURSDAY. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK EXCEPT THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL INDICATED IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO
SWRN NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST USES A BIT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH
HAS LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE SNOW FORECAST SINCE IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER 06Z. THE GEM...NAM...GFS AND SREF WERE
USED FOR QPF WITH A SIMPLE 10 TO 1 RATIO FOR SNOW. THIS TIGHTENED UP
THE SNOW BAND BUT ONLY PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES IN HOLT COUNTY.
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRACK 50 OR SO MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO ONEILL THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
SUSTAINED 25 MPH SFC WINDS DEVELOPING AT 16Z ACROSS SWRN NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT BARRIER JET SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GEM.
THOSE MODELS STRENGTHEN THAT JET FROM 35KT AT 15Z TO 55KT BY 03Z
WHICH IS A MODELS WAY OF SAYING BLIZZARD. BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE HIGHEST POP AREAS.
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY AROUND 10 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAKES FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPED
AND STRONGER SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THESE
MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LAST THREE
SYSTEMS...AND HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
LATEST SYSTEM. A CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL INDICATES A GOOD
AGEOSTROPHIC THERMAL CIRCULATION...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS
POINTS TO A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING...LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME OTHER FACTORS /SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION/ THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN OVERALL LESS SNOW. ANOTHER
REASON TO SIDE WITH THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNS OF A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING. IF THE
SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES AS FORECASTED...THEN LOW VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THIS EVENING...WITH FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO IOWA. COLDER AIR THEN COMES
IN FROM MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT ENDS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA THOUGH WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 06Z IN
MUCH OF THE WEST.
THEN...AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALSO...RETURN FLOW BRINGS A TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THOUGH
THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL FOLLOW A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NEARLY
SATURATED AIR THROUGH A LAYER OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY. THE LIFT IS
NOT REAL STRONG IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UNDERLYING NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM...SO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.
FINALLY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT SHOULD BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KANW. ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ007-009-010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
651 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
AT FIRST GLANCE...THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE SNOW FORECAST BUT IT IS ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING VERY STRONG FORCING INTO NERN COLO. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST LEFT OF THE H700MB
LOW WHICH ALL MODELS MOVE THRU SCNTL AND NERN NEB THURSDAY. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK EXCEPT THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL INDICATED IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO
SWRN NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST USES A BIT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH
HAS LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE SNOW FORECAST SINCE IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER 06Z. THE GEM...NAM...GFS AND SREF WERE
USED FOR QPF WITH A SIMPLE 10 TO 1 RATIO FOR SNOW. THIS TIGHTENED UP
THE SNOW BAND BUT ONLY PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES IN HOLT COUNTY.
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRACK 50 OR SO MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO ONEILL THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
SUSTAINED 25 MPH SFC WINDS DEVELOPING AT 16Z ACROSS SWRN NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT BARRIER JET SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GEM.
THOSE MODELS STRENGTHEN THAT JET FROM 35KT AT 15Z TO 55KT BY 03Z
WHICH IS A MODELS WAY OF SAYING BLIZZARD. BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE HIGHEST POP AREAS.
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY AROUND 10 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAKES FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPED
AND STRONGER SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THESE
MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LAST THREE
SYSTEMS...AND HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
LATEST SYSTEM. A CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL INDICATES A GOOD
AGEOSTROPHIC THERMAL CIRCULATION...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS
POINTS TO A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING...LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME OTHER FACTORS /SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION/ THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN OVERALL LESS SNOW. ANOTHER
REASON TO SIDE WITH THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNS OF A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING. IF THE
SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES AS FORECASTED...THEN LOW VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THIS EVENING...WITH FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO IOWA. COLDER AIR THEN COMES
IN FROM MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT ENDS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA THOUGH WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 06Z IN
MUCH OF THE WEST.
THEN...AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALSO...RETURN FLOW BRINGS A TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THOUGH
THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL FOLLOW A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NEARLY
SATURATED AIR THROUGH A LAYER OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY. THE LIFT IS
NOT REAL STRONG IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UNDERLYING NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM...SO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.
FINALLY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT SHOULD BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KANW. ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ007-009-010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
842 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ON MSAS OUTPUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE EXISTS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER THAT AREA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW...
BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS AND MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE RAP DID
QUITE WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY...AND WHILE THE LATEST GFS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST SEEMS VERY HIGH AND THE
LATEST HRRR WRF KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION A FEW SETS OF COUNTIES NORTH
INTO VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB
DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM.
HOWEVER...AS A 500MB JETLET AROUND 40KT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERALL...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING...K INDICES INCREASING
TO AROUND 30...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.25 INCHES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MOVE OFF WELL TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HENCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRECIP/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE
SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUR
EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY SHOWING IT
ERODE BY AROUND 00Z/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS MAKES IT TO OUR REGION...ANY MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHERE THE ARRIVAL TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AS
THE AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED...THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THEN OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUCH...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SOME LEVEL OF CAD SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD
STAY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF THE CAD HOLDS IN PLACE AS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT... BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS INVOF THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT
AND BRIEF. THUS... WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
... WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH RANGE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BSD/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
BASED UPON WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 06 UTC...HAVE ALLOWED THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE ON
TIME AS VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE. ACROSS THE FRESH
SNOWPACK OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS HAVE OR ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 5 TO 10
BELOW RANGE GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 06 UTC. WIND CHILLS
TO 20 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING. AREA RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW NOW RESIDES FROM FOSTER THROUGH STUTSMAN...LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THOSE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING THROUGH 06Z.
EXCEPT FOR THE HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO ALLOW THE NEXT PIECE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE
ON TIME AT 00Z. THE REMAINING PART OF THE WARNING PRIMARILY COVERS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND REPORTS STILL SUGGEST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...SO
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS INVOLVED TRENDS AND IMPACTS OF ONGOING
BLIZZARD. INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN BISMARCK AND FARGO WAS JUST CLOSED
DUE TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION VISIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SNOWFALL COINCIDENT WITH DEFORMATION
ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ND. SEVERAL LIGHTING STRIKES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING 1
TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GRADUALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALLOWING SOME COUNTIES TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW
CENTER...CURRENTLY OVER SW MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
SOUTHEAST AREA BY 06Z.
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND CHILLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE ONGOING WINTER STORM. COUPLED WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD FOR EARLY APRIL...LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANYWHERE FROM ZERO TO THE MID TEENS ABOVE.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MAINLY
SNOW SPREADING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS THUS FAR NOT IN AGREEMENT...HOWEVER A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRINGS A SHOT OF 1-3 INCHES SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. MODELS HINT AT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN BLOWING SNOW AT KJMS BY
07-08 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE KDIK TAF FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...ACOOP/NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
953 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING`S FORECASTS WERE SENT
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 930 AM PDT THIS MORNING. THESE UPDATES WERE
MOSTLY RELATED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY VALID THROUGH NOON PDT
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME UPDATES WERE MADE FOR OTHER AREAS TO
ADJUST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN AND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL OVER HARNEY, CROOK, DESCHUTES, AND NORTHEASTERN LAKE
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS. REPORTS AND ROAD CAMERAS
THIS MORNING INDICATE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE, THOUGH THERE WAS ONE REPORT OF 7 INCHES AT HOGBACK
SUMMIT JUST SOUTH OF ALKALI LAKE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS IN THE 20S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE LAST
1 TO 2 HOURS AT RILEY ON HIGHWAY 20 JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH
OF ALKALI LAKE ON HIGHWAY 395 AND ALONG HIGHWAY 20 IN LAKE COUNTY.
THUS, WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
IN THIS NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION RATES DIMINISHING AND TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHER LONGER RANGE NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR, THOUGH LESS DIMINISHMENT OF THE
SNOWFALL. ALL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH
LAKE COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. WE`LL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW WELL THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND IF ADDITIONAL SNOW
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL COL AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND SMALL
HAIL OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE SISKIYOUS AND AREAS IN AND
NEAR CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...
HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED THE FORMATION OF LOWER CEILINGS ON
THE EAST SIDE...BUT CLEARER SKIES ON THE WEST SIDE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR IFR CEILINGS TO FORM IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING AT
KMFR AND KRBG. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
16 UTC...AT WHICH TIME VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE
AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALSO...EXPECT TERRAIN TO BECOME
MOSTLY OBSCURED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND THE KLAMATH BASIN COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY FROM RUN-TO-RUN CONCERNING
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AND DESPITE THIS
UNCERTAINTY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WITH A STRONG RIDGE
NEARBY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FIRMLY IN THE REGION. -BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN OREGON COAST CONTINUES
TO SEND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MODOC COUNTY. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
AROUND DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WHICH
DOES NOT OCCUR THAT OFTEN. THE COLD POOL AT 500 HPA STAYS OFFSHORE
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONE OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THIS COLD POOL TO ROTATE INTO CURRY COUNTY
THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AREA EXTENDING INTO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, BUT AS WE SEE MORE SURFACE HEATING, EXPECT SHOWERS TO
PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS BUT POPS COULD GO EVEN LOWER IF THE RIDGING
SHOWS UP STRONGER IN THE NEXT RUN. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVER
WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AS A
RESULT, THIS NEXT FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG RAIN/SNOW
PRODUCER, AND MAY JUST BE A HIGH POPS/LOW QPF SYSTEM.
BEYOND THURSDAY THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE QUIET WITH
LONG WAVE RIDGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH BROAD RIDGING THAT MAY ALLOW HIGH
CLOUDS TO RIDE OVER. QUICK GLANCE UPSTREAM SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING THIS TROUGH INLAND AROUND THE
MIDDLE TO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
BTL/BPN/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
951 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN AR AND WEST
TN IS JUST ABOUT READY TO EXIT INTO KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS
AS A RESULT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY EAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS OTRW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
TONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS LIFT. THE
CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATIVE OF THE UNFOCUSED SURFACE LIFT SHOWING
MANY SMALL SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SUSTAINED FOR MORE THAN A FEW
VOLUME SCANS. A 35-40 LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT BUT SURFACE FOCUS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS/MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY 06Z...WE SHOULD SEE A MORE
RESPECTABLE 40-50KT LLJ...BUT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE THE
LACKING INGREDIENT.
ADDITIONAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AS A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE MAIN
TROUGH MAINTAINS A NEUTRAL TILT...ALTHOUGH AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE
THAT SMALLER IMPULSES ATTAINING A NEGATIVE TILT ROTATING AROUND
THE TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD HELP VENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HELPING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. MODEL INSTABILITY /ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS/ BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET STORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z IF NOT
EARLIER. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION GETS GOING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING...THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED.
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
ARE ALL THREATS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
TIMING OF THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRICKY
AS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR
BY MIDDAY AND AFTER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IRREGARDLESS OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKELY.
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE LINE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WOULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...AND POSSIBLY THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL EXCEEDING TWO INCHES. FLOODING AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT AS OF NOW GUIDANCE
HAS SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-23 MPH...SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER MONDAY
AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING IN A RE ENFORCING SHOT OF DIRER AIR...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.
CURRENT VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TO
IFR LEVELS BY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 65 79 61 70 / 30 80 90 10
MKL 64 77 61 69 / 30 70 90 20
JBR 64 77 56 65 / 60 80 90 10
TUP 63 79 63 74 / 20 50 90 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
629 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WE ARE WATCHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
CAREFULLY AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS APPROACH FROM
NORTHWEST TN. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED IN WEAKLEY COUNTY. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED SHEAR OVER NW
TN THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS HEATING IS LOST
WITH SUNSET...ACTIVITY SHOULD ALL DROP BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING INTO THE MID
STATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF THROUGH THE NIGHT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND RESIDES ACROSS KY. DEWPOINTS
ARE GENERALLY NOW INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. RADAR IS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW BUT WE ARE WATCHING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN MS AND NE AR. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRANSFER OF ENERGY WITHIN THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. HRRR CONCURS WITH DEVELOPMENT OVERSPREADING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE REASONABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SWILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING OR PRE MIDNIGHT HOURS. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AS THE BETTER VORTICITY CENTERS ARE
WELL EAST OF THE MID STATE BY 12Z.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...INSTABILITY...MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALL BE ON THE INCREASE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL COME INTO PLAY...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND 16Z AND
BEYOND. AT THAT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IN THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG TSTMS AND
MAYBE EVEN 1 OR 2 SEVERE STORMS. CAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG AND COMBINE
WITH A 40 KT 850 MB FLOW WITHIN A SEMI-IMPRESSIVE OMEGA SHIELD. MEAN
MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM ABOUT 240
DEG. ALSO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT
I DO NOT FORESEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP. EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...PREFRONTAL FORCING WILL AID WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. NOTE THAT THE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MIDDLE TN. ORGANIZATION
DEFICIENCIES OF OMEGA FIELDS COUPLED WITH LOWER CAPES AND WEAKER JET
DYNAMICS MAY IMPEDE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FROM REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. TYPICALLY...THE 50KT+ LLJ SPEEDS WILL EXIST SIMULTANEOUSLY
WITH WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS. WE JUST ARE NOT SEEING THAT
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THAT SAID...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S WITH SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE 12Z SHOWALTER VALUES CANNOT BE
DISMISSED. IN THE ZONES...I WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS.
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL LOOK TO BE 2
NICE DAYS AS WE ENJOY A BRIEFLY DRY PATTERN. BUT...THIS WILL NOT
LAST AS A SFC LOW IX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF AND TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID STATE. FURTHERMORE...ONCE THE LOW TRACK NE
OF OUR AREA...AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
TSTM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS PATTERN.
BUT...THAT SFC LOW MIGHT TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD
MEAN A FEW MORE TSTMS.
AS FOR TEMPS...IN THE SHORT TERM...MILD AND ON THE HUMID SIDE
THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH. IN THE EXTENDED...TEMPS LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. BUT...THAT COULD CHANGE AND WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
21
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/
UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL UPDATE
TO RAISE POPS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/
SOME CLOUDY SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD TO
DECREASE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT IS IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND BOOT HEEL MISSOURI. HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR TONIGHT.
A WEAK HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MID-SOUTH DRY FOR
TUESDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WE
CONTINUE TO STAY WARM...HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH EXACT POSITIONS...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN THE MID-SOUTH. MOST THINGS FAVOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER...LOTS OF MOISTURE--ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMPARED CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A GOOD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY. THE ONE NEGATIVE IS THE LACK OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVENTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND ON FRIDAY.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SHRA WAS DISSIPATING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR FSM...THROUGH
NORTHWEST AR. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE INTO THE JBR VCNTY
BY 12Z...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 13Z OR SO AT
MEM...BUT LIKELIHOOD TOO LOW TO WARRANT TEMPO AT THIS TIME. LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE OUTBOUND PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WINDS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE 3 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE
FIRMING UP ACROSS BAILEY...HOCKLEY AND LYNN COUNTIES...HEADING
EAST. MEANWHILE A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE NRN PERMIAN
BASIN...SEWD TO NEAR SWEETWATER...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE IT WAS RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. UNDERNEATH A
SWATH OF CIRRUS...SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR
SWEETWATER...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS BUILDING AS MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
FLOW NWWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SHORT-RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ MAY REACH STONEWALL COUNTY BY
22-23 UTC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...WE DO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS A SMALL
SPEED-MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE W-SW. WHILE
SB-CAPES APPROACHING 2K J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS
OR SO SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE THINK THAT GIVEN THAT
EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM INITIATION MAY BE MOST FAVORED IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STONEWALL AND PERHAPS KING COUNTIES...THE THREAT OF SVR
WX WILL BE MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE ANY T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY INTENSITY PRETTY
QUICKLY. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SMALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. TONIGHT...THE RAP AND THE
HRRR ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN DEPICTING THE DRYLINE
RETREATING BACK INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL SPLNS...WHICH COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG OR THIN LOW STRATUS TO THE AREA...WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS IDEA. FOR NOW...WE/VE
HINTED AT A FARTHER NWWD MOISTURE RETURN BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT
COMPLETELY...AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS. IT
WILL BE MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ALSO
SOME LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE GETS TONIGHT...IT WILL
BE READILY SCOURED OUT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FACE OF INCREASING STRONG
AND DEEP SW FLOW. THE DRYLINE MAY STILL HUG OUR ERN BORDER AROUND
NOON-TIME...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFF WELL EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
FROM A MODERATELY UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME TO A MORE STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LONGWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST.
