Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/29/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER VERY COOL OR DOWNRIGHT COLD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TOWARDS LATE
EVENING. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 4500 FEET OR HIGHER...MAINLY IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE NIGHTS WILL BE VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS AND
DESERT AREAS. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A STRONG VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN
TROUGH AND SWOOPING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACCORDING TO
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. ALSO...ON VISIBLE SATELLITE A CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT WHICH IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THESE
FEATURES ARE CONTINUING...MAINLY OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY...ALTHOUGH
A POP-UP STATIONARY HEAVY SHOWER IN SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY PRODUCED
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AND 0.38 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MOST OF THE SHOWERS TODAY HAS BEEN MAINLY ON
THE ORDER OF 0.03-0.10 INCHES WITH LOCAL 0.20-0.30 INCH AMOUNTS
UNDER THE HEAVIER CELLS. TAKING A LOOK AT WEB-CAMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AT AROUND 4500-5000
FEET. AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...LATEST
HRRR NOW SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
CONTINUING...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT
4500-5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DROP TO 4000-4500 FEET
THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAINLY
ABOVE 4500 FOOT ELEVATION. CONSIDERING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND OVER AND WEST OF THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ABOUT 0.05-0.20
INCHES...WITH A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE OVER AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL BE 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW KICKING IN TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING DRYING AND VERY GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH DAY-
TIME HIGHS REACHING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
FOR MANY INLAND VALLEY DUE TO THE LINGERING COLD AIR MASS...DRIER
AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FREEZE WARNING GOES INTO
EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE HIGH DESERTS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN INLAND
EMPIRE...WITH A FREEZE WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INLAND EMPIRE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION
MARK AS TO IF TEMPERATURES WOULD GET LOW ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE...BUT
LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING...AND MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS REACHING THE 29-32 DEGREE RANGE.
MEANWHILE...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY THAT THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS WILL REACH BELOW FREEZING
FOR LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH FREEZE CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED DRYING...SO THE FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE COLDER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS MAY ALSO GET COLD ENOUGH...IN THE 33
TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...FOR FROST CONDITIONS...SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SIMILARLY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH WHERE FROST
AND FREEZE WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN.
IN THE EXTENDED...ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RETURN
THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SPITS OUT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS
BEEN ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
272100Z...COAST/VALLEYS/MTNS...SCT/BKN CLOUDS...WITH BASES 4500 TO
6000 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 9000 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SKC-SCT...WITH GREATEST
CLOUD COVERAGE NEAR THE MTNS. -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ABOVE 4000
FT MSL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS INTERSECTING TERRAIN WILL
REDUCE SFC VIS TO LESS THAN 1 SM AT TIMES TODAY.
DESERTS...FEW-BKN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SAT MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
100 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-
THE INLAND EMPIRE.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COACHELLA
VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...
...COLD BUT LESS SNOW TOMORROW...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING VERY WELL TODAY IN CAPTURING BL PROCESSES
AND THE CLOUD/PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW
COLD AIR AND SERLY FLOW ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY HAS LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH TODAY...ALBEIT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE REST OF
THE PLAINS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE. MEANWHILE...THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY HAS SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...DESPITE DEEP SATURATED
LAYERS PROGGED BY THE MODELS. SO...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A BIT
PROBLEMATIC AND PERSISTENCE WILL RULE FOR NOW.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW AZ/SW UT EJECTS TO THE NE INTO WY BY SAT
AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THIS
EVENING...SO BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE FROM
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. MOST ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...UNDER AN INCH. THE SAN JUANS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT SNOW SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
ANOTHER AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMS IS THE ARKANSAS
RIVER CANYON ALONG WITH FREMONT COUNTY....THE NRN SANGRES...AND THE
WET MTN VALLEY. HIGH RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR ARE SHOWING THE BEST
EVENING POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN WHERE EXACTLY
THE HIGHEST ACCUMS WILL BE...OR WHETHER THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPS AT ALL...SO WILL KEEP HEADLINE-FREE FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...SUSPECT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH
SAT MORNING SO HAVE CUT BACK QPF ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADDED SOME
AREAS OF PC FZDZ OVER THE ERN PLAINS INTO SAT MORNING...AS MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT FZDZ IN THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE COLD...WITH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO HIT 30 DEGREES.
WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE THE MID ELEVATION AREAS CLOSE TO THE WETS AND
SRN SANGRES...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR IS. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD ALSO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP VERY LOW POPS IN FOR THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SE CO...WHILE THE NAM IS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR NW THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...BUT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DO NOT LOOK VERY HIGH...AND THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME CLEARING BY SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE EXTREME SWRN
CORNER OF WY. FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT DO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN
PLAINS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS.
ON SUN THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE LOW...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO WRN CO...ENHANCING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE CONTDVD AND
MAYBE INTO THE TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES PEAK AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS THERE WL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME PATCHY FZDZ STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NEAR THE KS BORDER. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
SUN EVENING THE UPR TROF AND DISTURBANCE MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...LIKELY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE EASTERN MTNS
AND PLAINS. AT THIS TIME ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WITH THE PCPN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER ENDING THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST THAN THE
GFS.
ON MON THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN HALF OF
NE...LEAVING W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS. MSTR IN THE NW FLOW WL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON MON. HIGHS ON MON MAY GET
INTO THE LOWER 40S OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS...BUT THE REST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
TUE THROUGH FRI DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE
EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRI BEING IN THE 50S OVR THE SERN PLAINS
AND IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 06-
08Z TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NRN CO. MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIP. SOME
FG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KALS...BUT
WILL KEEP KALS VFR FOR NOW. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING LOW
CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AT KPUB AND ESPECIALLY
KCOS...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED SERLY SFC WINDS...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY THAT KCOS ESPECIALLY COULD REMAIN MVFR TO
IFR WITH LOW CIGS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1026 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
...PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT...
...MORE LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY...
BUSY DAY OF WX FOR THIS HOLIDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS HAVE FINALLY
CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW...EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHICH COULD HOLD ON TO SOME FZRA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGHLIGHT IN GENERAL HAVE SO FAR WORKED OUT PRETTY WELL. MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
FROM NOW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE
HI RES WRF...HRRR...AND 18Z NAM...ALL SHOW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVING FROM SW TO NE DURING THIS TIME.
THE QPF FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE IT IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY
AT THIS POINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP...IF
THEY DEVELOP AS PROGGED. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCAL SPOT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT IF ONE OF THESE
BANDS IS PERSISTENT OVER THE SAME AREA. THE HRRR HAS THE SNOW
BULLSEYE OVER THE SRN SANGRES AND SPANISH PEAKS...WHILE THE NAM SETS
UP THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NRN SANGRES AND FREMONT COUNTY.
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL CONSENSUS...APPEARS THE BEST BET
FOR SEEING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND
SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...AS THESE MESOSCALE BANDS TRANSLATE IN FROM THE
SW. HAVE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE
HEAVIEST BAND. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE BANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE ONGOING FORECAST OF 2-4 INCHES FOR THE
PLAINS AND 4-8 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS ON TRACK.
FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHSN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER
WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SW...AND THIS WILL
BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT...MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SOME OF
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVG AS H7 TEMPS OF MINUS 15 OR LOWER CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD DOWN THE SRN FRONT RANGE. GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEMS A TAD TOO
COLD...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM WHICH STILL BRINGS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE A VERY
RAW DAY ACROSS THE CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
FRI NIGHT THE UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC OVR THE ERN
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL. AN UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING
AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPR LOW INTO WRN CO...SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE SNOW CHANCES ACRS THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MTNS...AND COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL OVR THE NRN SANGRES AND
PIKES PEAK AREA.
ON SAT...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR
LOW...AND BY AFTERNOON THE UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN PCPN CHANCES...WITH
GENERALLY JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT CHANCES IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACRS THE ERN
SAN JUAN MTNS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS WL
STILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20 TO LOWER
30S...MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER NR THE MTNS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH MOSTLY 30S IN
THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
SAT NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SWRN WY. THIS WL BRING ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE THRU WRN CO AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
THEN EXPECTED COME AROUND THE UPR LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ONCE
AGAIN ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS...AND THEN OVR ERN AREAS
SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPR LOW CENTER THEN MOVING INTO
EXTREME NERN CO BY MIDDAY MON...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD STILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE UPR LOW IS
THE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO IA BY TUE MORNING...LEAVING
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH TEMPS BY WED SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE. THU IT LOOKS LIKE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
KALS...COLD AIR SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEY INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
VALLEY BY 27/0800 UTC. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
KCOS...LOW CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
MIDDAY TOMORROW. COULD SEE AN ENHANCED AREA OF STEADIER SNOW AFTER
DURING THE 11 -15 UTC TIME FRAME. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
KPUB...HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD LET UP AND SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS
TRANSISTIONING INTO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MVFR
BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ076-077-
081>086-088-089-093>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE CROSSED
ALL OF NJ EXCEPT CAPE MAY AND THEN EXTENDS WWD ACROSS CNTRL DE AND
THE MD EASTER SHORE. A BAND OF SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN EXTENDS ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN DELMARVA WWD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. THE RAP AND HRRR ARE STILL INDICATING A MORE
SOLID AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
GENLY S OF PHL...BUT THE TIMING NOW SEEMS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE STEADY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AS WELL AS
THE DELMARVA. THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
LIGHT, WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THIS AREA, IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
FREE THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THERE SHOULD BE RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP EVERYONE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN DELMARVA WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
AREA. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MONDAY IN DELMARVA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH LEADS TO A
OVERRUNNING REGIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS OF MID EVENING THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED ALONG THE LOWER DELAWARE
VALLEY TERMINALS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE
CIGS AT RDG/ABE HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL PROBABLY STAY THAT
WAY OVERNIGHT. MIV/ACY CIGS ARE STILL VFR BUT THEY WILL LIKELY
DROP TO MVFR ALSO BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM PHL
SOUTHWARD...AND MAY HELP MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSING BELOW...
MVFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABE/RDG/TTN HAVE LOWERED SO FAR. THESE LOWERING
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES
BY THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED THIS FOR
ACY/MIV WHO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL. THE LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND BEGIN TO LIFT AND
POTENTIALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH.
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE AT BOTH ACY AND MIV.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AS BUOY 44091 REMAINS BOUNCING AROUND 5 FEET. BUOY 44009 AND
44065 ARE BELOW 5 FEET, SO IT WON`T BE LONG BEFORE 44091 FALLS
BELOW AS WELL. SO WE`LL KEEP THE ENDING TIME OF 6 PM FOR NOW. ONCE
THE SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FEET, THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS MAY AGAIN APPROACH OR REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
FOR SEAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LEAD TO WESTERLY WINDS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE WINDS
MEETING THE SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
The cold front draped across the eastern half of the country has
almost made it all the way through ILXs area this afternoon, and is
currently in the vicinity of I-70. Plenty of precipitation in the
region moving up from the SW. Precip is expected to continue,
particularly in the south and east through the overnight. The big
issues are the northern extent of the measurable precip, and the
timing of the cold air moving in behind it. HRRR and NAM both
trying to pull the precip further south after 06z, which should
remove the threat for FZRA later tonight. The forward progression
of the cooler air is also working against the rainfall as it is much
drier than the airmass over Central Illinois. The dry air is slowly
eroding the llvl RH and some of the weaker echos in the NW are only
seeing low clouds, and not reporting precip. Even in the NW where
the rain chances may recede after midnight, the low clouds and
potential for a misty night remain.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Our area should be in between shortwaves on Saturday with a definite
trend south with the axis of heavier QPF from previous forecasts.
With our area in between shortwave trofs on Saturday, it appears the
better chances for rain will be across southeast Illinois, closer to
the frontal boundary and any associated weak surface wave that will
track northeast along it. Forecast soundings not very supporting of
any precip further north during the day so we will see a gradual
shift south with the higher POPs as the boundary gets a nudge to the
south by afternoon. Forecast soundings showing some drier air (900-
800 mb)advecting south into the region during the day as well but
expect quite a bit of cloudiness to hang around during the day with
the lingering POPs mainly across the southern third of the forecast
area by afternoon.
Low POPs will remain Saturday night into Sunday with the GFS showing
a weak lead shortwave coming out of the large upper low over the
southwest U.S. Sunday afternoon and evening with the main push from
the low to our southwest not getting into central Illinois until
Monday. That is when we will see likely POPs return across the
entire area with forecast soundings continuing to support rain
during the day, and then as we see cold advection settle in around
the backside of the upper low Monday night, we will see a mix or
changeover to light snow before the main forcing/lift ejects off to
the northeast on Tuesday. The main 500 mb trof axis will not shift
off to our east until Wednesday, so we will continue with at
least some low chance POPs Tuesday and Tuesday night associated
with the cold pool aloft. Finally, by Wednesday, the system should
be far enough to our northeast to have a dry forecast for the
entire area along with seasonably cool temperatures.
As the large upper low continues to drift away from the Midwest late
Wednesday into the end of the work week, upper level heights will
start to increase across the region, with more of a semi-zonal flow
pattern depicted on medium range models. This should result in a
rather quiet weather scene over the region with near normal
temperatures and little if any rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
Aviation forecast is dismal at best. Low cigs and bad visibility
is the rule, not the exception through the pd. PIA may lose the
majority of the precip, but still expecting MVFR cigs through the
overnight and mist. Rain, drizzle, low clouds with the front
stalling in the Ohio River Valley. Scattered nature of the heavier
showers putting some variability in the conditions, but
predominantly IFR, with some LIFR through the overnight. Northerly
winds will continue throughout, pretty brisk 10-15kts, some gusts
to 20.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10
DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST
NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN
THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING
POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND
NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH
A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE
WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST
SHOULD STAY DRY.
ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER
RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR
LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD
WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IFR CEILINGS BECOME MORE PREVALENT AT THE KIND
TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE MAINLY VFR TO
MVFR BUT CEILINGS ALREADY INTO KLAF AND JUST UPSTREAM OF KHUF ARE
IFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE IN THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT AS PESSIMISTIC BUT ALSO ARE NOT CAPTURING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OF THE SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT WILL KEEP IT
FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS HANGING AROUND THE ENTIRE
TIME. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SOUTH OF IT...BUT ALL SITES BUT KLAF COULD SEE
THEM BACKING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CHILLY...WET AND RAW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN MORE RAIN AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SEEN A 7 TO 10
DEGREE DROP WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM JUST
NORTH OF KMIE W/SW THROUGH CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY. TEMPS WERE IN
THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
THE RAIN AND TEMPERATURE SHIFT ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE NEAR
TERM AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS THE INDY METRO OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY EVEN
FURTHER OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
STRETCHES OUT. WHILE THE JET WEAKENS...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE REGION REMAINING NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER JET OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THIS
POINTS TO CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
RATES SETTING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. 100 POPS REMAINS VALID FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO A RAW AND CHILLY N/NE FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPS...TOOK CURRENT OBS AND UTILIZED THE 18Z RAP AS A STARTING
POINT FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS WITH THE
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT LIES AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COOL FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
GET. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES FROM BEDFORD THROUGH SEYMOUR AND
NORTH VERNON HANG UP CLOSER TO 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH
A PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH A BRIEF BREAK WEDGED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED HERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAWING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL AND EVEN BRIEFLY RIDGE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SERVE TO SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GIVE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA A RESPITE FROM THE
WET PATTERN. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT MOST
SHOULD STAY DRY.
ELONGATED AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO A RESUMPTION OF THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW...DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PLAY AT THIS POINT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OP GFS FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER ALL
BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER POPS MONDAY AS STEADIER
RAINS ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
TEMPS...A MOS BLEND OVERALL WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR
LOWS AS MAV AND MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FAR TOO COLD
WITH LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE MAINLY VFR TO
MVFR BUT CEILINGS ALREADY INTO KLAF AND JUST UPSTREAM OF KHUF ARE
IFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE IN THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT AS PESSIMISTIC BUT ALSO ARE NOT CAPTURING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OF THE SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT WILL KEEP IT
FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS HANGING AROUND THE ENTIRE
TIME. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SOUTH OF IT...BUT ALL SITES BUT KLAF COULD SEE
THEM BACKING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...THEN
STALL A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR STATE. FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE HOOSIER STATE WILL STAY WEDGED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
PREDICTED TO SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM THE WEST. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID
MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING RAIN
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS OF 15Z.
RAIN...RAIN AND MORE RAIN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO OFFER
BIT MORE DETAIL TO RAINFALL ONSET OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA AND MAYBE MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE TEMPERATURE FALLS LATER
TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
HAVE 100 POPS GOING WHERE IT IS RAINING NOW...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK
POPS QUITE A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT LEAST INITIALLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS. HRRR/WRF ANALYSIS SHOWING A STEADY
EXPANSION TO THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IMPACTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE 100 POPS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE
DAY.
OTHER ISSUE FOCUSES ON TEMPS. HAVE SEEN A QUICK 8-10 DEGREE DROP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SITES OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR IMPACT AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES LATER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT THEIR HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WITH JUST SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO SEE A FEW DEGREE
CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE RAIN SETTLES IN. UTILIZED
THE RAP HOURLY GUIDANCE AS A BASE FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. COULD EASILY SEE
A 15 TO 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDOWN
WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ALONG WITH A RAW
NORTHERLY WIND. COLDER AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
BUNDLE UP AND BE PREPARED FOR COLDER TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE MAIN PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES AS A FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA.
GIVEN WHERE IT HAS THE LOW...THE NAM QPF FIELDS LOOKS STRANGELY DRY
AT 12Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS
ARE PROBABLY BEST.
THE REAL UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED
A LOT WITH EVERY RUN LATELY. GIVEN PROBLEMS COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...AN AN ENSEMBLE EFFECT MAY BE BEST AND SO A MAV MET
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN LOWS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAV COOLER. THIS APPARENTLY REFLECTS
DIFFERENT HANDLING BY THE PARENT MODELS OF COOLER DRIER AIR TRYING
TO INFILTRATE. THAT FAR OUT ITS HARD TO BE SURE WHICH IS RIGHT AND
A CONSENSUS SHOULD BE THE MOST SKILLFUL FORECAST FOR NOW.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
IS CLOSE FOR THE PERIOD AND CAN BE USED WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE LONG TERM...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SEE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH IT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY AND WARM BY A
COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE MAINLY VFR TO
MVFR BUT CEILINGS ALREADY INTO KLAF AND JUST UPSTREAM OF KHUF ARE
IFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE IN THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT AS PESSIMISTIC BUT ALSO ARE NOT CAPTURING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OF THE SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT WILL KEEP IT
FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS HANGING AROUND THE ENTIRE
TIME. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SOUTH OF IT...BUT ALL SITES BUT KLAF COULD SEE
THEM BACKING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...THEN
STALL A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR STATE. FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE HOOSIER STATE WILL STAY WEDGED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
PREDICTED TO SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM THE WEST. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID
MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING RAIN
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS OF 15Z.
RAIN...RAIN AND MORE RAIN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO OFFER
BIT MORE DETAIL TO RAINFALL ONSET OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA AND MAYBE MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE TEMPERATURE FALLS LATER
TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
HAVE 100 POPS GOING WHERE IT IS RAINING NOW...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK
POPS QUITE A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT LEAST INITIALLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS. HRRR/WRF ANALYSIS SHOWING A STEADY
EXPANSION TO THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IMPACTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE 100 POPS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE
DAY.
OTHER ISSUE FOCUSES ON TEMPS. HAVE SEEN A QUICK 8-10 DEGREE DROP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SITES OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR IMPACT AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES LATER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT THEIR HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WITH JUST SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO SEE A FEW DEGREE
CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE RAIN SETTLES IN. UTILIZED
THE RAP HOURLY GUIDANCE AS A BASE FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. COULD EASILY SEE
A 15 TO 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDOWN
WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ALONG WITH A RAW
NORTHERLY WIND. COLDER AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
BUNDLE UP AND BE PREPARED FOR COLDER TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE MAIN PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES AS A FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA.
GIVEN WHERE IT HAS THE LOW...THE NAM QPF FIELDS LOOKS STRANGELY DRY
AT 12Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS
ARE PROBABLY BEST.
THE REAL UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED
A LOT WITH EVERY RUN LATELY. GIVEN PROBLEMS COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...AN AN ENSEMBLE EFFECT MAY BE BEST AND SO A MAV MET
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN LOWS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAV COOLER. THIS APPARENTLY REFLECTS
DIFFERENT HANDLING BY THE PARENT MODELS OF COOLER DRIER AIR TRYING
TO INFILTRATE. THAT FAR OUT ITS HARD TO BE SURE WHICH IS RIGHT AND
A CONSENSUS SHOULD BE THE MOST SKILLFUL FORECAST FOR NOW.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
IS CLOSE FOR THE PERIOD AND CAN BE USED WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW WILL
ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. LATEST SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL...HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. SO...WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT...BUT THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE MAINLY VFR TO
MVFR BUT CEILINGS ALREADY INTO KLAF AND JUST UPSTREAM OF KHUF ARE
IFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE IN THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT AS PESSIMISTIC BUT ALSO ARE NOT CAPTURING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OF THE SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT WILL KEEP IT
FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS HANGING AROUND THE ENTIRE
TIME. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SOUTH OF IT...BUT ALL SITES BUT KLAF COULD SEE
THEM BACKING AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
A FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...THEN
STALL A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR STATE. FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE HOOSIER STATE WILL STAY WEDGED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
PREDICTED TO SLOWLY CROSS INDIANA FROM THE WEST. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID
MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING TOWARDS THE
REGION. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING RAIN
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AS OF 15Z.
RAIN...RAIN AND MORE RAIN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO OFFER
BIT MORE DETAIL TO RAINFALL ONSET OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA AND MAYBE MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE TEMPERATURE FALLS LATER
TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
HAVE 100 POPS GOING WHERE IT IS RAINING NOW...BUT HAVE SCALED BACK
POPS QUITE A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT LEAST INITIALLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS. HRRR/WRF ANALYSIS SHOWING A STEADY
EXPANSION TO THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IMPACTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE 100 POPS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE
DAY.
OTHER ISSUE FOCUSES ON TEMPS. HAVE SEEN A QUICK 8-10 DEGREE DROP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SITES OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR IMPACT AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES LATER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT THEIR HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WITH JUST SOUTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO SEE A FEW DEGREE
CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE RAIN SETTLES IN. UTILIZED
THE RAP HOURLY GUIDANCE AS A BASE FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. COULD EASILY SEE
A 15 TO 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDOWN
WITH LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY ALONG WITH A RAW
NORTHERLY WIND. COLDER AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
BUNDLE UP AND BE PREPARED FOR COLDER TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE MAIN PROBLEM IS RAIN CHANCES AS A FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA.
GIVEN WHERE IT HAS THE LOW...THE NAM QPF FIELDS LOOKS STRANGELY DRY
AT 12Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT AND THE HIGHER MAV POPS
ARE PROBABLY BEST.
THE REAL UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED
A LOT WITH EVERY RUN LATELY. GIVEN PROBLEMS COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...AN AN ENSEMBLE EFFECT MAY BE BEST AND SO A MAV MET
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN LOWS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAV COOLER. THIS APPARENTLY REFLECTS
DIFFERENT HANDLING BY THE PARENT MODELS OF COOLER DRIER AIR TRYING
TO INFILTRATE. THAT FAR OUT ITS HARD TO BE SURE WHICH IS RIGHT AND
A CONSENSUS SHOULD BE THE MOST SKILLFUL FORECAST FOR NOW.
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
IS CLOSE FOR THE PERIOD AND CAN BE USED WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW WILL
ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. LATEST SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL...HIGHLIGHTING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. SO...WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT...BUT THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. RAIN IS CURRENTLY
BEGINNING TO IMPACT TAF SITES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE MORNING. PERSISTENT RAIN COULD CAUSE FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
LIFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON...STAYING AT THE IFR/LIFR MARK
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL START
OUT SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST AND FINALLY
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 53. HIGHS
IN THE 50S WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
GRID/ZONE UPDATE OUT TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF LARGE BAND OF RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 6Z. UPSTREAM TRENDS GIVE LITTLE
HOPE OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE MAKING IT INTO FAR NW AREAS UNTIL
AFTER 4Z AT THE EARLIEST WITH RAP SHOWING EVEN LATER (6 TO 8Z).
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z SOUNDING DATA ONCE IT COMES IN AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS AND SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATE IS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE A VERY BALMY, BUT BREEZY THANKSGIVING EVENING WILL BE
IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT WAS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OVER THIS AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WERE SEASONALLY HIGH...HOWEVER... MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES
WERE LESS THAN 100 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. CONCERN FOR HYDRO/FLOOD ISSUES AS ALTHOUGH ALL
THE SNOW HAS MELTED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND
POSSIBLY SOME ROAD FLOODING WHERE STORM DRAINS MAY BE PARTIALLY OR
FULLY OBSTRUCTED FROM LEAVES OR GRASS. PLAN TO MENTION THESE
CONCERNS IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CLEARING HAD ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&DODSON
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015
SPLIT CONUS FLW TO START WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLW LT PD. LEAD
NRN STREAM SPLIT SW TROUGH WILL CONT EWD THROUGH SE CANADA SHRT
TERM ALLOWING SFC FNTL BNDRY TO CONT SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
S/SE W/RAIN LINGERING FRI NIGHT. SFC RIDGE WILL BLD EWD THROUGH
THE SRN LAKES THEREAFTER AS FNTL BNDRY STALLS ACRS THE TN VALLEY
ON SUN.
UPSTREAM DEEP CLOSED LOW OVR THE ROCKIES THEN EJECTS OUT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON MON AS SFC FNT LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY
W/RAIN RTNG PRIMARILY LT MON THOUGH EARLY TUE. VIGOROUS/DEEP
CYCLONIC FLW ACRS THE LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED MAY BRING A FEW SPITS OF
RAIN OR SNOW WITHIN LL CAA WING W/DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WX XPCD
IN WAKE OF THIS SYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE FINALLY PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NWRN GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY PROVIDE PUSH OF UPSTREAM
RAINFALL/LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AROUND DAYBREAK.
WITH ONSLAUGHT OF CONTINUED RAINFALL/COLD AIR ADVECTION ATOP
WARM/WET GROUND HAVE LOWERED CONDS WRT VSBY/CIGS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF DAYTIME HOURS. CONTEMPLATED
TEMPO LIFR PD AT KSBN 16-19 UTC FOR 1/2SM FG OVC003/VV003 HOWEVER
OVERALL CHANCES AND WILL REASSES NEED FOR LATER/12 UTC ISSUANCE.
LAGGED/PERTURBED MOIST LAYER LIKELY TO LEND PERSISTENT IFR CIGS AT
KFWA LONGER THAN KSBN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY BY END OF VALID PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
633 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
...Updated to tonights forecast...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Mesoscale models including the HRRR and RAP13 are all showing an
area of light freezing rain spreading northeast out of western
Oklahoma after midnight. The western part of this area will sweep
through that part of south central Kansas that is already under
a winter weather advisory. Have extended the advisory through the
rest of tonight until 12z Sunday to account for some additional
light ice accumulations which could add up to a few more hundredths
later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south-
central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers
possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As
a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central
Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a
little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends
bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere
will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle
looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position
for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift
aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through.
Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across
the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have
issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts
(1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home
from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but
still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After
this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about
a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for
now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and
into the upcoming business week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs along with MVFR to IFR vsbys will persist at the
central and southwest Kansas terminals through the period. Minimum
conditions should be predominant during the 06z-15z time frame.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 21 32 26 35 / 10 30 60 10
GCK 20 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10
EHA 20 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10
LBL 21 34 25 36 / 10 30 40 10
HYS 21 28 26 33 / 10 60 80 50
P28 26 34 28 38 / 10 30 60 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south-
central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers
possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As
a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central
Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a
little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends
bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere
will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle
looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position
for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift
aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through.
Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across
the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have
issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts
(1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home
from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but
still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After
this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about
a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for
now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and
into the upcoming business week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs along with MVFR to IFR vsbys will persist at the
central and southwest Kansas terminals through the period. Minimum
conditions should be predominant during the 06z-15z time frame.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 21 32 26 35 / 10 30 60 10
GCK 20 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10
EHA 20 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10
LBL 21 34 25 36 / 10 30 40 10
HYS 21 28 26 33 / 10 60 80 50
P28 26 34 28 38 / 10 30 60 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ066-
080-081-088>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SNOW LARGE
CLOSED LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST US. DRY LAYER (APPARENT ON
SATELLITE) IS STILL INFLUENCE OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPLICATE PRECIP TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...STAGNANT/COLD PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THESE PERIODS WITH POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING IN PLACE.
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE IS THE
DEPTH/NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER OUR CWA. A DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 6000 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPED OVER NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA PUTTING AN END TO
PRECIP. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF RETURN FLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE -3 TO -8C
LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS (INDICATED BY MOST GUIDANCE) SHOULD KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY
LAYER IN PLACE LIMITING POTENTIAL OR AT THE VERY LEAST COVERAGE.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING BL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A COMPLICATED PRECIP TYPE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN IF THE RETURN FLOW DOESN`T OCCUR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS END
UP OVERDONE. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND I PLAN ON HANDLING THE
POTENTIAL WITH SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO GO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE FORCING AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DECREASING AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY. FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOES INTO THE NIGHT. PLAN TO GO
WITH HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS MID LEVELS
SATURATE AND ICE FORMS IN THE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS DECREASING AGAIN SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND THE MID 30S MONDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE FA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MODERATING TO
THE LOWER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015
A DRY LAYER BELOW 6000 KFT AGL HAS MOVED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AND ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. MODELS SHOW THE LOWER
LEVELS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH WITH MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT APPEARS KMCK WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS BASED ON MAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS (SHIFT IN WINDS
TO THE SOUTHEAST). WHILE THE TREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE PREVAILING
IS BETTER AT KGLD THERE IS STILL A GOOD SHOT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY 12-18Z. I COULDNT RULE OUT PRECIP MIXING WITH SLEET OR CHANGING
TO SNOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z BEFORE SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECKS DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE
REGION...SETTLING INTO IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z AND
14Z...THEN IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR TO LOW END VFR BY 28/18Z. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN TO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS NORTHEAST
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE UPPER LOW ARE IN PLACE TO THE EAST
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE WEST NEAR NEVADA. THE LOCAL CWA REMAINS
IN MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. THERE AREA
FEW ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND THE HRRR DOES DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS
TODAY BUT THINKING THE COVERAGE WILL BE TO LOW TO HAVE ANY MENTION
OF RAIN IN THE ZONE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL
KEEP THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH NEARLY STATIONARY WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY START MOVING INTO THE LOCAL REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TRACKING MORE BRISKLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE E TO ENE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN A
STRETCHING FRONT AS IT MOVES IN WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAIRLY LOW
IMPACT EVENT WITH MINIMAL THUNDER THREAT AND GENERALLY LOWER RAIN
COVERAGE. IN FACT...DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER IN THE EXTENDING FCST AT
ALL. THE PROGRESSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. THIS RUN MODELS ARE EVEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS WITH NWRN ZONES NOT SEEING ANY RAIN UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.
EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CWA DO NOT SEE RAIN AT ALL. THE ECMWF IS
ON THE WETTER SIDE HOWEVER WITH POP GUIDANCE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE VS MEX WHICH IS NOT EVEN HALF THAT. KEPT THE LONG TERM FCST
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH IS ON THE DRIER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
MEFFER
AVIATION... NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAST 24HR AND THE NEXT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5K FT AREA THIS MORNING AND RISE TO
AROUND 2-3K FT DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL BE INTERMITTENT AS LOW
LEVEL CLEARING WILL GIVE WAY TO DECKS AROUND 12-15K FT. TONIGHT WILL
BE ABOUT THE SAME AS CEILINGS WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 1.5K FT
BUT SOME AREAS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL DECKS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY WEAK TO CALM OVERNIGHT. IF LOW LEVEL CEILINGS CLEAR FOR A
TIME THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION. WILL SHOW THIS AS A
TEMPO GROUP TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PACK BUT ONLY BRING DOWN
TO AROUND 3SM.
MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AND STALL NEAR
TEXARKANA TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE COAST AND STALL AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 58 74 59 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 77 62 77 61 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 74 59 74 58 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 76 63 75 61 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 73 58 72 57 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 75 57 74 54 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ552-555-
570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-557.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ555-570-
572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-557.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THEN TO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS NORTHEAST
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE UPPER LOW ARE IN PLACE TO THE EAST
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE WEST NEAR NEVADA. THE LOCAL CWA REMAINS
IN MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. THERE AREA
FEW ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND THE HRRR DOES DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS
TODAY BUT THINKING THE COVERAGE WILL BE TO LOW TO HAVE ANY MENTION
OF RAIN IN THE ZONE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL
KEEP THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH NEARLY STATIONARY WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY START MOVING INTO THE LOCAL REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TRACKING MORE BRISKLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE E TO ENE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN A
STRETCHING FRONT AS IT MOVES IN WHICH IS TYPICALLY A FAIRLY LOW
IMPACT EVENT WITH MINIMAL THUNDER THREAT AND GENERALLY LOWER RAIN
COVERAGE. IN FACT...DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER IN THE EXTENDING FCST AT
ALL. THE PROGRESSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW FROM NW TO SOUTHEAST. THIS RUN MODELS ARE EVEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS WITH NWRN ZONES NOT SEEING ANY RAIN UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.
EVEN AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CWA DO NOT SEE RAIN AT ALL. THE ECMWF IS
ON THE WETTER SIDE HOWEVER WITH POP GUIDANCE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE VS MEX WHICH IS NOT EVEN HALF THAT. KEPT THE LONG TERM FCST
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH IS ON THE DRIER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION... NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAST 24HR AND THE NEXT.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5K FT AREA THIS MORNING AND RISE TO
AROUND 2-3K FT DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL BE INTERMITTENT AS LOW
LEVEL CLEARING WILL GIVE WAY TO DECKS AROUND 12-15K FT. TONIGHT WILL
BE ABOUT THE SAME AS CEILINGS WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 1.5K FT
BUT SOME AREAS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL DECKS. WINDS WILL
BE VERY WEAK TO CALM OVERNIGHT. IF LOW LEVEL CEILINGS CLEAR FOR A
TIME THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION. WILL SHOW THIS AS A
TEMPO GROUP TOWARD THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PACK BUT ONLY BRING DOWN
TO AROUND 3SM.
&&
.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AND STALL NEAR
TEXARKANA TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE COAST AND STALL AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.
&&
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 58 74 59 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 77 62 77 61 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 74 59 74 58 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 76 63 75 61 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 73 58 72 57 / 10 10 10 10
PQL 75 57 74 54 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ040-050-058-060>062-064-066>070-072.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ552-555-
570-572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-557.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MSZ080>082.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ555-570-
572-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-557.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
314 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW
ALF PENETRATING INTO THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF PERSISTENT WRN TROF/SE
RDG SRN BRANCH FLOW REGIME DOMINATING THE CONUS. NW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE NCNTRL PLAINS IS ADVECTING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA...WITH UPSTREAM 12Z H85 TEMPS -13C AT INL AND -14C AT
YPL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LK EFFECT CLD COVER OVER THE CWA...BUT
LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN...WITH INVRN BASE AT 12Z NEAR H9-925 AT INL AND
YPL...HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE LES
IMPACTING AREAS NEAR LK SUP. THE VERY DRY NATURE OF THE INCOMING
AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWAT ABOUT 0.08 INCH AT BOTH INL/YPL /ABOUT 35
PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS ALSO HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PCPN. LO TEMPS
THIS MRNG WERE QUITE FRIGID AND AS LO AS -5 TO -10F UNDER SFC RDG
AXIS STRETCHING FM THE HI CENTER IN THE DAKOTAS INTO NW ONTARIO.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLDS TRENDS/TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES RDG IS FCST SLIDE SLOWLY SE THRU THE UPR LKS THRU SAT.
TNGT...AS SFC RDG AXIS/SHARP ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER AREA OF DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE/DRY AIR SETTLES ACRS
UPR MI...EXPECT LINGERING LK CLDS TO CLR. WITH PWATS IN THE 0.1 TO
0.2 INCH RANGE/LIGHT WINDS/VERY LO TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG...
WL FAVOR THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH SN COVER. ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STEADY W WINDS/
PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT LK CLDS OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE RDG AXIS PASSING TO THE S WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP THERE.
SAT...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/STEADY W WINDS UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT/STEADY W FLOW TO THE N OF HI PRES RDG AXIS FCST TO STRETCH
FM MN ACRS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI ARE FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS INTO THE
0C TO -2C RANGE BY 00Z SUN. UNDER LINGERING AXIS OF DRY AIR...EXPECT
MOSUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH LOWERING SUN ANGLE WL LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL
HEATING...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LO/MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR
TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT
THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER.
JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.
THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A
LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE
OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE
CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF
VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND
HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS
FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE
MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS
THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE
WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS
QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
AS A HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPR LKS AND WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WSW TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS
TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. CMX WL BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT
AS THE BACKING FLOW UPSLOPES THERE FOR A LONGER TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
AS A HI PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING WSW WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND LO PRES CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES
TYPICALLY ACCENTUATE THIS FLOW. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH
STEADILY LATER ON SAT AND VEER TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A WEAK LO PRES
TROF/SLACKER GRADIENT DIP INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND HI PRES BUILDS
INTO NW ONTARIO. ONCE THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS
ON MON. A STRONGER E WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON TUE AS A
DEEP LO PRES MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNW ON WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LO TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
340 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
Focus continues to be precip chances and amounts. Late tonight,
focus turns to winter p-types. No changes to the Flood Watch at this
time.
Cdfnt continues to slowly push swd thru the area early this morning.
Expect this fnt to continue to slowly sink swd and shud be along the
sern CWA boarder around 00z this evening. Mdls are in good agreement
regarding mass fields thru the period. However, there are some
differences regarding how quickly precip will shift swd.
Latest guidance suggests another wave of precip will push nwd into
the area this evening/overnight, which may push precip nwd again.
While some pockets of rain may push further nwd, believe the bulk of
the precip will remain across the srn half or so of the CWA.
Focus shifts to cold temps pushing into the region behind the fnt.
At most sites across the CWA, the max temp has already occurred. Some
areas across ern portions of the CWA may rise a degree or two yet
early this morning. Otherwise, expect temps to fall thru the day.
Temps across the CWA are expected to remain above freezing today,
perhaps not by much. However, freezing temps are expected to filter
into nrn portions of the CWA late tonight. Have continued mention of
FZRA late tonight into Sat morning. Still have not mentioned ice
accum across this area as low chance of occurrence and warm ground
temps shud prevent icing.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
(Saturday through Sunday)
Mdls are in fairly good agreement thru this period. However, the
latest NAM ejects the upper low into the Plains earlier than the
consensus, resulting in a deeper low forming over the area and
cooler temps aloft. This soln has not been accounted for in the
current forecast.
A few changes to the prev forecast were made. First, low level
thermal fields are once again warmer than yesterday. Have therefore
trended min temps for Sat and Sun night warmer. This will eliminate
the threat for FZRA as long as this trend continues. Mdls continue
to bring what appears to be the remnants of Hurricane Sandra into
the area on Sun into Sun night. Have raised PoPs across much of the
area to account for this soln.
(Monday through Thursday)
Mdl consensus now develops a sfc low further NW across the Plains.
This results in sly flow early in the period across the region. The
GEM continues to be an outlier and have once again disregarded this
soln. Have also once again therefore trended temps twd a GFS/ECMWF
compromise. Still appears that all precip will be out of the region
by Tues with the remainder of the forecast being dry.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
FROPA has occurred over the last hour at both KCOU and KUIN, which
produced an immediate drop of cigs below 1000 feet, with a dip in
vsbys at KUIN into MVFR cat. Expect IFR cigs to hold tough
at these locations overnight and into at least Friday morning.
MVFR vsbys in moderate to occasionally heavy rain also expected
overnight, with a slow improvement on Friday morning as the
heaviest rain shifts to the south. Meanwhile, STL Metro will
remain in the warm sector for several more hours with VFR cigs aoa
5kft as pre-frontal showers slowly work in from the west, with
LLWS potential due to winds just off the surface in the 40-50kt
range. However, based on latest RUC guidance expect FROPA in the
11-13z time frame, with a rapid drop in conditions much as KCOU
and KUIN experienced between 04-05z. IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
expected for much of the day on Friday.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect VFR cigs for several more hours as
pre-frontal showers gradually work into the area. Looking for a
rapid deterioration in conditions around 11z as strong cold front
pushes through the TAF area, with cigs immediately dropping into
the 400-700 ft range, with MVFR vsbys in moderate to heavy rain.
Expect IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys to persist for much of the day on
Friday.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 52 39 42 39 / 100 90 60 50
Quincy 38 34 39 34 / 80 30 20 30
Columbia 39 34 37 36 / 100 70 50 50
Jefferson City 40 35 38 36 / 100 80 60 50
Salem 60 42 44 40 / 100 100 70 60
Farmington 59 39 42 39 / 100 100 80 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Washington MO.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-
St. Clair IL.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Clinton IL-Randolph IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
254 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2015
Focus continues to be precip chances and amounts. Late tonight,
focus turns to winter p-types. No changes to the Flood Watch at this
time.
Cdfnt continues to slowly push swd thru the area early this morning.
Expect this fnt to continue to slowly sink swd and shud be along the
sern CWA boarder around 00z this evening. Mdls are in good agreement
regarding mass fields thru the period. However, there are some
differences regarding how quickly precip will shift swd.
Latest guidance suggests another wave of precip will push nwd into
the area this evening/overnight, which may push precip nwd again.
While some pockets of rain may push further nwd, believe the bulk of
the precip will remain across the srn half or so of the CWA.
Focus shifts to cold temps pushing into the region behind the fnt.
At most sites across the CWA, the max temp has already occurred. Some
areas across ern portions of the CWA may rise a degree or two yet
early this morning. Otherwise, expect temps to fall thru the day.
Temps across the CWA are expected to remain above freezing today,
perhaps not by much. However, freezing temps are expected to filter
into nrn portions of the CWA late tonight. Have continued mention of
FZRA late tonight into Sat morning. Still have not mentioned ice
accum across this area as low chance of occurrence and warm ground
temps shud prevent icing.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
Model solutions have come into much better agreement on mass
fields here, with the wound-up storm system ejecting into the
Plains on Monday and slowly tracking east--north of our region on
Tuesday-- with northwest flow aloft to follow on Wednesday. Large
model spread then resumes for next Thursday, where the EC shows a
much deeper storm trying to take shape for the mid-MS valley than
the GFS.
Either way, pattern is very supportive of keeping the very cold air
locked in Canada. The approach of the main storm system Monday will
allow for one more decent rain chance at all locations after being
largely confined to southern MO and southern IL again on Sunday,
with dry wx for a change Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds in, and probably will continue into Thursday.
Temps look to be around average for the November-December interface.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
FROPA has occurred over the last hour at both KCOU and KUIN, which
produced an immediate drop of cigs below 1000 feet, with a dip in
vsbys at KUIN into MVFR cat. Expect IFR cigs to hold tough
at these locations overnight and into at least Friday morning.
MVFR vsbys in moderate to occasionally heavy rain also expected
overnight, with a slow improvement on Friday morning as the
heaviest rain shifts to the south. Meanwhile, STL Metro will
remain in the warm sector for several more hours with VFR cigs aoa
5kft as pre-frontal showers slowly work in from the west, with
LLWS potential due to winds just off the surface in the 40-50kt
range. However, based on latest RUC guidance expect FROPA in the
11-13z time frame, with a rapid drop in conditions much as KCOU
and KUIN experienced between 04-05z. IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
expected for much of the day on Friday.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect VFR cigs for several more hours as
pre-frontal showers gradually work into the area. Looking for a
rapid deterioration in conditions around 11z as strong cold front
pushes through the TAF area, with cigs immediately dropping into
the 400-700 ft range, with MVFR vsbys in moderate to heavy rain.
Expect IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys to persist for much of the day on
Friday.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 52 39 42 39 / 100 90 60 50
Quincy 40 34 39 34 / 80 30 20 30
Columbia 41 34 37 36 / 100 70 50 50
Jefferson City 44 35 38 36 / 100 80 60 50
Salem 59 42 44 40 / 100 100 70 60
Farmington 57 39 42 39 / 100 100 80 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Washington MO.
Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through Saturday morning
FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO.
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-
St. Clair IL.
Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through Saturday morning
FOR Clinton IL-Randolph IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
A strong wound-up storm system over the Great Basin region of the
western CONUS is expected to move little during this period,
maintaining an active southwest flow aloft over our region, and
shooting out pieces of energy or distrbances our way as well.
The first of these disturbances is expected to arrive shortly after
sundown this evening, with essentially a near continuous train thru
late Saturday after that. The effects of the rainfall that this
brings will be further augmented by a slow moving cold front thru
midday Friday and rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, some of
which will continue to overspread north of the front after it
passes, into the cold air.
Despite much cooler air ushering in behind the cold front,
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for most areas thru
this entire period and will keep pcpn-types as all rain. The
exception is expected to be in parts of northeast MO and west-
central IL late Friday night and early Saturday morning, where temps
will be around the freezing mark. Fortunately, much of the pcpn by
that time should be to the south with only light spotty pcpn
currently anticipated.
Otherwise, the main concern will be the prolonged period of heavy
rainfall--especially for parts of southeast MO and far southern IL--
where rainfall totals may top 4 inches into Saturday. The Flood
Watch will continue, with the addition of Audrain and Lincoln
counties in MO, where similar QPF and contingency forecasts for area
rivers and streams exist. An expansion into Marion, Bond, and
Fayette counties in IL was also considered, with timing of onset
enough to give it one more look before making a final call. Even
though rainfall chances remain high into Saturday afternoon and into
Sunday for southeast MO and southern IL, rainfall amounts look light
enough to justify ending the FFA on Saturday as it currently does.
Temps will be quite mild for late November ahead of the front, but
will rapidly drop to below average for daytime maxes behind it, with
readings in some areas not getting out of the 30s. Fortunately,
plenty of warm air aloft should keep the pcpn as rain unless surface
temps can slip below 32F.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
Model solutions have come into much better agreement on mass
fields here, with the wound-up storm system ejecting into the
Plains on Monday and slowly tracking east--north of our region on
Tuesday-- with northwest flow aloft to follow on Wednesday. Large
model spread then resumes for next Thursday, where the EC shows a
much deeper storm trying to take shape for the mid-MS valley than
the GFS.
Either way, pattern is very supportive of keeping the very cold air
locked in Canada. The approach of the main storm system Monday will
allow for one more decent rain chance at all locations after being
largely confined to southern MO and southern IL again on Sunday,
with dry wx for a change Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds in, and probably will continue into Thursday.
Temps look to be around average for the November-December interface.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2015
FROPA has occurred over the last hour at both KCOU and KUIN, which
produced an immediate drop of cigs below 1000 feet, with a dip in
vsbys at KUIN into MVFR cat. Expect IFR cigs to hold tough
at these locations overnight and into at least Friday morning.
MVFR vsbys in moderate to occasionally heavy rain also expected
overnight, with a slow improvement on Friday morning as the
heaviest rain shifts to the south. Meanwhile, STL Metro will
remain in the warm sector for several more hours with VFR cigs aoa
5kft as pre-frontal showers slowly work in from the west, with
LLWS potential due to winds just off the surface in the 40-50kt
range. However, based on latest RUC guidance expect FROPA in the
11-13z time frame, with a rapid drop in conditions much as KCOU
and KUIN experienced between 04-05z. IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
expected for much of the day on Friday.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect VFR cigs for several more hours as
pre-frontal showers gradually work into the area. Looking for a
rapid deterioration in conditions around 11z as strong cold front
pushes through the TAF area, with cigs immediately dropping into
the 400-700 ft range, with MVFR vsbys in moderate to heavy rain.
Expect IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys to persist for much of the day on
Friday.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Jefferson MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
Washington MO.
Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday morning FOR
Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO.
Flood Watch through late Friday night FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning FOR Madison IL-Monroe IL-
St. Clair IL.
Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday morning FOR
Clinton IL-Randolph IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE PASSING
CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&
.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT (MOSTLY VIRGA SHOWERS) EXIST ACROSS EASTERN
CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE SIERRA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. I
BOOSTED POPS UPWARDS VERY SLIGHTLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...AND THE SIERRA BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
THE HORIZON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THUS FAR...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE FREEZE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THE
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 40-45F ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCALES AT THE 2AM HOUR. PORTIONS
OF SUMMERLIN AND MOUNTAINS EDGE ARE CURRENTLY COMING IN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AT THIS HOUR.
EXPECT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO YIELD
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INYO COUNTY AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS
AND THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO HINT AT ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE AROUND
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL IN ALL AREAS.
SUNDAY...00Z OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A
WEAK SHORTWAVE GETTING PULLED INTO THE STAGNANT LOW...YIELDING A
QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE
DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ONBOARD WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OUR STAGNANT LOW
EASTWARD...BREAKING THE REX BLOCK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...CLEARING
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMUP WILL BE THE STORY SUNDAY AS OUR LOW
DEPARTS THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTER A FEW WEEKS OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED
PERIOD APPEARS TO RELATIVELY TAME. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND QUIET
WEATHER MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGING TAKES CONTROL AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING MORE QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS RANDING
BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS AT TIMES. WINDS LOOK
TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TODAY AOA 15KFT
WITH SCT AS LOW AS 8KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT KVGT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 20-25KTS.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS...OWENS...AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERAL RANGING BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AWAY FROM
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. KDAG WILL SEE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS GENERALLY UNDER
10KFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SNSH AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEAR KBIH
TODAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN
LONG TERM.............WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
635 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
THE HORIZON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THUS FAR...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE FREEZE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THE
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 40-45F ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCALES AT THE 2AM HOUR. PORTIONS
OF SUMMERLIN AND MOUNTAINS EDGE ARE CURRENTLY COMING IN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AT THIS HOUR.
EXPECT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO YIELD
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INYO COUNTY AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS
AND THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO HINT AT ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE AROUND
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL IN ALL AREAS.
SUNDAY...00Z OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A
WEAK SHORTWAVE GETTING PULLED INTO THE STAGNANT LOW...YIELDING A
QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE
DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ONBOARD WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OUR STAGNANT LOW
EASTWARD...BREAKING THE REX BLOCK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...CLEARING
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMUP WILL BE THE STORY SUNDAY AS OUR LOW
DEPARTS THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTER A FEW WEEKS OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED
PERIOD APPEARS TO RELATIVELY TAME. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND QUIET
WEATHER MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGING TAKES CONTROL AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING MORE QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS RANDING
BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS AT TIMES. WINDS LOOK
TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TODAY AOA 15KFT
WITH SCT AS LOW AS 8KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT KVGT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 20-25KTS.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS...OWENS...AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERAL RANGING BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AWAY FROM
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. KDAG WILL SEE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS GENERALLY UNDER
10KFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SNSH AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEAR KBIH
TODAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN
LONG TERM.............WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
328 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
THE HORIZON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THUS FAR...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE FREEZE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THE
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 40-45F ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCALES AT THE 2AM HOUR. PORTIONS
OF SUMMERLIN AND MOUNTAINS EDGE ARE CURRENTLY COMING IN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AT THIS HOUR.
EXPECT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO YIELD
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INYO COUNTY AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS
AND THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALSO HINT AT ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE AROUND
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL IN ALL AREAS.
SUNDAY...00Z OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A
WEAK SHORTWAVE GETTING PULLED INTO THE STAGNANT LOW...YIELDING A
QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE
DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ONBOARD WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OUR STAGNANT LOW
EASTWARD...BREAKING THE REX BLOCK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...CLEARING
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMUP WILL BE THE STORY SUNDAY AS OUR LOW
DEPARTS THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTER A FEW WEEKS OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED
PERIOD APPEARS TO RELATIVELY TAME. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND QUIET
WEATHER MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGING TAKES CONTROL AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING MORE QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
RANDING BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS RESUME BY LATE MORNING AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TODAY AOA 15KFT
WITH FEW AS LOW AS 8KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT KVGT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 20-25KTS.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS...OWENS...AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERAL RANGING BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AWAY FROM
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. KDAG WILL SEE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS GENERALLY UNDER
10KFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SNSH AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEAR KBIH
TODAY. &&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN
LONG TERM.............WOLCOTT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
949 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS THE BIG
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG INVERSION WITH A
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER IT REMAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING NOW FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON. EXPECT
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCO
BELOW...
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS
SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER
IS LOW.
THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY
CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE
HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN
SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY
ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A
POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z EXPANSIVE MVFR
CIGS...AND AT TIMES IFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF REGION.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING EDGING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH. IFR
FLIGHT CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILL OF SW NYS...WHILE ACROSS
KBUF SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SKIES CLEAR.
AS THE SKIES DO CLEAR THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT FORM
LATER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE LOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY...WITH AT TIMES MVFR CIGS NEARING KROC AND KIAG. AS THESE
DIMINISH EXPECT THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHERN TIER FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND
THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...THAT COULD START AS A WINTRY
MIX AND END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 933 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AMOUNT
OF CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. IR SATELLITE PICS SHOW UPSTREAM
CLEARING UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
THINKING WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN SURFACE AND 800MB.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CLEARING JUST ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER THAT
IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE ARE
ALSO SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL VT THAT ARE
ADDING TO THE MIX. WITH ALL OF THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
GIVEN THE COMPLEX SKY COVER AND WEAK ADVECTION...BUT WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. THINKING LOW TEENS IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF MORE
CLEARING DEVELOPS THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z
SUNDAY. HAVE NOTED WEAK SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THINKING THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIMITED CLEARING ON
UPSTREAM SATL PICS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY
IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ARE BETWEEN -2C SOUTH TO -6C
NORTH ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAIN
TOWNS TO UPPER 30S VALLEYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A CHILLY BUT
MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS
AFTER A CHILLY START. ANOTHER DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE LIKELY. DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING PROFILES AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND COLDEST IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/SAINT LAWRENCE AND MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. THE DAY WILL START
OFF BELOW FREEZING...BUT ENOUGH WARMING INDICATED BY AFTERNOON SO
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN FORM OF RAIN...WITH JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE AT ONSET. PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST...AND WEAK
SECONDARY REFLECTION INDICATED ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
30S.
MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKE THEIR EASTWARD INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN PASS
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING TILL ABOUT
03Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER ON TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODES FROM NW-SW. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MV
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
647 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...OTHER THAN TO BUMP SKY COVER UP A TAD. IT IS STILL CLOUDY
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCO BELOW...
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS
SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER
IS LOW.
THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY
CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE
HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN
SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY
ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A
POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z EXPANSIVE MVFR
CIGS...AND AT TIMES IFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF REGION.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING EDGING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH. IFR
FLIGHT CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILL OF SW NYS...WHILE ACROSS
KBUF SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR BEFORE SKIES CLEAR.
AS THE SKIES DO CLEAR THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT FORM
LATER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE LOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY...WITH AT TIMES MVFR CIGS NEARING KROC AND KIAG. AS THESE
DIMINISH EXPECT THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHERN TIER FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND
THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MOST OF FRIDAY WITH MILD WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FOR LATE NOVEMBER SATURDAY.
THIS DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING
OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 500 MB AND
UP. HENCE FORECAST BEGINS PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS. THE 18Z NAM IS
STILL MOST AGRESSIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING UP NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z AS
SEEN IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS WHICH BECOME SATURATED. THE HRRR AND
RAP NOW BOTH ARE SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHEAST
IN NE PA/SC NY BTWN 5 AND 9Z SIMILAR TO NAM. BUT LOOKING AT
SATELLITE AND METARS THIS MOISTURE STILL LOOKS OVERDONE. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WON`T BE ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY SO NO PRECIP IN
FORECAST GRIDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR FRIDAY, ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REACH LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE BY 18Z FRIDAY AND TO
ABOUT UTICA TO PENN YAN/HORNELL AREA IN CENTRAL NY BY 00Z. THE 12Z
EUROPEAN MODEL, 15Z SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS
WHICH HAS THE FRONT A BIT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS FRONT HOLDING IT BACK TO
ABOUT SARANAC LAKE TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NY BY 00Z SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT AND AS A RESULT HAVE
BACKED OFF SHOWERS THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT SOME. THE
MAIN DYNAMICAL FEATURE THAT WAS SUPPORTING LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WHICH EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC NORTHEAST TO
THE MARITIMES AT 00Z SATURDAY. THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HENCE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODEL QPFS SHOW THIS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NY SATURDAY. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING
ALL DAY SATURDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS PER THE 12Z CMC AND EUROPEAN
MODELS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY IN OUR AREA.
USED SUPERBLEND OF MODELS TO COME UP WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.
THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SKIES WILL
TURN FAIR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WINTER
STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS. AS ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP IN THE
LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND LEADS TO MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE BEGINS TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BUT IDEA IS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND CHILLY
WEATHER FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY CLOUDS AT 3-5 KFT OVER NORTHEAST PA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE OVC TODAY BUT CIGS HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH HEIGHTS ABOVE 5000 FT. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KTS AT
2000 FEET WILL RESULT IN SOME LLWS AT ELM/ITH/SYR/RME UNTIL AROUND
15Z TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS
AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS
TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECK...BECOMING VFR.
SUN/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
928 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS TEND TO FAVOR FOG SOUTH
OF DEVILS LAKE A LITTLE FURTHER. UPDATED FOG EXTENT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO NW GRIGGS COUNTY. FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE GRAND FORKS AREA ACCORDING TO THE HRRR.
HOWEVER...THE NEW NAM MOS GUIDANCE REMOVED MENTION OF FOG. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FOG NORTH AND WEST OF GF.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRESHENED UP A FEW FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. CHANGED SKY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. ALL IN ALL...THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON NORTHERN MN FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH. MAY NEED TO EXPAND FOG FROM NORTHERN ND AND
FAR NW MN FURTHER EAST TO BAUDETTE. WILL CONSIDER WITH NEXT
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AFFECTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW SHIELD WILL GET. THERE HAS
BEEN A MODEL TREND OF DELAYING ARRIVAL OF SNOW. MODELS ALSO SEEM
TO BE TRENDING A BIT SOUTH THIS RUN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
WHICH IS FARTHEST NORTH AND THIS RUN AN OUTLIER. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS CONSISTENCY AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD
SPREAD BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH HALF HALF OF
THE FA. FARTHER NORTH UNDER SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AND ADDED TO FORECAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF SUNDAY WITH LOBE ROTATING AROUND
UPPER LOW SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME
COOLER SPREADING FROM S-N DURING THE DAY AND MORE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION WITH FAVORED POTENTIAL NOW MORE TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HIGHEST POPS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE ND/SD MN BORDER REGIONS WITH MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY NO HEADLINES
PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE SE FA TUESDAY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS...CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY EVENING...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEARS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A MOVE TOWARDS
MORE DOMINANT H5 RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WE CAN EXPECT A SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
TROFFING DIGS DEEPLY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY COULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT /MIXED/
PRECIPITATION AS A CUTOFF LOW REFORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
THE H5 TROF AXIS PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
ADDED HINT OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN KDVL FOR LATE TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL
CONTINUES TO HAVE PATCHY LOW CIGS/VIS TONIGHT ACROSS THE KDVL
AREA...BUT KEEPS THE FOG NORTH OF KGFK. NAM MOS GUIDANCE DOES HINT
AT LOW IFR CIGS FOR KGFK...AND WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. ONSET WOULDN`T BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. LESS
OF A CHANCE AT KTVF...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
920 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THOSE TRENDS...SO WE NOW HAVE
LOWS OF 0 TO 10 ABOVE F IN MANY PARTS THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS THUS
FAR THIS EVENING HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS DROPPING JUST AS QUICKLY AS
THE TEMPERATURES...THUS DELAYING FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ITS FORMATION AFTER 06 UTC. BASED ON
THE TRENDS IN HRRR SIMULATIONS...WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF FOG
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW IS INDEED WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
ND AND SD BORDER...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLE HRRR GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW OVER
WESTERN SD WOULD APPEAR A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
WOULD HAVE US BELIEVE...BUT IT IS INDEED WEAKENING WITH NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT LIKE MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST SO WE WILL HANG ONTO ONLY
LOW POPS NEAR THE SD BORDER OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS
GOING TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN FROM 22 UTC SUGGESTS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD /FURTHER SOUTH/
WITH LOWER VISIBILITY THAN ITS PRIOR FEW ITERATIONS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF ANY EXPANSION OF
OUR FOG MENTION IS NECESSARY IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BRINGING
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEADING
WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH THAT SAID...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE ACTUALLY DRIED THINGS OUT MORE IN THE LATEST
RUN. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCES ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN
TIER. TOWARDS THE NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH HIGH-RES
MODELS SUGGEST FOG FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
SPREADING SOUTHERLY IN AREAS THAT REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TO SEE IF COVERAGE NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LOW STRETCHES TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING KEEPING
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH...CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WHILE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OR LITTLE SNOW PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
RECEIVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW BY A HUNDRED MILES OR SO. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE LOW
NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS. THIS TRACK FAVORS SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND SREF
PUSH THE LOW FURTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK
WOULD LEAVE MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. UTILIZED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS YIELDED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH AROUND I-94 AND CLOSER TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY. WHILE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94...THESE AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR PERHAPS LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS IS OVER SOUTHWEST ND IN THE KHEI AND KDIK AREAS. FOG WITH
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRESHENED UP A FEW FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. CHANGED SKY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. ALL IN ALL...THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON NORTHERN MN FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH. MAY NEED TO EXPAND FOG FROM NORTHERN ND AND
FAR NW MN FURTHER EAST TO BAUDETTE. WILL CONSIDER WITH NEXT
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AFFECTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW SHIELD WILL GET. THERE HAS
BEEN A MODEL TREND OF DELAYING ARRIVAL OF SNOW. MODELS ALSO SEEM
TO BE TRENDING A BIT SOUTH THIS RUN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
WHICH IS FARTHEST NORTH AND THIS RUN AN OUTLIER. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS CONSISTENCY AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD
SPREAD BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH HALF HALF OF
THE FA. FARTHER NORTH UNDER SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AND ADDED TO FORECAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF SUNDAY WITH LOBE ROTATING AROUND
UPPER LOW SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME
COOLER SPREADING FROM S-N DURING THE DAY AND MORE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION WITH FAVORED POTENTIAL NOW MORE TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HIGHEST POPS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE ND/SD MN BORDER REGIONS WITH MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY NO HEADLINES
PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE SE FA TUESDAY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS...CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY EVENING...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEARS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A MOVE TOWARDS
MORE DOMINANT H5 RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WE CAN EXPECT A SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
TROFFING DIGS DEEPLY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY COULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT /MIXED/
PRECIPITATION AS A CUTOFF LOW REFORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
THE H5 TROF AXIS PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
ADDED HINT OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN KDVL FOR LATE TONIGHT. HRRR MODEL
CONTINUES TO HAVE PATCHY LOW CIGS/VIS TONIGHT ACROSS THE KDVL
AREA...BUT KEEPS THE FOG NORTH OF KGFK. NAM MOS GUIDANCE DOES HINT
AT LOW IFR CIGS FOR KGFK...AND WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENT. ONSET WOULDN`T BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. LESS
OF A CHANCE AT KTVF...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
HELP TURN WINDS NORTH AND BRING IN DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...UNTIL A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RAIN THAT REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. RECENT HRRR AND RAP
RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT FURTHER RAIN COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND
THE LOWER 40S ALONG OHIO RIVER AND IN KY COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT IS LINGERING IN THE SOUTH TO QUICKLY EXIT
SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING PAST THE MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 50S IN KY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN EXTENSIVE
AND EXHIBIT SOME BREAKS OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
AFTER THIS TIME...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL STREAM BACK IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL WRING OUT THIS
MOISTURE WHEN IT PASSES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LARGE SFC CYCLONE AFFECTING THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AT 12Z. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE ON THE 50S ON TUESDAY BEFORE
FROPA. AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY EXPECT A
SURGE OF PCPN ACROSS THE FA...MAINLY THE ERN 2/3...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FROM W TO E WITH FROPA. THE 12Z GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE PCPN SURGE ON TUESDAY.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION WHICH IS A
LITTLE QUICKER.
COLDER AIR WILL WORK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S. ON WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CAA AND WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE FA. ONCE AGAIN
THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE H5 LOW AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH
THE WRAP AROUND. ACTUALLY PREFER THIS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON
WEDNESDAY...RANDING IN THE 40S.
LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL WORK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 09Z.
EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO VFR FROM KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FURTHER
SOUTH. SO IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE EVENTUALLY RISING TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT
KILN/KCVG/KLUK. THESE LATTER LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER RAIN
DEVELOPMENT. BUT CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CATEGORIES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
940 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Patchy areas of light rain continue this evening...and all
reporting sites in the forecast area are now above 32 degrees.
Temps not expected to drop any further through the remainder of
the night as the slow modification of the shallow cold airmass
continues. Precip expanding across NW Texas in response to jet max
and expect this to continue expanding into eastern OK later
tonight. Have raised pops a little across NE OK as HRRR has
consistently developed rain across this area after 06z. Overall
changes to forecast aside from that will be minor.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of rain will continue to moves across the region over the
next 24 hours with widespread IFR conditions. While the rain
has diminished in coverage this evening, an increase in coverage
is expected after 09z...especially in southern areas.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Very slow moderation of the shallow cold airmass in place across
the area will continue to occur over the next 36 to 48 hours. The
process will then hasten by Monday afternoon as winds shift to a
more westerly component. Will cancel the flash flood watch with
this issuance. While additional rainfall is expected over the next
24-36 hours, rainfall rates will not be sufficient to result in
flash flooding. An areal flood warning remains in effect where the
greatest additional rainfall amounts will occur. The northwest
corner of Osage County remains near the freezing line, and this
will likely remain the case for much of the night. There are some
indiciations that just like last night, temperatures may warm a
degree or so late tonight, which is the most likely time period
for measurable rain in that area. Thus, no mention of wintry
precipitation will be carried at this time.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail most of next
week once this system clears the area. The next storm system will
bring a chance of rain back to the area just beyond the range of
this forecast.
The NAM12 temperatures were all within a degree of observed
readings during the past 24 hours, and will continue to use these
values for the forecast until the winds shift and help to scour
out the shallow cold air Monday.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 36 42 39 49 / 70 70 50 30
FSM 43 47 45 52 / 60 90 40 30
MLC 37 43 41 51 / 70 100 40 20
BVO 35 41 38 47 / 60 70 60 40
FYV 39 47 44 50 / 50 90 40 30
BYV 38 44 42 50 / 50 80 40 40
MKO 37 45 41 50 / 70 90 50 30
MIO 37 42 40 48 / 50 70 50 40
F10 35 42 40 49 / 70 100 40 30
HHW 42 44 44 52 / 70 100 60 20
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE IS EVER SO SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE JUST SLID SOUTH OF KAOO IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH LIGHT FRONTAL
RAINBANDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. FROM I80 NORTHWARD...THE RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE TO BE EXPECTED IN SPOTS. TEMPS
NEAR THE NY BORDER ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FREEZING.
TAPERING OF SHOWERS IS ON TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
PA. AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AS DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS ARE
FINALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AFTER
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S MOST OF THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE RISING
CIGS/CLEARING SKIES ANYTIME BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...A
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/
CIGS AT KUNV AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NORTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA HAS ALREADY CAUSED CIGS
TO RISE AT KIPT LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
PLAY OUT AT KMDT/KLNS WITH MVFR CIGS TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
901 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE IS EVER SO SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE JUST SLID SOUTH OF KAOO IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH LIGHT FRONTAL
RAINBANDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. FROM I80 NORTHWARD...THE RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE TO BE EXPECTED IN SPOTS. TEMPS
NEAR THE NY BORDER ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FREEZING.
TAPERING OF SHOWERS IS ON TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
PA. AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AS DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS ARE
FINALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AFTER
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S MOST OF THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR
AS EARLY AS 03Z OR AS LATE AS DAWN. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS AT
KUNV/KMDT/KLNS AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NEAR TERM
MDL SOUNDINGS/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS AT KIPT
OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 2345Z HAS ONLY SHIFTED SOUTH BY ABOUT 50 MILES
SINCE MID AFTERNOON AS PER RADAR MOSAIC EXTRAPOLATION. WIDESPREAD
WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO ACT ON ABOVE NORMAL PW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTHWARD.
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG. =EMPS
CONT TO HOLD IN THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL SLIP BACK
INTO THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR
AS EARLY AS 03Z OR AS LATE AS DAWN. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS AT
KUNV/KMDT/KLNS AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NEAR TERM
MDL SOUNDINGS/HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS AT KIPT
OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 2345Z HAS ONLY SHIFTED SOUTH BY ABOUT 50 MILES
SINCE MID AFTERNOON AS PER RADAR MOSAIC EXTRAPOLATION. WIDESPREAD
WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO ACT ON ABOVE NORMAL PW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
LATE TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT CONTS TO SAG SOUTHWARD.
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG. =EMPS
CONT TO HOLD IN THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL SLIP BACK
INTO THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER CALL...AS GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS 03Z OR
AS LATE AS DAWN. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS OF ARND 1KFT AT KAOO/KUNV AND ARND 3KFT
AT LOWER ELEVATION KMDT/KLNS. NEAR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS/HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDS AT KIPT ARND 02Z UPON
ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO AND ESP KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
MON NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SW.
TUE-WED...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
THU...LOW CIGS NW. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER CALL...AS GRADUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR AS EARLY AS 03Z OR
AS LATE AS DAWN. ELSEWHERE...A DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS OF ARND 1KFT AT KAOO/KUNV AND ARND 3KFT
AT LOWER ELEVATION KMDT/KLNS. NEAR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS/HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDS AT KIPT ARND 02Z UPON
ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO AND ESP KJST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES IN AOO YESTERDAY...11/27...BROKE
THE RECORD OF 65 DEGREES SET IN 1988.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY. COOL AND WET HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT THEN ARRIVES FROM THE WEST IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST FRIDAY...THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY MOST
AREAS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE VALUES SUPPORTED BY MORNING SOUNDING
THICKNESSES BUT IS IN LINE WITH BL AND 850 MB TEMP INCREASES OVER
YESTERDAY...WHEN IT WAS QUITE WARM...PLUS WARM HOURLY TEMPS ON THE
LATEST RAP RUN.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WHILE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO HELP EROSE ANY
LINGERING MORNING STRATUS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ATOP THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE HIGH. FURTHER
WEST...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY BEING NEAR/ALONG
THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS BY EARLY SATURDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STREAM IN OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL AXIS...CARRIED ALONG BY THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SKY COVER
HIGHLIGHTED...ALL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE COLUMN TO
EXPECT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER. PLEASANTLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH MAX
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS TROUGH
SWINGS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND RESULTING CONFLUENCE ALLOWS SFC
HIGH TO BUILD OUT OF CANADA...DRIVING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO VIRGINIA. ALONG THE SAME BOUNDARY...A WEAK SFC WAVE SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION IN RESPONSE TO WRN CONUS
UPPER CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA TO BRING IN PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL RESULT SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF EARLY FRI MRNG...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SET UP EARLY MONDAY...AND THOUGH LOW
LEVELS REMAIN MOIST...SOME DRYING OCCURS BRIEFLY ALOFT. GFS AND EC
PRODUCE MOST OF THEIR QPF NORTH OF THE CWFA WELL N OF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF NEXT MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SYSTEM...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WAA AND MOISTURE FLUX OCCURS MON
NIGHT AND TUE WHICH IMPLIES BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HOWEVER THE SETUP
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH GFS PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH AND LLVL WIND SPEEDS BEING RELATIVELY TAME
PRIOR TO COLD FROPA WED. COLD ADVECTION AND NW FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT
ARE SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED...AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT OVER NRN FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI.
IN THE WEDGE MON-TUE...EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL MAX TEMPS BUT WITH WARM
MINS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW WED WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. ANY LINGERING LOWER
STRATUS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WILL ERODE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH CIRRUS WILL DOMINATE THE SKIES WITH A
GRADUAL LOWERING TO THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF
CYCLE. GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR WIDESPREAD LOWERING OF VSBY DUE TO FOG
ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AMIDST LIGHT
WINDS...HOWEVER DUE TO ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE...OPTED TO ONLY
INCLUDE MVFR OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS/FTHILLS SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY YIELDING
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 77%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CDG/HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A
VERY MILD AND WET WEEK AHEAD FOR THE MID STATE. RADAR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. LATEST 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE AND 19Z HRRR INDICATE LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN SPREAD FURTHER EAST ON
SATURDAY. RAIN ANTICIPATED TO BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND OF
HEAVIER INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS
INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S/60S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS INDICATE RAIN WILL SLACKEN OFF SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 80 KT H5 SPEED MAX
EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW K-INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 30S AND LI VALUES OF -1 ON MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL IS LOW. TOTAL QPF THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MOST AREAS
LOOKING TO SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DRY OUR AREA OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH GFS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN BUT EMCWF KEEPING US DRY. WILL SHOW LOW POPS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. COOLER TEMPS LOOK
LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 58 67 56 61 / 40 60 80 80
CLARKSVILLE 58 62 51 58 / 80 80 80 80
CROSSVILLE 53 64 55 61 / 10 20 60 80
COLUMBIA 57 67 56 61 / 30 40 80 80
LAWRENCEBURG 56 68 56 62 / 20 30 70 80
WAVERLY 58 64 53 59 / 60 70 80 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
944 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPRINKLES LIKELY REACHING THE
GROUND OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS
INDICATE LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
MENTION SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE MID STATE. HIGHS FOR TODAY STILL SEEM
REASONABLE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT DID NUDGE THEM DOWN A
DEGREE IN NORTHWEST ZONES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD KEEP MID STATE DRY THRU 28/00Z WITH SLY
WINDS 5-10 KTS AND BKN CI EXPECTED. SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN INFLUENCING CKV WX BY NO LATER THAN 28/01Z. AS LOW LEVEL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN...LOOK FOR A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM VFR TO IFR CEILINGS CKV
WITH MVFR VSBYS 28/05Z-28/12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 28/12Z BNA/CSV
WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS FORMATION 28/06Z-28/12Z BNA. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
LIGHT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED BY 28/09Z. CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OF SLY SFC
WINDS AROUND 5KT EXPECTED 28/00Z-28/12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HRS. IT IS THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL BEGIN TO TILT THE WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ONE. IN THE MEANTIME...LATEST NATIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE RAIN AREA IS INTO MUCH OF MO AND AR.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM
THE NRN GULF TO THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONALLY...SFC RIDGING IS LOCATED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD. A RATHER STRONG SUB
POLAR JET IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE WEST.
WITH TIME...THE JET WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BRINGING AN
EVENTUAL INCREASE TO OUR POPS HERE IN MIDDLE TN. THE POP BREAKDOWN
LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY LOW POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE OUR NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE THE POPS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP INTO THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITIVE CATEGORY. BY SAT NT AND SUN...POPS WILL RAMP UP
AREA WIDE AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND IMPULSES
BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS THOUGH SUN NT GOES...WE COULD SEE AS MUCH AS
2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES FAR NW...WITH AN INCH OR SO EAST.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE HERE FOR A WHILE.
LOW TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY 10
TO 15 DEGREES OR SO. THE DAILY RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST MIN TEMPS
ARE WELL INTO THE 60S...SO NO RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED IN
TERMS OF OUR MILD MINS COMING UP.
LONG TERM(MON-THU)...
THE SLY SFC TO SWLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RICH FETCH PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
THUS...EXPECT WET WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THRU AT TUE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MID STATE...AS FINALLY A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU THE REGION BY TUE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE PCPN WILL BE OF SHWR
NATURE OUT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND PASSAGE...RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE
IT WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON MON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES
FROM THE ROCKIES WILL THEN TRY TO BUILD INTO THE MID STATE AS WED
PROGRESSES...AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST NW
PORTIONS OF MID STATE...BUT A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IN CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS REMAINDER OF MID STATE AS WED PROGRESSES.
EXPECT THE MID STATE TO REMAIN DRY ON WED NIGHT BEFORE YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...PER LEAN TOWARD
LATEST GFS SOLUTION...THU AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU
ACROSS THE MID STATE.
AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR SEASONAL WARM TEMPS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MID STATE THRU TUE AFTERNOON. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...PER ABOVE
MENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES...A CAA
PATTERN WILL SET IN RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES AS THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 56 67 54 61 / 30 50 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 56 65 52 60 / 80 80 80 80
CROSSVILLE 51 65 51 59 / 10 20 50 70
COLUMBIA 54 68 54 61 / 20 30 70 80
LAWRENCEBURG 54 68 55 61 / 10 20 60 80
WAVERLY 56 66 54 61 / 50 60 80 80
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION.
VERY LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
PRECIP WILL BE MORE OF DRIZZLE/MIST. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING
ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE JET. HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH POP
IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER QPF WILL BE OFF THE NW. AGAIN
HOWEVER THE QPF WILL BE SMALL. NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
AVIATION...
LOW CIGS ARE HANGING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
TOWARD AUS FROM THE SOUTH AND MAY IMPACT THE AIRPORT WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND HAVE MINOR IMPACT
ON VIS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO AND TO LIFR AT AUS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT DRT
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT PINNING DOWN WHERE AND
WHEN IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWERS WILL ONLY LOWER VIS
TO MVFR. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY EXCEPT AT DRT WHERE THEY
SHOULD GO TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE AIRMASS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVED IN
YESTERDAY REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LOWEST
3500 FEET. TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO WARM DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THE NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 15
MPH IS ALSO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL ACT AS AN INSULATOR THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS FOR TOMORROW LIKELY NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL SUNDAY AS WELL WITH
SOLID CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
AIDS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ENHANCED AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SOME OF THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION BANDING THAT OCCURS COULD CLIP THE HILL
COUNTRY AND TOWARDS WILLIAMSON COUNTY. NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST WILL
LOCATED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE LLANO...BURNET...AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTY AREAS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM AS A SLOW WARMING TREND
OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THAT WILL AID IN WEAK SOUTH WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BRING BACK
MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS. THIS WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST
BARELY INLAND BASED ON MULTI-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THIS
WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS AN ENHANCED 300MB JET STREAK OF 120 KTS
REMAINS OVER NORTH TEXAS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 1.2" BUT
EASTERN/COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR 1.5" AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FROM A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MORE THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINT
RECOVERY LOOKS MEAGER AS THE LOW-LVL SOUTH FLOW IS TOO WEAK WITH
HIGHER PWATS AND INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR NOW WITH NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION GIVEN THE SET-UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SLOWLY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN COOL AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 42 46 45 60 47 / 70 60 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 46 44 59 47 / 70 60 40 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 46 60 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 43 42 58 44 / 70 80 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 57 47 63 48 / 70 40 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 44 42 58 44 / 70 80 40 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 50 46 62 50 / 60 40 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 42 45 45 58 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 45 49 47 59 50 / 60 50 40 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 49 47 62 51 / 60 50 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 49 47 62 52 / 60 40 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
LEXINGTON TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR OUR AREA
FOR TONIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS SHOWING
SOME 2 INCH IN 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEHIND
THE FRONT. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH FOR THIS
AREA...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
THE PW VALUES TOO HIGH WITH 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWS 1.8
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DO THINK RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EVEN IF 2 INCHES
FALL OVER 6 HOURS...RAIN RATES SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH PER
HOUR AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE COLD SECTOR
AND THE BEST WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SHUT DOWN.
CONTINUE TO THINK THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF MAY ACTUALLY FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES....BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO.
THE VARIOUS WRF MODELS AND NOW THE HRRR CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR DEL RIO...THEN TRACK TO THE ESE IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY HELP LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE LIFT TO SUPPORT BETTER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE AREA AS
SOME OF THE AIR BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND THE SURFACE LOW ALSO
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP RATES. IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED SURFACE TROUGH...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE
POINTING TO THIS REGION AS WELL FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE EASTERN AND
THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON. OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP GRAPHIC FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM ZAVALA COUNTY UP INTO MEDINA/UVALDE AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. AM EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS REACHING 4+.
WHILE THERE ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT...THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LACKING FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST IS DEEP
FORCING FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BEST SHEAR AXIS /LIFT/ REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
MEANS OUR MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SECOND...OUR REGION IS ALSO UNDERNEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH ALSO ISNT FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. THIRD...WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT IN PLACE BUT
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STALL AND THUS WILL NOT SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. LASTLY...THE 850 FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
WILL NOT ENHANCE FRONTAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TO
SUMMARIZE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN
LOCALIZED PLACES...BUT WE ARE LACKING MECHANISMS FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S/40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM THOSE VALUES. OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FROM TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING RAIN AMOUNTS EVEN
FURTHER. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...BUT NOT BY
MUCH AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THESE POPS WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SET UP OVER THE AREA
AND WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE CURRENT EVENT AND MORE TYPICAL FOR
THE WINTER SEASON. THE FORECAST WILL DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 46 43 49 45 / 90 80 70 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 47 44 49 44 / 80 80 70 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 47 44 51 45 / 80 80 70 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 44 40 47 42 / 90 80 70 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 47 44 57 45 / 80 60 50 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 40 44 41 48 42 / 90 80 70 70 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 48 44 53 46 / 90 80 70 50 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 44 50 45 / 80 80 70 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 50 44 51 48 / 80 70 60 60 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 47 48 45 51 47 / 90 80 70 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 50 46 53 48 / 80 80 70 50 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TEXAS COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 70S...AND
READINGS ARE QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY (SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO) WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING
RAIN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS OUR AREA.
STILL THINK WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN ALMOST 20 TO 25 DEGREE SPREAD
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND FROM IN/AROUND THE COLLEGE STATION
AREA) TO IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA IF THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
AS OF 11Z...ONLY KIAH/KHOU WERE EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CIGS DUE TO
SEA FOG DEVELOPING OFF GALVESTON BAY. EXPECT LOW CIGS AT THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WE HAVE A HODGE
PODGE OF CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR AT KGLS/KLBX AND MVFR
FOR KSGR/KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. OVERALL THINK CEILINGS RISE TO
2000-3000FT LEVELS WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY. CIGS THEN DROP AFTER SUNSET TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
AS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. THAT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS COMING
IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. ADDED WIND SHIFT FOR MOST TAFS FROM
00Z TO 09Z SAT FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KLBX/KGLS WHERE THE FRONT
MIGHT NOT REACH ASSUMING IT STALLS. BASED FROPA ON LATEST HRRR AND
WRF ARW/NMM RUNS. FRONT SEEMS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN THESE
MODELS ANYWAY. THIS PUTS THE FRONT INTO KCLL RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND
THEN KIAH AROUND 09Z SO IT DOES TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING SOUTH AND
WHY IT MAY STALL. ALSO NOTE THAT THIS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE LATEST NAM/GFS RUNS. BASICALLY THE FROPA AND WIND SHIFT
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT ONE THAT COULD REASONABLY OCCUR.
SUSPECT THAT THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND FRONT WILL CHANGE
WITH BETTER GUIDANCE AND FUTURE TAF UPDATES. REGARDLESS OF WHEN
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...CIGS MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES GOING INTO SATURDAY.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SE TEXAS CONTINUED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AT 4 AM. BECAUSE OF
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST ITEM OF CONCERN INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT ENTERING
THE COLLEGE STATION AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD LATER
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MAY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 4-DAY PERIOD ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. MODEL PW/S
DO REACH A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILE FORECASTS ARE STILL NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 4-DAY RAINFALL
TOTAL BY MIDDAY MONDAY RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GROVETON TO HUNTSVILLE TO BRENHAM. LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO BAY CITY.
LESSONING CHANCES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER MOST AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT MAY
PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST LATER ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE. ADVISORIES
AND CAUTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
BE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SEAS TO DECREASE SOME. THERE
ARE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS MIXED WITH WIND WAVES WHICH MAY KEEP
SEAS AT MODERATE TO ROUGH LEVELS. SEAS SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE LATER
ON WEDNESDAY.
SEA FOG...IT APPEARS THAT SEA FOG MAY NOT FORM SINCE WATER TEMPS
HAVE INCREASED AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT FOG
MAY NOT FORM.
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...TIDES AT EAGLE POINT AND GALVESTON NORTH
JETTY ARE ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.9 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS LEADING TO TOTAL WATER LEVELS OF AROUND 3 FEET
ABOVE MLLW. HIGH TIDE AT GALVESTON NORTH JETTY THIS EVENING AROUND
6PM CST IS ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE MLLW SO ADDING AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 FEET
WOULD YIELD WATER LEVELS AROUND 3.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW. ONCE AGAIN
THESE LEVELS WOULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO HIGHWAY 87 ALONG BOLIVAR
PENINSULA. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SHOULD THESE
TIDE TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 49 50 46 53 / 50 70 60 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 65 69 57 67 / 30 40 40 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 68 74 64 72 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
554 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS OF 11Z...ONLY KIAH/KHOU WERE EXPERIENCING IFR/LIFR CIGS DUE TO
SEA FOG DEVELOPING OFF GALVESTON BAY. EXPECT LOW CIGS AT THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WE HAVE A HODGE
PODGE OF CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR AT KGLS/KLBX AND MVFR
FOR KSGR/KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. OVERALL THINK CEILINGS RISE TO
2000-3000FT LEVELS WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY. CIGS THEN DROP AFTER SUNSET TO MVFR AND THEN IFR
AS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. THAT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS COMING
IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. ADDED WIND SHIFT FOR MOST TAFS FROM
00Z TO 09Z SAT FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KLBX/KGLS WHERE THE FRONT
MIGHT NOT REACH ASSUMING IT STALLS. BASED FROPA ON LATEST HRRR AND
WRF ARW/NMM RUNS. FRONT SEEMS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN THESE
MODELS ANYWAY. THIS PUTS THE FRONT INTO KCLL RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND
THEN KIAH AROUND 09Z SO IT DOES TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING SOUTH AND
WHY IT MAY STALL. ALSO NOTE THAT THIS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE LATEST NAM/GFS RUNS. BASICALLY THE FROPA AND WIND SHIFT
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT ONE THAT COULD REASONABLY OCCUR.
SUSPECT THAT THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND FRONT WILL CHANGE
WITH BETTER GUIDANCE AND FUTURE TAF UPDATES. REGARDLESS OF WHEN
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...CIGS MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES GOING INTO SATURDAY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SE TEXAS CONTINUED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AT 4 AM. BECAUSE OF
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST ITEM OF CONCERN INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT ENTERING
THE COLLEGE STATION AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD LATER
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MAY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 4-DAY PERIOD ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. MODEL PW/S
DO REACH A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILE FORECASTS ARE STILL NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 4-DAY RAINFALL
TOTAL BY MIDDAY MONDAY RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GROVETON TO HUNTSVILLE TO BRENHAM. LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO BAY CITY.
LESSONING CHANCES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER MOST AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT MAY
PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST LATER ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE. ADVISORIES
AND CAUTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
BE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SEAS TO DECREASE SOME. THERE
ARE SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS MIXED WITH WIND WAVES WHICH MAY KEEP
SEAS AT MODERATE TO ROUGH LEVELS. SEAS SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH MONDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE LATER
ON WEDNESDAY.
SEA FOG...IT APPEARS THAT SEA FOG MAY NOT FORM SINCE WATER TEMPS
HAVE INCREASED AND MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT FOG
MAY NOT FORM.
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...TIDES AT EAGLE POINT AND GALVESTON NORTH
JETTY ARE ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.9 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS LEADING TO TOTAL WATER LEVELS OF AROUND 3 FEET
ABOVE MLLW. HIGH TIDE AT GALVESTON NORTH JETTY THIS EVENING AROUND
6PM CST IS ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE MLLW SO ADDING AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 FEET
WOULD YIELD WATER LEVELS AROUND 3.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW. ONCE AGAIN
THESE LEVELS WOULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO HIGHWAY 87 ALONG BOLIVAR
PENINSULA. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SHOULD THESE
TIDE TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 49 50 46 53 / 50 70 60 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 65 69 57 67 / 30 40 40 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 68 74 64 72 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
934 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SLOW WEAKENING ON BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
WESTERN WASHINGTON CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO BRING A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICALLY WET WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING...WITH THE 12Z PORT HARDY
SOUNDING REGISTERING A 500 MB HEIGHT OF 575 DECAMETERS. IT WILL
TAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C.. IN THE MEANTIME...IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT DRY NE/E FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA...AND THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSIONS.
SO THAT LEAVES AIR STAGNATION AS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WHICH TO
CONTEND. ALREADY THIS MORNING...BOTH MARYSVILLE AND SOUTH TACOMA
WERE IN THE AIR QUALITY CATEGORY OF UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS DUE TO WOOD SMOKE. QUALITATIVELY...THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
LOW-HANGING BROWN HAZE OUT THE WINDOW HERE IN NORTHEAST SEATTLE
THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT
APPEARS TO COME ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MOSTLY LIKELY TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY FOR SMOKE DISPERSION TO IMPROVE.
BY MONDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM MODELS TAKE THE WEAKENED
CENTER OF OUR BLOCKING HIGH EAST INTO ALBERTA. THIS WOULD ALLOW A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AT THE LEAST...THIS
WOULD IMPROVE MIXING AND AIR QUALITY BY REMOVING THE CAP OF WARM
AIR ALOFT AND BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND. AT THE MOST...IT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LITTLE RAIN. REGARDING
RAIN...AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. IT IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE FIRST
SYSTEM TRYING TO BUDGE A BLOCKING HIGH TO FIZZLE AS IT FIGHTS ITS
WAY INTO A DRY AIR MASS...BUT IT MAY ALSO HELP OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
RETURN TO TYPICALLY WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER BEYOND MONDAY. WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER INCREASING POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE.HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BY MONDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH REGARD TO WHEN THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A WEAK ONE WILL
PROBABLY ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN ON MONDAY. THE COLD
AIR MASS OVER THE LOWLANDS SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS ALL
THIS OCCURS. A WETTER SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY...AND WET
WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST...IT WILL MAINTAIN COOL
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MAINTAIN DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MINIMAL FOG OR STRATUS IN THE MORNING. MORNING AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SO ISOLATED FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE.
KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WIND NORTHERLY 4-8 KT. KAM
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE INTERIOR
THOUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...AS AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN INCREASING.
E WINDS AT THE NEAH BAY BUOY HAVE DROPPED TO 10-12 KT THIS MORNING
AND THE LATEST 06Z CANADIAN LAM...00Z ARW...AND 15Z HRRR KEEP THE
WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS THE REST OF TODAY...SO THE SCA FOR THE WEST
ENTRANCE AND COASTAL ZONE 150 WILL BE ENDED.
MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING THEIR TYPICAL WIGGLE-WAGGLE IN THE DAY 3-5
PERIOD AND HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BACK
TO SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AND BEGIN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARRIVING MIDWEEK AND LATER WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGER WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES AT SOME POINT.
THE CURRENT PERIOD OF KING TIDES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TIDES THIS
YEAR. FORTUNATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO KEEP THE TIDAL ANOMALIES MINIMAL. NO
COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST DURING THE HIGH TIDES. KAM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY
AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND
DRIER ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO CENTRAL NJ AND POINTS NORTH, CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY
START TO BREAK UP SOME IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCATIONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE DELMARVA WILL LIKELY HANG
ON TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEPART
THE REGION AS WELL TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THESE TO LINGER ACROSS SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ TO THE
MID 40`S NEAR PHILADELPHIA TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH THE CAA. FURTHER NORTH,
SOME WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40`S IS LIKELY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE
EXACT TIMING OF CLEARING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF LINGER CLOUDS AND RAIN
WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE FORECAST IS TO WARM. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
FASTER GFS MAY MAKE THE FORECAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL. THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER ENOUGH TODAY, SO THE FORECAST IS A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN MET/MAV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ANY FOG. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST DOES SHOW SOME TYPICAL SPOTS RADIATING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS WITH LOWS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20`S NORTH TO THE 30`S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MARINE STRATOCU IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST THAT EXPANDS INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (AND EXPAND NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES) AS WINDS BACK MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM OF
US AND PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP. WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND
EVENING FROM APPROXIMATELY THE DE BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD WEDGE OVERHEAD,
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP OVER
OUR REGION WITH THE W-E ORIENTED FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THRU OUR AREA
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK INTO OUR
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RADIATE TO NEAR FREEZING
MONDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN-MOST ZONES (CARBON-MONROE-SUSSEX
COUNTIES) IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 (WHERE THE POCKET OF COLD
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY HARDEST TO SCOUR OUT). BASED ON
THE LATEST WPC ICE AND SREF TEMP/PTYPE PROBABILITIES, THE CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCRECTION IS ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH ODDS TO
MENTION IN THE HWO BUT AT LEAST COMMUNICATE IT TO THE PUBLIC IN THE
AFD.
THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE STEADIEST AND POSSIBLY MODERATE FOR A
PERIOD SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THRU OUR AREA AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE FROPA, SO IT IS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP ENDS EARLY (GFS SOLUTION) OR
LATE IN THE DAY (ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION) ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH SITS OVER US. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PRESENT WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ILG-MIV-ACY WHILE TERMINALS TO
THE NORTH HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN VFR
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST (ACY/MIV)
IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND INLAND TOWARD THE I-95
TERMINALS THRU THE AFTN. LIGHT ELY WINDS AOB 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EVE. LIGHT
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NW-WD LATE. SOME TERMINALS SUCH AS RDG-
ILG COULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN LIKELY.
LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE
REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AT THE ONSET IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...VFR. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND FOUR FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WILL
LIKELY REMAINING AROUND FOUR FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND FIVE FEET WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS WELL. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS BUT THE
MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGESTS TOP GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW
25 KNOTS. WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FIVE FOOT SEAS ON THE INCREASE WILL
ISSUE A SCA STARTING AT 10 PM THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES WITH SEAS OF 5-7
FT EXPECTED. ELY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AT OUR OFFSHORE BUOYS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT CONTINUE BUT
WITH SEAS 4-6 FT, THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS
PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO SLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN SCA
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL PRODUCE A WLY
WIND NEAR 20 KT BUT STRONG MIXING MAY YIELD GUSTS THAT APPROACH
GALES THRU EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
DELMARVA OVERNIGHT. LIFT IS SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE PA INTO CENTRAL NJ. THIS
BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY NOT COME UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS
DEPICTED ON THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME
NORTH OF THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION TOWARD SUNRISE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO BE IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. A FEW MINOR LOCALIZED ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ON THE 12;30 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THERE SHOULD BE RAINFALL ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP EVERYONE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN DELMARVA WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
AREA. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON MONDAY IN DELMARVA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH LEADS TO A
OVERRUNNING REGIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PRESENT WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR KTTN AND TERMINALS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. KRDG AND KABE SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
CEILING RESTRICTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE ARE NOT OF THE QUESTION
AS WELL THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
ALL TAF SITES IN THE VFR RANGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE AT BOTH ACY AND MIV.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS AS BUOY 44091 REMAINS BOUNCING AROUND 5 FEET. BUOY 44009 AND
44065 ARE BELOW 5 FEET, SO IT WON`T BE LONG BEFORE 44091 FALLS
BELOW AS WELL. SO WE`LL KEEP THE ENDING TIME OF 6 PM FOR NOW. ONCE
THE SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FEET, THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS MAY AGAIN APPROACH OR REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
FOR SEAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LEAD TO WESTERLY WINDS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THOSE WINDS
MEETING THE SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1243 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME
TO TIME ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SITES. DECIDED TO PUT VCSH FOR
EAST COAST SITES BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SITES
AND APF AS PER ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES MODELS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SHRA MOVING IN FROM TIME TO TIME
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. DECIDED TO KEEP VCSH OUT AT THIS TIME AS
THE SHRA ARE FORECAST TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT WHILE LIKELY BECOMING N-NW ALONG ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS PER HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE. ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO OUR NORTH WITH A
CONTINUED LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SUCH,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED TODAY
AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN HOW PRONOUNCED
THE TROUGH WILL BE AND IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GET. GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THU AND STALLS IT OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. EITHER WAY...THERE DOES LOOK
TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /GREGORIA
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE
WIND IS ALREADY SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY NON-EXISTENT TODAY AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE, BUT A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK WITH WEAKENING SPEEDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO SLOWLY DECLINE. HOWEVER,
HAZARDOUS SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF STREAM
THROUGH TOMORROW. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 83 74 84 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 82 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 72 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 66 85 68 85 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1017 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
...Update Aviation Section...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Mesoscale models including the HRRR and RAP13 are all showing an
area of light freezing rain spreading northeast out of western
Oklahoma after midnight. The western part of this area will sweep
through that part of south central Kansas that is already under
a winter weather advisory. Have extended the advisory through the
rest of tonight until 12z Sunday to account for some additional
light ice accumulations which could add up to a few more hundredths
later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Have been watching radar trends over the last few hours across south-
central Kansas. The HRRR and ECMWF show some additional snow showers
possible this afternoon developing on the 850-hPa baroclinic zone. As
a result, have extended the winter weather advisory across south-central
Kansas until 6 pm. There is a chance that this advisory might run a
little long and might need to be canceled earlier if WSR-88D trends
bear this out. Otherwise, much of the area will remain dry. The atmosphere
will remain fairly saturated through the overnight that freezing drizzle
looks fairly likely. Minimums should be in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Southwest Kansas will still remain in a favorable jet streak position
for some light snow showers tomorrow night. In addition to dynamic lift
aloft, there will be a 850-700-hPa baroclinic zone passing through.
Some low level isentropic lift should lead to some snow showers across
the northern zones late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Have
issued a winter weather advisory up north since light snow amounts
(1-3") are possible and people still could be traveling back home
from holiday travels. Current snow amounts may be a tad high, but
still feel that the I70 corridor could become slick again. After
this event, we enter a dry period with dry northerly flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the sfc. There might be some showers in about
a week from now along a front. The superblend pops look fine for
now. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the weekend and
into the upcoming business week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Widespread IFR conditions will continue through the period as the
remnant arctic airmass slowly modifies and low level saturated
flow become increasingly upslope. Freezing drizzle will be
confined to areas of central and south central KS for the most
part. Winds at the surface will remain light at 7 knots or less
through the period. Widespread light winter precipitation will
develop again late tonight as a low slowly deepens across far northeastern
New Mexico.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 32 26 35 / 20 30 60 10
GCK 22 31 25 33 / 10 30 70 10
EHA 22 34 23 36 / 10 30 40 10
LBL 23 34 25 36 / 20 30 40 10
HYS 23 28 26 33 / 20 60 80 50
P28 28 34 28 38 / 60 30 60 20
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
SPLIT FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTINENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE WEATHER TO
BE QUIET AND FAIRLY MILD FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY REMAINING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD END AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IN
FACT...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING SKIES WITH THE WINDS BACKING TO
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
ROUND 0.25 INCH. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +2C...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S OR EVEN SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER MS VLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW...AM TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER
GFS SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. IN
FACT...WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH THE DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA. AS SUCH...WILL TREND TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WILL STILL
BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TUE...EXPECT SOME DRYING TO OCCUR TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HAVE
REDUCED POPS TO CHC ACROSS THAT REGION. WITH THE LOW TRACK MOVING
OVERHEAD...WOULD EXPECT SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST
DUE TO THE CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. AS SUCH...AM THINKING NW
WI AND FAR WEST UPPER MI WILL SEE THE MOST PCPN WITH THIS STORM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
OCCLUDED AND CLOSED OFF NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW. JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE WEST HALF AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE
EXTREMELY WET AND HEAVY. AS FOR THE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND TO THE EAST...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SFC TEMPS...SO IT SEEMS LIKE PRECIP MAY START AS SNOW ACROSS THE
EAST BUT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TUE AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM. DUE TO
THE WET AND HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...COULD SEE SOME TRICKY TRAVEL
ON TUE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST. AS FOR STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONSDAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...AM THINKING THE FAR WEST COULD
SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2 TO 4 INCHES. AN
INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE TUE NIGHT...EXPECT WRAP AROUND PCPN TO
PERSIST ACROSS UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CHANCE POPS WED
ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE VERY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...BY SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SHOCKED TO SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG SW FLOW.
REGARDLESS...THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE N EARLY THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE
E LATER TODAY...STILL EXPECTING AREA OF LO CLDS IN NW ONTARIO/NRN LK
SUP TO IMPACT CMX AND SAW TOWARD SUNRISE AND TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AT THESE
SITES...NOT EXPECTING ANY SGNFT VSBY RESTRICTION. SINCE THE VEERING
FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD...THAT LOCATION IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE
BULK OF THE LO CLDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THERE. THE
LO CLDS AT CMX MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD AS THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO A DOWNSLOPE SSE DIRECTION THERE. THE MORE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO SAW IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BKN MVFR CIGS
THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...THAT COULD START AS A WINTRY
MIX AND END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE DIFFICULT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS RH IN THE 925MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATED
WHILE DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ABOVE 850MB. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING THE SLOW TRANSITION AND CLEARING WITH THE WESTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLEARING FIRST AS SHOWN
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT ON THE NIGHTTIME IR SATELLITE
PRODUCTS. WITH THAT NARROW LAYER OF SATURATED AIR THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INSULATE THE SURFACE JUST SLIGHTLY AND SO I KEPT UP
THE IDEA THAT WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD, OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING IN AND EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST
IS QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 933 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AMOUNT OF CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. IR SATELLITE PICS SHOW
UPSTREAM CLEARING UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS THINKING WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN SURFACE
AND 800MB. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CLEARING JUST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAT IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THERE ARE ALSO SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THAT ARE ADDING TO THE MIX. WITH ALL OF THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE COMPLEX SKY COVER AND WEAK
ADVECTION...BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. THINKING LOW
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. IF MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO ALL VFR BY 9-12Z THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY
VFR OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BTV IMPROVING BY 09Z AND THEN FOLLOWED
LATER BY RUT AND SLK. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS SO EXPECT MPV TO STAY VFR WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500FT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING IN BETWEEN 21-00Z TOMORROW WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN TAFS SITES BUT FOR THE MOMENT HAVE JUST CARRIED A CEILING
OF 3500-4000FT BUILDING IN AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN RUT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...THAT COULD START AS A WINTRY
MIX AND END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE DIFFICULT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS RH IN THE 925MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATED
WHILE DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ABOVE 850MB. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING THE SLOW TRANSITION AND CLEARING WITH THE WESTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLEARING FIRST AS SHOWN
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT ON THE NIGHTTIME IR SATELLITE
PRODUCTS. WITH THAT NARROW LAYER OF SATURATED AIR THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INSULATE THE SURFACE JUST SLIGHTLY AND SO I KEPT UP
THE IDEA THAT WHILE TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD, OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING IN AND EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST
IS QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 933 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS AMOUNT OF CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. IR SATELLITE PICS SHOW
UPSTREAM CLEARING UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS THINKING WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN SURFACE
AND 800MB. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CLEARING JUST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAT IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THERE ARE ALSO SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THAT ARE ADDING TO THE MIX. WITH ALL OF THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE COMPLEX SKY COVER AND WEAK
ADVECTION...BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. THINKING LOW
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. IF MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z
SUNDAY. HAVE NOTED WEAK SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THINKING THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIMITED CLEARING ON
UPSTREAM SATL PICS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY
IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ARE BETWEEN -2C SOUTH TO -6C
NORTH ON SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAIN
TOWNS TO UPPER 30S VALLEYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A CHILLY BUT
MAINLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS
AFTER A CHILLY START. ANOTHER DRY NIGHT EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE LIKELY. DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING PROFILES AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND COLDEST IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/SAINT LAWRENCE AND MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. THE DAY WILL START
OFF BELOW FREEZING...BUT ENOUGH WARMING INDICATED BY AFTERNOON SO
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN FORM OF RAIN...WITH JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE AT ONSET. PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST...AND WEAK
SECONDARY REFLECTION INDICATED ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
30S.
MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKE THEIR EASTWARD INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN PASS
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO ALL VFR BY 9-12Z THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY
VFR OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BTV IMPROVING BY 09Z AND THEN FOLLOWED
LATER BY RUT AND SLK. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS SO EXPECT MPV TO STAY VFR WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500FT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING IN BETWEEN 21-00Z TOMORROW WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN TAFS SITES BUT FOR THE MOMENT HAVE JUST CARRIED A CEILING
OF 3500-4000FT BUILDING IN AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN RUT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1144 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS THE BIG
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG INVERSION WITH A
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER IT REMAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING NOW FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON. EXPECT
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCO
BELOW...
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR SKIES OUT.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...THERE WILL BE
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION.
NAM BUFKIT AND THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE...BUT THIS GUIDANCE IS
SOMETIMES TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE...THE
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS MAY REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER
IS LOW.
THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...SINCE CLOUD COVER WOULD PREVENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S...BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THERE IS ANY
CLEARING. ALSO...IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SPOTS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH MODEST DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOST GUIDANCE
HANGS ONTO AT LEAST SOME LOW MOISTURE...AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME LIGHT QPF. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER LIGHT QPF CAN
SOMETIMES BE A SIGNAL BY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL... ONLY
ABOUT 0.15 INCH PW... KEEP CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE COOL AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE LOWS IN THE 20S... AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TO LAKE ERIE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL
HAVE A RAPIDLY OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEARLY BENEATH IT...AND A
POCKET OF COLD AIR SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PW EXCEEDING AN INCH...WILL PROVIDE
A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR RAINFALL STARTING MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW... WITH AN AMPLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE WARM FRONT /
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. THE BY TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN IMPROVING... THERE
REMAINS ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE
ENSEMBLES / ESPECIALLY THE EC ENSEMBLES/ DEPICT AN INTERESTING BI-
MODAL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING... WITH ABOUT HALF THE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY LIKE THE GFS AND THE
OTHER HALF HOLD IT BACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY LIKE THE OPERATIONAL EC...
WITH FEW ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE GROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING... BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
THEN SETTLE EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CUT-
OFF NATURE OF THIS LOW... THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TAP FROM
HIGHER LATITUDES... AND MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -4 TO -7C IN THE CORE OF THE LOW. THESE MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
48F LAKE SURFACES... HOWEVER... EXPECT MAINLY THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD REALLY SEE LAKE SHOWERS MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICH
TAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE
IT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF IS
DECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH
360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2ND
OR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH PERHAPS ONLY A FEW MARGINAL CHANCES AT PICKING UP
SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 06Z EXPANSIVE MVFR
CIGS...AND AT TIMES IFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF REGION.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH CLEARING EDGING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH. IFR
FLIGHT CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS...WITH MAINLY
MVFR ELSEWHERE.
AS THE SKIES DO CLEAR THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT FORM
LATER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE LOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY...WITH AT TIMES MVFR CIGS NEARING KROC AND KIAG. AFTER THESE
CLOUDS DIMINISH EXPECT THEN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TIER FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. MAINLY MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AND
THEN DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MID WEEK WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE WATERS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
310 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW STARTING TO COME INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR OBS SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER
UT/SOUTHEAST WY. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY BEEN LIFTING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS BUT PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WITH
NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND. WILL WATCH AS IT GOES OVER SOME OF
OUR SOUTHERN AUTOMATED SITES AND PUT IN A FLURRY MENTION IF NEEDED
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 30S. TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL TO OUR WEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS NORTH BUT THE SOUTH WILL STAY IN THE 20S
WITH CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WOBBLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW.
MODELS ALL HAVE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN IA
BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION IN EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CENTER TRACKS AND HOW FAR INTO THE CWA THE
PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS. THE TREND THIS TIME IS FURTHER NORTH WITH
MOST MODELS...AND THE NAM HAS SOME HIGH QPF EVEN NORTH OF FARGO.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH...WITH A PLUME OF FARGO SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO OVER 6 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED ON THE PATH OF HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR FOR NOW. THINK THAT SNOW WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND SO HAVE EARLY MORNING MONDAY
DRY BUT RAMP UP POPS QUICKLY IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND SOME 6 PLUS INCH
AMOUNTS ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT PUT OUT AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND IA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
VARIATIONS IN WHERE EXACTLY THE SFC LOW TRACKS AND THE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP MAKE THINGS UNCERTAIN...BUT STILL THINK THE BEST SHOT
AT SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES SO KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN THAT AREA. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S AT NIGHT AND 30S
DURING THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. NORTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST
ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH WITH PRECIP OVER NORTHERN MB AND
NW ONTARIO. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETS UP FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
LATEST FORECAST FOR TAF SITES HAS MVFR VIS IN KDVL. HRRR MODEL
INDICATING THAT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...HOWEVER...LATEST NAM
NOT FAVORING FOG AS MUCH AS BEFORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITE
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. KGFK SHOULD AVOID FOG TO THE NORTH ALSO...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR...INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE INCREASING INTO. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THUS FAR STILL WAITING FOR FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST. SCALED
BACK ON THE TIMING BUT DID KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
LATEST HRRR NOT AS DIRE WITH THE FOG EITHER.
LOW POPS ARE GOOD TO GO ACROSS THE SOUTH AS DOUBTFUL MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS WINNING THE BATTLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THOSE TRENDS...SO WE NOW HAVE
LOWS OF 0 TO 10 ABOVE F IN MANY PARTS THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS THUS
FAR THIS EVENING HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS DROPPING JUST AS QUICKLY AS
THE TEMPERATURES...THUS DELAYING FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ITS FORMATION AFTER 06 UTC. BASED ON
THE TRENDS IN HRRR SIMULATIONS...WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF FOG
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW IS INDEED WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
ND AND SD BORDER...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS A BIT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLE HRRR GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW OVER
WESTERN SD WOULD APPEAR A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
WOULD HAVE US BELIEVE...BUT IT IS INDEED WEAKENING WITH NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT LIKE MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST SO WE WILL HANG ONTO ONLY
LOW POPS NEAR THE SD BORDER OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS
GOING TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUN FROM 22 UTC SUGGESTS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD /FURTHER SOUTH/
WITH LOWER VISIBILITY THAN ITS PRIOR FEW ITERATIONS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF ANY EXPANSION OF
OUR FOG MENTION IS NECESSARY IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST BRINGING
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEADING
WAVE BRINGING SNOW TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH THAT SAID...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE ACTUALLY DRIED THINGS OUT MORE IN THE LATEST
RUN. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP LOW CHANCES ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN
TIER. TOWARDS THE NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH HIGH-RES
MODELS SUGGEST FOG FORMING OVER THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
SPREADING SOUTHERLY IN AREAS THAT REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TO SEE IF COVERAGE NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LOW STRETCHES TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING KEEPING
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH...CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WHILE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS SNOW CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OR LITTLE SNOW PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
RECEIVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW BY A HUNDRED MILES OR SO. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE LOW
NEAR SIOUX FALLS AND THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS. THIS TRACK FAVORS SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND SREF
PUSH THE LOW FURTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK
WOULD LEAVE MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. UTILIZED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS YIELDED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH AROUND I-94 AND CLOSER TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY. WHILE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94...THESE AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDING KBIS-
KJMS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH WITH IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IMPACTING KISN-KMOT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1201 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS TEND TO FAVOR FOG SOUTH
OF DEVILS LAKE A LITTLE FURTHER. UPDATED FOG EXTENT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO NW GRIGGS COUNTY. FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE GRAND FORKS AREA ACCORDING TO THE HRRR.
HOWEVER...THE NEW NAM MOS GUIDANCE REMOVED MENTION OF FOG. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FOG NORTH AND WEST OF GF.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
FRESHENED UP A FEW FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. CHANGED SKY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. ALL IN ALL...THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON NORTHERN MN FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH. MAY NEED TO EXPAND FOG FROM NORTHERN ND AND
FAR NW MN FURTHER EAST TO BAUDETTE. WILL CONSIDER WITH NEXT
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AFFECTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW SHIELD WILL GET. THERE HAS
BEEN A MODEL TREND OF DELAYING ARRIVAL OF SNOW. MODELS ALSO SEEM
TO BE TRENDING A BIT SOUTH THIS RUN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
WHICH IS FARTHEST NORTH AND THIS RUN AN OUTLIER. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS CONSISTENCY AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT SHOULD
SPREAD BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH HALF HALF OF
THE FA. FARTHER NORTH UNDER SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AND ADDED TO FORECAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF SUNDAY WITH LOBE ROTATING AROUND
UPPER LOW SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME
COOLER SPREADING FROM S-N DURING THE DAY AND MORE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION WITH FAVORED POTENTIAL NOW MORE TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HIGHEST POPS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE ND/SD MN BORDER REGIONS WITH MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY NO HEADLINES
PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
SNOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE SE FA TUESDAY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS...CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY EVENING...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE APPEARS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A MOVE TOWARDS
MORE DOMINANT H5 RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WE CAN EXPECT A SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
TROFFING DIGS DEEPLY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY COULD BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT /MIXED/
PRECIPITATION AS A CUTOFF LOW REFORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
THE H5 TROF AXIS PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
LATEST FORECAST FOR TAF SITES HAS MVFR VIS IN KDVL. HRRR MODEL
INDICATING THAT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE...HOWEVER...LATEST NAM
NOT FAVORING FOG AS MUCH AS BEFORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITE
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. KGFK SHOULD AVOID FOG TO THE NORTH ALSO...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER AT OTHER SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1126 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patches of light rain are crossing the region at this time.
Rain is expected to increase in coverage after 09Z and remain
rather widespread through the day. The rain will begin to diminish
late today. Widespread IFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Patchy areas of light rain continue this evening...and all
reporting sites in the forecast area are now above 32 degrees.
Temps not expected to drop any further through the remainder of
the night as the slow modification of the shallow cold airmass
continues. Precip expanding across NW Texas in response to jet max
and expect this to continue expanding into eastern OK later
tonight. Have raised pops a little across NE OK as HRRR has
consistently developed rain across this area after 06z. Overall
changes to forecast aside from that will be minor.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of rain will continue to moves across the region over the
next 24 hours with widespread IFR conditions. While the rain
has diminished in coverage this evening, an increase in coverage
is expected after 09z...especially in southern areas.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Very slow moderation of the shallow cold airmass in place across
the area will continue to occur over the next 36 to 48 hours. The
process will then hasten by Monday afternoon as winds shift to a
more westerly component. Will cancel the flash flood watch with
this issuance. While additional rainfall is expected over the next
24-36 hours, rainfall rates will not be sufficient to result in
flash flooding. An areal flood warning remains in effect where the
greatest additional rainfall amounts will occur. The northwest
corner of Osage County remains near the freezing line, and this
will likely remain the case for much of the night. There are some
indiciations that just like last night, temperatures may warm a
degree or so late tonight, which is the most likely time period
for measurable rain in that area. Thus, no mention of wintry
precipitation will be carried at this time.
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail most of next
week once this system clears the area. The next storm system will
bring a chance of rain back to the area just beyond the range of
this forecast.
The NAM12 temperatures were all within a degree of observed
readings during the past 24 hours, and will continue to use these
values for the forecast until the winds shift and help to scour
out the shallow cold air Monday.
TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
$$
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
355 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT LYING SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY AND
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. COOL
AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN SLIDE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL
RESULT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ALL WEEK LONG.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE S/SE MOVING TO THE E. LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND AND THEY SHOULD HANG ALL DAY IN THE SOUTH. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS JUST A LITTLE BIT FROM THE NORTH OF WEST...SO THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY NOT WAGGLE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...CURRENT TRAJECTORIES OF THE PLUME OVER THE MIDWEST SEEM
TO BE DRAWING IT TOWARD THE STATE. THUS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY
AROUND ALL DAY IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR WILL BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TODAY BUT THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE PRETTY
EXTENSIVE IN THE N AND UPSTREAM IN NY STATE. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME
LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE HELD DOWN AS THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NE AND THE CLOUDS HANG ON OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING WILL TRY TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PERHAPS ONLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH WILL STAY ABOVE 30F. ON MONDAY...THE
925-850MB WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/EAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE SC MTNS BEFORE SUNSET ON MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
GET THICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT SPREADS N/W UPSLOPE. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME DZ...AND THE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO FREEZE MON NIGHT IF SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR CAN
SEEP INTO THE SOUTH. MAXES MON WILL BE ONLY 40-45F. WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS...THE DIURNAL CHANGE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT WILL
BE LITTLE MORE THAN 5-8F.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND SLIDE TO THE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
RAIN AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIMING FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THE U.S. GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT DRYING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM W-E BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
TAKES UP TO 24 MORE HOURS TO PUSH THAT MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST.
LAKE EFFECT -SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS...AND THE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS
ITSELF TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF
THE PATTERN. HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND
FAIR WEATHER. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE...MOST AREAS IFR.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
SOME.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE RISING
CIGS/CLEARING SKIES ANYTIME BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...A
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/
CIGS AT KUNV AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NORTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA HAS ALREADY CAUSED CIGS
TO RISE AT KIPT LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
PLAY OUT AT KMDT/KLNS WITH MVFR CIGS TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LIFT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOISTURE IS EVER SO SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE JUST SLID SOUTH OF KAOO IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH LIGHT FRONTAL
RAINBANDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. FROM I80 NORTHWARD...THE RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE TO BE EXPECTED IN SPOTS. TEMPS
NEAR THE NY BORDER ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FREEZING.
TAPERING OF SHOWERS IS ON TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
PA. AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AS DRYING OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS ARE
FINALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AFTER
HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S MOST OF THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BRIGHTEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKS SOUTHWARD INTO PA. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC OF LINGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THRU LATE AM...THEN DRY WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 0-4C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L40S OVR THE N MTNS...TO ARND 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STILL JUST A BIT ABV SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
A WEAKENING RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT AS RAIN. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
N MTNS. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS PA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT BRISK WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
-SHSN/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT
-SNSH/FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING OF THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD...BRINGING DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TUMULTUOUS WEATHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE...MOST AREAS IFR.
EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE IMPROVEMENT
SOME.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
PA AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT THE LOWER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS. IN
GENERAL...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING OCNL LGT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT IMPLY PREDOMINANTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS
ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY AT KJST TONIGHT. AT KBFD...A TOUGHER
CALL...AS GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE RISING
CIGS/CLEARING SKIES ANYTIME BTWN 06Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...A
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT HIGHER /MVFR/
CIGS AT KUNV AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KAOO. NORTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA HAS ALREADY CAUSED CIGS
TO RISE AT KIPT LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO
PLAY OUT AT KMDT/KLNS WITH MVFR CIGS TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS BUILD IN.
HOWEVER...MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS STUBBORN LOW CIGS MAY HOLD ON MOST
OF THE DAY AT KAOO/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS.
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY.
WED...EARLY RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS EAST. PM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
THU...AM SHSN/VIS REDUCTIONS POSS KBFD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
333 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
(TODAY THRU TUESDAY)
SFC TROUGH INVERSION STRETCHES FROM SRN LOUISIANA NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE
FEATURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND DEEPLY MOIST
AIRMASS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
NEAR 100 POPS FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVG
AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF
SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WE KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...BUT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IMPULSES UPSTREAM LOOK RATHER WEAK
AND THE MAIN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. POPS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AND IN THE LIKELY
REALM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST
PART. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DO ATTEMPT TO EMPHASIZE SOME PRE
FRONTAL FORCING. BUT...THIS LOOKS A BIT QUESTIONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN IMPACT.
THE FROPA LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUES
MORNING. FORCING LOOKS RATHER STRONG THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL BE SURE TO INCLUDE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH THE CATEGORICAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. OTW...FLOODING COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM AS ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MON NT INTO TUES
COULD APPROACH AN AREAL AVG OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BUT...WITH THE TSTM
POSSIBILITY...HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE THE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE GREATER.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY TUES COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH FFG VALUES. FOR NOW...NO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TUES...THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
(WED THRU SAT)
29/00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER EURO
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE...THUS GOING OVERALL WITH A DRIER FORECAST
WED THRU SAT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
ON WED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE ROCKIES THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID WORK WEEK
TO MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
APPROACHES...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WX PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOCLR
SKIES TO THE REGION THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
WED INTO THU...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SLOW SOUTHWARD CRAWL OF OUR CURRENT COLD FRONT HAS THE FRONT
ALREADY THROUGH KCKV AND JUST NORTH OF KBNA AT ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT GETS INTO THE TERMINAL REGION...CIGS WILL FALL
OFF TO IFR PRETTY QUICKLY...MAYBE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. KCSV
WILL TAKE QUITE AWHILE LONGER BEFORE THEY SEE ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS. ONCE A TERMINAL FALLS TO IFR...DON`T EXPECT ANY
IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 60 51 63 55 59 / 100 90 60 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 55 49 60 51 58 / 100 70 60 100 40
CROSSVILLE 61 53 61 57 61 / 100 100 70 100 80
COLUMBIA 62 50 63 55 60 / 100 100 70 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 63 52 64 57 60 / 100 100 70 100 70
WAVERLY 56 48 60 51 57 / 100 90 60 100 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE ARE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD AUS FROM THE SOUTH AND MAY IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON VIS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND TO LIFR AT AUS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT PINNING DOWN WHERE AND WHEN IS NOT POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME. ANY SHOWERS WILL ONLY LOWER VIS TO MVFR. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY EXCEPT AT DRT WHERE THEY SHOULD GO TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION.
VERY LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
PRECIP WILL BE MORE OF DRIZZLE/MIST. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING
ENHANCEMENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE JET. HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH POP
IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER QPF WILL BE OFF THE NW. AGAIN
HOWEVER THE QPF WILL BE SMALL. NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE AIRMASS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT MOVED IN
YESTERDAY REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LOWEST
3500 FEET. TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO WARM DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THE NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 15
MPH IS ALSO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HILL
COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL ACT AS AN INSULATOR THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY IF NOT SLIGHTLY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS FOR TOMORROW LIKELY NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY AND COOL SUNDAY AS WELL WITH
SOLID CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
AIDS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ENHANCED AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION BUT SOME OF THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION BANDING THAT OCCURS COULD CLIP THE HILL
COUNTRY AND TOWARDS WILLIAMSON COUNTY. NEW RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST WILL
LOCATED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE LLANO...BURNET...AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTY AREAS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM AS A SLOW WARMING TREND
OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THAT WILL AID IN WEAK SOUTH WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BRING BACK
MOISTURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS. THIS WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AND MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR THE TEXAS COAST TO JUST
BARELY INLAND BASED ON MULTI-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THIS
WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS AN ENHANCED 300MB JET STREAK OF 120 KTS
REMAINS OVER NORTH TEXAS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 1.2" BUT
EASTERN/COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR 1.5" AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRONGER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FROM A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MORE THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINT
RECOVERY LOOKS MEAGER AS THE LOW-LVL SOUTH FLOW IS TOO WEAK WITH
HIGHER PWATS AND INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. HAVE OPTED TO ONLY HAVE SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR NOW WITH NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION GIVEN THE SET-UP. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SLOWLY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN COOL AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 42 46 45 60 47 / 70 60 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 46 44 59 47 / 70 60 40 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 46 46 60 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 43 42 58 44 / 70 80 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 57 47 63 48 / 70 40 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 44 42 58 44 / 70 80 40 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 50 46 62 50 / 60 40 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 42 45 45 58 49 / 60 50 30 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 45 49 47 59 50 / 60 50 40 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 49 47 62 51 / 60 50 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 49 47 62 52 / 60 40 20 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
849 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SN WILL MOVE IN BY MID-AFTN AND LAST INTO THE EVE. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER SURROUNDING MT PASSES.
CURRENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL LESSEN BY
18Z BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN AND BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TEMPORARILY...THEN DEGRADE TO MVFR TO IFR ONCE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
EVE AS ISOLATED SNOW AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK MOVES BACK IN. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
655 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SN WILL MOVE IN BY MID-AFTN AND LAST INTO THE EVE. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER SURROUNDING MT PASSES.
CURRENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL LESSEN BY
18Z BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN AND BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TEMPORARILY...THEN DEGRADE TO MVFR TO IFR ONCE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
EVE AS ISOLATED SNOW AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK MOVES BACK IN. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
350 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SN WILL MOVE IN BY MID-AFTN AND LAST INTO THE EVE. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER SURROUNDING MT PASSES.
CURRENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AT TIMES DENSE...WILL LESSEN BY
18Z BUT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN AND BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB WILL BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TEMPORARILY...THEN DEGRADE TO MVFR TO IFR ONCE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
EVE AS ISOLATED SNOW AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK MOVES BACK IN. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND
DRIER ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO CENTRAL NJ AND POINTS NORTH, CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY
START TO BREAK UP SOME IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCATIONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE DELMARVA WILL LIKELY HANG
ON TO CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEPART
THE REGION AS WELL THIS MORNING. POPS WERE RAISED THROUGH MID
MORNING FOR THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE DELMARVA WITH THE
6:30 AM UPDATE. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ TO THE
MID 40`S NEAR PHILADELPHIA TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH THE CAA. FURTHER NORTH,
SOME WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40`S IS LIKELY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE
EXACT TIMING OF CLEARING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF LINGER CLOUDS AND RAIN
WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE FORECAST IS TO WARM. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
FASTER GFS MAY MAKE THE FORECAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO COOL. THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS MAY NOT BE CAPTURING THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER ENOUGH TODAY, SO THE FORECAST IS A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN MET/MAV.WHILE TERMINALS TO
THE NORTH HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH ANY FOG. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST DOES SHOW SOME TYPICAL SPOTS RADIATING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS WITH LOWS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20`S NORTH TO THE 30`S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MARINE STRATOCU IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST THAT EXPANDS INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (AND EXPAND NORTHWARD
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES) AS WINDS BACK MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM
OF US AND PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP. WE MAY EVEN SEE ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND
EVENING FROM APPROXIMATELY THE DE BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CAD WEDGE OVERHEAD,
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING SETUP OVER
OUR REGION WITH THE W-E ORIENTED FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THRU OUR AREA
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK INTO OUR
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RADIATE TO NEAR FREEZING
MONDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN-MOST ZONES (CARBON-MONROE-SUSSEX
COUNTIES) IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 (WHERE THE POCKET OF COLD
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS TYPICALLY HARDEST TO SCOUR OUT). BASED ON
THE LATEST WPC ICE AND SREF TEMP/PTYPE PROBABILITIES, THE CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCRECTION IS ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT...NOT HIGH ENOUGH ODDS TO
MENTION IN THE HWO BUT AT LEAST COMMUNICATE IT TO THE PUBLIC IN THE
AFD.
THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE STEADIEST AND POSSIBLY MODERATE FOR A
PERIOD SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THRU OUR AREA AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE FROPA, SO IT IS UNCLEAR IF PRECIP ENDS EARLY (GFS SOLUTION) OR
LATE IN THE DAY (ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION) ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH SITS OVER US. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PRESENT WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ILG-MIV-ACY. CEILINGS AT KTTN,
KPHL AND KPNE MAY ALTERNATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH 15Z THEN
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN VFR
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST (ACY/MIV)
IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND INLAND TOWARD THE I-95
TERMINALS THRU THE AFTN. LIGHT ELY WINDS AOB 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EVE. LIGHT
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NW-WD LATE. SOME TERMINALS SUCH AS RDG-
ILG COULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK IF STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN LIKELY.
LIGHT ELY WINDS BECOME SLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE
REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AT THE ONSET IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...VFR. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND FOUR FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WILL
LIKELY REMAINING AROUND FOUR FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SEAS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND FIVE FEET WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AS WELL. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS BUT THE
MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGESTS TOP GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW
25 KNOTS. WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FIVE FOOT SEAS ON THE INCREASE WILL
ISSUE A SCA STARTING AT 10 PM THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES WITH SEAS OF 5-7
FT EXPECTED. ELY WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT BUT GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AT OUR OFFSHORE BUOYS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT CONTINUE BUT
WITH SEAS 4-6 FT, THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS
PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO SLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN SCA
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL PRODUCE A WLY
WIND NEAR 20 KT BUT STRONG MIXING MAY YIELD GUSTS THAT APPROACH
GALES THRU EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR-88D LOCATED AT FORT DIX NJ WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30. THE PARTS NEEDED TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE ON
ORDER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
WEAK LOW MOVING NW INTO TN VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN RATHER
STRONG GRADIENT OF POPS THRU TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES HAS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE MORNING TRENDS THE BEST SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
MAINLY BI-SECTING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE
FLUX IN THE EVOLUTION. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN SO
SHOULD JUST BE ON AND OFF LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NO THUNDER
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALSO HAD A MORE CLEAR CUT GRADIENT SO
HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED UP DAYTIME HIGHS ACCORDINGLY TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GA WHILE NORTHERN SECTION
LIMITED TO 60S AND LOW 70S. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TRAVEL ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...A CONSTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
SUPPLY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GA. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND LITTLE CAPE EXPECTED. SO NO THUNDER
HAS BEEN INCLUDED. LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD...WITH POPS DIMINISHING TOWARD CENTRAL. A PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GA MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WARM EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE
DEVELOPS.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS MARKED AS SOME PREVIOUS CYCLES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REMAIN POTENTIALLY VERY WET ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ACTUALLY
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SWEEPS A
QUICK OPEN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BOTH MODELS KEEP A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
BUT THE GFS PULLS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE REGION FAIRLY DRY. FOR NOW I HAVE
CHOSEN TO NOT STRAY FROM THE BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING THAT FAVORS THE
DRIER ECMWF TRENDS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
20
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTH GA. LATEST QPF FORECAST GIVES TOTALS OF ABOUT 3.00 TO 4.00
INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA FROM ROME TO HELEN AND NORTH.
LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL GA. THERE DOES EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME THAT WE WILL SEE THOSE AMOUNTS...OR IF THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS. SO NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.
41
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 640 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD JUST AHEAD OF THE RAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR CEILINGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 54 64 53 / 40 60 60 40
ATLANTA 71 57 69 55 / 40 50 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 62 54 60 51 / 80 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 66 56 68 54 / 60 70 70 50
COLUMBUS 77 56 74 57 / 10 10 20 10
GAINESVILLE 66 55 62 52 / 60 70 70 50
MACON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 10 20
ROME 65 56 68 55 / 80 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 72 55 71 54 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 75 54 75 57 / 5 5 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY WILL BRING THE 500MB LOW THAT HAD SET UP SHOP OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NE...WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER SW IA. AS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
MORE STACKED...SET UP ACROSS S MN/N IA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPPER MI INITIALLY...RESULTING IN
MORE OF A MIX OR MORE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW OVER THE
AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30F
W...WHILE IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND E ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE E BY 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME AND THE E-ESE SFC WINDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO FAST. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO/EHWO FOR MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY SPS FOR NOW.
THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING OVER WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI TO S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL FINALLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...AND COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHEN THE PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER IT WILL BE
THE WET SLUSHY VARIETY...WITH RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WARMER AIR
ABLE TO MOVE IN...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5IN
OR LESS /HIGHEST FAR W/. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FAR WEST COULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2
TO 4 INCHES. AN INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. IT/S
INTERESTING EVENT TO COMPARE THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ON
BUFKIT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FCST TREND IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 00-06Z GFS IS ON THE QUICKER END OF THE SPECTRUM OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS STILL OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...A CHANGEABLE FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LOW AND IT/S LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT E BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THIS N
STREAM WAVE SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING. SO OVERALL...THE
TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS FROM N TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY...EXEPCT MVFR
CLOUDS TO LINGER AT CMX AND SAW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY -FZDZ. SINCE THE
VEERING FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD...THAT LOCATION IS LIKELY TO AVOID
THE BULK OF THE LOW CLDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THERE.
THE LO CLDS AT CMX MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD AS
THE LLVL FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO A DOWNSLOPE SSE DIRECTION THERE. AS
THE WINDS BECOME SRLY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO DEPART SAW
BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY WILL BRING THE 500MB LOW THAT HAD SET UP SHOP OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NE...WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER SW IA. AS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
MORE STACKED...SET UP ACROSS S MN/N IA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPPER MI INITIALLY...RESULTING IN
MORE OF A MIX OR MORE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW OVER THE
AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30F
W...WHILE IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND E ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE E BY 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME AND THE E-ESE SFC WINDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO FAST. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO/EHWO FOR MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY SPS FOR NOW.
THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING OVER WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI TO S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL FINALLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...AND COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHEN THE PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER IT WILL BE
THE WET SLUSHY VARIETY...WITH RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WARMER AIR
ABLE TO MOVE IN...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5IN
OR LESS /HIGHEST FAR W/. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FAR WEST COULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2
TO 4 INCHES. AN INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. IT/S
INTERESTING EVENT TO COMPARE THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ON
BUFKIT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FCST TREND IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 00-06Z GFS IS ON THE QUICKER END OF THE SPECTRUM OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS STILL OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...A CHANGEABLE FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LOW AND IT/S LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT E BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THIS N
STREAM WAVE SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING. SO OVERALL...THE
TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AS THE LLVL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE N EARLY THIS MRNG AND THEN TO THE
E LATER TODAY...STILL EXPECTING AREA OF LO CLDS IN NW ONTARIO/NRN LK
SUP TO IMPACT CMX AND SAW TOWARD SUNRISE AND TO BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AT THESE
SITES...NOT EXPECTING ANY SGNFT VSBY RESTRICTION. SINCE THE VEERING
FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE INTO IWD...THAT LOCATION IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE
BULK OF THE LO CLDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THERE. THE
LO CLDS AT CMX MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD AS THE
LLVL FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO A DOWNSLOPE SSE DIRECTION THERE. THE MORE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO SAW IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A BKN MVFR CIGS
THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
933 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK EXPECT
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX SWITCHING
TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 928 AM EST SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CURRENT
VIS SATL PICTURE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH
CLEARING OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST VT EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE NORTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VT. A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE CLOUDS...WITH WARMEST
VALUES SOUTH AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL MANY OF THE CONCEPTS ARE COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS AND CONDITIONS.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY INCLUDE
INCREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. 700MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST AND AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW COULD DEVELOP.
NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BLOCKED
FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB IS POSSIBLE FOR
SNOW TO FALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. SNOW...IF IT DOES FALL WOULD
ONLY BE LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT AND REALLY ONLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE HOLDING CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS A THIN LAYER OF SATURATED AIR BETWEEN
1000-900MB WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THIS
STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, A SECOND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS I CLEARED OUT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NEW YORK VERMONT AND CANADA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH THE TYPICAL
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WARMING TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DOWN
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO AS WE TURN TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -7C TO
-10C. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH SPOTTY CLOUD COVER OVER WILL LEAD TO
A LARGE RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT TO THE LOW
TEENS OR EVEN NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURE COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO DROP TO THE LOW TEENS WITH THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS COOLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENTLY SLK IS UNDER IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. BASED ON FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL THIS BANK OF
SATURATED AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SO
I`VE KEPT MENTION OF IFR AT SLK THROUGH 15Z GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR. THERE IS A CLEARING LINE ON THE NIGHT IR SATELLITE WHERE MSS
HAS JUST STARTED TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD CEILING
SO IS POSSIBLE SLK COULD BOUNCE UP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AS A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM CANADA AND LEAD TO DECREASED CEILINGS AGAIN. ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
TAFS SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. AT RUT, THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO ERODE WITH DAYBREAK AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH FEW
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
914 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN TOWARD NY AND PA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRAPPED UNDER A
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE POCONOS), SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE, BY FAR, THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFIGURATION DESCRIBED ABOVE,
WITH MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC/DRY, WITH REGARDS TO SKY COVER. USING THE NAM AND HRRR
AS A GUIDE, WE MAY SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, YIELDING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE FOR
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER HAND, AS MIXING/ASSOCIATED CLEARING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED UNDER THE ABOVE REFERENCED CAPPING INVERSION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL BE CHILLY WHERE
SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S), WITH LOW-MID 40S
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
AS FAR AS THIS EVENING IS CONCERNED, FOR NOW, WE BLENDED TODAY`S
SKY COVER GRIDS IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS
STRATEGY WOULD YIELD AN EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC, PENDING
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH USEFUL GUIDANCE REGARDING TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOS PRODUCTS / SUPERBLEND ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM REALISTIC.
WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WOUND UP UL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PULL RAIN INTO OUR FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER PRECIP ONSET MONDAY NIGHT,
AND WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DELAYED
THE TIMING. ONCE THE RAIN DOES SPREAD IN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WE INTRODUCE HIGH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS INTO THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY AS
SFC OCCLUSION PASSES THROUGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE FAIR AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
130 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RECENT PREVIOUS RUNS, YIELDING A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, EASTWARD TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED-THU. THEREAFTER, HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S./SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, AS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS SHOWERY, AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL COMPLEX, TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY MAY FEATURE
A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S). FRI-SAT LOOK DRY,
FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL, FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND BASED ON NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WEAK NW FLOW
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AT KRME/KSYR THEN SCATTER OUT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS KAVP WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN.
THU...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK EXPECT
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX SWITCHING
TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EST SUNDAY...CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY INCLUDE INCREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. 700MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST AND AS
THE MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW COULD
DEVELOP. NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE BLOCKED FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB IS
POSSIBLE FOR SNOW TO FALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. SNOW...IF
IT DOES FALL WOULD ONLY BE LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT AND REALLY ONLY ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE
HOLDING CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS A THIN LAYER OF SATURATED AIR BETWEEN
1000-900MB WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THIS
STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, A SECOND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS I CLEARED OUT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NEW YORK VERMONT AND CANADA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH THE TYPICAL
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WARMING TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DOWN
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO AS WE TURN TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -7C TO
-10C. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH SPOTTY CLOUD COVER OVER WILL LEAD TO
A LARGE RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT TO THE LOW
TEENS OR EVEN NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURE COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO DROP TO THE LOW TEENS WITH THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS COOLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENTLY SLK IS UNDER IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. BASED ON FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL THIS BANK OF
SATURATED AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SO
I`VE KEPT MENTION OF IFR AT SLK THROUGH 15Z GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR. THERE IS A CLEARING LINE ON THE NIGHT IR SATELLITE WHERE MSS
HAS JUST STARTED TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD CEILING
SO IS POSSIBLE SLK COULD BOUNCE UP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AS A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM CANADA AND LEAD TO DECREASED CEILINGS AGAIN. ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
TAFS SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. AT RUT, THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO ERODE WITH DAYBREAK AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH FEW
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
954 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED CLOUDS FOR TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO START AND BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG INVERSION THAT WOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATUS DECK. THAT SAID THERE IS CLEARING TAKING
PLACE ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF HIGH
RH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY PUSH OF AIR BRINGING IN MORE DRYING SO AM THINKING
THERE WILL INCREASING BREAKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
7AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE NUMEROUS TIMING AND POP TYPE CHANGES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT ON.
ORIGINAL...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE WERE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KMFD TO KCLE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR KMFD AND SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME IFR
CEILINGS. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY SLOW THIS TRANSITION WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MIXING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BETTER SUPPORT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PREVALENT GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THIS AREA CLOUDY AS WELL.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH. GENERALLY WENT ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL HANG ON TO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER THE LOWER END
THREAT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EARLY HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S. ON WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CAA AND WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE FA. ONCE AGAIN
THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE H5 LOW AND MORE DEVELOPED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND. ACTUALLY PREFER THIS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON
WEDNESDAY...RANDING IN THE 40S.
LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS STARTED TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALLOWING IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CIGS REMAIN. RAP LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING MOST SITES TO GO VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD ALSO BE COMING TO AN END
EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPGLIDE TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE.
THIS EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR QUICKLY
STARTING TO MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THE NAM IS ALSO
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS
TIME (GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS). AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HIGH
RES MODELS ARE THEN SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS A
GENERAL SPLIT BETWEEN HOLDING THE RAIN OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGING AN INITIAL BAND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE WERE MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KMFD TO KCLE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR KMFD AND SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME IFR
CEILINGS. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY SLOW THIS TRANSITION WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MIXING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
557 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN FILLING IN OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA UP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS
PCPN IS ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE PCPN THAT HAS FILLED IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS.
AT ANY RATE...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PCPN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS OUR
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD
MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL HANG ON TO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER THE LOWER END
THREAT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EARLY HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 30S. ON WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CAA AND WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL WORK INTO THE FA. ONCE AGAIN
THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE H5 LOW AND MORE DEVELOPED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND. ACTUALLY PREFER THIS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON
WEDNESDAY...RANDING IN THE 40S.
LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS STARTED TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALLOWING IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CIGS REMAIN. RAP LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS SHOW THIS DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING MOST SITES TO GO VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD ALSO BE COMING TO AN END
EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPGLIDE TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE.
THIS EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR QUICKLY
STARTING TO MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THE NAM IS ALSO
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS
TIME (GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS). AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HIGH
RES MODELS ARE THEN SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS A
GENERAL SPLIT BETWEEN HOLDING THE RAIN OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGING AN INITIAL BAND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
601 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(TODAY THRU TUESDAY)
SFC TROUGH INVERSION STRETCHES FROM SRN LOUISIANA NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE
FEATURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND DEEPLY MOIST
AIR MASS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
NEAR 100 POPS FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVG
AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF
SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WE KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...BUT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IMPULSES UPSTREAM LOOK RATHER WEAK
AND THE MAIN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. POPS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AND IN THE LIKELY
REALM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST
PART. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DO ATTEMPT TO EMPHASIZE SOME PRE
FRONTAL FORCING. BUT...THIS LOOKS A BIT QUESTIONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN IMPACT.
THE FROPA LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUES
MORNING. FORCING LOOKS RATHER STRONG THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL BE SURE TO INCLUDE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH THE CATEGORICAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. OTW...FLOODING COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM AS ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MON NT INTO TUES
COULD APPROACH AN AREAL AVG OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BUT...WITH THE TSTM
POSSIBILITY...HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE THE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE GREATER.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY TUES COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH FFG VALUES. FOR NOW...NO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TUES...THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
(WED THRU SAT)
29/00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER EURO
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE...THUS GOING OVERALL WITH A DRIER FORECAST
WED THRU SAT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
ON WED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE ROCKIES THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID WORK WEEK
TO MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
APPROACHES...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WX PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOCLR
SKIES TO THE REGION THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
WED INTO THU...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 30/12Z PER ACTUAL VSBY AND CEILING FLUCTUATIONS.
PER LATEST HRRR MODEL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE APPROACHING 29/12Z
COULD TRANSITION TO A VCSH EVENT AFTER 29/15Z AS MODEL SHOWING SOME DRYING
POTENTIALLY OCCURING ACROSS THE MID STATE BEFORE YET ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO MID STATE 29/20Z-30/12Z. WITH SOME QUESTION WHETHER
THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT...WILL ADDRESS POSSIBLITY WITH VFR VSBYS/CAT LIGHT
SHWRS. OTHERWISE...AFTER 29/20Z...W TO E...A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM MAINLY
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS REGION PRODUCING ADDITIONAL AT LEAST LIGHT SHWRS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SFC WINDS...AND DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT YOU ARE ON...LIGHT
N WINDS CKV/BNA TO SE CSV EXPECTED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........31
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
222 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE UPR LOW WILL BE OVER WY TONIGHT WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY COMING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE CONTDVD
FIRST...AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING SO WL ADD
THAT TO THE FORECAST.
THE HRRR SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVR THE ERN
MTNS...I-25 CORRIDOR...THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND LOOKING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THE NAM GENERALLY SHOWS 2-3
INCHES ACROSS TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES...AND ACROSS THE FAR
SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH 3-5 INCHES OVR MTN AREAS AND AROUND 1
INCH OVR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM KCOS AND SOUTHWARD. THE GFS
IS SIMILAR BUT DOES NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH OVR THE MTNS AND OVER THE
FAR SERN PLAINS IT SHOWS ABOUT 2-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. IF BANDS DO SET
UP...AREA UNDER THE BANDS COULD GET A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN
LOCATIONS WITHOUT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST AREAS.
MON MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVR THE MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS
BY AFTERNOON. ALSO...AS WESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE UPR
TROF...THE LOW LEVEL MSTR/CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT AND THE
PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...WARMER WEEK AHEAD...
A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL GIVE US MORE SUN AND WARMER WX TO START THE
METEOROLOGIC WINTER OFF.
A FEW LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS MON NIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING A FEW FLURRIES AND INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE
MTS TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WED-
THU...THEN POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND ON HOW STRONG TO EXPECT THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK PROBABLY THAT
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
PERIOD...SO HAVE RAISED ENSEMBLE-BASED POPS SOMEWHAT SO THAT POPS
ARE AT LEAST CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGIC AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MON
MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS. SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ON MON THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR THRU THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
IR SATELLITE INDICATES ENHANCING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SNOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT. RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AGAIN THIS EVENING...A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY`S SNOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS AND
OBSERVATIONS TO PINPOINT THE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW FOR THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE QUASI-STATIONARY AND BROAD BAND OF SNOW WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE VICINITY OF NUCLA TO CRAIG BEGAN TO SHRINK EARLY THIS MORNING
AS MODELS HAD PREDICTED. SNOWFALL HAD LARGELY ENDED OVER THE
GRAND VALLEY...ROAN PLATEAU AND CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN. WHILE
SNOW LINGERED OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...THE GRAND MESA...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS ITS INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES...EXPECT LINGERING SNOWFALL TO BECOME MORE
LOCALIZED AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THEREFORE
...REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT PROVIDED SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT
WILL LIFT INTO WYOMING TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CENTER THAT
BROUGHT THE ROUND OF SNOW TO WESTERN CO AND NORTHEAST UT FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS MADE ITS WAY BACK TO THE UT/NV BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ONE FINAL RUN THROUGH ERN UT/WRN CO TONIGHT WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/VORTICITY LOBE HANGS OUT IN WYOMING AND
WAITS FOR A FINAL PASS OVER CO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING INCREASES AGAIN BY MIDDAY OVER ERN UT AND THEN OVER WRN CO
THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED THIS PAST NIGHT...MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOT AS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE QG
FORCING SO DO NOT EXPECT AS ROBUST COVERAGE OF SNOW...EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PARTS OF ERN UT/WRN CO.
THERE MAY BE A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FOR ADJACENT VALLEYS...
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. SEVERAL
INCHES LIKELY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 DAYS...DETAILS OF EACH SURGE OF FORCING WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED CLOSER TO THE APPROACH OF EACH WAVE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FINALLY TURNS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY STRONG...SO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED WEST TO
NORTHWEST FACING HIGH COUNTRY REGIONS ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 3 TO 8 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW FINALLY DWINDLES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF SNOW FROM THANKSGIVING
INTO THE EARLY PART OF WEEK SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...LOOK FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW TO
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS A RIDGE OVER
THE AREA AT MIDWEEK. MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON PROPAGATION OF THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE GFS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE ABANDONED CUTTING OFF A
CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS SOLUTION...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ARRIVES FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY. GIVEN BOTH A LACK OF TEMPORAL
CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION IS
POOR. THEREFORE...HELD OFF MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AND LIMITED POPS TO THE LOWER END OF THE CHANCE
SCALE.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING...DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS WILL SEND ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION TODAY. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENHANCE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
WILL IMPACT KTEX...KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR FOR HOURS AT A TIME. IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
SITES CLEARING BY MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
AT MANY SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1027 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
UPDATE FOR CANCELLATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO COUNTY.
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER UT AND WY
EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE E PLAINS. DENSE FOG WAS SPREADING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS OF 330 AM AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MORE DENSE FOG
HAD DIMINISHED. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE BEING REPORTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
TO THE NORTHEAST UP INTO WY...WITH A ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
WHAT WILL PROMPT PCPN AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINING MTS AND E PLAINS THIS AFTN AND
EVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SPOTTY PCPN ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN THE HRRR HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SO INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY SPARSE PCPN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PCPN COVERAGE STARTS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST BY MID-AFTN...THEN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVE AS THE PCPN
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE E-SE. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...ENDING AT 12Z MON...COULD BE 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND UP TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
SO...THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A DENSE FOG ADV FOR EL PASO COUNTY
EVEN THOUGH REPORTS OF DENSE FOG ARE STARTING TO DRY UP. THE ADV
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...AS WILL BE MENTION
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE FAR E PLAINS...ROUGHLY
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE THE SOUNDING SHOWS
FAVORABLE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMP READINGS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP TO
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
...SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS...
AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IN WHICH THE MAX TEMPS HAVE NOT GONE
ABOVE FREEZING...A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO NW
COLORADO AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SNOW TO OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C
MTNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 32F
MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS. SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN
ACROSS THE MTNS SO I ANTICIPATE DRY WX REGION-WIDE ON THIS DAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S MOST OF
THE PLAINS. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PUEBLO REGION
WITH U40S POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THIS DAY. DRY WX IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M40S TO L50S OVER THE PLAINS
AND 30S AND 40S VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS NEXT PACIFIC WX SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE THE CALIF COAST. WX SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S
VALLEYS. DRY WX IS ANTICIPATED REGION WIDE.
FRIDAY...
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SIMULATIONS SHOW DRY WX
CONTINUING OVER THE FCST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. SIMULATIONS ARE NOW
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS ON THIS DAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EC IS STRONGER WITH THE
TROUGH THEN GFS. GFS IS MAINLY DRY WHILE EC SHOWS LIGHT QPF OVER
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. BOTH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SHOW A COOL
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SAT MORNING AND THIS WILL
COOL THE MAX TEMPS DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2015
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS WL CONTINUE AT KCOS AND KPUB INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES WL ALSO CONTINUE AT KCOS AND
KPUB...BUT THIS EVENING THERE WL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS A WX DISTURBANCE MOVES ACRS THE AREA. IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEING
DISSIPATING.
KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1257 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS TO THE NORTH HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED
THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WIND TO RELAX SOME ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. ALSO, DRY AIR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE, KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY. THERE HAVE BEEN, AND STILL ARE, A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, THEY ARE FAST
MOVING, LIGHT, AND FALLING APART AS THEY APPROACH THE SHORE. SO,
NO MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, AS THERE IS NO
EXPECTED IMPACT FOR THE AIRPORTS. SO, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER TONIGHT. THEY WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
UPDATE...
SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, OFF THE MIAMI COAST. THEY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THEREFORE, CANCELLED THE SCA FOR A
PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR NOW.
ALSO, WIND STREAMLINES ALOFT ARE STILL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION AT
ABOUT 850MB AND DRY AIR FROM 850MB UP. PWATS ARE ONLY .9 INCHES.
SO, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT THIS FOR THE MOST PART. IT
DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RADAR, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS VERY SPARES AND LIGHT
IN NATURE. SO, POSSIBLY AN OFF CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER FROM
MIAMI SOUTH, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY, JUST A FEW SPRINKLES, IF THAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.
STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DEFINITELY NOT AS STRONG AS LATE LAST WEEK.
RADAR IS QUIETER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST AT TIMES WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MORE TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. INTERIOR AND GULF COAST REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED
YESTERDAY AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES, WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALSO MOVING EASTWARDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN THE PREVAILING FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
EAST COAST, WITH CHANCES STARTING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AS THE VEERING FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE A GULF COAST BREEZE. SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE
GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE FASTER OF THE TWO. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF, IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP, IT LOOKS
LIKE A WET FEW DAYS WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA LATE WEEK. SOME COOLING WITH THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS FOR A FEW STORMS THURS-FRI, BUT WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MARINE...BUOY 41114 OFF FT PIERCE STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL
7FT SEAS SO LIKELY SOME STILL FILTERING INTO THE GULF STREAM OFF
AT LEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY. THOUGH SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER OFF
BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR
18-20KTS SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF DOWNWARD TRENDS IN SEAS AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER,
THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLIER. GULF BOATING
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH CONTINUING NE WINDS 10-15KTS
AND SEAS 1-3FT.
GRADIENT COLLAPSES INTO MIDWEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN US MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY 5-10KTS BY TUESDAY AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR GULF
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING DIRECTION AROUND TO THE WEST. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2FT OR LESS FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 83 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 74 83 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 72 82 75 84 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 67 85 69 85 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1122 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, OFF THE MIAMI COAST. THEY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND
7 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THEREFORE, CANCELLED THE SCA FOR A
PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE CWA FOR NOW.
ALSO, WIND STREAMLINES ALOFT ARE STILL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION AT
ABOUT 850MB AND DRY AIR FROM 850MB UP. PWATS ARE ONLY .9 INCHES.
SO, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY OVER
THE MAINLAND. THE HRRR DOES SUPPORT THIS FOR THE MOST PART. IT
DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RADAR, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS VERY SPARES AND LIGHT
IN NATURE. SO, POSSIBLY AN OFF CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT SHOWER FROM
MIAMI SOUTH, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY, JUST A FEW SPRINKLES, IF THAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY, FAST MOVING SHRA MOVING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SITES. DECIDED TO
KEEP VCSH OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR EAST COAST SITES AS THEY WILL BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACTS. LOW PROB OF
BRIEF MVFR, THAT`S IT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT
AT ALL SITES WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AND SUBSIDING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.
STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DEFINITELY NOT AS STRONG AS LATE LAST WEEK.
RADAR IS QUIETER THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST AT TIMES WITH PERHAPS
A FEW MORE TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. INTERIOR AND GULF COAST REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS GENERATED RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS REPORTED
YESTERDAY AT SOUTH BEACH ALONG WITH SEVERAL RESCUES. THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES, WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY
BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALSO MOVING EASTWARDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN THE PREVAILING FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
EAST COAST, WITH CHANCES STARTING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AS THE VEERING FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE A GULF COAST BREEZE. SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE
GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE FASTER OF THE TWO. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF, IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP, IT LOOKS
LIKE A WET FEW DAYS WHILE THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA LATE WEEK. SOME COOLING WITH THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS FOR A FEW STORMS THURS-FRI, BUT WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONT`S PUSH SOUTH IS HIGH.
CERTAINLY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR IS IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MARINE...BUOY 41114 OFF FT PIERCE STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL
7FT SEAS SO LIKELY SOME STILL FILTERING INTO THE GULF STREAM OFF
AT LEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY. THOUGH SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER OFF
BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR
18-20KTS SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF DOWNWARD TRENDS IN SEAS AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER,
THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLIER. GULF BOATING
CONDITIONS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH CONTINUING NE WINDS 10-15KTS
AND SEAS 1-3FT.
GRADIENT COLLAPSES INTO MIDWEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN US MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY 5-10KTS BY TUESDAY AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR GULF
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEARSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING DIRECTION AROUND TO THE WEST. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2FT OR LESS FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 74 83 75 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 72 81 74 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 72 82 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 83 67 85 69 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
UPDATE...
WEAK LOW MOVING NW INTO TN VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN RATHER
STRONG GRADIENT OF POPS THRU TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR AND
WRF-ARW HI-RES HAS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE MORNING TRENDS THE BEST SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
MAINLY BI-SECTING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE
FLUX IN THE EVOLUTION. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN SO
SHOULD JUST BE ON AND OFF LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NO THUNDER
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS ALSO HAD A MORE CLEAR CUT GRADIENT SO
HAS ALLOWED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED UP DAYTIME HIGHS ACCORDINGLY TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GA WHILE NORTHERN SECTION
LIMITED TO 60S AND LOW 70S. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TRAVEL ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...A CONSTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST MOISTURE
SUPPLY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GA. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND LITTLE CAPE EXPECTED. SO NO THUNDER
HAS BEEN INCLUDED. LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD...WITH POPS DIMINISHING TOWARD CENTRAL. A PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GA MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WARM EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.
HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE
DEVELOPS.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS MARKED AS SOME PREVIOUS CYCLES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REMAIN POTENTIALLY VERY WET ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ACTUALLY
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SWEEPS A
QUICK OPEN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BOTH MODELS KEEP A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
BUT THE GFS PULLS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE REGION FAIRLY DRY. FOR NOW I HAVE
CHOSEN TO NOT STRAY FROM THE BLEND WE HAVE BEEN USING THAT FAVORS THE
DRIER ECMWF TRENDS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
20
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTH GA. LATEST QPF FORECAST GIVES TOTALS OF ABOUT 3.00 TO 4.00
INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA FROM ROME TO HELEN AND NORTH.
LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL GA. THERE DOES EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME THAT WE WILL SEE THOSE AMOUNTS...OR IF THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD
OUT LONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS. SO NO FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS IN 6-8 KFT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN SITES. GRADIENT OF BEST -RA CHANCES FLIRTS
WITH NORTHERN SITES AS WELL THOUGH MAY STAY NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED
AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUPS AND OVERNIGHT PREDOMINANT MENTION BUT MAY
END UP SHIFTING CHANCES EVEN MORE NORTH WITH LATER UPDATES.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIG POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COULD HAVE MVFR VSBYS WITH AREAS OF PRECIP TOO. WINDS
INITIALLY SW FOR MOST SITES BECOMING LIGHT SSE NEAR KATL FOR
OVERNIGHT AND CALM FOR KAHN AND SOUTHERN SITES. MAY WAIVER FROM SW
TO SE ON MONDAY...THOUGH KAHN SHOULD HAVE BEST BET TO STAY SE FOR
MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR NORTHERN SITES AND MONDAY WIND DIRECTION
FOR KATL.
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIGS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 54 64 53 / 40 60 60 40
ATLANTA 71 57 69 55 / 40 50 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 62 54 60 51 / 80 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 66 56 68 54 / 60 70 70 50
COLUMBUS 77 56 74 57 / 10 10 20 10
GAINESVILLE 66 55 62 52 / 60 70 70 50
MACON 76 53 74 55 / 10 10 10 20
ROME 65 56 68 55 / 80 80 80 50
PEACHTREE CITY 72 55 71 54 / 30 40 40 30
VIDALIA 75 54 75 57 / 5 5 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
246 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over UT cut off from the
mean westerlies with a vort max rotating around the southwest quad
of the upper low. A fetch of mid level moisture continues to feed
into the central plains within southwest flow, although it is
shifted a little further east. At the surface, a broad area of high
pressure remains over the region. Current trends show the surface
high weakening this morning. Temps have effectively been steady with
overcast skies an neutral temperature advection.
The weather will get worse for north central and parts of northeast
KS before getting better. Models continue to show large scale
forcing overspreading the forecast area as the vort max over Las
Vegas lifts through the central plains late tonight. Large scale
assent is progged to overspread the area leading to widespread
precip overnight and Monday morning. Unfortunately the cold air at
the surface is likely to remain right about where it is. Models seem
to gradually be coming into agreement with the thermal profiles,
although the GFS continues to be the warmer solution while the HRRR
and RAP tend to keep the freezing line about where it is now. From a
big picture view, temps will be steady through the night. However
from a perspective of the precip type forecast, where the freezing
line sets up will have a major impact. The forecast tends to regard
the GFS as a slightly warm outlier which has verified to warm
recently. With this in mind think an axis of freezing rain from
Abilene through Marysville is probable. Models are generating
between a third and a half inch of QPF with the system overnight.
With temps expected to be right at or a degree or two colder than
freezing, think significant ice accumulations are possible and I
have a quarter to a third of an inch within that corridor. The model
forecast soundings also show a small window across north central KS
where there is ice in the cloud and a thermal profile hovering
around freezing. This could allow for some minor accumulations of
snow from Concordia to Washington and northwest. At this point it
looks like there could be around an inch of snow just west of the
axis if ice accumulations. From Emporia to Topeka and areas east,
temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing through the
night with precip remaining all rain. I am relatively confident in
this scenario happening, but there is a higher than normal risk in
being off on the location depending on where freezing temps set up.
Will issue a warning for the areas most likely to see the damaging
ice accumulations and have an advisory in the remaining north
central counties for a mix of freezing rain and snow.
Models are still on track in lifting the forcing north of the area
during the afternoon. Therefore precip should taper off during the
day. As the surface low lifts north, a Pacific cold front sweeps
through shifting winds to the west with weak cold air advection
occurring. Since there should not be a lot of insolation, afternoon
highs Monday are not anticipated to be much more than 5 or 10
degrees warmer than the morning temps.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Tomorrow night the mid/upper level low pressure center is forecast
to lift northeastward over the upper Midwest. There is the potential
for a shortwave rotating around the main mid level low to pass
over northeast KS during the day Tuesday. Models are indicating
fairly light precip is possible near the NE state line in the form
of rain or snow. After that there is a trend of quiet weather going
through next weekend. This current system will push the moisture well
into the gulf for several days as a reinforcing trough drops down
from western Canada. Surface high pressure gradually migrates
across the central US with temperatures warming into the 40s and
50s by the end of the week. Towards the end of the weekend a mid
level low pressure digs over the southern Rockies and eventually
the plains. This system will have some return flow ahead of it
although the moisture appears limited for now. This system has a
better chance of producing mostly rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
IFR continues will prevail through the period. Think temps will
remain just above freezing at TOP and FOE with MHK potentially
hovering a degree on either side of freezing. Stronger forcing
overnight is expected to lead to widespread precip and LIFR CIGS
with the heavier precip.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>011-020>023-034>038-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
120 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
...updated short and long...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Main attention was to the system moving through tonight. An upper level
trof will swing out from the central Rockies and out across the Central
Plains. The 400-hPa pv anomaly will move basically right over the forecast
area with resultant QG forcing increasing. A band is indicated by the
ARW to develop across west-central Kansas. The HRRR and 4 km nam show
more activity across south-central Kansas. Precip type looks to be
mainly snow across west-central Kansas and mixed precip type across
south-central Kansas. Did expand the advisory south as some ice accumulation
is possible with the largest amounts across Pratt, Barber, and Stafford
counties. The "heavy" snow fall axis looks to extend from Syracuse to
Hays... up to 3".
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
The system will eject by 18Z tomorrow with pops rapidly decreasing as
isentropic downglide develops in the wake of the synoptic trof. The
rest of the forecast is primarily dry. The superblend does crank out
some slight pops next weekend. Left the superblend solution alone since
attention was geared to the short term domain. The overall extended
does feature moderating temperatures and lack of any significant trofs
until next weekend, potentially.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Poor flight conditions all around. Not a period for VFR/GA pilots. LIFR/IFR
conditions today will continue. Winds will be light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 33 20 42 / 60 60 0 0
GCK 25 32 17 40 / 80 70 0 0
EHA 25 36 19 44 / 30 30 0 0
LBL 27 36 20 44 / 40 30 0 0
HYS 26 32 20 37 / 80 80 0 0
P28 30 36 23 44 / 70 30 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>081-090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Light rains are spreading back northeast across much of the area.
Considering regional radar trends and water vapor imagery, it will
likely be well into the evening hours before it comes to an end
from west to east. The latest HRRR suggests a rapid drying trend
from west to east from 00Z-03Z. As winds drop off into the
overnight hours, drizzle and fog are likely to develop, so added
in areas of drizzle to most of the region.
A weak warm front will try to move through the region Monday, but
it will not be significant enough to even generate a few breaks
in the low overcast. The warm frontal passage is associated with a
rather intense storm system lifting northeast through the
northern Plains/upper Midwest.
The 12Z models continue to be all over the place with QPF Monday
and Monday night. Odds are that the moisture we have been fighting
all weekend will be lifted back across west Kentucky, at the
least, Monday afternoon and night. The models hint at shower
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois mainly
on the trailing cold front Monday night, so will keep at least a
chance PoP throughout the region, but likely to categorical PoPs
will been posted in the southeast.
Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning,
but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.
Will stay close to consensus for highs and lows through the
period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
High confidence in the extended.
Models are in good agreement with high pressure setting up over the
heartland and dominating the weather pattern. So high and dry will
be the ruling weather factor for the extended. We will start out
slightly below normal for temperatures but as the axis of the surface
high drifts east a southerly flow will resume and bring us slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend. The next
chance of rain will arrive day eight or nine as a an upper low
impacts the area early next week. Even then the low will originate
out of the southwest with no significant cold air foreseen in its
wake.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
IFR ceilings cover the entire region today, along with northeast
winds around 10kts. MVFR visibilities should accompany the rain as
it moves across all but possibly the KEVV terminal this afternoon,
but would not completely rule out a period of IFR visibilities in
the rain. The rain should exit early this evening, but figure that
the MVFR visibilities will remain. As winds die off later tonight,
expect deteriorating conditions in drizzle and fog. Those conditions
may linger through the end of the period, as winds will struggle
to pick up before 18Z.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1236 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RUC. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY TAPERED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SATURATION IN THAT AREA WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW THE BULK OF THE TIME INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR NORTH...AND HAVE ALSO CHANGED PRECIP TYPE
TO DRIZZLE IN AREAS LACKING DEEP MOISTURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHED SW TO NE. MOST OF
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SHOWERS
NEAR THE TN BORDER. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE KEEPS FILLING BACK IN EVEN
NORTH OF THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK NORTH OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MOST
RECENT HRRR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECT CLOUD CEILINGS TO
REMAIN LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO FALL OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM
SW/WAYNE COUNTY TO NE/ROWAN COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE TN/VA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN IN THAT AREA. IN FACT...RAIN TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AREA-WIDE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ONCE
IT REACHES THE TN/VA BORDER. THEN A SECOND WAVE/SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPS DIPPING TOWARDS 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTH BUT STAYING NEAR 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE DYNAMIC WEATHER REMAINS FRONT-LOADED WITHIN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DEEPENING SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE PROLONGED WET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY ARCS IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS RUNNING WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF FORCING WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS.
AT THIS POINT...ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS PREDICTED
BY THE MODELS IN A 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RIVER POINTS...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH FALLS PRIOR TO THIS...AND
IF THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
THINGS PRETTY GENERALIZED FOR THE HWO.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 50S...AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
CONDITIONS NO BETTER THAN IFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1214 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND THE
LATEST HRRR AND RUC. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
PRECIP HAS MOSTLY TAPERED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SATURATION IN THAT AREA WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW THE BULK OF THE TIME INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR NORTH...AND HAVE ALSO CHANGED PRECIP TYPE
TO DRIZZLE IN AREAS LACKING DEEP MOISTURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND IS NOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHED SW TO NE. MOST OF
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SHOWERS
NEAR THE TN BORDER. ELSEWHERE...DRIZZLE KEEPS FILLING BACK IN EVEN
NORTH OF THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK NORTH OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PER MOST
RECENT HRRR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECT CLOUD CEILINGS TO
REMAIN LOW TODAY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO FALL OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM
SW/WAYNE COUNTY TO NE/ROWAN COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE TN/VA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN IN THAT AREA. IN FACT...RAIN TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AREA-WIDE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ONCE
IT REACHES THE TN/VA BORDER. THEN A SECOND WAVE/SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPS DIPPING TOWARDS 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTH BUT STAYING NEAR 60
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
THE DYNAMIC WEATHER REMAINS FRONT-LOADED WITHIN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DEEPENING SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE PROLONGED WET WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY ARCS IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS RUNNING WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF FORCING WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS.
AT THIS POINT...ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF IS PREDICTED
BY THE MODELS IN A 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALIGNING ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT RESULT IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RIVER POINTS...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH FALLS PRIOR TO THIS...AND
IF THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
THINGS PRETTY GENERALIZED FOR THE HWO.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 50S...AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO LIFR CRITERIA AREA WIDE...WITH VARYING
VISIBILITIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAIN ON AND OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE TN BORDER.
THAT BEING SAID...KSME AND KLOZ WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST RAIN
TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT DECENT FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN ANY
LOCATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
602 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR STRATUS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT MAINTAIN SCT MENTION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY ATTM.
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC CIGS AS ENE
FLOW PERSIST AND LACK OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING GOING FORWARD
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THIS AREA TO BUILD TOWARDS TERMINALS TO SOME
EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 5000FT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A ZONE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND ONTARIO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY BALANCED TODAY DUE TO BLOCKED FLOW
AND NO IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES. AS A RESULT...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN
A THERMALLY RECEPTIVE AND HOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NOT A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY TO 1C OVER THE DTX CWA. THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN REASONABLY
ACTIVE GAUGING FROM BOTH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OUT
OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS THAT PERSISTS
ALONG AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THERE HAS BEEN NO LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION CAUGHT IN SURFACE OBSERVING PLATFORMS...BUT DEPTH OF
EXPECTED DEPTH OF INSTABILITY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT...RAIN HYDROMETEORS WITH LIKELY ICE NUCLEATION ISSUES.
MOVING FORWARD...MODELS BASICALLY PIVOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE HURON WASHING OUT THE ALREADY WEAK BOUNDARY
OUT EVEN FURTHER. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WITH TIME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER
BUILDING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. THE REAL
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS TRENDS AND DEVELOPING
EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES WORK TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SWING THE FORECAST IN COMPLETELY WITH THE
NAM IS IT REMAINS ITS BULLISH SELF. WITH THAT SAID THE RUC IS ON
BOARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALL OF THE THUMB AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAKE HURON
STRATOCUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO HAS MIXED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUD TO BEGIN TO FILL IN/SATURATE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD TOP/MOISTURE BLACK BODY RADIATIVE
COOLING. INCREASED SKY COVER MARKEDLY FOR TONIGHT AND RAISED LOWS
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MARINE AREAS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES TOMORROW AND BECOMES POSITIONED UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING FROM A JET
STREAK ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
INITIAL ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING BELOW
10000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY PER LATEST GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. STRONGER THETA-E SURGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONGER SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/OCCLUSION AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS UP THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW RUNS...RANGING FROM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY SURROUNDING MAX TEMPS AND HOW
LONG INTO THE DAY DRIZZLE WILL LAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OR LEVEL
OFF MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT
LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT A
MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR /AROUND -30C AT 500 MB
AND -6C AT 850 MB/ WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE BUT WITH THE
POLAR JET DISPLACED MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
RESULT LOCALLY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
A ZONE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND ONTARIO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY BALANCED TODAY DUE TO BLOCKED FLOW
AND NO IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES. AS A RESULT...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN
A THERMALLY RECEPTIVE AND HOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NOT A
HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C OVER GEORGIAN
BAY TO 1C OVER THE DTX CWA. THE LAKE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN REASONABLY
ACTIVE GAUGING FROM BOTH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OUT
OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS THAT PERSISTS
ALONG AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THERE HAS BEEN NO LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION CAUGHT IN SURFACE OBSERVING PLATFORMS...BUT DEPTH OF
EXPECTED DEPTH OF INSTABILITY LAYER SUGGESTS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT...RAIN HYDROMETEORS WITH LIKELY ICE NUCLEATION ISSUES.
MOVING FORWARD...MODELS BASICALLY PIVOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE HURON WASHING OUT THE ALREADY WEAK BOUNDARY
OUT EVEN FURTHER. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WITH TIME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER
BUILDING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. THE REAL
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS TRENDS AND DEVELOPING
EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES WORK TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SWING THE FORECAST IN COMPLETELY WITH THE
NAM IS IT REMAINS ITS BULLISH SELF. WITH THAT SAID THE RUC IS ON
BOARD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALL OF THE THUMB AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAKE HURON
STRATOCUMULUS OVER PORTIONS OF ONTARIO HAS MIXED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SUSPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUD TO BEGIN TO FILL IN/SATURATE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD TOP/MOISTURE BLACK BODY RADIATIVE
COOLING. INCREASED SKY COVER MARKEDLY FOR TONIGHT AND RAISED LOWS
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MARINE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES TOMORROW AND BECOMES POSITIONED UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING FROM A JET
STREAK ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
INITIAL ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING BELOW
10000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY PER LATEST GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. STRONGER THETA-E SURGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONGER SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/OCCLUSION AND LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS UP THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TIMING WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW RUNS...RANGING FROM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS ADDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY SURROUNDING MAX TEMPS AND HOW
LONG INTO THE DAY DRIZZLE WILL LAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OR LEVEL
OFF MONDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT
LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT A
MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR /AROUND -30C AT 500 MB
AND -6C AT 850 MB/ WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH LOW IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE BUT WITH THE
POLAR JET DISPLACED MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
RESULT LOCALLY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
FOCUS FOR THE TAFS HAS BEEN ASSESSING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
STRATUS/STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REGIONAL SATELLITE
AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE POOLED/RESIDING ALONG A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...BUT
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRY TO ADVECT LAKE BASED MOISTURE
INLAND. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EVEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ADVECT LAKE ERIE MOISTURE INTO THE DETROIT AREA TAF SITES. EXTENSIVE
BKN MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. KEPT CIGS AT SCT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 5000FT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1232 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN NW
FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF JAMES BAY MOVING
INTO NRN QUEBEC WAS DRAGGING A WEAK TROUGH OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN. IR LOOP SHOWED
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW LEVEL NRLY WINDS VEER TO THE ENE
THIS MORNING...THE CLOUDS THE LAKE AND ERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT NEAR THE WI BORDER. THE
HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THE VERY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING COMPARED TO SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST OF THE OBSERVED
CIGS WERE IN THE 2K-3K FT RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL
BE OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE
FCST AOB 10KT...THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL BE WEAK. IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE MIN TEMP IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS ONLY FCST TO
AROUND -7C...LITTLE OR NO ICE NUCLEI WILL BE AVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
PCPN CHANCES ARE MARGINAL...A MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ WAS MAINTAINED
FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SW.
AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTENING FROM SSW FLOW ACROSS LAKE MI WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INLAND
WEST...AND DECOUPLED WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS
WHILE READINGS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
MONDAY WILL BRING THE 500MB LOW THAT HAD SET UP SHOP OVER THE W
THIRD OF THE NATION TO THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OUT AHEAD OF
IT A BRIEF 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NE...WITH THE
SFC LOW OVER SW IA. AS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
MORE STACKED...SET UP ACROSS S MN/N IA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST TREND IS
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER UPPER MI INITIALLY...RESULTING IN
MORE OF A MIX OR MORE RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW OVER THE
AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30F
W...WHILE IN THE MID 30S CENTRAL AND E ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE E BY 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR
NEEDED TO BE OVERCOME AND THE E-ESE SFC WINDS...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO FAST. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO/EHWO FOR MORE OF A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY SPS FOR NOW.
THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING OVER WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI TO S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE FOCUS FOR SNOW WILL FINALLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...AND COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WHEN THE PRECIP DOES CHANGE OVER IT WILL BE
THE WET SLUSHY VARIETY...WITH RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW...AND WARMER AIR
ABLE TO MOVE IN...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5IN
OR LESS /HIGHEST FAR W/. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FAR WEST COULD SEE SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES...WITH THE CENTRAL U.P. 2
TO 4 INCHES. AN INCH OR LESS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. IT/S
INTERESTING EVENT TO COMPARE THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS ON
BUFKIT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FCST TREND IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE 00-06Z GFS IS ON THE QUICKER END OF THE SPECTRUM OVER
FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS STILL OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...A CHANGEABLE FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY...THE LOW AND IT/S LINGERING TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT E BY 00Z THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THAT POINT THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THIS N
STREAM WAVE SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING. SO OVERALL...THE
TREND OF HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
KIWD SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE MVFR
CLOUDS STAY OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
THOSE MVFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KSAW/KCMX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT
THE CLOUDS OUT OF KCMX AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. BUT AT KSAW...HAVE LEFT THEM IN FOR A WHILE TONIGHT...AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THINK KSAW
WILL SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AFTER WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEY GET SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMBINE WITH THE DRIER AIR
BEING ADVECTED IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY...WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN
LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
MESSY...MESSY FCST THE NEXT 36 HRS AND BECAUSE OF THAT DISCUSSION
WILL BE ON THE SHORT SIDE FOR LENGTH. MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN
TYPE...WHICH LEADS TO PROBLEMS WITH ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WARNING
IS BASED ON WHAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD BE...AND WAS STARTED
SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN WE EXPECT THINGS TO DETERIORATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVELS OVER UT...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER
IN WY. VERY UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL NOTED AT 300 MB FROM NM INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AT 300 MB THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE NOTED AT 850 MB MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF COAST...WITH 8
DEGREE C 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN NRN OK AND SWRN MO AT 12Z.
AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO WY AND CO BY 12Z MONDAY...LIFT
WILL INCREASE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND
SOME OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
FOR THE LNK...OMA AND CBF AREAS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PCPN WHICH WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN NE AND INTO
WRN IA. FAR SERN NE AND PARTS OF SWRN IA WILL JUST BE IN AN
ADVISORY...SINCE SFC TEMPS THERE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OR
POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN TYPE DEFINITELY AN ISSUE OVER THE
FCST AREA...WITH SNOW IN OUR NW ZONES AND RAIN SE ZONES. THE AREAS
IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A MIX.
ON MONDAY...HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS IA BUT
ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NE TOWARD ERN SD. THAT
SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL IN THE 12Z GFS PARAMETERS WITH UPWARDS OF
0.25 QPF AND THAT WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. SNOW LINGERS THERE PAST
6 PM THERE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN OUR SRN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD LINGER INTO TUE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL
LOW WHICH SHOULD REACH CNTRL WI BY 00Z WED.
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MIXING RATIOS/
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AVERAGING 3-4 G/KG ACROSS NERN NE AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. SOME PCPN PSBL BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TAF PERIOD WITH LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP AS AREA OF
DRIZZLE WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING SO SHOULD MAINTAIN A LIQUID PCPN TYPE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER KOFK WILL BE THE EXCEPTION BUT PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT THERE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MOVE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAKES PCPN TYPE FORECASTING
INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HAVE GIVEN
IT OUR BEST SHOT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN
AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE FOR KOMA AND KLNK. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH NO DEEP COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ065>068-078-088>090-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ091-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ043>045-050>053.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ069.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN TOWARD NY AND PA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRAPPED UNDER A
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE POCONOS), SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE, BY FAR, THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFIGURATION DESCRIBED ABOVE,
WITH MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC/DRY, WITH REGARDS TO SKY COVER. USING THE NAM AND HRRR
AS A GUIDE, WE MAY SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, YIELDING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE FOR
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER HAND, AS MIXING/ASSOCIATED CLEARING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED UNDER THE ABOVE REFERENCED CAPPING INVERSION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL BE CHILLY WHERE
SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S), WITH LOW-MID 40S
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
AS FAR AS THIS EVENING IS CONCERNED, FOR NOW, WE BLENDED TODAY`S
SKY COVER GRIDS IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS
STRATEGY WOULD YIELD AN EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC, PENDING
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH USEFUL GUIDANCE REGARDING TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOS PRODUCTS / SUPERBLEND ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM REALISTIC.
WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WOUND UP UL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PULL RAIN INTO OUR FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER PRECIP ONSET MONDAY NIGHT,
AND WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DELAYED
THE TIMING. ONCE THE RAIN DOES SPREAD IN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WE INTRODUCE HIGH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS INTO THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE / LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CONTINUING AROUND OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
OR WINTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS BIG PICTURE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH.
FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST ITSELF, UTILIZED MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE,
KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND, WITH ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
FOR DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY, DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT. RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE
FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST...LOW STRATUS DECK DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AWAY BOTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND AROUND KSYR/KRME. THUS EXPECT CIGS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT
KAVP TO FLUCTUATE IN AND OUT OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CIGS
WILL BE BROKEN TO SCATTERED. KAVP STAYS MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING FOR KSYR/KRME AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM NW TO NE AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER,
FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP BROKEN CIGS WITH MVFR IN UNTIL 02Z HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF STRONGER INVERSION
REMAINS IN PLACE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. KAVP REMAINS VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN.
THU/FRI...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR SKIES OUT LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN TOWARD NY AND PA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF PA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRAPPED UNDER A
FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS. ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND THE POCONOS), SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND HRRR HAVE, BY FAR, THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFIGURATION DESCRIBED ABOVE,
WITH MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC/DRY, WITH REGARDS TO SKY COVER. USING THE NAM AND HRRR
AS A GUIDE, WE MAY SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, YIELDING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE FOR
NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER HAND, AS MIXING/ASSOCIATED CLEARING POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED UNDER THE ABOVE REFERENCED CAPPING INVERSION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY WILL BE CHILLY WHERE
SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S), WITH LOW-MID 40S
ANTICIPATED WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
AS FAR AS THIS EVENING IS CONCERNED, FOR NOW, WE BLENDED TODAY`S
SKY COVER GRIDS IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS
STRATEGY WOULD YIELD AN EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC, PENDING
SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH USEFUL GUIDANCE REGARDING TRAPPED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOS PRODUCTS / SUPERBLEND ATTEMPT TO CLEAR
SKIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS DOESN`T SEEM REALISTIC.
WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WOUND UP UL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PULL RAIN INTO OUR FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER PRECIP ONSET MONDAY NIGHT,
AND WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DELAYED
THE TIMING. ONCE THE RAIN DOES SPREAD IN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUING RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WE INTRODUCE HIGH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS INTO THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS SHOWERY AS
SFC OCCLUSION PASSES THROUGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE FAIR AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
130 PM UPDATE... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RECENT PREVIOUS RUNS, YIELDING A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
IN THE BIG PICTURE, A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, EASTWARD TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED-THU. THEREAFTER, HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S./SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, AS ANOTHER AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS SHOWERY, AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL COMPLEX, TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY MAY FEATURE
A FEW LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S). FRI-SAT LOOK DRY,
FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL, FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST...LOW STRATUS DECK DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AWAY BOTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND AROUND KSYR/KRME. THUS EXPECT CIGS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT
KAVP TO FLUCTUATE IN AND OUT OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CIGS
WILL BE BROKEN TO SCATTERED. KAVP STAYS MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING FOR KSYR/KRME AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM NW TO NE AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER,
FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM. DIDN`T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP BROKEN CIGS WITH MVFR IN UNTIL 02Z HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD PERSIST LONGER IF STRONGER INVERSION
REMAINS IN PLACE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. KAVP REMAINS VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY, IN LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN.
THU/FRI...MOSTLY VFR, BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...PCF/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CALM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK EXPECT
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX SWITCHING
TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HAVE NOTED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED UPSTREAM IN MONTREAL AND NOW NEWPORT VT. SO I HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL MENTION A FEW
FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL VT...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN VT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 40F VSF. ALL COVERED
WELL IN FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN THE BATTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CURRENT VIS SATL PICTURE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VT EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERN
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VT. A FEW LIGHT
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE CLOUDS...WITH WARMEST VALUES SOUTH
AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL MANY
OF THE CONCEPTS ARE COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS AND CONDITIONS.
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST MAINLY INCLUDE
INCREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. 700MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST AND AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW COULD DEVELOP.
NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT BUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BLOCKED
FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB IS POSSIBLE FOR
SNOW TO FALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
GREENS BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING. SNOW...IF IT DOES FALL WOULD
ONLY BE LIKELY ABOVE 1500 FT AND REALLY ONLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE HOLDING CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS A THIN LAYER OF SATURATED AIR BETWEEN
1000-900MB WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO POINT TO THIS
STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK. HOWEVER, A SECOND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
BEHIND THE ERODING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS I CLEARED OUT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH NEW YORK VERMONT AND CANADA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH THE TYPICAL
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WARMING TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS DOWN
THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO AS WE TURN TOWARDS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -7C TO
-10C. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH SPOTTY CLOUD COVER OVER WILL LEAD TO
A LARGE RANGE OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT TO THE LOW
TEENS OR EVEN NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURE COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO DROP TO THE LOW TEENS WITH THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS COOLING TO THE UPPER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HOLDING OFF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S BY THE TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A WET TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
CURRENTLY SLK IS UNDER IFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. BASED ON FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP MODEL THIS BANK OF
SATURATED AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND SO
I`VE KEPT MENTION OF IFR AT SLK THROUGH 15Z GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR. THERE IS A CLEARING LINE ON THE NIGHT IR SATELLITE WHERE MSS
HAS JUST STARTED TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD CEILING
SO IS POSSIBLE SLK COULD BOUNCE UP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AS A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH
IN FROM CANADA AND LEAD TO DECREASED CEILINGS AGAIN. ANTICIPATE
BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MVFR CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
TAFS SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. AT RUT, THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO ERODE WITH DAYBREAK AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH FEW
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS MID DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TODAY...STALLS TONIGHT...THEN RETURNS AS
A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF AROUND 1 PM...COLD FRONT SINKING INTO SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS. SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO SE OHIO...BUT IT IS
SLOW GOING AND THINK LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF
WV/KY/VA. SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO TN
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD DRIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
CWA TONIGHT...SLIDING NORTH UP THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT
INCHING TOWARD SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...THINGS ARE PRETTY MESSY
ALOFT WITH LOTS OF LITTLE RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT LOW END POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...AND HAVE DRIZZLE
MENTIONED AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.
DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS...USING A BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS BLEND. DID MIX IN SOME HRRR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLAT 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS CUT-OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PLOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND MOVES NORTH WITH CUT-OFF LOW. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL KEEP TO OUR SOUTH JUST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING US TO AVOID ANY WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY WET WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF
QPF FIGURED FOR THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...BLENDING IN THE SREF LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR POPS...AND OVERALL BLEND FOR THE TEMPS. RESULT IS NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AND A CONTINUATION TO THE
MILD AND WET PATTERN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SHARPER AND COOLER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A BIT
MORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL
LINGER THE SCATTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IN THE COLD ADVECTION. STILL NO REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP...TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY SATURDAY UNDER LACK OF CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOTS OF IFR ACROSS WV TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THINGS MAY CHANGE
CATEGORY...BUT THE OVERALL STORY IS LOW STRATUS...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
TODAY RESULTING IN IFR TO LOW MVFR. HAVE FOG SETTLING INTO
VALLEYS TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO HUMID LOW LEVELS. WHILE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN...DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO LIMIT FOG MUCH. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
THEN COLD FRONT PASS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1223 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
7AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH EARLIER WX/POP
CHANGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON.
ORIGINAL...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE DRIER AIR IN LOWER
LEVELS BEING PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE MVFR LEVEL
CU AT SCT OR LESS COVERAGE THRU 18Z MON. THIS SHOULD LEAVE MAINLY
JUST CIRRUS AS THE PREVAILING CLOUD FOR TONIGHT AND MON MORNING
WHICH SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. NE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD PREVAIL GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT THEN
TEND TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1200 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTEND A
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MERGE WITH A LOW
OVER IOWA WHERE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
7AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING AND MOISTURE
IS PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THIS CAUSED THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO DISSIPATE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE HRRR MODEL. NEXT ISSUE
REQUIRING SOME MODIFICATION IS THE CLOUDS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMED INTO THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SO ADJUSTED CLOUDS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING BY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A
DISTURBANCE TO CAUSE SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO SHAKE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION. FORT WAYNE REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
EAST...MARION REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME UNKNOWN
PRECIPITATION. IT IS UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THIS IS SNOW OR JUST
VERY SMALL PRECIPITATION THAT THE SENSOR CANT DISCERN WHAT THE
TYPE IS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ADDED A PRE
FIRST PERIOD WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TO THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES TRYING
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE SURGING EAST NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. PLUS...LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. SO...OVERALL...IT IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUN
AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH EARLIER WX/POP
CHANGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON.
ORIGINAL...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
IOWA AND CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN UNDERNEATH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SEND AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
ALL THAT COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SET UP BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. PLUS...INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND 850 MB IS ONLY CONDITIONAL. SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GOING AS WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE HELPS TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...CANT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARM UP TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN...NON DIURNAL
TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND
15Z IN THE MORNING. I TREND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES
AROUND -6 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. IF THERE IS ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND POSSIBLY GEAUGA
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW PA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THEN
SLOWLY WARMING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 50.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS PUSHED SOUTH THRU THIS EVENING THE MVFR CU AND STRATOCU
SHOULD DISSIPATE EVEN AS THE INVERSION REMAINS PRESENT. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY JUST CIRRUS FOR TONIGHT AND MON MORNING WHICH WILL HELP
TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. NE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD
PREVAIL GRADUALLY VEERING TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT THEN
TEND TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT FOR THU.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. AS A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS WAVES
WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1049 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
OF MIDDLE TN LATE THIS MORNING. STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDED
FROM NORTHERN MS...THROUGH THE SFC LOW...NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
NASHVILLE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST KY. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE TRAILING FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF MIDDLE TN.
RAINS HAVE BEEN SCATTERED AND GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING. ONE
MAIN AREA WAS BEING FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...IMPACTING MUCH
OF THE PLATEAU. THERE IS A SMALL BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF
RAIN...BUT MORE RAIN WAS ALREADY ADVANCING INTO WEST TN AT 16Z AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID STATE BY MID AFTERNOON.
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY A FEW DEGREES TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT OBS AND ACCOUNT FOR THEM REMAINING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 30/12Z PER ACTUAL VSBY AND CEILING FLUCTUATIONS.
PER LATEST HRRR MODEL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE APPROACHING 29/12Z
COULD TRANSITION TO A VCSH EVENT AFTER 29/15Z AS MODEL SHOWING SOME DRYING
POTENTIALLY OCCURING ACROSS THE MID STATE BEFORE YET ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO MID STATE 29/20Z-30/12Z. WITH SOME QUESTION WHETHER
THIS WILL OCCUR OR NOT...WILL ADDRESS POSSIBLITY WITH VFR VSBYS/CAT LIGHT
SHWRS. OTHERWISE...AFTER 29/20Z...W TO E...A SLOW PROGRESSION FROM MAINLY
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS REGION PRODUCING ADDITIONAL AT LEAST LIGHT SHWRS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SFC WINDS...AND DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT YOU ARE ON...LIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 601 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/
(TODAY THRU TUESDAY)
SFC TROUGH INVERSION STRETCHES FROM SRN LOUISIANA NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. THE
FEATURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND DEEPLY MOIST
AIR MASS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
NEAR 100 POPS FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVG
AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN TERMS OF
SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WE KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...BUT THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO OUR NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IMPULSES UPSTREAM LOOK RATHER WEAK
AND THE MAIN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. POPS WILL STILL BE RATHER HIGH AND IN THE LIKELY
REALM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST
PART. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DO ATTEMPT TO EMPHASIZE SOME PRE
FRONTAL FORCING. BUT...THIS LOOKS A BIT QUESTIONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN IMPACT.
THE FROPA LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUES
MORNING. FORCING LOOKS RATHER STRONG THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL BE SURE TO INCLUDE SOME TSTMS POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH THE CATEGORICAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. OTW...FLOODING COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM AS ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR MON NT INTO TUES
COULD APPROACH AN AREAL AVG OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BUT...WITH THE TSTM
POSSIBILITY...HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN WHERE THE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE GREATER.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY TUES COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH FFG VALUES. FOR NOW...NO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TUES...THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
(WED THRU SAT)
29/00Z GFS SOLUTION HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER EURO
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE...THUS GOING OVERALL WITH A DRIER FORECAST
WED THRU SAT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
ON WED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE ROCKIES THRU THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID WORK WEEK
TO MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
APPROACHES...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WX PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOCLR
SKIES TO THE REGION THRU THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
WED INTO THU...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FRI INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........49
LONG TERM..................01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD AND SOGGY
CONDITIONS SLOWLY ABATE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CLOSED
GYRE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT IS FEEDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS. THIS WSW FLOW IS OVERTOP OF THE COOL AND
DENSE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS PROMOTING CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS RISE ALONG THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES. THE
COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WARMING
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW-LVL CLOUDS DISPERSE. HOWEVER MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS WILL
HAMPER THE WARMTH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE REST OF THE REGION DRY TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A SLIGHT
WARM UP TUESDAY OCCURS JUST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK
THAT WILL BRING 30-50% RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE A BACKSIDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL AID IN PUSHING A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.3" IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL SET-UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL LOWER AND THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF US 281. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
GIVEN LIMITED MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 150-200 J/KG AND LIMITED
MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COLD AS HIGHS (WITH THE SUN OUT)
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER CLEAR AND SEASONAL
LATE FALL DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LIMITED WITH THIS COLD FRONT FOR MUCH
MORE THAN JUST SHOWERS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISUTRE RETURN COULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 56 48 58 46 / 30 10 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 56 47 58 45 / 30 20 20 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 56 49 59 47 / 20 10 20 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 55 44 58 42 / 20 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 61 50 63 48 / 10 - 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 41 55 44 57 43 / 30 10 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 59 50 60 47 / 10 10 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 56 48 57 46 / 20 20 20 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 56 50 58 49 / 30 20 30 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 58 51 59 48 / 20 10 20 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 58 51 60 49 / 20 10 20 30 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
944 AM PST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND SLOWLY START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WEATHER IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE MEANTIME...A STAGNANT AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WITH AREAS OF STUBBORN FOG LINGERING OVER
THE LOWLANDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY. ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES STORMY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED STARTING TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER SE B.C. THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WARM AIR ALOFT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...TRAPPING
THE AIR BENEATH WITH A STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. FOG COVERAGE
HAS BEEN EXPANDING EACH OF THE LAST 4 MORNINGS...AND THIS MORNING
IS NO EXCEPTION. DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN MOST PLACES FROM
OLYMPIA TO EVERETT...INCLUDING THE KITSAP PENINSULA AND HOOD CANAL
AREA. WITH SO LITTLE MIXING AND ANEMIC SOLAR INSOLATION...THE FOG
TODAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY STUBBORN. OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND
REGION...THE 15Z HRRR DOES NOT SHOW VISIBILITY IMPROVING ABOVE 1
MILE UNTIL ABOUT 22Z...OR 2 PM.
FOG WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE
IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS TO WHAT IS SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
FOG SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT QUICKER TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...GIVEN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THE DISSIPATION OF THE DAYS-OLD LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A CHANGE TO S/SW FLOW ALOFT
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BRUSH
WRN WA ON MON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK...WITH ONLY A FEW MEAGER
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED AS A DISSIPATING FRONT
MOVES INLAND. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST DROPS OF RAIN SHOULD REACH THE
COAST AROUND MID-DAY. IF ANY RAIN REACHES THE INTERIOR BEFORE
DISSIPATION...IT WOULD BE IN THE 4-8 PM TIME FRAME.
THOUGH TOMORROW`S WEATHER WILL LACK PANACHE...THE FRONT WILL PAVE
THE WAY FOR MORE ACTIVE SW FLOW ALOFT TO START AIMING TOWARD THE
PAC NW WITH STRONGER FRONTS TO COME. LOOKING LIKE A RESPECTABLE
WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN WA ON TUE PM...ACCOMPANIED BY
HEAVIER RAIN AND WIND. AS WITH MANY WARM FRONTS...IT WILL BE
WINDIEST IN SOUTHEAST-WIND PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS THE COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR. COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A
WIND ADVISORY. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS
ON WED...WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERION OVER THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
DRY LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. A VERY STRONG INVERSION IS IN
PLACE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON MAKING THE AIR MASS VERY STABLE.
A LARGE AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION FROM AROUND OLYMPIA UP THROUGH S
WHIDBEY ISLAND. THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION THE PUGET SOUND REGION FOG WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND PROBABLY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL 21Z-22Z...AND EVEN THEN
THERE WILL BE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUND THAT WILL NOT CLEAR TODAY.
KSEA...SEA-TAC IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BIG AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS
CENTERED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THAT INCREASES THE ODDS THAT
IT WILL CLEAR OUT...BUT THAT WILL NOT LIKELY HAPPEN UNTIL 21Z OR SO.
IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LATER THAN THAT. VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN 1/4SM OR LESS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
KAM
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND ON MONDAY AND DISSIPATE WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WATERS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE
BREAK IN THE WINDS BETWEEN THE MONDAY FRONT AND TUESDAYS SYSTEM.
GALES ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST AND OVER THE N INTERIOR WATERS. GALES
COULD START ON THE COAST AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE
INTERIOR WATERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING.
THE GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS AGREE THAT THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH GALES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LIKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
EACH SYSTEM IS STILL LOW. KAM
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER ON THU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN DURING THE 36-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
4 PM PST THU. ELSEWHERE...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.HANER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY
AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR BELLEVUE AND
VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SEATTLE AND
VICINITY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR
GALE WATCH COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTH INLAND WATERS AND
ADMIRALTY INLET.
&&
$$
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