Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/31/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALSO ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...HAS BEEN DEWPOINTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF
UP INTO ARKANSAS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. HRRR...SREF...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TRENDED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR MODELS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 10Z.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO SOUTH ARKANSAS BY 12Z...AND REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 54 71 56 77 / 60 30 20 20
HARRISON AR 41 70 51 75 / 20 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 71 55 76 / 40 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 48 70 52 75 / 40 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 56 70 54 76 / 70 30 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 48 71 54 75 / 40 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 71 50 76 / 20 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 45 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 51 69 54 75 / 60 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 73 50 76 / 20 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 44 69 48 74 / 30 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 49 69 52 74 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...
CITY MARCH 30 MARCH 31
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 97 IN 2004 94 IN 2012
YUMA 99 IN 1934 100 IN 2011
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
440 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...
CITY MARCH 30 MARCH 31
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 97 IN 2004 94 IN 2012
YUMA 99 IN 1934 100 IN 2011
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
141 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST TODAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER STORM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
GRIDS WAS TO REMOVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INDICATED. FOR
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS, BE AWARE THAT IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE
IN DANGER OF BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
MODEL SOUNDINGS BY MONDAY ARE DISPLAYING A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT, SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH NEVADA VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS
WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO DEVELOP WEAK AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 MPH.
A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOLKS WHO HAVE PUT OUT THEIR PATIO FURNITURE FOR THE
NICER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. BRISK NORTH FLOW WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROPPING TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE 60S AND THE SIERRA IN THE 50S.
WEISHAHN
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
STORM TRACK LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, CERTAINLY COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND,
AND INCREASED ODDS OF APRIL SHOWERS.
FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ROLLING THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. WHILE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/COLDER THAN PROGRESSIVE EC, OVERALL ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. IT
WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FRESH
NORTH WIND. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 5000 FT SO WE COULD
SEE SOME OF THOSE SPRING PELLET SHOWERS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS.
CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS OF THE (QUITE SHORT)
TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. GFS/EC
GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
LATE NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE THINGS COULD GET FUN. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
BRINGS A LARGER COLD TROUGH INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO TUESDAY. EVEN SHOWS UP ON THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ANOMALIES AT
500/200MB, WHICH IS A GOOD SIGNAL AT THESE LEAD TIMES. SO THE
OVERALL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW AND A MODEST
PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER CA/NV WOULD SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES OF AN APRIL STORM SUNDAY-TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS,
WHILE SHOWING DIFFERENCES, OVERALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA AND NE CA,
BUT KEEP THEM <30% FOR TIME BEING. WINDS WOULD ALSO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BULK OF
ANY PRECIP IMPACTS WOULD BE NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. CS
&&
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/MON.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOME INSTABILITY NOTED IN GFS/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THAT MAY TRANSLATE TO VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN MINDEN (MEV) AND
MAMMOTH (MMH) LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW
HOWEVER. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL
KICK THE WESTERLY WINDS UP A BIT EACH DAY, WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TURBULENCE, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND CROSS WIND ISSUES SOMETHING TO
WATCH EACH DAY, BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, FOR RNO/CXP/MMH. CS
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...CONVECTION TO THE WEST HAS WEAKENED AS UPPER SHORT WAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. HRRR MODEL
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING OVER MAINLY SE GA LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS THERE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS
DECREASE. LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
07Z PRODUCING TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 13Z. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW BY MORNING AS WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 79 60 80 / 10 30 20 30
SSI 55 72 61 73 / 10 20 20 30
JAX 54 79 61 78 / 0 30 20 30
SGJ 57 75 61 74 / 0 20 10 30
GNV 55 81 60 80 / 0 20 10 40
OCF 56 81 60 81 / 0 20 10 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHULER/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1016 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
FRONT AND APPROACHING LOW CONTINUE TO PRESENT CHALLENGES IN
FORECASTING WIND DIRECTION. WINDS HAVE VEERED SOUTHEAST AND WITH
LOW NOW LOOKING TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO VEER SOUTHWEST BEFORE VEERING WEST THEN SHIFTING NORTH
LATER TONIGHT. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS
OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIKELY
BACKING MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WINDS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT LAKE BREEZE COULD MAKE IT THROUGH ORD/MDW RESULT
IN NE WINDS AROUND 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT WINDS WESTERLY AT
THIS POINT BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE CONSIDER ADDING A LAKE BREEZE
WIND SHIFT TUES.
IZZI
UPDATED 00Z...
WINDS HAVE FLIPPED NORTHEAST THIS EVENING DUE TO DEVELOPING FRONT
WITH SOME ADDED INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KT LIKELY TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AT WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHTER AND VARIABLE. ONCE THE LOW
PASSES OVERNIGHT LOOKS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 10KT
AND AT THIS DISTANCE IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SIDE OF DUE NORTH
THEY WILL START THE DAY ON AT OHARE. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
IS FAIRLY LOW TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
WINDS BACKING TO NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY DROPPING BELOW 10KT A LAKE
BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE MAKES
IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LAKE BREEZE/WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST OUT OF THE TAFS WITH THINKING BEING ABOUT A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF IT MAKING IT THROUGH ORD/MDW LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE STRATUS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HITTING THIS THREAT PRETTY
HARD...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE DRY AND THE PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD SO HAVE KEPT ANY CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
AND WILL JUST MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS TONIGHT.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
TUESDAY
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO LAKE EFFECT CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SHRA/SOME TSRA LIKELY. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
709 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT EARLY TO MID EVENING
* CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE/NORTHEAST WIND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WINDS HAVE FLIPPED NORTHEAST THIS EVENING DUE TO DEVELOPING FRONT
WITH SOME ADDED INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KT LIKELY TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AT WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHTER AND VARIABLE. ONCE THE LOW
PASSES OVERNIGHT LOOKS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 10KT
AND AT THIS DISTANCE IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SIDE OF DUE NORTH
THEY WILL START THE DAY ON AT OHARE. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
IS FAIRLY LOW TUESDAY AS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
WINDS BACKING TO NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY DROPPING BELOW 10KT A LAKE
BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE MAKES
IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LAKE BREEZE/WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST OUT OF THE TAFS WITH THINKING BEING ABOUT A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF IT MAKING IT THROUGH ORD/MDW LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE STRATUS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HITTING THIS THREAT PRETTY
HARD...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE DRY AND THE PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD SO HAVE KEPT ANY CIGS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
AND WILL JUST MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS TONIGHT.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO LAKE EFFECT CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SHRA/SOME TSRA LIKELY. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS
21Z. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS NEAR 40 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
* WINDS TREND MORE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TOWARD 00Z WITH SPEEDS
EASING.
* CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
00Z.
* SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEDGE OF SCATTERING SKIES NOSING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN GUST MAGNITUDE. AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED TO THE WEST
ARE REACHING THEIR EXPECTED GUST POTENTIAL THOUGH WIND SPEEDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE LOWER THERE THAN THEY ARE LOCALLY. THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AS MIXING DEEPENS WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH 40
KT. WIND SPEEDS THEN EASE UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD
00Z. RETAINED TEMPO SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW AS THERE MAY BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FROM 18Z...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE...WHICH IS LEADING TO A LOWERING OF
CIGS TOWARDS 030...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST BEYOND 19Z.
UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO
MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRATO CU MAY FORM. COULD BE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE
DECK SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REALIZE 30-35 KT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. FREQUENCY OF 30+ KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LOW BEFORE
20Z...BUT DECREASING LOWER CLOUD COVER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
DECENT SUNSHINE THEN GUSTS MAY TOP 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. HAVE SPED
UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND BUMPED UP GUSTS A
BIT BEHIND IT. MVFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT MUCH OF WHAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO OPTED TO KEEP SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
EASE UP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS/TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 30 KT GUSTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 KT GUSTS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL PUSH 40 KT. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 21Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS IS LOW THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
259 PM CDT
OBS ARE NOT SUPPORTING STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE SO WILL DROP THE STORM FORCE WARNING WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
GUIDANCE ALSO HOLDS ON TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING SO EXTENDED THE OPEN WATER GALE WARNING INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT NSH GALE WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT/00Z. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN BE NEEDED THROUGH 03Z/10PM CDT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE
UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST AND THE LOWS COLD
FRONT SWINGS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE SCOOTS BY. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BOTH 10-20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SLIDES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW THAT PASSES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7
PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS
21Z. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS NEAR 40 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
* WINDS TREND MORE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TOWARD 00Z WITH SPEEDS
EASING.
* CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
00Z.
* SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEDGE OF SCATTERING SKIES NOSING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN GUST MAGNITUDE. AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED TO THE WEST
ARE REACHING THEIR EXPECTED GUST POTENTIAL THOUGH WIND SPEEDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE LOWER THERE THAN THEY ARE LOCALLY. THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AS MIXING DEEPENS WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH 40
KT. WIND SPEEDS THEN EASE UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD
00Z. RETAINED TEMPO SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW AS THERE MAY BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FROM 18Z...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE...WHICH IS LEADING TO A LOWERING OF
CIGS TOWARDS 030...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST BEYOND 19Z.
UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO
MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRATO CU MAY FORM. COULD BE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE
DECK SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REALIZE 30-35 KT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. FREQUENCY OF 30+ KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LOW BEFORE
20Z...BUT DECREASING LOWER CLOUD COVER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
DECENT SUNSHINE THEN GUSTS MAY TOP 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. HAVE SPED
UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND BUMPED UP GUSTS A
BIT BEHIND IT. MVFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT MUCH OF WHAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO OPTED TO KEEP SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
EASE UP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS/TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 30 KT GUSTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 KT GUSTS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL PUSH 40 KT. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 21Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS IS LOW THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1252 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXITING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC FREQUENCY. THINNING CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT MID AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z WITH SPEEDS EASING.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE...WHICH IS LEADING TO A LOWERING OF
CIGS TOWARDS 030...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST BEYOND 19Z.
UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO
MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRATO CU MAY FORM. COULD BE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE
DECK SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REALIZE 30-35 KT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. FREQUENCY OF 30+ KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LOW BEFORE
20Z...BUT DECREASING LOWER CLOUD COVER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
DECENT SUNSHINE THEN GUSTS MAY TOP 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. HAVE SPED
UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND BUMPED UP GUSTS A
BIT BEHIND IT. MVFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT MUCH OF WHAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO OPTED TO KEEP SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
EASE UP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC 30 KT GUSTS EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 KT GUSTS OCCURRING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* RAIN EXITING TOWARD 1730Z. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE 00 OR 01Z.
* CIGS MAY LOWER TO NEAR 030 THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE CHICAGO/NW IN TERMINALS AND EXITING
THE RFD AREA. UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THE RAINFALL SHOW LOWER GUSTS
BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MIXING RECOVERING.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. CLOUD COVER MAY MAY
ULTIMATELY TEMPER THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
18Z. OBS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
MAY SKIRT RFD INTO MIDDAY BUT WILL KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS FOR NOW. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DRY THE TAFS OUT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT.
MAY ALSO NEED TO SPEED UP THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING BY ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO WITH UPCOMING TAFS.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING. AND THAT MVFR VSBY IN RAIN
WOULD BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 30-35 KT GUSTS AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING PRECIP.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1124 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
652 AM CDT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS IA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
ICING IN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
AREAS WERE MORE VULNERABLE FOR THIS PRECIP TYPE GIVEN IT BEGAN
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NOT TO MODERATE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS NEAR ROCKFORD AND THE I-39
CORRIDOR FROM 9-10 AM...HOWEVER WET BULB COOLING WILL LIKELY
BRING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT ONSET IF THE PRECIP IS
MODERATE ENOUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH ALREADY DID HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WITH SEPARATE
STATEMENT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* RAIN EXITING TOWARD 1730Z. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE 00 OR 01Z.
* CIGS MAY LOWER TO NEAR 030 THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE CHICAGO/NW IN TERMINALS AND EXITING
THE RFD AREA. UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THE RAINFALL SHOW LOWER GUSTS
BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MIXING RECOVERING.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. CLOUD COVER MAY MAY
ULTIMATELY TEMPER THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
18Z. OBS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
MAY SKIRT RFD INTO MIDDAY BUT WILL KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS FOR NOW. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DRY THE TAFS OUT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT.
MAY ALSO NEED TO SPEED UP THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING BY ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO WITH UPCOMING TAFS.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING. AND THAT MVFR VSBY IN RAIN
WOULD BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 30-35 KT GUSTS AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING PRECIP.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
652 AM CDT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS IA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
ICING IN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
AREAS WERE MORE VULNERABLE FOR THIS PRECIP TYPE GIVEN IT BEGAN
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NOT TO MODERATE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS NEAR ROCKFORD AND THE I-39
CORRIDOR FROM 9-10 AM...HOWEVER WET BULB COOLING WILL LIKELY
BRING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT ONSET IF THE PRECIP IS
MODERATE ENOUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH ALREADY DID HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WITH SEPARATE
STATEMENT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
35 KT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
* RAIN ARRIVES 1530-16Z OR SO WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW
POSSIBLE AT ONSET. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS
TOWARD SUNSET.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
BAND OF PRECIP IS NOW APPROACHING RFD AND WILL BE REACHING THE
CHICAGO AREA 1530-16Z OR SO. THE BAND HAS NARROWED QUITE A BIT
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO SO DURATION OF THE MORE SOLID PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE 60-90 MIN...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TRAILING IT. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE TEMPS FZRA WILL
OCCUR FOR A TIME AT RFD ALONG WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET OR
SNOW...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM SO FZRA MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SLEET OR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW AT ONSET.
WIND GUSTS ARE COMING UP SPORADICALLY AND GUSTS MAY BE TEMPERED
DURING PRECIP BUT 30-35 KT GUSTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT GUSTS COULD BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE THIS
AFTERNOON IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR WE MIX A LITTLE
DEEPER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WARMING OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS REACHING 35
KT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN BRIEF SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING OF
PRECIPITATION...WHILE HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN AN
HOUR.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR BEING THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW
THAT IT WILL OCCUR.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7
PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
652 AM CDT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS IA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
ICING IN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
AREAS WERE MORE VULNERABLE FOR THIS PRECIP TYPE GIVEN IT BEGAN
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NOT TO MODERATE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS NEAR ROCKFORD AND THE I-39
CORRIDOR FROM 9-10 AM...HOWEVER WET BULB COOLING WILL LIKELY
BRING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT ONSET IF THE PRECIP IS
MODERATE ENOUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH ALREADY DID HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WITH SEPARATE
STATEMENT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
35 KT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
* ONE HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF SLEET OR SNOW POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF
PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS.
* PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS REACHING 35
KT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN BRIEF SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING OF
PRECIPITATION...WHILE HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN AN
HOUR.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND LOW-MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WETAHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILTY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
* CHANCE OF LLWS PRIOR TO 13Z.
* ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW POSSIBLE AT
ONSET OF PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS.
* PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH AT
LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF MORE BRIEF RAIN
SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS ROBUST PRESSURE
FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL ESCALATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT FAVORED GIVEN STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. THE DIRECTION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS IOWA DURING THE PRE-
SUNRISE HOURS AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 3-4
HOURS IN ANY ONE PLACE AND BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...SO FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND EVEN CIGS ARE LIKELY. AT ONSET...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN WITH ICE
PELLETS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW. THIS COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY
HIGH RATE...ALTHOUGH IS FAVORED TO LAST AS A MIX/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
END...WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS WEST WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN SPEEDS.
* MEDIUM IN SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING OF
PRECIPITATION...WHILE HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN AN
HOUR TO HOUR AND A HALF.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND LOW-MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
* LOW IN TRUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH IN 40-45 KT WINDS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LAKE BREEZE/NE WINDS DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WETAHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILTY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
* CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.
* ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GRAUPEL/SLEET OR SNOW
POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING.
* PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF MORE BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS ROBUST PRESSURE
FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL ESCALATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT FAVORED GIVEN STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. THE DIRECTION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS IOWA DURING THE PRE-
SUNRISE HOURS AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 3-4
HOURS IN ANY ONE PLACE AND BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...SO FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND EVEN CIGS ARE LIKELY. AT ONSET...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN WITH ICE
PELLETS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW. THIS COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY
HIGH RATE...ALTHOUGH IS FAVORED TO LAST AS A MIX/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
END...WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS WEST WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN SPEEDS.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SNOW/SLEET/GRAUPEL POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING WITH
HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN TWO HOURS AT THE MOST.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
* LOW IN TRUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH IN 40-45 KT WINDS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LAKE BREEZE/NE WINDS DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
149 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HELPING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KT STILL EXPECTED.
HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPEARING TO LIKELY APPROACH STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT TRANSITION
THE NORTHERN HALF TO A STORM WARNING BY 14Z AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH 20Z. GALES MAY LINGER A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THIS END
TIME BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
HALF REMAINS THE SOME...BUT WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALES
COULD CONTINUE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THE END TIME TOMORROW
EVENING.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THE
NEARSHORE...PRIMARILY EXTENDING THE GALE WARNING TO 00Z AS WELL.
ALSO...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP PRIOR TO THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE AND SO DID ISSUE AN SCA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILTY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
* CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.
* ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GRAUPEL/SLEET OR SNOW
POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING.
* PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF MORE BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS ROBUST PRESSURE
FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL ESCALATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT FAVORED GIVEN STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. THE DIRECTION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS IOWA DURING THE PRE-
SUNRISE HOURS AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 3-4
HOURS IN ANY ONE PLACE AND BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...SO FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND EVEN CIGS ARE LIKELY. AT ONSET...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN WITH ICE
PELLETS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW. THIS COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY
HIGH RATE...ALTHOUGH IS FAVORED TO LAST AS A MIX/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
END...WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS WEST WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN SPEEDS.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SNOW/SLEET/GRAUPEL POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING WITH
HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN TWO HOURS AT THE MOST.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
* LOW IN TRUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH IN 40-45 KT WINDS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LAKE BREEZE/NE WINDS DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
149 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HELPING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KT STILL EXPECTED.
HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPEARING TO LIKELY APPROACH STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT TRANSITION
THE NORTHERN HALF TO A STORM WARNING BY 14Z AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH 20Z. GALES MAY LINGER A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THIS END
TIME BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
HALF REMAINS THE SOME...BUT WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALES
COULD CONTINUE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THE END TIME TOMORROW
EVENING.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THE
NEARSHORE...PRIMARILY EXTENDING THE GALE WARNING TO 00Z AS WELL.
ALSO...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP PRIOR TO THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE AND SO DID ISSUE AN SCA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. RIGHT AT ONSET OF THE RAIN
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED. ANY THAT DOES
FORM SHOULD MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THIS. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PROG TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN WAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS IOWA. AT 3AM
THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM SPENCER TO HARLAN TO COUNCIL
BLUFFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THREE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT ARE
STRONG WINDS TODAY...THAT ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THE OTHER IS CONDITIONAL VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
PRECIP TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN WHAT IS GOING ON NOW AND
THE THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT TIMING
IS ACCURATE. OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FZRA
BEFORE THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAA AND
WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY DRY OUT THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY
IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS BEING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 11-13C AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST ONE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES DON/T PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS/GEM. THE 29/00Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF FACTORS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE INFLUENCING THE LINGERING CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT PERIOD MAY END UP BEING DRY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BEGIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS...AND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BY 19
OR 20Z/29 AND REMAIN AT 20 TO 30 KTS. MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DBQ WILL RAPIDLY END AS THIS WIND SWITCH/FRONT
APPROACH. WINDS AROUND SUNSET THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND 10 GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS MONDAY
DURING THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES AND
VFR/CLEAR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. ERVIN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GFDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES REACH THE THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO WARRANT
ATTENTION...RAINFALL THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO WET FUELS. IF FUELS
CAN DRY OUT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES
TO BE REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS OTHER THAN HWO AND AFD
SECTION ON FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 20S. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS. SO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN
FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. RIGHT AT ONSET OF THE RAIN
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED. ANY THAT DOES
FORM SHOULD MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THIS. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PROG TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN WAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS IOWA. AT 3AM
THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM SPENCER TO HARLAN TO COUNCIL
BLUFFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THREE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT ARE
STRONG WINDS TODAY...THAT ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THE OTHER IS CONDITIONAL VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
PRECIP TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN WHAT IS GOING ON NOW AND
THE THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT TIMING
IS ACCURATE. OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FZRA
BEFORE THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAA AND
WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY DRY OUT THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY
IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS BEING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 11-13C AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST ONE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES DON/T PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS/GEM. THE 29/00Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF FACTORS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE INFLUENCING THE LINGERING CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT PERIOD MAY END UP BEING DRY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP
OCCURRING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CID AND DBQ COULD SEE
SOME FZRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO RA.