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOCUSED ON TWO PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS LATER
THIS WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONE FOR THURSDAY AND THE OTHER BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORMER PROMISES TO SWING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY COMPLETE
WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT THE STRONGEST 850-700MB WINDS
ARE FORTUNATELY SHOWN TO TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
BEFORE PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING A WEAK
POLAR FRONT BY SUNSET.
AFTER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE ON FRIDAY...THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH SHOWS
SOME PROMISE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY SATURDAY AS IT SPURS
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION COMPLETE WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LL DEWPOINTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
INSPIRING GIVEN THE MODIFIED FETCH OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING THU
NIGHT/S FRONT...AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC MOISTENING AND LIFT FROM
300-310K COULD SET UP FAVORABLY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP
LOOKS TO FAVOR A LOW CAPE AND MODERATE/STRONG SHEAR SCENARIO...SO
WE/LL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THESE DECEPTIVELY
LOW CAPE AIR MASSES CAN GARNER ROTATING STORMS WITH SUCH FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND LIFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALIVE ALL AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE SCALING THESE BACK FROM WEST-TO-EAST ON
SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO BE REINFORCED
THEREAFTER AS WE TRANSITION INTO NWLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY
ELSEWHERE.
THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING EASTWARD.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE CWA AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11
AM TO 10 PM.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL WILDFIRE
THREAT NOW APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER INDICATED GIVEN
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WHICH RARELY COINCIDE WITH ACTIVE WILDFIRE
DAYS. NONETHELESS...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
20-FT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WARRANT KEEPING THE FIRE WX WATCH INTACT
AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 75 38 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 43 80 41 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 45 81 43 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 44 80 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 82 46 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 47 79 47 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 48 81 46 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 53 88 48 77 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 86 49 76 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 90 50 80 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
33/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1238 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Through midnight expect VFR conditions to prevail. Winds will be
gusty out of the south this afternoon, which will continue through
much of the TAF period. The southerly winds will keep the low level
moisture in place, and low clouds will develop again tonight. Expect
MVFR CIGS to persist into tomorrow morning, much like this morning.
Junction, Sonora, and Brady will likely see the clouds begin to lift
late in the morning, again much like today. There is a slight chance
of rain through tomorrow though no confidence in any impacts at the
TAF sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings to dominate West Central Texas, along
and south of a line from Sonora to Brownwood, through mid morning.
The latest satellite imagery indicate stratus has returned to the
northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland this morning. The
latest RUC indicates stratus will advance to near a Sonora to
Brownwood line, before mixing breaks this low-cloud deck. By mid
morning, expect gusty south surface winds and VFR conditions to
dominate West Central Texas. Overnight tonight, stratus will again
return to West Central Texas, and by this time tomorrow, plan for
MVFR to dominate.
Huber
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening
across some West Central Texas locations. A surface dryline will mix
east today to near a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona line. Model
forecast soundings, along and east of this line, indicate CAPEs in
the 2000 to 2500 J/Kg range by 21Z this afternoon. Plus, the cap
doesn`t look like it will be as strong as models were indicating
this time yesterday. Thus, any thunderstorms which do develop may be
severe, mainly along and east of the dryline this afternoon and
evening, and especially north and east of a line from Sweetwater to
Brownwood, where low-level moisture convergence will be greatest
along and near the dryline. The primary threats will be large hail
and damaging winds.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
PoPs are problematic for Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The main upper trough will move across the Great Basin and
into the Southwestern states on Wednesday, then track east
into the central/southern Rockies Wednesday night. The upper
trough will lift out to the northeast into the central Plains
with a closed low on Thursday. A sharpened dryline is expected to
mix east across roughly the western half of West Central Texas
Wednesday afternoon. Whether convergence along the dryline and
lift can be enough to break the cap looks uncertain. The model
moisture and PoP fields look anemic. A favorable factor, however,
would be if an embedded disturbance in the southwest flow aloft
can enter our area during peak heating, as the 00Z GFS shows.
Continuing with slight chance PoP for now across the area roughly
east of a Haskell to San Angelo to Ozona line. With the strong
instability and favorable vertical wind shear progged, any storms
which develop could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. The dryline is expected to make a partial
retreat into our western and northwestern counties Wednesday
night, before being overtaken by a Pacific front early Thursday
morning. The Pacific front will surge east across our area
Thursday morning. With this and the approach of the main upper
trough, have low PoP for showers and thunderstorms across much of
our area Wednesday night, and across much of the eastern half
Thursday morning.
The other concern for Thursday is an enhanced fire weather threat,
addressed in the Fire Weather section below. As the aforementioned
upper system lifts out to our north on Thursday, the associated
dry slot will overspread West Central Texas during the afternoon.
With this setup, deep mixing will promote rather windy conditions
with an intrusion of very dry air from the west. Given the
westerly low-level flow and associated downsloping, going with
highs 2-3 degrees above MOS guidance on Thursday.
A secondary cold front from the north will push south across West
Central Texas Thursday night. Dry and cooler conditions will follow
on Friday. Temperatures look pleasant for Saturday as well, when
east winds will become southeast as surface high pressure ridge
axis shifts east into the Mississippi Valley.
The forecast becomes problematic again with rain chances for the
latter half of the weekend and first part of next week. The 00Z
GFS and ECMWF continue to show noteworthy differences. While both
models show an upper trough moving across the Southwestern states
and approaching Texas, the GFS has the trough axis shifting east
of our area on Sunday afternoon, then has our area in an amplified
northwest flow aloft. The ECMWF has energy digging down the back
side of the trough, with the setup favoring a better (and much
needed) rain chance for our area developing Monday and continuing
through Tuesday. Given this uncertainty at the end of the long-
term, however, have not added PoPs yet for early next week.
19
FIRE WEATHER...
Look for elevated fire weather conditions to develop again this
afternoon, as a surface dryline mixes east across West Central
Texas. Locations mainly west of a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line will have the most elevated fire weather conditions. There,
afternoon minimum relative humidity will range from the upper teens
to around 20; plus, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground level
will be from the south around 15 mph.
On Wednesday, watch for elevated fire weather conditions to develop
again across more of West Central Texas, as a dryline mixes farther
east. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will drop into the 10 to
20 percent range, mainly along and west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Ozona line. There, fire weather conditions will again be the
greatest. In addition, winds at 20 feet above ground level will
again be around 15 mph, along and west of this line.
On Thursday, critical fire weather conditions may develop across
much of West Central Texas, as afternoon minimum relative humidity
drops to a range from around 10 to 20 percent. Plus, an approaching
cold front will push a surface trough east across West Central
Texas. Behind this trough, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground
level may range from 20 to 30 mph for much of West Central Texas
north of the Interstate 10 corridor, mainly during the afternoon.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 67 90 59 85 47 / 20 20 20 10 10
San Angelo 68 91 59 85 49 / 10 20 20 10 10
Junction 67 87 63 86 51 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Reimer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings to dominate West Central Texas, along
and south of a line from Sonora to Brownwood, through mid morning.
The latest satellite imagery indicate stratus has returned to the
northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland this morning. The
latest RUC indicates stratus will advance to near a Sonora to
Brownwood line, before mixing breaks this low-cloud deck. By mid
morning, expect gusty south surface winds and VFR conditions to
dominate West Central Texas. Overnight tonight, stratus will again
return to West Central Texas, and by this time tomorrow, plan for
MVFR to dominate.
Huber
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening
across some West Central Texas locations. A surface dryline will mix
east today to near a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona line. Model
forecast soundings, along and east of this line, indicate CAPEs in
the 2000 to 2500 J/Kg range by 21Z this afternoon. Plus, the cap
doesn`t look like it will be as strong as models were indicating
this time yesterday. Thus, any thunderstorms which do develop may be
severe, mainly along and east of the dryline this afternoon and
evening, and especially north and east of a line from Sweetwater to
Brownwood, where low-level moisture convergence will be greatest
along and near the dryline. The primary threats will be large hail
and damaging winds.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
PoPs are problematic for Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The main upper trough will move across the Great Basin and
into the Southwestern states on Wednesday, then track east
into the central/southern Rockies Wednesday night. The upper
trough will lift out to the northeast into the central Plains
with a closed low on Thursday. A sharpened dryline is expected to
mix east across roughly the western half of West Central Texas
Wednesday afternoon. Whether convergence along the dryline and
lift can be enough to break the cap looks uncertain. The model
moisture and PoP fields look anemic. A favorable factor, however,
would be if an embedded disturbance in the southwest flow aloft
can enter our area during peak heating, as the 00Z GFS shows.
Continuing with slight chance PoP for now across the area roughly
east of a Haskell to San Angelo to Ozona line. With the strong
instability and favorable vertical wind shear progged, any storms
which develop could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. The dryline is expected to make a partial
retreat into our western and northwestern counties Wednesday
night, before being overtaken by a Pacific front early Thursday
morning. The Pacific front will surge east across our area
Thursday morning. With this and the approach of the main upper
trough, have low PoP for showers and thunderstorms across much of
our area Wednesday night, and across much of the eastern half
Thursday morning.
The other concern for Thursday is an enhanced fire weather threat,
addressed in the Fire Weather section below. As the aforementioned
upper system lifts out to our north on Thursday, the associated
dry slot will overspread West Central Texas during the afternoon.
With this setup, deep mixing will promote rather windy conditions
with an intrusion of very dry air from the west. Given the
westerly low-level flow and associated downsloping, going with
highs 2-3 degrees above MOS guidance on Thursday.
A secondary cold front from the north will push south across West
Central Texas Thursday night. Dry and cooler conditions will follow
on Friday. Temperatures look pleasant for Saturday as well, when
east winds will become southeast as surface high pressure ridge
axis shifts east into the Mississippi Valley.
The forecast becomes problematic again with rain chances for the
latter half of the weekend and first part of next week. The 00Z
GFS and ECMWF continue to show noteworthy differences. While both
models show an upper trough moving across the Southwestern states
and approaching Texas, the GFS has the trough axis shifting east
of our area on Sunday afternoon, then has our area in an amplified
northwest flow aloft. The ECMWF has energy digging down the back
side of the trough, with the setup favoring a better (and much
needed) rain chance for our area developing Monday and continuing
through Tuesday. Given this uncertainty at the end of the long-
term, however, have not added PoPs yet for early next week.
19
FIRE WEATHER...
Look for elevated fire weather conditions to develop again this
afternoon, as a surface dryline mixes east across West Central
Texas. Locations mainly west of a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line will have the most elevated fire weather conditions. There,
afternoon minimum relative humidity will range from the upper teens
to around 20; plus, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground level
will be from the south around 15 mph.
On Wednesday, watch for elevated fire weather conditions to develop
again across more of West Central Texas, as a dryline mixes farther
east. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will drop into the 10 to
20 percent range, mainly along and west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Ozona line. There, fire weather conditions will again be the
greatest. In addition, winds at 20 feet above ground level will
again be around 15 mph, along and west of this line.
On Thursday, critical fire weather conditions may develop across
much of West Central Texas, as afternoon minimum relative humidity
drops to a range from around 10 to 20 percent. Plus, an approaching
cold front will push a surface trough east across West Central
Texas. Behind this trough, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground
level may range from 20 to 30 mph for much of West Central Texas
north of the Interstate 10 corridor, mainly during the afternoon.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 67 90 59 85 / 20 20 20 20 10
San Angelo 92 68 91 59 85 / 10 10 20 20 10
Junction 89 67 87 63 86 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Huber/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
949 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
DRY AIR KEEPING THE NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. WILL DELAY ONSET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT/2AM.
00Z NAM STILL BRINGS IN TWO TENTHES OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING FAR EAST DUE TO COLD FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH DRY DEWPOINTS EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY
ALLOW FOR ADDITION COOLING.
03Z HRRR HAS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE NAM LATE TONIGHT.
TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD THE HRRR.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
DRY AIR KEEPING THE NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. WILL DELAY ONSET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT/2AM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING FAR EAST DUE TO COLD FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH DRY DEWPOINTS EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY
ALLOW FOR ADDITION COOLING.
VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF A MADISON
TO MILWAUKEE LINE.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THIS WILL BE OUR WETTEST...MOST UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT OF ERN NEB/KS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW BY THE TIME
IT GETS HERE. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS INTENSE AND ROTATES
THROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...ENHANCING THE DEEP VERTICAL
MOTION AND OMEGA FIELDS.
THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS WELL...INTENSIFYING AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE NAM/GFS AND TWO CANADIAN MODELS ROLL IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WI...WHILE THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST THAN THE OTHERS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL LIQUID EVEN
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 33/34 UP IN THE SHEBOYGAN/FOND
DU LAC AREAS THU NGT/FRI MORN. WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA AS JUST A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES COULD INTRODUCE A
FREEZING RAIN PROBLEM THERE. THE MORE SOUTHEAST SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER AND RAISES THIS CONCERN. BUT...THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE COLDER TEMPS AND ANY WINTRY MIX TO
THE NORTH.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME
SKINNY CAPE SHOWING UP ON THE SOUNDINGS...SO CAN/T RULE OUT
THUNDER THU NGT.
WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP DIMINISH FOR A TIME FRIDAY AS THE DRY
SLOT ROTATES IN WITH THE LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL WORK BACK IN DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THAT NW COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BUT WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT ANY PROBLEMATIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.
LOOK FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
LIGHT SNOW JUST BEFORE IT ENDS. AGAIN...NO ISSUES EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AND QUICKLY BEGINS TO
EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...COOLEST NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BY SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY NORTHWEST OF MADISON...BUT THIS
SHOULDN/T RUIN ANYBODYS DAY. HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM UP ACROSS INDIANA ON MONDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE
COLD AIR SOURCE WILL BE WEAK AND THIS ONE SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
TRICKY SITUATION WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOOKS LIKE A COLD
RAIN AT THE TAF SITES WITH FREEZING RAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS.
LOTS OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST FROM POLAR HIGH
OVER ONTARIO AND THAT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CERTAINLY COULD GO TO
IFR IF NAM IS CORRECT BUT LOW LEVEL RH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE COMPARED
TO GFS.
MARINE...
BRISK EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW CROSSES KANSAS AND POLAR HIGH RETREATS SLOWLING ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE LOW MOVES INTO MISSOURI AND IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS CONTINUING AND WAVES GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS AS LOW PASSES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. IN COLLABORATION WITH GRB WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR SIMPLICITY.
ANOTHER DEEP LOW TRACKS ACROSS INDIANA ON MONDAY AND THIS MAY
PRODUCE BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ056>060-
063>065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
909 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT MID
EVENING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION LIES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S WERE OBSERVED.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEWPOINT BUMP IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...VERY LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES HAS REACHED THE GROUND WITH RADAR RETURNS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES NORTH IT IS WEAKENING
AND ERODING DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90. IN FACT...THE 03.00Z GRB SOUNDING IS VERY DRY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500 MB SO I HAVE DOUBTS IF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE MATCHING REALITY THE BEST...AND KEEPS THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DELAYED AND SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR THEN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR SOME ISOLATED SLICK
SPOTS. HAVE DECIDED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN AND POSSIBILITY WITH
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
FOCUS IS ON STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHEAST WI/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA ND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO/NEB
PANHANDLE. THIS WAS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD INTO SD AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN/IA.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY MORNING. THIS WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA WITH INCREASING 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO A DRY INFLOW OF AIR AROUND THE HIGH
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NAM IS STRONGEST WITH
THIS WAVE AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL LIQUID. HOWEVER...IF THIS SHOWER/RAIN ACTIVITY
PUSHES ANY FARTHER NORTH...SAY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...THEN COULD BE
LOOKING AT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. NOT LOOKING AT ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS CURRENTLY...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
THURSDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN//MORE PREDOMINATE IN
THE AFTERNOON// WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND FAIRLY INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. ALSO...MODELS INDICATING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES INCREASING INTO THE 100-500J/KG RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE RAIN
WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL PRETTY RAW IN GENERAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST WI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL WRAP WARMER AND MOIST INFLOW OF 925-850MB
AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE WARMEST...BRINGING IN ZERO TO
+10C AIR. MEANWHILE...STEADY EASTERLY INFLOW OF DRIER/COOLER SURFACE
AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST WI...THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MAY
OCCUR WITH DYNAMIC COOLING AFFECTS OF INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONCERNED ON AMOUNT OF ICING THAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL ICING WITH
PERHAPS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW.
THEN ON FRIDAY...LOOKING FOR MAINLY SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI IN DEFORMATION BAND AND WITH
FURTHER DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST WI. SHOULD
BE WARMER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY THE
TIME THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...LOOKING AT 3-5 INCHES FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS STAYING
NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW IN THE 15-25MPH SUSTAINED RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN SOME SPOTS.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON DYNAMICS OF THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...AND FOR THAT MATTER...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW...
ALLOWING THE NIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS 00Z MODEL RUNS.
MODELS THEN TAKE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY EVENING...
TAKING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A POSITIVE REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE SPRING-LIKE
CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
02.00Z ECMWF AND 02.12Z GFS/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BREAKING
DOWN SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND DIG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 02.00Z
ECMWF AND 02.12Z GFS/GEM EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE TO HAVE SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS ALL OR MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 02.00Z ECMWF AND 02.12Z
GFS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND ALLOWS COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. MAINLY MVFR STRATUS /2 TO 6 KFT/ NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS DRY AIR IS WINNING
OUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL 20 TO 30 DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AT KRST/KLSE. GOING WITH JUST RAIN AT
THIS POINT BUT THERE STILL IS A CONCERN OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING PROLONGED PERIOD OF ICING...BUT COULD NOT
RULE IT OUT. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 34 RANGE
SO ITS A CLOSE CALL...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS EVENING.
THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIZZLE WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE BY THEN AS WELL. BY 00Z FRIDAY THE SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND MAIN BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX TO
MOSTLY RAIN. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVER SYSTEMS...LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS/DTJ
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY SUSTAINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE AID OF A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB FEEDING IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS. AS SUCH...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE POPS OVERNIGHT...AND ALLOWED FOR SOME SPILL OVER TO THE
NORTH...WHERE ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY SPAWN
NEW CONVECTION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. ALSO
UPDATED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO BETTER DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO...HAS SINCE MADE A SUDDEN SHIFT IN MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.
THIS CELL HAS SPAWNED OTHER SMALLER STORMS AROUND IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BOYLE...MERCER...AND GERRARD COUNTIES. IF THIS SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT...PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY 1Z THIS EVENING. THE
MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY YET...SO ALL
UPDATES THAT WERE MADE WERE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 3Z THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
THIS AFTERNOON A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KY
TO SOUTHERN IL...AND THEN TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS FURTHER WEST
WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WAS PROVIDING BETTER INFLOW FROM THE
GULF. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL
TODAY...A SIGN OF THE WARM SEASON WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE COMMON IN THE COMING WEEKS. TRYING TO TIME/TRACK
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE A CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT...IT IS BETTER TO DEAL IN GENERALITIES. AS THE LOW
HEADS NE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN POP WITH TIME. TRYING TO FIND A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS YIELDS AN ENHANCED POP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH KY. WINDS
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OUR INSTABILITY WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND ARRIVES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND ANY
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY AND AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. SOME RAIN SHADOWING MAY OCCUR WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
EVERYBODY SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EITHER...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND OVER OUR REGION. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.
In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.
Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.
On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.
By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.
Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.
The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.
Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.
Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
An increasing low level jet will result in continued late night
showers/tstms that will restrict cigs to MVFR, and vsbys to IFR at
times. Rainfall is expected to continue for at least part of the
morning Thu, under IFR cigs. During Thu afternoon, some strong to
severe thunderstorm activity is possible in scattered/isolated
fashion, with not enough timing/placement certainty to mention in
the TAFs at this time. Stronger action is expected with system
passage tomorrow night, in a more consolidated form, starting near
midnight. Meanwhile, southerly winds will increase in speed and
become gusty Thursday, on approach of a fast-moving cold front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY SUSTAINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE AID OF A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB FEEDING IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS. AS SUCH...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE POPS OVERNIGHT...AND ALLOWED FOR SOME SPILL OVER TO THE
NORTH...WHERE ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY SPAWN
NEW CONVECTION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. ALSO
UPDATED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO BETTER DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO...HAS SINCE MADE A SUDDEN SHIFT IN MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.
THIS CELL HAS SPAWNED OTHER SMALLER STORMS AROUND IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BOYLE...MERCER...AND GERRARD COUNTIES. IF THIS SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT...PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY 1Z THIS EVENING. THE
MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY YET...SO ALL
UPDATES THAT WERE MADE WERE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 3Z THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
THIS AFTERNOON A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KY
TO SOUTHERN IL...AND THEN TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS FURTHER WEST
WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WAS PROVIDING BETTER INFLOW FROM THE
GULF. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL
TODAY...A SIGN OF THE WARM SEASON WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE COMMON IN THE COMING WEEKS. TRYING TO TIME/TRACK
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE A CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT...IT IS BETTER TO DEAL IN GENERALITIES. AS THE LOW
HEADS NE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN POP WITH TIME. TRYING TO FIND A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS YIELDS AN ENHANCED POP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH KY. WINDS
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OUR INSTABILITY WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND ARRIVES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND ANY
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY AND AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. SOME RAIN SHADOWING MAY OCCUR WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
EVERYBODY SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EITHER...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND OVER OUR REGION. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME MVFR AND
IFR AT TIMES FROM AROUND 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF KJKL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. THE
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE THIS EVENING...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FIRED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 0 AND
1Z THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS COULD STILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AIRPORT AT JKL BY 2Z THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO JKL. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 9
AND 10Z. GOING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR NOW...BUT
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONES THAT COULD MOVE INTO JKL IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Later This Afternoon and This
Evening...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Pilots can expect an increasing risk for thunderstorms mainly to
the north of the terminal sites tonight and across the entire
region by Thursday afternoon and evening.
Areas of MVFR ceilings will impact the area particularly north of
a warm front draped across the Ozarks and near any storms.
Visibilities will also be lowered in areas of heavy rainfall.
Low level wind shear will develop late tonight into early
Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves across the region.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
04Z surface observations at Nevada and Clinton MO show that the warm
front has lifted into the far southern CWA, with temperatures now in
the 60s and dewpoints in the upper 50s. An axis of discrete
thunderstorms continues just north of this boundary, extending from
El Dorado KS northeast to Warrensburg. These storms have exhibited
supercellular structures at times, with mid level rotation
contributing to brief period of hail up to golf ball size. Additional
thunderstorms continue to develop north and west up to around I-70, a
large region of moderate isentropic ascent continues along an
ascending broad 40-50 knot low level jet.
Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecasts show conflicting variables for
severe weather overnight. MUCAPE values currently around 1000 J/kg
are expected to gradually increase across wrn MO/ern KS to nearly
2000 J/kg by 12Z. However, cloud bearing shear is expected to
diminish considerably prior to the arrival of large scale ascent tied
to the upper trough after 12Z. With shear being the larger
contributor owing to unseasonably high freezing levels, it would
seem to reason that the threat for hail (at least much larger than
1") will steadily wane over the next couple hours, owing to fewer
supercell structures and the shear number of thunderstorms expected.
That being said, storms closer to better near-surface based inflow
air over the far southern CWA (e.g. Linn, Bates, Henry counties) will
need to be watched closely for storm- scale rotation.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary focus will
shift to the increasing likelihood for excessive rainfall. An inch of
rain fell this morning over the southern KC metro and points south
and east. The low level jet orientation running increasingly parallel
to the slow moving warm front suggests that training storms are
likely to occur over these same areas once again overnight.
Precipitable water values are now well over an inch and increasing
quickly. Dual-pol radar analysis continues to show very high KDP
values, indicative of large drop sizes and essentially a warm rain
process ongoing above the surface cold pool. That said, rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely within 50+ dBZ echos, and localized total
amounts of 3-5" are possible over the southern CWA. This is not to
diminish the heavy rainfall potential up to I-70 and perhaps St.
Joseph-Chillicothe, but those areas need a lot more rainfall.
Bookbinder
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
As of early afternoon, the majority of showers have exited the
forecast area, with only isolated showers or light drizzle present.
Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the
CWA. Retreating southern periphery of clouds have been noted north
of the warm front over SE KS into SW MO as of the past couple hours.
The warm front, analyzed from surface observations, radar fine
line, and cumulus field, currently stretches from Ponca City, OK to
Parsons, KS to just south of Springfield, MO. Eastern extent of this
boundary has experienced reinforced cold air from earlier and
ongoing weak convection, and even a slight southward jog of the
boundary near SGF.
Forecast concerns first hinge on potential for convection this
evening and overnight. Convective-resolving models (HRRR, EAX 4-km
WRF, LSX 12-km WRF, NAM NCEP) have shown similar outputs to
convective behavior and warm frontal position during the next 6-12
hours. Models have been very persistent in first developing
convection along the warm front in SE KS between 22-01Z. There
remains some uncertainty to how far north the warm front will reach
this evening. High-resolution model guidance places the boundary
within the southern two-tiers of counties in the CWA (Mound City to
Clinton) by early evening, but some of this northern extent may be
limited by the recent reinforcement of cooler air from showers just
north of the boundary along I-44. Nevertheless, expect the boundary
to be in/just south of the CWA by early/mid evening. Additional
convection is expected to develop along the warm front this evening,
and with a favorable environment for well-organized convection
including supercells, with large hail to golf ball-sized and damaging
wind gusts possible with these storms that remain along and just
south of the warm front. In addition, with the enhanced low-level
shear near/along the boundary, the potential for tornadoes will also
be possible. To the north of the boundary, additional convection will
develop between 02-05Z over much of the forecast area. Some of these
storms, especially south of Highway 36, will have a favorable
environment with ample elevated instability and wind shear to support
storms capable of producing severe hail. The highest probability of
these elevated storms producing severe weather will be between 02-08Z
in the CWA. Will also have to monitor any additional convection along
the warm front as it lifts northward overnight and whether the lowest
layer of the atmosphere cools and decouples. Lastly, areas along and
south of Interstate 70 received the bulk of rain this morning, with
precipitation totals exceeding one inch in many areas. With
additional moderate to heavy rainfall expected in some of these
already saturated areas tonight and Thursday, will issue a flash
flood watch for areas along Interstate 70 to account for the
potential for flash flooding.
A brief lull in the activity is anticipated during the mid morning
hours as convection moves out of the CWA. A surface low and an
accompanying cold front will move through the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Assuming the atmosphere can recover from
earlier convection, strong dynamics/forcing should lead to another
round of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Storm mode remains in
question depending on the available instability and strong forcing,
but a brief period of discrete convection followed by an evolution
into a squall line is currently anticipated. Severe weather will be
possible, especially across the southeastern half of the CWA.
Additional details will be resolved following the convective
evolution from tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
As the departing surface low continues to wrap up and lifts off to
the northeast, unseasonably cold air will filter southward into the
forecast area on Friday into Friday night. Some of the wrap-around
precipitation may brush the northern edge of the forecast area,
possibly falling in the form of light snow across our northern tier
of counties, and a rain/snow mix a little further to the south. No
snow accumulation is expected, and very little precipitation is
possible. Highs on Friday will reach only into the 40s to perhaps
around 50 degrees, and below freezing temperatures are expected on
Friday night.
Another deepening longwave trough will head eastward across the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend, entrenching
the forecast area in west to southwest flow once again. However; a
lingering surface boundary across the southeastern U.S. and the
southern extent of the upper trough should keep any significant
precipitation south of the forecast area. On and off chances for
light rain showers are present Sunday through Tuesday, then cooler
and drier northwest flow will filter into the area again by midweek
as the upper trough pushes eastward. High temperatures this weekend
will be tempered by cloud cover and possible rain showers, and
should settle near or slightly below normal. By middle next week,
highs are more likely to remain a touch below normal as northwest
flow takes over.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Watching closely thunderstorms developing near CNU as they track
northeast into western MO. Latest short term guidance suggests these
should stay mainly south of the KC area for several
hours...eventually reaching IXD/OJC late this evening, toward MCI
near or shortly after midnight and into the STJ-IRK corridor before
sunrise. Before storms move in, widespread low clouds will remain in
place near and north of the MO River and may even lower a bit after
dark bringing ceiling close to airfield minimums for some airports.
Additional storms are possible Thurs morning before a front moves
through during the afternoon but timing this activity is difficult.
Therefore kept a vague VCTS through this period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ057-105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ037>040-
043>046.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Bookbinder
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
450 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND THEN SN LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS RUN
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. IMPROVEMENTS NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTH...THEN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS KS/OK. INCREASING SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING NEAR 25 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
THE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB
TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW LIFTS INTO THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS BUT IS BACKING OFF ON THE QPF ACROSS ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. THE RAP IS DRIER THAN THE NAM THRU 19Z. THE
GEM REGIONAL IS THE NEXT MODEL TO COME IN...THEN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT THE PROSPECT FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 83 APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING. THE LATER MODEL RUNS OF THE GEM...GFS...ECM AS WELL AS
THE RAP WHICH COMES IN ONCE PER HOUR FOR AN 18 HOUR FORECAST WILL
RESOLVE THIS FORECAST PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
AT FIRST GLANCE...THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE SNOW FORECAST BUT IT IS ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING VERY STRONG FORCING INTO NERN COLO. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST LEFT OF THE H700MB
LOW WHICH ALL MODELS MOVE THRU SCNTL AND NERN NEB THURSDAY. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK EXCEPT THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL INDICATED IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO
SWRN NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST USES A BIT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH
HAS LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE SNOW FORECAST SINCE IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER 06Z. THE GEM...NAM...GFS AND SREF WERE
USED FOR QPF WITH A SIMPLE 10 TO 1 RATIO FOR SNOW. THIS TIGHTENED UP
THE SNOW BAND BUT ONLY PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES IN HOLT COUNTY.
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRACK 50 OR SO MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO ONEILL THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
SUSTAINED 25 MPH SFC WINDS DEVELOPING AT 16Z ACROSS SWRN NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT BARRIER JET SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GEM.
THOSE MODELS STRENGTHEN THAT JET FROM 35KT AT 15Z TO 55KT BY 03Z
WHICH IS A MODELS WAY OF SAYING BLIZZARD. BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE HIGHEST POP AREAS.
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY AROUND 10 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAKES FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPED
AND STRONGER SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THESE
MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LAST THREE
SYSTEMS...AND HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
LATEST SYSTEM. A CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL INDICATES A GOOD
AGEOSTROPHIC THERMAL CIRCULATION...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS
POINTS TO A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING...LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME OTHER FACTORS /SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION/ THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN OVERALL LESS SNOW. ANOTHER
REASON TO SIDE WITH THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNS OF A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING. IF THE
SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES AS FORECASTED...THEN LOW VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THIS EVENING...WITH FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO IOWA. COLDER AIR THEN COMES
IN FROM MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT ENDS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA THOUGH WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 06Z IN
MUCH OF THE WEST.
THEN...AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALSO...RETURN FLOW BRINGS A TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THOUGH
THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL FOLLOW A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NEARLY
SATURATED AIR THROUGH A LAYER OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY. THE LIFT IS
NOT REAL STRONG IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UNDERLYING NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM...SO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.
FINALLY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT SHOULD BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A DEEP STORM SYSTEM...ACROSS ARIZONA AT 04Z...WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE CNTL PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
EVENING.
VFR/MVFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN KVTN-KIEN AS THIS AREA
SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE STRATUS.
SOUTH OF A KSNY-KANW LINE...MIXED...MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ007-009-010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
329 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AMIDST SOUTHWESTERLY
STIRRING IN A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF WED AREA-WIDE...SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY
RETREATED INTO VA.
IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE/BE ONGOING EARLY FRI FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
990-995 MB SURFACE CYCLONE AND PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI.
THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...10-30 METER/12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND MOST NOTABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...WARRANTS A CONTINUED FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS - AS EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTING CIRRUS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW H8 TEMPS GOING FROM 16C FRIDAY TO AROUND 8C
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-KOCW ARC
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KRDU AND TRIAD TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY CONSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHT NE OR N FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 15-16Z...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESUMES THEREAFTER. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...BUT SOME WEAKENING VFR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-
16Z...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 14-19Z.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10
THOUSAND FT DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AMIDST SOUTHWESTERLY
STIRRING IN A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MOVE OFF WELL TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HENCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRECIP/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE
SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUR
EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY SHOWING IT
ERODE BY AROUND 00Z/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS MAKES IT TO OUR REGION...ANY MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHERE THE ARRIVAL TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AS
THE AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED...THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-KOCW ARC
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KRDU AND TRIAD TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY CONSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHT NE OR N FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 15-16Z...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESUMES THEREAFTER. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...BUT SOME WEAKENING VFR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-
16Z...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 14-19Z.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10
THOUSAND FT DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...DJF/KRD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
459 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS A WARM WAVE MOVES
EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM WAVE MOVES E
ALONG IT.
THE FRONT WAS STILL STALLED ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT FARTHER W...IT WAS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A
WARM FRONT. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING NEWD
OVER TOP OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT
TOUGH TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT AND THESE DISTURBANCES CROSS.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW TO SE ACROSS KY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART AND REFORM BY THE
TIME THE DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE MOVE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
THERE THEN.
THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO PA TONIGHT. THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MILD WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SPARSE.
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY JUST OVER AN INCH W OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...MOST OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE. ONLY THE RUC AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY COULD HANDLE THE RAINFALL TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIME
THE SOIL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 IN OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUGGEST DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HEATING S OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 700 J/KG.
WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT DID INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDER MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON GOOD SSW FLOW.
FRONT EXITS FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOW POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT.
SKIES CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND EXPECT A RATHER
BREEZY DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY WITH MILD BUT DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WINDY SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH ITS
ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
CREATE A RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LOWER QPF EXPECTED THERE. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD
SOAKER IN GENERAL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OMITTING THUNDER FOR NOW DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS. THEN...POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
THE AIR DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL KEEP LIQUID THRU TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WIND DOWN PRETTY FAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY THAT
COLD. SO BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY N THROUGH THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WITH A WARM
WAVE MOVING EWD ALONG THE FRONT THU. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLOW MOVING SPRING WARM FRONT...BUT ONE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH
THE AREA THU. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM E CNTRL OHIO THROUGH NRN WV COMPARED WITH POINTS S.
ALSO TOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AS WARM FRONTS TEND TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NT AND EARLY MORNING HRS.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE S OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.
LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME S TO SW ONCE
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THU
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CRW AND HTS AROUND
13Z...BUT THEN TEND TO GET HUNG UP FROM PKB TO CKB TO EKN AND THEN
DOWN THE MOUNTAINS TO BKW...NOT CLEANLY MOVING THROUGH THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL 02Z TO 04Z FRI. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW LATE THU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN SHOWERS THROUGH ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TAFS TO
TSRA FOR SOME SITES AFTER 12Z THU.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/03/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE MULTI-FACETED
AND DIFFICULT TO PUT INTO WORDS...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILN CWA. SEVERAL HAZARDS ARE
GOING TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF...BUT TIMING
THEM OUT AND DETERMINING THEIR SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIGGEST
DIFFICULTY.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A HUGE MCS BEING DRIVEN BY A LOW-LEVEL JET IN
MISSOURI. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE TO THE
EAST...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
OF THE ILN CWA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MUCH
DIFFERENT...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ILN AREA (AND ADJACENT
CWAS) ARE ELEVATED...WITH A CLEAR INVERSION PRESENT NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE LARGE LEADING-STRATIFORM MCS (SOMEWHAT OF AN ODDITY)
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS BEING HANDLED VERY POORLY (IF AT ALL) IN
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGH-RES RUNS (RAP/HRRR) JUST CATCHING
UP TO IT ON THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH...THERE IS WIDESPREAD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH ARE ALREADY HIGH...WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY (TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES). THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO IT. 00Z RUNS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE MORE RESERVED WITH HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL GET DURING
THE DAY...AS ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING...AND
IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD. THANKS ALSO TO THE RAIN THAT FELL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME EXTRA COUNTIES
NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI TO THE FLOOD WATCH. ALTHOUGH
ISSUED AS A FLOOD WATCH...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL
DOES PRESENT A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...THOUGH THE WATCH
EXTENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
RAINFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...FURTHER COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST. THIS MORNING...WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS
MOSTLY DISCRETE...A FEW UPSTREAM CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
ELEVATED HAIL CORES. ANYTHING REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE
RATHER UNLIKELY...BUT SOME HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LATER TODAY...THE
CONVECTIVE MODE (WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER) FOR MOST
OF THE CWA (NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT) WILL PROBABLY NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. RATHER...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LARGER-SCALE
MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THIS FEATURE FOR DAYS...BUT WITH THE
HIGH-RES MODELS NOW IN RANGE...IT IS APPARENT THAT THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPACTS ON
THE WIND FLOW...WITH WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A DAYTIME
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY
21Z...WHILE SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY...NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (WITH LOW LCLS)...AND AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION (WITH SIGNS OF AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE EMBEDDED LOW). MOST MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ILN CWA TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABILIZATION AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...THOUGH THE HRRR IS MUCH
RAINIER AND DOES NOT DEVELOP DISTINCT CONVECTION ANYWHERE NORTH
OF THE LMK/JKL FORECAST AREAS. THE END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS
THAT THERE IS A CONDITIONAL TORNADO/WIND THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR PEAK DIURNAL TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE ARE A LOT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ISSUES
THAT COULD CAUSE THAT FORECAST TO GO AWRY. A WASHED-OUT SCENARIO
INCAPABLE OF CAPITALIZING ON THE SHEAR IS ALSO A LEGITIMATE
POSSIBILITY.
WITH THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL MOTION TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...MAX
TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY
TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL IN THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA...WITH NO BOUNDARY-LAYER WARM PUSH (AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING)...AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO A BREAK IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION BY MID-EVENING
ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA...AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS
BIG PUSH TO THE NORTH...AND THE WAVE ALONG IT MOVES OFF INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 MODERATE RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS WELL.
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...OR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND A DECENT DISTANCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST OF THE QPF/SIM-RADAR DEPICTIONS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING APPEAR RATHER DISORGANIZED...AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF STORM MODE. THE EASIEST THING TO DO WHEN LOOKING
AT THIS SETUP WOULD BE TO EXPECT ANOTHER QLCS OR SERIES OF LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF A WIND THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK TORNADOES. THAT COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN...BUT THE NUANCES WITH
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND STORM LOCATION DO NOT SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE OF A HIGHER-END NATURE. IN
FACT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONG...IT IS NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE COLD-SEASON QLCS EVENTS FROM THE PAST
FEW MONTHS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM PEAKS OUT AT
AROUND 40-50 KNOTS...WHICH IS RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE A SOLID SEVERAL-HUNDRED J/KG. AN
INTERESTING SCENARIO DEPICTED ON THE ARW AND NMM RUNS ALLOWS THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ON THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TRUTH TO THE FACT THAT STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS
THEY OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING AND GET INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
IN TIMING. NOT MUCH ELSE CAN BE GLEANED FROM THIS SET OF MODEL
RUNS. ULTIMATELY...WHILE SOME SEVERE-THREAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
ARE MODELED WITH PRECISION IN ADVANCE...THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE
CASES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE RUN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL COME AFTER 06Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE COLD FRONT CAUSING AN EARLY DECREASE IN
TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WINDS ON FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
WELL-MIXED POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH...CERTAINLY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AS ITS OWN THREAT. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS LASTING EVEN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS LATE SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...OVERSPREADING RAIN. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TURN OFF FROM
SW-NE IN FAVOR OF PLAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE SUPPORT OF
THE UPPER LOW TRIGGERING THESE STRONGER STORMS CROSSES. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS UPPER LOW...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKY COVER ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SPLOTCHY IN PUTTING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR SUCH FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A COOL NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
THEN LET WARMER AIR WORK IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...AGAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WEAK MOIST ADVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS. THEN...LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND AS SUCH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO
OCCURRING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL EXIT EAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL WANE. CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY EVENING OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED. FARTHER
NORTH...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL
THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ042>044-051>053-
060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 513 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPSLOPE AND UPGLIDE INDUCED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS. THEY HAVE HIGH
BASES AND SOME OF THE PCPN LIKELY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL UPTREND IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
ECHOES ON RADAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED ON THE HRRR.
FARTHER NORTH...THE DOWNSHEAR STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS OVER ERN TN IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SKY COVER WAS INCREASED WITH THIS UPDATE WHILE
THE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS I MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD
UPDATE...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB IN
CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12 UTC
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. ONCE THE MCV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE
LARGER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH PUTS THE NW
HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND
8KFT BY 12 UTC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO THE AIRFIELD AFTER 12 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS ONCE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KAVL THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 09
UTC AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A TSTM...BUT THE NAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TSTMS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS I MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD
UPDATE...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB IN
CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12 UTC
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. ONCE THE MCV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE
LARGER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED
ACRS THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH
PUTS THE NW HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE
DAY...WHICH WILL HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND
8KFT BY 12 UTC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO THE AIRFIELD AFTER 12 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS ONCE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KAVL THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 09
UTC AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A TSTM...BUT THE NAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TSTMS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FRIDAY WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR DO A GOOD
JOB CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12
UTC WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
AS OF 1030 PM...SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM
FROM MOVE INTO THE MTNS AND NRN CWFA. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA ON THU AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MTNS...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING
INTO THE I-40 CORRIDOR THU. HAVE UPDATED POP TO SHOW THESE TRENDS
ALONG WITH HIGHEST CHC ACROSS THE MTNS THU MORNING AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARE BETTER. RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 735 PM...SOME MID CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE MTNS WITH MAINLY
CIRRUS ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING WARMER WITH DEW POINTS DRIER THAN EXPECTED. THAT SAID...
LOW TEMP FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT PRECIP TRENDS FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE. GUIDANCE SHOWING A MIXED BAG WITH PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE MTNS
AND I-40 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THU. WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY UPDATE
TIMING...BUT NOT SURE IF ANY OVERALL POP CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
AT 440 PM...GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
AT 205 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SW WINDS. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
SAT PICS INDICATE A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING ON THE
AR/MS BORDER. 12Z MODELS PICK UP ON THE RESULTANT MCV AND TRACK IT
INTO WESTERN NC BY 12Z THU. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL WILL APPROACH FROM THE N. ALL MODELS RESPOND WITH QPF OVER THE
NC MOUNTAINS THU MORNING AND ALONG AND N OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THU
AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL FORECAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THOSE AREAS.
THIS STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POP DATA AND NEIGHBORS.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE RULE THU MORNING...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE THU AFTERNOON MOST AREAS AS MCV AND FRONT MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE AND A DEEPENING
NEUTRAL/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT SURFACE
LOW WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPUSLES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN LEADING TO POCKETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FORCING WILL YIELD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING WHEN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD BEGINS THEREFORE WILL CARRY EARLIER POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH POPS LOWERING AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER IMPULSES EJECT NORTHEAST.
POPS WILL RAMP UP YET AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESIDING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
YIELDS PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SURGES
AMIDST STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. LIKEWISE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL ALLOW FOR
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH LATEST NAM PLAN VIEW PLOTS INDICATE BELT OF ENHANCED
SBCAPE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC WITH VALUES GENERALLY
IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE TAMER
OF THE TWO WITH SBCAPE VALUES STRUGGLING TO TOP 800J/KG. SPC DAY3
CONV OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
DUE TO LATEST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY FIELDS. ASIDE FROM ABOVE
MENTIONED UPSLOPE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT LINEAR STORM MODES WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES YIELDING A SECONDARY SMALL HAIL THREAT. INTENSITY OF THE
FROPA DROPS RAPIDLY AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS EJECT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MODEL QPF RESPONSE INDICATES SUCH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WAINING. POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DUE
TO NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHILE FALLING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. ALL POPS ARE
REMOVED BY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
REGIME SETS UP. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE THEREFORE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY DESPITE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WED...THE EXTENDED RANGE BEGINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH ACROSS THE MID WEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUN. USING
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT...A AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ARKLATX. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 0Z SUN. I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND POPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NNE...REACHING THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG
AND EAST OF I-85...I WILL CARRY TSRA IN THE FORECAST.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WED MORNING. THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE...PERSISTENT
WEST TO NORTHWEST H85 FLOW...AND ROUND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
SUPPORT SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND
8KFT BY 12 UTC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO THE AIRFIELD AFTER 12 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS ONCE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KAVL THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 09
UTC AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A TSTM...BUT THE NAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TSTMS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
358 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON...WITH VFR VSBYS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW. KATY LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN AR AND WEST
TN IS JUST ABOUT READY TO EXIT INTO KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS
AS A RESULT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY EAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS OTRW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
TONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS LIFT. THE
CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATIVE OF THE UNFOCUSED SURFACE LIFT SHOWING
MANY SMALL SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SUSTAINED FOR MORE THAN A FEW
VOLUME SCANS. A 35-40 LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT BUT SURFACE FOCUS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS/MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY 06Z...WE SHOULD SEE A MORE
RESPECTABLE 40-50KT LLJ...BUT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE THE
LACKING INGREDIENT.
ADDITIONAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AS A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE MAIN
TROUGH MAINTAINS A NEUTRAL TILT...ALTHOUGH AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE
THAT SMALLER IMPULSES ATTAINING A NEGATIVE TILT ROTATING AROUND
THE TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD HELP VENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HELPING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. MODEL INSTABILITY /ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS/ BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET STORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z IF NOT
EARLIER. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION GETS GOING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING...THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED.
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
ARE ALL THREATS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
TIMING OF THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRICKY
AS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR
BY MIDDAY AND AFTER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IRREGARDLESS OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKELY.
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE LINE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WOULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...AND POSSIBLY THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL EXCEEDING TWO INCHES. FLOODING AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT AS OF NOW GUIDANCE
HAS SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-23 MPH...SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER MONDAY
AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING IN A RE ENFORCING SHOT OF DIRER AIR...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR DECK WAS LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MS AT 07Z... WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTH INTO MEM AND OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z.
NAM AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOW TSRA INTO THE JBR AREA TOWARD
12Z. HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...BUT PREFER THE HRRR SOLUTION
GIVEN THE BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. BETTER TSRA CHANCES APPEAR IN
ORDER IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME.
FOR THE LATE EVENING... STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE APPEARS WILL
ARRIVE IN MEM NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT OUTBOUND
PUSH. IN THE INTERIM... LOW CHANCES OF DISCRETE TSRA POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE LATE EVENING MEM ARRIVALS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 61 70 43 65 / 90 10 0 0
MKL 61 69 39 64 / 90 20 0 0
JBR 56 65 39 64 / 90 10 0 0
TUP 63 74 42 66 / 90 30 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
439 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR VALID TAF PD. SFC
FRONT EXTENDS FROM KDAN WESTWARD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH SOME -RA BETWEEN 12Z/8AM-16Z/NOON. CLOUD BASES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR...035-060KFT AGL. AFTER
NOON...SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR BUT THEN AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BEST
INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z/4PM AND 02Z/10PM THIS EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z/8AM...THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
AND BE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GREATEST AREA OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH WITH WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT MID
EVENING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION LIES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S WERE OBSERVED.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEWPOINT BUMP IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...VERY LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES HAS REACHED THE GROUND WITH RADAR RETURNS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES NORTH IT IS WEAKENING
AND ERODING DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90. IN FACT...THE 03.00Z GRB SOUNDING IS VERY DRY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500 MB SO I HAVE DOUBTS IF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE MATCHING REALITY THE BEST...AND KEEPS THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DELAYED AND SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR THEN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR SOME ISOLATED SLICK
SPOTS. HAVE DECIDED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN AND POSSIBILITY WITH
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
FOCUS IS ON STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHEAST WI/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA ND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO/NEB
PANHANDLE. THIS WAS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD INTO SD AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN/IA.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY MORNING. THIS WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA WITH INCREASING 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO A DRY INFLOW OF AIR AROUND THE HIGH
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NAM IS STRONGEST WITH
THIS WAVE AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL LIQUID. HOWEVER...IF THIS SHOWER/RAIN ACTIVITY
PUSHES ANY FARTHER NORTH...SAY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...THEN COULD BE
LOOKING AT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. NOT LOOKING AT ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS CURRENTLY...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
THURSDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN//MORE PREDOMINATE IN
THE AFTERNOON// WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND FAIRLY INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. ALSO...MODELS INDICATING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES INCREASING INTO THE 100-500J/KG RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE RAIN
WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL PRETTY RAW IN GENERAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST WI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL WRAP WARMER AND MOIST INFLOW OF 925-850MB
AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE WARMEST...BRINGING IN ZERO TO
+10C AIR. MEANWHILE...STEADY EASTERLY INFLOW OF DRIER/COOLER SURFACE
AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST WI...THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MAY
OCCUR WITH DYNAMIC COOLING AFFECTS OF INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONCERNED ON AMOUNT OF ICING THAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL ICING WITH
PERHAPS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW.
THEN ON FRIDAY...LOOKING FOR MAINLY SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI IN DEFORMATION BAND AND WITH
FURTHER DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST WI. SHOULD
BE WARMER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY THE
TIME THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...LOOKING AT 3-5 INCHES FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS STAYING
NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW IN THE 15-25MPH SUSTAINED RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN SOME SPOTS.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON DYNAMICS OF THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...AND FOR THAT MATTER...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW...
ALLOWING THE NIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS 00Z MODEL RUNS.
MODELS THEN TAKE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY EVENING...
TAKING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A POSITIVE REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE SPRING-LIKE
CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
02.00Z ECMWF AND 02.12Z GFS/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BREAKING
DOWN SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND DIG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 02.00Z
ECMWF AND 02.12Z GFS/GEM EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE TO HAVE SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS ALL OR MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 02.00Z ECMWF AND 02.12Z
GFS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND ALLOWS COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OBS/MEDIA REPORTS SHOWING THAT THE LEADING BAND IS PRODUCING A MIX
OF SLEET AND RAIN. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE MVFR CONTAINED TO IOWA/ILLINOIS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. MVFR LOOKS LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT
SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING AS WELL OUT OF THE EAST WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX TO
MOSTLY RAIN. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVER SYSTEMS...LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS/DTJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough moving
eastward out of the Four Corner Regions into the Western High Plains
today bringing the possibility for precip to portions of central and
western Kansas. As the upper level system moves into the southern
Rockies early this morning, the surface low across extreme
southeastern Colorado will begin to shift eastward along the Kansas
and Oklahoma border then lift northeast across eastern Kansas as a
cold front begins to push through western Kansas. Although low level
moisture will be lacking with the bulk of it blocked off to our
east, enough mid level moisture exists with the approaching trough
axis to set the stage for rain development along and behind the
front as it pushes through this afternoon. The best chance for
precip is expected to be across more northern portions of the
forecast area, including west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
in central Kansas where H7 frontogenetic banding is projected to
occur in better proximity to the mid/upper level wave. Enough cold
air advection in the lower levels may be enough to support brief
periods of light to moderate snow across west central and central
Kansas with limited snow accumulations possible, especially if
mixed with rain. Any precip chances will quickly come to an end
this evening as the upper level wave quickly lifts northeast into
the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will be well below normal today as cold air surges
southward in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas
this afternoon. With temperatures down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas early this morning,
look for highs only up into the 40s(F) here today, particularly with
lingering clouds through early this afternoon. A few 50s(F) may be
possible in south central Kansas where the frontal boundary remains
fairly stationary. Look for temperatures to fall easily into the
30s(F) tonight with mid to upper 20s(F) possible by sunrise Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
GFS, ECMWF, and Ensembles appear to all be in good agreement with
moving an upper level trough, located off the west coast earlier
this morning, to the four corners region by Saturday afternoon. This
system will then cross the central high plains late Sunday. As this
next upper level system crosses the southwest United States on
Saturday...an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen along
the lee of the Rockies and a south/southeast flow will develop
across west Texas and western Kansas. This south/southeasterly flow
in the lower levels will begin to draw low level moisture back into
southwest Kansas. By Saturday afternoon an upper level jet
streak is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF to extend from the base of
the southwest United States upper trough into west Texas and the
left exit region will be located over the Texas panhandle and
extreme southwest Kansas. Based on improving low level moisture,
and 850-700MB warm air advection near the left exit region of this
upper level jet the chance for rain showers will be improving during
the day across southwest Kansas. The chance for precipitation will
continue through Sunday as the main upper level trough continues to
approach the area from the west and a mid level deformation zone
exits the Rockies and crosses the Central High Plains. Given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation chances over the weekend
period the cooling trend currently in the forecast still looks on
track. Also based on 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Sunday will
trend highs toward the cooler 850mb mix down temperatures,
especially in the southwest where cloud cover and precipitation
chances will occur earlier than further northeast. Latest MET and
MAV guidance also hinting at this so highs on Saturday will range
from the upper 50s in far southwest Kansas to near 60 in north
central and south central Kansas. Cloud cover and the net 24hour
trend from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday supports highs on Sunday to be
around 5 degrees cooler.
On Monday the main upper level trough/low will move into the mid
Mississippi Valley as a weaker upper level disturbance, associated
with a northern branch upper level jet streak approaches from the
northwest. Based on the mid level moisture and instability under the
500mb cool pool will keep a chance/slight chance rain showers in
the forecast until this system passes.
On Tuesday an upper level ridge will begin to approach the Rockies
from the west. Downslope flow and 850mb temperatures trends
indicate a warming trend, especially mid week. Highs next week are
expected to rebound from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday to
the mid 70s to near 80 by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Cloud bases will gradually increase by late morning as drier air
and mixing occurs across western Kansas. Based on NAM BUFR
soundings and latest HRRR the current IFR/LIFR conditions will
improve into MVFR conditions between 18z and 21z. Ceilings will
then improve into the VFR category late day/early evening as an
upper level trough crosses western Kansas. There will also be a
chance for precipitation between 18z Thursday and 00z Friday as
the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. Visibilities will
improve from 1-3SM to P6SM by late morning as gusty north
northeast winds continue at 15 to 20 knots. These gusty winds will
decrease after 00z Friday as a surface ridge axis will build into
western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 47 27 59 34 / 60 10 0 0
GCK 43 28 58 33 / 70 20 0 0
EHA 47 28 62 36 / 60 0 0 0
LBL 50 28 60 35 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 42 27 53 31 / 80 40 0 0
P28 57 35 60 33 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...ABE
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
635 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1041 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).
THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.
A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).
THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.
A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-
050>052-056>059-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
EVEN AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY LARGELY VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 4K FT AND VSBYS AOA
6SM. IT MAY ACTUALLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CONDITIONS TO
FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR WHEN THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN STORY ON THURSDAY
WILL BE THE STRONG SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING REGARDING THE ICING THREAT AT MKG/GRR/LAN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING SINCE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT
MIDNIGHT ARE AROUND 40 AND PRECIP AMOUNTS/COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRZG RN AND SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY 11Z-16Z... THE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.
A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-
050>052-056>059-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1010 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Today...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Complex and active weather today as ingredients are favorable for
periods of severe weather. There could be multiple rounds from
this morning into this afternoon and then later this afternoon
into this evening. The cap is weaker across the area then
previously expected and storms are developing across northwestern
Arkansas into far southern Missouri. A boundary is also pushing
southeast through the area across central Missouri into
southwestern Missouri. There is clearing just ahead of this line
across the eastern Ozarks and instability in quickly increasing
this morning. Low level winds shear also remains high across the
area.
Storms are expected to increase in coverage late this morning into
early this afternoon generally across far southern Missouri and
areas generally along and east of Highway 65. Deep layer shear
will support supercells developing. Due to the weaker cap and
instability increasing these storms will be surface based and all
modes of severe weather will be possible, with hail to the size of
tennis balls, damaging straight line winds, and a few tornadoes
will also be possible due to the low level wind shear and surface
based storms.
This activity will be a factor later in the day as a cold front
pushes into northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas during
the mid to late afternoon hours. Storms are expected to develop
along the front during this time over or just west to the far
western portions of the forecast area. Deep layer shear and storm
motions will favor supercells with all modes of severe weather
expected during the mid to late afternoon hours west of Highway
65.
The convection this morning and afternoon will have to be watched
to see how it impacts instability and the severe potential this
afternoon and evening when the cold front pushes across the area.
If the area is worked over too much ahead of the cold front, storms
may weaken or form into a line due to strong forcing along the
front. The overall severe potential would be weaker due to weaker
instability. However, if the sun can break out and instability can
recover behind the earlier storms, the severe potential will increase
as supercells will be possible. Later this evening, storms will
form into a line over the eastern Ozarks with strong winds and
embedded tornadoes being the primary risk. This activity will push
east of the area by the early overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Windy conditions will occur through much of the day today at the
terminals. Later this afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected
to from west of the terminal sites, and move into the region
during the late afternoon through mid to late evening hours. Once
these storms pass, winds will become westerly and then
northwesterly overnight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Windy conditions will occur through much of the day today at the
terminals. Later this afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected
to from west of the terminal sites, and move into the region
during the late afternoon through mid to late evening hours. Once
these storms pass, winds will become westerly and then
northwesterly overnight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
EXAMINING 12Z LBF/ABR/OAX SOUNDINGS AND 11Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS READY TO PRODUCE SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUB-FRZG
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND W. WE ARE
JUST WAITING FOR LIFT TO DEVELOP AND THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER TO
SATURATE.
THE UEX 88D SHOWS CLOUD TOPS AROUND 11K FT...AND THE BOTTOM OF THE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS FCST AROUND 12K FT. SO IT`S JUST A WAITING
GAME.
THE 13Z RAP SUGGESTS SATURATION FIRST OCCURS FROM GOTHENBURG-COZAD
UP TO ORD 12PM-1PM...AND THEN E INTO THE TRI-CITIES 4PM-5PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.
AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.
AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
808 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.
AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.
AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
749 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE (IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE) IN A TIGHTENING MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF WED AREA-WIDE...SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY
RETREATED INTO VA BY THIS TIME.
IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE/BE ONGOING EARLY FRI FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
990-995 MB SURFACE CYCLONE AND PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...10-30 METER/12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND MOST NOTABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...WARRANT A CONTINUED FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS - AS EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTING CIRRUS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW H8 TEMPS GOING FROM 16C FRIDAY TO AROUND 8C
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A KRUQ-KJNX-KPGV ARC
THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY BEGIN A NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT IN
THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY NE TO N
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 16-18Z...WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN WITH THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT. A
WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME REMNANT...VFR SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES
WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 15-19Z. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10 THOUSAND FT
DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER. DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF A 7-10 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE - IN A STRONG NOCTURNAL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 1000-1500 FT - STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 40S KTS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE MULTI-FACETED
AND DIFFICULT TO PUT INTO WORDS...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILN CWA. SEVERAL HAZARDS ARE
GOING TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF...BUT TIMING
THEM OUT AND DETERMINING THEIR SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIGGEST
DIFFICULTY.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A HUGE MCS BEING DRIVEN BY A LOW-LEVEL JET IN
MISSOURI. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE TO THE
EAST...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
OF THE ILN CWA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MUCH
DIFFERENT...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ILN AREA (AND ADJACENT
CWAS) ARE ELEVATED...WITH A CLEAR INVERSION PRESENT NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE LARGE LEADING-STRATIFORM MCS (SOMEWHAT OF AN ODDITY)
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS BEING HANDLED VERY POORLY (IF AT ALL) IN
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGH-RES RUNS (RAP/HRRR) JUST CATCHING
UP TO IT ON THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH...THERE IS WIDESPREAD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH ARE ALREADY HIGH...WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY (TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES). THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO IT. 00Z RUNS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE MORE RESERVED WITH HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL GET DURING
THE DAY...AS ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING...AND
IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD. THANKS ALSO TO THE RAIN THAT FELL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME EXTRA COUNTIES
NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI TO THE FLOOD WATCH. ALTHOUGH
ISSUED AS A FLOOD WATCH...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL
DOES PRESENT A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...THOUGH THE WATCH
EXTENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
RAINFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...FURTHER COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST. THIS MORNING...WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS
MOSTLY DISCRETE...A FEW UPSTREAM CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
ELEVATED HAIL CORES. ANYTHING REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE
RATHER UNLIKELY...BUT SOME HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LATER TODAY...THE
CONVECTIVE MODE (WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER) FOR MOST
OF THE CWA (NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT) WILL PROBABLY NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. RATHER...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LARGER-SCALE
MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THIS FEATURE FOR DAYS...BUT WITH THE
HIGH-RES MODELS NOW IN RANGE...IT IS APPARENT THAT THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPACTS ON
THE WIND FLOW...WITH WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A DAYTIME
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY
21Z...WHILE SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY...NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (WITH LOW LCLS)...AND AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION (WITH SIGNS OF AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE EMBEDDED LOW). MOST MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ILN CWA TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABILIZATION AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...THOUGH THE HRRR IS MUCH
RAINIER AND DOES NOT DEVELOP DISTINCT CONVECTION ANYWHERE NORTH
OF THE LMK/JKL FORECAST AREAS. THE END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS
THAT THERE IS A CONDITIONAL TORNADO/WIND THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR PEAK DIURNAL TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE ARE A LOT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ISSUES
THAT COULD CAUSE THAT FORECAST TO GO AWRY. A WASHED-OUT SCENARIO
INCAPABLE OF CAPITALIZING ON THE SHEAR IS ALSO A LEGITIMATE
POSSIBILITY.
WITH THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL MOTION TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...MAX
TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY
TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL IN THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA...WITH NO BOUNDARY-LAYER WARM PUSH (AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING)...AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO A BREAK IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION BY MID-EVENING
ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA...AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS
BIG PUSH TO THE NORTH...AND THE WAVE ALONG IT MOVES OFF INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 MODERATE RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS WELL.
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...OR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND A DECENT DISTANCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST OF THE QPF/SIM-RADAR DEPICTIONS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING APPEAR RATHER DISORGANIZED...AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF STORM MODE. THE EASIEST THING TO DO WHEN LOOKING
AT THIS SETUP WOULD BE TO EXPECT ANOTHER QLCS OR SERIES OF LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF A WIND THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK TORNADOES. THAT COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN...BUT THE NUANCES WITH
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND STORM LOCATION DO NOT SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE OF A HIGHER-END NATURE. IN
FACT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONG...IT IS NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE COLD-SEASON QLCS EVENTS FROM THE PAST
FEW MONTHS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM PEAKS OUT AT
AROUND 40-50 KNOTS...WHICH IS RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE A SOLID SEVERAL-HUNDRED J/KG. AN
INTERESTING SCENARIO DEPICTED ON THE ARW AND NMM RUNS ALLOWS THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ON THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TRUTH TO THE FACT THAT STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS
THEY OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING AND GET INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
IN TIMING. NOT MUCH ELSE CAN BE GLEANED FROM THIS SET OF MODEL
RUNS. ULTIMATELY...WHILE SOME SEVERE-THREAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
ARE MODELED WITH PRECISION IN ADVANCE...THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE
CASES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE RUN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL COME AFTER 06Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE COLD FRONT CAUSING AN EARLY DECREASE IN
TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WINDS ON FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
WELL-MIXED POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH...CERTAINLY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AS ITS OWN THREAT. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS LASTING EVEN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS LATE SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...OVERSPREADING RAIN. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TURN OFF FROM
SW-NE IN FAVOR OF PLAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE SUPPORT OF
THE UPPER LOW TRIGGERING THESE STRONGER STORMS CROSSES. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS UPPER LOW...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKY COVER ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SPLOTCHY IN PUTTING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR SUCH FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A COOL NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
THEN LET WARMER AIR WORK IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...AGAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND AS SUCH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO
OCCURRING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE DISTURBANCES WILL EXIT
EAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL WANE. CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY LIFT TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED. FARTHER
NORTH...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL
THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A ZONE OF
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 35 KT LIKELY FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ042>044-051>053-
060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS A WARM WAVE MOVES
EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREV DISCN...
WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM WAVE MOVES E
ALONG IT.
THE FRONT WAS STILL STALLED ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT FARTHER W...IT WAS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A
WARM FRONT. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING NEWD
OVER TOP OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT
TOUGH TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT AND THESE DISTURBANCES CROSS.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW TO SE ACROSS KY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART AND REFORM BY THE
TIME THE DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE MOVE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
THERE THEN.
THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO PA TONIGHT. THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MILD WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SPARSE.
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY JUST OVER AN INCH W OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...MOST OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE. ONLY THE RUC AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY COULD HANDLE THE RAINFALL TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIME
THE SOIL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 IN OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUGGEST DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HEATING S OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 700 J/KG.
WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT DID INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDER MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON GOOD SSW FLOW.
FRONT EXITS FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOW POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT.
SKIES CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND EXPECT A RATHER
BREEZY DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY WITH MILD BUT DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WINDY SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH ITS
ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
CREATE A RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LOWER QPF EXPECTED THERE. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD
SOAKER IN GENERAL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OMITTING THUNDER FOR NOW DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS. THEN...POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
THE AIR DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL KEEP LIQUID THRU TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WIND DOWN PRETTY FAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY THAT
COLD. SO BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...WITH A WARM WAVE
MOVING EWD ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLOW MOVING SPRING WARM FRONT...BUT ONE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KY WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE WARM WAVE WILL INSTIGATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY...THIS TIME MAINLY OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
ALSO TOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ...BUT THEY ARE
MOST LIKELY LATE TODAY...WHEN THEY CAN PRODUCE IFR IN
DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT N OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE AREAS OF POST-RAIN
MIST.
LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME S TO SW ONCE
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CRW AND HTS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN TEND TO GET HUNG UP FROM PKB TO CKB TO EKN AND
THEN DOWN THE MOUNTAINS TO BKW...NOT CLEANLY MOVING THROUGH THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL 02Z TO 04Z FRI. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW LATE TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM FCST. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TAFS TO TSRA FOR SOME SITES LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/03/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN TIER THROUGH MID MORNING IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE RUNS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAX ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL PASS
ALONG LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE MCV AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE LARGER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH PUTS THE NW
HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...THERE ARE REPORTS OF A SMOKE LAYER TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH MIXING.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS WILL PASS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20
KTS. NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE TAF.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER
THE UPSTATE...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-22 KTS THIS AFTN. AT KAVL
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS VERY EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...AND SHOWERS/TSTMS STAND A CHANCE OF REACHING KHKY BY MID
MORNING. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN DURING
THE AFTN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NW OF THE AIRFIELDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD THUNDER FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MADISON COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASES THE FARTHER EAST ONE
GOES...LIGHTNING IS BEING INDICATED CLOSE TO THE TN LINE AND THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE A FEW TSTMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.
AS OF 520 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPSLOPE AND UPGLIDE INDUCED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS. THEY HAVE HIGH
BASES AND SOME OF THE PCPN LIKELY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL UPTREND IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
ECHOES ON RADAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED ON THE HRRR.
FARTHER NORTH...THE DOWNSHEAR STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS OVER ERN TN IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SKY COVER WAS INCREASED WITH THIS UPDATE WHILE
THE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS I MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD
UPDATE...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB IN
CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12 UTC
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. ONCE THE MCV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE
LARGER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH PUTS THE NW
HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND EARLY TODAY...BUT NOTHING THAT MERITS
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20
KTS. NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE TAF.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER
THE UPSTATE...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-22 KTS THIS AFTN. AT KAVL
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS VERY EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY NW OF THE AIRFIELD. OTHERWISE...NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICITONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
852 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
TOO MANY REPORTS OF FZDZ AND THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THE MORNING HOURS OVER PARTS OF NE/NC SD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOME AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FZDZ SHOULD WANE TOWARD NOON.
UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR
THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT KPIR VSBY TO IMPROVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BANDS. KATY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-
EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-
SULLY-WALWORTH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
642 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
GETTING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE ABERDEEN AREA AND WEB CAMS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING IT AS WELL AS EVIDENCED BY DROPLETS ON
LENSES. RADAR IS TAKING ON MORE OF A DRIZZLE LOOK AS WELL. RAP
SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUPPORT THIS WITH A DEEP MOIST LAYER IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND DRYING ALOFT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
MAY GO ON FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. UPDATED FORECAST AND
GRIDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR
THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT KPIR VSBY TO IMPROVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BANDS. KATY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
533 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE ABERDEEN AREA AND WEB CAMS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING IT AS WELL AS EVIDENCED BY DROPLETS ON
LENSES. RADAR IS TAKING ON MORE OF A DRIZZLE LOOK AS WELL. RAP
SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUPPORT THIS WITH A DEEP MOIST LAYER IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND DRYING ALOFT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
MAY GO ON FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. UPDATED FORECAST AND
GRIDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON...WITH VFR VSBYS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW. KATY LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI JUST NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MAJORITY OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING AS THE RESULT OF A MATURE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN
THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVEN/T SHOWN MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THUS FAR. ALSO...SHORT TERM MODELS DIDN/T
INITIALIZE THE OVERNIGHT QPF TOO WELL IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUN
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THINK ITS A BIT OVERDONE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS UNDER A CAPPING INVERSION. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT...SPREADING
60-100 DM 500 MB MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY A 100KT 250 MB UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT
OR ABOVE 7 C/KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INITIALLY BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6 TO -8...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
40-55 KTS...0-1 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300
M2/S2...FAVORABLE LCL/S AND SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
TOWARDS EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE AMOUNT OF DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE INITIALLY PRESENT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER OF ANY DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OZARKS EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (QLCS`S) ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT WITH A TORNADIC
THREAT POSSIBLE WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. WILL
HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MEANWHILE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR TODAY/TONIGHT GIVEN CURRENT/SHORT TERM TRENDS. DAY
SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS FOR CONSIDERATION OF AN
ADVISORY IF NEEDED LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN
IN ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
ALSO KEPT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR DECK WAS LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MS AT 07Z... WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTH INTO MEM AND OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z.
NAM AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOW TSRA INTO THE JBR AREA TOWARD
12Z. HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...BUT PREFER THE HRRR SOLUTION
GIVEN THE BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. BETTER TSRA CHANCES APPEAR IN
ORDER IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME.
FOR THE LATE EVENING... STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE APPEARS WILL
ARRIVE IN MEM NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT OUTBOUND
PUSH. IN THE INTERIM... LOW CHANCES OF DISCRETE TSRA POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE LATE EVENING MEM ARRIVALS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 80 61 70 45 / 70 90 10 0
MKL 78 62 69 40 / 50 90 10 0
JBR 78 55 64 40 / 80 90 10 0
TUP 80 63 74 43 / 40 90 40 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE`LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT`S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE`VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE`S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
JACKSON
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KS/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...POTTER...
RANDALL...WHEELER.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1007 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRISTOL VA/TN AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC BY NOON. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR VALID TAF PD. SFC
FRONT EXTENDS FROM KDAN WESTWARD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH SOME -RA BETWEEN 12Z/8AM-16Z/NOON. CLOUD BASES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR...035-060KFT AGL. AFTER
NOON...SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR BUT THEN AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BEST
INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z/4PM AND 02Z/10PM THIS EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z/8AM...THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
AND BE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GREATEST AREA OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH WITH WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
122 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...THEN
PASS NEARBY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THEY NYC METRO AREA
WHERE MAX TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET ALREADY...AND TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CT WHERE STRONG MIXING HAS MIXED DOWN QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER SEA BREEZE TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS OBS INDICATE THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE CT COAST...AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NY HARBOR. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR SFC
WINDS AS IT MATCHED UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING US A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. H9
FORECAST TEMP THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5C...THEREFORE EXPECTING
HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMEST AREAS OF NE NJ...NYC
AND ADJACENT AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE
WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA...SUPPORTING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE EAST. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
WE LOSE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIFT...SO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH AN OVERCAST SKY AND AN
EAST FLOW...TEMPS DURING THE DAY ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW/TRIPLE POINT
APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO US LATE AT NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LATEST ECMWF TO LIFT TRIPLE POINT LOW
OFF TO THE NE SAT MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
LINGERING CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR CT/LONG ISLAND...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY DRY CONDITIONS ON A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW...AND HIGHS 55-60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING LOWS INTO UPPER 20S WELL
INLAND AND 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE COMBO OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
S-SW FLOW...AND WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS HIGHS FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST SHOULD REACH 60-65...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS HIGHS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT TO THE MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SAT NIGHT VIA WEAK WAA AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS MOVES NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
FROM MON INTO MON EVENING AS A LEADING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. PER WPC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT STILL TO THE
SOUTH MON MORNING AND A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW
NEARBY...CONTINUED LIKELY POP INTO TUE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST DESPITE FROPA. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. DRY CONDS FCST FOR NOW
FOR WED...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF AVG...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG BY WED
VIA CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY. SUB-VFR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS
VARY FROM WEST TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION RIGHT NOW IS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CT COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED.
SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. WINDS HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 03Z
ON FRIDAY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR AFTER 07Z FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS COULD FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI NIGHT...A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY.
.MON...VFR. -RA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR
POSSIBLE. INCREASING E/SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA.
.TUES...IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT A BETTER CHANCE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR
ALL WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY ON THE ERN
SOUND/BAYS SAT AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR ALL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS...THEN INCREASING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
COULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/2 INCH EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...THEN
PASS NEARBY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THEY NYC METRO AREA
WHERE MAX TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET ALREADY...AND TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CT WHERE STRONG MIXING HAS MIXED DOWN QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER SEA BREEZE TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS OBS INDICATE THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE CT COAST...AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NY HARBOR. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR SFC
WINDS AS IT MATCHED UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING US A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. H9
FORECAST TEMP THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5C...THEREFORE EXPECTING
HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMEST AREAS OF NE NJ...NYC
AND ADJACENT AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE
WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA...SUPPORTING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE EAST. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
WE LOSE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIFT...SO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH AN OVERCAST SKY AND AN
EAST FLOW...TEMPS DURING THE DAY ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW/TRIPLE POINT
APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO US LATE AT NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LATEST ECMWF TO LIFT TRIPLE POINT LOW
OFF TO THE NE SAT MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
LINGERING CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR CT/LONG ISLAND...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY DRY CONDITIONS ON A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW...AND HIGHS 55-60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING LOWS INTO UPPER 20S WELL
INLAND AND 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE COMBO OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
S-SW FLOW...AND WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS HIGHS FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST SHOULD REACH 60-65...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS HIGHS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT TO THE MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SAT NIGHT VIA WEAK WAA AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS MOVES NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
FROM MON INTO MON EVENING AS A LEADING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. PER WPC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT STILL TO THE
SOUTH MON MORNING AND A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW
NEARBY...CONTINUED LIKELY POP INTO TUE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST DESPITE FROPA. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. DRY CONDS FCST FOR NOW
FOR WED...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF AVG...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG BY WED
VIA CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. SEA BREEZES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER.
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
03Z ON FRIDAY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NIGHT...A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY.
.MON...VFR. -RA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR
POSSIBLE. INCREASING E/SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT A BETTER CHANCE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR
ALL WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY ON THE ERN
SOUND/BAYS SAT AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR ALL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS...THEN INCREASING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
COULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/2 INCH EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...updated short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
An upper trough rotating through the region will drive a narrow
deformation precipitation band across the northern counties (from
around Syracuse through Garden City and Hays. Thermal profiles
indicate rain is the main precipitation type expected with only a
small probability of some wet bulbing occurring in the lowest levels
mainly over the far western counties. Between he models, The HRRR
weakens the precipitation field much more rapidly than the far more
robust NAM solutions. The airmass across the Central Plains is not
particularly cold, ans most of the colder air over NW Kansas is due
to the rain and snow cooled column. As the precipitation band
weakens and moves east this evening, northwest surface winds will
slowly weaken with time through the overnight. As skies clear
overnight radiational cooling should help surface temperatures to
plummet into the mid 20s. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on
Friday with highs expected in the upper 50s to a few low 60s in
places like the Red Hills. Winds speeds will be below average as the
surface ridge moves across western Kansas in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
The longwave trough now over western North America will be
transitioning eastward across the continent through the next several
days. As today`s shortwave trough over the central Plains lifts out
of the longwave trough, another shortwave now moving into the west
Coast will move through the mean longwave trough position and out
over the central Plains through the upcoming weekend. As this next
wave approaches, modest low level moisture return from the southern
plains Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation chances will be
increasing during the day Saturday and continuing through Sunday
before diminishing as the main upper wave continues east Sunday
night. Model sounding profiles appear warm enough that whatever
precipitation occurs will stay in liquid form. With colder mid level
temperatures accompanying the trough, there should be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms through the period. Will
highlight the time period from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for the convective activity.
An upper level ridge will be building over the west Coast this
weekend and spreading out over the central part of the country
through the middle part of next week. Dry and warmer weather will
return to the central High Plains from Tuesday on. Daytime high
temperatures could climb into the 80s across southwest Kansas on
Wednesday. The models suggest that a weak cold front will push south
through western Kansas by Thursday which would knock high temperatures
back somewhat for late week. Details on the timing and strength of
this cold front are not real clear this far out, however.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
IFR stratus will continue through the afternoon as a precipitation
producing deformation axis moves across northwest Kansas. The
forcing will be weakening with time, however the HRRR does indicate
potential for rain at KHYS by late in the afternoon and this
evening, with less certainty for precipitation at KDDC. IFR ceilings
should rapidly improve during the evening as subsidence behind the
deformation zone develops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 59 36 57 / 10 0 0 30
GCK 28 59 35 58 / 50 0 0 30
EHA 28 59 38 57 / 10 0 0 40
LBL 28 60 37 57 / 10 0 0 40
HYS 27 54 33 61 / 90 0 0 20
P28 35 58 35 60 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough moving
eastward out of the Four Corner Regions into the Western High Plains
today bringing the possibility for precip to portions of central and
western Kansas. As the upper level system moves into the southern
Rockies early this morning, the surface low across extreme
southeastern Colorado will begin to shift eastward along the Kansas
and Oklahoma border then lift northeast across eastern Kansas as a
cold front begins to push through western Kansas. Although low level
moisture will be lacking with the bulk of it blocked off to our
east, enough mid level moisture exists with the approaching trough
axis to set the stage for rain development along and behind the
front as it pushes through this afternoon. The best chance for
precip is expected to be across more northern portions of the
forecast area, including west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
in central Kansas where H7 frontogenetic banding is projected to
occur in better proximity to the mid/upper level wave. Enough cold
air advection in the lower levels may be enough to support brief
periods of light to moderate snow across west central and central
Kansas with limited snow accumulations possible, especially if
mixed with rain. Any precip chances will quickly come to an end
this evening as the upper level wave quickly lifts northeast into
the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will be well below normal today as cold air surges
southward in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas
this afternoon. With temperatures down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas early this morning,
look for highs only up into the 40s(F) here today, particularly with
lingering clouds through early this afternoon. A few 50s(F) may be
possible in south central Kansas where the frontal boundary remains
fairly stationary. Look for temperatures to fall easily into the
30s(F) tonight with mid to upper 20s(F) possible by sunrise Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
The longwave trough now over western North America will be
transitioning eastward across the continent through the next several
days. As today`s shortwave trough over the central Plains lifts out
of the longwave trough, another shortwave now moving into the west
Coast will move through the mean longwave trough position and out
over the central Plains through the upcoming weekend. As this next
wave approaches, modest low level moisture return from the southern
plains Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation chances will be
increasing during the day Saturday and continuing through Sunday
before diminishing as the main upper wave continues east Sunday
night. Model sounding profiles appear warm enough that whatever
precipitation occurs will stay in liquid form. With colder mid level
temperatures accompanying the trough, there should be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms through the period. Will
highlight the time period from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for the convective activity.
An upper level ridge will be building over the west Coast this
weekend and spreading out over the central part of the country
through the middle part of next week. Dry and warmer weather will
return to the central High Plains from Tuesday on. Daytime high
temperatures could climb into the 80s across southwest Kansas on
Wednesday. The models suggest that a weak cold front will push south
through western Kansas by Thursday which would knock high temperatures
back somewhat for late week. Details on the timing and strength of
this cold front are not real clear this far out, however.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
IFR stratus will continue through the afternoon as a precipitation
producing deformation axis moves across northwest Kansas. The
forcing will be weakening with time, however the HRRR does indicate
potential for rain at KHYS by late in the afternoon and this
evening, with less certainty for precipitation at KDDC. IFR ceilings
should rapidly improve during the evening as subsidence behind the
deformation zone develops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 59 36 57 / 10 0 0 30
GCK 28 59 35 58 / 50 0 0 30
EHA 28 59 38 57 / 10 0 0 40
LBL 28 60 37 57 / 10 0 0 40
HYS 27 54 33 61 / 90 0 0 20
P28 35 58 35 60 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.
Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.
Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.
By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.
Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.
Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.
The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.
Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.
.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.
This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We`ll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.
Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
Active convection will take low VFR or MVFR conditions to temporary
IFR conditions. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark most
restrictive flight conditions, with severe weather possible from
late afternoon til system passes. Strong gusty southerlies ahead of
the system will shift to the west late tonight after its passage.
Clouds should disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight
conditions in the wake of the system`s departure.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
329 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SENDING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AFTER THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING OVER
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT TO SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN POTENTIALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT. THEN...SHOWERS
AND STORM WILL REENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER. WITH TREES YET TO LEAF OUT
HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF GROUNDWATER THEY
WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS.
THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL
BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TOMORROW/S THREAT AGAIN REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BUILD BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PUT THE
FRONT THROUGH HERE AROUND MIDDAY...SO THAT WOULD SUPPORT A LESSER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN SHOULD THE FRONT COME THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH SO A WIND HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD WILL END QUIETLY AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
NICE...BUT COOLER WEEKEND. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO THE
60S BY SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PLACE EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TROUGHING SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THIS
TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
COOLER AND PERHAPS UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. THUS...AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS COLD AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS
NOT COLD ENOUGH. WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING THE INITIAL LINE INTO THE TAF SITES
IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH
DRIER. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL AS IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING MUCH
BETTER LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR DATA. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB
MENTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH THE INITIAL LINE AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURFACE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH TENDENCY FOR THE INBOUND
LINE OF CONVECTION TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON ITS SOUTHERN END.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO
RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WITH TREES YET TO
LEAF OUT HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF
GROUNDWATER THEY WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE WATCH THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING THE INITIAL LINE INTO THE TAF SITES
IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH
DRIER. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL AS IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING MUCH
BETTER LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR DATA. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB
MENTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH THE INITIAL LINE AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURFACE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEORGERIAN/ABE
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH TENDENCY FOR THE INBOUND
LINE OF CONVECTION TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON ITS SOUTHERN END.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO
RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WITH TREES YET TO
LEAF OUT HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF
GROUNDWATER THEY WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE WATCH THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEORGERIAN/ABE
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.
LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 / 60 40 10 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 / 60 30 10 60
KAEX 66 76 51 68 / 80 30 10 40
KLFT 68 81 57 69 / 60 60 20 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THAT AS OF 2 PM...SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING NEAR 1500-2000J/KG WITH LI`S RANGING FROM -4 TO -6. OUR
SAVING GRACE THUS FAR HAS BEEN SBCIN VALUES RANGING NEAR
100-200J/KG. WHERE THE CAP IS BREAKING IS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
AS OF 2 PM WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ADM...TO JUST WEST OF DTO
AND BWD. MESOANALYSIS CLOSER TO OUR AREA SHOWS THAT OUR REGION OF
LESS CINH WAS ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE
STARTING TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POP UP THIS AFTN.
WILL BASE THIS EVENTS FORECAST CLOSELY ON THE HRRR FOR THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOURS AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. HRRR SHOWING DRYLINE CONVECTION GROWING AND
INCREASING IN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN WHAT WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN THE REGION OF WEAKER CINH...FEEL LIKE THE I-35 DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES BETWEEN
23-01Z. THESE CELLS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...
WILL EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THAT ORDER. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF
TORNADO WATCH #52 BY OR SHORTLY CLOSE TO 02Z THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF S AR/NE
TX AND N LA. IT APPEARS WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION REACHING A MLU TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND LINE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. BEHIND THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING LINE WILL
LIKELY BE RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z. NOT
EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO BE SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS
OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE TRUE
FRONT ITSELF. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SE PARISHES BY
12Z FRI. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RUNNING FOR OUR SE ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT`S LEFT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NW GULF COAST
FOR SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO RETURN BACK NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FORMS ON THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SE TX COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS MLU SUN EVENING AND
NEAR MEMPHIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND
EVENT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING
CONVECTION AND GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT
FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AND ATTM...THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES OR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOWER TOLEDO BEND TO
MONROE LOUISIANA LINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
EVENT GETS NEARER IN TIME. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/18Z TAFS...COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF I-30 HAS
BEEN ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MOVEMENT OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
PREDICTED. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. ABUNDANT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE CONVECTION OCCURS. THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSTMS AS ONE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS A FEW HRS LATER AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 71 46 67 51 / 70 0 0 20 40
MLU 63 74 46 65 50 / 70 20 0 20 50
DEQ 49 67 38 66 47 / 70 0 0 10 20
TXK 52 68 44 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 30
ELD 56 71 43 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 40
TYR 51 70 46 65 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
GGG 53 70 46 66 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
LFK 57 72 48 67 54 / 50 10 10 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
101 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/18Z TAFS...COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF I-30 HAS
BEEN ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MOVEMENT OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
PREDICTED. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. ABUNDANT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE CONVECTION OCCURS. THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSTMS AS ONE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS A FEW HRS LATER AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF TUL WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR AN OKC...SPS...ABI LINE. DRYLINE
REMAINS JUST WEST OF A ABI...SJT LINE AS WELL. CONVECTION THUS FAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/SE OK AND W
AR HAS BEEN ELEVATED AS THEIR REMAINS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CAP TRYING TO ERODE ALONG
AND NEAR A LINE HUGO OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TERRELL TX AND AS A
RESULT...NEW CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE MAY BE TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE 35HDFT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WAS PREVALENT IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE PLANED AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO THIS
WILL TELL US MORE.
CONCERNING THE UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE 12Z NAM AS IT CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON...
SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST IS ALL WE MAY SEE...
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE REGION BEYOND 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH NEW CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LINE...OR INTO OUR REGION. THUS...FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT NOT BY MUCH. KEPT
LIKELY WORDING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES HOWEVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC OUTSIDE PRESENTLY...WE ARE REALLY STARTING
TO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AS OF 15Z. FOR THIS REASON...
BUMPED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS UPWARD...THUS NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD BREAKS...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE
WHAT THE CURRENT FCST INDICATED SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 56 71 46 69 / 40 60 0 0 20
MLU 84 63 74 46 68 / 20 80 10 0 20
DEQ 79 49 67 38 67 / 60 60 0 0 10
TXK 83 52 68 44 68 / 40 60 0 0 10
ELD 83 56 71 43 68 / 40 80 0 0 10
TYR 84 51 70 46 66 / 40 50 0 0 20
GGG 84 53 70 46 68 / 40 60 0 0 20
LFK 85 57 72 48 69 / 30 60 10 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF TUL WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR AN OKC...SPS...ABI LINE. DRYLINE
REMAINS JUST WEST OF A ABI...SJT LINE AS WELL. CONVECTION THUS FAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/SE OK AND W
AR HAS BEEN ELEVATED AS THEIR REMAINS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CAP TRYING TO ERODE ALONG
AND NEAR A LINE HUGO OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TERRELL TX AND AS A
RESULT...NEW CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE MAY BE TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE 35HDFT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WAS PREVALENT IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE PLANED AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO THIS
WILL TELL US MORE.
CONCERNING THE UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE 12Z NAM AS IT CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON...
SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST IS ALL WE MAY SEE...
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE REGION BEYOND 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH NEW CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LINE...OR INTO OUR REGION. THUS...FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT NOT BY MUCH. KEPT
LIKELY WORDING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES HOWEVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC OUTSIDE PRESENTLY...WE ARE REALLY STARTING
TO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AS OF 15Z. FOR THIS REASON...
BUMPED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS UPWARD...THUS NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD BREAKS...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE
WHAT THE CURRENT FCST INDICATED SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 10-20KTS FOR MOST WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE MID MORNING
AND ALL AFTERNOON. OUR CLIMB WINDS BACK RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE TO
SW 20-40KTS ON INTO THE MID LEVELS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EDGING
INTO CENTRAL TX NOW AND WILL SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THAT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS 21Z-0409Z /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 56 71 46 69 / 50 60 0 0 20
MLU 83 63 74 46 68 / 30 80 10 0 20
DEQ 79 49 67 38 67 / 60 60 0 0 10
TXK 81 52 68 44 68 / 50 60 0 0 10
ELD 82 56 71 43 68 / 50 80 0 0 10
TYR 82 51 70 46 66 / 50 50 0 0 20
GGG 82 53 70 46 68 / 50 60 0 0 20
LFK 84 57 72 48 69 / 40 60 10 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
217 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
ADDED JACKSON AND CALHOUN TO THE ADVISORY. ICING AMOUNTS OVER A
TENTH BEING REPORTED WITH SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES SHOWING UP.
BAND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOOK FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OBS SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
MOVE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.
WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOOK FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OBS SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
MOVE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.
WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
104 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).
THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.
WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Windy conditions exist out ahead of the approaching cold front.
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have developed over
the past couple of hours in the warm sector. Conditions are
generally VFR falling to MVFR near the thunderstorms.
These conditions will continue through the afternoon into the
evening with the approach of the cold front. Stronger storms could
produce large hail and winds in excess of 50 kts.
Front is expected to move through the aerodromes after 02z. As the
front passes...winds will veer to a west to northwest direction
and diminish slightly. In addition...expect MVFR ceilings between
06-14z. After 14z...ceilings should improve to VFR with winds
increasing and becoming gusty from the northwest.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Robust initially positively tilted upper trough exiting eastern
CO/NM will take on a more negative tilt this afternoon/evening as it
lifts northeastward. Latest surface analysis reveals a rather
complex structure. Convection from earlier today sent an outflow
boundary into southwest MO where new strong/isolated severe
convection has formed. Satellite imagery and surface obs suggest a
subtle warm front lies near a COU to MCI line while a true wind
shift lies farther south extending from an area of low pressure near
CNU eastward through Linn county KS and Bates county MO. Believe
with continued surface heating and pressure falls due to the
approaching upstream trough the warm front will jump to the I-70
corridor this afternoon possibly reaching into northern MO by late
afternoon.
Very moist unstable air from southeast KS and southern MO will
spread into the southern half of the CWA this afternoon. While
regional morning soundings showed a moderate cap in place latest NAM
Bufr soundings indicate it will totally erode around 18z allowing
access to 2500-3000J/kg instability. Latest radar indicates isolated
cells already showing up over east central KS. Believe ongoing
convection just south of the CWA will not interfere with afternoon
development as no additional convection has formed upstream.
Latest HRRR is the preferred convective allowing model as it holds
the warm front a bit further south and had better handle on current
placement of the surface low. Believe convective initiation will take
place along the cold front from extreme east central KS, south of
LWC, south-southwestward along the cold front around or shortly
after 18Z. While the HRRR shows activity may not be initially robust
current thinking is once the cap breaks convection will develop
quite rapidly. 0-6km bulk shear around 50kt will support rotating
updrafts while MUCAPES in excess of 2500J/kg will provide plenty of
energy for robust convection. While model soundings forecast nearly
unidirectional shear after 21Z believe initially there will be
sufficient boundary layer shear to support discrete supercells
through mid afternoon, especially along the warm front and northeast
of the surface low. 17z surface obs show a subtle backing of surface
winds as well as an uptick in speeds over southeast KS. This will
only enhance the convergence along the cold front and support
supercell development. Any veering of the surface winds within the
warm sector past 200 degrees will be less supportive of severe
weather.
Initial storm mode will be discrete supercells for the first few
hours before a more unidirectional shear by late afternoon evolves
into line segments and ultimately into a squall-line as the activity
moves into central MO early this evening. Freezing level between
11-12k ft agl this afternoon. Initial threshold for quarter size
hail will require height of 50dBZ echoes in excess of 28-29k ft.
This will be calibrated later after reports start coming in. All
storm modes are in play with isolated tornadoes most favored along
the warm front and any discrete storms within the warm sector. In
addition, precipitatble water values two standard deviations above
normal east of the cold front will support flash flooding over those
areas which already received excessive rains over the past two days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Short Term (Today through Friday):
The main concern during the short term will be for continued flash
flooding as well as areal and river flooding associated with ongoing
morning convection. This flooding will continue and is expected over
the southern portion of the CWA where storms have been training over
the same area for several hours. There will also be continued
chances for an isolated severe storm through 5AM with the main
threat being marginally large hail. These storms are expected to
weaken and shift east of the area by mid morning as the LLJ which
fueled these storms weakens and become refocused out to the west.
This afternoon`s forecast is contingent how how quickly we can
recover from morning convection. What is evident is that a vigorous
upper level trough will move out of the Four Corners region this
morning into the central Plains. As it does it will take on a
negative tilt. In response to this upper trough move into the
Plains, cyclogenesis will be occurring across eastern Kansas where a
surface cold front will be strengthening. A surface low will develop
in the vicinity of Kansas City or St. Joseph by 18Z with a warm
front extending eastward perhaps right along the Hwy 36 corridor and
a cold front extending south-southwestward to near Chanute. It is
south and east of those boundaries that will be in the warm sector
an ripe for another round of severe weather again providing the
atmosphere can recover. High-res short range models suggest that the
atmosphere does recover by 18Z-20Z and thunderstorms will develop
along or near a Cameron MO. to Blue Mound KS line. Model soundings
are suggesting 1500-2500J/Kg of CAPE for storms to work with
provided they do develop. Plenty of moisture will also be available
for these storms with dewpoints soaring into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the cold front. Low and deep layer shear will also be
very strong. This would suggest that discrete thunderstorms would be
the initial mode of thunderstorms development during the afternoon
with large hail and even an isolated tornado possible. As the cold
front pushes through the CWA in the late afternoon/early evening it
is very possible that thunderstorm will congeal into a squall line
with damaging winds and isolated tornado as the main threats. Also,
there will be the continued threat for flash flooding, areal
flooding and river flooding especially across portions of west
central Missouri and east central Kansas where 3"-5" of
precipitation has fallen over the past 36 hours. Model
soundings/output suggest that the squall line will exit the eastern
CWA by 9PM.
Tonight the upper level trough is then expected to move from eastern
Nebraska into northeastern Iowa. Wrap around moisture will be
possible across northern Missouri and as such have keep slight
chance to chance POPs there. Precipitation will be in the form of
light rain but light snow could mix in early Friday morning.
Otherwise, Friday will start out cloudy and gradually clear during
the day. Conditions will be rather blustery though with strong
northwest winds and highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Long Term (Friday night - Wednesday):
High pressure will move into the area Friday night providing good
radiational cooling with lows falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
High pressure will traverse the area Saturday providing poor mixing
however sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 50s
to near 60. An upper level trough will move out of the central
Rockies into the central Plains late Saturday night into Sunday.
This will allow showers to develop over the area on Sunday into
Sunday night. Behind this upper level trough the area will be under
northwest flow aloft. A few weak shortwaves will move through the
area on Monday and Tuesday providing for chance showers through the
period. Surface high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday
and conditions will again dry out. Highs through this period will
range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A few light showers will be possible at the terminals through 13Z
with MVFR cigs/vis. Showers will come to an end this morning but
cigs/vis will remain in the MVFR range with cigs perhaps even falling
back into IFR. Winds will be out of the east this morning around
10kts and they will gradually veer to the south by this afternoon. a
cold front will get organized across east Kansas this afternoon and
there is a brief window between 19Z-22Z for thunderstorms...possibly severe...
to affect MCI and MKC. MVFR cigs/vis will continue through the
afternoon. Between 21Z-22Z the cold front will move through the
terminals effectively ending the storm chances and veering winds to
the west around 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts. Expect MVFR cigs
to continue behind the front through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ037>040-
043>046.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...
ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.
THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.
THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.
THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.
IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.
HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.
TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.
FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.
TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
VSBYS IN INTERMITTENT DRZL AND SCT SHWRS. AFTER 21Z ANY RAIN/DRZL
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -SN. N WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE
...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: IFR -SN ENDS BY MID EVENING. THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
FRI MORNING: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 27 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES AS POSTED FROM 403 AM.
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST. THINGS ARE EVOLVING AS
EXPECTED. IT IS NOW APPARENTLY SNOWING AT ORD. THE NDOR CAMERA
OVER SW CUSTER COUNTY APPEARS TO SHOW SKIFFS OF SNOW ON GRASSY
AREAS. AM GROWING CONCERNED THAT ACCUMS WILL BE HARD TO COMEBY
WITHIN THE ADVISORY...GIVEN MILD GROUND TEMPS AND ABOVE FRZG
BOUNDARY LAYER. MCCOOK IS DOWN TO 3/4 SM VISIBILITY IN -SN. THAT`S
THE KIND OF INTENSITY WE WILL NEED TO GET ANY MINOR ACCUMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
EXAMINING 12Z LBF/ABR/OAX SOUNDINGS AND 11Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS READY TO PRODUCE SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUB-FRZG
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND W. WE ARE
JUST WAITING FOR LIFT TO DEVELOP AND THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER TO
SATURATE.
THE UEX 88D SHOWS CLOUD TOPS AROUND 11K FT...AND THE BOTTOM OF THE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS FCST AROUND 12K FT. SO IT`S JUST A WAITING
GAME.
THE 13Z RAP SUGGESTS SATURATION FIRST OCCURS FROM GOTHENBURG-COZAD
UP TO ORD 12PM-1PM...AND THEN E INTO THE TRI-CITIES 4PM-5PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.
AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.
AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
VSBYS IN INTERMITTENT DRZL AND SCT SHWRS. AFTER 21Z ANY RAIN/DRZL
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -SN. N WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE
...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: IFR -SN ENDS BY MID EVENING. THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
FRI MORNING: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 27 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-
062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS A WARM WAVE MOVES
EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREV DISCN...
WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM WAVE MOVES E
ALONG IT.
THE FRONT WAS STILL STALLED ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT FARTHER W...IT WAS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A
WARM FRONT. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING NEWD
OVER TOP OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT
TOUGH TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT AND THESE DISTURBANCES CROSS.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW TO SE ACROSS KY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART AND REFORM BY THE
TIME THE DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE MOVE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
THERE THEN.
THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO PA TONIGHT. THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MILD WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SPARSE.
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY JUST OVER AN INCH W OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...MOST OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE. ONLY THE RUC AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY COULD HANDLE THE RAINFALL TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIME
THE SOIL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 IN OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUGGEST DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HEATING S OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 700 J/KG.
WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT DID INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDER MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON GOOD SSW FLOW.
FRONT EXITS FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOW POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT.
SKIES CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND EXPECT A RATHER
BREEZY DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY WITH MILD BUT DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WINDY SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH ITS
ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
CREATE A RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LOWER QPF EXPECTED THERE. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD
SOAKER IN GENERAL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OMITTING THUNDER FOR NOW DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS. THEN...POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
THE AIR DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL KEEP LIQUID THRU TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WIND DOWN PRETTY FAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY THAT
COLD. SO BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY...
EXPECT FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OH/KY MOVES INTO THE REGION. AFTER
20Z...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN AND AROUND
THE SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL END AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR/IFR FROM THE WEST
AFT 04Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
DETERIORATE AND BECOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN THE SHOUWERS AND STORMS.
LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME S TO SW ONCE
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE SW
LATE TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM FCST. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TAFS TO TSRA FOR SOME SITES LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M L M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
BASICALLY HAVE AXED THE WARNINGS AND REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES AS IT
APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE EAST OF THE
ABR CWA. UPDATES HAVE ALL BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
IMPACTED VISBY DUE TO SNOW IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION WOULD BE WATERTOWN WHEN THIS SYSTEM REACHES
PEAK INTENSITY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR
KABR/KATY...VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-
CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1214 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
BASICALLY HAVE AXED THE WARNINGS AND REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES AS IT
APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE EAST OF THE
ABR CWA. UPDATES HAVE ALL BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR
THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT KPIR VSBY TO IMPROVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BANDS. KATY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-
CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FIRST HOWEVER...SOME ISOL TO
SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH SOME DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME. AFT 06Z HOWEVER...PRE FRONTAL IMPACT WILL HONE IN ON
THE MID STATE AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST AFT 12Z WITH THE ACTIVITY
ENDING AT THE CSV AREA AROUND 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON HOLD FOR NOW ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CAP EROSION THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO WANT TO KICK IN TOWARD 00Z. SO...STILL EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS IN THE
WAY OF AFT COVERAGE. GFS 12Z DATA IS COMPARATIVELY DRIER THAN THE
06Z RUN.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS CURRENT VALUES OUTPACE
GUIDANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
OTW...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH GFS MODEL MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH TODAYS QPF TOTAL IN THE NW. MAY LOWER
POPS LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS
FIRST. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR MID TN AIRPORTS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY SPAWN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. NAM/HRRR
SHOWING VERY STRONG LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BUT NSSL WRF
WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL OVERNIGHT IS DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION AT CKV/BNA IN THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS 12-17 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SQUALL
LINE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL 3 AIRPORTS TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SO CONCENTRATED
MORE ON THE SHORTER RANGE. CURRENTLY BAND OF SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
FORMING SHORT LINES WITHIN EXTENDS FROM BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY
DOWN THROUGH HARTSVILLE...SPARTA AND INTO THE CROSSVILLE AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED JUST AHEAD OF 850 MBAR DEWPOINT AXIS
THAT RUNS FROM SAINT LOUIS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 07Z.
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HAS CONTINUED TO PUNCH NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE SAINT LOUIS AREA WITH AN EASTERN LOBE
OF LESSER SPEEDS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD HAVE THEM EXITING MY CWA
BY 12Z.
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE ALREADY EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND JUST
NOW ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD CRANK THINGS UP FROM
ARKANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO
LATER THIS MORNING. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORM STRUNG OUT
FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THEN UP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER BY MID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SAGGING DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
I`VE TRIMMED POPS BACK FOR TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 00Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THEN ALIGN
ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID-EVENING (02Z-03Z). SQUALL LINE THEN
WORKS EAST TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE FRIDAY MORNING ENDING
SEVERE THREAT. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY. DRY SATURDAY BUT RAIN MOVES BACK IN ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSHES
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID STATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TAKES CONTROL NEXT WEEK KEEPING
A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS THIS WAY LATTER PART OF WORK
WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON HOLD FOR NOW ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CAP EROSION THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO WANT TO KICK IN TOWARD 00Z. SO...STILL EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS IN THE
WAY OF AFT COVERAGE. GFS 12Z DATA IS COMPARATIVELY DRIER THAN THE
06Z RUN.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS CURRENT VALUES OUTPACE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
OTW...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH GFS MODEL MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH TODAYS QPF TOTAL IN THE NW. MAY LOWER
POPS LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS
FIRST. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR MID TN AIRPORTS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY SPAWN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. NAM/HRRR
SHOWING VERY STRONG LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BUT NSSL WRF
WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL OVERNIGHT IS DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION AT CKV/BNA IN THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS 12-17 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SQUALL
LINE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL 3 AIRPORTS TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SO CONCENTRATED
MORE ON THE SHORTER RANGE. CURRENTLY BAND OF SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
FORMING SHORT LINES WITHIN EXTENDS FROM BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY
DOWN THROUGH HARTSVILLE...SPARTA AND INTO THE CROSSVILLE AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED JUST AHEAD OF 850 MBAR DEWPOINT AXIS
THAT RUNS FROM SAINT LOUIS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 07Z.
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HAS CONTINUED TO PUNCH NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE SAINT LOUIS AREA WITH AN EASTERN LOBE
OF LESSER SPEEDS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD HAVE THEM EXITING MY CWA
BY 12Z.
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE ALREADY EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND JUST
NOW ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD CRANK THINGS UP FROM
ARKANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO
LATER THIS MORNING. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORM STRUNG OUT
FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THEN UP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER BY MID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SAGGING DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
I`VE TRIMMED POPS BACK FOR TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 00Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THEN ALIGN
ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID-EVENING (02Z-03Z). SQUALL LINE THEN
WORKS EAST TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE FRIDAY MORNING ENDING
SEVERE THREAT. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY. DRY SATURDAY BUT RAIN MOVES BACK IN ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSHES
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID STATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TAKES CONTROL NEXT WEEK KEEPING
A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS THIS WAY LATTER PART OF WORK
WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
139 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
WHO KNEW THERE COULD BE SO MUCH WEATHER WITH NO PRECIPITATION?
INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GET CUTE, WE JUST BLANKETED THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN A WIND ADVISORY AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8
PM. HOWEVER, THE WORST WINDS AND DUST WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 7 PM.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS ACTUALLY PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. IN FACT, AT LAST OBSERVATION, CLAYTON REPORTED MODERATE
RAIN AT 40 F. THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH
OF AN ADRIAN TO MIAMI LINE.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AWW WILL BE
IN EFFECT AT KAMA 20Z-01Z. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
BLDU, WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO AT LEAST THE LOW-END MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER, IFR OR EVEN LOWER VSBYS CAN`T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY
20Z-23Z.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AT KDHT 20Z-23Z AND LOW CONFIDENCE
AT KGUY 21Z-00Z.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT AT KDHT AND KGUY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KDHT AND KGUY IS MODERATE.
JACKSON
UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
BOOTLEG AND HEREFORD HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON`T
THINK WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THERE
COULD BE A ROGUE GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH IF MIXING TAPS INTO THE
MID-LEVEL JET. WE MAY ALSO END UP HAVING TO ISSUE A SHORT-FUSE BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEREFORD AWOS IS ALREADY OBSERVING
A VISIBILITY OF 5 SM, BUT WE`LL HOLD OFF TO SEE IF VISIBILITIES DROP
TO A MILE OR LESS. HOWEVER, IT IS CONCERNING THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD, WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD PROXY FOR THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DUST REGIONS.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE`LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT`S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE`VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE`S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
JACKSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KS/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AWW WILL BE
IN EFFECT AT KAMA 20Z-01Z. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
BLDU, WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO AT LEAST THE LOW-END MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER, IFR OR EVEN LOWER VSBYS CAN`T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY
20Z-23Z.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AT KDHT 20Z-23Z AND LOW CONFIDENCE
AT KGUY 21Z-00Z.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT AT KDHT AND KGUY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KDHT AND KGUY IS MODERATE.
JACKSON
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
BOOTLEG AND HEREFORD HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON`T
THINK WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THERE
COULD BE A ROGUE GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH IF MIXING TAPS INTO THE
MID-LEVEL JET. WE MAY ALSO END UP HAVING TO ISSUE A SHORT-FUSE BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEREFORD AWOS IS ALREADY OBSERVING
A VISIBILITY OF 5 SM, BUT WE`LL HOLD OFF TO SEE IF VISIBILITIES DROP
TO A MILE OR LESS. HOWEVER, IT IS CONCERNING THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD, WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD PROXY FOR THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DUST REGIONS.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE`LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT`S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE`VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE`S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
JACKSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KS/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
621 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 614 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD SE WV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HANDLING THIS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE
IT INVADE GREENBRIER BY 7 PM...AND QUESTION WILL BE IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT PASSES INTO DRIER AIR. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. MADE UPDATED TO THE
FORECAST TO FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 19Z HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
12Z WRF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
PATH NORTH.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL COME TONIGHT AS A REGION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO OUR AREA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB AT
PINPOINTING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM SINCE
YESTERDAY. HAVE GIVEN IT CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR PROJECTING THE
TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SOLUTION HAS AN ARRIVAL TIME IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
00Z/8PM...AND A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA BY 06Z/2AM. THE ARRIVAL IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD BASED UPON
PROJECTED SPEED AND MOTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OH/KY.
ISOLATED REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER MAY DRIFT INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE AS THE PRIMARY WARM
FRONT CONTINUES HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE STEAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL A
SECONDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD. EXPECT A MIX
OF MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES CROSSED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF
REACH COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER ILLINOIS BY MONDAY MORNING AND TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSITIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z
GFS SHOWED STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE A DRY SLOT COMING IN AROUND THE LOW BUT NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS PATH NORTH.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL COME TONIGHT AS A REGION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO OUR AREA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB AT
PINPOINTING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM SINCE
YESTERDAY. HAVE GIVEN IT CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR PROJECTING THE
TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SOLUTION HAS AN ARRIVAL TIME IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
00Z/8PM...AND A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA BY 06Z/2AM. THE ARRIVAL IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD BASED UPON
PROJECTED SPEED AND MOTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OH/KY.
ISOLATED REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER MAY DRIFT INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE AS THE PRIMARY WARM
FRONT CONTINUES HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE STEAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL A
SECONDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD. EXPECT A MIX
OF MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES CROSSED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF
REACH COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER ILLINOIS BY MONDAY MORNING AND TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSITIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z
GFS SHOWED STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE A DRY SLOT COMING IN AROUND THE LOW BUT NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TWO DISSIPATING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE
SECOND WERE STILL ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WILL BE EXITING SOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AN INDICATION
THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS STARTING ITS PROGRESSION BACK THROUGH AND
THEN NORTH OF THE REGION. THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AN STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. NOW THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARDS LESS OR THIN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ANTICIPATE A SURGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLIER
FORECAST HIGHS.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRISTOL VA/TN AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC BY NOON. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRISTOL VA/TN AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC BY NOON. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM