Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/11/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
956 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
Going forecast remains in good shape. No changes needed for late
evening update.
UPDATE Issued at 614 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
Only change needed for early evening update was to increase cloud
cover, mainly over the west, as upper level clouds stream over the
upper level ridge over the Rockies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
The main theme for the short term will be the warming
temperatures. The surface warm front, responsible for upper 30s
temperatures across the far southwest early this afternoon, will
stall south and west of the Missouri River later this evening.
This will mean another cold night (although still warmer than
previous nights) is in store for areas north and east of the
river. Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 20s
southwest to the single digits below east. During the day Tuesday,
the warm front will quickly proceed east through the remainder of
the CWA, allowing for widespread afternoon highs in the 30s with
some 40s likely southwest.
Heading into Tuesday night, there have been consistent indications
by near-term model guidance, namely the HRRR and the NAM, that an
area of light precipitation (only trace amounts to a couple
hundreths of QPF) will move through the forecast area in
association with a weak embedded wave in the northwesterly flow
aloft. Despite this consistency, only non-mentionable PoPs have
been introduced into the forecast for the time being, due to low
confidence and the possibility for mixed precip types. This is
something that will need to be monitored, and if additional
guidance begins to pick up on precipitation occurring, PoPs will
need to be increased.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
Warmer temperatures linger through the beginning of the long term
as ridging builds in aloft. A series of waves riding over the
ridge will then bring occasional chances for precipitation and
slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend and into next
week.
For the most part, warmer temperatures will remain in place across
the area through Thursday. Forecast soundings indicate an area of
low level stratus may be present across central and eastern
portions of the area during the day on Wednesday, which would
limit how warm temperatures can get through the day, but this will
need to be re-evaluated as we get closer in time. The first and
most substantial looking wave of those mentioned above will bring
a clipper low through the area Thursday afternoon and into the
overnight. This will bring a chance for widespread precipitation
(better chances east), followed by slightly cooler temperatures.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be light with this system
due to its quick moving nature.
Model timing and magnitude differences make it difficult to get
too specific with the remaining forecast, but in general
occasional chances for precipitation are expected with passing
waves along with relatively steady to slowly decreasing
temperatures into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
VFR conditions will prevail. Low level will become a concern for
all locations this evening, continuing into Tuesday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...Gale
LONG TERM...Gale
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
433 PM MST Mon Jan 10 2022
.UPDATE...
Update to go ahead and initialize wind advisory start for current
time rather than wait for 06Z. Livingston Mission Field already
hitting criteria last hour (60 mph gust). BT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night...
The main focus of the short term remains wind. The strong ridge
remains in place over the area and will continue to be here
through the week. There will be a very weak shortwave that moves
through overnight. While no precipitation is expect from this, it
will serve to increase winds aloft. This would result in some
increased winds in downslope wind areas in and around the
foothills. In addition to these winds aloft, the pressure gradient
along the foothills will still be fairly strong, on the order of
15 to 20 mb, through the night. While it is still not the most
favored orientation, observations along the foothills this morning
were very close to or hit 58 mph. Local probabilistic guidance
show that the probabilities will be increasing over the next 12 to
18 hours. Given that with the lower probabilities and gradient
strength observations have already been touching criteria, will go
with a Wind Advisory through noon on Thursday for the Livingston
and Beartooth Foothills areas. The winds around Big Timber could
also be an issue, but it looks like if it is going to hit criteria
it would later, Tuesday night as another weak perturbation moves
through, so will not issue anything highlights yet, but will
continue to monitor. With that weak wave tomorrow, there is a
small chance for some light precipitation to drop down into the
Miles City and Baker areas tomorrow night into Wednesday. Most of
the CAMs keep everything dry, the HRRR is showing something.
Reimer
Wednesday through Sunday...
Overall, upper ridging tends to dominate the patter for the latter
half and into the weekend, with a series of weak, embedded
shortwaves that attempt to break it up an keep us with relatively
mild conditions.
Wednesday through THursday morning will continue to see high winds
along the foothills west of Billings, with highest confidence for
60+mph winds in the Livingston area, as the pressure gradient
continues to stay strong throughout this period. A shortwave and
associated cold front will pass through sometime on Thursday that
will quickly shut off the winds. Little moisture will be
associated with it, so while some light snow can be expected,
amounts will be minimal. Best chance to see accumulating snow will
be along the foothills of the Bighorn Mountains, as there are
hints of getting upslope flow along them.
Downslope warming will quickly return on Friday and Saturday to
bring temperatures back into the 40s, and maybe another shot at
higher winds in the LIvingston vicinity, especially Friday night
through Saturday. We look to get a clip of trough on late Saturday
and Sunday, but most moisture and cooler air looks to stay east of
MT.
Vertz
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours. Gusty SW-W winds
along the western foothills...with occasional gusts in excess of
40 knots at KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ will continue through the evening, with
winds around KLVM to K6S0 increasing overnight, occasionally
approaching 50 knots. Gusts of 25-35 knots will be felt as far
east as KBIL. While winds will remain light around KMLS, winds
aloft will be 40 to 50 knots, resulting in LLWS around 2000 feet.
Reimer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/041 029/046 033/048 030/041 024/044 024/040 025/043
00/N 00/B 00/B 22/S 00/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 023/041 030/047 032/048 025/039 021/043 021/039 024/041
00/N 10/N 01/N 21/B 00/N 00/B 01/N
HDN 017/041 022/046 026/048 027/038 018/042 020/039 019/042
00/B 00/B 01/B 33/O 00/B 10/B 01/B
MLS 021/038 025/041 026/043 025/034 015/039 019/032 015/034
00/U 10/B 01/B 22/S 00/B 00/B 01/B
4BQ 023/043 027/047 030/050 028/037 020/043 022/037 021/040
00/B 00/B 00/B 23/S 00/B 00/B 00/B
BHK 023/039 026/042 027/046 023/032 014/038 018/031 015/034
00/N 10/B 00/B 22/S 00/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 023/046 027/050 031/053 027/039 019/047 022/039 021/044
00/U 00/B 00/B 33/S 00/B 11/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
939 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The coldest air of the season so far continues to move in,
lasting through midweek. Closer to normal temperatures are
expected late week. A trough of low pressure will also bring
scattered snow showers to the region late in the week. High
pressure will bring dry and cold conditions to New England over
the weekend while low pressure passes by well off the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
940 PM Update...Performed a refresh over overnight temperature
and dew point trends using the 00Z HRRR as a guide with overall
little change in forecast thinking. Since I boosted gusts
through the morning just a hair... wind chills are a little
cooler, which necessitated the expansion of the wind chill
advisory into coastal Waldo county. Also gave a refresh of
PoP/Wx with light, lake-enhanced snow streams extending across
the southern Greens and into southern New Hampshire (and extreme
southern York Co ME). Accumulations will be light... but up to
an 1-2" will be possible where streamers track through the same
locations over the Monadnock Region... most likely in southern
Cheshire into western Merrimack counties.
615 PM Update... Just a couple minor tweaks to temperature
trends through this evening with the inherited overnight lows
intact. Also incorporated more HRRR into the wind gust forecast
which brings northwesterly downsloping gusts through the early
morning hours as Froude numbers continue to run high with strong
low- and mid- level CAA over the region.
Previously...
Current water vapor imagery shows upper level short wave south
of James Bay while current radar mosaic shows Lake Effect snow
showers from Lake Ontario spilling into western New England. The
upper level short wave will slide across northern New England
this evening pushing an Arctic front through the area. Mesoscale
guidance continues to show moisture from Lake Ontario being
infused into the Arctic front leading to scattered snow showers
across southern New Hampshire into extreme SW Maine late this
evening. Snow showers are ongoing in the White Mountains and
expect this activity to continue through early this evening.
Across southern New Hampshire into York County expectations are
for snow showers to spread west to east from 6 PM to midnight
with activity diminishing overnight. Mesoscale guidance has
trended down on snow squall parameters so current thinking is
the overall threat for snow squalls is low. Snow showers moving
over the area this evening will still be capable of reducing
visibility with accumulations expected to be a coating to an
inch.
After midnight tonight the Arctic boundary is progged to be
south of the NH/MA border with very cold air funneling into the
region by Tuesday morning. H8 temps will drop to 25 to 30C
below zero by tomorrow morning leading to temperatures well
below zero across the north and near zero across the south.
Northwest winds behind the front will be elevated enough
overnight into Tuesday to bring dangerous wind chills. Have not
made any changes to going wind chill headlines with areas
within the Wind Chill Warning expected to see apparent
temperatures down to 40 degrees below zero while areas in
Advisory will see apparent temperatures around 25 degrees below
zero. Areas near the coast will are expected to see wind chills
down around 15 degrees below zero, which is below the Advisory
threshold.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest winds are expected to be steady through Tuesday
morning continuing to bring dangerous wind chills through late
morning. Winds will subside tomorrow afternoon as high pressure
builds in from the west. Highs will struggle to get above zero
across the north and will struggle to climb out of the single
digits south. Tomorrow is expected to be one of the coldest days
we have seen in the past few years, but not record cold. For
example the forecast high at PWM is 7 degrees and the last time
the high did not get above 7 degrees at PWM was January 6th,
2018.
High pressure will crest over the area tomorrow evening before
shifting to our southeast overnight. Mostly clear skies and
light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly tomorrow
evening before return southwest flow kicks in overnight with
some increasing clouds towards Wednesday morning. This will
limit the full radiational cooling potential, however it will
still be cold with lows near or below zero across the south and
10 to 20 degrees below zero across the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures moderate back to near normal for Wednesday and Thursday
as the arctic high pressure that brought the early week cold moves
offshore. Return flow and a weak warm front will help to moderate
temperatures, and also bring the chance for a few snow showers
across northern areas. A chance of snow showers will continue across
northern areas on Thursday as a cold front approaches and crosses
the region late on Thursday and Thursday night.
Colder air will return for late in the week and weekend as a 1040mb
high builds across Ontario and Quebec on Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will likely start to moderate closer toward normal by
early next week, but overall temperatures are expected to remain
below normal.
With cold air firmly in place, all eyes are on a large ocean storm
expected to develop and deepen on Thursday and Friday. At this time
the ensemble consensus is that precipitation from this system
remains offshore, but remains too close for comfort at this time. If
there has been any trend in the models it has been to bring the
system slightly farther west, but not far enough yet to bring snow
into our forecast area.
This overall set up for this system is quite dynamic. Deep moisture
from the tropics and subtropics is drawn northward east of the
Bahamas as a shortwave trough dives southward through the Great
Lakes and into the Carolinas, developing a low pressure center
between North Carolina and Bermuda Thursday night. The low pressure
then rapidly deepens as it rides northeastward south of Nova
Scotia through Friday night, and then progresses through the
Canadian Maritimes on Saturday.
Currently the shortwave in play in still in the Gulf of Alaska, a
relatively data sparse region currently experiencing a plethora of
unsettled weather from multiple systems. It will still be about 24-
36 hours before this system enters the North American radiosonde
network, and likely won`t be until that time that both us
forecasters and the models have a better handle on the system.
In order to bring this system close enough for accumulating snow the
shortwave would need to be a little sharper, resulting in the low
pressure center taking more of a northwest jog offshore. Overall
this scenario is a low chance one, but remains on the table at this
time.
Another system is possible early next weekend, but there remains
very low confidence on any details with this system still being 6
days out, with many of the same uncertainties the Friday system
features.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Scattered snow showers this evening may bring brief
restrictions to KHIE, KLEB, and possibly towards KCON and KMHT.
However, due to spotty and brief nature of -SHSN confidence is
not high enough to put in the TAF. Elsewhere VFR is expected
through Tuesday night with any snow shower activity diminishing
after midnight.
Long Term... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through most of
the long term, except at HIE and northern terminals where MVFR
ceilings and scattered snow showers are likely Wednesday through
early Friday. Snow showers are possible early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Arctic front cross the waters tonight continuing to
bring SCA conditions through Tuesday due to gusty northwest
winds. As Arctic air pours over the waters moderate freezing
spray will be possible tonight into Tuesday. High pressure
crosses the waters Tuesday night allowing conditions to drop
below SCA thresholds briefly before SW flow picks up towards
Wednesday morning.
Long Term... Southwesterly gales are possible on Wednesday ahead of
a cold front. Conditions ease behind the front Wednesday night
and persist into Thursday night. A hurricane force low passes
outside the Gulf of Maine on Friday, possibly bringing storm
force northerly winds to the waters on Friday and Friday night.
SCA conditions likely persist through Saturday night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ012>014-
018>022-028-033.
Wind Chill Warning until noon EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009.
NH...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NHZ004-006>013-
015.
Wind Chill Warning until noon EST Tuesday for NHZ001>003-005.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
937 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
A warming trend will get underway over the next couple of days as
high temperatures climb into the 40s by Wednesday and Thursday.
The next significant chance for precipitation will hold off until
the end of the week when a weather system potentially brings
accumulating snowfall to parts of central Illinois late Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
High pressure will build into central Illinois from the west, with
the ridge axis directly over central Illinois later tonight. That
will create a very weak pressure gradient resulting in light and
variable winds. The only clouds expected overnight are some 10K FT
clouds approaching our northern counties from the north. It is
unclear how far south they will advance into our CWA. The RAP is
the only one picking up on that area of moisture, and it is
thinning out the clouds as they arrive and then shifting them
east. Those clouds could slow down the diurnal cooling overnight.
However, our coldest areas W-NW of Peoria will become clear in
time for lows to bottom out below zero. Dewpoints have already
dropped below zero at Peoria, with even lower dewpoints upstream.
Have lowered low temps across our northern counties by a couple
degrees. One caveat will be that if southeasterly winds develop
before sunrise, surface temps could begin to warm on the back side
of the departing surface ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
High pressure will settle into north-central Illinois this evening
before shifting into Indiana/Ohio by dawn Tuesday. With clear
skies and diminishing winds beneath the high, excellent radiational
cooling conditions will allow temperatures to rapidly fall after
sunset. Lows will be coldest over snow-covered areas along/north
of a Rushville to Bloomington line where single digits will be
widespread. Further south where no snow cover exists, readings
will bottom out in the teens. Once the high shifts out of the
region, southerly return flow will quickly develop on Tuesday.
With the pressure gradient tightening as the day progresses,
forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts of 20-30mph.
Thanks to strong southerly flow and ample sunshine, afternoon
highs will rebound well into the 30s...with lower 40s across the
far SW KILX CWA around Jacksonville. The coldest readings will
again be northwest of the Illinois River where melting snow cover
will keep readings in the lower to middle 30s around Galesburg and
Lacon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
A series of weak disturbances will track through the prevailing
northwesterly upper flow pattern this week. The first wave will
skirt across Illinois on Wednesday, bringing little more than an
increase in cloud cover. A second, stronger wave will arrive by
Thursday...with the NAM/ECMWF suggesting it may trigger some light
precip. Based on good model consensus, have added low chance PoPs
for a light rain/snow mix along/north of Galesburg...to
Decatur...to Robinson line during the day Thursday. With afternoon
highs topping out well into the 30s and 40s, any snow that falls
will melt.
By the end of the week, a vigorous short-wave trough diving
southeastward out of western Canada will approach from the
northwest on Friday. 12z Jan 10 models are in relatively good
agreement concerning the strength/timing of this feature, with the
GEM being the odd model out with a much faster solution.
Following the slower GFS/GEFS/ECMWF solution, yields rapidly
increasing cloud cover on Friday...with a rain/snow mix developing
mainly west of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon. Any snow
that falls during the day Friday will be inconsequential as highs
rise well above freezing. The time frame we will need to keep a
close eye on over the next few days will be Friday night into
Saturday morning when temperatures drop below freezing and precip
transitions to all snow. The exact surface low track is still
somewhat in question and will ultimately determine where the heaviest
precip falls. At this point, it appears a light accumulation of
snow will be likely across most of central Illinois by Saturday
morning...especially north of the I-70 corridor. Once the low
passes, a return to cool/dry weather is anticipated for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period. NW
wind gusts have generally subsided already, but sustained speeds
were still at or above 10KT. As high pressure builds into north-
central Illinois, winds will become light/variable from late
evening through the overnight hours before switching to S and once
again gusting 18-22kt by mid to late Tuesday morning. Wind speeds
will increase even higher toward mid-afternoon, with gusts of
26KT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1019 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM EST MON JAN 10 2022
High pressure is centered near the Iowa/Illinois border, with
about 5 kts of west to northwest winds keeping things just mixed
enough to keep temperatures from making a more dramatic drop off
thus far this evening. The latest RAP guidance seems to have a
better handle on the progression of the pressure gradient through
the night, as the NAM/GFS are somewhat higher on the pressure
across our area than the latest observations would reflect. As
such, have adjusted the low temperatures up a few degrees,
particularly within the deeper valleys in southeastern Kentucky,
where the gradient will linger the longest. Have only made a few
nudges further northwest, as dew points are still hovering in the
10 to 15 degree range. This will allow for a good potential for a
sharper pre-dawn drop off, as the pressure gradient relaxes more
across the northwestern half of our forecast area during that
time. Updates will be out shortly.
UPDATE Issued at 654 PM EST MON JAN 10 2022
Scattered to broken higher based cu is diminishing and exiting to
our east early this evening, leaving clear skies across eastern
Kentucky. High pressure will be building in more decisively across
the Ohio Valley through the night, allowing for temperatures to
drop into the teens at most locations in eastern Kentucky. For
now, will only be freshening up the hourly temperatures through
late this evening, incorporating the latest trend in the
observations. Otherwise, the forecast is on target.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 403 PM EST MON JAN 10 2022
KY has been in a bit of a pattern shift today, with the axis of
a very strong upper level trough in place across the state this
morning. This axis will continue to shift east of the state through
this evening, resulting in rising heights across the region, as
upper level ridging begins to advance from the SW. This will keep
strong NW to SE flow across the state through the overnight and even
into the day Tuesday, keeping cold air advection and cool
temperatures in place. Meanwhile, at the surface, a center of high
pressure is expected to move across the Commonwealth during the
overnight, leading to strong subsidence. The result will be good
radiational cooling under generally clear and dry skies. Sharp
ridge/valley splits in temperatures may also form. Tried to portray
this in the grids, but with a slight NW wind, didn`t drop some of
the NE valleys as far as if there had been a southerly flow which
seems to be best for decoupling in this area. In fact, we could see
some pretty sharp drops in the SW CWA based on the wind direction.
Currently have teens forecast across the region. The temperature
forecast will definitely be something to watch overnight.
By Tuesday, the center of the high pressure system will continue to
push east of the state, with winds shifting to a more return
southerly flow on the back side by the afternoon. NW to SE flow
aloft will also diminish. A subtle shortwave will develop just west
of the state Tuesday night, but otherwise expect generally zonal
flow. That being said, the flow across the central and eastern U.S.
will still originate from western Canada, so this doesn`t mean an
end to our colder temperatures. Despite sunshine and surface winds
becoming more southerly, temperatures will still only top out in the
mid 30s to around 40 degrees. The noticeable difference will be
during the nighttime hours Tuesday night, where increasing southerly
flow at the surface and the lack of strong subsidence overhead, will
keep temperatures from bottoming out quite as low as tonight. Lows
will generally be in the 20s. That being said, with a lack of clouds
and southerly flow, it is still likely that we will see some
ridge/valley splits, specifically in the favored NE valleys. So
another night to hone in on the temperature forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EST MON JAN 10 2022
Brief zonal flow will break down through the day Wednesday and
transition to west-northwesterly flow into Thursday as a trough
begins to dig out of the Upper-Midwest. Models are in disagreement
with the impacts to the forecast area. The ECMWF is a little more
aggressive with spreading widespread PoP across the area but the GFS
is keeping most of the CWA dry with the exception of upslope PoP in
the eastern mountains. The NBM seems to agree with the GFS solution
as isolated chances of precip is possible in the eastern mountains.
High pressure builds in behind the departing trough late Friday
night; however, the ridge is short-lived as a H5 circulation dives
out of central Canada through the day Saturday. Models are in
agreement with this system as the low digs south of the region
keeping the main impacts south of the forecast area. Mid-level
temperatures do favor the potential for rain-snow mix early in the
morning Saturday morning before transitioning to all rain through
the day Saturday as the system ejects out of the area. The remainder
of the period looks to remain in an active pattern with another
system possible for Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST MON JAN 10 2022
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight, before
shifting off to the east on Tuesday. This will result in mainly
clear skies across eastern Kentucky with VFR conditions
dominating. West to northwest winds of 5 to 7 kts will diminish
early this evening and become variable at around 5 kt or less
through the rest of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
844 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Similar to last night, some hires guidance like the HRRR have
trended warmer with overnight lows. However, with absolutely clear
skies and very low depoints, am reluctant to make any upward
adjustments to lows tonight. High pressure will build in after 06z
or so and as soon as the winds go light or calm, temperatures
will drop sharply. As such, the forecast is in good shape as far
as I am concerned and will make no changes.
CD
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. High pressure
builds into southwest Virginia and northeast TN towards daybreak
tomorrow so expect light and variable winds at KTRI, while NNE
winds develop at KTYS and KCHA. Skies should remain clear.
CD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 45 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 42 25 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 22 42 25 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 37 20 47 29 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$