MLI AND BRL WILL SEE RAIN. THEN THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 40MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GO AWAY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BEING THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR AVIATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GFDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES REACH THE THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO WARRANT
ATTENTION...RAINFALL THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO WET FUELS. IF FUELS
CAN DRY OUT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES
TO BE REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS OTHER THAN HWO AND AFD
SECTION ON FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 20S. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS. SO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...GIBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PROG TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN WAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS IOWA. AT 3AM
THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM SPENCER TO HARLAN TO COUNCIL
BLUFFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THREE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT ARE
STRONG WINDS TODAY...THAT ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THE OTHER IS CONDITIONAL VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
PRECIP TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN WHAT IS GOING ON NOW AND
THE THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT TIMING
IS ACCURATE. OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FZRA
BEFORE THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAA AND
WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY DRY OUT THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY
IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS BEING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 11-13C AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST ONE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES DON/T PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS/GEM. THE 29/00Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF FACTORS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE INFLUENCING THE LINGERING CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT PERIOD MAY END UP BEING DRY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHANGEABLE LATE MARCH WEATHER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 24+ KTS OVERNIGHT WITH BKN-OVC MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 7K AGL BY MORNING WITH A FAST MOVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. BETWEEN 29/13Z
AND 29/19Z...TEMPO GROUPING FOR ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH ANY VISIBILITIES IN RAIN STILL AOA 4 SM AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 16 TO 32 KTS AND CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING TO 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GFDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES REACH THE THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO WARRANT
ATTENTION...RAINFALL THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO WET FUELS. IF FUELS
CAN DRY OUT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES
TO BE REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS OTHER THAN HWO AND AFD
SECTION ON FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 20S. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS. SO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 39 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 70 37 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 70 40 76 46 / 0 10 0 10
LBL 71 40 76 47 / 0 10 0 10
HYS 68 37 76 42 / 10 10 0 0
P28 74 40 74 47 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL 3 LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 39 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 71 37 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 40 76 46 / 0 10 0 10
LBL 73 40 76 47 / 0 10 0 10
HYS 69 37 76 42 / 10 10 0 0
P28 74 40 74 47 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 39 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 71 37 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 40 76 46 / 0 10 0 10
LBL 73 40 76 47 / 0 10 0 10
HYS 69 37 76 42 / 10 10 0 0
P28 74 40 74 47 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GONZALES TO HOUMA. SOME
PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND ONE INCH TODAY HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. THE GFS
MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM
OUT OF THE FORECAST CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIRMASS REMAINS AT
THIS TIME.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING NO MENTION OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. FAR REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WEAK
FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE ONE INCH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS...PRIMARILY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
THE AMOUNT OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WHICH PRODUCES POPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO MOSTLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR RETURN. THIS HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS TO KMCB AROUND FL025-030...AND THOSE HAVE NOW LOWERED TO NEAR
FL015.
SINCE 08Z...HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FL030. EXPECT CEILINGS THAT ARE IN PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WILL SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. 35
&&
.MARINE...
NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF. ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 15
KNOTS TODAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 59 80 58 / 0 10 20 10
BTR 79 60 83 61 / 10 10 20 10
ASD 74 58 81 59 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 77 64 81 63 / 10 0 20 10
GPT 71 60 78 60 / 10 10 20 10
PQL 69 57 80 58 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1015 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SEND A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1000 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FINALLY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE
OF STEADIER SNFL EXITING THE FA INTO NB. LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF
SHOWS POTENTIALLY MORE SN SHWRS MSLY FOR THE FAR NW AND N LATE
TNGT AND ERLY TUE MORN AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FA
FROM QB...SO WE KEEP CHC POPS GOING HERE. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS
TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT AND FCST LOWS POSTED AT 7 AM BASED ON
9-10 PM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: A SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST
EARLY TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH AND PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOWER 40S DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE NJ COAST TUE EVE AND WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WED AND
WED NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THU. LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS ONTARIO THU WITH A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THU PM. AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC TUE EVENING
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WED. THERE WILL BE
A SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF APRIL.
HIGHS WED WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS THE ST JOHN
VALLEY TO THE MID 30S DOWN EAST. IT SHOULD BE A M/SUNNY DAY ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND P/SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE A
BIT MORE CLOUDS COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WED NIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY THU WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAINE BY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN DOWN EAST THAT COULD BRIEFLY START AS SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH SNOW TO END
AS SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE DOWN EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TOO. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY FRI-SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRI OR FRI NIGHT...BUT HOW QUICKLY AND WHETHER IT
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION OR PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN
QUESTION. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS AS ANOTHER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS GIVES A GLANCING BLOW WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW DOWNEAST. THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD
WITH A NUMBER OF MEMBERS EVEN TAKING THE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKES THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING AND IS MORE OR LESS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT SAT NIGHT
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
THU AFTERNOON. IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS. IFR AGAIN POSSIBLE SAT IN RAIN AND/OR
SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 10 PM UPDATE...ERN ME BUOY INDICATED WV HTS NEAR 10 FT
AT 8-9PM...SO WE BEEFED UP WV HTS THIS LATE EVE INTO THE OVRNGT BY
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FT FROM THE PREV FCST. AFTWRDS...WE TRENDED
DOWN CLOSER TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE HTS TUE.
ORGNL DISC...WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR WIND WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SCA LEVELS THU AS HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THU NIGHT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF LOW PRES THAT WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NW OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS MARCH IS PROJECTED TO END AS THE 4TH COLDEST ON
RECORD AT BANGOR. FOR THE PERIOD JAN-MAR IT WILL LIKELY END AS
THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
835 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SEND A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
810 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK BANDING HOLDING ON
FOR AN HR OR TWO LONGER EVEN WHAT WAS INDICATED BY HIGH RESOLUTION
SIM RADAR REF MODEL OUTPUT...LIKE THE HRRR MODEL. SO A QUICK
UPDATE TO TM DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIP BY 2 HRS OR SO AND TO BEEF
UP SNFL A LITTLE IN BOTH THE 18-24Z AND 00-06Z TM PDS...RESULTING
IN ARND AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE N AND E PTN OF THE FA...BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISE SOME LCTNS GET UP TO 2 INCHES BEFORE SNFL
WINDS DOWN. WITH ROAD SFCS COOLING DOWN...WE ISSUED AN SPS TO
ALERT DRIVERS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF WET SFCS FROM WHEN SN WAS NOT
STICKING THIS AFTN DUE TO BACKGROUND INSOLATION TO FREEZE UP WITH
LGT ACCUMULATING SNFL THIS EVE...SPCLY ELEVATED SFCS.
ORGNL DISC: A SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST
EARLY TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH AND PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOWER 40S DOWN EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE NJ COAST TUE EVE AND WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WED AND
WED NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THU. LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS ONTARIO THU WITH A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THU PM. AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC TUE EVENING
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WED. THERE WILL BE
A SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF APRIL.
HIGHS WED WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS THE ST JOHN
VALLEY TO THE MID 30S DOWN EAST. IT SHOULD BE A M/SUNNY DAY ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND P/SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE A
BIT MORE CLOUDS COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WED NIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY THU WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAINE BY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN DOWN EAST THAT COULD BRIEFLY START AS SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH SNOW TO END
AS SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE DOWN EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TOO. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY FRI-SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FRI OR FRI NIGHT...BUT HOW QUICKLY AND WHETHER IT
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION OR PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN
QUESTION. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS AS ANOTHER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS GIVES A GLANCING BLOW WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW DOWNEAST. THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD
WITH A NUMBER OF MEMBERS EVEN TAKING THE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKES THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING AND IS MORE OR LESS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT SAT NIGHT
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW
THU AFTERNOON. IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS. IFR AGAIN POSSIBLE SAT IN RAIN AND/OR
SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR WIND WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SCA LEVELS THU AS HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THU NIGHT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF LOW PRES THAT WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NW OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THIS MARCH IS PROJECTED TO END AS THE 4TH COLDEST ON
RECORD AT BANGOR. FOR THE PERIOD JAN-MAR IT WILL LIKELY END AS
THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.
THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.
THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY AS MIXED
PCPN...MAINLY SNOW OVERSPREADS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FO
LOWER IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE AT CMX
AND SAW... WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IWD WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND COMPONENT THAT WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WILL BRING A PORTION OF THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SFC...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO
FOLOW THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG
WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.
THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 30 50 31 / 90 0 50 20
INL 45 28 50 30 / 70 0 50 30
BRD 47 31 59 33 / 80 0 30 10
HYR 46 29 52 30 / 90 0 30 20
ASX 47 31 52 29 / 90 10 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 30 50 31 / 100 10 50 20
INL 45 28 50 30 / 80 10 50 30
BRD 47 31 59 33 / 70 10 30 10
HYR 46 29 52 30 / 90 10 30 20
ASX 47 31 52 29 / 100 10 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.
WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 30 50 31 / 100 10 50 20
INL 45 28 50 30 / 80 10 50 30
BRD 47 31 59 33 / 70 10 30 10
HYR 46 29 52 30 / 90 10 30 20
ASX 47 31 52 29 / 100 10 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED. DWPTS ARE SLOW TO DROP...BUT TIF IS DOWN TO
20F...18 AT VTN AND 19 AT ANW. SO DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER. PKWND WAS 56 MPH AT ORD AT 10 AM.
AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 1017 AM ALONG AND N OF I-80. IT WILL EXPIRE
AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-
019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/. WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING. THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA. SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION. HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR. AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/. WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING. THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA. SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION. HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR. AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POWERFUL COLD WILL SWEEP THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME 32028G40KT THIS
MORNING AND SUBSIDE TO 32018G30KT AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE AREA
MOST IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KLBF
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EASTWARD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AN ISSUE ANY LONGER. WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF
WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT. THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY REQUIRE
THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR SOME SITES.
AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.
WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL APPROACH LLWS.
AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. A WEAK SURGE LINE IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...RECENTLY TAKING WINDS AT WILMINGTON FROM CALM TO AROUND 10
KT. LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS DEPICT THIS FEATURE TRAVERSING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH 2-3 HOURS OF
VERY LIGHT WINDS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CURVE UPWARDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM ON ACCOUNT OF
WIND...BUT TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS WINDS DIE
AWAY. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO SEE A NORTH WIND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WILL THE WINDS AND HOW STRONG WILL THEY
BE OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER WIND WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHICH COULD MEAN A LIGHT FREEZE VERSUS A HARD
FREEZE. ALOFT THE HRRR SHOWS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE COOLING
OVERNIGHT FROM -4.5 TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUMS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...AND A RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE
SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP
TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT
ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-
WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.
N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 20 KT AS A SURGE LINE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS REGION
OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK WHEN WINDS
SHOULD THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS...I HAVE RAISED AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. SEAS
NEARSHORE RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET EXCEPT LOCALLY 1 FOOT NEARSHORE IN
SOUTH AND WEST OF CAPE FEAR. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 1 FOOT INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO WINDS IN VERY SHORT (CHOPPY) PERIODS.
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2
TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE
WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY
RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT
BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL
QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST
OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS
LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM
NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN
NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A
FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
553 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY THE NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE...WITH ANY FRONTAL TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF MLC/FSM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.
TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.
TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 43 72 53 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 75 47 73 54 / 10 10 0 20
MLC 76 49 73 58 / 0 10 0 20
BVO 71 39 72 48 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 67 40 69 50 / 10 0 0 10
BYV 67 41 68 49 / 10 0 0 10
MKO 72 44 72 53 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 66 39 70 49 / 10 0 0 10
F10 73 46 72 55 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 78 55 71 59 / 10 30 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...CORRECTED
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
ELEVATED MARINE LAYER OVERRUNNING A RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LATE
MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME THINNING OF THIS DECK HAD
OCCURRED AT MEM AND JBR. KEPT TIMING OF LATE MORNING AMD WITH
RESPECT TO INCREASE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
TSRA INITIATION STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT...
ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
QUICK POST FRONTAL RETURNS TO VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT TUP.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
558 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR BUT WIND AN ISSUE. HGX VWP AND HRRR SHOWING A JET JUST OFF THE
DECK AT 1200-1400FT AROUND 35-40KTS BUT THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
TOWARD THE UTS/CLL AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS IN ALL
OF THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 14-15Z WHEN DEEPER MIXING OCCURS.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A RAPID MOISTENING AROUND 15-2000FT BUT FOR A
FEW HOURS 12-15Z...WILL CARRY FEW/SCT020 AROUND THIS WINDOW BUT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MIXING INCREASE AND LAYER DRIES
OUT.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT ARE PRO-
CEEDING ALONG OTHERWISE. THIS DECREASE OF SFC WINDS ALONG WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (FROM
HGX VAD - SW @ 30-40KTS) TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG VS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS
THIS COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON MONDAY
BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF CLOSER
TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW VALUES
ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 82 62 79 62 / 0 0 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 82 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 77 66 77 66 / 0 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
506 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest has enjoyed the last day of well above
average temperatures before a vigorous cold front arrives during
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The front will bring gusty
west winds and showers on Tuesday. Wednesday through the weekend
will be seasonably cool and unsettled with a chance for showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: After evaluating the 18z GFS/NAM model runs and the past
3 HRRR runs...a few edits were made to the overnight forecast. A
slight chance of thunderstorms was added from the Blue Mountains
to the Central Panhandle Mountains including the Palouse and
Lewiston area. Previous discussions have mentioned this
possibility but confidence has increased a bit more to mention in
the forecast. A slight chance of rain showers was also expanded
westward a bit to include the western Palouse, and Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area. There is general model agreement that a band of
elevated instability in the 700-500mb layer will develop over
Southeast Washington late this evening before tracking northeast
into the Central Panhandle Mountains overnight. Most unstable CAPE
values increase to 100-300 J/KG with no convective inhibition
above 700mb. This combined with a Theta-e ridge axis over the
area, and increased forcing may trigger a few thunderstorms. The
HRRR shows this activity could develop and track a bit further
west to include the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area.
Although thunder is less likely in these areas with the best mid
level instability south and east of these areas. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front will arrive Tuesday morning. Between 06z-
12z, a narrow corridor of elevated instability over NE Oregon, SE
Wa, then north into the Spokane region, increasing the threat of
scattered high- based showers. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
drop to around 6-9k ft agl. A couple nocturnal lightning strikes
are not out of the question. Expect to see a dramatic increase in
west winds beginning around 15-18z...with gusts as high as 40 mph
possible by late morning. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 55 33 51 31 52 / 20 30 20 40 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 40 54 32 49 29 50 / 20 40 20 40 30 30
Pullman 42 53 34 48 32 49 / 20 30 20 50 30 30
Lewiston 47 57 37 53 34 54 / 20 30 20 30 20 30
Colville 38 58 33 54 30 55 / 10 60 20 40 20 30
Sandpoint 37 52 31 49 28 50 / 20 60 30 40 30 40
Kellogg 39 50 32 44 30 46 / 20 80 30 50 40 60
Moses Lake 43 59 35 57 31 59 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
Wenatchee 45 57 39 56 38 58 / 10 10 10 20 0 10
Omak 40 59 32 57 31 58 / 10 20 10 30 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.
BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.
BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
WINDS ARE EASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT AS
A RESULT. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR WIND
ADVISORY...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS ORIGINALLY ISSUED. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
WINDS ARE STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS IN THE ARLINGTON ZONE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE ARLINGTON ZONE FOR THESE WINDS. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MORE ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING AS AM SEEING WINDS UP BY CASPER IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. IN FACT...JUST GOT A REPORT FROM BORDEAUX OF 58 MPH. WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE WIND TRENDS ARE HERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
BEFORE EXPANDING WARNINGS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VERY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY. THAT IS THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN A
NUTSHELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS
AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IN THE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS. WILL KEEP THAT HIGHLIGHT GOING AS
SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
BOARD AS OF 20Z WITH MANY AREAS CLOSING IN ON RECORDS. KCYS REACHED
73 F A SHORT TIME AGO...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE CURRENT RECORD. THINK
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS WE ARE AT PEAK MIXING. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH RECENTLY.
A FEW CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHWEST WY LATE THIS AFTN WITH
EXCELLENT PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS POST-FROPA
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
BETWEEN H8-H7 AFTER 00Z OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. WHILE THIS
WILL GO BEYOND PEAK MIXING...WE DO EXPECT A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND WEAK PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO POP UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS BENEATH SHOWERS...SO A STRAY 50 KT GUST IS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN VERY MEAGER MOISTURE ALOFT. LLVL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES STEEP OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM CONFIDENT
IN A FEW 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN
MT. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +7 DEG C
THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 DEG C BY NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...BUT STILL A PLEASANT AFTN
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LESS WIND TOO WITH THE H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT LESS THAN 10 METERS. TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO WARMTH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES ON TUES AND WED. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD ON TUES WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 5C. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE MIN RH VALUES TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...HOWEVER THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HIGHER WINDSPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS ON TUES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA ON WED...AND THIS WILL RESULT SOME COOLING BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...AND WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
STRONGER (GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS). THUS...WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
ATTENTION ON THURS AND FRI THEN SHIFTS TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE CWA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO
NEVADA/UTAH ON THURS THEN MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON FRI. THERE IS
SOME PRETTY GOOD DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION FROM THURS AFTN INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES OFF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. OF COURSE THERE ARE LOCATION DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF
TARGETING AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID INCREASE POPS
INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WOULD BE IN STORE
FOR FRI. APRIL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START OUT WET AFTER A VERY
DRY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITH
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDER THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW HUMIDITIES LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
104 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WIND DIRECTIONS TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NORTH-NORTHEAST
(350-020 DEG) WINDS EARLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT MDW.
* POTENTIAL FOR LOWER MVFR/HIGHER END IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF IT RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO EVEN
30 KT OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND LAKE INFLUENCE COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO ORD/MDW BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND
14Z. LOW CIGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY ALSO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD...AIDED BY THE LAKE INFLUENCE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO HAVE ADDED SCT010 IN ORD/MDW/GYY TAFS FROM 13Z TO 15Z.
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT GYY...WHICH WILL HOLD ONTO NORTHERLY WINDS GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY
INLAND...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR. HAVE INDICATED A WIND
SHIFT IN THE MDW TAF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT BROUGHT THE
SHIFT TO ORD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS COULD THEN REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 9Z-10Z TODAY...LOW
THEREAFTER.
* LOW IN LOW CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SHRA/SOME TSRA LIKELY. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 53 85 47 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 81 50 87 45 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 82 50 85 45 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 82 52 87 46 / 10 10 20 20
HYS 79 53 84 45 / 0 10 30 30
P28 84 55 84 53 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
525 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.
AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.
MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.
FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.
FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.
8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.
06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.
06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.
THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1046 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER
THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY WERE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS OF
1040AM THE TEMPERATURE AT EISENHOWER AIRPORT WAS ALREADY 70
DEGREES WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER FORECAST WHICH WAS ONE OF
MANY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND USED THAT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. INCREASED
HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TODAY & TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID & UPPER 50S ARE
MIGRATING TOWARD THIS AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE & WOULD
ALSO INDUCE WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS
KS.
WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN UPPER
DECK WAVE THAT`LL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WED. THIS CHARACTER
WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE INTO KS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY WITH THE MCS SURGING EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KS &
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE-
TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS IT WILL DECELERATE AS IT VENTURES INTO SE KS & OK. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS AS BROAD RIDGE
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RICH MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR FOG OVER SE KS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS MOISTURE RICH AIR
MOVES BACK NORTH...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE INITIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES AFTER 09Z/WED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR SOME MVFR FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS JUST
YET...AS WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GREATEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WILL POSE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 57 85 55 / 0 10 10 40
HUTCHINSON 84 55 86 51 / 0 10 10 50
NEWTON 83 56 84 52 / 0 10 10 50
ELDORADO 82 56 83 55 / 0 10 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 57 83 57 / 0 10 10 30
RUSSELL 84 55 88 46 / 0 0 20 50
GREAT BEND 83 55 87 47 / 0 10 20 50
SALINA 83 55 87 49 / 0 0 10 70
MCPHERSON 83 55 85 50 / 0 10 10 60
COFFEYVILLE 84 56 80 61 / 0 10 20 30
CHANUTE 81 56 79 58 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 80 55 80 57 / 0 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 83 56 80 60 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TIMEFRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES, HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DDC AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADS
NORTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 52 86 46 / 10 10 30 20
GCK 81 49 87 42 / 10 10 30 20
EHA 82 49 86 43 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 82 49 88 45 / 10 10 20 20
HYS 79 51 85 44 / 0 10 30 30
P28 84 55 86 52 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF MOVING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH GIVEN RAP/HRRR RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS. RAIN/SNOW LINE
IS HOLDING NORTH AS EXPECTED. DID NOT SIGNFICANTLY ALTER SNOW
EXPECTATIONS. TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.
WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.
AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.
MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY. THIS FOG HAS CREPT INTO KLSE AND WAS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY ALSO GET INTO KRST FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 31.09Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THIS FOG TO LIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DECENT LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN THE MIXED LAYER. THE
31.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20
KNOTS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM...ECHOES ON AREA RADARS SHOWING LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAN SURFACE SENSORS. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER AND
EAST TO ABOUT THE PA/NJ BORDER. NEAREST REPORT OF SNOW AT
MONTICELLO NY IN SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD JUST BE STARTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS A FIRST GUESS FOR ALL MODEL FIELDS OUT TO
12Z FRIDAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OOZ...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN OOZ AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.
CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.
9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.
8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.
06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
31/21Z RADAR AND SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A PLETHORA OF
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES POSITIONED ACROSS GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE
REMNANTS OF A WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE I-16/I-75 INTERCHANGE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN TSTM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA INTERACTS WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW MUCH
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. THE H3R DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED BOW
ECHO/QLCS FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY MID-EVENING
WHILE THE LATEST RAP IS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-16 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...
ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REORIENT THE
POP SCHEME THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO TAKE SHORT TERM TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED...ROUGHLY FROM
METTER-HINESVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED THE
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST GA ZONES
BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND ONLY WEAK LATE-DAY COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THUS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN SOUTHEAST GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING
STRATOCUMULUS LATE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA. MEANWHILE ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING/
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS EAST OF I-95...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 31/00 UTC GUIDANCE TIMING DIFFERENCES
PERSIST...RANGING FROM A FAST OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO A SOMEWHAT SLOWER OPERATIONAL EURO WHICH DEPICTS THE
FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NEEDED
WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. WATCHING UPSTREAM TSTM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN FOR
KSAV 02-06Z. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ACTIVITY THAT HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF TSRA JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.
WIND SHIFT WILL A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KCHS ROUGHLY
14Z...BUT WASHOUT BEFORE REACHING KSAV AND GETTING ENTANGLED WITH
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD AFFECT
EITHER TERMINAL LATE THURSDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
ENHANCED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AS THE FROPA OCCURS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF CRITERIA. HAVE MAINTAINED A CAP OF 15 KT WINDS IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 20 KT WINDS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE OUT OF THE NE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BUT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST BOTH
DAYS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
MEANWHILE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG BEGINNING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
509 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...31/21Z RADAR AND SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A
PLETHORA OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES POSITIONED ACROSS GEORGIA...
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF A WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-16/I-75 INTERCHANGE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN TSTM COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA INTERACTS
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
EXACTLY HOW MUCH UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. THE H3R DEPICTS
AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/QLCS FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BY MID-EVENING WHILE THE LATEST RAP IS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE.
EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED...
ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REORIENT THE
POP SCHEME THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO TAKE SHORT TERM TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED...ROUGHLY FROM
METTER-HINESVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED THE
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST GA ZONES
BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND ONLY WEAK LATE-DAY COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THUS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN SOUTHEAST GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING
STRATOCUMULUS LATE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA. MEANWHILE ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING/
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS EAST OF I-95...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 31/00 UTC GUIDANCE TIMING DIFFERENCES
PERSIST...RANGING FROM A FAST OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO A SOMEWHAT SLOWER OPERATIONAL EURO WHICH DEPICTS THE
FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NEEDED
WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THE
SAV TERMINAL COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS...PEAKING
AROUND 20 KTS FROM 19-23Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD AFFECT
EITHER TERMINAL LATE THURSDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
ENHANCED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AS THE FROPA OCCURS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF CRITERIA. HAVE MAINTAINED A CAP OF 15 KT WINDS IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 20 KT WINDS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE OUT OF THE NE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BUT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST BOTH
DAYS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
MEANWHILE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG BEGINNING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER
THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY WERE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS OF
1040AM THE TEMPERATURE AT EISENHOWER AIRPORT WAS ALREADY 70
DEGREES WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER FORECAST WHICH WAS ONE OF
MANY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND USED THAT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. INCREASED
HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TODAY & TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID & UPPER 50S ARE
MIGRATING TOWARD THIS AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE & WOULD
ALSO INDUCE WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS
KS.
WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN UPPER
DECK WAVE THAT`LL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WED. THIS CHARACTER
WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE INTO KS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY WITH THE MCS SURGING EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KS &
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE-
TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS IT WILL DECELERATE AS IT VENTURES INTO SE KS & OK. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS AS BROAD RIDGE
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LOW STRATUS THAT IS
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO RETURN WITH
IT AND FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEPT AND ADDED
LOW STRATUS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. DID ADJUST TIMING
SLIGHTLY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW STRATUS
BUILDS IN. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THEY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING WHICH WILL HELP TO ERODETHE
LOW STRATUS AND IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GREATEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WILL POSE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 57 85 55 / 0 10 10 40
HUTCHINSON 84 55 86 51 / 0 10 10 50
NEWTON 83 56 84 52 / 0 10 10 50
ELDORADO 83 56 83 55 / 0 10 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 57 83 57 / 0 10 10 30
RUSSELL 85 55 88 46 / 0 0 20 50
GREAT BEND 84 55 87 47 / 0 10 20 50
SALINA 84 55 87 49 / 0 10 10 70
MCPHERSON 84 55 85 50 / 0 10 10 60
COFFEYVILLE 84 56 80 61 / 0 10 20 30
CHANUTE 81 56 79 58 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 80 55 80 57 / 0 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 83 56 80 60 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 54 89 46 / 0 10 40 50
GCK 82 51 89 42 / 0 0 40 40
EHA 80 51 86 43 / 0 0 20 10
LBL 82 52 89 45 / 10 0 30 10
HYS 83 53 86 44 / 0 0 40 50
P28 83 55 87 52 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
522 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.
FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
241 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
AREAS OF FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUD HAVE KEPT OUR TEMPS AND MIXED
WINDS A BIT IN CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS OF 2 PM
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MTN WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD HINDER OUR
PREFRONTAL TSTM POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD WORDING
INTO THE EVENING AS THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN HINTING AT. LOOKING
WEST...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE EAST OF MISSOULA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 1MB/HR NOTED FROM SALMON TO BUTTE AND
HELENA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. TIMING DEPICTED BY
MODELS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH PRESSURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTION. H3 JET IS PARALLEL
TO FRONT IN CENTRAL MT WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...AND IN FACT PRESSURE RISES ARE ALL THE WAY BACK IN
OREGON NOW...SO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.
EXPECT A FRONT TO LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 02Z...BILLINGS 04Z AND
MILES CITY/SHERIDAN 06Z. W-NW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
AND FOLLOW THIS FROPA. COULD SEE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
SECONDARY PV MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
WILL SEE A LITTLE SNOWFALL AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -12C BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. LIVINGSTON MAY ALSO WET BULB DOWN TO A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH. WE WILL BE
VERY WELL-MIXED ON WEDNESDAY AND PER VERY DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT
SFC DEWPTS TO REALLY CRASH...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FROM BILLINGS
WEST...RESULTING IN TEENS FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DESPITE THE MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RHS WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UNSTABLE NW FLOW ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. SFC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ACTUALLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN OUR EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT LIFTED INDICES
NEAR ZERO EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MTNS
WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO WEAKLY COLD ADVECT AS THE FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS MANY AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER E MT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THAT
AREA ON FRI. FRI WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S UNDER A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SAT ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. MODEL COMPROMISE GAVE HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SW FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SAT THROUGH SUN.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS AGREED ON AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAD DRY-SLOTTING PUSHING UP INTO
THE AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE IN WY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE DRY
SLOT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE POPS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HAD HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MON AND TUE. TUE LOOKS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MON DUE TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KLVM AROUND 02Z...KBIL
AROUND 04Z...KMLS AROUND 06Z AND KSHR AROUND 05Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT.
WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE NW ON WED.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
KLVM...AND OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/056 033/049 031/056 033/059 034/056 035/055 033/056
31/N 13/W 31/B 01/B 22/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 035/050 027/047 025/053 031/054 028/052 030/050 028/052
54/W 24/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 040/058 030/050 028/058 030/062 033/059 034/058 031/059
31/N 12/W 21/B 01/B 21/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 041/058 031/049 028/055 030/060 032/058 033/055 031/055
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
4BQ 041/057 031/048 025/054 028/061 031/058 032/057 031/057
21/N 02/W 11/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
BHK 039/056 029/045 024/052 026/058 028/054 028/049 028/050
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
SHR 037/054 028/047 025/052 026/059 029/057 032/055 030/055
22/W 13/W 21/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
AREAS OF FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUD HAVE KEPT OUR TEMPS AND MIXED
WINDS A BIT IN CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS OF 2 PM
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MTN WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD HINDER OUR
PREFRONTAL TSTM POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD WORDING
INTO THE EVENING AS THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN HINTING AT. LOOKING
WEST...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE EAST OF MISSOULA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 1MB/HR NOTED FROM SALMON TO BUTTE AND
HELENA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. TIMING DEPICTED BY
MODELS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH PRESSURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTION. H3 JET IS PARALLEL
TO FRONT IN CENTRAL MT WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...AND IN FACT PRESSURE RISES ARE ALL THE WAY BACK IN
OREGON NOW...SO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.
EXPECT A FRONT TO LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 02Z...BILLINGS 04Z AND
MILES CITY/SHERIDAN 06Z. W-NW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
AND FOLLOW THIS FROPA. COULD SEE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
SECONDARY PV MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
WILL SEE A LITTLE SNOWFALL AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -12C BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. LIVINGSTON MAY ALSO WET BULB DOWN TO A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH. WE WILL BE
VERY WELL-MIXED ON WEDNESDAY AND PER VERY DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT
SFC DEWPTS TO REALLY CRASH...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FROM BILLINGS
WEST...RESULTING IN TEENS FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DESPITE THE MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RHS WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UNSTABLE NW FLOW ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. SFC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ACTUALLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN OUR EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT LIFTED INDICES
NEAR ZERO EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MTNS
WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO WEAKLY COLD ADVECT AS THE FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS MANY AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER E MT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THAT
AREA ON FRI. FRI WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S UNDER A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SAT ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. MODEL COMPROMISE GAVE HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SW FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SAT THROUGH SUN.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS AGREED ON AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAD DRY-SLOTTING PUSHING UP INTO
THE AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE IN WY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE DRY
SLOT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE POPS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HAD HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MON AND TUE. TUE LOOKS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MON DUE TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KLVM AROUND 02Z...KBIL
AROUND 04Z...KMLS AROUND 06Z AND KSHR AROUND 05Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT.
WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE NW ON WED.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
KLVM...AND OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/055 033/049 031/056 033/059 034/056 035/055 033/056
31/N 13/W 31/B 01/B 22/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 035/050 027/047 025/053 031/054 028/052 030/050 028/052
54/W 24/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 040/058 030/050 028/058 030/062 033/059 034/058 031/059
31/N 12/W 21/B 01/B 21/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 041/058 031/049 028/055 030/060 032/058 033/055 031/055
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
4BQ 041/057 031/048 025/054 028/061 031/058 032/057 031/057
21/N 02/W 11/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
BHK 039/056 029/045 024/052 026/058 028/054 028/049 028/050
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
SHR 037/053 028/047 025/052 026/059 029/057 032/055 030/055
22/W 13/W 21/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS