Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/04/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1022 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly moves across the region tonight. An
approaching warm front may bring some light rain Tuesday, especially
south of the Mass Pike. A cold front will move south across the
region Tuesday night followed by high pressure building to the north
on Wednesday. Another system will likely bring a period of snow and
ice changing to rain late Wednesday night into Thursday, then more
rain heavy at times Thursday night into Friday which may end as a
period of snow. High pressure returns Saturday, then watching a
possible coastal storm tracking to the south next Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
Updated sky cover based on the latest RAP guidance which has a
good handle on things based on RH values at 850 hPa. Nudged down
low temperatures toward the 10th percentile of guidance based on
the good radiational cooling. This knocks things down into the
mid 20s across some locations across northern MA.
Previous discussion...
A weak ridge of high pressure has allowed for skies to
temporarily become mostly clear early this evening. Clouds
return overnight ahead of a shortwave and approaching warm
front. Temp forecast tonight is tricky as a period radiational
cooling this evening will allow temps to drop before stabilizing
overnight. Used a blend of 2m temps and MOS guidance which
yields lows upper 20s to lower 30s for much of the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
Warm front moves into SNE from the SW with model guidance suggesting
a weak wave developing on the front. Deep moisture in place with
weak low level convergence should bring some light rain to SNE.
Convergence is not very strong so expect a light QPF event,
generally under 0.10" and focused south of the Pike with timing from
late morning to mid afternoon before moving out. Temps will reach
mid 40s across CT/RI and SE MA with upper 40s near the south coast,
but holding near 40 across northern MA which should remain north of
the warm front and weak wave. It is possible temps hold in the upper
30s in portions of northern MA with light N/NE flow.
Tuesday night...
Surface wave exits early evening with a cold front dropping south
across SNE during the night. Flow aloft is west so moisture will not
be in a hurry to depart and could see a renewed area of light precip
develop assocd with weak low level frontogenesis. Ptype mostly rain,
but there could be some light snow north of the Pike after midnight
if any precip does develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* An overall very active period with multiple systems impacting the
area bringing a variety of precipitation types.
* Round 1 (Wednesday Night into Thursday): Wintry mix changing to
rain. Thursday AM commute could be messy.
* Round 2 (Thursday night into Friday): Soaking rain with potential
downpours and localized flooding. There may even be a rumble of
thunder. After a mild & muggy start, falling temperatures through
the day. May end as a little snow, especially in interior high
elevations.
* Round 3 (Sunday): After a dry and cold Saturday, there is
potential for light accumulating snowfall on Sunday. Pattern looks
progressive so not looking at tremendous amount of snowfall. But
confidence is low this far out.
Details...
Wednesday into Thursday...
* Wintry mix changing to rain potentially impacting Thursday AM
commute *
There may be some lingering leftover showers but much of Wednesday
looks dry with weak high pressure over Southern Ontario. The surface
high will reinforce colder air in the lower levels, so expect
seasonably cold temperatures in the 30s, light northwest winds and a
mix of sun and clouds. But by the afternoon, clouds will be on the
increase ahead of the first in a series of shortwave troughs coming
up the Appalachians. The series of shortwave energy coming our way
is in response to a positively tilted upper level trough centered
over the Four Corners region. Some of the Bufkit soundings support
the initial onset of precipitation as snow during the pre-dawn
hours. However, as warmer air moves in aloft, snow will likely
change over to freezing rain and/or sleet. The timing could be
problematic for the Thursday morning commute. By mid morning, the
threat of freezing rain should come to an end for the coastal plains
as surface temperatures warm above freezing and winds shift to the
east out of the relatively warmer ocean waters. The interior higher
elevations could see a more prolonged period of freezing rain due to
the difficulty of getting rid of the low-level cold air. Thankfully,
this is a relatively progressive system and all areas should dry out
by Thursday afternoon. Overall, looking at possibly up to a couple
of inches of snow, with higher amounts north of the MA turnpike.
Also, a few hundredths of an inch of ice is possible in the coastal
plains with up to two tenths of an inch possible in the interior
high elevations.
Thursday night into Friday night...
* Soaking rain possible with locally heavy downpours *
The main upper level trough moves east into the Mississippi River
valley, resulting in a potential severe weather for parts of the
Southeast. By late Thursday and early Friday, the upper level trough
will move northeastward up the Eastern Seaboard. As it does so, it
will lift a low across New England. While we are increasingly
confident that this is a rain event, the track of the low will
determine how much rain we can get from an anomalously loaded
atmosphere. The GEFS Ensemble shows PWATs 3 to 4 standard deviations
above normal, indicating the potential for a heavy rain event
Thursday night into Friday. The question is, will the loaded
atmosphere translate to observed rainfall. The ECMWF shows a 80 to
90 kt low level jet screaming up the coast. The placement of the low
level jet will be key to where the heaviest rain sets up. As of now,
it looks like just off shore but with the event still more than 3
days away, will have to keep a close eye due to the potential for
over 2 inches of rain. The good news is that the system lifts off
quickly into the Canadian maritimes, but the heavy rain rate
enhanced by a strong low level jet could lead to localized flooding.
Friday morning could be a raw one with wind driven rain. There may
even be a rumble of thunder near the coast as EC Ensemble shows a
few hundreds joules of CAPE.
The other question is how much of the 850mb wind translate to the
surface. With cold ocean temperatures (low 40s), there will likely
be an inversion near the surface with 850mb temperatures surging to
+12 or +13C. But then as colder air moves in by Friday afternoon,
lapse rates are expected to steepen and winds will likely pick up at
the surface. Gale headlines could be needed Friday night into
Saturday, especially for the outer waters. In addition, there could
be a period of light snow Friday night into early Saturday as the
system exits and cold air returns. This is a strong cold front with
850mb temperatures falling to -14 to -16C by Saturday morning. There
is also a small risk of freezing spray early Saturday morning.
Saturday into Monday...
* Seasonably cold Saturday with potential for light accumulating
snow Sunday. Confidence is low this far out *
Saturday looks dry and cold with sub-freezing highs possible away
from the immediate coast. Models swing another trough through
heading into Sunday. If Saturday temperatures pan out as they are
currently forecasted, the precipitation will be mostly in the form
of snow. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the overall pattern looks to
be rather progressive so currently not looking at tremendous amount
of snow. Obviously, confidence remains low in the forecast at this
point in time and this system will be impacted by how things pan out
during the work week. After the system exits late Sunday, Monday
looks mostly dry and seasonably cold.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR, with cigs 4-8k ft returning after 06z. Light winds.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
A period of MVFR cigs are likely to develop between 15z and 18z
focused south of the MA Turnpike. Localized IFR possible late
near the south coast. A few light showers are possible, mainly
south of the MA Turnpike. Light winds.
Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Becoming VFR in the interior, but MVFR/IFR cigs may linger near
the coast, especially Cape/Islands. Spotty light rain is
possible, especially south of the Pike after midnight.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
SN likely, PL likely, FZRA likely.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. PL
likely, FZRA likely, chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
A brief period of west gusts to 20-25 kt possible this evening,
especially eastern waters then winds and seas diminish
overnight and become light. Light winds and seas below SCA
Tue/Tue night. A period of light rain may briefly reduce vsbys
Tue.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
likely, chance of snow, chance of sleet, freezing rain likely.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, sleet likely,
freezing rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Rain.
Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Chai
NEAR TERM...Frank/BL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Frank/BL
MARINE...KJC/BL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
842 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
.UPDATE...
Increasing upper jet support will lead to strengthening low to mid
level frontogenesis across Se Mi during the course of the night. The
tightening of the low level thermal gradient along the sfc front
across nrn IN/OH will draw colder air into Se Mi tonight within
increasing NNE sfc winds. In terms of freezing rain/drizzle
potential, the current sfc dewpoints now advecting into the area from
the north (upper 20s) are a bit concerning. However, this dry air
may actually be enough to limit the extent of freezing drizzle
overnight/early Tues morning, perhaps even inhibit it altogether. Sfc
dewpoints across the southern lakes region have been running lower
than earlier model solutions suggested. The 00Z sounding was also
much drier below 3000 feet than what earlier model solutions
indicated it would be. The last few runs of the RAP have also been
backing off the timing/amount of precip tonight. These factors will
support pushing the timing of any drizzle back several hours tonight.
There will still be decent low level moisture advection during the
night and low level frontal forcing will strengthen markedly as the
front slides south across the area late tonight/early Tues morning.
These factors support maintaining a chance for some light
rain/drizzle. Given the low dewpoints advecting in, there still
continues to be a chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle
before a more significant push of drier air arrives from the north.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 604 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
AVIATION...
Low pressure will lift across nrn Indiana and Ohio tonight, leading
to a developing frontal inversion across Se Mi. Moisture advection
into this inversion will support the expansion of stratus from Iowa
early this evening into Se Mi tonight, mainly after 02 or 03Z. Based
on latest observations, model solutions seem too aggressive with
respect to the rate of moistening/cloud development into Se Mi. The
bulk of model solutions are also not dry enough in the boundary
layer. This suggests some delay in the lower ceilings (MVFR)
arriving at the terminals; likely after midnight.
There is expected to be decent directional shear atop the moist
layer, so drizzle remains a possibility (assuming the boundary layer
can moisten a little better). The strengthening of the low level
frontal boundary will increase the north-northeast flow across Lower
Mi, driving colder air into the region at the surface, which
supports at least a chance of some FZDZ north of FNT. The northerly
flow will then start forcing drier air into Se Mi late Tues morning
into the afternoon, leading to rising ceiling heights.
For DTW...RAP soundings with some support of upstream observations
suggest ceilings around 4k feet will develop across metro around
midnight before enough moistening in the sub 3k foot layer can
occur. Stronger frontal forcing and a better push of low level
moisture will then support MVFR, perhaps some IFR and light
rain/drizzle, early Tues morning. Temps at metro will hold above
freezing.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings below 5000 feet overnight into Tuesday morning.
* Very low in the occurrence of freezing drizzle Tuesday morning.
Higher likelihood for temperatures to remain just above freezing
during this time.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
DISCUSSION...
A passing upper ridge and a very stable profile today led to benign
weather conditions that will continue on into tonight as cloud cover
gradually fills back in. A frontal boundary draped from central IL
to northern OH today will become the focus for some light
precipitation late tonight into Tuesday as a weak midlevel
shortwave/jet streak tracks overhead. Low pressure will develop
along the front and slide through the Ohio Valley tonight and most
of the QPF will remain to our south, but just enough saturation and
lift should be present in the low levels to generate some pockets of
drizzle or very light showers after midnight. Temperatures will
likely start off in the mid 30s when precip begins tonight, but then
gradually fall below freezing from north to south as the frontal
zone tightens and northerly flow strengthens through the day. This
introduces the chance for light freezing drizzle with the best
chance of occurring along/south of I-69 and along/north of the Irish
Hills during the morning and into the early afternoon. Light snow
showers will also be briefly possible if moisture quality sustains a
sufficient depth. Some uncertainty still remains on how far south
the freezing line will progress through the day, but thinking with
daytime heating and the position of the surface front, Metro Detroit
should stay above freezing through the day. By the time temps fall
below freezing there during the evening, the chance for precip will
have lowered significantly. Even where freezing drizzle does occur,
widespread icing is not expected with how light/scattered the precip
will be, though a few slick spots will be possible on untreated and
elevated surfaces. Northerly flow off Lake Huron late tonight/tomorrow
will lead to elevated wave action and minor lakeshore flooding
concerns along the Thumb.
High pressure expands over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
as the front remains active south of the OH border. Temperatures
Wednesday will be close to normal in the mid 20s to lower 30s. The
dry weather will be short lived as a stronger system is set to lift
through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday. The
trough currently observed digging through the Great Basin will swing
through the southern Plains and lift up the Mississippi Valley,
leading to an open wave low forming along the nearly stationary
frontal zone still draped just to our south and extending westward.
Latest guidance indicates a coupled jet structure moving overhead,
providing synoptic forcing for the low to develop. Models have been
fairly consistent on the surface low tracking just to our southeast,
placing SE Michigan within a favorable position for extra forcing
via deformation. Accumulating snow is likely to start overnight
Wednesday and continue into Thursday morning or possibly early
afternoon. QPF has trended slightly upward with the 12z suite and
the NAM has abandoned its previous dry solution. Current forecast is
for a solid 2 to 4 inch accumulation. Depending on the track of the
low, namely if a more northerly track is realized, there will be a
chance for a wintry mix across the southern counties that may eat
into snow accumulations.
Upper troughing lingers over the Great Lakes Friday into Sunday as
additional shortwave energy pivots overhead. This regime, paired
with an arctic air mass arriving in the wake of the Thursday system,
will result in potential for scattered snow showers throughout the
weekend. Chances will be the highest on Friday with the initial
surge of cold air, but at least a slight chance will be carried
through the weekend given the broad cyclonic flow and favorable
thermodynamic profiles. Temperatures will remain near normal values
for early February. Large scale flow then becomes more zonal for
early next week with some moderation in temperatures likely. Another
chance for accumulating snow exists in the late Sunday to early
Tuesday time frame, but significant system timing discrepancies
exist and will bear monitoring in future forecast updates.
MARINE...
After being caught in between a few different high and low pressure
systems today resulting in a weak pressure gradient, changes will
come for the mid week period. A high pressure system over western
Canada will track through the northern plains Tuesday before
centering itself over the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold air within
the high will strengthen the stalled front setting up across the
northern Ohio Valley. Northerly winds will usher in a colder airmass
which will decrease stability over the waters which in turn will
allow winds to strengthen to around 30 knots. This will build wave
heights along the Lake Huron shoreline necessitating a small craft
advisory Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak low will track along the
front Tuesday will little effect across most of the area waters. A
stronger low will then lift along the front Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
for MIZ049-055-063.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for
LHZ421-441>443.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......DRK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
441 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAF UPDATE...
An approaching storm system will bring windy conditions through
08z with winds around 30G40KTS decreasing to 10-20KTS after 08z. A
few areas of MVFR conditions with skies BKN030 amd visibility
3 miles in rain and mountain snow showers. Otherwise VFR
conditions with skies SCT-BKN040-080.
.PREV DISCUSSION...213 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds will continue into the overnight hours as we await
the arrival of the first cold front Tuesday morning from the
west. Tuesday will be much cooler with stagnant temperatures
through much of the day. We will also see isolated snow showers
over the mountains, especially over the Sacramento Mountains. A
second backdoor cold front will arrive Tuesday night from the
northeast, ushering in very cold air and scattered snow showers
over Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties. Snow accumulations of
One to two inches are possible for El Paso with higher amounts
eastward over Hudspeth County. Six to ten inches are possible
over the Sacramento Mountains. Wednesday will be very cold area
wide, perhaps the coldest of the season. Temperatures will quickly
rebound Thursday into the weekend as dry weather returns. More
wind and rain chances will be possible early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
High and mid level cloud cover has been filling in the area today.
Winds are currently gusting up to 30 mph in the lowlands and up to
55 in the mountain zones. These winds will hold their strength as we
proceed into the evening hours. East slops will continue to gust
through tonight and into the early morning hours, and a continuation
of the wind advisory that is out now will cover these east slopes.
A very strong upper level low is currently located over central
Utah, and will move south toward southern NM tomorrow. A pacific
cold front attached to the low at the surface will approach the Gila
around 06Z Tuesday (Midnight tonight). This will bring some light
snow showers to the Gila, accumulations for Tuesday staying below 2
inches for areas above 6,000ft. Rain shower potential as the front
proceeds south east will be low, until it reaches Las Cruces, around
15Z. A few showers could develop from Las Cruces to Hudspeth along
the CF boundary through the early afternoon hours, especially with
warmer southwesterlies at 700mb, on top of the cooler surface air
mass. Accumulations are very light (under 0.2 inches), as PWATS
max out around 0.38 inches in the late morning hours. Snow showers
will occur most of Tuesday in the Sacramentos, and will have
higher accumulations than the Gila. Snow fall below 7,500ft could
total to 3 inches by 00Z Wednesday (Tuesday evening), with up to 6
inches above 7,500ft.
Each CAM model is handling tomorrow`s lowland rain differently. NAM
Nest brings initial showers in to El Paso and Hudspeth county with
the CF Tuesday morning, and doesn`t play into the afternoon
convection. NMMB and the HRRR want to play up the chance of elevated
convection over the cooler surface air in El Paso and Hudspeth
counties later Tuesday afternoon. GFS soundings have a pretty strong
inversion around 500mb which makes sense with our southwest winds
aloft, and the upper level trough axis still in AZ at this time.
So I kept the chance for afternoon showers low.
Temperatures will drop considerably Tuesday as the pacific cold
front moves through early Tuesday morning. 20 degrees below normal
in the Gila and up to 10 degrees below normal in the lowlands.
More activity to come Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Cold air advection should be occurring areawide by Tuesday
afternoon, and especially after sunset as cool air flows in from
the west. Along with this, very dry air will filter in to the
western half of the forecast area, effectively ending any
precipitation chances west of the Continental Divide by Tuesday
night. To the east, we could still see some lowland rain showers
and mountain snows Tuesday evening before a major change
overnight.
A strong push of cold, polar air from the southern Plains will
arrive shortly before midnight Tuesday night. This airmass looks
to be one of the coldest we`ve seen this season, with temperatures
free falling overnight to well below freezing areawide. One impact
that might go under the radar would be slick roadways overnight.
Any wet roadways will freeze Wednesday morning and become
dangerous for morning commuters. Primary forecast problem this
issuance regards the westward extent of leftover moisture to allow
for snowfall, as well as the magnitude of cold air advection and
timing of when snow would reach the desert floor. GFS runs have
been consistently pushing moisture further east, preventing any
snow accumulations across the El Paso metro. The NAM is been much
more liberal, with accumulating snowfall in El Paso and higher
amounts over Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Locations west of the
Rio Grande will likely see little to no snowfall due to the very
dry air in place. Stronger cold air advection in the NAM would
allow for snow as early as midnight and continuing throughout the
Wednesday morning hours. Continued model discrepancy with snow
totals has led to low confidence for the I-10 corridor. With the
official forecast projecting T-2" for El Paso. Further east into
Hudspeth County, confidence for advisory criteria snow is higher.
Expecting to see around 2-4" near Sierra Blanca, with locally
higher amounts over the highlands. The highest amounts are
expected to fall over the Sacramento Mountains, where we could see
24-hour totals in the 6-10" range. This looks to be just under
Warning criteria, as storm totals are occurring over a 36-hour
span. No winter headlines yet, but expecting products would need
to be issued within the next 24 hours.
Snowfall should end by early Wednesday afternoon as the upper
trough axis finally progresses eastward over the area, leaving
more subsident air aloft and dry west winds kicking any residual
moisture out of the area. Wednesday afternoon will be very cold,
especially with snow on the ground over far west Texas.
Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees below average for early
February. Looking at climate records, while this is very cold,
it`s not quite historic. Not expecting any temperatures records
to be broken despite Wednesday being one of the coldest days of
the year. Bundle up!
After a cold Thursday morning, we begin a warming trend into the
weekend as dry, northwest flow aloft promotes mostly clear skies.
Winds on Thursday could be a little breezy, though not strong
enough for an advisory. Fairly quiet weather will continue into
Sunday, with perhaps a few highs near 70 degrees Sunday afternoon.
The extended forecast features more chances of wind and rain as
global models have consistently deepened another cutoff low over
the SW United States. While we could again see more impactful
winds, this system looks to be more rain than snow at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy conditions today as a strong upper and surface system impact
southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Sustained winds will be in
the 25-35 mph range with gusts near 50 mph across the lowlands and
60 mph in the Blacks and Sacramento Mtns. High temperatures will be
in the mid 60s most locations with a few upper 60s possible. Windy
and high mixing heights result in excellent vent rates with min RH`s
between 25-35% range.
A pair of cold fronts will move through the region, one Monday night
into Tuesday and again on Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Consequently, temperatures will be in the mid 40s Tuesday and
perhaps barely reaching 40 Wednesday afternoon. Good vent rates
Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered snow showers will also be possible,
across the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday, with accumulations reaching
up to 6 inches above 7,500ft and 3 inches below. Additionally, from
the lowlands of El Paso and eastward, an inch of snow will be
possible late Tuesday night. Winds will be mildly breezy to breezy
at times Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday to manageable levels (50s).
Dry weather expected with lessening winds and mainly poor vent rates
into Friday into next weekend. The good news, temperatures warm well
into the 60s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 43 50 28 41 / 30 40 50 30
Sierra Blanca 38 54 22 34 / 20 20 70 50
Las Cruces 36 47 23 40 / 30 30 30 30
Alamogordo 37 48 21 40 / 30 30 40 30
Cloudcroft 23 28 10 21 / 50 40 60 40
Truth or Consequences 32 47 22 41 / 20 10 0 0
Silver City 28 40 21 37 / 40 10 0 0
Deming 33 49 21 42 / 20 20 10 0
Lordsburg 28 45 20 41 / 30 20 0 0
West El Paso Metro 43 51 29 41 / 30 40 40 30
Dell City 36 54 18 37 / 10 30 60 50
Fort Hancock 39 59 24 41 / 20 30 70 50
Loma Linda 39 47 23 34 / 30 40 50 40
Fabens 41 55 26 41 / 30 40 50 40
Santa Teresa 37 50 25 40 / 30 40 40 30
White Sands HQ 40 49 28 41 / 30 30 40 30
Jornada Range 33 48 21 41 / 20 30 20 30
Hatch 32 50 21 44 / 10 20 10 10
Columbus 36 50 25 43 / 30 20 20 20
Orogrande 38 48 22 39 / 30 30 40 40
Mayhill 30 41 13 31 / 30 40 60 40
Mescalero 25 37 11 30 / 40 40 50 40
Timberon 27 37 12 28 / 40 40 60 50
Winston 26 40 18 36 / 50 10 0 0
Hillsboro 29 47 19 41 / 30 10 10 0
Spaceport 30 48 19 41 / 10 20 10 10
Lake Roberts 22 39 16 37 / 50 20 0 0
Hurley 27 43 18 39 / 30 10 0 0
Cliff 20 46 14 44 / 50 10 0 0
Mule Creek 23 40 20 40 / 50 10 0 0
Faywood 28 45 20 40 / 30 20 0 0
Animas 30 48 20 44 / 30 20 0 0
Hachita 29 49 18 42 / 20 20 0 0
Antelope Wells 32 49 21 44 / 30 30 10 10
Cloverdale 32 42 23 39 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ403>407-409>414-
417.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ402-408-
415-416.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ404.
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for TXZ418>421-423.
&&
$$
05-Rogash/32/05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
632 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
Subsidence behind the mid-level trough axis brought subsidence to
extreme northwest Colorado and northeast Utah early this evening.
In response, snow showers have ended across the area with the
exception of some light flurries in the Roosevelt area. NAMNest
best depicted this area of showers and suggested it will wrap up
by 03Z. All high resolution models indicated that additional snow
across COZ 1 and UTZ 24 is unlikely tonight, therefore, have
cancelled the Winter Weather Advisories for these zones early.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
The storm is pretty much on track with the front currently over
the UT/CO state line. The prefrontal air mass is dry and well
mixed so winds are really gusty ahead of the front. Most of the
precipitation reaching the ground is confined to the front while
elsewhere dry air is causing evaporation, which is also enhancing
the wind gusts. Snow has been moderate to heavy at times in the
frontal band, but daytime heating has slowed the eastward
progression. By late this afternoon the front should move fairly
quickly towards the divide. There is still a chance for some snow
bursts as strong winds have accompanied the front so brief periods
of reduced visibility can not be ruled out. A lot of places in the
40s and 50s this morning are dropping into the teens and 20s so
flash freezing on the roads is possible. While instability is
present it might not be sufficient for upright convection. The
HRRR showed the potential for lightning along the front as it gets
close to the divide. Large-scale lift associated with this system
is expected to gradually weaken through tonight. Regardless there
should be enough orographics in the post frontal air mass, which
will be especially cold, and snow ratios will decrease as a
result. These snow showers will favor the northern facing slopes
and continue through the day tomorrow mainly in the higher
elevations. The latest models still show the secondary low
pressure that develops over the San Juan mountains. The NAM is
showing a noticably increase in the snow amounts tomorrow
afternoon. Not sure if this is from the unstable orographics or
this deepening low pressure. Overall snowfall totals have
increased slightly.
Temperatures are crashing behind the front with most places dropping
to -10 to -20 C at 700 mb by tomorrow, so highs will feel
significantly different compared to Sunday. Snow should come to an
end tomorrow evening. Snowfall totals for this event seem on track,
but the trends from the NAM will be considered moving forward.
Tomorrow night the clouds should clear for most locations with the
exception of the north side of some mountain ranges. This as well
as fresh snow cover will dictate how cold the temperatures drop.
It looks like single digits or colder for everyone except far
southeast Utah, which only reaches the teens. The favored valleys
will be gunning for -20 by Wednesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
We will be in a deep northwest flow regime as the ridge pumps up
again off the Pacific Coast. IVT parameters suggest another decent
and prolonged flow of moisture into and around the periphery of
the ridge through the late week period. This will basically turn
the snow guns on across the Colorado mountains. The northern
mountains ranges look to do especially well while the rates taper
off into the northern San Juans. Models may be overdoing things
attm but looks likely snow will be measured in feet at places by
the Saturday morning as the flow begins to back more to the west
and the moisture field is wrung out. The Elks, Flat Tops, Gore,
Park and Elk Heads should all be adding some good snowpack by the
time this long term event ends perhaps on Saturday. Another
trough will be digging into the PacNW early in the weekend and
there is decent model agreement that this upper low closes off
over southern California early next week. This system will
eventually drop another front and some precipitation into the area
by late weekend. This again could be a prolonged event lasting
into early next week. Temperatures will stay below normal through
the late week period with some gradual warming late in the period
across the West.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
A potent, cold low pressure system will continue to move through
the area overnight, lingering along the Continental Divide on
Tuesday. Frequent, MVFR and IFR conditions will impact TAF sites
east of a north-south line through KGJT this evening. Chances are
reduced later tonight and Tuesday, but 25 to 40 percent shower
chances persist for sites east of a KHDN-KRIL-KTEX-KMTJ line with
CIGS below ILS breakpoints from KRIL, KEGE and KASE for much of
the period. Areas west of the line will have VFR conditions
throughout the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Tuesday for COZ003>005-
009-010-012-013-018-019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ002.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for UTZ025.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM MST Tuesday for UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a deep
trough positioned across the western states and confluent mid-
level flow over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes ahead
of this trough. Despite some mid-level returns upstream, ample
dry air below 700mb has kept the region dry. Meanwhile, a
secondary cold front is moving southeast across northwest
Wisconsin early this afternoon. Temperatures fall into the single
digits and teens behind this front over northern Minnesota. As
arctic high pressure builds southeast into the region, forecast
concerns generally revolve around clouds and temps.
Tonight...The cold front will continue to move southeast across
northern Wisconsin this evening, switching winds to the north.
Cold advection will increase behind the front while arctic high
pressure noses into the state. As a result, temperatures will
trend colder tonight. But because of a steady wind, and persistent
mid and high clouds overhead, went with a blend of the best
performing guidance (emcwf products) and the national blend.
Forecast soundings indicate the dry wedge will persist below 700mb
tonight. Wind trajectories dont appear to veer enough for a chance
of lake effect precip along the Lake Michigan shoreline, so
maintained a dry forecast.
Tuesday...Little changes as north to northwest winds will continue
to cold advect prolonging the cooling trend. Precip will remain
tied to the primary frontal system over the Ohio Valley while high
pressure draws closer to the state. Will continue to see mid and
high clouds overhead which will lead to filtered sunshine. Lake
clouds may also make a run towards far northern WI due to growing
instability over Lake Superior. Highs ranging from the upper teens
in the north woods to the middle 20s over northeast WI.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
Surface high pressure will provide dry weather to
the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A short wave trough
lifting north from the Central Plains could bring some light snow
to east Central Wisconsin late Wednesday night and early Thursday
but any accumulations should be light.
Northwest upper flow and surface high building in from Lake
Winnipeg should bring dry weather Thursday afternoon through
Saturday, though some lake effect flurries are not impossible.
A surface low moving across the Central Plains towards the
Western Great Lakes Sunday or Sunday evening looks like it should
have access to Gulf moisture and could produce some significant
snows in Wisconsin. There is reasonable agreement with the GFS
and ECMWF but too far away to have a lot of confidence at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
VFR conditions are expected for tonight and Tuesday with mid and
high clouds passing overhead due to low pressure that is forecast
to move from the mid-MS Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes
tonight and into the northeast CONUS Tuesday. North winds are
forecast to increase tonight as the low pressure passes to our
south. Some lake clouds may drift into north-central WI later
tonight, but remain mainly north of the RHI TAF site. High
pressure will build into the Upper MS Valley on Tuesday with winds
backing northwest and diminishing.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......AK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION and NEAR TERM sections have been updated
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
A slow moving frontal system is expected to affect the area into
Thursday. In the wake of this system, high pressure will move into
the area for the later parts of the week, and on into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
Had to raise winds and few knots and add gusts to 25 knots the rest
of the night overall all but far northern counties based on trends
and the RAP which was indicating a tight surface pressure gradient
south of the cold front, which was just northeast of KLAF at 02z.
Radar was showing the bulk of the echoes over areas near and south
of Vincennes and Bloomington. This agrees well with ongoing PoPs.
Still, nothing seen on the obs but light rain from AC deck.
Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 638 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
Sped up PoPs per radar echoes and ob over Daviess county that was
showing sprinkles.
Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
Short term model data suggest frontal system currently over far
northern Indiana will begin drifting into the far northwest zones
around 040600Z, reaching the central zones by sunrise Tuesday. Lift
and gradual saturation of the precipitation bearing layer will begin
over the southwest zones during the early evening hours, and should
gradually spread northward tonight. Will start to bring in PoPs over
the southwest zones by 040100Z, and gradually spread them northeast
with time tonight.
Short term models hint that the more organized lift late tonight may
set up south of the local area, closer to where the low level jet
will be.
Given the warm advection ahead of the front tonight, not expecting
temperatures to fall off to much, with much of the temperature fall
occurring in the post frontal zone. As a result, will raise the GFS
MOS lows tonight, especially over the southern zones which should
stay in the warm sector most of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
Complicated forecast during this period, as several waves of low
pressure ripple along a frontal system that is expected to
gradually sink south with time.
Models in general agreement in sagging the front south of the
forecast area by Tuesday evening, as a weak wave ripples along the
front. Will keep the PoPs rather high into Tuesday evening as a
result, especially over the southern zones, and then taper them off
later Tuesday evening as the wave pushes off to the east. It appears
enough cold air may wrap into the system, mainly in the lower
levels, to support a change over to a wintry mix from north to south
as the event winds down Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thicknesses
look to remain rather high into Tuesday evening, so this lends more
support towards a wintry mix than just snow. Depending on how fast
things change over, potential exists for some light snow or ice
accumulations late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Models suggest a stronger low pressure system will ride up the front
in the Wednesday night or Thursday morning time frame. There is
still quite of bit of variance among the ensembles as the track of
this system, ranging from across southeast Indiana to eastern
Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Majority of the ensembles suggest
the heavy snow axis will be northwest of the local area, although
some of the more southerly solutions would put the heavier snow axis
into the northwest zones.
Will bring higher PoPs back into the area for Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday to cover this system. Thicknesses still look rather
high, suggesting better potential for a wintry mix over snow.
Additional snow or ice accumulations are possible Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. Headlines may be required at some point,
when the track of the surface low becomes more certain.
With the front still expected to be in the process of moving through
the southern zones Tuesday, will raise the GFS MOS highs several
degrees over the south. Highs on Tuesday expected to be in the
morning, with temperatures falling off during the day under cold
advection. Will narrow the diurnal range of the guidance by
Wednesday and Wednesday night, given expected cloud cover and
precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
ECMWF depicts the upper flow during this period transition from a
departing trough on Friday toward a more zonal flow by Monday.
The strong mid week system is expected to exit the area by
Friday...leaving cyclonic lower level flow in place at the
surface. That flow appears to linger through Friday before giving
way to high pressure at the surface...building across the area
from the upper midwest. Thus have kept some low pops for Thursday
Night and early Friday with light amounts for possible wrap around
precip.
A few short waves look to pass during the course of the weekend
within the zonal flow aloft...but with high pressure remaining in
place at the surface...moisture appears limited. Thus have trended
toward a dry forecast through the weekend and into Monday.
NBM tries to inject pops on Monday...but with little support
indicated aloft...confidence is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 040300Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
Will have to add gusts to near 25 knots for all but KLAF as
discussed in NEAR TERM update.
Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 620 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020
A slow moving cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana
after 06z. Radar echoes suggest the rain showers could move in
earlier than expected, but latest obs continue to just show a 10K
foot ceiling and not precipitation reaching the ground. Still,
brought in VCSH earlier than the blend at 00z-05z.
Good confidence the flying conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and
below after 04z-07z as the front gets closer. Best chances of rain
will be after 07z-11z. This is when the blend brings in prevailing
rain, which looks reasonable.
Low level wind shear is likely through 07z as a low level jet moves
overhead.
Winds will shift from southwest to north and northeast behind the
front that will move through after 14z and earlier at KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...MK
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
Monday afternoon:
This afternoon, an upper level through is pushing out of the Rockies
and beginning to progress eastward. Ahead of the trough, weak lift
could bring some very small chances of drizzle this afternoon in far
southeast Nebraska. However, chances have quickly diminished over
the last few hours. Any saturation in minimal, with mid levels
remaining dry. A look at RAP soundings and RH fields show dry air
continuing to push in from the north and should essentially
eliminate any drizzle chances by this afternoon. Temperature have
also increased to just above freezing today in the southeast, so
any winter impacts are near zero. Additionally, Sunday`s pleasant
temperatures have likely led to warmer road temperatures which
will limit any impacts this afternoon. Because of these reasons,
have elected to cancel the winter weather advisory early.
Tuesday and Tuesday night:
Tuesday, expect the previously mentioned trough to move through
the area, bringing a chance of light snow to the southern half of
the CWA. The last several model runs have consistently pushed the
best moisture with the system to the south of out area, however,
still expecting to be on the northern edge of precipitation so
have kept a broad area of light snow in the forecast. Another
glance at model soundings showed more potential saturation issues
for Tuesday. Like the forecast today, the snowfall tomorrow will
be limited by a punch of dry air advecting from the north into the
mid-levels. The one good thing with this system are the
temperatures aloft. Models showing widespread 850 mb temps of -10c
where precip is expected. So thankfully this will be an all snow
event and none of that yucky wintry mix that we have seen a lot
this winter. With the limitations discussed, have kept snowfall
amounts around a half inch in far south Nebraska with lower
amounts farther north. Not expecting any accumulations north of a
line from Omaha to Columbus. Expect any lingering snowfall to
taper off Tuesday night.
For temperatures, Tuesday looks to be the coldest day of the week
with high temperatures around 25 degrees across much of the area.
Tuesday night lows are expected to drop back into the teens as well.
Wednesday and beyond:
Other than some lingering snow early Wednesday morning, expect a
dry forecast on Wednesday. Through the rest of the week, the upper
level trough will slowly move through the area. Additional
chances for light snow will be possible as a few shortwaves swing
through on Thursday and Sunday. Not expecting anything significant
with the late week system beyond some slight chances of light
snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020
Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible this evening, otherwise look
for mainly mid level clouds to prevail through the period. Winds
will remain brisk from the north.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
Updated to add areas of freezing rain and drizzle to the Highway
50 corridor from Pueblo, east to near La Junta. Area webcams are
iced up, especially in and around Pueblo. Radar indicates snow
filling in out west in Fremont County to Pueblo West, where snow
may be heavy this evening. Expect snow to fill in across the
region overnight. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
...Areas of freezing drizzle occuring in the greater Pikes Peak
region...
...Snow for all areas tonight. and VERY COLD with on and
off snow tomorrow...
Currently...
Areas of freezing drizzle are causing issues across the Pikes Peak
region as quite a few accidents have been reported, including cars
sliding off the US-50 into the Arkansas River. Over the remainder of
the plains it is just cold and overcast with temps holding steady in
the 20s to lower 30s. Over the higher valleys skies were generally
party cloudy, while along mtn tops it was overcast and it was
snowing in spots according to CDOT web cams.
Rest of Today into Tonight...
In the short term, main concern is the freezing drizzle in the
greater Pikes Peak region. This freezing precip will likely continue
until at least late afternoon before it changes to snow during the
later afternoon or early evening. Cant rule out some freezing precip
over the rest of the plains but T/Td spreads are still relatively
quite high the farther east you go. Areas primarily along the I-25
corridor should have the best threat of freezing drizzle the rest of
this afternoon.
Snow is near certain for most, if not all, of the region tonight.
Model trends of the HRRR has been showing increasing amounts on the
east slopes of the s mtns and I-25 corridor region and have tweaked
amounts up a bit. However these amounts may need to be increased
further if model trends continue. For now, 2-4 inches look like a
good bit along the I-25 corridor region with locally higher amounts
in the Monument Hill area, the Walsenburg area and Raton Pass
regions. Over the east slopes of the S mtns, 6 to 12 inches are
likely. Over the interior valleys, snowfall amounts will be less
with 1-3 inches likely. INterior mtns should see 2-6", with locally
higher amounts in the San Juans. Over the far eastern plains we
should see 1 to locally 3 inches of snow.
It will be cold tonight, but with the clouds and snow, it will not
be too cold. expect lows teens most of the plains with some single
digits over the Palmer Divide, single digits, both positive and
negative, will occur in the mtns and valleys.
Tuesday...
With the lingering mid level trough hanging back, I anticipate
periods of snow showers will continue across the region. It will be
cloudy and it will be very cold, with max temps only reaching into
the teens and 20s across the plains and valleys. Winds will not be
all that strong but any winds will make it feel even colder.
Apparent temperatures will be in the positive and negative single
digits, with readings in the negative 10s and negative 20s over the
mtns. Ridge lines will even be colder.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
Initially, accumulating snow is expected to be on a
decreasing/ending trend over southern Colorado Tuesday night with
an additional inch or so of snow expected(especially into the
evening) and favoring locations such as the Sangre De Cristo and
Wet Mountains as closed upper low located over northeastern
Colorado at sunset Tuesday shifts into central Nebraska by sunrise
Wednesday.
In addition, the coldest minimum temperatures of this Winter are
expected Tuesday night as well below seasonal early February
minimum temperatures 0F or colder are projected over nearly all
of the forecast district. Please take precautions in regards to
the projected very cold temperatures from Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
Latest forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer
simulations then support moderating temperatures and dry
conditions over the forecast district from Wednesday into
Thursday morning(outside of the Central Mountains, where
accumulating snow will be possible) as northwesterly upper flow
develops over southern Colorado.
Then, another round of unsettled meteorological conditions in
combination with generally below seasonal temperatures should be
realized from later Thursday into Friday night as next system(per
PV analysis/etc.) impacts the area.
A brief respite should then be noted this weekend with drier and
warmer conditions anticipated in advance of next system bringing
another round of changeable meteorological conditions as well as
colder conditions by next Monday as next system impacts southern
Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 344 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020
KCOS and KPUB...
IFR likely through tomorrow with some improving conditions later
tomorrow. Freezing drizzle will be an issue the remainder of this
afternoon at both TAF sites, but it should change to snow by late
afternoon or early evening. 2-4 inches of accumulations are expected
at both KCOS and KPUB with this event with the heaviest snow this
evening and early tonight.
KALS...
Conditions will deteriorate by early evening with the best chance of
snow late this evening through tomorrow morning. An inch or two will
be likely. Conditions should improve later in the afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST Tuesday for COZ086>088.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ072-073-
076>085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060-
066-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST Tuesday for COZ074-075.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY